New Picks Thread (all sports)

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 10/17/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -34,930)

Pick: GREEN BAY -3 (Miami) -104, risking 1040 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: PHILADELPHIA -1' (Atlanta) -107, risking 1070 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: 4teaser (12' points):
HOUSTON +8 (Kansas City)
NEW ENGLAND +11' (Baltimore)
PHILADELPHIA +12' (Atlanta)
GREEN BAY +10 (Miami)
risking 1000 to win 870 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Baltimore-New England 41 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (3-0 1q 6m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Dallas -115 (Minnesota), risking 1150 to win 1000 (9m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Dallas-Minnesota 44 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-0 1q) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Dallas-Minnesota 46' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-7 2q 10m) :0074

Pick: PHILADELPHIA +2 (San Francisco) -410, risking 1640 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Indianapolis-Washington 44 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Washington 45 under -110, risking 550 to win 500 (7-0 1q 9m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Washington 49' under -110, risking 550 to win 500 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Washington 50 under -110, risking 550 to win 500 (14-7 2q 7m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: PHILADELPHIA -500 (San Francisco), risking 1500 to win 300 (1-2) (start bottom 6) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Washington 57' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (24-14 3q 9m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Washington 55 under +120, risking 1000 to win 1200 (24-17 3q 3m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Washington 44' under +235, risking 500 to win 1175 (27-17 4q 8m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis -800 (Washington), risking 1600 to win 200 (27-24 4q 2m) :0074

(ledger: -36,600)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Monday 10/18/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -36,600)

Pick: Gimeno-Traver-Ryderstedt 21' under -125, risking 1250 to win 1000 :sadwave: (22)

Pick: Wawrinka -335 (Seppi), risking 1005 to win 300 :0074

Pick: A. Bondarenko-Gavrilova 18' under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave: (19)

POST-analysis: punished by taking this number at wrong time, it dropped from 19' to 18' and ended on 19.

Pick: Troicki -3 (Tursunov) -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 PUSH

Pick: Razzano-Keothvang 21 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074 (17)

Pick: Nieminen-Berrer 23 under -128, risking 1280 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Tursunov-Troicki 22' under +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: YANKEES +1' (Texas) -170, risking 1700 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: YANKEES +1 (Texas) -135, risking 1350 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: YANKEES +4 (Texas) -647, risking 1941 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: YANKEES -2 (Texas) +263, risking 1000 to win 2630 :sadwave:

Pick: YANKEES -4 (Texas) +556, risking 1000 to win 5560 :sadwave:

PRE-analysis: yanks either get up from start or blow it up late

Pick: LIVE: YANKEES +2 (Texas) +100, risking 500 to win 500 (2-0 into top 3) :sadwave:

(ledger: -47,521)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Tuesday 10/19/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -47,521)

Pick: Dolgopolov-Belyaev 23 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
Dementieva -1000 (Peng)
Kirilenko -275 (Dulgheru)
risking 1121 to win 561 :0074

Pick: Bellucci-Blake 23 under -128, risking 1280 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Haase-Prpic 22' under -114, risking 1140 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Philadelphia +1 (San Francisco) -182, risking 1820 to win 1000 :sadwave:

(ledger: -50,250)

Pick: YANKEES -1 (Texas) -124, risking 1240 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: SECOND INNING: YANKEES -155 (Texas), risking 620 to win 400 :0074

Pick: LIVE: SIXTH INNING: YANKEES -155 (Texas), risking 620 to win 400 :sadwave:

(ledger: -51,710)

 

[CapMan]

love this one tonight

Maximo Gonzalez +350

 

[GoldenTaint]

love this one tonight

Maximo Gonzalez +350

any reason?

 

[CapMan]

I think Golubev is starting to wear down from a long season that saw him go far in several tournaments. You would think his game would be made for the hard surface but he has 5 first round losses. He played a rusty Maximo in July and crushed him on Clay and then again in August and was pushed to 3 sets. Maximo has the tools to frustrate him and I think 3rd time is the charm. Can't see any reason why Golubev should be -500 vs anyone. Especially coming off a retirement two weeks ago and another 1st rd L to Janko. I think he's shut it down for the season and needs a break mentally while Maximo wants to build momentum for 2011.

 

[GoldenTaint]

I think Golubev is starting to wear down from a long season that saw him go far in several tournaments. You would think his game would be made for the hard surface but he has 5 first round losses. He played a rusty Maximo in July and crushed him on Clay and then again in August and was pushed to 3 sets. Maximo has the tools to frustrate him and I think 3rd time is the charm. Can't see any reason why Golubev should be -500 vs anyone. Especially coming off a retirement two weeks ago and another 1st rd L to Janko. I think he's shut it down for the season and needs a break mentally while Maximo wants to build momentum for 2011.

Could be. Had some good luck on Golubev this year, hesitant to go against him, but your reasoning makes sense.

 

[CapMan]

I agree..I won every rd with Golubev during the German Open and at very nice + prices in the final 4 rounds, but Maximo isn't a scrub, he is coming back from some injuries. The majority of Golubev's quality wins are on clay. We'll see..could be way off but can't pass the price.

A smaller dog I love is Hanescu over Stepanek at +170. In fact I see a lot of dogs winning early rounds today, Blake, Kukushkin and Mandy Minella and Olga Govortsova on the ladies side.

 

[GoldenTaint]

six months of observations - here's the best basic strategy for betting tennis ii can come up with:

- focus on unders at all times.
- don't back favs on ml until they have played at least two matches
- flyers on big dogs are justified in the first couple rounds since many times name players don't show up for circumstantial reasons (off injury, off layoff, off tournament win last week, switching surfaces)
- the vast, vast majority of dogs win outright rather than cover the games spread but lose, particularly in women's, so:
- bet favorites minus games
- bet dogs on ML

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Wednesday 10/20/10 picks in this post - shifting strategy starting today)

(ledger: -51,710)

Pick: A. Bondarenko -2' (Sanchez) -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Goerges -4' (Navarro) +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: 6parlay:
Tipsarevic -440 (Zeballos) LOSS
Kamke -168 (Hajek) WIN
Kubot -137 (Bachinger) LOSS
Wawrinka -820 (Haase) WIN
Berdych -220 (Nieminen) LOSS
Goerges -299 (Navarro) WIN
risking 200 to win 1275 :sadwave:

Pick: Berdych -3' (Nieminen) +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: 3parlay:
Berdych -223 (Nieminen) LOSS
Davydenko -495 (Cuevas) LOSS
Ivanovic -1100 (Larsson) WIN
risking 1000 to win 900 :sadwave:

NOTE: not sure what is wrong with Berdych, but he has not been competitive for months

Pick: Flipkens +150 (Rezai), risking 1000 to win 1500 :0074

Pick: Ivanovic -6 (Larsson) -110, risking 550 to win 500 :0074

Pick: Ivanovic-Larsson 18' under -120, risking 600 to win 500 :0074

Pick: Errani +140 (A. Kleybanova), risking 1000 to win 1400 :sadwave:

Pick: Ryderstedt +410 (Mayer), risking 200 to win 820 :sadwave:

Pick: Ryderstedt-Mayer 21' under -130, risking 1300 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: YANKEES +1' (Texas) -300, risking 1200 to win 400 :0074

Pick: LIVE: SECOND INNING: YANKEES -155 (Texas) -155, risking 310 to win 200 :0074

(ledger: -51,060)

Pick: Philadelphia +3 (San Francisco) -445, risking 890 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Chicago +3 (Toronto) -110, risking 550 to win 500 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Philadelphia +1' (San Francisco) -145, risking 290 to win 200 (0-1 start b2) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Philadelphia-San Francisco 10 under -115, risking 450 to win 300 (4-3, start 6th) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Philadelphia -105 (San Francisco), risking 525 to win 500 (5-5 start 9th) :sadwave:

(ledger: -51,135)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Thursday 10/21/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -51,135)

NOTE: lots of tennis coming up, will have several picks.

Pick: Kamke -110 (Dodig), risking 1100 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Kamke-Dodig 23' under +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Bachinger +195 (Blake), risking 300 to win 585 :sadwave:

Pick: Golubev -135 (Kunitsyn), risking 1350 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Crivoi-Zeballos 23 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Kirilenko -4' (K. Bondarenko) -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Kirilenko -339 (K. Bondarenko), risking 1017 to win 300 :0074

why: think there is no more than 1/10 chances kirilenko loses this match

Pick: 5parlay:
Jankovic -565 (Zarina) LOSS
Kirilenko -339 (K. Bondarenko) WIN
Chakvetadze -391 (Koryttseva) WIN
Ivanovic -1850 (Santonja) WIN
Schnyder -355 (Keothavong) LOSS
risking 200 to win 317 :sadwave:

Pick: Chakvetadze-Koryttseva 19 under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Ivanovic -7 (Santonja) -135, risking 685 to win 500 PUSH

Pick: Federer -1600 (Dent), risking 1600 to win 100 :0074

Pick: Tsonga-Troicki 23' under -118, risking 1180 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Hantuchova-Kerber 20' under -115, risking 1150 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Soderling -660 (Becker), risking 1320 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Soderling -5 (Becker) +115, risking 300 to win 345 :0074

Pick: Soderling-Becker 21 under -125, risking 1250 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Philadelphia -114 (San Francisco), risking 1140 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: TEAM TOTAL: San Francisco 4 under -280 (Philadelphia), risking 1120 to win 400 :0074

Pick: LIVE: SECOND INNING: Philadelphia -120 (San Francisco), risking 1200 to win 1000 PUSH

Pick: LIVE: FOURTH INNING: Philadelphia -126 (San Francisco), risking 1260 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: EIGHTH INNING: Philadelphia -110 (San Francisco), risking 550 to win 500 PUSH

Pick: LIVE: UCLA-Oregon 63 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-14 start 2q) :sadwave:

(ledger: -54,350)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Friday 10/22/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -54,350)

Pick: Stepanek -3 (Cuevas) -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Federer -600 (Wawrinka)
Soderling -595 (Mayer)
risking 1000 to win 363 :sadwave:

Pick: Baghdatis -160 (Dolgopolov), risking 800 to win 500 :0074

Pick: Flipkens +141 (Vinci), risking 1000 to win 1410 :sadwave:

Pick: Flipkens-Vinci 21' under -145, risking 1450 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: South Florida-Cincinnati 48 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Yankees -104 (Texas), risking 1040 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Yankees +4 (Texas) -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 (1-5 start bottom 7th) :sadwave:

(ledger: -59,190)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Saturday 10/23/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -59,190)

Pick: Notre Dame -250 (Navy), risking 1000 to win 400 :sadwave:

Pick: Wisconsin-Iowa 47 under -108, risking 1080 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Oklahoma-Missouri 53 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

(ledger: -62,320)

 

[CapMan]

Troicki is going to slay Cypriot..Istomin handed him the match. Also love Kirilenko to top Azarenko and consider Vinci a live dog vs Goerges.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Troicki is going to slay Cypriot..Istomin handed him the match. Also love Kirilenko to top Azarenko and consider Vinci a live dog vs Goerges.

Agree on Kirilenko, at the least it will be very close. She's on a mission to win and has said as much. But Azarenka is no joke, has beaten Wozniacki. No opinion on Baghdatis, could see that either way. I think Goerges will beat Vinci. Vinci fights, but she's not really that good, and I think Goerges is on the way up. Am kicking myself for not betting Kirilenko more this week, she has dominated every match, and much of the year. I think I've only lost on her once or twice and won many times.

 

[CapMan]

kirilenko fell apart had the 2nd set and match in her favor and just tightend up.

 

[CapMan]

Troicki prevails in 3 sets..really took control of the match. Love that kids game. Vinci up a set..Federer overcame an early break...I foolishly put some on Mayer.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Troicki prevails in 3 sets..really took control of the match. Love that kids game. Vinci up a set..Federer overcame an early break...I foolishly put some on Mayer.

Made unposted bets on Goerges and Kirilenko, both lost and would have bet on Bags and lost too. Mayer's been playing great lately, gone against him and lost 3-4 times. Goerges had some problem today, I think she'll beat Vinci pretty easily in the future.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 10/24/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -62,320)

Pick: LIVE: Pittsburgh-Miami 41 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-6 1q) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Pittsburgh-Miami 50 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (20-19 3q 1m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: New England-San Diego 47 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-3 start 2q) :0074

Pick: Minnesota-Green Bay 43' under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: GREEN BAY -3 (Minnesota) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-0 1q 7:35) :0074

Pick: LIVE: GREEN BAY -200 (Minnesota), risking 2000 to win 1000 (17-21 3q) :0074

(ledger: -60,470)

 

[CapMan]

Kukushkin over Chardy
Roger-Vasselin over Gil