New Picks Thread (all sports)

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: Winnipeg-Hamilton 53' under, risking 330 to win 300 :0074

Pick: FIRST HALF Winnipeg-Hamilton 27 under, risking 220 to win 200 :0074

Pick: ST.LOUIS -130 (Dodgers), risking 390 to win 300 :0074

why: stl finally beat lad yesterday, i think they will again tonight, and if they don't, will double up on them tomorrow

ledger: (-343)

 

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: (golf) THIRD ROUND Kaymer -125 (Karlsson), risking 250 to win 200 :0074

Pick: (golf) THIRD ROUND Casey +105 (Westwood), risking 200 to win 210 :0074

Pick: Gimeno-Traver +3 games (Monfils) -112, risking 448 to win 400 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Kanepi -235 (Oprandi) WIN
Pennetta -460 (Goerges) WIN
risking 300 to win 220 :0074

Pick: Goerges +5 games (Pennetta) +105, risking 200 to win 210 :sadwave:

Pick: Devarrman +100 (Young), risking 200 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: Tottenham -161 (San Jose), risking 483 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Tottenham-San Jose 2' goals under +119, risking 300 to win 357 :0074

Pick: Toronto-Philadelphia Union DRAW +249, risking 200 to win 498 :sadwave:

ledger: (-887)

 

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: 2parlay:
CINCINNATI +2' runs (Colorado) -310
Oakland +2' runs (Kansas City) -365
risking 300 to win 204 :0074

Pick: NY-Columbus 2' goals under -137, risking 274 to win 200 :0074

ledger: (-483)

 

[GoldenTaint]

7/18 picks (all in this post)

Pick: (golf) ROUND FOUR Kaymer +105 (Casey), risking 500 to win 525 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
Montanes -113 (Monfils) WIN
Kanepi +170 (Pennetta) WIN
Matosevic +145 (Young) WIN
risking 200 to win 2300 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
CINCINNATI +2' (Colorado) -360 WIN
Dodgers +2' (St. Louis) -475 WIN
Kanepi +4 games (Pennetta) -135 WIN
risking 400 to win 677 :0074

Pick: Dodgers-St. Louis 10 under -173, risking 519 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Kanepi +4 games (Pennetta) -135, risking 540 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Young -180 (Matosevic), risking 720 to win 400 :sadwave:

why: great day so far, will hedge on uneven Young with 2300 to play with if he loses.

POST-analysis: great day. after 2 days of bs wins turned into freak pushes, and a couple losses that should have been wins, everything came thru today. really like Kanepi, she's ranked #38 and just beat the #12. She is the new Davenport, a big plain girl with a super heavy groundstroke that makes the average girls flail in exhaustion. i see her in the top five within two years. thick chicks have the effortless power that will blow away 80% of the field. long as they serve ok and don't make too many unforced errors, they'll win. Kanepi is about the same size as Davenport, but not at all clumsy or slow moving.

ledger: (+2999)

 

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: L.A.-D.C. 2' goals under -134, risking 268 to win 200 :sadwave:

ledger: (+2731)

 

[kickserv]

Nice job so far GoldenTaint...well done

 

[GoldenTaint]

Nice job so far GoldenTaint...well done

Thanks, kickserv! I really like betting tennis: most of the non-majors have 3-set contests, so they're over quickly. Also, most tennis matches are available online. So once you've seen the same player 3 matches in a row, not too hard to get an idea how they're going to perform in the next one.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(ledger: +2731)

(all 7/19/10 picks in this post)

Pick: Zverev +2 games (Golubev) +110, risking 200 to win 220 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: Zverev is German, despite name. He had girl-fans in audience in this Germany tournament. Got off to good start, but soon it became apparent his ground strokes were not up to snuff. Some people probably knew that before the match started.

Pick: Rus +3 games (Cornet) -105, risking 210 to win 200 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: far too many unforced errors by Rus, Cornet is no great shakes by any means.

Pick: Chakvetadze +3 games (Makarova) -127, risking 254 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Chardy -205 (Chiudinelli), risking 410 to win 200 :0074

why: betting this based on line. Chardy is more talented, but notorious for not showing up if his head aint right.

Pick: Tosic +5 games +102 (Paszek), risking 200 to win 204 :sadwave:

why: Paszek is shit. probably a better reason to take the dog ml, but won't pass up five games.

Pick: Middlesbrough-Athlone 3 goals under -103, risking 309 to win 300 :0074

why: 4 goals to beat me.

Pick: Aston Villa-Peterborough 3 goals under -116, risking 348 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Becker-Russell 22' games over -110, risking 220 to win 200 :sadwave:

why: a suck off, where both players will think they can win, probably some back and forth, good chance for three sets

ANALYSIS: one thing i'm going to take advantage of this week that i did not last week is betting some unders in the later stages of these tourneys. a boatload of these cashed last week, and i wasnt on any of them. the lines are nearly always shaded toward the over by a half game or a game. it is particularly good to look at the unders after a day or two with a large number of overs hitting.

Pick: Ram +2' games (Beck) -110, risking 330 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Ram-Beck 22' games under -113, risking 339 to win 300 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: Ram was up 4-1 in 2nd set, but gives up some serves, causing total to lose by 1/2 game.

Pick: 2parlay:
Fish -960 (Ward) WIN
Blake/Isner -400 (Ginepri/Sweeting) WIN
risking 400 to win 152 :0074

ledger: (+2366)

Pick: Quigley +434 (Bogomolov), risking 200 to win 868 (pending, to be completed 7/20; will begin new post w this play copied in)

why: quigley played at UKty; bogo seems to me on the way out of pro tennis; the line took a big drop toward dog

 

[kickserv]

Well GoldenTaint I could have used you when I played, I never knew what I was going to do after one match, let alone three:mj07:

Also, for the record........In men's singles tennis all matches are best outta three sets except for Davis Cup, Grand Slams and the finals of 5 Masters events.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Well GoldenTaint I could have used you when I played, I never knew what I was going to do after one match, let alone three:mj07:

True. It's not an exact thing, to be sure. But of course, there are only two options: this side or that side, over or under. So if we take three or four impressions and pieces of knowledge, we can very often get a feel that X is likelier to happen than Y.

X player is playing in his home country, fans love him, opponent has showed signs of injury, played a super long match last night: all we have to do is get a few of these on our side and we can kind of pre-tell what will happen in the crudest sense. I mean, this stuff is black and white, when our collection of impressions and pieces of knowledge is reduced to a pick, followed by reality-teacher's grading of our pick.

Also, for the record........In men's singles tennis all matches are best outta three sets except for Davis Cup, Grand Slams and the finals of 5 Masters events.

Yeah, you know somehow I hadn't really realized that. It's a new world out there. Almost all tennis and most soccer are free for viewing online. I need the visuals to figure out what's going to happen. The greatest thing is these matches are over very quickly, so you have your result and move on to the next. No four hour wait like in football and baseball. Also they play daily, so there are lots of choices, and the same player playing day after day after day. There seem to be a lot of situations where you can get a fairly good grasp, if you have basic knowledge of players and circumstances and betting strategy, where you can feel you are pretty likely to win. Even with the ridiculous splits in this sport.

NOTE: interesting thing, doesn't matter what continent: these non-slam tournaments, in the early rounds, are very scarcely populated - you could probably get a ticket for not too much and sit there for hours and see a lot of very good players, especially young ones on the way up.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (+2366)

Pick: Quigley +434 (Bogomolov), risking 200 to win 868 :sadwave:

Pick: Golubev -152 (Granollers), risking 304 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Brands-Reister 22' games under -118, risking 354 to win 300 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
Davydenko -390 (Serra) WIN
Jankovic -1025 (Jovanovski) WIN
Klein -420 (Bangoura) WIN
risking 400 to win 283 :0074

Pick: Red Bull Salzburg-Torshavn 3 goals under -106, risking 212 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Golubev-Granollers 22' games under +100, risking 300 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Ferrero-Hajek 21 games under -107, risking 321 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Jankovic-Jovanovski 18 games under +110, risking 200 to win 220 PUSH

 

[GoldenTaint]

[rest of nite's picks will be in this thread, including non-tennis, if any]

Pick: Malisse-Sweeting 22' games under -120, risking 480 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Dent-Blake 22' games under -105, risking 420 to win 400 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: weak on Dent's part. Most pros would have wiped up Blake with 2 breaks in the second set.

Pick: Ginepri-Lindahl 21' games under -128, risking 256 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Tipsarevic-Anderson 22' games under -113, risking 339 to win 300 :0074

why: Tipsarevic is pretty good, never heard of Anderson. Why buck the trend? Matches going well under or just under. Have to believe that one of them will break, that's usually how it works.

ledger: (+4229)

 

[damien4191]

Taint, what sportsbook do you use for tennis? Neither of mine have tennis props.

 

[kickserv]

95% sure he uses 5 dimes

 

[GoldenTaint]

Taint, what sportsbook do you use for tennis? Neither of mine have tennis props.

5dimes

I encourage others to contribute to this thread if they have specifc pieces of knowledge.

OBSERVATION: up until a couple weeks ago, 5d seemed to be offering more and more live betting on tennis. Then, all of a sudden, nothing at all. Anyone know why this might be? Are they only planning on live betting in tennis for the majors?

Serious tennis bettors, from what I can surmise, are usually using European books (that aren't sponsored here, and I'm not even sure if they allow American accounts), and they're doing a lot of live betting, which is great for hedging your losses in real time.

I do a little tennis thru wsex, but they don't offer totals, and only a few sides, and as with everything else, they have some of the worst splits in the business. Then there's their little problem with payouts.

 

[kickserv]

5 dimes only offers live betting on "big matches". And yes you are correct there are a bunch of "non sponsors" that do live betting on tennis. I use some of em.

 

[GoldenTaint]

5 dimes only offers live betting on "big matches". And yes you are correct there are a bunch of "non sponsors" that do live betting on tennis. I use some of em.

Live betting is the future. We're almost, but not wholly, to the point where you can see every pro athletic contest live and free online and bet on it while it's happening, no matter where in the world the book, the event, the bettor are located. Still a ways to go, but that is where this all is headed.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all 7/21/10 early/aft picks in this post)

ledger: (+4229)

Pick: Istomin +4' games (Almagro) -125, risking 375 to win 300 :0074

POST-analysis: had this one nailed but did not fully profit since stayed off the moneyline. the smartest people i follow usually put a percentage of their pick on the ML where it's big like this (+410).

Pick: Chardy -105 (Petzschner), risking 420 to win 400 :0074

why: banking on slight letdown by Almagro, off his Swedish win. Petzschner is a little over-pumped after recent good play. think Chardy can hang one more round, at least. chardy line just jumped from +110 to -105, so probably will continue to shade that way. might well be smarter to take the ML with istomin at over +400, but i cant stand losing where i'm 90% right and it tails off and fails at the end. almagro may well slowly defunk thru this match and take it in the end, and i want to get paid if that's the case, not a near miss. i feel there is a very good chance istomin can win four games apiece in two sets, even if he doesn't win outright.

Pick: Dzehalevich + 5 games (Bacsinszky) +100, risking 250 to win 250 :0074

Pick: Voegele -118 (Paszek), risking 354 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Hanescu-Reister 22' games under -112, risking 336 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: England (U19)-Netherlands (U19) 2' goals under -104, risking 312 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Bolelli + 3 games (Bellucci) -112, risking 336 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Chardy-Petzschner 22' games under -103, risking 309 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Bolelli-Bellucci 22 games under +100, risking 300 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Kohlschreiber -2 games (Chela) -130, risking 390 to win 300 PUSH

Pick: Chakvetadze-Errani 21 games over -110, risking 330 to win 300 :sadwave:

ledger: (+4777)

 

[pfj]

after the 1st i thought dzehalevich had it straight up....o welll. my local book doesn't have totals or side + games. kinda sucks. o well bol with rest of the card! on the opposite side of chardy.

 

[GoldenTaint]

after the 1st i thought dzehalevich had it straight up....o welll. my local book doesn't have totals or side + games. kinda sucks. o well bol with rest of the card! on the opposite side of chardy.

get 5d. they actually pay promptly if you win. they're the best book (for americans) if you can't get pinnacle.