New Picks Thread (all sports)
- Thread starter GoldenTaint
- Start date
ledger: (+4777)
Pick: 2parlay:
Fish -172 (Ginepri) WIN
Isner -330 (Muller) WIN
risking 400 to win 424 :0074
Pick: Zeballos -109 (Dent), risking 218 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Zeballos-Dent 23 games under -123, risking 492 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: i underweighted zeb's being a clay court guy, and his flying over from europe. what made me bet against dent, his proclivity for unforced errors, did show up, but only caused him to drop a set, not the match - and was enough to push the total over by one game.
Pick: Ginepri-Fish 22' games under +100, risking 400 to win 400 :0074
PRE-analysis: getting a little concerned about this after ass kicking this afternoon. ginepri has personal connections to the tournament area (atlanta), and number is moving wrong way. since i've been doing well until this afternoon, i will let it stand.
Pick: Russell-Schuettler 23 games under -125, risking 500 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: can never be surprised to lose backing journeymen, youngsters or schlubs. inconsistency leads to back and forth leads to overs. still, this had a good chance to go under, even going three sets
Pick: Isner-Muller 23 games under +110, risking 500 to win 550 :sadwave:
Pick: CINCINNATI +2' (Washington) -250, risking 500 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: Cin will probably win straight up, but i like the cautious route at the modest price. i think the true odds of was winning by 3 or more is more like -400 or -500 than -250, given how well cin is playing this year
ledger: (+3391)
Pick: 2parlay:
Fish -172 (Ginepri) WIN
Isner -330 (Muller) WIN
risking 400 to win 424 :0074
Pick: Zeballos -109 (Dent), risking 218 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Zeballos-Dent 23 games under -123, risking 492 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: i underweighted zeb's being a clay court guy, and his flying over from europe. what made me bet against dent, his proclivity for unforced errors, did show up, but only caused him to drop a set, not the match - and was enough to push the total over by one game.
Pick: Ginepri-Fish 22' games under +100, risking 400 to win 400 :0074
PRE-analysis: getting a little concerned about this after ass kicking this afternoon. ginepri has personal connections to the tournament area (atlanta), and number is moving wrong way. since i've been doing well until this afternoon, i will let it stand.
Pick: Russell-Schuettler 23 games under -125, risking 500 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: can never be surprised to lose backing journeymen, youngsters or schlubs. inconsistency leads to back and forth leads to overs. still, this had a good chance to go under, even going three sets
Pick: Isner-Muller 23 games under +110, risking 500 to win 550 :sadwave:
Pick: CINCINNATI +2' (Washington) -250, risking 500 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: Cin will probably win straight up, but i like the cautious route at the modest price. i think the true odds of was winning by 3 or more is more like -400 or -500 than -250, given how well cin is playing this year
ledger: (+3391)
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not all that much when betting 200-900 and finally hitting a streak after messing around and digging out of two big holes in world cup. i hit a 200 parlay for 2300, that's a lot of it. giving some back this afternoon, unfortunately.
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ledger: (+3391)
Pick: Chardy +3 games (Melzer) -118, risking 236 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: 3parlay:
Davydenko -525 (Golubev) LOSS
Jankovic -1543 (Yakimova) LOSS (ret.)
Roddick -1850 (Ram) WIN
risking 600 to win 202 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: Jankovic apparently injured herself and retired. She won first set easy, lost competitive second, quit after losing opening game of third. Golubev continued to impress. Dumb bet on my part since Davydenko cost me a bunch the other day, losing as a -500 favorite for the second straight match. He didn't look terrible, but Golubev looked great, very powerful and mostly accurate. Was very lucky to win the 20' under, certainly not the way I expected. Lesson here is not to bet on a huge favorite until he's demonstrated he's regained form. Also probably should throw 50 on +1000 underdog as cheap insurance, since this kind of injury-retirement happens not rarely.
Pick: Istomin -116 (Reister), risking 348 to win 300 :0074
POST-analysis: proud of this pick, a lot of smarts were on Reister. The line was a little under because Reister is hometown boy (Hamburg). Reister played well, but when it mattered, Istomin had more.
Pick: Davydenko-Golubev 20' games under -133, risking 266 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 2parlay:
Anderson -152 (Young) WIN
Fish/Roddick -300 (Huss/Sa) CANCELED Fish w/draws
risking 400 to win (484) 263 :0074
PRE-analysis: Don't think much of Young, want to get odds on thru a doubles side that should be a fairly easy win.
Pick: Hamilton +7 (Montreal) -105, risking 210 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Tottenham-New York 2' goals under -109, risking 327 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: San Jose +1 goal (Los Angeles) +103, risking 400 to win 412 :0074
Pick: San Jose +693 (Los Angeles), risking 200 to win 1386 :sadwave:
why: pure chase, pure action bets (SJ MLS bets). LA has no home losses, just possible there's one here, and the line's moving toward the dog, which was a good sign in the Davydenko match earlier today
POST-analysis: guessed just right on this, but came up two minutes short, as la equalized in last minute of regulation, turning huge win into average win. la just too much quality not to overcome two deficits and escape with a tie, still has not lost at home this year
ledger: (+3266)
Pick: Chardy +3 games (Melzer) -118, risking 236 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: 3parlay:
Davydenko -525 (Golubev) LOSS
Jankovic -1543 (Yakimova) LOSS (ret.)
Roddick -1850 (Ram) WIN
risking 600 to win 202 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: Jankovic apparently injured herself and retired. She won first set easy, lost competitive second, quit after losing opening game of third. Golubev continued to impress. Dumb bet on my part since Davydenko cost me a bunch the other day, losing as a -500 favorite for the second straight match. He didn't look terrible, but Golubev looked great, very powerful and mostly accurate. Was very lucky to win the 20' under, certainly not the way I expected. Lesson here is not to bet on a huge favorite until he's demonstrated he's regained form. Also probably should throw 50 on +1000 underdog as cheap insurance, since this kind of injury-retirement happens not rarely.
Pick: Istomin -116 (Reister), risking 348 to win 300 :0074
POST-analysis: proud of this pick, a lot of smarts were on Reister. The line was a little under because Reister is hometown boy (Hamburg). Reister played well, but when it mattered, Istomin had more.
Pick: Davydenko-Golubev 20' games under -133, risking 266 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 2parlay:
Anderson -152 (Young) WIN
Fish/Roddick -300 (Huss/Sa) CANCELED Fish w/draws
risking 400 to win (484) 263 :0074
PRE-analysis: Don't think much of Young, want to get odds on thru a doubles side that should be a fairly easy win.
Pick: Hamilton +7 (Montreal) -105, risking 210 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Tottenham-New York 2' goals under -109, risking 327 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: San Jose +1 goal (Los Angeles) +103, risking 400 to win 412 :0074
Pick: San Jose +693 (Los Angeles), risking 200 to win 1386 :sadwave:
why: pure chase, pure action bets (SJ MLS bets). LA has no home losses, just possible there's one here, and the line's moving toward the dog, which was a good sign in the Davydenko match earlier today
POST-analysis: guessed just right on this, but came up two minutes short, as la equalized in last minute of regulation, turning huge win into average win. la just too much quality not to overcome two deficits and escape with a tie, still has not lost at home this year
ledger: (+3266)
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(all 7/23/10 picks in this POST)
ledger: (+3266)
Pick: (golf) SECOND ROUND Song-Hee Kim -105 (Na Yeon Choi), risking 520 to win 500 :sadwave:
why: tailing Stanley. 95% of my golf picks are tails; most Stanley, sometimes others. Line already up to -145!
Pick: Starace +3' games (Melzer) -125, risking 375 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Mayr +3 games (Cornet) -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Starace +171 (Melzer), risking 300 to win 513 :sadwave:
why: Melzer's been doing well lately, and I think it's about time he shrinks back to his real size. If Starace doesn't even cover the games, it's time to retrench. Success tends to lead to looseness, just as tightness tends to lead to success.
POST-analysis: Melzer was fantastic, blew Starace away, and Starace was not playing poorly. Time to bet smaller and more selectively.
ledger: (+1756)
Pick: Golubev -110 (Istomin), risking 220 to win 200 :0074
POST-analysis: this Golubev is one to watch. hits the ball extremely hard, wants to be #1, and if he can keep the ball in bounds, it might be problem. not that he has a problem with unforced errors now, but he can get even better
Pick: 2parlay:
Fish -290 (Dent) WIN
Isner -276 (Russell) WIN
risking 200 to win 166 :0074
Pick: CUBS +2' (St. Louis) -340, risking 340 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Malisse +4 games (Roddick) -130, risking 260 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Malisse +340 (Roddick), risking 100 to win 340 :sadwave:
why: would be angry all night if roddick loses and i'm not on it, and that's quite possible. europeans are almost always TECHNICALLY better than americans, and in tennis that means if you keep hitting the ball back to roddick, he'll eventually make an unforced error. he's tried to overcome this, but it's still there.
Pick: (CFL) TORONTO +105 (B.C.), risking 200 to win 210 :0074
Pick: Fish-Dent 22' games under +125, risking 200 to win 250 :0074
ledger: (+2782)
ledger: (+3266)
Pick: (golf) SECOND ROUND Song-Hee Kim -105 (Na Yeon Choi), risking 520 to win 500 :sadwave:
why: tailing Stanley. 95% of my golf picks are tails; most Stanley, sometimes others. Line already up to -145!
Pick: Starace +3' games (Melzer) -125, risking 375 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Mayr +3 games (Cornet) -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Starace +171 (Melzer), risking 300 to win 513 :sadwave:
why: Melzer's been doing well lately, and I think it's about time he shrinks back to his real size. If Starace doesn't even cover the games, it's time to retrench. Success tends to lead to looseness, just as tightness tends to lead to success.
POST-analysis: Melzer was fantastic, blew Starace away, and Starace was not playing poorly. Time to bet smaller and more selectively.
ledger: (+1756)
Pick: Golubev -110 (Istomin), risking 220 to win 200 :0074
POST-analysis: this Golubev is one to watch. hits the ball extremely hard, wants to be #1, and if he can keep the ball in bounds, it might be problem. not that he has a problem with unforced errors now, but he can get even better
Pick: 2parlay:
Fish -290 (Dent) WIN
Isner -276 (Russell) WIN
risking 200 to win 166 :0074
Pick: CUBS +2' (St. Louis) -340, risking 340 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Malisse +4 games (Roddick) -130, risking 260 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Malisse +340 (Roddick), risking 100 to win 340 :sadwave:
why: would be angry all night if roddick loses and i'm not on it, and that's quite possible. europeans are almost always TECHNICALLY better than americans, and in tennis that means if you keep hitting the ball back to roddick, he'll eventually make an unforced error. he's tried to overcome this, but it's still there.
Pick: (CFL) TORONTO +105 (B.C.), risking 200 to win 210 :0074
Pick: Fish-Dent 22' games under +125, risking 200 to win 250 :0074
ledger: (+2782)
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(all 7/24/10 picks in this POST)
Pick: Golubev +135 (Mayer), risking 500 to win 675 :0074
why: surprising line, i expected golubev to be the favorite. yes, the match is in germany, but i strongly suspect this line will go flying back the other way. of course, i was wrong about melzer today, and could be wrong about mayer tomorrow, but based on what i've seen of the two, i'm hitting golubev hard
Pick: (golf-Euro) THIRD ROUND Brown -105 (Hend), risking 210 to win 200 :0074
Pick: (golf-LPGA) THIRD ROUND Wright -125 (Pace), risking 250 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 5parlay:
Golubev +135 (Mayer) WIN
Melzer -230 (Seppi) WIN
Pervak +100 (Larsson) LOSS (Ret.)
Goerges +100 (Cornet)
Bacsinszky -135 (Meusberger) WIN
risking 100 to win 2248 :sadwave:
Pick: St. Louis-Cubs 13 under -160, risking 320 to win 200 :0074
Pick: (golf-PGA) THIRD ROUND Delahoussaye -115 (Grube), risking 230 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: (golf-PGA) THIRD ROUND Estes -105 (Henry), risking 210 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Isner-Anderson 23' games under -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: one point from winning, but isner can't serve out 2nd set tiebreak up 7-6
Pick: (HEDGE) Larsson -113 (Pervak), risking 113 to win 100 :0074
why: 3 of 5 in parlay in, bet this to cover cost in case larsson wins, BUT I DONT THINK SHE WILL.
Pick: FC Dallas pk (Toronto FC) -118, risking 236 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Edmonton-Winnipeg 54 under -110, risking 220 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 2teaser:
WINNIPEG +5 (Edmonton) WIN
WINNIPEG-Edmonton 58' under LOSE
risking 200 to win 214 :sadwave:
Pick: Fish +2' games (Roddick) -130, risking 260 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Houston-Columbus 2 goals under +132, risking 200 to win 264 :sadwave:
Pick: 2teaser (6')
Saskatchewan +8' (Calgary) LOSS
Saskatchewan-Calgary 62' under WIN
risking 400 to win 348 :sadwave:
Pick: Chivas USA +1 (Real Salt Lake) -113, risking 226 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Chivas USA-Real Salt Lake 2' goals under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :0074
why: somewhat like anti-la pick the other night. start to 2h of season, real salt lake has been very good at home, think chivas might do something here, and good chance of getting away with push if i'm wrong
ledger: (+2942)
Pick: Golubev +135 (Mayer), risking 500 to win 675 :0074
why: surprising line, i expected golubev to be the favorite. yes, the match is in germany, but i strongly suspect this line will go flying back the other way. of course, i was wrong about melzer today, and could be wrong about mayer tomorrow, but based on what i've seen of the two, i'm hitting golubev hard
Pick: (golf-Euro) THIRD ROUND Brown -105 (Hend), risking 210 to win 200 :0074
Pick: (golf-LPGA) THIRD ROUND Wright -125 (Pace), risking 250 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 5parlay:
Golubev +135 (Mayer) WIN
Melzer -230 (Seppi) WIN
Pervak +100 (Larsson) LOSS (Ret.)
Goerges +100 (Cornet)
Bacsinszky -135 (Meusberger) WIN
risking 100 to win 2248 :sadwave:
Pick: St. Louis-Cubs 13 under -160, risking 320 to win 200 :0074
Pick: (golf-PGA) THIRD ROUND Delahoussaye -115 (Grube), risking 230 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: (golf-PGA) THIRD ROUND Estes -105 (Henry), risking 210 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Isner-Anderson 23' games under -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: one point from winning, but isner can't serve out 2nd set tiebreak up 7-6
Pick: (HEDGE) Larsson -113 (Pervak), risking 113 to win 100 :0074
why: 3 of 5 in parlay in, bet this to cover cost in case larsson wins, BUT I DONT THINK SHE WILL.
Pick: FC Dallas pk (Toronto FC) -118, risking 236 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Edmonton-Winnipeg 54 under -110, risking 220 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 2teaser:
WINNIPEG +5 (Edmonton) WIN
WINNIPEG-Edmonton 58' under LOSE
risking 200 to win 214 :sadwave:
Pick: Fish +2' games (Roddick) -130, risking 260 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Houston-Columbus 2 goals under +132, risking 200 to win 264 :sadwave:
Pick: 2teaser (6')
Saskatchewan +8' (Calgary) LOSS
Saskatchewan-Calgary 62' under WIN
risking 400 to win 348 :sadwave:
Pick: Chivas USA +1 (Real Salt Lake) -113, risking 226 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Chivas USA-Real Salt Lake 2' goals under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :0074
why: somewhat like anti-la pick the other night. start to 2h of season, real salt lake has been very good at home, think chivas might do something here, and good chance of getting away with push if i'm wrong
ledger: (+2942)
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QUESTION: So I'm watching some Strikeforce online, justin.tv through atdhe.com, and all of a sudden I notice the banner ad atop the video window. It says: "Free Gay Realtor Directory!" Which caused me to wonder, and answer if you know: is there a homo contingent that follows martial arts the way lesbians follow WNBA?
Good luck with your doggy Golubev play, I was going to play on Golubev but just couldn't pull the trigger, went with big parlay instead.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=413826
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=413826
So I've heard..
I have to say, in Pesci voice, this MMA shit really is a more than lil bit faggy. Not a fan. I like boxing. Something faggy about dudes kicking at other dudes. Not my cup o' tea.
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By the way, kickserv, if you don't mind answering, did you play challenger events? What is the touring pro attitude toward all that traveling. It must be hell on the mind to fly from Timbuktu to Outer Mongolia to Newport every ten days. It must really disturbing and stressful if you lose like two first-round matches in a row. It seems like it would be almost as great a challenge simply to stay healthy and energetic as to win the matches.
Agree on Melzer. Paid a lot going against him today, and boy was he impressive. Have lost 2x going against Cornet, still don't think she's all that great, but neither really is Goerges. Would give a very slight nod to Goerges, who just might be a rising star, has shown some skill and some will, but needs to improve. As for Meusberger, she's in her element, but I suspect she has overachieved to get to this match. Good luck!
That Golubev line is so far off what I expected that it makes me wonder what I'm missing. Mayer is a journeyman. Yes, playing at home, and in good form, but Golubev was very very strong and impressive the last two matches. Imo, he should be favored about -170, rising to -200 by match time. He is hitting extremely strong and mostly accurate passing shots, and I don't think Mayer can sustain with him. He doesn't have the angles or precision of Federer at his peak, but the power in certain of his shots definitely reminds me of Federer. Unless he hits a far higher percentage of unforced errors than I've seen the last three matches, I really don't see Mayer beating him.
As for your questions...................
Yep, it sucks to lose, but losing and collecting 2 bucks makes it even worse:tongue
Travel is way tougher at the "lower level" that is for sure, but I can tell ya that CHALLENGERS are "THE RITZ" compared to FUTURES events. And you are right, staying healthy is pretty much a win. I remember a tourney in Kenya when 90 percent of the draw got food poisoning.......that was one funny tourney I can tell ya that:142smilie
Also, not uncommon at all to have 4 guys staying in a hotel room. Or tents being set up at the tourney site.
Yep, it sucks to lose, but losing and collecting 2 bucks makes it even worse:tongue
Travel is way tougher at the "lower level" that is for sure, but I can tell ya that CHALLENGERS are "THE RITZ" compared to FUTURES events. And you are right, staying healthy is pretty much a win. I remember a tourney in Kenya when 90 percent of the draw got food poisoning.......that was one funny tourney I can tell ya that:142smilie
Also, not uncommon at all to have 4 guys staying in a hotel room. Or tents being set up at the tourney site.
Tents! That must have been something. I can imagine how easy it is to get sick and eat wrong when you're always on a plane. Even travling once a month for business can throw you off. I don't even see Futures matches lined. Or maybe I haven't noticed.
I'm struck by how few people are at a lot of these events, they look like they'd be fun to watch in person.
I don't think I've even heard of futures. Most of the challengers are televised and available online, although not real high quality video, but enough to see where your money is going.
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Yeah - I like this kid. Mayer had that look after last round of an NBA team that has just won the first playoff series, and you can tell they're basically satisfied with it, and won't really mind if they lose the next. But I've seen him play before, and not nearly as well as today and this tournament. That's going to be real battle between Golub and Melz tomorrow, not sure who to take, maybe the over.
