have to take Camerin +1000...if your name isn't Serena or Clijsters you shouldn't be minus 2K in the zany world of ladies ping pong.
New Picks Thread (all sports)
- Thread starter GoldenTaint
- Start date
(all Wednesday 3/2/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -58,077)
Pick: Jovanovski -230 (U. Radwanska), risking 2300 to win 1000 (wednesday) :0074
Pick: Jovanovski -3' (U. Radwanska) -130, risking 1300 to win 1000 (wednesday) :sadwave:
NOTE: from spectator POV, best match of the year, incredible play from both through first two sets.
POST-analysis: what an incredible match. The best sporting event of the year - wee hours of the morning, second round of third rate tournament. Astonishing.
Pick: Govortsova -119 (Kudryavtseva), risking 1190 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Oudin-Pavlyuchenkova 20 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: North Carolina-Florida State 146 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (19-18 1h 10m) :0074
Pick: LIVE: North Carolina-Florida State 149 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (21-26 1h 8m) :0074
Pick: Benesova -2 (Dulko) +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :sadwave:
Pick: Groth -660 (Doi), risking 1320 to win 200 :0074
(ledger: -57,377)
(ledger: -58,077)
Pick: Jovanovski -230 (U. Radwanska), risking 2300 to win 1000 (wednesday) :0074
Pick: Jovanovski -3' (U. Radwanska) -130, risking 1300 to win 1000 (wednesday) :sadwave:
NOTE: from spectator POV, best match of the year, incredible play from both through first two sets.
POST-analysis: what an incredible match. The best sporting event of the year - wee hours of the morning, second round of third rate tournament. Astonishing.
Pick: Govortsova -119 (Kudryavtseva), risking 1190 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Oudin-Pavlyuchenkova 20 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: North Carolina-Florida State 146 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (19-18 1h 10m) :0074
Pick: LIVE: North Carolina-Florida State 149 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (21-26 1h 8m) :0074
Pick: Benesova -2 (Dulko) +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :sadwave:
Pick: Groth -660 (Doi), risking 1320 to win 200 :0074
(ledger: -57,377)
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(all Thursday 3/3/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -57,377)
Pick: Bartoli -2100 (Ivanova), risking 2100 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Safarova-Safina 21 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: Dulko -290 (Wozniak), risking 2900 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Sevastova-Cornet 21 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Denver-Utah 211' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (30-23 2q start) :0074
(ledger: -56,527)
(ledger: -57,377)
Pick: Bartoli -2100 (Ivanova), risking 2100 to win 100 :0074
Pick: Safarova-Safina 21 under -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: Dulko -290 (Wozniak), risking 2900 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Sevastova-Cornet 21 under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Denver-Utah 211' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (30-23 2q start) :0074
(ledger: -56,527)
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(all Friday 3/4/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -56,527)
Pick: Groth -3 (Morita) +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Article: remember groth screaming at her coach? it wasn't her coach, it was her husband standing in for coach. and she didn't say what i thought: "i look like a fucking tourist out there," but she did say tourist.
When her husband of 14 months defended himself and explained the ball was heavy in the cool, damp conditions, she snapped.
"Don't talk to me like a (expletive) tourist," she barked.
http://au.eurosport.com/tennis/groths-in-on-court-row_sto2609058/story.shtml
(ledger: -57,527)
Pick: 2parlay:
Bogomolov -240 (Jones) w
Dulko -230 (Pervak) w
risking 2000 to win 2113 :0074
Pick: Bradley-Wichita State 133 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074
why: these conf champs can be gold mines for unders, as long as you dont get on the trend too late.
Pick: Schuettler -120 (Matosevic), risking 2400 to win 2000 :0074
Pick: Jankovic -315 (Sevastova), risking 3150 to win 1000 :0074
why: Janko was unsettling end of last match, but think she wins this - she can win the tournament, so i think full steam ahead. suspect she either rolls and it goes way under, or it's dragged out the whole way through.
Pick: LIVE: Chicago-Orlando 177 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (43-29 2q 2m) :0074
Pick: LIVE: Miami-San Antonio 197 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (11-25 1q 3m) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Miami-San Antonio 195 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (12-36 2q start) :sadwave:
POST-analysis: love to catch a huge hanger like mia w 12 in 1q, that usually ends up in an under. but mia somehow got a 38pt 2q.
(ledger: -52,814)
(ledger: -56,527)
Pick: Groth -3 (Morita) +100, risking 1000 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Article: remember groth screaming at her coach? it wasn't her coach, it was her husband standing in for coach. and she didn't say what i thought: "i look like a fucking tourist out there," but she did say tourist.
When her husband of 14 months defended himself and explained the ball was heavy in the cool, damp conditions, she snapped.
"Don't talk to me like a (expletive) tourist," she barked.
http://au.eurosport.com/tennis/groths-in-on-court-row_sto2609058/story.shtml
(ledger: -57,527)
Pick: 2parlay:
Bogomolov -240 (Jones) w
Dulko -230 (Pervak) w
risking 2000 to win 2113 :0074
Pick: Bradley-Wichita State 133 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074
why: these conf champs can be gold mines for unders, as long as you dont get on the trend too late.
Pick: Schuettler -120 (Matosevic), risking 2400 to win 2000 :0074
Pick: Jankovic -315 (Sevastova), risking 3150 to win 1000 :0074
why: Janko was unsettling end of last match, but think she wins this - she can win the tournament, so i think full steam ahead. suspect she either rolls and it goes way under, or it's dragged out the whole way through.
Pick: LIVE: Chicago-Orlando 177 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (43-29 2q 2m) :0074
Pick: LIVE: Miami-San Antonio 197 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (11-25 1q 3m) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Miami-San Antonio 195 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (12-36 2q start) :sadwave:
POST-analysis: love to catch a huge hanger like mia w 12 in 1q, that usually ends up in an under. but mia somehow got a 38pt 2q.
(ledger: -52,814)
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(all Saturday 3/5/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -52,814)
Pick: Dokic -145 (Krajcek), risking 2900 to win 2000 :0074
why: Dokic was pretty persuasive over a very good player in jovanoski. Think Krajcek has met her match and will depart after a good run.
Pick: Creighton-Missouri State 128 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074
why: a little skeetchy on this, cashed on 3 unders in this tournament yesterday, and all four games went under. that should mean the worm is about to turn. but until it does, i see no reason to buck the trend. 128 is not high, but these teams aren't great scorers, and the environment is tight.
Pick: Wichita State -400 (Indiana State), risking 4000 to win 1000 :sadwave:
why: simple, think ind state cant score more points than wichita state
POST-analysis: can only laugh at this. had won 7 unders in a row (not posted, most), ditch it to chickenshit this meretricious ml, and get kicked in the nuts. the under of course covered as easily as the last six. even so, wich should have won this by a mile, inds had about 2 points after ten minutes.
Pick: Dulko-Pavlyuchenkova 21 under +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :0074
Pick: Schuettler -205 (Kuznetsov), risking 2050 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Texas -3' (Baylor) -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Duke-North Carolina 159' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (23-29 1h 7:02) :0074
(ledger: -48,764)
(ledger: -52,814)
Pick: Dokic -145 (Krajcek), risking 2900 to win 2000 :0074
why: Dokic was pretty persuasive over a very good player in jovanoski. Think Krajcek has met her match and will depart after a good run.
Pick: Creighton-Missouri State 128 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074
why: a little skeetchy on this, cashed on 3 unders in this tournament yesterday, and all four games went under. that should mean the worm is about to turn. but until it does, i see no reason to buck the trend. 128 is not high, but these teams aren't great scorers, and the environment is tight.
Pick: Wichita State -400 (Indiana State), risking 4000 to win 1000 :sadwave:
why: simple, think ind state cant score more points than wichita state
POST-analysis: can only laugh at this. had won 7 unders in a row (not posted, most), ditch it to chickenshit this meretricious ml, and get kicked in the nuts. the under of course covered as easily as the last six. even so, wich should have won this by a mile, inds had about 2 points after ten minutes.
Pick: Dulko-Pavlyuchenkova 21 under +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :0074
Pick: Schuettler -205 (Kuznetsov), risking 2050 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Texas -3' (Baylor) -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Duke-North Carolina 159' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (23-29 1h 7:02) :0074
(ledger: -48,764)
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nailed this one as well..unfortunately took Groth too..down a set early. Safarova playing great.
yeah fell asleep. groth is sketchy enough just never feel too confident with her. she's good, and fairly strong minded, but not great, and will lose if the other player is regular enough. just havent seen safarova much, am surprised to see dokic as dog in final. i'll definitely take some of that.
i dont know...hard to say. i havent seen hercog play at all. and pavy, who i like, only once. pavly simply has to have upped her play from the daniilidou match, i have to assume. i dont really like any of these choices, frankly. i actually like dokic as dog better than anything else. i do think janko will probably win, but at -700. no way i'm touching that, and i have no trouble with big favs. i really cant say without having seen hercog play. janko probably wins, but how do you squeeze money out of -700, and i dont like -5' either. why is this going to be a blowout? i dont see why it would. all you need is janko to miss a few lines and she might well lose outright. dulko pavy is just hard to call. i dont like playing pavy as favorite after what i saw, and as well as dulko has played. i might even lean a little dulko on this, as this is closer to her home turf.
id rather take schuettler as fav over kuznetsov in dallas challenger than these women this evening. today is a day better spent picking unders on college hoops games than anything.
definitely taking Dokic..she was starting to regain form last year and won't crack under the moment..Safarova saved a ton of breaks vs Groth..won't be so lucky vs Dokic
that's helpful info as i didnt see it.
yes, i'm on dokic. the line does give me pause, it seems a little odd. it seems like if they actually though saf was going to win, it would still be weighted toward dokic, making it pretty much a pick em rather than safar a clear fav. well, i'm sure there's something i'm missing. but i'm on dokic.
(all Sunday 3/6/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -48,764)
Pick: Dokic +167 (Safarova), risking 2000 to win 3340 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Chicago-Miami 179' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (12-15 1q 2:52) :0074
Pick: LIVE: Chicago-Miami 181 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (18-22 2q start) :0074
Pick: Indiana-Missouri State 126 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074
POST-analysis: am really proud of this bet, overcame a difficulty ive had, of jumping off trends too early, and missing several profits on the same basic insight. usually i get tweaked after 2-3 games go the way i think, and then sit by and watch the same thing happen again. it's difficult not to overthink this stuff. have to find the right level between underthinking -- following what the analysts and public are saying -- and overthinking, like the linesmakers are trying to trick you. it's a window. a little higher than the dumb public, but a little lower than a true intellectual problem. kind of a mid-high range you need to be in to win... it turned out that every game in the missouri valley conference champs went under, all seven. they really weren't even close.
Pick: Wisconsin-Ohio State 127' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:
HALFTIME: really stupid bet. i knew osu could hit threes. these are not some mvc feebs, 79 pts 1h kills this unless we get a freak 50 pt half. oh no wait. still lose with 50. i thought wis would freeze it up and play d, but they played no d, osu nailed 3s. wis was dragging with a late 15, but then hit 3s and got near 30. buckets of fail on this pick.
NOTE: going to do janko live. dont like either side going in, given the price. will hit the live hard if i see something. best general strategy for live women is take a proven winner (clijsters) down a break.
Pick: LIVE: Lakers-San Antonio 184' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (72-42 3q 5m) :0074
Pick: Florida State-North Carolina State 138' under -105, risking 2100 to win 2000 :0074
(ledger: -39,624)
Pick: LIVE: New York-Atlanta 167' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (52-53 3q 3m) :sadwave:
POST-analysis: ugh. this wins easy 70% of the time. they hit a bunch of threes and screwed it, and it still came within 45 seconds of winning.
Pick: San Francisco-Gonzaga 137 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: bad beat. 138.
(ledger: -42,824)
(ledger: -48,764)
Pick: Dokic +167 (Safarova), risking 2000 to win 3340 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Chicago-Miami 179' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (12-15 1q 2:52) :0074
Pick: LIVE: Chicago-Miami 181 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (18-22 2q start) :0074
Pick: Indiana-Missouri State 126 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074
POST-analysis: am really proud of this bet, overcame a difficulty ive had, of jumping off trends too early, and missing several profits on the same basic insight. usually i get tweaked after 2-3 games go the way i think, and then sit by and watch the same thing happen again. it's difficult not to overthink this stuff. have to find the right level between underthinking -- following what the analysts and public are saying -- and overthinking, like the linesmakers are trying to trick you. it's a window. a little higher than the dumb public, but a little lower than a true intellectual problem. kind of a mid-high range you need to be in to win... it turned out that every game in the missouri valley conference champs went under, all seven. they really weren't even close.
Pick: Wisconsin-Ohio State 127' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:
HALFTIME: really stupid bet. i knew osu could hit threes. these are not some mvc feebs, 79 pts 1h kills this unless we get a freak 50 pt half. oh no wait. still lose with 50. i thought wis would freeze it up and play d, but they played no d, osu nailed 3s. wis was dragging with a late 15, but then hit 3s and got near 30. buckets of fail on this pick.
NOTE: going to do janko live. dont like either side going in, given the price. will hit the live hard if i see something. best general strategy for live women is take a proven winner (clijsters) down a break.
Pick: LIVE: Lakers-San Antonio 184' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (72-42 3q 5m) :0074
Pick: Florida State-North Carolina State 138' under -105, risking 2100 to win 2000 :0074
(ledger: -39,624)
Pick: LIVE: New York-Atlanta 167' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (52-53 3q 3m) :sadwave:
POST-analysis: ugh. this wins easy 70% of the time. they hit a bunch of threes and screwed it, and it still came within 45 seconds of winning.
Pick: San Francisco-Gonzaga 137 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:
POST-analysis: bad beat. 138.
(ledger: -42,824)
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Great price, I only got +155. Safarova saved 13 of 15 breakers yesterday. Living on the edge..
yeah - it was. for some reason they yanked the video. but i watched the score. it is amazing how even if you're just watching the score you can FEEL what's going on. man, she really showed some serious heart. great win.
was falling asleep so i took it middle of night or would have missed it. normally i like to wait till last minute. price on dokic improved for about 12 hours, not by a lot, but i think i got it about the high point, at least 167 was high as i saw. some of these matches will have 20c moves in the last 15 minutes before match starts, it's hard to say. tennis is one of those things where you can damn well bet someone has more inside info than those who aren't near the scene, since there's so little reporting on it. but i dont think that really matters, for the most part. the key is the person wants to play and isn't injured.
(all Monday 3/7/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -42,824)
PREVIEW OF COMING WEEK: Indian Wells the next two weeks for tennis, both men and women. Also, this week has conference championships, which offer repeated excellent chances to cash unders, as we've seen this weekend.
Pick: Keothvang -525 (Puig), risking 2100 to win 400 :sadwave:
POSt-analysis: wtf? not even in the game in this one. usually stay away from qualifiers because they are very dangerous, as i got burned here. not just this, but several others i considered lost too, glad i stayed off 'em. hopefully pervak wont let us down.
Pick: Pervak -290 (Chan), risking 2900 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Razzano -350 (Cetkovska), risking 1725 to win 500 :sadwave:
Pick: VCU-Old Dominion 124' under -108, risking 2160 to win 2000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Gonzaga-St. Mary's 153' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (26-24 1h 7:30) :0074
(ledger: -45,809)
(ledger: -42,824)
PREVIEW OF COMING WEEK: Indian Wells the next two weeks for tennis, both men and women. Also, this week has conference championships, which offer repeated excellent chances to cash unders, as we've seen this weekend.
Pick: Keothvang -525 (Puig), risking 2100 to win 400 :sadwave:
POSt-analysis: wtf? not even in the game in this one. usually stay away from qualifiers because they are very dangerous, as i got burned here. not just this, but several others i considered lost too, glad i stayed off 'em. hopefully pervak wont let us down.
Pick: Pervak -290 (Chan), risking 2900 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: Razzano -350 (Cetkovska), risking 1725 to win 500 :sadwave:
Pick: VCU-Old Dominion 124' under -108, risking 2160 to win 2000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Gonzaga-St. Mary's 153' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (26-24 1h 7:30) :0074
(ledger: -45,809)
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man, i am ready to bust something after that gonzaga total, absolutely ridiculous
(all Tuesday 3/8/11 picks in this post)
(ledger: -45,809)
Pick: DePaul-Connecticut 137 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: DePaul-Connecticut 132' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (4-7 1h 15m) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Seton Hall-Rutgers 118' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-6 1h 15m) :sadwave:
Pick: Reister -275 (Gregorc), risking 2750 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock-North Texas 139' under -102, risking 1020 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Butler-Wisconsin-Milwaukee 129 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (25-8 1h 7:50) :0074
Pick: Providence-Marquette 155 under -107, risking 1070 to win 1000 :0074
(ledger: -50,059)
(ledger: -45,809)
Pick: DePaul-Connecticut 137 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: DePaul-Connecticut 132' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (4-7 1h 15m) :sadwave:
Pick: LIVE: Seton Hall-Rutgers 118' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (0-6 1h 15m) :sadwave:
Pick: Reister -275 (Gregorc), risking 2750 to win 1000 :sadwave:
Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock-North Texas 139' under -102, risking 1020 to win 1000 :0074
Pick: LIVE: Butler-Wisconsin-Milwaukee 129 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (25-8 1h 7:50) :0074
Pick: Providence-Marquette 155 under -107, risking 1070 to win 1000 :0074
(ledger: -50,059)
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