New Picks Thread (all sports)

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 11/7/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -59,672)

Pick: Chicago-Buffalo 41' under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Miami-Baltimore 41 under -107, risking 1070 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: DETROIT +6 (Jets) -109, risking 1090 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Miami-Baltimore 50 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-7 1q 5m) :0074

Pick: Indianapolis +3 (Philadelphia) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Indianapolis +140 (Philadelphia), risking 1000 to win 1400 :sadwave:

why: It's a mistake to play Vick ahead of Kolb, and it's being done for political rather than football reasons.

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Philadelphia 50 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-10 1q 5:41) PUSH

Pick: LIVE: Indianapolis-Philadelphia 51 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-13 1q 2:21) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Dallas-Green Bay 40' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-0 1q 5:29) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Dallas-Green Bay 58 under -110, risking 1650 to win 1500 (35-7 3q 8m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: GREEN BAY -25 (Dallas) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (35-7 3q 8m) :0074

why: give gb one more score, one more score from freak play or mistake, then run out clock. didnt work in 1h, might work mid-3q

(ledger: -53,272)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Monday 11/8/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -53,272)

Pick: Starace +4 (Llodra) -125, risking 1250 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Starace +275 (Llodra), risking 200 to win 550 :sadwave:

Pick: De Bakker -137 (Giraldo), risking 1370 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: De Bakker-Giraldo 23' under -130, risking 1300 to win 1000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: de bakker seemed sluggish, thought he might be sandbagging, had plenty of chances to win this in two sets rather than lose in three. giraldo is decent but certainly beatable, de bakker was missing the lines today.

Pick: Wawrinka -4' (Ouanna) +115, risking 1000 to win 1150 :0074

Pick: Wawrinka-Ouanna 20' under -103, risking 1030 to win 1000 :sadwave: (21)

Pick: Mahut-Gasquet 22 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Gasquet -4 (Mahut) -122, risking 1220 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Gasquet -380 (Mahut) WIN
Wawrinka -450 (Ouanna) WIN
risking 1000 to win 544 :0074

OBSERVATION: gasquet is an unusual player. most players you get what you see - they play hard on each point until they have a rational reason to kick back, say they're winning easily, or need to save energy for the next set. gasquet wins first set 7-5. he barely returned a ball in during the first four games of mahut's serve. partly because mahut serves well, but also because he was sandbagging. then in mahut's fifth serve he came on. didn't break, but came close. then in mahut's next serve he did break. it could be that he was simply getting used to mahut's serve through the first few games, but i think he was deliberately holding back to increase the effect when he could seize the set with one break.

POST-analysis: should have followed my own rules, with the Wawrinka still to play. Today's ass-kicking backed the general strategy i departed from today - stay off sides until there are 32 or even only 16 left. the opening two rounds should be focused on picking unders, and if you take sides, either take fliers on upsets, small and large, or, if you're going to take favorites, couple them in small 2-3 huge-favorite parlays.

Pick: 2teaser (9 points)
CINCINNATI +14 (Pittsburgh)
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 50' under
risking 1000 to win 556 :0074

Pick: Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 41' under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 43' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (10-0 1q 2m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: CINCINNATI +13' (Pittsburgh) -170, risking 1700 to win 1000 (27-14 4q 13m) :0074

(ledger: -59,582)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Tuesday 11/9/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -59,582)

Pick: Stepanek -200 (Almagro), risking 2000 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Becker +410 (Monfils), risking 1000 to win 4100

Pick: Becker +4' (Monfils) -125, risking 1250 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Berdych -3 (Serra) -122, risking 1220 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Berdych-Serra 22' under -135, risking 1350 to win 1000 :0074

NOTE: dislike becker more than any other men's player. he is weakminded as hell, only took him today on intuition that monfils would have a letdown. he did. was down 1-5 in first set, but the typically weak-minded becker let him back in to take the match in straight sets, and was lucky to get the games cover.

Pick: Toledo-Northern Illinois 51 under -107, risking 1070 to win 1000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: the third quarter of this game seemed to take about five hours to play. good shot on under at ht, dead halfway thru 3q.

(ledger: -57,652)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Wednesday 11/10/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -57,652)

Pick: Nieminen +260 (Roddick), risking 1000 to win 2600 :sadwave:

Pick: Nieminen +3' (Roddick) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :sadwave:

NOTE: didn't see this, very surprised at the blowout.

Pick: Nalbandian +3 (Murray) -102, risking 1020 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Davydenko -200 (Bellucci), risking 2000 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Isner +104 (Llodra), risking 1000 to win 1040 :sadwave:

Pick: Isner-Llodra 24' under +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :0074

Pick: Bryan/Bryan -550 (Cilic/Ljubicic), risking 1100 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Soderling -3 (Simon) -135, risking 1350 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Soderling-Simon 22' under -114, risking 1140 to win 1000 :0074

(ledger: -55,502)

Pick: LIVE: Miami Ohio-Bowling Green 48 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-0 1q 11:05) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Miami Ohio -6' (Bowling Green) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-0 1q 4:58) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Miami Ohio-Bowling Green 46' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-0) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Miami Ohio -145 (Bowling Green) -110, risking 1450 to win 1000 (7-7 2q 8m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Miami Ohio-Bowling Green 42 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 (21-7 start 4q) :sadwave:

(ledger: -54,802)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Thursday 11/11/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -54,802)

Pick: Gulbis +4 (Roddick) -126, risking 1260 to win 1000 PUSH

Pick: Soderling-Wawrinka 23 under -115, risking 1150 to win 1000 :0074

(ledger: -53,802)

NOTE: looking forward to berdych match coming up, i think he has regained form, judging by last match, and will beat davydenko at odds on.

Pick: Berdych +115 (Davydenko), risking 1000 to win 1150 :sadwave:

Pick: Berdych +125 (Davydenko), risking 1000 to win 1250:sadwave:

Pick: Berdych-Davydenko 23' under -115, risking 1150 to win 1000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: super weak by berdych, he may win 3rd but had every chance to close this out in 2. ... One of the toughest losses of the year. Berdych has something in his makeup that just can't quite handle the toughest parts of a match. Should have won in 2 sets but breaks down a point from match, barely wins a point in set three.


Pick: Stepanek +5 (Federer) +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 PUSH

Pick: Murray -395 (Cilic), risking 1580 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Murray-Cilic 21' under +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :sadwave:

PRE-analysis: I hate Murray. Murray is wildly, yes wildly, overrated. Personally I doubt he will win more majors than Michael Chang. Might not win as many. (That's 1 for you pokes of slowness.)

Pick: LIVE: Pittsburgh-Connecticut 54 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: CONNECTICUT +3' (Pittsburgh) -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 (7-7 start 2q start) :0074

Pick: LIVE: CONNECTICUT +170 (Pittsburgh), risking 1000 to win 1700 (7-10 2q 13m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: ATLANTA -1200 (Baltimore), risking 1200 to win 100 (7-20 4q 11m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Los Angeles-Denver 221 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (44-46 2q 5:44) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Los Angeles-Denver 233' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (87-76 3q 4m) :0074

(ledger: -55,952)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Friday 11/12/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -55,952)

Pick: Llodra-Davydenko 23' under -118, risking 1180 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Davydenko -328 (Llodra), risking 1312 to win 400 (4-3) :sadwave:

Pick: Federer-Melzer 20' under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
Federer -850 (Melzer) WIN
Monfils +210 (Murray) WIN
Llodra +118 (Davydenko) WIN
risking 300 to win 1956 :0074

Pick: Monfils +3 (Murray) +115, risking 1000 to win 1150 :0074

PRE-analysis: can't trust either one of these goofballs. I'm guessing it goes three sets or i'd be on the under. slight nod to monfils in light of recent form and the price

(ledger: -52,158)

 

[THE_THONG]

did u know andy murray is boxing on 11/20 in Ireland

 

[GoldenTaint]

did u know andy murray is boxing on 11/20 in Ireland

well, i hope he sustains many powerful punches to head and paunch

 

[THE_THONG]

damn man nice hit on that tennis parlay
:toast:

 

[GoldenTaint]

damn man nice hit on that tennis parlay
:toast:

thanks, was glad to see murray lose. his lines are usually off because everyone acts like he is some top champion who just for some reason doesn't win majors yet, but the thing to realize is nearly all the tennis commentators are british/australian and they're confusing their hopes with reality. murray, unlike genuine top players, very rarely has stretches of excellence lasting more than about four games.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Saturday 11/13/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -52,158)

Pick: Soderling -2' (Llodra) +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :sadwave:

Pick: Soderling-Llodra 23' under +115, risking 1000 to win 1150 :sadwave:

Pick: Federer -498, risking 1494 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Federer-Monfils 21 under +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Federer -140 (Monfils), risking 1400 to win 1000 (67) :sadwave:

POST-analysis: rough day. Fed blew multiple match points AFTER blowing a 4-1 lead in third set. Soderling had every chance to close out the third set earlier and cover the number by ' instead of lose by '.

Pick: Mississippi-Tennessee 55 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Utah-Notre Dame 53 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Georgia +7' (Auburn) -105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :sadwave:

Pick: Georgia +265, risking 1000 to win 2650 :sadwave:

(ledger: -60,102)

 

[CapMan]

Murray only fairs well vs Federer for some reason, I win so much money against him. If Monfils wins the first set somehow he will pull off the upset. Fed will not want to chase him around for a 3 setter today this late in the season. Llodra/Sod is a toss up, both serving so well..probably go to tie break 1st set

 

[GoldenTaint]

Murray only fairs well vs Federer for some reason, I win so much money against him. If Monfils wins the first set somehow he will pull off the upset. Fed will not want to chase him around for a 3 setter today this late in the season. Llodra/Sod is a toss up, both serving so well..probably go to tie break 1st set

I would be extremely surprised if Federer loses. Without the wind, or some other extraneous factor, it's hard for people to beat those with superior skills. Monfils is unreliable under pressure.

 

[CapMan]

I don't expect Monfils to win, but he certainly is a live dog. Murray frustrates Fed with his "just keep in play" style and Monfils on a good day does it better with a stronger 1st serve..Fed starts trying to be too fine with Murray, pegging deep corners and such..I could see it happening vs Monfils..

Poor Llodra..wide open forehand down the line for the match and he nets it. Soderling is toast tomorrow.

 

[CapMan]

Monfils wins the 1st, Federer the 2nd..slugfest..Monfils appears to have cracked mentally in the tiebreak. It's over me thinks..Fed is too tough

 

[GoldenTaint]

Murray only fairs well vs Federer for some reason, I win so much money against him. If Monfils wins the first set somehow he will pull off the upset. Fed will not want to chase him around for a 3 setter today this late in the season. Llodra/Sod is a toss up, both serving so well..probably go to tie break 1st set

Good call. Fed was super sluggish and still should have won, disgusting.

 

[CapMan]

Monfils is dealing with knee and neck injuries, but somewhow is battling through. Must be exhausted, but if Soderling doesn't serve well we will see another upset.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 11/14/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -60,102)

Pick: Soderling -2 (Monfils) +108, risking 1000 to win 1080 :0074

Pick: Soderling-Monfils 24 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Soderling -490 (Monfils), risking 980 to win 200 (61) :0074

Pick: LIVE: CHICAGO +6' (Minnesota) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (3-0 2q start) :0074

Pick: LIVE: CHICAGO +115 (Minnesota), risking 1000 to win 1150 (3-0 2q 10m) :0074

(ledger: -55,672)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Monday 11/15/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -55,672)

Pick: Hrbaty -285 (Vanek), risking 855 to win 300 :0074

Pick: 2teaser (8 points)
Philadelphia-Washington 52 under
WASHINGTON +11' (Philadelphia
risking 1000 to win 667 :sadwave:

Pick: Philadelphia-Washington 44 under -108, risking 1080 to win 1000 :sadwave:

(ledger: -57,452)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Tuesday 11/16/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: -57,452)

Pick: Northeastern-Southern Illinois 128' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Pospisil -120 (Klizan), risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Oral Roberts-Tulsa 140' under -110, risking 550 to win 500 :sadwave:

Pick: LaSalle-Baylor 146' under -110, risking 550 to win 500 :0074

Pick: Skugor -225 (Grigelis), risking 1800 to win 800 :sadwave:

Pick: Virginia Tech-Kansas State 142' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: TOhio U.-Temple 45 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (7-0 1q 5:38) :sadwave:

(ledger: -59,602)