New Picks Thread (all sports)

[GoldenTaint]

(all Thursday 2/17/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -29,190)

Pick: Stosur -485 (Schnyder), risking 3880 to win 800 :0074

Pick: Cilic -290 (Petzschner), risking 2900 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Schiavone +105 (Kuznetsova), risking 3000 to win 3150 :sadwave:

PRE-analysis: i'll take the mentally stronger schiavone. kuz has some power, but i think she's not quite in tune enough to take this match

POST-analysis: kuz tried everything to give this away, she has a real soft spot in her head, but schia was a little too weak on serve

Pick: Ljubicic -168 (Tursunov), risking 1680 to win 1000 :sadwave:

why: if he waxed Golubev, he can whip Tursunov too. turs, for his part, barely ousted some other russian clown, this is a big step up, i think he falls

Pick: Ljubicic-Tursunov 23 under +103, risking 2000 to win 2060 :0074

Pick: 8parlay:
Soderling -650 (Mahut) w
Kamke +241 (Llodra) l
Ljubicic -168 (Tursunov) l
Berdych -485 (Roger-Vasselin) w
Almagro -425 (L. Mayer) w
del Potro -390 (Dodig) w
Wozniacki -950 (Morita) w
Kanepi -165 (Jankovic) l
risking 1000 to win 19,858 :sadwave:

Pick: Berdych -410 (Roger-Vasselin), risking 2200 to win 500 :0074

Pick: Kamke +241 (Llodra), risking 3000 to win 7230 :sadwave:

why: taking a shot. not a wild shot, i expect kamke to win. yesterday showed he's in good form, and llodra, while quality, is certainly beatable by someone with kamke's tools. the line does not make sense to me, and since i've had a pretty good read on kamke in the past, i'm going with my impression over the linesmakers

NOTE: line is because llodra is defending champ, and french playing in france. line has gone from 245 to 210 back to 245, then way up right before match to 285.

POST-analysis. ah, &*((& it. good example of my spiel about circumstances next post. didnt take them into account. a bit much for kamke today, he didn't put up too much of a battle. that makes me 0-2 on best bets today, the third is kanepi.

Pick: Querrey -363 (Dabul), risking 3630 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Goerges -580 (Han), risking 2320 to win 400 :sadwave:

ANALYSIS: interesting restart. han serves. if she holds, she wins match. what a time for rain to interrupt. han started slowly yesterday. hope she does today too.

Pick: Kanepi -163 (Jankovic), risking 3260 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: Kanepi -3 (Jankovic) -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :sadwave:

why: jankovic just doesn't have much these days, and kanepi gets stronger and stronger. i think this is one of the better plays of the day

POST-analysis: just one of those terrible all-around days. first goerges does break to save her match, then promptly blows it. kanepi blows out jank in first set, then wastes second, then up 30 and 53 serving for win in last set, and blows it.

Pick: Soderling -650 (Mahut), risking 1950 to win 300 :0074

why: nice, modest, easy-to-win bet. does mahut really have a 1/7 chance of beating sod in this match today? that kangaroo won't fly. alt: why, the very idea is a ma-hoot!

Pick: Soderling -4 (Mahut) -118, risking 1180 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Watson-Rodina 21' under -130, risking 1300 to win 1000 :0074

why: one of these two will surely crack

Pick: Stepanek-Raonic 23' under -106, risking 3180 to win 3000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: just like rest of day, raonic blows about five chances to win second set tiebreak and blows the under.

Pick: Youzhny -140 (Simon), risking 1400 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: del Potro -410 (Dodig), risking 2200 to win 500 :0074

Pick: Tipsarevic +230 (Roddick), risking 1000 to win 2300 :sadwave:

Pick: Tipsarevic +3' (Roddick) -126, risking 1260 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Dallas-Phoenix 205 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (23-20 1q 2:17) :sadwave:

POST-analysis: fitting end to perhaps my single worst day since starting this thread. the picks weren't even that bad, it was just a day when everything close went sour at the very end. i will reconfirm what i said: i will be in profits again, and when i get there, i will never again dip into the red.

(ledger: -46,310)

 

[GoldenTaint]

MINI-ESSAY:

On Value

A lot of times you hear people say there's great value in a number. Or they say, "If X and Y played 10 times, X would win 3-4 of them, so there's good value in that number." Here's the problem with this concept:

- they're not playing a series of events, they're playing one unique event

Your bet pays only if you win this, specific game or match. You may well be right, that the team you're on at "value" odds would win more often than the line suggests, but that doesn't mean anything unless the team you back wins this particular contest.

I heard something about the Japanese tea ceremony, and I was struck by how it relates very directly to wagering, and to the discussion of value.

The Japanese tea ceremony celebrates the unique, non-recurring nature of a particular moment in time, a time when friends meet to consume fluke-ridden* sushi and drink green or non-green tea. To repeat, the moment is precious not just because it's friends getting together, but because the unique circumstances of the meeting will never occur again. Like the saying you can never step in the same river twice.

So as the river, and the meeting of friends for tea, is the sporting event. It pays the bettor to focus on what is specific to and unique about this particular contest, "the game this day," rather than what is general about it, what fits a pattern. If there is nothing that seems to be unique, then the number is probably right. This is why you can't win simply by following trend sheets - they can only take into account what HAS happened, and not what is likely to happen today, which involves specific, unique circumstances the computer simply can't know. But that's where the actual advantage over the book is most likely to lie, in seeing something that is not reflected in the known and widely spread trends and statistics. And again, if it's not there, then the game probably is not worth betting on, because the KNOWN, quantifiable statistics are already modeled into the number.

Final note is that this searching for what is unique about a particular contest works better for NFL than it does for baseball, I think because there are simply too many baseball games, whereas football games are rare enough that huge masses of data about them do not exist. Each game is like a special magical event, whereas a baseball game is like the tick of a clock. There'll be another one along in another second. In short, baseball seems better suited to the "value" or technical approach than football, since there's so much more data to work with, while football seems more susceptible to the search for unique emotional or other circumstances of the game this day.

_____________
* I saw a horrible tv show on parasites tonight. A guy went to a sushi place in California and tried some tiny live crabs. This got him infected with some flukes the crabs carry, and the flukes got into his lungs and nearly killed him. The doctors drained liters of chocolate-milk-looking fluids before they figured out what was going on. I'm having nightmares and I'm not even asleep!

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Friday 2/18/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -46,310)

PREVIEW: after a 48-hour very-little-sleep round-the-clock tennis-betting binge, had worst performance ever. but, don't feel particularly bad about it. very easily could have won the schia and the raonic under. same with the goddam kanepi match, the wost of all. these were 3/4 big picks, and they all swerved sour at the very last minute. but bad beats are losses any way you cut it. so i'll do better today.

Pick: Wozniacki -355 (Peer), risking 3550 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Raonic-Kendrick 23 under -105, risking 2100 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: Youzhny +173 (Tsonga), risking 1000 to win 1730 :0074

Pick: Han +245 (Navarro), risking 1000 to win 2450 :sadwave:

Pick: Han +4' (Navarro) -105, risking 1050 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: LIVE: Connecticut-Louisville 123 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (10-17 1h 7m) :sadwave:

(ledger: -49,930)

 

[kickserv]

I know the feeling....I have been there many times. You'll bounce back....ya always do:0008

 

[GoldenTaint]

I know the feeling....I have been there many times. You'll bounce back....ya always do:0008

Thanks, kick!

Boy, that Kanepi match made me red. I truly could not believe she could not finish off Janko up 5-3.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Saturday 2/19/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -49,930)

Pick: Wozniacki -337 (Jankovic), risking 3370 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Youzhny -131 (Cilic), risking 2620 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: Youzhny-Cilic 23 under +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 :sadwave:

Pick: Soderling -434 (Tursunov), risking 3472 to win 800 :0074

Pick: Wawrinka -185 (Monaco), risking 1850 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Wawrinka -2' (Monaco) -117, risking 1170 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: del Potro -128 (Roddick), risking 2560 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: del Potro-Roddick 23' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074

(ledger: -50,310)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 2/20/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -50,310)

Pick: Soderling -330 (Cilic), risking 3300 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Wozniacki -240 (Kuznetsova), risking 2400 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: LIVE: Wozniacki -1160 (Kuznetsova), risking 2320 to win 200 (61) :0074

Pick: LIVE: All-Star Game 268' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (10-21 1q 5:31) :sadwave:

(ledger: -50,310)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Monday 2/21/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -50,310)

Pick: Seppi-Petzschner 23 under -130, risking 1300 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Gulbis -185 (Berrer), risking 1850 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Nieminen -150 (F. Mayer), risking 1500 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Safarova +5 (A. Radwanska) -121, risking 1210 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Querrey -400 (Brown), risking 2800 to win 700 :0074

Pick: Serra +142 (Harrison), risking 1000 to win 1420 :0074

Pick: Schuettler-Mello 23 under 129, risking 1290 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Schuettler +100 (Mello), risking 2000 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: Becker -113 (Blake), risking 1130 to win 1000 :sadwave:

(ledger: -53,410)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Tuesday 2/22/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -53,410)

Pick: Kanepi -1' (Peng) -125, risking 2500 to win 2000 CANCELED

Pick: Berlocq -365 (Munoz-De la Nava), risking 3650 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Tennessee-Vanderbilt 142 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 :0074

(ledger: -50,410)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Wednesday 2/23/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -50,410)

Pick: Gulbis -190 (Stakhovsky), risking 1900 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Kohlschreiber -300 (Petzschner), risking 3000 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Simon -840 (Rosol), risking 2520 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Goerges -167 (Garrigues), risking 1670 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Wawrinka -325 (Fognini), risking 3250 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Nishikori -1' (Blake) -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Kavcic +165 (Tipsarevic), risking 1000 to win 1650 :sadwave:

Pick: Ferrer -6' (S. Gonzalez) -140, risking 1400 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Gojnea +4' (Suaraez Navarro) -112, risking 1120 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Clippers-New Orleans 190 under -103, risking 2060 to win 2000 :0074

(ledger: -54,450)

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Thursday 2/24/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -54,450)

Pick: Simon -175 (Gasquet), risking 1750 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: 2parlay:
Fish -475 (Mello) w
Jankovic -235 (Zakopalova) w
risking 2000 to win 1451 :0074

Pick: Mannarino -2 (Falla) -135, risking 1350 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Jankovic -240 (Zakopalova), risking 2400 to win 1000 :0074

why: Jankovic has gotten hot lately; i think she'll make it through here, next round will be the supreme test

Pick: Almagro -270 (Giraldo), risking 2700 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Wozniacki -510 (Bartoli), risking 2550 to win 500 friday

Pick: LIVE: Almagro -125 (Giraldo), risking 1250 to win 1000 (45) :0074

Pick: LIVE: Miami -115 (Chicago), risking 1150 to win 1000 (84-83 4q 2:58) :sadwave:

Pick: Dolgopolov -125 (Wawrinka), risking 1250 to win 1000 :0074

why: been on wawr many times lately, and it is dangerous to go against him here, but i think he will make too many errors to beat dolg based on what ive seen the first two rounds of this tournament

POST-analysis: very satisfying win. exactly what i thought would happen. that clay gives wawr just enough problems because it limits his power and plays to the superior quickness and flexibility of dolg

Pick: LIVE: Boston-Denver 201' under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (11-11 1q 5m) :0074

why: we'll see what happens, but this is one of the strongest under reads ive had in some time. i dont think denver can score enough to get this over, and since i missed the tip, the 201' will have to do midway 1q. of course, this is the game after the big trade, and my guess is the line has not, cannot, adjust fast enough to the loss of offense. i expect a choppy game, with boston winning

Pick: LIVE: Boston-Denver 188 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 (26-23 2q 8:23) :0074

POST-analysis: easiest unders all year. and you can bet there will be more unders on den if you follow nba.

Pick: Ferrer-Monaco 21' under -118, risking 1180 to win 1000 :sadwave:

(ledger: -51,394)

 

[HoopsGuru]

how big is your bankroll if you're down 50+ thousand and still firing away bets greater than a grand?

 

[GoldenTaint]

how big is your bankroll if you're down 50+ thousand and still firing away bets greater than a grand?

Let's put it this way: if I go down 100k, I won't be posting anymore. That's not likely to happen. The most I've been down is 73k, I just tighten up (selections, not size of bet) and it comes back pretty quickly. A few weeks ago I was up 30k and I'll be back there soon enough.

 

[kickserv]

Yep, Mr. Taint goes way up and way down....he's got balls of steel:scared

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Friday 2/25/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -51,394)

Pick: Zvonareva -210 (Jankovic), risking 2100 to win 1000 :0074

why: janko has been playing great again lately, but i think zvonareva is just a little too good.

POST-analysis: thought i was going to lose this, but zvona pulled through, very impressive. she has her head together now. janko continued hitting some great shots, looks bankable into future.

Pick: Nishikori -3 (Sweeting) -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

why: more anti-Sweeting than pro-Nishikori

Pick: Larsson-Santonja 21' under -125, risking 1250 to win 1000 :0074

why: feeling the issue will be decided in set one and set two will be mop up

Pick: Almagro -300 (Bellucci), risking 3000 to win 1000 :0074

why: just can't trust bellucci in the clutch, and almagro is on a 12-match streak. if almagro loses, it will be in the final. is my guess.

Pick: 2parlay:
Del Potro -550 (Anderson) w
Fish -525 (Falla) w
risking 2000 to win 815 :0074

why: these are the kinds of numbers that make a minefield. there just isnt any reason any of these three should lose, but if one does, the profits are gone. the money to be made tonight is probably on the dog dolgo +200 against ferrer. seems to me a pick 'em at worst, and actually i would give an edge to dolgy

Pick: Dolgopolov +3' (Ferrer) -120, risking 3600 to win 3000 :sadwave:

Pick: Dolgopolov +210 (Ferrer), risking 2000 to win 4200 :sadwave:

why: this line is flat wrong. this match is a tossup with a slight lean to dolgopolov.

POST-analysis: credit to ferrer and linesmakers. it sure looked like dolg had it, but he tightened up and blew it.

Pick: LIVE: Denver-Portland 191 under -110, risking 2200 to win 2000 (35-42 2q 3:09) :sadwave:

Pick: Denver-Portland 203 under -103, risking 3090 to win 3000 :sadwave:

why: same reasoning as yesterday, think number drops from now till gametime. how are a motley crew of chuckleclucks going to get over 200+ points. i will believe when i see it, and probably not then.

POST-analysis: great day goes south in a hurry. dolg won first set, and den game looked like easy under, both end up losing big.

(ledger: -57,465)

 

[GoldenTaint]

Yep, Mr. Taint goes way up and way down....he's got balls of steel:scared

Nah, no balls. Balls is betting five figures on credit.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Saturday 2/26/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -57,465)

Pick: LIVE: Djokovic -156 (Federer), risking 1560 to win 1000 (32) :0074

Pick: Tipsarevic -215 (Nishikori), risking 2150 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: SECOND HALF: Mississippi State-Tennessee 74 under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Santonja +4 (Dulko) +105, risking 1000 to win 1050 PUSH

Pick: LIVE: del Potro -665 (Fish), risking 1950 to win 300 (30) :0074

NOTE: should be two great matches. no way can bet against del Po but at -230 over very hot Fish, best to wait and see. 1s is blowout for del Po.

NOTE: should be a great match between Almagro and Ferrer. Learned again last night that Ferrer is the male Clijsters; simply can't go against him just cause you like someone else, need an extremely strong specific reason to think he will lose. Don't have that reason tonight. Almagro is on 13-match winning streak. He will not fade/fold like Dolg did last night, but Ferrer hits incredible shots. Don't like either side of this going in, so will do it live if right conditions come up

Pick: Duke-Virginia Tech 142 under -105, risking 2100 to win 2000 :0074

(ledger: -52,165)

 

[CapMan]

take the over in Ferrer..that baby is going 3 sets..

 

[GoldenTaint]

take the over in Ferrer..that baby is going 3 sets..

now tb 1s. i always seem to choose wrong on ferrer so staying off completely

 

[GoldenTaint]

take the over in Ferrer..that baby is going 3 sets..

good call.

that's exactly why i stayed off what i wanted, almagro +3, sure enough he gets tipped by one game after all that. ferrer is just impressive.