(all 8/19/10 picks in this post)
(ledger: +1982)
PREVIEW THURSDAY: Berdych is the big bet here. opened at 270 already up to 300 at 5d. he will win, but the number may get a lot worse before some books open it. 8 men's matches: quick leans: nadal, berdych, pass on gasquet/fish, take gulbis + games, upset is possible, butt-head looked a little heat-queasy yesterday, i think he'll pull through probably, but certainly would not back him as fav vs gulbis, not even in parlay. djok over nalb. WOMEN'S: live dogs: benesova, kanepi, szavay, wozniacki. favs: azarenka over li, safina over schiavone. clijsters won last tournament. she damn near checked out last night against a +770 dog, the unheralded mattek-sands. now she faces a real comer, kanepi, who is priced at +500. betting clisters at that price is unthinkable, it's not even good in parlay. that's a very live dog at +500 given the now double circumstance of clisters having won, being tired, facing an even better player in short turnaround. no way kanepi lets her out of hole like sands did. but it shows clisters' great will, and that's why kanepi + games is necessary if you take the ml. i'll probably take both, but will wait as games not out yet.
Pick: Benesova +5 games (Bartoli) +110, risking 200 to win 220 :sadwave:
Pick: Azarenka -190 (Li), risking 570 to win 300 :0074
PRE-analysis: Azarenka's just better than Li. 190 is fair. as for other, i dont get that line at all based on what i've seen, so it must reflect history between the two. benesova had a breakthrough last match, so maybe she'll be satisfied here, but i wouldn't touch bartoli after her terrible performance concluding last tournament. the line on games and ml seem so wildly off that it is certain there is something i don't know. hence 200 instead of 500.
Pick: 10parlay:
Nadal -1850 (Benneteau) WIN
Berdych -274 (Baghdatis) LOSS
Davydenko +134 (Ferrer) WIN
Djokovic -161 (Nalbandian) WIN
Benesova +5 games (Bartoli) -108 LOSS
Azarenka -197 (Li) WIN
Kanepi +5 games (Clijsters) -145 LOSS
Radwanska +101 (Kuznetsova) LOSS
Safina -132 (Schiavone) LOSS
risking 100 To Win 10,873 :sadwave:
why: this is a SPECULATIVE parlay. means i expect it to lose. that expectation is not manifested in the looseness of the picks that make up the parlay but in the proportion of the $ risked in relation to the other bets. i dont post anything on here without thought behind it, is what i'm saying. in the rare cases i do an anger-management failure bet, i label it as such - a CHASE. so, within this 10p, i do expect each of the individual props it contains to win. non-spec parlays, most of ones i post, are fully expected to win, like a regular bet.
Pick: Fish-Gasquet 23' games under -120, risking 240 to win 200 :0074
Pick: Gulbis +4 games (Murray) -135, risking 270 to win 200 :0074
Pick: (5) 4parlay
Nadal -1850 (Benneteau) WIN
Berdych -245 (Baghdatis) LOSS
Soderling -186 (Roddick) LOSS
Djokovic -152 (Nalbandian) WIN
risking 400 to win 1360 :sadwave:
Pick: (SWE-S) Sundsvall -1/2 (Ljungskile) -115, risking 115 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Radwanska +115 (Kuznetsova), risking 500 to win 575 :sadwave:
why: now's the time to get off Kuz. she barely made it through yesterday, and i think she goes down here
POST-analysis: plenty of chances, even smoked her in second set, but radw is not as good a player as kooz. i thought circustances would be the difference, but not quite. not a bad call, but definitely too much on it for the risk given kuz is the better player. radw is solid but has no shot to hurt the top players, must rely on staying in the game until they break down mentally, kuz didnt do that today, although there were a couple openings
Pick: Kanepi +5 games (Clijsters) -145, risking 580 to win 400 :sadwave:
why: the ml has come back to reality, from +550 to +320. kanepi is quite good. clijsters needs full interest to win here, if it's not there, she will lose, very possible. maybe this will be a repeat of the benesova waxing i was on the wrong side of, but i doubt it
Pick: 2parlay:
YANKEES +2' (Detroit) -750 WIN
CUBS +2' (San Diego) -195 WIN
risking 400 to win 280 :0074
Pick: Djokovic -148 (Nalbandian), risking 592 to win 400 :0074
Pick: Benesova/Strychova -110 (Garrigues/Yan), risking 440 to win 400 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: bet this because figured benesova was steaming after winning only one game in her singles match earlier today. theory looked good when she and stryc took first set, but they faded after that
Pick: Berdych -253 (Baghdatis), risking 1012 to win 400 :sadwave:
why: strongest pick of day on men's side, first bet >1000
POST-analysis: great play by baghdatis. should have respected line movement, which after initial move up headed down beneath 250 due to knee problem for berdych. not a good bet in retrospect. even so, 95% pros would not have been able to keep up with the shots berdych was hitting, baghdatis did a great job, refused to hit UE and outlasted berdych. maybe the knee took just enough away...
Pick: Kanepi +310 (Clijsters), risking 500 to win 1550 :sadwave:
why: can't resist. K has made me more money than all other female players, the lines has been dropping since it first came out, Clijsters may well not be real interested, and she is also playing in a tournament after winning the last one, and may be tired after last night's rough comeback, and may semiconsciously want to leave and prepare for US Open. worth a good solid shot for a huge return
POST-analysis: kanepi can barely win a point on her own serve, clijsters in top form. paid a loooot of money for this lesson. hope it takes!
Pick: (CHASE) 4parlay:
Cincinnati -138 (Arizona) WIN
Soderling -170 (Roddick) LOSS
Davydenko +128 (Ferrer) WIN
Safina -133 (Schiavone) LOSS
risking 500 to win 4970 :sadwave:
why: this is a chase, but a calculated one. if it loses, back to careful single bets and 2p until i'm up a few k again
Pick: SECOND HALF Winnipeg-Montreal 25' under -110, risking 440 to win 400 :0074
(ledger: -370)
