Taking small shots with Kerber and Goerges today. I just don't think a Li vs Wozniaki final is a given.
Also going large on Peer over Radwanska
Also going large on Peer over Radwanska
New Picks Thread (all sports)
- Thread starter GoldenTaint
- Start date
Seeing line movement against Peer...might lay off some action later on that..trying to talk myself into Stosur, can't see Pennetta going up 3-0 on her.
why so high on Berdych? he hasn't been clean this week and Malisse seems to be in form. I think taking out Isner preps X-Man for another hard hitter, no?
No opinion on Stosur, although I wouldn't back Pennetta. Feel I have better read on men this afternoon. Hard not to see at least one of Kerb Goerg cashing on games if not both. But not real familiar with Li. Nor with Peer. Would guess goes one of three ways: radwanska rolls, rad tight, or peer tight. i dont see peer winning easily.
Men seem pretty easy to read: berdych, cilic, nalbandian win. not sure about bags-verdasco, that will probably be back and forth until the end.
Because I attribute some of that to getting back in. This stuff is not easy. All the players except Roddick can hit 500 shots in a row off the lines. Look at Berd's match yesterday (earlier than Malisse, another point). Struggles the first two sets, rolls in the third. Malisse struggles all three sets, wins 7-6 in the third. Peter Principle: Malisse is being promoted beyond his competence this round! Berdych tuned up, and will probably beat him in two sets, is my guess, something like 75 63.
Malisse has been playing a lot lately. Berdych hasn't. So I would see a longer tougher play by Malisse yesterday as a nice win, but a negative for today, whereas I see Berdych struggling as more of a warm up for today, a getting back in the flow. I expect Berdych not to be tired and be ready to play full on. Malisse probably has a slight letdown from being a little tired after yesterday, and a little satisfied after knocking off Isner, who i think he lost to in Atlanta the tournament before. All need is a slight advantage to Berdych who is a better player than Malisse, and we have two slight advantages by my reading. Of course, and this goes without saying so I say it often, I could well be wrong. The games werent online yesterday so I didn't see to pick up any hidden points not revealed in the score. Malisse just doesn't seem to me the type of player Berdych would lose to, apart from the circumstances of this particular match, which I believe favor Berdych. Malisse has played a lot of tennis lately, and i think he needs some rest, whereas Berdych needs to get further in this tournament.
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Makes sense..I think the price for Bagdahitis, I consider him the better player on hard surface, Verdasco obviously on clay. Seems like a 3 setter either way so why not take the +150? Berdych is only -310 in my book.. Might just parlay him with Nalbandian.
Definitely think Berd-Nalb is a winner. Might do that myself, but already have enough for now.
Can't say you're wrong about Bags being value, but to me Verdasco is like Ferrero, just too f'ing good to oppose without a very solid, specific reason. Would tend to favor the over in that match, but really don't like playing over, as the lines are usually rigged in that direction a half game or game, so a hell of a lot of the time when you've read the match right and bet over you still lose by a half game. If that makes sense. What I mean is, and I have found this over years across sports, you bet 100 overs, you win 50 by a mile, and lose 50 by an inch. Whereas with unders, you win 1/3 easy, you win 1/3 by a little, you lose 1/3 by a little. Proportions aren't quite right but you get the point. I don't take overs unless I think it's going WAY over. I mean, you can't beat a 23 without going to three sets, very hard to do. The prospect of 76 75 or 75 75 or 76 76 looms very large in the mind, for some reason, but in reality happens only rarely. Very rarely. So you get one 76 set, then the next is super close, and the guy loses serve right at the end, so, depending on who served first, you either lose the over by a game or get a push.
You were right. Malisse's form was the difference. Berdych hasn't played since Wimbledon. I really think if it hadn't been a windy day, Berdych still would have won. It was just enough of an edge to make him not trust his shots, and Malisse was just regular enough to hold serve.
(all 8/7/10 picks in this post)
(ledger: +485)
Pick: Wozniacki -300 (Chakvetadze), risking 300 to win 100 :0074
why: not a good price, so won't put too much on it, but do think woz is better player, and she has the refs pulling for her too. yesterday she got two bad calls in her favor in third-set tiebreak vs goerges, and it might have turned the outcome. it was a great match, though, best of the week (goerges-wozniacki).
Pick: Baghdatis -130 (Malisse), risking 650 to win 500 :0074
why: appeared to me Malisse could have been broken several times last match. Berdych couldn't take the chances, but i think Baghdatis will
Pick: Baghdatis-Malisse 23 games under -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
NOTE: last-minute money on total pushes toward over. under drops to -105
Pick: Aalborg SK +111 (Silkeborg), risking 120 to win 133 :sadwave:
Pick: Cilic-Nalbandian 23' games under -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Real Salt Lake pk (Kansas City) -130, risking 260 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Radwanska -2' games (Hantuchova) -140, risking 140 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Kotelnik +1050 (Alexander), risking 100 to win 1050 :sadwave:
Pick: Sonnen +400 (Silva), risking 100 to win 400 :sadwave:
Pick: 2teaser (9 points):
Winnipeg-Hamilton 63' under WIN
Calgary +7 (B.C.) WIN
risking 200 to win 111 :0074
(ledger: +1376)
(ledger: +485)
Pick: Wozniacki -300 (Chakvetadze), risking 300 to win 100 :0074
why: not a good price, so won't put too much on it, but do think woz is better player, and she has the refs pulling for her too. yesterday she got two bad calls in her favor in third-set tiebreak vs goerges, and it might have turned the outcome. it was a great match, though, best of the week (goerges-wozniacki).
Pick: Baghdatis -130 (Malisse), risking 650 to win 500 :0074
why: appeared to me Malisse could have been broken several times last match. Berdych couldn't take the chances, but i think Baghdatis will
Pick: Baghdatis-Malisse 23 games under -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
NOTE: last-minute money on total pushes toward over. under drops to -105
Pick: Aalborg SK +111 (Silkeborg), risking 120 to win 133 :sadwave:
Pick: Cilic-Nalbandian 23' games under -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Real Salt Lake pk (Kansas City) -130, risking 260 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Radwanska -2' games (Hantuchova) -140, risking 140 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Kotelnik +1050 (Alexander), risking 100 to win 1050 :sadwave:
Pick: Sonnen +400 (Silva), risking 100 to win 400 :sadwave:
Pick: 2teaser (9 points):
Winnipeg-Hamilton 63' under WIN
Calgary +7 (B.C.) WIN
risking 200 to win 111 :0074
(ledger: +1376)
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uh oh..on the other side again with Malisse! I'm going with the hot hand in Malisse, worried about fatigue some but ultimately I think Malisse has 1 more win in him.
he might. appeared to me malisse left several openings for berdych, but berdych couldnt quite capitalize on them, i think baghdatis will.
(all 8/8/10 picks in this post)
(ledger: +1376)
Pick: Wozniacki wins 2-0 in sets (Zakapalova) -144, risking 720 to win 500 :0074
why: Wozniacki has a habit of steamrolling in one set, then dropping the next. or starting slow before coming on. i dont think either of those patterns will reproduce here. this is the final, she's dropped a set in the last two, come very close to losing. i think she'll be on her toes from the opening dance club number and maintain her concentration all the way through. at worst i see her pushed into a tiebreak in one of the sets. the price on this is very fair at -144, and i want a lot of it. every advantage is with woz - playing in her home country, and the linescrew has already shown it will help her on close calls. i actually think this will be the easiest of her last three matches
POST-analysis: nailed this one, unfolded just like i thought it would
Pick: (HEDGE) Zakapalova wins 2-1 in sets (Wozniacki) +744, risking 120 to win 893 :sadwave:
why: this is as pure a hedge as there is, as i don't see any way Wozniacki doesn't take a set from this girl
POST-analysis: this was in fact not a true hedge. if zak had come out on top in the second set, she would very likely have lost the third, resulting in loss of main bet and pseudo-hedge. not sure what i was thinking. in line with what i thought was by far the most likely outcome - wozniacki winning, the correct hedge would have been on woz to win in 3, which i think was considerably likelier than zak winning in any number of sets. in general these bets were flirting with violating the KISS principle (keep it simple, stupid); the only justification for not swallowing hard and taking the high number (-500 on woz to win) was the greater return. is it better to bet 144 to win 100 at 65% likeliehood, or 144 to win 28 at 90% likelihood? mathematically, the former is probably better. emotionally, the latter is better. never felt doubt about woz winning; felt quite nervous, even though it was going as expected, that zak would pull off a set.
Pick: Skugor +110 (Recouderc), risking 300 to win 330 :0074
why: this guy has done nothing but win challenger match after challenger match the last couple weeks, i think he can win this one too. seems to be a player on the way up
Pick: Gimeno-Traver -160 (Mannarino), risking 160 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Haase -230 (Volandri), risking 230 to win 100 :0074
Pick: St. Louis +2' (Florida) -330, risking 330 to win 100 POSTPONED
Pick: Radwanska-Kuznetsova 22 games over -102, risking 204 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Radwanska wins 2-1 sets +331, risking 200 to win 662 :sadwave:
Pick: Kuznetsova wins 2-1 sets +370, risking 200 to win 740 :0074
Pick: (MLS) Philadelphia-Dallas 3' goals under -283, risking 566 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: dumb large bet made in anger thinking earlier bets were going to lose. they didnt. this did. and neatly canceled huge profit.
Pick: Raymond/Stubbs -145 (Kirilenko/Zheng), risking 290 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: New York Red Bulls pk, +1/2 goals -135 (Chicago), risking 270 to win 200 (push/win = 100) :0074
POST-analysis: get a push/win. NY dominated the game, had many close chances but just couldn't score. it was the right side to back, certainly.
Pick: SEATTLE pk, -1/2 goals -130 (Houston), risking 390 to win 300 :0074
(ledger: +2550)
(ledger: +1376)
Pick: Wozniacki wins 2-0 in sets (Zakapalova) -144, risking 720 to win 500 :0074
why: Wozniacki has a habit of steamrolling in one set, then dropping the next. or starting slow before coming on. i dont think either of those patterns will reproduce here. this is the final, she's dropped a set in the last two, come very close to losing. i think she'll be on her toes from the opening dance club number and maintain her concentration all the way through. at worst i see her pushed into a tiebreak in one of the sets. the price on this is very fair at -144, and i want a lot of it. every advantage is with woz - playing in her home country, and the linescrew has already shown it will help her on close calls. i actually think this will be the easiest of her last three matches
POST-analysis: nailed this one, unfolded just like i thought it would
Pick: (HEDGE) Zakapalova wins 2-1 in sets (Wozniacki) +744, risking 120 to win 893 :sadwave:
why: this is as pure a hedge as there is, as i don't see any way Wozniacki doesn't take a set from this girl
POST-analysis: this was in fact not a true hedge. if zak had come out on top in the second set, she would very likely have lost the third, resulting in loss of main bet and pseudo-hedge. not sure what i was thinking. in line with what i thought was by far the most likely outcome - wozniacki winning, the correct hedge would have been on woz to win in 3, which i think was considerably likelier than zak winning in any number of sets. in general these bets were flirting with violating the KISS principle (keep it simple, stupid); the only justification for not swallowing hard and taking the high number (-500 on woz to win) was the greater return. is it better to bet 144 to win 100 at 65% likeliehood, or 144 to win 28 at 90% likelihood? mathematically, the former is probably better. emotionally, the latter is better. never felt doubt about woz winning; felt quite nervous, even though it was going as expected, that zak would pull off a set.
Pick: Skugor +110 (Recouderc), risking 300 to win 330 :0074
why: this guy has done nothing but win challenger match after challenger match the last couple weeks, i think he can win this one too. seems to be a player on the way up
Pick: Gimeno-Traver -160 (Mannarino), risking 160 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Haase -230 (Volandri), risking 230 to win 100 :0074
Pick: St. Louis +2' (Florida) -330, risking 330 to win 100 POSTPONED
Pick: Radwanska-Kuznetsova 22 games over -102, risking 204 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Radwanska wins 2-1 sets +331, risking 200 to win 662 :sadwave:
Pick: Kuznetsova wins 2-1 sets +370, risking 200 to win 740 :0074
Pick: (MLS) Philadelphia-Dallas 3' goals under -283, risking 566 to win 200 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: dumb large bet made in anger thinking earlier bets were going to lose. they didnt. this did. and neatly canceled huge profit.
Pick: Raymond/Stubbs -145 (Kirilenko/Zheng), risking 290 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: New York Red Bulls pk, +1/2 goals -135 (Chicago), risking 270 to win 200 (push/win = 100) :0074
POST-analysis: get a push/win. NY dominated the game, had many close chances but just couldn't score. it was the right side to back, certainly.
Pick: SEATTLE pk, -1/2 goals -130 (Houston), risking 390 to win 300 :0074
(ledger: +2550)
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(all 8/9/10 picks in this post)
(ledger: +2550)
WEEK PREVIEW: two good tournaments coming up, women in cincinnati, men in canada.
Pick: Hanescu -145 (Raonic), risking 290 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Safina -235 (Vinci), risking 470 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Portsmouth-Stevenage 2' goals under -128, risking 128 to win 100 :sadwave:
Pick: Santoja +3' games (Morita) -128, risking 256 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 2parlay:
Andreev -600 (Tavares) LOSS
Kohlschreiber/Monfils +120 (A. Murray/Hutchins) WIN
risking 200 to win 313 :sadwave:
Pick: Lopez-De Bakker 23 games under +110, risking 200 to win 220 :0074
Pick: Polansky +5 games (Melzer) -110, risking 275 to win 250 :0074
Pick: Polansky +513 (Melzer), risking 100 to win 513 :0074
Pick: Ivanovic +5 games (Azarenka) +123, risking 300 to win 369 :0074
Pick: CINCINNATI +1 (St. Louis) -106, risking 636 to win 600 :sadwave:
why: i'll bet cin again tomorrow and next day, i expect them to win, or lose by one run, normally would take cin +2' but i like this price.
Pick: Gulbis -140 (Bellucci), risking 280 to win 200 :0074
(ledger: +3282)
(ledger: +2550)
WEEK PREVIEW: two good tournaments coming up, women in cincinnati, men in canada.
Pick: Hanescu -145 (Raonic), risking 290 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Safina -235 (Vinci), risking 470 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Portsmouth-Stevenage 2' goals under -128, risking 128 to win 100 :sadwave:
Pick: Santoja +3' games (Morita) -128, risking 256 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: 2parlay:
Andreev -600 (Tavares) LOSS
Kohlschreiber/Monfils +120 (A. Murray/Hutchins) WIN
risking 200 to win 313 :sadwave:
Pick: Lopez-De Bakker 23 games under +110, risking 200 to win 220 :0074
Pick: Polansky +5 games (Melzer) -110, risking 275 to win 250 :0074
Pick: Polansky +513 (Melzer), risking 100 to win 513 :0074
Pick: Ivanovic +5 games (Azarenka) +123, risking 300 to win 369 :0074
Pick: CINCINNATI +1 (St. Louis) -106, risking 636 to win 600 :sadwave:
why: i'll bet cin again tomorrow and next day, i expect them to win, or lose by one run, normally would take cin +2' but i like this price.
Pick: Gulbis -140 (Bellucci), risking 280 to win 200 :0074
(ledger: +3282)
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Good to see you are on the :canada1 Polansky, but you'll have to wait to collect your winnings. Weather in Toronto is bad, doubt they get any action in.
And I see we are on same side with the "game spread" chick action:SIB
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=414812
And I see we are on same side with the "game spread" chick action:SIB
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=414812
Yeah, we are. She's tough to call, just have a feeling she'll play a little bit. Should be nicer the rest of the week, although reports for Toronto today didn't indicate anything real bad.
As for Polansky, I don't know much about him, my bet is purely hunch Melzer will let down enough for him to cover, off chance of winning outright.
They're hoovering the courts, so maybe more Toronto tennis tonight.
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What a win for the Canuck.....:00hour
#207 Polansky takes down #15 Melzer 7-6 6-3
Sweet.
Men's tennis.....so much depth:scared
(you never see that in chick tennis)
Great job GoldenTaint, nice +513 doggie win for ya:00hour
:canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1
#207 Polansky takes down #15 Melzer 7-6 6-3
Sweet.
Men's tennis.....so much depth:scared
(you never see that in chick tennis)
Great job GoldenTaint, nice +513 doggie win for ya:00hour
:canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1
yes!
more proof you have to have a REAL strong reason to bet on someone switching surfaces, coming off a tournament win, or coming off a layoff, whereas there's a chance for a score on the big dogs in all these situations
