NBA WED 032509 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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How's business? Man, such a shame...I guess it's just a difference in business philosophies...please send him my very best wishes...I hold no ill will...although I don't agree with his current chosen profession
is he selling picks now? I didn't know that -mentioned nothing to me in emails
Yesterday, Chump was on both doggies
Today, he's chalkin' it up
San Diego St. -3
Under 128
Stanford -3
Under 128.5
Today, he's chalkin' it up
San Diego St. -3
Under 128
Stanford -3
Under 128.5
Just a little something for those looking at the MIL/TOR total ... just wanted to throw it out there:
The ref crew is Mike Callahan, Zach Zarba and Eric Lewis. They are a combined 85-56 O/U this season, 20-14 when the posted total is 195-204.5.
The average total in games worked by Callahan, Zarba and Lewis is 201,199.7 and 200 respectively.
The ref crew is Mike Callahan, Zach Zarba and Eric Lewis. They are a combined 85-56 O/U this season, 20-14 when the posted total is 195-204.5.
The average total in games worked by Callahan, Zarba and Lewis is 201,199.7 and 200 respectively.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Saw this article on sport betting fables - here is one part:
Fable #1: Play against teams that have just returned home from a long road trip!
Teams that go out on the road for an extended period of time surely must not be focused in their first game back in their home city. I have heard people say that upon returning home, the players must be busy taking care of paying bills, going to the grocery store, having a rendezvous with the wife and/or girl friend, just about anything you can imagine that would help them have a letdown in that first game on their home court.
Since the beginning of the 2005 season, I looked at the results of teams in their first home game after a 4, 5, and 6 game road trip. At six games away, the result set was getting small so I did not look at longer road trips. I was encouraged when I found a small favorable trend to play against these teams back from a four-game road trip. It wasn?t earth shattering, but it was a 54.2% ATS edge, 77-65. Even more exciting at the first road trip I looked at was that there was a better trend in playing the Over in this situation, 83-60, 58.0%. If I get those type of results on a four-game trip, certainly the longer trips? results will be even better!
Nope, the results were as bland as most English foods. In fact, instead of playing against our returning team, the result set favored playing on them! Squads back from a five-game trip were 44-41 ATS and virtually exactly .500 OU. Six-games on the road didn?t have a negative effect on teams as they went 23-20 ATS in their first game home and 20-24 OU.
Obviously, it pays to know how many games away from home your team?s trip entailed.
Yeah, he's done...shutting it down it looks like. You know toe injuries are tough.
Wow, that huge number does seem a little more yummy.
Bro, you didn't know Turc went tout? About a week ago...what a mess it created and got him banned across the street
Exactly what I have, SDST might be tight on the side but the under is hugely solid, Stanford has 2 losses to Ore ST this year, but have played superbly in the tourney thus far on the road while Oreg ST has skated by in their 2 games. Under Pac 10 games is true form as Ore will have hard time putting 50 on the board.
4 solid plays there, imo, worst case scenario is 3-1 :mj06:
Thanks, didn't get around to that...but the 195-204.5 range is a bit skewed. Callahan is 7-1 O/U and the other two are each exactly .500 split. Still not the best crew.
Thank you for this.
Yeah I wish they would separate the categories to a finer margin, 10 pts in NBA is alot when discussing O/U's
Nice Ools...The query I ran was for this season only and actually got a boost when PHI manhandle POR MON. But I did run it for exactly 5 road games. I'm not sure what the numbers would be other than 5. I wonder how the numbers would come out for DD home favs. I see the line already dropped to single digits in the MIN/PHI side.
Thanks pal.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Ax, we have a wiener dog as well. Stubborn as hell I might add, but my wife loves her to death.
Ax, are you still looking at the under for this game or are you thinking of buying it back?
ax, what are your thoughts on new jersey +12 vs cleveland? cleveland has not won a game by over 10 points for a while now, and also have not been able to cover at home. what are your thoughts on this game?
Now you know what I go through...all 5 are feed home cooked dog food. With top grade meat. Spoiled!!!
What's her name?
As for Turc, and he maybe a great Tout worthy of your $$ and a nice guy.
Bet your own plays make money that way, hit 2 out of 3 and make a load. Why Tout!
Bet your own plays make money that way, hit 2 out of 3 and make a load. Why Tout!
I tried to find reasons why this goes over and the trends I'm finding are reinforcing my play or neutral. I'm going to wait for the rest of the pub (lest coast) to have their say and buy at an even better number.
Had I waited for DET last night, it would have been a hit. I got it early at O191. Everyone else I know here pushed or cashed. Tboss got out of work late, saw the play here and jumped on-board @O189.5 i think. Came in here congratulating me but I missed out.
:shrug:
No buying this back for me to answer your question.
I have a question for the forum.How much do you trust your sources for public betting percentages. Assuming that the original source ,even from a supposedly disinterested 3rd party, presumably must be a bookmaking establishment of some kind. There are various polls around but they may just represent some cavalier conjectures rather than actual betting. Also does the source delineate between amount of bets and betting dollar amounts?
I tend to reference several disparate sites with widely disparate results, some of which appear ridiculous on the face of it[example 96 per cent]. I can't shake the feeling that a lot of what comes to us over the net is being fed to us by the same source that we are trying to use it to gain advantage over. Seems there would be a conflict of interest there.
I tend to reference several disparate sites with widely disparate results, some of which appear ridiculous on the face of it[example 96 per cent]. I can't shake the feeling that a lot of what comes to us over the net is being fed to us by the same source that we are trying to use it to gain advantage over. Seems there would be a conflict of interest there.
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