NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !
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- Sep 10, 2018
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, February 2
St Bonaventure @ Dayton (-7.5)
St Bonaventure (13-7, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 83
Tempo: 269
Experience: 1
Continuity: 29
Bonnies won last two games, after a 1-4 skid.
Bonnies are 1-3 SU on A-14 road, 1-2 ATS as a road dog.
Bonnies are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time (#38)
St Bonaventure is 4-4 vs top 100 teams.
Dayton (17-3, 7-1)
KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 351
Experience: 81
Continuity: 190
Dayton won 14 of its last 15 games.
Flyers are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS as an A-14 home favorite.
Dayton is shooting 40% on arc (#7), getting 39.5% of points there (#12)
Flyers are 5-3 vs teams in the top 100.
Dayton won eight of last nine series games.
Bonnies lost their last five visits to Dayton.
A-14 home favorites of 7+ points are 9-6 ATS.
Fairfield @ Iona (-4.5)
Fairfield (12-8, 6-3)
KenPom rating: 181
Tempo: 109
Experience: 253
Continuity: 233
Fairfield won 11 of its last 13 games.
Stags are 4-1 SU on MAAC road, 2-0 ATS as a road dog.
Fairfield is #300 team in country on defensive boards.
Stags are 1-5 against teams ranked in top 100.
Iona (9-10, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 172
Tempo: 215
Experience: 168
Continuity: 352
Iona won three of its last four games.
Iona is 2-2 SU/ATS as a MAAC home favorite.
Gaels are forcing turnovers 22.9% of time (#8)
Gaels are 2-7 vs top 200 teams.
Iona (-5.5) won 78-67 at Fairfield December 1st.
Gaels won six in row, 9 of last 10 series games.
Fairfield lost its last 14 visits to New Rochelle.
MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-8 ATS.
Princeton @ Yale (-3.5)
Princeton (15-2, 3-1)
KenPom rating: 64
Tempo: 334
Experience: 275
Continuity: 90
Princeton is 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in Ivy League games.
Tigers are shooting 57.9% inside the arc (#10)
Princeton gets 38.6% of points on arc (#19) (35%, #118)
Tigers are 3-2 vs teams ranked in top 125.
Yale (13-6, 4-0)
KenPom rating: 88
Tempo: 314
Experience: 231
Continuity: 21
Yale won its last six games, after a 7-6 start.
Bulldogs won/covered all four of their Ivy games.
Yale is #38 team on defensive boards.
Yale is 1-4 against teams in top 150.
Yale won seven of last eight series games.
Tigers lost four of last five visits to New Haven.
Ivy League home favorites are 4-4 ATS.
Butler @ Creighton (-9.5)
Butler (14-7, 5-5)
KenPom rating: 54
Tempo: 152
Experience: 23
Continuity: 346
Butler won its last three games, scoring 84 ppg.
Bulldogs are 2-3 SU on Big East road (1-3 ATS road dogs)
Butler is 4-7 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Bulldogs are #214 team on defensive boards.
Creighton (16-5, 7-3)
KenPom rating: 18
Tempo: 254
Experience: 10
Continuity: 35
Creighton won seven of its last eight games.
Bluejays are 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS as Big East home favorites.
Bluejays are shooting 59.8% inside arc (#4)
Creighton is 7-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Creighton won five of last six series games.
Butler lost its last eight visits to Omaha.
Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 4-13 ATS.
Toledo @ Akron (-4.5)
Toledo (14-7, 8-1)
KenPom rating: 130
Tempo: 122
Experience: 170
Continuity: 197
Rockets won three in row, eight of last nine games.
Toledo is 3-1 SU on MAC road, 2-0 ATS as road dog.
Opponents are shooting 57% inside arc (#357)
Rockets are 0-4 in games vs top 100 opponents.
Akron (16-5, 8-1)
KenPom rating: 90
Tempo: 307
Experience: 25
Continuity: 69
Akron won eight of its last nine games.
Zips are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS as MAC home favorites.
Zips are shooting 55% inside arc (#31).
Akron is 1-4 vs teams ranked in top 150.
Toledo won eight of last 11 series games.
Rockets won three of last four visits to Akron.
MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 11-13 ATS.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, February 2
St Bonaventure @ Dayton (-7.5)
St Bonaventure (13-7, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 83
Tempo: 269
Experience: 1
Continuity: 29
Bonnies won last two games, after a 1-4 skid.
Bonnies are 1-3 SU on A-14 road, 1-2 ATS as a road dog.
Bonnies are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time (#38)
St Bonaventure is 4-4 vs top 100 teams.
Dayton (17-3, 7-1)
KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 351
Experience: 81
Continuity: 190
Dayton won 14 of its last 15 games.
Flyers are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS as an A-14 home favorite.
Dayton is shooting 40% on arc (#7), getting 39.5% of points there (#12)
Flyers are 5-3 vs teams in the top 100.
Dayton won eight of last nine series games.
Bonnies lost their last five visits to Dayton.
A-14 home favorites of 7+ points are 9-6 ATS.
Fairfield @ Iona (-4.5)
Fairfield (12-8, 6-3)
KenPom rating: 181
Tempo: 109
Experience: 253
Continuity: 233
Fairfield won 11 of its last 13 games.
Stags are 4-1 SU on MAAC road, 2-0 ATS as a road dog.
Fairfield is #300 team in country on defensive boards.
Stags are 1-5 against teams ranked in top 100.
Iona (9-10, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 172
Tempo: 215
Experience: 168
Continuity: 352
Iona won three of its last four games.
Iona is 2-2 SU/ATS as a MAAC home favorite.
Gaels are forcing turnovers 22.9% of time (#8)
Gaels are 2-7 vs top 200 teams.
Iona (-5.5) won 78-67 at Fairfield December 1st.
Gaels won six in row, 9 of last 10 series games.
Fairfield lost its last 14 visits to New Rochelle.
MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-8 ATS.
Princeton @ Yale (-3.5)
Princeton (15-2, 3-1)
KenPom rating: 64
Tempo: 334
Experience: 275
Continuity: 90
Princeton is 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in Ivy League games.
Tigers are shooting 57.9% inside the arc (#10)
Princeton gets 38.6% of points on arc (#19) (35%, #118)
Tigers are 3-2 vs teams ranked in top 125.
Yale (13-6, 4-0)
KenPom rating: 88
Tempo: 314
Experience: 231
Continuity: 21
Yale won its last six games, after a 7-6 start.
Bulldogs won/covered all four of their Ivy games.
Yale is #38 team on defensive boards.
Yale is 1-4 against teams in top 150.
Yale won seven of last eight series games.
Tigers lost four of last five visits to New Haven.
Ivy League home favorites are 4-4 ATS.
Butler @ Creighton (-9.5)
Butler (14-7, 5-5)
KenPom rating: 54
Tempo: 152
Experience: 23
Continuity: 346
Butler won its last three games, scoring 84 ppg.
Bulldogs are 2-3 SU on Big East road (1-3 ATS road dogs)
Butler is 4-7 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Bulldogs are #214 team on defensive boards.
Creighton (16-5, 7-3)
KenPom rating: 18
Tempo: 254
Experience: 10
Continuity: 35
Creighton won seven of its last eight games.
Bluejays are 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS as Big East home favorites.
Bluejays are shooting 59.8% inside arc (#4)
Creighton is 7-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Creighton won five of last six series games.
Butler lost its last eight visits to Omaha.
Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 4-13 ATS.
Toledo @ Akron (-4.5)
Toledo (14-7, 8-1)
KenPom rating: 130
Tempo: 122
Experience: 170
Continuity: 197
Rockets won three in row, eight of last nine games.
Toledo is 3-1 SU on MAC road, 2-0 ATS as road dog.
Opponents are shooting 57% inside arc (#357)
Rockets are 0-4 in games vs top 100 opponents.
Akron (16-5, 8-1)
KenPom rating: 90
Tempo: 307
Experience: 25
Continuity: 69
Akron won eight of its last nine games.
Zips are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS as MAC home favorites.
Zips are shooting 55% inside arc (#31).
Akron is 1-4 vs teams ranked in top 150.
Toledo won eight of last 11 series games.
Rockets won three of last four visits to Akron.
MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 11-13 ATS.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 16,534
- 13
- 38
NCAAB
Friday, February 2
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Trend Report
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Friday, February 2
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Trend Report
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FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| KENT at BUFF | 06:30 PM | BUFF +8.0 O 148.5 | +500 +500 |
| COR at DART | 07:00 PM | DART +10.5 O 151.0 | +500 +500 |
| PENN at BRWN | 07:00 PM | BRWN -2.0 U 138.5 | +500 +500 |
| FAIR at IONA | 07:00 PM | IONA -5.5 U 145.5 | +500 +500 |
| SBON at DAY | 07:00 PM | DAY -7.5 O 134.5 | +500 +500 |
| NIAG at SPU | 07:00 PM | SPU -3.0 U 132.0 | +500 +500 |
| SIE at RID | 07:00 PM | RID -10.0 U 137.0 | +500 +500 |
| MSM at MRST | 07:00 PM | MRST -2.0 O 129.0 | +500 +500 |
| CLMB at HARV | 07:00 PM | CLMB +7.0 U 149.5 | +500 +500 |
| PRIN at YALE | 07:00 PM | YALE -3.5 U 140.5 | +500 +500 |
| OSU at IOWA | 07:00 PM | IOWA -5.0 U 157.0 | +500 +500 |
| QUIN at MAN | 07:00 PM | QUIN -7.0 U 151.0 | +500 +500 |
| BUT at CREI | 09:00 PM | BUT +10.5 O 147.0 | +500 +500 |
| TOL at AKR | 09:00 PM | TOL +4.5 O 148.0 | +500 +500 |
| SJSU at NEV | 11:00 PM | SJSU +11.5 O 142.5 | +500 +500 |
Saturday’s 6-pack:
NHL leaders in plus/minus:
+34— Quinn Hughes, Van
+33— Filip Hronek, Van
+31— Gustav Forsling, Fla
+28— Dylan DeMelo, Winn
+23— Brandon Carlo, Bos
+22— Blake Coleman, Cal
Quote of the Day
“The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that, you’ve got it made.”
Jean Giraudoux
Saturday’s quiz
Bill Russell won two NBA titles as a player-coach with the Celtics; after he retired as a player, what other two NBA teams did Russell coach?
Friday’s quiz
Nuggets, Nets, Pacers, Spurs are the four NBA teams that used to play in the ABA.
Thursday’s quiz
Drew Bledsoe was New England’s quarterback before Tom Brady.
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National League
Diamondbacks
Arizona lost the World Series last year; in 2021-22, they finished a combined 92 games out of first place.
Adding lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez is a good move.
Braves
Atlanta has made the playoffs six years in a row, going 24-21 in playoff games.
Braves drew 3,191,505 fans last year, 5th in major leagues.
Cubs
Cubs were 83-79 LY, 7th time in last nine years they finished over .500.
Craig Counsell is the new manager; he was 707-625 in Milwaukee, 7-12 in playoff games.
Reds
Cincinnati starting pitchers had a 5.43 ERA LY; they need to use their surplus of infielders to add a starter or two in a trade.
Reds were minus-38 in defensive runs saved LY, worst in the National League.
Rockies
Kris Bryant makes $27M a year; in his first two years with Colorado, he played in 122 of a possible 324 games. He’s expected to play 1B this year; Rockies need him to be productive.
Rockies have had five straight losing seasons, since losing 3-0 to Milwaukee in ’18 playoffs.
Dodgers
Added Ohtani, Yamanoto, Glasnow, are prohibitive favorites to win the NL West.
Last three years, Dodgers won 317 games, but went 7-12 in the playoffs. They’ve been in the postseason 11 years in a row.
Marlins
Marlins were 84-78 LY, their first winning year in a 162-game season since 2009 (they went 31-29 in the shortened 2020 season).
3B Jake Burger hit .303 with an .860 OPS after being acquired from the White Sox LY.
Brewers
Their GM and manager both bolted; they just traded their ace pitcher, Corbin Burnes.
Milwaukee has been in playoffs five of last six years, but regression is expected this year.
Mets
Last year’s $346M payroll netted a 75-87 record, so this year, the Mets have a new manager and a new general manager.
Last three years, Starling Marte played in 120-118-86 games; they need more out of him.
Phillies
Bryce Harper is going to play 1B, so Rhys Hoskins bolted to Milwaukee. Rob Thomson is 174-129 as Phillies’ manager, 19-11 in playoff games.
Last year, Bryson Stott hit .433 (52-120) when the put the 1st or 2nd pitch of an at-bat in play.
Pirates
Pittsburgh hasn’t been in playoffs since 2015; their last winning season was 2018 (82-79),, their attendance last year was 1,630,624 (25th in MLB), their payroll was $68,945,975 (#29).
Pirates drafted LSU pitcher Paul Skenes #1 in LY’s draft; how fast will be climb the ladder to the major leagues? Bucs added P’s Marco Gonzales/Martin Perez to fill out this year’s rotation.
Cardinals
Last year was Cardinals’ first losing season since 2007; they still drew 3,241,091 fans (#4 in MLB). They added three older starting pitchers this year: Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn- will it be enough to make them a contender again?
C Willson Contreras had a .754 OPS in first half last year, then had a .959 in second half.
Padres
San Diego had a payroll of $256,045,688 last year (#3), they drew 3,271,554 fans at home (#2) but they needed a 20-7 finish to wind up with an 82-80 record. Padres were 9-23 in one-run games; no bueno.
Manager Bob Melvin is in San Francisco now, Juan Soto is in the Bronx, the team’s owner died in November. Expectations for this season are much lower.
Giants
Two years ago, the Giants went 107-55, 31-17 in one-run games. The last two years, Giants were 160-164, 47-46 in one-run games. Now, Bob Melvin replaces Gabe Kapler as manager, which figures to be an upgrade.
Giants signed Korean OF Jung Hoo Lee for six years, $113M; he is coming off a broken ankle.
Nationals
Washington won the World Series in 2019; since then, they’ve won 39.7% of their games, and dumped stars Bryce Harper/Juan Soto.
OF Lane Thomas hit 28 homers, stole 20 bases last year; hopefully they won’t trade him.
American League
Orioles
Orioles franchise was sold recently, then they traded for pitching ace Corbin Burnes; coming off a 101-61 season, things are looking up in Baltimore.
OF Cedric Mullins was a 30-30 guy two years in a row, but his OPS the last two years was .721/.721, not very good. He is a great centerfielder defensively, though.
Red Sox
Boston finished in last place three of last four years, despite spending $183M/season in payroll the last three years. Ownership told GM Chaim Bloom to take a hike.
Red Sox had MLB’s worst defense LY (minus-51 runs saved); they added P Lucas Giolito, who had a 6.96 ERA in 12 starts after the White Sox traded him last July. Giolito is thought to be much better than that; we’ll see.
White Sox
Chicago was 61-101 last year; they cleaned out the front office and half the coaching staff, but kept manager Pedro Grifol. If they trade P Dylan Cease, will they reap a haul of prospects?
White Sox brought in Brian Bannister to advise pitching coach Ethan Katz; they added C Martin Maldonado, who helped keep the Astros’ pitchers for years in Houston. White Sox will have their third hitting coach in three seasons.
Guardians
Terry Francona went 921-757 in 11 years managing Cleveland; he will be missed. Replacing him is Steven Vogt, who has never managed at any level- he was playing in the big leagues as recently as two years ago. Not an ideal situation.
3B Jose Ramirez is still productive, but his OPS has gone down three years in a row, and he’ll be 32 in September. Guardians had the #26 payroll last year, went 76-86. Not much optimism here.
Tigers
Detroit hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2014, their last winning season was 2016, but they ended last year on an 18-10 run; with Michigan winning the college football title and the Lions making the NFC Championship Game, there is positive energy in Detroit.
Tigers added Kenta Maeda/Jack Flaherty to bolster the rotation; Tarik Skubal had a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts LY, so Detroit’s starting pitching should be solid.
Astros
Houston has been in the playoffs seven years in a row,, winning two World Series; now they have a new manager (bench coach Joe Espada) but their roster is basically the same. Yainer Diaz is the new catcher, which helps the offense, hurts their defense.
Justin Verlander will be 41 soon, but his rebuilt right elbow is only 3 years old; Dusty Baker will be missed- he won consistently as a big league manager.
Royals
Kansas City won the 2015 World Series, haven’t had a winning season since; last two years, they went 121-203- their attendance last year was 1,307,052 (28th), their payroll $96,083,853 (#24), but the Royals have added some veteran free agents this winter, trying to improve.
Michael Wacha/Seth Lugo should improve their rotation, which got pounded last year. Brady Singer’s ERA went from 3.23 in 2022 to 5.52 last year. Royals used 13 outfielders last year, who combined for the 2nd-worst on-base %age of any outfield.
Angels
Ohtani moved 40 miles north, but the Angels never made the playoffs with him anyway; Halos haven’t made the playoffs since 2014- their payroll LY was $230,534,276 (#8). Anthony Rendon makes $38M a year for three more years; he’s played in 148 of the Angels’ last 486 games.
Ron Washington is the new manager; he’ll improve the infield defense. Chase Silseth was 3-0, 3.21 in seven second half starts LY. Angels’ rotation might still be pretty good.
Twins
Minnesota won AL Central with an 87-75 mark LY; they’ve made playoffs in four of last seven seasons, and won a playoff series LY for first time since 2002. Twins have cut their payroll due to their uncertain local TV situation, which could cost them a lot of $$$.
Twins traded 2B Polanco to Seattle for four prospects; Edouard Julien should replace him. Minnesota AL in both walks/strikeouts LY; they’re still the favorite in a weak division.
New York
Bronx Bombers have paid out over $3B in salary since their last World Series title in 2009; that’s billion, with a B. How does the general manager keep his job? New York went 82-80 LY, with a payroll of $278,651,150 (#2). How does the manager keep his job?
They added free agent-to-be Juan Soto this winter; will they pay to keep him long-term? Soto has a career on-base %age of .421. Can they fix Giancarlo Stanton? He hit .202 the last two years.
A’s
Just try to win, please? This is their last year in Oakland, then they’re going into exile for three years (Salt Lake City? Sacramento?) before the new stadium opens in Las Vegas in 2028.
Last two years, A’s went 110-214; they figure to be little better this year, adding Alex Wood and Ross Stripling to bolster the rotation. They’ve got a few decent younger position players, l but this figures to be the third dismal season in a row.
Mariners
Last three years, Seattle won 90-90-88 games, but missed playoffs LY, after ending a 21-year playoff drought in 2022. This winter, Mariners dumped 3B Suarez, RF Hernandez, LF Kelenic, trying to reduce strikeouts. Adding Jorge Polanco/Mitch Garver should fill those gaps.
Mariners’ attendance was 2,690,418 LY, but their payroll was only $134,466,903 (#18); with the Astros/Rangers dominating the division, going to be tough for Seattle to get back to the playoffs.
Rays
Tampa Bay has made the playoffs five years in a row, but they got swept in the Wild Card round the last two years. Their payroll last year was $78,354,272; by way of comparison, the Angels paid Trout/Ohtani/Rendon a combined $106M last year.
Over the last three years, Rays have the 4th-most wins in baseball; the players that win games in October are the players the Rays can’t afford to pay, but getting to the playoffs with the #27 payroll is still damn impressive.
Rangers
Texas won the World Series LY, in their first playoff appearance since 2016; Bruce Bochy is a great manager, a future Hall of Famer. Their 2B/SS make a combined $58M a year, but they earned that $$$ last year. Seager had a hernia surgery this week, is doubtful for Opening Day.
P’s Scherzer/deGrom earn a combined $83M a year; they’re both out until midseason. It is up to Eovaldi/Gray/Dunning to keep the rotation pasted together until the stars get back.
Blue Jays
Toronto made playoffs three of last four years, but went 0-6 in those playoff games; they’re still putting together their 2024 roster, but Justin Turner just signed, they added Yaniel Rodriguez before that, to help fortify their lineup.
Manager John Schneider may be running out of time; Toronto had the #9 payroll last year- you have the #9 payroll, you’re expected to win some playoff games.
NHL leaders in plus/minus:
+34— Quinn Hughes, Van
+33— Filip Hronek, Van
+31— Gustav Forsling, Fla
+28— Dylan DeMelo, Winn
+23— Brandon Carlo, Bos
+22— Blake Coleman, Cal
Quote of the Day
“The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that, you’ve got it made.”
Jean Giraudoux
Saturday’s quiz
Bill Russell won two NBA titles as a player-coach with the Celtics; after he retired as a player, what other two NBA teams did Russell coach?
Friday’s quiz
Nuggets, Nets, Pacers, Spurs are the four NBA teams that used to play in the ABA.
Thursday’s quiz
Drew Bledsoe was New England’s quarterback before Tom Brady.
********************************************
Saturday’s Den: Notes on every major league team
A note or two on every major league team:National League
Diamondbacks
Arizona lost the World Series last year; in 2021-22, they finished a combined 92 games out of first place.
Adding lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez is a good move.
Braves
Atlanta has made the playoffs six years in a row, going 24-21 in playoff games.
Braves drew 3,191,505 fans last year, 5th in major leagues.
Cubs
Cubs were 83-79 LY, 7th time in last nine years they finished over .500.
Craig Counsell is the new manager; he was 707-625 in Milwaukee, 7-12 in playoff games.
Reds
Cincinnati starting pitchers had a 5.43 ERA LY; they need to use their surplus of infielders to add a starter or two in a trade.
Reds were minus-38 in defensive runs saved LY, worst in the National League.
Rockies
Kris Bryant makes $27M a year; in his first two years with Colorado, he played in 122 of a possible 324 games. He’s expected to play 1B this year; Rockies need him to be productive.
Rockies have had five straight losing seasons, since losing 3-0 to Milwaukee in ’18 playoffs.
Dodgers
Added Ohtani, Yamanoto, Glasnow, are prohibitive favorites to win the NL West.
Last three years, Dodgers won 317 games, but went 7-12 in the playoffs. They’ve been in the postseason 11 years in a row.
Marlins
Marlins were 84-78 LY, their first winning year in a 162-game season since 2009 (they went 31-29 in the shortened 2020 season).
3B Jake Burger hit .303 with an .860 OPS after being acquired from the White Sox LY.
Brewers
Their GM and manager both bolted; they just traded their ace pitcher, Corbin Burnes.
Milwaukee has been in playoffs five of last six years, but regression is expected this year.
Mets
Last year’s $346M payroll netted a 75-87 record, so this year, the Mets have a new manager and a new general manager.
Last three years, Starling Marte played in 120-118-86 games; they need more out of him.
Phillies
Bryce Harper is going to play 1B, so Rhys Hoskins bolted to Milwaukee. Rob Thomson is 174-129 as Phillies’ manager, 19-11 in playoff games.
Last year, Bryson Stott hit .433 (52-120) when the put the 1st or 2nd pitch of an at-bat in play.
Pirates
Pittsburgh hasn’t been in playoffs since 2015; their last winning season was 2018 (82-79),, their attendance last year was 1,630,624 (25th in MLB), their payroll was $68,945,975 (#29).
Pirates drafted LSU pitcher Paul Skenes #1 in LY’s draft; how fast will be climb the ladder to the major leagues? Bucs added P’s Marco Gonzales/Martin Perez to fill out this year’s rotation.
Cardinals
Last year was Cardinals’ first losing season since 2007; they still drew 3,241,091 fans (#4 in MLB). They added three older starting pitchers this year: Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn- will it be enough to make them a contender again?
C Willson Contreras had a .754 OPS in first half last year, then had a .959 in second half.
Padres
San Diego had a payroll of $256,045,688 last year (#3), they drew 3,271,554 fans at home (#2) but they needed a 20-7 finish to wind up with an 82-80 record. Padres were 9-23 in one-run games; no bueno.
Manager Bob Melvin is in San Francisco now, Juan Soto is in the Bronx, the team’s owner died in November. Expectations for this season are much lower.
Giants
Two years ago, the Giants went 107-55, 31-17 in one-run games. The last two years, Giants were 160-164, 47-46 in one-run games. Now, Bob Melvin replaces Gabe Kapler as manager, which figures to be an upgrade.
Giants signed Korean OF Jung Hoo Lee for six years, $113M; he is coming off a broken ankle.
Nationals
Washington won the World Series in 2019; since then, they’ve won 39.7% of their games, and dumped stars Bryce Harper/Juan Soto.
OF Lane Thomas hit 28 homers, stole 20 bases last year; hopefully they won’t trade him.
American League
Orioles
Orioles franchise was sold recently, then they traded for pitching ace Corbin Burnes; coming off a 101-61 season, things are looking up in Baltimore.
OF Cedric Mullins was a 30-30 guy two years in a row, but his OPS the last two years was .721/.721, not very good. He is a great centerfielder defensively, though.
Red Sox
Boston finished in last place three of last four years, despite spending $183M/season in payroll the last three years. Ownership told GM Chaim Bloom to take a hike.
Red Sox had MLB’s worst defense LY (minus-51 runs saved); they added P Lucas Giolito, who had a 6.96 ERA in 12 starts after the White Sox traded him last July. Giolito is thought to be much better than that; we’ll see.
White Sox
Chicago was 61-101 last year; they cleaned out the front office and half the coaching staff, but kept manager Pedro Grifol. If they trade P Dylan Cease, will they reap a haul of prospects?
White Sox brought in Brian Bannister to advise pitching coach Ethan Katz; they added C Martin Maldonado, who helped keep the Astros’ pitchers for years in Houston. White Sox will have their third hitting coach in three seasons.
Guardians
Terry Francona went 921-757 in 11 years managing Cleveland; he will be missed. Replacing him is Steven Vogt, who has never managed at any level- he was playing in the big leagues as recently as two years ago. Not an ideal situation.
3B Jose Ramirez is still productive, but his OPS has gone down three years in a row, and he’ll be 32 in September. Guardians had the #26 payroll last year, went 76-86. Not much optimism here.
Tigers
Detroit hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2014, their last winning season was 2016, but they ended last year on an 18-10 run; with Michigan winning the college football title and the Lions making the NFC Championship Game, there is positive energy in Detroit.
Tigers added Kenta Maeda/Jack Flaherty to bolster the rotation; Tarik Skubal had a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts LY, so Detroit’s starting pitching should be solid.
Astros
Houston has been in the playoffs seven years in a row,, winning two World Series; now they have a new manager (bench coach Joe Espada) but their roster is basically the same. Yainer Diaz is the new catcher, which helps the offense, hurts their defense.
Justin Verlander will be 41 soon, but his rebuilt right elbow is only 3 years old; Dusty Baker will be missed- he won consistently as a big league manager.
Royals
Kansas City won the 2015 World Series, haven’t had a winning season since; last two years, they went 121-203- their attendance last year was 1,307,052 (28th), their payroll $96,083,853 (#24), but the Royals have added some veteran free agents this winter, trying to improve.
Michael Wacha/Seth Lugo should improve their rotation, which got pounded last year. Brady Singer’s ERA went from 3.23 in 2022 to 5.52 last year. Royals used 13 outfielders last year, who combined for the 2nd-worst on-base %age of any outfield.
Angels
Ohtani moved 40 miles north, but the Angels never made the playoffs with him anyway; Halos haven’t made the playoffs since 2014- their payroll LY was $230,534,276 (#8). Anthony Rendon makes $38M a year for three more years; he’s played in 148 of the Angels’ last 486 games.
Ron Washington is the new manager; he’ll improve the infield defense. Chase Silseth was 3-0, 3.21 in seven second half starts LY. Angels’ rotation might still be pretty good.
Twins
Minnesota won AL Central with an 87-75 mark LY; they’ve made playoffs in four of last seven seasons, and won a playoff series LY for first time since 2002. Twins have cut their payroll due to their uncertain local TV situation, which could cost them a lot of $$$.
Twins traded 2B Polanco to Seattle for four prospects; Edouard Julien should replace him. Minnesota AL in both walks/strikeouts LY; they’re still the favorite in a weak division.
New York
Bronx Bombers have paid out over $3B in salary since their last World Series title in 2009; that’s billion, with a B. How does the general manager keep his job? New York went 82-80 LY, with a payroll of $278,651,150 (#2). How does the manager keep his job?
They added free agent-to-be Juan Soto this winter; will they pay to keep him long-term? Soto has a career on-base %age of .421. Can they fix Giancarlo Stanton? He hit .202 the last two years.
A’s
Just try to win, please? This is their last year in Oakland, then they’re going into exile for three years (Salt Lake City? Sacramento?) before the new stadium opens in Las Vegas in 2028.
Last two years, A’s went 110-214; they figure to be little better this year, adding Alex Wood and Ross Stripling to bolster the rotation. They’ve got a few decent younger position players, l but this figures to be the third dismal season in a row.
Mariners
Last three years, Seattle won 90-90-88 games, but missed playoffs LY, after ending a 21-year playoff drought in 2022. This winter, Mariners dumped 3B Suarez, RF Hernandez, LF Kelenic, trying to reduce strikeouts. Adding Jorge Polanco/Mitch Garver should fill those gaps.
Mariners’ attendance was 2,690,418 LY, but their payroll was only $134,466,903 (#18); with the Astros/Rangers dominating the division, going to be tough for Seattle to get back to the playoffs.
Rays
Tampa Bay has made the playoffs five years in a row, but they got swept in the Wild Card round the last two years. Their payroll last year was $78,354,272; by way of comparison, the Angels paid Trout/Ohtani/Rendon a combined $106M last year.
Over the last three years, Rays have the 4th-most wins in baseball; the players that win games in October are the players the Rays can’t afford to pay, but getting to the playoffs with the #27 payroll is still damn impressive.
Rangers
Texas won the World Series LY, in their first playoff appearance since 2016; Bruce Bochy is a great manager, a future Hall of Famer. Their 2B/SS make a combined $58M a year, but they earned that $$$ last year. Seager had a hernia surgery this week, is doubtful for Opening Day.
P’s Scherzer/deGrom earn a combined $83M a year; they’re both out until midseason. It is up to Eovaldi/Gray/Dunning to keep the rotation pasted together until the stars get back.
Blue Jays
Toronto made playoffs three of last four years, but went 0-6 in those playoff games; they’re still putting together their 2024 roster, but Justin Turner just signed, they added Yaniel Rodriguez before that, to help fortify their lineup.
Manager John Schneider may be running out of time; Toronto had the #9 payroll last year- you have the #9 payroll, you’re expected to win some playoff games.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 16,534
- 13
- 38
NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Saturday, February 3
Saturday’s 5 interesting games
Houston (-1.5) @ Kansas
Houston (19-2, 6-2)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 352
Experience: 101
Continuity: 127
Houston won its last five games, giving up 57.6 ppg.
Cougars are 2-2 SU on Big X road, 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Cougars have #1 eFG% defense in the country.
Houston is 6-2 vs top 50 teams.
Kansas (17-4, 5-3)
KenPom rating: 15
Tempo: 111
Experience: 18
Continuity: 131
Kansas is 4-0 SU at home in Big X, winning by 2-12-5-29 points.
Jayhawks are 5-3 in games decided by 6 or less points.
Kansas is shooting 56.3% inside arc (#20).
Jayhawks are 6-2 vs teams in the top 50.
This is teams’ first meeting as Big X rivals.
Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-4 ATS.
Drake @ Indiana State (-5.5)
Drake (18-4, 9-2)
KenPom rating: 56
Tempo: 197
Experience: 141
Continuity: 144
Drake won six of its last seven games.
Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in MVC games.
Drake is #3 team in country on defensive boards.
Bulldogs are 3-0 against teams ranked in top 100.
Indiana State (9-10, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 172
Tempo: 215
Experience: 168
Continuity: 352
Indiana State is 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six games.
ISU is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS as a MVC home favorite.
Sycamores have #1 eFG% in the country.
Sycamores are 2-3 vs top 100 teams.
Drake (-3) beat Indiana State 89-78 at home January 10.
Drake won nine of last 11 series games.
Bulldogs won three of last four visits to Terre Haute.
MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-10 ATS.
Duke @ North Carolina (-4.5)
Duke (16-4, 7-2)
KenPom rating: 12
Tempo: 178
Experience: 214
Continuity: 25
Duke won 11 of its last 12 games.
Blue Devils have the #26 eFG% in the country.
Duke is 2-4 in games decided by 5 or less points.
Blue Devils are 6-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
North Carolina (17-4, 9-1)
KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 45
Experience: 7
Continuity: 185
North Carolina won 10 of its last 11 games.
UNC is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in ACC home games.
Tar Heels have #13 eFG% defense in country.
UNC is 4-3 against teams in top 50.
Teams split their last eight meetings.
Blue Devils won 3 of last 4 visits to Chapel Hill.
ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-10 ATS.
Tennessee (-1.5) @ Kentucky
Tennessee (15-5, 5-2)
KenPom rating: 6
Tempo: 102
Experience: 26
Continuity: 65
Tennessee won 11 of its last 13 games.
Vols are 3-2 SU in true road games this season.
Vols are 9-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Tennessee has #4 team eFG% defense in country.
Kentucky (16-5, 7-3)
KenPom rating: 24
Tempo: 14
Experience: 161
Continuity: 320
Kentucky split its last six games, after a 13-2 start.
Wildcats are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Wildcats have #12 eFG% in country.
Kentucky is 6-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Teams split their last 12 meetings.
Teams also split their last six games in Rupp Arena.
SEC home dogs of 4 or less points are 5-3 ATS.
Saint Mary’s @ Gonzaga (-3.5)
Saint Mary’s (17-6, 8-0)
KenPom rating: 30
Tempo: 356
Experience: 186
Continuity: 36
Gaels won nine in row, 14 of last 15 games.
Saint Mary’s is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
Opponents are shooting 43.1% inside arc (#9)
Gaels are 4-4 in games vs top 100 opponents.
Gonzaga (16-5, 8-1)
KenPom rating: 19
Tempo: 54
Experience: 145
Continuity: 217
Gonzaga won its last five games, scoring 88.4 ppg.
Zags are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS as WCC home favorites.
Zags are shooting 57.8% inside arc (#12).
Gonzaga is 5-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Gonzaga won 10 of last 12 series games.
Gaels lost their last five visits to Spokane.
Home team is 0-9 ATS in WCC games where spread was 7 or less points.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Saturday, February 3
Saturday’s 5 interesting games
Houston (-1.5) @ Kansas
Houston (19-2, 6-2)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 352
Experience: 101
Continuity: 127
Houston won its last five games, giving up 57.6 ppg.
Cougars are 2-2 SU on Big X road, 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Cougars have #1 eFG% defense in the country.
Houston is 6-2 vs top 50 teams.
Kansas (17-4, 5-3)
KenPom rating: 15
Tempo: 111
Experience: 18
Continuity: 131
Kansas is 4-0 SU at home in Big X, winning by 2-12-5-29 points.
Jayhawks are 5-3 in games decided by 6 or less points.
Kansas is shooting 56.3% inside arc (#20).
Jayhawks are 6-2 vs teams in the top 50.
This is teams’ first meeting as Big X rivals.
Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-4 ATS.
Drake @ Indiana State (-5.5)
Drake (18-4, 9-2)
KenPom rating: 56
Tempo: 197
Experience: 141
Continuity: 144
Drake won six of its last seven games.
Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in MVC games.
Drake is #3 team in country on defensive boards.
Bulldogs are 3-0 against teams ranked in top 100.
Indiana State (9-10, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 172
Tempo: 215
Experience: 168
Continuity: 352
Indiana State is 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six games.
ISU is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS as a MVC home favorite.
Sycamores have #1 eFG% in the country.
Sycamores are 2-3 vs top 100 teams.
Drake (-3) beat Indiana State 89-78 at home January 10.
Drake won nine of last 11 series games.
Bulldogs won three of last four visits to Terre Haute.
MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-10 ATS.
Duke @ North Carolina (-4.5)
Duke (16-4, 7-2)
KenPom rating: 12
Tempo: 178
Experience: 214
Continuity: 25
Duke won 11 of its last 12 games.
Blue Devils have the #26 eFG% in the country.
Duke is 2-4 in games decided by 5 or less points.
Blue Devils are 6-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
North Carolina (17-4, 9-1)
KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 45
Experience: 7
Continuity: 185
North Carolina won 10 of its last 11 games.
UNC is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in ACC home games.
Tar Heels have #13 eFG% defense in country.
UNC is 4-3 against teams in top 50.
Teams split their last eight meetings.
Blue Devils won 3 of last 4 visits to Chapel Hill.
ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-10 ATS.
Tennessee (-1.5) @ Kentucky
Tennessee (15-5, 5-2)
KenPom rating: 6
Tempo: 102
Experience: 26
Continuity: 65
Tennessee won 11 of its last 13 games.
Vols are 3-2 SU in true road games this season.
Vols are 9-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Tennessee has #4 team eFG% defense in country.
Kentucky (16-5, 7-3)
KenPom rating: 24
Tempo: 14
Experience: 161
Continuity: 320
Kentucky split its last six games, after a 13-2 start.
Wildcats are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Wildcats have #12 eFG% in country.
Kentucky is 6-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Teams split their last 12 meetings.
Teams also split their last six games in Rupp Arena.
SEC home dogs of 4 or less points are 5-3 ATS.
Saint Mary’s @ Gonzaga (-3.5)
Saint Mary’s (17-6, 8-0)
KenPom rating: 30
Tempo: 356
Experience: 186
Continuity: 36
Gaels won nine in row, 14 of last 15 games.
Saint Mary’s is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
Opponents are shooting 43.1% inside arc (#9)
Gaels are 4-4 in games vs top 100 opponents.
Gonzaga (16-5, 8-1)
KenPom rating: 19
Tempo: 54
Experience: 145
Continuity: 217
Gonzaga won its last five games, scoring 88.4 ppg.
Zags are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS as WCC home favorites.
Zags are shooting 57.8% inside arc (#12).
Gonzaga is 5-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Gonzaga won 10 of last 12 series games.
Gaels lost their last five visits to Spokane.
Home team is 0-9 ATS in WCC games where spread was 7 or less points.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 16,534
- 13
- 38
NCAAB
Saturday, February 3
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Saturday, February 3
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