New Picks Thread (all sports)

[GoldenTaint]

Great job GoldenTaint, nice +513 doggie win for ya:00hour

:canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1 :canada1

Thanks, kickserv, was nice to see Po-sky all fired up, and his blonde girlfriend was looking pretty darn good too. It kind of makes me wonder... All these bitty matches, these challengers, have very sparse crowds, but always among the attending are a disproportionate number of good-looking women. Pro tennis kind of seems like it draws a higher class female groupie than, say, rock bands. I can definitely see some of the players making non-felt-ball contact with some of these lookers.

And how about Ivanovic, she showed some real guts not giving up and coming back for win. That was why I bet on her, but I thought for sure the horse had left the barn after the opener.

 

[kickserv]

I have said 100 times on here.....auto racing, NHL hockey and men's tennis have the hottest wives/girlfriends.

Men's tennis may be number 1.

I myself had a girlfriend way outta my league. I don't know what it is but us tennis guys could get hot chicks:shrug:

Weird:shrug:

And I sucked:mj07:

 

[GoldenTaint]

I have said 100 times on here.....auto racing, NHL hockey and men's tennis have the hottest wives/girlfriends.

Men's tennis may be number 1.

I myself had a girlfriend way outta my league. I don't know what it is but us tennis guys could get hot chicks:shrug:

Weird:shrug:

And I sucked:mj07:

You can't have sucked that bad.

I can see exactly what it is - these are higher-end women, and they are there to admire the male players just the way we admire the females. Of course they don't drool and leer like we tend to do, but behind their masks of cool, it comes through pretty strongly why they're there. Something about tennis makes it perfect for female athletes - just the right mix of size and tone, covered in a nice sheen of sweat. I love it when the European girls emit their disgusted shrieks after blowing a point, very sexy! It's the same for males, I suspect - the women are drawn to these athletic but not brutish types - tall, rangy, European-civilized, well built without being pinheads (ie, football players/weightlifters) - they are, or at least they appear to be, exactly the type of man a higher-class woman wants to consort with. I'm pretty sure that's how they see it, because I can see it in their faces and guess what they're thinking.

 

[kickserv]

Golden Taint = Dr. Phil

 

[GoldenTaint]

Golden Taint = Dr. Phil

He's a taint all right, but not golden.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all 8/10/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +3282)

Pick: Stepanek -203 (Fognini), risking 203 to win 100 :sadwave:

Pick: 3parlay:
Berdych -455 (Stakhovsky) WIN
Stepanek -200 (Fognini) LOSS
Kohlschreiber +3 games (Tipsarevic) +100 (Canc. Tips. ret.)
risking 200 to win 532 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: Really thought Stepanek would be back for this tournament, but still not there yet. Fognini is very good player, but beatable by the better ones.

Pick: Berrer +194 (Malisse), risking 200 to win 388 :sadwave:

Pick: Vesnina -147 (Oudin), risking 294 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Duclos +5 games (Lu) -102, risking 306 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Stuttgart pk (Augsburg) -125, risking 125 to win 100 PUSH

Pick: Zheng +4 games (Pennetta) -120, risking 360 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Llodra -110 (Giraldo), risking 330 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Kohlschreiber +3 games (Tipsarevic) +100, risking 300 to win 300 Canceled (Tips. ret.)

why: betting on better form from Kohlschreiber, who is very good when on, and slight decline from Tips, who has played a lot recently. This very well could lose, but it's a fair shot at the price. If it does lose, will stay away from Kohl until he proves he's better because like Stepanek he will have burned me 2-3x in a row.

Pick: Grandin/Spears -117 (Chuang/Govortsova), risking 234 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Vives/Santonja +165 (Black/Rodionova), risking 200 to win 310 :sadwave:

Pick: Pelletier/Savchuk +279 (Cibulkova/Pavlyuchenko), risking 200 to win 558 :sadwave:

Pick: Gulbis +3' games (Soderling) -105, risking 525 to win 500 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
Verdasco -525 (Schwank) WIN
Federer -1100 (Chela) WIN
risking 300 to win 90 :0074

why: this is not an overly intelligent wager, but it probably will win

Pick: CINCINNATI +2' (St. Louis) -335, risking 335 to win 100 :sadwave:

why: thought i would go large on this but this is all i truly think will win. with wainwright on mound tomorrow, this will be the game where cin keeps it close. would like to go larger, but in light of strong incentive for stl, this is all i dare in this spot. would love to try under 10 -170, but again, i fear what happened last night. some smooth innings and then a blowup. if this goes over, will look for good under tomorrow.

Pick: Dancevic +4' games (Wawrinka) -150, risking 375 to win 250 :sadwave:

(ledger: +2799)

 

[tt boy]

Stepanek needs to retire if he can't beat a mug like Fognini:scared

 

[GoldenTaint]

Stepanek needs to retire if he can't beat a mug like Fognini:scared

It's all about circumstances, at least for wagering purposes.

 

[kickserv]

tt boy doesn't seem to realize the depth in men's tennis.

There is almost no difference between #200 and number 50, and 100 and 25, etc, etc. etc.

 

[tt boy]

yes Kick.You enlighten me my friend.I understand a tank job when I see one.Some of these jokers show up for the cheque and tank..Davy Soderling and that clown Melzer we saw last night are prime examples.I don't bet much tennis but I am unloading on Hanescu tomorrow to take care of Polansky.Anyway not going to get into a pissing match with you.Since you seem to know it all not only in tennis but every sport

 

[kickserv]

I only know 99 percent

 

[GoldenTaint]

yes Kick.You enlighten me my friend.I understand a tank job when I see one.Some of these jokers show up for the cheque and tank..Davy Soderling and that clown Melzer we saw last night are prime examples.I don't bet much tennis but I am unloading on Hanescu tomorrow to take care of Polansky.Anyway not going to get into a pissing match with you.Since you seem to know it all not only in tennis but every sport

I thought Melzer tried the first set. He seemed to accept the loss in the second. Is that tanking? In several weeks of close watching i've seen one match i would describe as tanked, and that was querrey losing to brown or was it young at newport.

Kick's right far more often than he's wrong, it seems to me.

I do appreciate any insight you or anyone else can offer, certainly. Hanescu, will be interesting to see the lines. Was on him last round and he won, many were against him.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all 8/11/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +2799)

Pick: Hanescu -2 games (Polansky) -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Errani +5 games (Li) +115, risking 300 to win 345 :sadwave:

Pick: Zvonareva-Kirilenko 20' games under +100, risking 300 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: FIVE INNINGS St. Louis-Cincinnati 4 under -120, risking 600 to win 500 PUSH

POST-analysis: right call, but bad-beat push. let me 'splain something to you, gomesy, old boy. when you have a bunch of sluggers in a row, and the ump is guarding the strike zone like a nun's pussy, you need to shuffle your feet a little faster to position yourself underneath catchable foul balls.

Pick: FIVE INNINGS CINCINNATI +1/2 (St. Louis) -125, risking 250 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: Djokovic-Benneteau 20' games under -105, risking 315 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: 4parlay:
SWEDEN -159 (Scotland) WIN
Kohlschreiber +111 (Troicki) WIN
Lu -127 (Mathieu) WIN
De Bakker +2 games (Monfils) -105 LOSS
risking 200 to win 2200 :sadwave:

Pick: Kohlschreiber +111 (Troicki), risking 400 to win 444 :0074

Pick: Querrey-Anderson 23' games under -108, risking 324 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Lu -127 (Mathieu), risking 127 to win 100 :0074

Pick: Lu-Mathieu 23' games under -145, risking 430 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: NEW YORK RED BULLS -157 (Toronto), risking 942 to win 600 :0074

why: NY played great last time out but ended up tied 0-0. i think they score this time, likely more than once. -1 at odds on is tempting, but if they win 1-0, want to get paid. this is not a chase, have been waiting for this one since ny's last game a few days ago.

Pick: Real Salt Lake-Philadelphia Union 2' goals under -109, risking 327 to win 300 :0074

(ledger: +2324)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all 8/12/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +2324)

PREVIEW: can't read Nalbandian-Soderling so staying away from that one. I like most of the favs today, so have to be doubly careful. Like Nads, Fed, Berdych, Djok to come through. Prices are too high for anything but parlays. Of the others, I like Kohlschreiber again, to beat Lu. Even if Lu weren't tired, he's a good kind for Kohls to beat. The price is in the most dangerous range (-300 to -220) so preferred to use in parlays rather than go big for 40% return. But may add straight up later. For the women I like Wozniacki at under 200. The women's matches have been dominated by favorites and unders. Doubt it reverses today, but it should be more 50-50. More competitive matches, and longer ones. So I go with the likeliest dogs + the games. Defensible to take them straight up, might even be smarter, but I will give up the higher yield for the higher win percentage

Pick: 5parlay:
Berdych -630 (Dolgopolov) WIN
Kohlschreiber -217 (Lu) WIN
Djokovic -500 (Hanescu) WIN
Wickmayer +3 games (Li) -110 WIN
Wozniacki -180 (Bartoli) LOSS
risking 200 to win 1006 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: bartoli put on an awesome display, tough because the rest of the picks in this parlay probably win. woz loses in her second match after winning e-boks in native denmark.

Pick: Berdych -630 (Dolgopolov), risking 315 to win 50 :0074

Pick: Gil +135 (Bohli), risking 200 to win 270 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
Berdych -630 (Dogopolov) WIN
Federer -900 (Llodra) WIN
Nadal -1350 (Anderson) WIN
risking 300 to win 149 :0074

Pick: Vesnina +2' games (Ivanovic) -110, risking 330 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Vesnina-Ivanovic 21' games over -120, risking 240 to win 200 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: pushed vesnina one match too far. didn't see it, don't know what happened. ivanovic is playing well, but that doesn't explain this complete blowout

Pick: Zvonareva +2' games (Pennetta) -110, risking 330 to win 300 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: second day my average picks are going down easy. problem is matches aren't on. correct response would have been to play these 1/2 as large and wait til they were. also seem to be underrating pennetta, have lost on her 2-3x in a row.

Pick: Wickmayer +3 games (Li) -110, risking 330 to win 300 :0074

POST-analysis: second straight match wick comes from behind to win outright

Pick: Pavlyuchenko -2 games (Peer) -105, risking 315 to win 300 PUSH

Pick: Jankovic -555 (Amanmuradova), risking 555 to win 100 :sadwave:

PRE-analysis: carefully measured risk vs return. loss here is painful but not terrible, whereas a win isn't huge, but not negligible either.

Pick: Kohlschreiber -232 (Lu), risking 696 to win 300 :0074

why: strongest pick on men's side today. don't like the price at all, but it should win

Pick: Davydenko -230 (Chardy), risking 460 to win 200 :sadwave:

why: very dangerous pick as davydenko has been playing shitty until last match, and chardy well. my guess is chardy's run is over and davydenko schools him with rediscovered form. this IS a bit of a chase pick out of disgust at woz's probable loss

POST-analysis: indefensible, not even a good or fun chase

Pick: Kohlschreiber-Lu 22' games under -116, risking 348 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: SAN FRANCISCO +2' (Cubs) -495, risking 495 to win 100 :0074

Pick: Djokovic-Hanescu 21 games under -110, risking 330 to win 300 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
SAN DIEGO +2' (Pittsburgh) -800 WIN
PHILADELPHIA +2' (Dodgers) -240 WIN
risking 400 to win 238 :0074

Pick: 3teaser (+12' points):
BALTIMORE +8' (Carolina) WIN
SASKATECHEWAN +4' (B.C.) WIN
B.C.-Saskatchewan 67 under WIN
risking 400 to win 200 :0074

Pick: FIRST HALF SASKATCHEWAN -220 (B.C.), risking 220 to win 100 :0074

(ledger: +1828)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all 8/13/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +1828)

Pick: Amanmuradova +4 games (Ivanovic) -115, risking 460 to win 400 :sadwave:

why: i will continue to fade Ivanovic, just can't believe she is that much better than these others

POST-analysis: slaughter. out of nowhere, iivanovic is playing very well.

Pick: Murray-Nalbandian 23' games under +116, risking 400 to win 464 :0074

why: think there's a good shot for this. any kind of crack by either and this cashes. and it's odds on.

Pick: (Fr L2) Istres pk (Tours) -124, risking 496 to win 400 :0074

Pick: (Fr L2) Evian TG +105 (Vannes), risking 200 to win 210 :0074

Pick: (Fr L2) Le Mans -117 (Reims), risking 234 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: (Holland) Veendam-Telstar 3 goals under -131, risking 393 to win 300 :0074

why: these Fr 2 are follows.

Pick: (Por.) Sporting Braga -1 (Portimonense) -155, risking 310 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Bartoli +4 games (Sharapova) -120, risking 600 to win 500 :sadwave:

Pick: Bartoli +240 (Sharapova), risking 500 to win 1200 :sadwave:

why: warning: this could be an overreaction on my part to bartoli's excellent play yesterday. many smarties elsewhere bemoaned woz's giving up or shabby play. that was not what i saw. i saw bartoli blow her off the court with precision and power. i don't think four games is reasonable here, i think this is basically a tossup, with line shaded due to shara's ancient-history 3-0 record over bartoli. sharapova has played well lately, and she is mentally tough. but i don't think she is markedly less likely to hit UE than bartoli, and i think that is where this match turns. as we saw in the finals in calif the other week, enough pressure from a good player and 'pova will come with the UE. it sure looked like bartoli is capable of doing that judging by her performance yesterday. the games pick here is just to protect against a close loss. it's just to set up a nice shot for the +240. if they both lose, well, tears are free. they don't call it gambling for nothing, and this is a nice spot for a nice shot. one last point: i'm not doing it myself because of the price -140, but the over 20' is attractive. just don't like overs, and if it happened that bartoli dominated the match, or that i was completely wrong and sharapova did, the 20' could easily go down at 700 to win 500. i have found over years that when in doubt is far preferable to pick either a side or a total, but not to bet both unless you have a particular scenario in mind and are allowed to parlay or tease them. just too hard to beat both at the same time, and too irritating when your win is undercut by a loss.

POST-analysis: my analysis had no relation to this match. bartoli played like frozen cardboard. might have been intimidation, but she never really warmed up and got aggressive and attacked, and sharapova was in excellent form until the last couple games when her serve left. bizarre match, really didn't follow from what i'd seen at all, very disappointing. usually pretty easy to see in the match why your bet was wrong, but here i cant see any explanation at all for why bartoli played like she did. didn't appear injured, but appeared extremely stiff from the start, for no apparent reason. it's very hot and muggy there in cincinnati, she moved fine yesterday. really unaccountable but a horrible loss to be sure.

NOTE: 5d is offering LIVE betting on bartoli and federer (and other) matches

Pick: 2parlay:
Cubs +2' (St. Louis) -165 LOSS
CINCINNATI +2' (Florida) -240 WIN
risking 400 to win 510 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Hamilton +11' (Winnipeg) WIN
Hamilton-Winnipeg 61 under LOSS
risking 200 to win 156 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Hamilton +11' (Winnipeg) WIN
Hamilton-Winnipeg 47 over WIN
risking 200 to win 167 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
Hamilton +170 (Winnipeg) WIN
TEXAS +2' (Boston) WIN
WHITE SOX +2' (Detroit) WIN
risking 300 to win 1112 :0074

(ledger: +2287)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all 8/14/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +2287)

Pick: Everton pk (Blackburn) -134, risking 402 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Ivanovic-Clijsters 20' games over -135, risking 540 to win 400 CANCELED (Ivanovic ret.)

Pick: Ivanovic wins in 2 sets +630, risking 100 to win 630 CANCELED (Ivanovic ret.)

why: in this sort of match, if there is an upset, it is very often that the favorite doesn't show up or can't win a set, and +630 is a much better payout than +297

Pick: (Belgium) MECHELEN -1/2 (Lierse) -125, risking 375 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Murray wins 2-1 in sets +371, risking 200 to win 742 :sadwave:

Pick: Nadal -150 (Murray), risking 300 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Nadal -120 (Murray), risking 120 to win 100 :sadwave:

NOTE: placed 1 set Murray 4-3, Nadal to serve. Murray got a bit lucky last game, I think Nadal wins this. Probably will regret not hitting live harder, but want to leave some room in case Murray gets up a break.

Pick: LIVE: Nadal +210 (Murray), risking 200 to win 420 :sadwave:

NOTE: placed after first set (Murray 6-3, Nadal to serve to open 2nd set)

POST-analysis: nadal was up to +500 and +800 live late in match. murray played well, but this was still very close, under optimal circumstances for murray + a stolen game in the first set when a call was missed. the missed call might have turned the match. my live bets were after that point, as i expected nadal to come back. next time they play, nadal will win and the price will be better, that's the only good out of this one. it is really amazing that there is ever a price as high as +500, let alone +800 on nadal. for some reason i have a feeling wind hurts the better players and helps the inferior ones. i feel they cannot produce the extra 1-2% curls that separate them from the rest because they dont trust the wind not to blow the point out. might be wrong, but i'm getting tired of these stupid elements-influenced outdoor matches. even though the atmosphere sucks indoors, it is much more fun to watch a pure match where it comes down entirely to the player's ability, with no influence from wind.

Pick: (MLS) NEW YORK pk/-1/2 (Los Angeles) -105, risking 263 to win 250 :sadwave:

Pick: Federer-Djokovic 23' games under +110, risking 400 to win 440 :sadwave:

why: if i hadn't lost big the last two big matches, i'd probably be on djok here, but i dont feel confident at all. if fed beat berdych, he can certainly beat djok. the games is a great price, i think it's about 60-40 it cashes and i'm getting odds on.

NOTE: will also be betting this live if i see anything good. live has every last possible advantage for the bettor.

Pick: LIVE: Djokovic +153 (Federer), risking 100 to win 153 :sadwave:

NOTE: placed at Djok to serve 3-4 in third set

Pick: 2teaser (+11 points):
TORONTO +18' (Montreal) WIN
Montreal-Toronto 63 under WIN
risking 500 to win 193 :0074

Pick: Columbus-Salt Lake draw +220, risking 400 to win 840 :sadwave:

why: RSL hasn't lost at home in 20+ games, nearly the longest streak in msl history. i dont think they lose here, but dont think they win either. that means draw.

(ledger: +393)

 

[kickserv]

keep it going GoldenTaint.....well done so far:SIB

 

[CapMan]

playing all 4 tennis semi dogs today figuring 2 will win and I'll wind up on the + side. See good value in all 4.

 

[GoldenTaint]

keep it going GoldenTaint.....well done so far:SIB

intend to. nice call on hamilton. let us know if you have a lean on tonight.

 

[GoldenTaint]

playing all 4 tennis semi dogs today figuring 2 will win and I'll wind up on the + side. See good value in all 4.

yeah, these are hard to call indeed. i just dont trust murray, or going against nadal. he did look pretty spotty yesterday, but he can always play better, and his will/mentality are not questionable. murray is fully capable of going down at any time, altho he looks good and has won here. prefer djok to murray as the dog. but will probably just live bet and throw some on first guy to get down a break at double the payback. had a little on ivanovic at just under +500 down one break early first set, then she retired.