New Picks Thread (all sports)
- Thread starter GoldenTaint
- Start date
Can see the three levels of tournies here.........
http://stevegtennis.com/atpres.htm
Right now tourney going on in IRAN:scared
http://stevegtennis.com/results/2010/f-iran2.txt
http://stevegtennis.com/atpres.htm
Right now tourney going on in IRAN:scared
http://stevegtennis.com/results/2010/f-iran2.txt
So it's
1) slams
2) atp world tour
3) challengers
4) futures
"futures" matches are unlined, right?
1) slams
2) atp world tour
3) challengers
4) futures
"futures" matches are unlined, right?
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i use livescorehunter.com, they seem to have more online matches than anyone, certainly more than atdhe.net has
for video (and scores):
http://www.livescorehunter.com/Livescores/Livescore-Tennis.html
for scores:
http://livescore.com/tennis/today/
for video (and scores):
http://www.livescorehunter.com/Livescores/Livescore-Tennis.html
for scores:
http://livescore.com/tennis/today/
Well if you really want to get technical it is:
Slams
Masters Finale
Masters Events
Main Tour
Challengers (25K to 125K +H)
Futures (10K to 15K +H)
*+H means tourney pays for lodging, which sometimes is more important then prize money.
Slams
Masters Finale
Masters Events
Main Tour
Challengers (25K to 125K +H)
Futures (10K to 15K +H)
*+H means tourney pays for lodging, which sometimes is more important then prize money.
so if you're a player coming up, how do you get to the futures level? win some club or city championship?
Well if you do not have a ranking and want to get into Main Draw of a Futures or Challenger Event you can do the following:
1) Get a wild card from tourney organizers (good luck with that!)
2) Advance through qualies
3) Win a "Wild Card" tourney
20 percent of the time a tourney will offer a "Wild Card" tourney. In fact all the Grand Slams actually have "Wild Card" tournies where if players win they get a "Wild Card" into main draw.
For Challengers the ranking cut off to get into main draw ranges from 125 to about 600 or so. There are some Challengers where all 8 seeds are top 125 in the World. In fact I have seen some Challengers with a deeper draw then a main tour event, although that is rare. Bottom line if you are not top 500 in the world you will most likely not get into a main draw.
Cut-off for Future events vary. I have seen a Futures where cut off was 400. I have also seen Futures where cut-offs for main draw were in the 1500's.
As for qualies, in Challengers and Futures, if you have a ranking 95 percent of the time you will get into Challenger qualies. For FUTURE events, most of the time you can get into qualies if you don't have a ranking. In order to determine who gets into the qualies it is somewhat complicated. Comes down to your Doubles world ranking. And then after that your National ranking. After that it comes down to a draw out of a hat.
1) Get a wild card from tourney organizers (good luck with that!)
2) Advance through qualies
3) Win a "Wild Card" tourney
20 percent of the time a tourney will offer a "Wild Card" tourney. In fact all the Grand Slams actually have "Wild Card" tournies where if players win they get a "Wild Card" into main draw.
For Challengers the ranking cut off to get into main draw ranges from 125 to about 600 or so. There are some Challengers where all 8 seeds are top 125 in the World. In fact I have seen some Challengers with a deeper draw then a main tour event, although that is rare. Bottom line if you are not top 500 in the world you will most likely not get into a main draw.
Cut-off for Future events vary. I have seen a Futures where cut off was 400. I have also seen Futures where cut-offs for main draw were in the 1500's.
As for qualies, in Challengers and Futures, if you have a ranking 95 percent of the time you will get into Challenger qualies. For FUTURE events, most of the time you can get into qualies if you don't have a ranking. In order to determine who gets into the qualies it is somewhat complicated. Comes down to your Doubles world ranking. And then after that your National ranking. After that it comes down to a draw out of a hat.
(all 7/25/10 picks in this POST, added whenever a new one is made)
ledger: (+2942)
PRE-analysis: fantastic match coming up between Golubev and Melzer. Yesterday almost all my tennis reads were right except Pervak, who lost to Larsson. Today, I am not sure which way to go on Golubev and Melzer, or on Cornet/Goerges. My instinct is both matches will be tight, and likelier to go over the games total, but don't really like doing the over very often. Line on Melzer is -233, which is unthinkable given the way Golubev has played. Gol + 193 is what people call "value," but there's no money back if Golubev plays great and barely loses, which is very, very possible. Golubev will not crack or break down. If he loses, it will be shaved miss here or a tipped net there. Very close. Golubev + 3 games -120 seems tempting. But Melzer is playing at the top of his game. He's not going to crack either. There's very little room for Golubev to cash the games ticket without winning outright. Essentially the -120 gives you an extra dollop of not-losing for half the return of G's winning. It's a very difficult call, in this case. It's the kind of thing where I'd far prefer to pay extra to shift the line. Give me Golubev and 4 games for -180, I'd prefer that to anything offered. I really don't see Golubev, if he doesn't win outright, dropping his serve more than once a set. Bereft of intuition, the correct call out of this must be the 22'o -105. That's fair. The most predictable thing about this match is not who will win it but that both players will continue their excellent play. That translates into holding serve. Easy to imagine this going three sets or 75 75 or 76 64, all winners. So let's make that first pick of the day.
Pick: Golubev-Melzer 22' games over -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Goerges +111 (Cornet), risking 300 to win 333 :0074
why: this is a 51-49 pick. think goerges will shade it at the end.
POST-analysis: Goerges shreds Cornet's serve, and i was wrong, this match was not close at all. Finally the Cornet I had bet against showed up. Goerges isn't great, but she's pretty good and getting better. They're similar player, actually, but Goerges has a much bigger upside, imo.
Pick: Larsson +130 (Chakvetadze), risking 400 to win 520 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: worst call of the week
Pick: Isner +2 games (Fish) -105, risking 420 to win 400 :0074
Pick: St. Louis +2' (Cubs) -460, risking 460 to win 100 :0074
ledger: (+3060)
ledger: (+2942)
PRE-analysis: fantastic match coming up between Golubev and Melzer. Yesterday almost all my tennis reads were right except Pervak, who lost to Larsson. Today, I am not sure which way to go on Golubev and Melzer, or on Cornet/Goerges. My instinct is both matches will be tight, and likelier to go over the games total, but don't really like doing the over very often. Line on Melzer is -233, which is unthinkable given the way Golubev has played. Gol + 193 is what people call "value," but there's no money back if Golubev plays great and barely loses, which is very, very possible. Golubev will not crack or break down. If he loses, it will be shaved miss here or a tipped net there. Very close. Golubev + 3 games -120 seems tempting. But Melzer is playing at the top of his game. He's not going to crack either. There's very little room for Golubev to cash the games ticket without winning outright. Essentially the -120 gives you an extra dollop of not-losing for half the return of G's winning. It's a very difficult call, in this case. It's the kind of thing where I'd far prefer to pay extra to shift the line. Give me Golubev and 4 games for -180, I'd prefer that to anything offered. I really don't see Golubev, if he doesn't win outright, dropping his serve more than once a set. Bereft of intuition, the correct call out of this must be the 22'o -105. That's fair. The most predictable thing about this match is not who will win it but that both players will continue their excellent play. That translates into holding serve. Easy to imagine this going three sets or 75 75 or 76 64, all winners. So let's make that first pick of the day.
Pick: Golubev-Melzer 22' games over -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Goerges +111 (Cornet), risking 300 to win 333 :0074
why: this is a 51-49 pick. think goerges will shade it at the end.
POST-analysis: Goerges shreds Cornet's serve, and i was wrong, this match was not close at all. Finally the Cornet I had bet against showed up. Goerges isn't great, but she's pretty good and getting better. They're similar player, actually, but Goerges has a much bigger upside, imo.
Pick: Larsson +130 (Chakvetadze), risking 400 to win 520 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: worst call of the week
Pick: Isner +2 games (Fish) -105, risking 420 to win 400 :0074
Pick: St. Louis +2' (Cubs) -460, risking 460 to win 100 :0074
ledger: (+3060)
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(all 7/26/10 picks in this POST)
ledger: (+3060)
Pick: (future) Golubev to win Suisse Open +2000, risking 200 to win 4000 :sadwave:
why: there are only a handful in this tournament who can beat golubev in current form. the fact that he goes into the Suisse having won the German Open is against him, but, in my judgment, he did not overly extend himself in winning it. no super long matches, no psychologically exhausting struggles. i think he wants more, because he has said his goal is to become #1, and that is not a ridiculous goal given the power in his shots. if he is up for it, there is no reason he cant win this clay courter too. i expect him to be around long enough to hedge off the 200 if need, but the upside is too attractive to resist. (5d takes 250 max on this future, and has lowered the return to +1600)
Pick: Robredo -250 (Gil), risking 500 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 2parlay:
Robredo -250 (Gil) LOSS
Lorenzi +4 games (Dolgopolov) +105 WIN
risking 200 to win 374 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: pure :facepalm: . as always, favorites in the 290-250 range are most dangerous of all. do you agree? i have noticed in football and other sports, but football in particular, a favorite ML that is between -300 and -250 and dropping seems to lose more often than other moneylines (in proportion to risk).
Pick: Schiavone -455 (Keothavong), risking 455 to win 100 :0074
PRE-analysis: this is an angry, stupid bet, I would not tail it.
Pick: Zeballos-Schuettler 23 games under -125, risking 250 to win 200 [CANCELED - Zeb. ret.]
Pick: 2parlay
Lacko +150 (Gulbis) LOSS
Tipsarevic -120 (Giraldo) WIN
risking 100 to win 358 :sadwave:
Pick: Tipsarevic -130 (Giraldo), risking 390 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Malisse-Sela 22' games under -117, risking 351 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: 3parlay:
Malisse -195 (Sela) LOSS
Kleybanova -182 (Ivanovic) LOSS
Safina -158 (Krumm) LOSS
risking 100 to win 288 :sadwave:
Pick: Kleybanova-Ivanovic 21' games under +100, risking 300 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Safina-Krumm 21 games under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :sadwave:
(ledger: +1964)
ledger: (+3060)
Pick: (future) Golubev to win Suisse Open +2000, risking 200 to win 4000 :sadwave:
why: there are only a handful in this tournament who can beat golubev in current form. the fact that he goes into the Suisse having won the German Open is against him, but, in my judgment, he did not overly extend himself in winning it. no super long matches, no psychologically exhausting struggles. i think he wants more, because he has said his goal is to become #1, and that is not a ridiculous goal given the power in his shots. if he is up for it, there is no reason he cant win this clay courter too. i expect him to be around long enough to hedge off the 200 if need, but the upside is too attractive to resist. (5d takes 250 max on this future, and has lowered the return to +1600)
Pick: Robredo -250 (Gil), risking 500 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 2parlay:
Robredo -250 (Gil) LOSS
Lorenzi +4 games (Dolgopolov) +105 WIN
risking 200 to win 374 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: pure :facepalm: . as always, favorites in the 290-250 range are most dangerous of all. do you agree? i have noticed in football and other sports, but football in particular, a favorite ML that is between -300 and -250 and dropping seems to lose more often than other moneylines (in proportion to risk).
Pick: Schiavone -455 (Keothavong), risking 455 to win 100 :0074
PRE-analysis: this is an angry, stupid bet, I would not tail it.
Pick: Zeballos-Schuettler 23 games under -125, risking 250 to win 200 [CANCELED - Zeb. ret.]
Pick: 2parlay
Lacko +150 (Gulbis) LOSS
Tipsarevic -120 (Giraldo) WIN
risking 100 to win 358 :sadwave:
Pick: Tipsarevic -130 (Giraldo), risking 390 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Malisse-Sela 22' games under -117, risking 351 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: 3parlay:
Malisse -195 (Sela) LOSS
Kleybanova -182 (Ivanovic) LOSS
Safina -158 (Krumm) LOSS
risking 100 to win 288 :sadwave:
Pick: Kleybanova-Ivanovic 21' games under +100, risking 300 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Safina-Krumm 21 games under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :sadwave:
(ledger: +1964)
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(all 7/27/10 picks this POST)
ledger: (+1964)
Pick: 2parlay:
Golubev -265 (Schukin) LOSS (and futures loss)
Almagro -525 (Granollers) WIN
risking 300 to win 192 :sadwave:
Pick: Larsson +107 (Schnyder), risking 300 to win 321 :0074
ANALYSIS: been a rough couple of days, going to be more selective in what i post here. really disappointed in golubev, but shows again how careful have to be in going with someone who has just won a tournament. wait to back him until he's shown he's truly into the next one. almagro lost the first match after sweden triumph, and golubev after german.
Pick: Bolelli-Veic 22 games under -106, risking 212 to win 200 PUSH
POST-comment: easy missed volley on match point turns a WIN into a PUSH
Pick: Navarro-Dodig 22' games under -105, risking 210 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Fognini-Phau 22 games under -112, risking 224 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Starace-Stakhovsky 21 games under -108, risking 216 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: all today's earlier matches in this Croatian tournament have gone under, no reason that won't continue
Pick: Sunderland-Benfica 3 goals under -117, risking 234 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Beck-Falla 22' games under -120, risking 240 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-comment: 23. not a freak loss, just a loss. contrary to the smilie, my money did not go away sad. it just went away.
Pick: Bozoljack-Ginepri 22' games under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Mayer-Blake 23' games under -120, risking 360 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Smyzek-Gabashvili 22' games under -115, risking 230 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Wickmayer -455 (Chan), risking 455 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Wozniak +2' games (Oudin) -128, risking 384 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Kirilenko -300 (Lucic), risking 450 to win 150 :0074
Pick: METS +1' runs (St. Louis) -130, risking 390 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Puerto Rico Islanders +1' goals (Los Angeles) +108, risking 200 to win 216 :0074
Pick: Puerto Rico Islanders-Los Angeles draw +443, risking 100 to win 443 :sadwave:
why: try again to catch some major plussage off the galaxy. game is awkwardly situated, from what i read, in relation to upcoming MLS all-star game.
COMMENT: the PR-Galaxy game shows the most difficult thing about sports betting. no, it's not picking winners. it's not even money management. it's surviving the emotional rollercoaster that even after a winning day like today can leave you pissed off and shaking your head. so last week i bet on the galaxy's opponent to win, a huge underdog. they led most of the game. in the last minute the galaxy tied it at two. i lose. tonight, i eschew the dog side at +1000+(!) and take the draw at +440. the dog wins 4-1. at over 10x payout! even after a very successful day, the bettor is left bereft, bewildered and bepissed over what might have been, what should have been. and THAT is the #1 reason why betting is so g*ddam hard.
Pick: Dodgers-San Diego 5' over -165, risking 165 to win 100 :sadwave:
ledger: (+3046)
ledger: (+1964)
Pick: 2parlay:
Golubev -265 (Schukin) LOSS (and futures loss)
Almagro -525 (Granollers) WIN
risking 300 to win 192 :sadwave:
Pick: Larsson +107 (Schnyder), risking 300 to win 321 :0074
ANALYSIS: been a rough couple of days, going to be more selective in what i post here. really disappointed in golubev, but shows again how careful have to be in going with someone who has just won a tournament. wait to back him until he's shown he's truly into the next one. almagro lost the first match after sweden triumph, and golubev after german.
Pick: Bolelli-Veic 22 games under -106, risking 212 to win 200 PUSH
POST-comment: easy missed volley on match point turns a WIN into a PUSH
Pick: Navarro-Dodig 22' games under -105, risking 210 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Fognini-Phau 22 games under -112, risking 224 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Starace-Stakhovsky 21 games under -108, risking 216 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: all today's earlier matches in this Croatian tournament have gone under, no reason that won't continue
Pick: Sunderland-Benfica 3 goals under -117, risking 234 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Beck-Falla 22' games under -120, risking 240 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-comment: 23. not a freak loss, just a loss. contrary to the smilie, my money did not go away sad. it just went away.
Pick: Bozoljack-Ginepri 22' games under -115, risking 345 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Mayer-Blake 23' games under -120, risking 360 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Smyzek-Gabashvili 22' games under -115, risking 230 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Wickmayer -455 (Chan), risking 455 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Wozniak +2' games (Oudin) -128, risking 384 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Kirilenko -300 (Lucic), risking 450 to win 150 :0074
Pick: METS +1' runs (St. Louis) -130, risking 390 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Puerto Rico Islanders +1' goals (Los Angeles) +108, risking 200 to win 216 :0074
Pick: Puerto Rico Islanders-Los Angeles draw +443, risking 100 to win 443 :sadwave:
why: try again to catch some major plussage off the galaxy. game is awkwardly situated, from what i read, in relation to upcoming MLS all-star game.
COMMENT: the PR-Galaxy game shows the most difficult thing about sports betting. no, it's not picking winners. it's not even money management. it's surviving the emotional rollercoaster that even after a winning day like today can leave you pissed off and shaking your head. so last week i bet on the galaxy's opponent to win, a huge underdog. they led most of the game. in the last minute the galaxy tied it at two. i lose. tonight, i eschew the dog side at +1000+(!) and take the draw at +440. the dog wins 4-1. at over 10x payout! even after a very successful day, the bettor is left bereft, bewildered and bepissed over what might have been, what should have been. and THAT is the #1 reason why betting is so g*ddam hard.
Pick: Dodgers-San Diego 5' over -165, risking 165 to win 100 :sadwave:
ledger: (+3046)
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(all 7/28/10 picks this post)
ledger: (+3046)
Pick: Haider-Maurer +5' games (Montanes) -110, risking 220 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: Montanes used the first set for warmup; after that H-M hardly won a point.
Pick: Klein -130 (Sirianni), risking 260 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 3parlay:
Davydenko -675 (Robert) WIN
Ferrero -245 (Cuevas) WIN
Tipsarevic -220 (Devvarman) WIN
risking 300 to win 397 :0074
Pick: 5parlay:
Davydenko -700 (Robert) WIN
Ferrero -290 (Cuevas) WIN
Tipsarevic -230 (Devvarman) WIN
Ginepri -170 (Schuettler) LOSS
Baghdatis -240 (Sweeting) WIN
risking 100 to win 396 :sadwave:
Pick: HOUSTON +1' (Cub) -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Cincinnati -115 (Milwaukee), risking 230 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 2parlay:
Davydenko -750 (Robert) WIN
Stosur -887 (McHale) WIN
risking 400 to win 104 :0074
Pick: Wickmayer -178 (Cibulkova), risking 178 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Wickmayer-Cibulkova 21 games under -114, risking 228 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 4parlay:
Baghdatis -245 (Sweeting) WIN
Ball/Guccione -160 (Butorac/Rojer) LOSS
Dancevic -550 (Matsui)
Levy -280 (Suzuki) LOSS
risking 200 to win 534 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: dumb bet as no real knowledge of the doubles team butorac/rojer. should have left that out. haven't seen baghdatis play lately so not willing to do more than throw him in parlay at a number in the danger zone, roughly between -300 and -220
Pick: MLS All Stars +1 goals (Manchester United) -168, risking 336 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: MLS All Stars-Manchest United 3 goals under +118, risking 300 to win 354 :sadwave:
why: line suggests this will be an open game, but i have a feeling it will be 2-1 at most, and as likely to be US winning as Man. U. That's more in line with what the EPL tour has shown lately than the opposite. You gotta feel the english fvcks are tired of losing to US punks. but i dont think that translates into ManU scoring, i think it will translate into a better defense, after their KC fiasco.
POST-analysis: didn't think about this hard enough. Man U had incentive to win after embarrassing loss to KC. and this MLS team is all stars who haven't played together.
(+245 on day to this point)
Pick: Anderson-Querrey 23' games under -118, risking 354 to win 300 :sadwave:
why: high number, suggests going over. but my guess is the issue's settled in first set, the dog or fav cleans up in second set 6-4.
Pick: Anderson-Querrey 23' games under +100, risking 200 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: line moving against me. can't resist throwing a couple hundred more on at even money. risk of turning winning day into losing, but after huge yesterday, and great decisions on totals, i'm gonna run until they throw me out.
POST-analysis: loose late betting and poor money management turn a profitable day into a loser.
(ledger: +2737)
ledger: (+3046)
Pick: Haider-Maurer +5' games (Montanes) -110, risking 220 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: Montanes used the first set for warmup; after that H-M hardly won a point.
Pick: Klein -130 (Sirianni), risking 260 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 3parlay:
Davydenko -675 (Robert) WIN
Ferrero -245 (Cuevas) WIN
Tipsarevic -220 (Devvarman) WIN
risking 300 to win 397 :0074
Pick: 5parlay:
Davydenko -700 (Robert) WIN
Ferrero -290 (Cuevas) WIN
Tipsarevic -230 (Devvarman) WIN
Ginepri -170 (Schuettler) LOSS
Baghdatis -240 (Sweeting) WIN
risking 100 to win 396 :sadwave:
Pick: HOUSTON +1' (Cub) -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Cincinnati -115 (Milwaukee), risking 230 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 2parlay:
Davydenko -750 (Robert) WIN
Stosur -887 (McHale) WIN
risking 400 to win 104 :0074
Pick: Wickmayer -178 (Cibulkova), risking 178 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Wickmayer-Cibulkova 21 games under -114, risking 228 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 4parlay:
Baghdatis -245 (Sweeting) WIN
Ball/Guccione -160 (Butorac/Rojer) LOSS
Dancevic -550 (Matsui)
Levy -280 (Suzuki) LOSS
risking 200 to win 534 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: dumb bet as no real knowledge of the doubles team butorac/rojer. should have left that out. haven't seen baghdatis play lately so not willing to do more than throw him in parlay at a number in the danger zone, roughly between -300 and -220
Pick: MLS All Stars +1 goals (Manchester United) -168, risking 336 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: MLS All Stars-Manchest United 3 goals under +118, risking 300 to win 354 :sadwave:
why: line suggests this will be an open game, but i have a feeling it will be 2-1 at most, and as likely to be US winning as Man. U. That's more in line with what the EPL tour has shown lately than the opposite. You gotta feel the english fvcks are tired of losing to US punks. but i dont think that translates into ManU scoring, i think it will translate into a better defense, after their KC fiasco.
POST-analysis: didn't think about this hard enough. Man U had incentive to win after embarrassing loss to KC. and this MLS team is all stars who haven't played together.
(+245 on day to this point)
Pick: Anderson-Querrey 23' games under -118, risking 354 to win 300 :sadwave:
why: high number, suggests going over. but my guess is the issue's settled in first set, the dog or fav cleans up in second set 6-4.
Pick: Anderson-Querrey 23' games under +100, risking 200 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: line moving against me. can't resist throwing a couple hundred more on at even money. risk of turning winning day into losing, but after huge yesterday, and great decisions on totals, i'm gonna run until they throw me out.
POST-analysis: loose late betting and poor money management turn a profitable day into a loser.
(ledger: +2737)
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(all plays for 7/29/10 in this p-o-s-t)
(ledger: +2737)
Pick: (LPGA) FIRST ROUND, Hee Young Park -120 (Hee Kyeong Seo), risking 360 to win 300 :0074
Pick: (PGA) FIRST ROUND, Perry +100 (Crane), risking 300 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Schiavone -455 (Baltacha), risking 910 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: this one really hurt. schiavone didn't lose it, baltacha won it. more power, more accuracy. not sure how i missed this, which is almost as bad as the loss itself. baltacha can be broken on her serve, and schiavone is tough minded. they play the same sort of game on hard courts, and baltacha was decidedly better today, and i feel the fool for backing the loser at 4:1. on this play it should have been a pick 'em. it is clear that schiavone is overrated due to winning French, and has played little after that, but what i saw from her in round one was quite impressive, but now appears it was more the weakness of her opponent. baltacha looked nothing special in her opening match, but looked sharp today. a truly horrible loss, the worst since i've been posting. it's making me question the gulbis pick, as he is coming back from an injury, looked good in first round, and is a fairly heavy favorite against a good player. follow at your own risk. just so you realize, all these picks i post on here are considered, and the rare times i anger bet or chase, i say that up front. the weights of each pick are considered, so that the ones i put more on i do think are likelier to win.
Pick: 7parlay:
Atlanta +2' (Washington) -465 WIN
Schiavone -455 (Baltacha) LOSS
Gulbis -273 (Falla) LOSS
Azarenka -425 (Oudin) WIN
Kamke -350 (Feeney) WIN
Murray -1625 (Smyczek)
Ivanovic +125 (Bartoli)
risking 200 to win 1336 :sadwave:
PRE-analysis: feel extremely confident about schiavone, gulbis, murray. pretty confident about atlanta, kamke, azarenka. this bet is keyed around +125 and ivanovic. hers is a late match, and if the others have come through, there will certainly be some kind of hedge. she dominated the other day, and i feel about 60% she will defeat bartoli.
Pick: Aris Thessaloniki pk (Jagiellonia Bialystok) -126, risking 252 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Lopez-Sela 22' games under -117, risking 351 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Gulbis -268 (Falla), risking 536 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: another bad bet. even though gulbis is the better player and should have won this particular match. gulbis still too early off injury to back at -300.
COMMENT on parlays. i do two types. parlays fully expected to win. and parlays where i risk a little to go after a big or huge return. the ones expected to win are usually 2p or 3p. seldom more. usually involving favorites, often heavy favorites. the second type usually include, and are based around, either an outright dog or a pick-em. sometimes 2-3 or more of these. usually wrapped in a few heavier favorites, to boost the return. fewer than half of these parlays will hit, but enough of them should hit to make them worth playing.
Pick: Blake-Becker 22' games under -108, risking 432 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: blake blows about 800 break and match point to lose the under.
Pick: Ivanovic-Bartoli 21' games under -127, risking 508 to win 400 :0074
Pick: (CFL) Toronto-Montreal 53' under -110, risking 330 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Smyczek +5' games (Murray) -113, risking 226 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Smyczek-Murray 19 games under -105, risking 210 to win 200 :sadwave:
(ledger: +974)
(ledger: +2737)
Pick: (LPGA) FIRST ROUND, Hee Young Park -120 (Hee Kyeong Seo), risking 360 to win 300 :0074
Pick: (PGA) FIRST ROUND, Perry +100 (Crane), risking 300 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Schiavone -455 (Baltacha), risking 910 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: this one really hurt. schiavone didn't lose it, baltacha won it. more power, more accuracy. not sure how i missed this, which is almost as bad as the loss itself. baltacha can be broken on her serve, and schiavone is tough minded. they play the same sort of game on hard courts, and baltacha was decidedly better today, and i feel the fool for backing the loser at 4:1. on this play it should have been a pick 'em. it is clear that schiavone is overrated due to winning French, and has played little after that, but what i saw from her in round one was quite impressive, but now appears it was more the weakness of her opponent. baltacha looked nothing special in her opening match, but looked sharp today. a truly horrible loss, the worst since i've been posting. it's making me question the gulbis pick, as he is coming back from an injury, looked good in first round, and is a fairly heavy favorite against a good player. follow at your own risk. just so you realize, all these picks i post on here are considered, and the rare times i anger bet or chase, i say that up front. the weights of each pick are considered, so that the ones i put more on i do think are likelier to win.
Pick: 7parlay:
Atlanta +2' (Washington) -465 WIN
Schiavone -455 (Baltacha) LOSS
Gulbis -273 (Falla) LOSS
Azarenka -425 (Oudin) WIN
Kamke -350 (Feeney) WIN
Murray -1625 (Smyczek)
Ivanovic +125 (Bartoli)
risking 200 to win 1336 :sadwave:
PRE-analysis: feel extremely confident about schiavone, gulbis, murray. pretty confident about atlanta, kamke, azarenka. this bet is keyed around +125 and ivanovic. hers is a late match, and if the others have come through, there will certainly be some kind of hedge. she dominated the other day, and i feel about 60% she will defeat bartoli.
Pick: Aris Thessaloniki pk (Jagiellonia Bialystok) -126, risking 252 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Lopez-Sela 22' games under -117, risking 351 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Gulbis -268 (Falla), risking 536 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: another bad bet. even though gulbis is the better player and should have won this particular match. gulbis still too early off injury to back at -300.
COMMENT on parlays. i do two types. parlays fully expected to win. and parlays where i risk a little to go after a big or huge return. the ones expected to win are usually 2p or 3p. seldom more. usually involving favorites, often heavy favorites. the second type usually include, and are based around, either an outright dog or a pick-em. sometimes 2-3 or more of these. usually wrapped in a few heavier favorites, to boost the return. fewer than half of these parlays will hit, but enough of them should hit to make them worth playing.
Pick: Blake-Becker 22' games under -108, risking 432 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: blake blows about 800 break and match point to lose the under.
Pick: Ivanovic-Bartoli 21' games under -127, risking 508 to win 400 :0074
Pick: (CFL) Toronto-Montreal 53' under -110, risking 330 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Smyczek +5' games (Murray) -113, risking 226 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Smyczek-Murray 19 games under -105, risking 210 to win 200 :sadwave:
(ledger: +974)
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(all 7/30/10 picks in this p-o-s-t)
Pick: Hajek +4 games (Melzer) -114, risking 342 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Querrey -300 (Schuettler), risking 900 to win 300 :0074
why: very confident in this pick. i think querrey worked out the kinks against anderson, who is at least as good as schuettler lately.
POST-analysis: bad bet. lucky win. maybe it was heat and wind, but queerey looked nothing like last match against anderson. he only got through because schuettler went weak in the knees at the very end.
Pick: 3parlay:
Querrey -300 (Schuettler) WIN
Stosur -170 (Wickmayer) WIN
Azarenka -215 (Bartoli) WIN
risking 300 to win 631 :0074
Pick: 2parlay:
ST. LOUIS +2' (Pittsburgh) -1400 WIN
A. Murray -875 (Falla) WIN
risking 200 to win 39 :0074
Pick: 2Teaser (+9 points):
EDMONTON +7 (B.C.) WIN
B.C.-Edmonton 62 under WIN
risking 200 to win 111 :0074
Pick: Sharapova -165 (Dementieva), risking 330 to win 200 :0074
(ledger: +1913)
Pick: Hajek +4 games (Melzer) -114, risking 342 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Querrey -300 (Schuettler), risking 900 to win 300 :0074
why: very confident in this pick. i think querrey worked out the kinks against anderson, who is at least as good as schuettler lately.
POST-analysis: bad bet. lucky win. maybe it was heat and wind, but queerey looked nothing like last match against anderson. he only got through because schuettler went weak in the knees at the very end.
Pick: 3parlay:
Querrey -300 (Schuettler) WIN
Stosur -170 (Wickmayer) WIN
Azarenka -215 (Bartoli) WIN
risking 300 to win 631 :0074
Pick: 2parlay:
ST. LOUIS +2' (Pittsburgh) -1400 WIN
A. Murray -875 (Falla) WIN
risking 200 to win 39 :0074
Pick: 2Teaser (+9 points):
EDMONTON +7 (B.C.) WIN
B.C.-Edmonton 62 under WIN
risking 200 to win 111 :0074
Pick: Sharapova -165 (Dementieva), risking 330 to win 200 :0074
(ledger: +1913)
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(all 7/31/10 picks in this p-o-s-t)
(ledger: +1913)
Pick: (Euro golf) THIRD ROUND, Howell +1/2 stroke (Hutsby) -125, risking 250 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Gimeno-Traver-Almagro 22 games under +105, risking 200 to win 210 :sadwave:
Pick: Gimeno-Traver wins in 2 sets +435, risking 100 to win 435 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: GT blows pretty easy chance to take tiebreak in 1st set, killing this pick. He loses anyway so amounts the same. Need to find stat on how many dog ML winners do it 2-0 in sets.
Pick: Gimeno-Traver +3' games -120, risking 120 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Groth +132 (Pavlyuchenkova), risking 200 to win 264 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: Groth blows it, serving 5-4 for the match.
Pick: (PGA) THIRD ROUND, Delaet -105 (Daly), risking 315 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Schukin +4' games (Gasquet) -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Schukin +420 (Gasquet), risking 200 to win 840 :sadwave:
Pick: Schukin-Gasquet 20' games under -121, risking 242 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 3parlay:
TORONTO +2' (Cleveland) -535 WIN
ST. LOUIS +2' (Pittsburgh) -535 WIN
Bryan/Bryan -435 (Bopanna/Qureshi) WIN
risking 400 to win 280 :0074
Pick: Seppi +3 games (Ferrero) -130, risking 520 to win 400 :sadwave:
why: I think Seppi wins outright (+150 or so), but will take the three games just in case
Pick: 5parlay:
Seppi +147 (Ferrero) LOSS
Murray -650 (Lopez) WIN
Bryan/Bryan -475 (Bopanna/Qureshi) WIN
Stosur-Azurenka 22 games over -108 LOSS
Sharapova -250 (Radwanska) WIN
risking 200 to win 1660 :sadwave:
Pick: (HEDGE) 2parlay
Ferrero -172 (Seppi) WIN
Stosur-Azurenka 22 games under -122 WIN
risking 100 to win 178 :0074
why: unusual to do hedge before any legs of parlay are determined, but if this loses, i believe it will be seppi losing, and second to that, stosur-az. going under. really don't think the others will lose.
HEADS UP: 5d doing live betting: Stosur-Azurenka, on now; Tipsarevic-Querrey later.
Pick: Tipsarevic-Querrey 22' games under +120, risking 400 to win 480 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: really thought one of these guys would crack, but no.
Pick: ST. LOUIS -179 (Pittsburgh), risking 358 to win 200 :0074
why: stl has been beaten a number of times by pittsburgh the last couple years, i think they will beat them here, as they did yesterday. with ludwick traded, they'll be on their toes.
Pick: DC United +1 goal (Real Salt Lake) +100, risking 300 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Sharapova -274 (Radwanska), risking 822 to win 300 :0074
POST-analysis: very impressive, Sharapova - heart of a lion
Pick: Winnipeg +6' (Calgary), risking 330 to win 300 :0074
Pick: SECOND HALF Winnipeg +145 (Calgary), risking 300 to win 435 :0074
(ledger: +1421)
(ledger: +1913)
Pick: (Euro golf) THIRD ROUND, Howell +1/2 stroke (Hutsby) -125, risking 250 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Gimeno-Traver-Almagro 22 games under +105, risking 200 to win 210 :sadwave:
Pick: Gimeno-Traver wins in 2 sets +435, risking 100 to win 435 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: GT blows pretty easy chance to take tiebreak in 1st set, killing this pick. He loses anyway so amounts the same. Need to find stat on how many dog ML winners do it 2-0 in sets.
Pick: Gimeno-Traver +3' games -120, risking 120 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Groth +132 (Pavlyuchenkova), risking 200 to win 264 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: Groth blows it, serving 5-4 for the match.
Pick: (PGA) THIRD ROUND, Delaet -105 (Daly), risking 315 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Schukin +4' games (Gasquet) -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Schukin +420 (Gasquet), risking 200 to win 840 :sadwave:
Pick: Schukin-Gasquet 20' games under -121, risking 242 to win 200 :0074
Pick: 3parlay:
TORONTO +2' (Cleveland) -535 WIN
ST. LOUIS +2' (Pittsburgh) -535 WIN
Bryan/Bryan -435 (Bopanna/Qureshi) WIN
risking 400 to win 280 :0074
Pick: Seppi +3 games (Ferrero) -130, risking 520 to win 400 :sadwave:
why: I think Seppi wins outright (+150 or so), but will take the three games just in case
Pick: 5parlay:
Seppi +147 (Ferrero) LOSS
Murray -650 (Lopez) WIN
Bryan/Bryan -475 (Bopanna/Qureshi) WIN
Stosur-Azurenka 22 games over -108 LOSS
Sharapova -250 (Radwanska) WIN
risking 200 to win 1660 :sadwave:
Pick: (HEDGE) 2parlay
Ferrero -172 (Seppi) WIN
Stosur-Azurenka 22 games under -122 WIN
risking 100 to win 178 :0074
why: unusual to do hedge before any legs of parlay are determined, but if this loses, i believe it will be seppi losing, and second to that, stosur-az. going under. really don't think the others will lose.
HEADS UP: 5d doing live betting: Stosur-Azurenka, on now; Tipsarevic-Querrey later.
Pick: Tipsarevic-Querrey 22' games under +120, risking 400 to win 480 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: really thought one of these guys would crack, but no.
Pick: ST. LOUIS -179 (Pittsburgh), risking 358 to win 200 :0074
why: stl has been beaten a number of times by pittsburgh the last couple years, i think they will beat them here, as they did yesterday. with ludwick traded, they'll be on their toes.
Pick: DC United +1 goal (Real Salt Lake) +100, risking 300 to win 300 :sadwave:
Pick: Sharapova -274 (Radwanska), risking 822 to win 300 :0074
POST-analysis: very impressive, Sharapova - heart of a lion
Pick: Winnipeg +6' (Calgary), risking 330 to win 300 :0074
Pick: SECOND HALF Winnipeg +145 (Calgary), risking 300 to win 435 :0074
(ledger: +1421)
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Probably so. Don't have numbers, but seems like dogs win 2-0 more than half the time when they win.
