New Picks Thread (all sports)

[CapMan]

Arn won relatively easily..talk about a shocking run to start the year.

I'm having a hard time moving off of Kvitova for some reason. Petkovic looks TOO easy. Something about a lefty with a big first serve always makes me uncomfortable. Probably play Petkovic small.

Going with Stepanek to defeat Soderling. I think their games match up well and expect Step to hold serve throughout.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Arn won relatively easily..talk about a shocking run to start the year.

I'm having a hard time moving off of Kvitova for some reason. Petkovic looks TOO easy. Something about a lefty with a big first serve always makes me uncomfortable. Probably play Petkovic small.

Going with Stepanek to defeat Soderling. I think their games match up well and expect Step to hold serve throughout.

i dont think petkovic looks easy. i just think kvitova is a bit too irregular. i think she makes a few more UE and that's the difference.

arn was in peak form; i dont think she would normally beat wickmayer. i felt the whole match it was teetering on the edge, even in the last game. same with petkovic, she's at the top of her game. dont see any reason she doesn't follow on through and win.

 

[CapMan]

Soderling 1st serve at 87%...not good for Stepanek

 

[GoldenTaint]

Soderling 1st serve at 87%...not good for Stepanek

sod's gotten to be a great player. if he doesn't make UE, he hits the ball so hard that almost no one can beat him.

 

[CapMan]

disappointing..Step finally gets a crucial break and then he can't hold serve..showed some nerves there. Looks like a Soderling-Roddick slugfest is in the making..

 

[GoldenTaint]

disappointing..Step finally gets a crucial break and then he can't hold serve..showed some nerves there. Looks like a Soderling-Roddick slugfest is in the making..

i think anderson may come close. i think he can at least get a 67 out of this, so my money says. we'll see. then again, i am totally biased against roddick and have paid for it many times. the number on anderson +4' has jumped hugely. i got it 115, check back a little later it was -140, now -150. someone must think anderson's game tonight.

 

[CapMan]

I love picking against roddick...Anderson is just a bit too lead footed to keep up with Andy's shots..I hope he serves big. Either way, Soderling is winning this thing tomorrow.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Saturday 1/8/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: +9,989)

Pick: Petkovic -200 (Kvitova), risking 2000 to win 1000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: great play by kvitova, hardly missed a ball, played better than yesterday against pavy. petkovic played much worse, possibly due to back strain.

Pick: Tipsarevic-Malisse 23 under -104, risking 2080 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: Berdych-Wawrinka 23 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074

Pick: Federer-Davydenko 22' under -115, risking 2300 to win 2000 :0074

Pick: Kentucky-Pittsburgh 49 under +142, risking 2000 to win 2840 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Kentucky-Pittsburgh 47 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (0-0 1q 9:20) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Kentucky-Pittsburgh 46 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (0-0 1q 8:25) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Kentucky-Pittsburgh 43' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (0-0 1q 5:24) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Kentucky-Pittsburgh 42' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-0 2q start) :0074

Pick: LIVE: New Orleans-Seattle 46 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (3-0 1q 11m) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: New Orleans-Seattle 49' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (10-0 1q 6:21) :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: New Orleans -14 (Seattle) +110, risking 1000 to win 1100 (17-7 2q 11:38) :sadwave:

Pick: Soderling-Roddick 24 under -118, risking 2360 to win 2000 :0074

Pick: Soderling -2 (Roddick) -120, risking 2400 to win 2000 :0074

(ledger: +20,549)

 

[CapMan]

ended up playing Kvitova after the price moved so much. Figured she was worth a shot with that big serve.

Leaning Wawrinka. I'm not buying that simply changing calendar year allows Berdych to regain form.

Like the over there, both players go in and out of form so quickly. Can easily see 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 type of match.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ended up playing Kvitova after the price moved so much. Figured she was worth a shot with that big serve.

Leaning Wawrinka. I'm not buying that simply changing calendar year allows Berdych to regain form.

Like the over there, both players go in and out of form so quickly. Can easily see 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 type of match.

wawrinka's turning into a soderling. berdych's problems are mental, in my opinion, or maybe he's just not that good.

 

[CapMan]

Berdych is a headcase and doesn't trust his ground strokes enough. You'll see him try CRAZY shots at key points..like drop shots vs Nadal on a break point. Just stupid stuff. He needs to model his game after Soderling and he'd be OK. Perhaps a change of coach is needed.

Foolishly took Davy over Fed...donation

 

[GoldenTaint]

Berdych is a headcase and doesn't trust his ground strokes enough. You'll see him try CRAZY shots at key points..like drop shots vs Nadal on a break point. Just stupid stuff. He needs to model his game after Soderling and he'd be OK. Perhaps a change of coach is needed.

he seems lost, a lot of the time. like his head's elsewhere or he has self doubt. for no apparent reason. i lost a lot on him last year. he looked good in earlier rounds here, but wasn't in it at all today against wawrinka.

Foolishly took Davy over Fed...donation

i nearly went with the 4' but per usual, it's a half game short. what i found last year happened enough that it's more or less a law: take the favs -games and dog ml. for some reason, it is extremely difficult psychologically to take the favs minus the games. very hard to do, even when results show it's the right thing. wanted to take fed -400 too, but it just cant be justified. already threw away on nadal yesterday. yeah, fed probably wins, and usually his line is higher than 400, but damn, i want to feel like it's nearly a sure thing at 4:1, not like it's likelier than not.

 

[GoldenTaint]

really like soderling over roddick -155 and -2 and under 24. roddick is playing great, but i think he will crack. got it early, think the price goes up by match time, will be interesting to watch

 

[CapMan]

Soderling and Wawrinka

Malisse is on fire, but I think he cracks in the final. Wawrinka seems to be on a mission this year to crack the top 10 this year and stay there.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Soderling and Wawrinka

Malisse is on fire, but I think he cracks in the final. Wawrinka seems to be on a mission this year to crack the top 10 this year and stay there.

yep. wawrinka definitely.

 

[CapMan]

and the line reflects it..shocked by -300..was expecting -210 tops.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 1/9/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: +20,549)

Pick: Wawrinka -305 (Malisse), risking 3050 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Wawrinka-Malisse 22' under -131, risking 2620 to win 2000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: surprised Wawr dropped a set. Malisse is a very skilled player, but not dominant mentally. Not weakminded, just average. He will not beat the better players very often. he's perfect to go against after 2-3 wins. Wawrinka is high and going up even higher. If he can cut his errors, which aren't too bad now, he can possibly get near Soderling's level. he has that natural heft you see in the thick girls, which gives him power at a far lower energy price than the average types like Malisse have to pay. his backhand is wicked hahd, and his touch is fine. he's impressive. most of all, he's strong mentally. he wants to win, believes he's going to win, keeps fighting to win.

Pick: Baltimore-Kansas City 41 under 2200 -110, risking to win 2000 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Baltimore-Kansas City 40 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (3-7 2q 11m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Baltimore-Kansas City 36' over -115, risking 1150 to win 1000 (3-7 2q 1m) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Green Bay-Philadelphia 43 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (0-0 1q 10:44) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Green Bay-Philadelphia 41' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (0-0 1q 8m) :0074

Pick: Giraldo-Gimeno-Traver 22 under -117, risking 1170 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Boston College +4' (Nevada) +143, risking 3000 to win 4290 :sadwave:

(ledger: +24,929)

 

[GoldenTaint]

and the line reflects it..shocked by -300..was expecting -210 tops.

seems about right. wawr is better by a clear margin.

 

[CapMan]

I find myself in a similar situation when I played Kvitova in the final. The value is too good to pass up on with so many variables in play.

Both players have cruised to the finals. They have never faced each other so there is no history to point to like Federer 14-2 over Davydenko. To me its a toss up, and I'll take a shot at +230 on someone that rallied from a set down in the semi's. I like that moxy. Wawrinka has kept the cleaner sheet and took out Berdych, but is that REALLY impressive after what we saw in 2010 from T.B? I need to analyze some serve stats but leaning towards the juicy payout on X.M.

 

[GoldenTaint]

I find myself in a similar situation when I played Kvitova in the final. The value is too good to pass up on with so many variables in play.

Both players have cruised to the finals. They have never faced each other so there is no history to point to like Federer 14-2 over Davydenko. To me its a toss up, and I'll take a shot at +230 on someone that rallied from a set down in the semi's. I like that moxy. Wawrinka has kept the cleaner sheet and took out Berdych, but is that REALLY impressive after what we saw in 2010 from T.B? I need to analyze some serve stats but leaning towards the juicy payout on X.M.

I don't like Malisse under pressure. Maybe he squeezes out, but likelier he just loses. Wawrinka is showing signs of being mentally tough. Tips is kind of flaky or he would have beaten Malisse, and Wawrinka is as good as Tips and not flaky.