One of the weirdest lines i've seen for this thursday match: gulbis +115 to simon. That is bizarre, i can't see why gulbis would be the dog, simon isn't that great.
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- Thread starter GoldenTaint
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One of the weirdest lines i've seen for this thursday match: gulbis +115 to simon. That is bizarre, i can't see why gulbis would be the dog, simon isn't that great.
I've got Simon in this one..he's such a patient player and a match-up nightmare in my opinion for Gulbis. Of course if Gulbis is on he can power right through him, but I value Simon higher than most.
I played Nalbandian as well and am looking at Ferrer..but this Giraldo guy scares the bejeezes out of me...such a grinder.
Giraldo's been playing well. I have to take Gulbis at odds on, he's simply better than Simon. His scare was two matches ago, I think he wins this one fairly easily.
Isn't Gulbis' "M.O." losing matches he should win? I don't recall him winning many titles.
Career titles is 7-1 Simon
Career titles is 7-1 Simon
I don't know about titles. I really don't pay attention to much except mental strength, basic talent and very recent matches. The rest is pretty much subsumed in those. Yes, gulbis is certainly capable of losing to anyone at any time. He's a bit of a flake. But, he has a lot of talent, and can almost beat anyone at at any time. The difference here is that Simon's just not that good. There's no huge pressure here or reason that better shouldn't beat worse. Of course, I could be wrong, but at odds on, I'll take this every time unless I have a specific reason to think gulby is going on tilt.
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I think you said it best, Gulby goes on tilt...Simon makes you hit a ton of shots to earn a point.
about as pure a meltdown as one will see, and for no apparent reason. watched the match but for some reason no audience, so not sure what set gulbis off. he seems not to like heat, and the minute one little thing goes against him, he gives up. he's also lazy. he simply won't move his feet to get in the optimal position to return a shot, he just swipes at it. i won on him last two matches and should have walked with this one easily, but instead he had one bad game and mentally retired.
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Once he lost that first set, I believe he had set point before the tie breaker, he just mailed it in. He basically said, "Do I really want to spend the next 2 hours trading shots with this guy?"
Simon is going to be a handful in the final for either guy tomorrow. I think he had some tough injuries that derailed him a bit the past few years.
It's interesting you interpret it that way; I don't see it that way at all. In my view, the outcome had nothing to do with Simon. Gulbis had one bad point when he was serving up 5-4. then he funked, and lost that game at love, then he basically gave up. i'm amazed he even pushed it to a tiebreaker.
well, he's ok. i like him as a dog in spots, but i dont see him beating a true top player.
agreed..this is an ideal tournament for him. I knew I was taking Simon last night and was hoping the line would be Gulbis -155 Simon +125. When I saw it was the other way I knew I was sold on Simon. Gulbis and Berdych need to see a Sports Physcho..
Simon is 7-2 in career finals..not bad
(all Friday 1/14/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: +11,892)
Pick: Nalbandian -153, risking 1530 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: Nalbandian-Ferrer 23' under -140, risking 2800 to win 2000 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Dallas-San Antonio 195 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (9-14 1q 6:47) :0074
Pick: LIVE: SAN ANTONIO -14' (Dallas) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (22-37 2q ) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Portland-Phoenix 204 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (41-28 2q 8:56) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Portland-Phoenix 222' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (78-76 3q 4:46) :sadwave:
(ledger: +10,062)
(ledger: +11,892)
Pick: Nalbandian -153, risking 1530 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: Nalbandian-Ferrer 23' under -140, risking 2800 to win 2000 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Dallas-San Antonio 195 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (9-14 1q 6:47) :0074
Pick: LIVE: SAN ANTONIO -14' (Dallas) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (22-37 2q ) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Portland-Phoenix 204 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (41-28 2q 8:56) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Portland-Phoenix 222' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (78-76 3q 4:46) :sadwave:
(ledger: +10,062)
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i thought the line would be gulb -180 to -250. i saw the match but for some reason there was no audio, so i couldnt tell what set him off. it seemed to be one point. bizarre player. it will be interesting to see what the line is on troicki-simon
that's a tough call. they're both in the "serious" category to me, that means need a strong, specific reason to go against them. great example is ferrer over kamke - kamke would have beaten 90% of players that day, but ferrer found a way to get through. he's solid and doesn't quit. i still lean a little to nalb though. the line on the side seems about right. probably take the under myself.
I think Nalby does his thing in the first set and just overwhelms him..6-4, 6-3 depending who serves first. Ferrer is great at making adjustments and has even beaten Soderling a few times so pace won't be a huge factor. I will play this one small after some more research.
Here's a stumper..Simon -145 Troicki +115???
Is this the return of 2008 Simon when he was in the Top 10? I tend to think this is the year of Troicki and Wawrinka amongst others..
Here's a stumper..Simon -145 Troicki +115???
Is this the return of 2008 Simon when he was in the Top 10? I tend to think this is the year of Troicki and Wawrinka amongst others..
Nalby is now -165 so the money is coming in on Ferrer. Ricky Dimon picks Nalby..hmmmmm
Last 4 matches have gone 3 sets.
2010 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Canada
Toronto, Canada Hard R64 Nalbandian, David
7-5, 3-6, 6-3 Stats
2008 ARG vs. ESP DC Final
Argentina Hard RR Nalbandian, David
6-3, 6-2, 6-3
2007 ATP Masters Series Paris
France Hard Q Nalbandian, David
7-6(3), 6-7(3), 6-2 Stats
2007 US Open
NY, U.S.A. Hard R32 Ferrer, David
6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 Stats
2010 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Canada
Toronto, Canada Hard R64 Nalbandian, David
7-5, 3-6, 6-3 Stats
2008 ARG vs. ESP DC Final
Argentina Hard RR Nalbandian, David
6-3, 6-2, 6-3
2007 ATP Masters Series Paris
France Hard Q Nalbandian, David
7-6(3), 6-7(3), 6-2 Stats
2007 US Open
NY, U.S.A. Hard R32 Ferrer, David
6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 Stats
yeah, i tend to agree. i did ok on/against simon last year, but troicki really seems on up arc, and agree on wawrinka too. to me this seems like yesterday, the wrong guy is favored. i cant think of any weakness in troicki, he's almost always competitive, and i haven't seen him disintegrate like gulbis yesterday. i wouldn't be surprised if simon won, but like yesterday the line seems wrong to me. it may just be that i'm underrating simon. but even yesterday, he didn't show me anything. he was being mopped exactly as i expected through the first ten games: gulbis is a little better and was on a typical 64 pace. and then he got pissed off at a fly and just quit playing. i guess i could see simon prevailing in a close fight, but it seems to me with the odds on, in light of recent play, troicki is a better choice.
here's an iron law i've learned over the years: if you see a line that really confuses you, and you follow the thing closely, trust yourself. if you DONT follow the thing closely, trust the linesmakers.
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yeah, for sure it easily could again. i guess i lean a little more to troicki going under, but will probably put a little on both. ferrer is a true pro, but so is nalbster and he seems to be playing a little better to me.
