New Picks Thread (all sports)

GoldenTaint

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COMMENT: definitely learned some things in tennis this week, and they should mean greater profits in next batch of tournaments. starting to develop a feel for CFL, and continuing to work on developing a feel for international soccer and MLS. for those trying to make money at this who haven't looked into it, try tennis and soccer. they have a few considerable advantages today over the traditional American sports:

1) matches are short. tennis matches, apart from slams, are 3-setters, for men and women. the vast majority of matches are finished well within 2 hours. all soccer matches are done in two hours, with no commercials! by contrast, MLB and NFL are pushing four hours.

2) matches take place in off hours. europe is 5-8 hours ahead of america, which fits the US workday perfectly: their games during the day; our games in the evening. even some australian/asian events in the wee hours and early morning.

3) with tennis you get the same person playing multiple days in a row. baseball seems to have this advantage, but it's diffused over an entire team, whereas tennis is one or at most two people. this is a real advantage. tennis tournaments run about 20 hours a day, and the same people are playing day after day, week after week, event after events, singles and often doubles. don't have to wait too long for the next solid opportunity.

4) events are online. this wasn't the case even a few years ago. now through atdhe.net and livescorehunter.com you can see, daily, a very large number of tennis and soccer matches, no matter where they are played, whether in europe, asia, or the states. you could even bet them live, like europeans and australians do, if we lived in a free country.
 
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GoldenTaint

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(all 8/1/10 picks in this p-o-s-t)

(ledger: +1421)

Pick: (PGA) FOURTH ROUND, Walker +100 (Byrd), risking 300 to win 300 :0074

why: tailing Stanley here. he's 8-5 on his posted round picks this week, with three to go.

Pick: Malisse-Giraldo 22' games under -128, risking 256 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: 3parlay:
Kamke -160 (Raonic)
WIN
Azarenka -103 (Sharapova)
WIN
Murray -365 (Querrey)
LOSS
risking 100 to win 301
:sadwave:

why: going light on this because line dropping on kamke. he's been winning lately, but raonic is local boy, and there may be something i don't know. but kamke is better. also like murray to overcome lucky querrey, and think sharapova will be a little too tired, and happy with what she's already accomplished, to beat azarenka, who has been playing great, and, like sharapova, is mentally strong

Pick: Azarenka -104 (Sharapova), risking 312 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Murray -375 (Querrey), risking 375 to win 100 :sadwave:

why: passed up unders on earlier two championships and both cashed. would like to bet 23 games under here but just can't trust either player not to yield a set. the only thing i'm sure enough to take is murray beating querrey. i'm only sure enough on that to do it one time, since querrey has had eerily good luck this tournament, and it wouldnt be a HUGE surprise if he knocked off murray. if i were going to pick querrey, i would definitely take the 2-1 in sets at +667

POST-analysis: querrey win completes an incredible run, not in a good sense, in an i-can't-believe-that-bullshit sense. he was within one or two points of losing his last three matches, and all of his opponents self-destructed. very dumb of me not to hedge the parley on querrey to win in 3 sets. dont waste any futures money on over-promoted murray come US Open, he is too weak mentally to win it. here he got mad after querrey didn't quite fold, and started overhitting the ball and soon was broken and done.

Pick: (MLS) FIRST HALF Chicago-L.A. 1 goals under -110, risking 440 to win 400 :sadwave:

why: just don't see two goals in 1h, so either push or win

POST-analysis: 2 goals in first five minutes. probably not another for the rest of the match.

Pick: SAN FRANCISCO +2' (Dodgers) -270, risking 540 to win 200 :0074

why: tailing a smart guy who is on sf straight up. last pick of day after ridiculous downturn in last hour.

(ledger: +1050)
 
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THE KOD

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Victory Lane
002un2.jpg

...............................................................

sure is a greasy little beech
 

CapMan

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And she's about to go down a set 6-2...I have some coin on her...need a big 2nd set to restore confidence.
 

GoldenTaint

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what's your take on Starace today? any chance?

Sure he has a chance. And at +200, an attractive chance.

But

I backed Seppi yesterday, and JCF blew him out of the water. My basic strategy in tennis is bet on the guy who makes fewer unforced errors. Any time you depart from that, you're taking a real risk. So I try not to. Starace overcame Ljubicic with all the crowd pulling for Ljubicic, so he's mentally strong. But JCF just doesn't hit the ball out.

If you like Starace, there are three levels to consider: +3' games -105, to win 2-0 sets at +425, as well as just plain win at +200.

Personally, I'm not interested going against JCF after what I saw yesterday. No sign of cracking. I'm still reading around to see if any smarties have a good reason to take one side or another. Right now, I'd lean toward the under 22 +105, just because you win if either guy cracks, and a crack can be as little as a single broken serve. If I do pick, I'll post above, and give my reasoning. I mean, I just paid several hundred dollars for a nut-kick lesson in not backing JCF opponents unless you have a real solid reason, and I don't see any solid, specific reason to think Starace will beat JCF. The +200 is nice, but it doesn't mean anything unless we cash, and the fact it's higher than the 40-60 i would have thought tells me there's a history or some other factor between them I'm not aware of. I trust the linesmakers, unless I have a very strong feel for what I think will happen, based on what I've seen.

Could Starace beat JCF? Sure. Starace is a very good player. But I've seen most of their matches this week, and I can't give you a single reason I think that outcome WILL happen, and if I'm betting a dog, I like to have at least one good reason (besides the line). JCF doesn't make unforced errors, which means Starace has to BEAT him, and I don't see anything he has that Ferrero doesn't have at least as strong.
 
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GoldenTaint

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(all 8/2/10 picks in this p-o-s-t)

(ledger: +1050)

WEEK PREVIEW: bunch more tennis starting after midnight. we'll see if can apply lessons learned this week. expecting to have a bunch of tennis picks this week, and more soccer too, as have found at least one person who seems to know what he's doing. will also throw in some extremely selective baseball picks. more cfl come next weekend. it's a wonderful little bite-sized league, with only eight teams. that means most games have some fairly predictable incentives and circumstances, which is good for feel pickers.

Pick: 4parlay:
Kerber -230 (Voracova)
WIN
Barrois/Malek -245 (Foretz/Sfar)
WIN
Gil -400 (Bemelmans)
WIN
Cipolla -500 (Virgili)
WIN
risking 100 to win 200
:0074

Pick: Valerenga -224 (Start), risking 224 to win 100 :0074

Pick: Odens BK -136 (Horsens), risking 136 to win 100 :sadwave:

Pick: Klein +380 (Sela), risking 200 to win 760 :sadwave:

why: Klein playing well lately, i think there's a solid shot at an upset

POST-analysis: real close but no cigar. Klein is not far from beating mediocre pros like Sela.

Pick: Rezai -130 (Kleybanova), risking 260 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: 13parlay:
Tursunov -140 (Gabashvili)
WIN
Lacko +2 games (De Bakker) -118
LOSS
Berrer -170 (Beck)
WIN
Istomin -135 (Mayer)
WIN
Kunitsyn +2' games (Nishikori) +110
WIN
Li -1400 (Pliskova)
WIN
Govortsova-Errani 21' games under -135
LOSS
Dulko/Pennetta -1000 (Grandin/Spears)
LOSS
Kuznetsova/V.Zvonareva -530 (Hsieh/Shaughnessy)
WIN
Levine -210 (Harrison)
WIN
Guccione -135 (Witten)
WIN
Bogdanovic -115 (Cook)
LOSS
Muller -230 (Yani)
WIN
risking 10 to win 3081
:sadwave:

Pick: Schuettler-Marchenko 22' games under -112, risking 224 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: Lacko +2 games (De Bakker) -118, risking 354 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Sweeting +3' games (Blake) +105, risking 300 to win 315 :0074

Pick: 2parlay
Houston +2' (St. Louis) -265
WIN
Kuznetsova/Zvonareva -400 (Hsieh/Shaughnessy)
WIN
risking 554 to win 400
:0074

PRE-analysis: as hou scores 2 to tie at 4 t8, the wise thing to do would be to drop 1 or 200 on the dog in the doubles match (although i am not going to do that). the line is diving just the way the murray line dove before his match with querrey. as you will recall beavis yielded to the llama. just saying i'd be real careful betting on the fav in doubles, already one -1000 has gone down today.

Pick: Safina -121 (Bondarenko), risking 363 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Muller -210 (Yani), risking 420 to win 200 :0074

(ledger: +1391)
 
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CapMan

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anxious to see what she does on the hard surface, she hits lasers on clay..should be a tight match but I see her prevailing with her ability to create break opportunities. We'll see..1st rounds are always tricky
 

GoldenTaint

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anxious to see what she does on the hard surface, she hits lasers on clay..should be a tight match but I see her prevailing with her ability to create break opportunities. We'll see..1st rounds are always tricky

she's definitely worth at least a shot.
 

GoldenTaint

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(all 8/3/10 picks in this p-o-s-t)

(ledger: +1391)

Pick: 2parlay:
Glatch +3 games (Srebotnik) +100
LOSS
Baltacha -461 (Erakovic)
WIN
risking 300 to win 430
:sadwave:

Pick: King-Turner -130 (de la Nava), risking 260 to win 200 :sadwave:

why: tailing smarties on glatch and king-turner; liked what i saw from baltacha last week, so throw her in to juice up the return

Pick: Edjesgaard +715 (Malek), risking 200 to win 1430 :sadwave:

Pick: Edjesgaard +6' games (Malek) +140, risking 200 to win 280 :sadwave:

why: dane in denmark; great return; malek not in top health

POST-analysis: edjesgaard wins one game out of two sets. i had never seen her before, was again following someone fairly sharp. no more of that. until i find someone better to tail i will rely on my own picks so i at least know where my reasoning was wrong if i lose.

Pick: White Sox +2' (Detroit) -360, risking 360 to win 100 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
Goerges/Groenefeld -310 (Klemenschits/Klepac)
WIN
Daniilidou/Woehr -185 (Diatchenko/Poutchek)
LOSS
risking 300 to win 312
:sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay
Wozniacki -1560 (Martic)
WIN
Zheng -322 (Perry)
WIN
risking 300 to win 118
:0074

Pick: 2parlay:
Radwanska -595 (Scheepers)
Dulko -326 (Vandeweghe)
LOSS (ret.)
risking 300 to win 157
:sadwave:

POST-analysis: Dulko was either injured going in (which I saw no mention of) or got injured during. She did not win a game.)

Pick: 3parlay:
Fish -260 (Troicki)
WIN
Kunitsyn +140 (Simon)
LOSS
Isner -270 (De Bakker)
risking 100 to win 355
:sadwave:

Pick: Lu-Falla 22' games under -114, risking 230 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Sweeting-Llodra 23 games under -105, risking 315 to win 300 :0074

Pick: FLORIDA +2' (Philadelphia) -165, risking 330 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Cincinnati +2' (Pittsburgh) -450
WIN
Oudin -410 (Hampton), risking 410
WIN
risking 400 to win 208
:0074

Pick: DODGERS +2' (San Diego) -275, risking 550 to win 200 :0074

(ledger: +527)
 
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GoldenTaint

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(all 8/4/10 picks in this p-o-s-t)

(ledger: +527)

Pick: Goerges -253 (Barrois), risking 506 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Gil -185 (Machado), risking 185 to win 100 :sadwave:

Pick: Lapushchenkova +4' games (Pironkova) -125, risking 250 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Partizan Belgrade-HJK Helsinki 2? goals under -140, risking 420 to win 300 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: score in last ten seconds of added time pushes it over

Pick: Unirea Uriceni +1' goals (Zenit St Petersburg) +105, risking 300 to win 315 :0074

Pick: Wehen pk (Burghausen) -127, risking 381 to win 300 PUSH

Pick: Sporting Braga-Celtic 2' goals under -118, risking 354 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: Marchenko +4 games (Gulbis) -125, risking 250 to win 200 Canceled (Gulbis ret.)

Pick: 3parlay
YANKEES +2' (Toronto) -450
WIN
ST. LOUIS +2' (Houston) -690
Stepanek -159 (Chiudinelli)
LOSS
risking 300 to win 384
:sadwave:

Pick: Stepanek -170 (Chiudinelli), risking 340 to win 200 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: yet again burned by taking player who hasn't played recently. Stepanek had near breaks almost every Chud serve but couldn't pull through. My guess he'll make a nice run in his next tournament.

Pick: 2parlay
Golubev -260 (Vliegen)
WIN
Baghdatis -320 (Zeballos)
WIN
risking 489 to win 400
:0074

Pick: Golubev -300 (Vliegen), risking 600 to win 200 :0074

Pick: 3parlay:
COLORADO +2' (San Francisco) -500
WIN
Philadelphia +2' (Florida) -280
WIN
Fish/Knowles -245 (Melo/Soares)
WIN
risking 400 to win 516
:0074

(ledger: +759)
 
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CapMan

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I got Golubev at -235...leaning towards Kleybanova over Jankovic coming off retirement.

Unfortunately, in my second round match, I was up 61 20 and went running for a ball and twisted my ankle. I had to retire and I haven't hit since then. I'm still recovering. I came back to Serbia afterwards and have a whole team of doctors helping me get healthy as fast as possible. They have been with me for a long time so I know they are doing everything they can.

Injuries aren't welcome but that's part of the sport. I've had some really bad luck in my last two tournaments but you hope for the best and keep working hard. I am back at No.2 in the rankings now and I've been playing well, I just pray my health will be all right so I can continue to do my job the best I can.
 
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GoldenTaint

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I got Golubev at -235...leaning towards Kleybanova over Jankovic coming off retirement.

I hope Golubev is ready to play. He lost first round last match, so I hope he's over that and ready to go. It is super dangerous to take any player off layoff, it seems. I wouldn't touch Jankovic, no idea where that will go.
 

CapMan

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Both winners with Golubev and Kleybanova..going with Cirstea -125 to start the day. :0008 :0008
 
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GoldenTaint

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(all 8/5/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +759)

Pick: Handtuchova-Zheng 21' games under -118, risking 236 to win 200 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
Philadelphia +2' (Florida) -375
WIN
ATLANTA +2' (San Francisco) -300
WIN
risking 400 to win 276
:0074

Pick: Internacional +1/2 goal (Sao Paulo) -131, risking 393 to win 300 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Kuznetsov -345 (Errani)
WIN
Nalbandian -455 (Chiudinelli)
WIN
risking 400 to win 228
:0074

Pick: Cilic -115 (Fish), risking 575 to win 500 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
Texas +2' (Seattle) -335
WIN
San Diego +2' (Dodgers) -255
WIN
risking 300 to win 242
:0074

(ledger: +1812)
 
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GoldenTaint

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(all 8/6/10 picks in this post)

(ledger: +1812)

ARTICLE: on Coco Vandeweghe, could be the next big thing, US/women.

Pick: Chakvetadze -172 (Hercog), risking 516 to win 300 :0074

why: see no reason to get off this train.

Pick: Diatchenko/Poutcheck -120 (Keothavong/Smith), risking 240 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Kerber +4' games (Li) -110, risking 330 to win 300 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: slaughter. bet too much for not seeing either one coming in, just noting Kerber seemed to be playing well. kills parlay too.

Pick: 6parlay:
Berdych -355 (Malisse)
LOSS
Cilic -215 (Tipsarevic)
Nalbandian -285 (Simon)
Kuznetsova -520 (Vandeweghe)
Goerges +335 (Wozniacki)
Kerber +335 (Li)
LOSS
risking 100 to win 5623
:sadwave:

why: long shot, but more like a 1/25 chance of cashing than 1/56. will be surprised if the first four don't hit, and there's certainly a decent chance one of the last two hits. of course, need both to win it, but that could happen too, although not likely

Pick: Berdych -355 (Malisse), risking 710 to win 200 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: yet again burned by taking heavy favorite too soon off layoff. misjudged malisse thinking his recent play would leave him tired and satisfied coming in, but he showed no evidence of either, and it seemed his recent good form was what pushed him through here, as it was the playing-into-form berdych who made the crucial unforced errors most matches turn on.

Pick: 3parlay:
Haase -205 (Machado)
WIN
Aguilar -210 (Cipolla)
LOSS
Berlocq +220 (Starace)
risking 100 to win 603
:sadwave:

Pick: Goerges +5 games (Wozniacki) -125, risking 525 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Stosur -2 games (Pennetta) -118, risking 472 to win 400 :sadwave:

Pick: (PGA) SECOND ROUND Campbell -170 (Bourdy), risking 340 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: (seniors) FIRST ROUND Allem -145 (Watson), risking 290 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: Berlocq +220 (Starace), risking 200 to win 440 :sadwave:

Pick: Kleybanova-Handtuchova 21' games under -112, risking 448 to win 400 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Kuznetsova -520 (Vandeweghe)
WIN
Nalbandian -290 (Simon)
WIN
risking 500 to win 302
:0074

Pick: 2teaser (10' points):
Saskatchewan +17' (Montreal)
WIN
Saskatchewan-Montreal 70' under
WIN
risking 626 to win 261
:0074

Pick: Cilic -3 games (Tipsarevic) +100, risking 300 to win 300 PUSH

POST-comment: Cilic blows three consecutive match points to turn win into push.

Pick: Radwanska-Peer 21' games under -123, risking 492 to win 400 :0074

Pick: SECOND HALF Toronto +250 (Edmonton), risking 200 to win 500 :sadwave:

(ledger: +485)
 
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