New Picks Thread (all sports)

[GoldenTaint]

(all Sunday 2/27/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -52,165)

Pick: Purdue-Michigan State 133 under -103, risking 2060 to win 2000 :0074

Pick: del Potro -450 (Tipsarevic), risking 2750 to win 600 :0074

why: the Po aint losing this; line is only going to get higher

PRE-analysis: im wrong about the line move, it has actually dropped. hope i'm right about the outcome.

(ledger: -49,565)

 

[CapMan]

good call.

that's exactly why i stayed off what i wanted, almagro +3, sure enough he gets tipped by one game after all that. ferrer is just impressive.

That's the funny thing about Ferrer..what exactly does he do well? He doesn't have a great server, or forehand, or backhand or anything really..he just tracks down shots and forces you into errors and breaks your will. He's like a more talented version of Michael Chang. You would think guys would have found dings in his armor by now, but there are no holes in his game, nor any real strengths other than being relentless.

 

[GoldenTaint]

That's the funny thing about Ferrer..what exactly does he do well? He doesn't have a great server, or forehand, or backhand or anything really..he just tracks down shots and forces you into errors and breaks your will. He's like a more talented version of Michael Chang. You would think guys would have found dings in his armor by now, but there are no holes in his game, nor any real strengths other than being relentless.

yep. he just doesn't hit the ball out. he had one absolutely astonishing shot against dolg, my jaw literally dropped.

 

[kellyindallas]

Good luck, GT. I added Del Portro to my parlay in your honor.opcorn2

 

[kickserv]

Del Potro gets it done

 

[GoldenTaint]

Good luck, GT. I added Del Portro to my parlay in your honor.opcorn2

He was keeled over much of the match. It was quite odd; the live line was as low as -230 on a guy who was -400 going in and up a set and a break. Never seen that before. Was tempted to buy out, but sure enough Tips cracked under pressure, he's a head case like so many of them.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Monday 2/28/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -49,565)

Pick: U. Radwanska -280 (Namigata), risking 2800 to win 1000 :0074

POST-analysis: win, but the games side would have won too at much better risk/return.

Pick: Brianti -225 (Leertcheewakarn), risking 2250 to win 1000 :sadwave:

POST-analysis: indefensible. brianti is a lousy player. leert isn't much better but probably on the way up, at least a little

Pick: Arn-Zahlavova 20' under -110, risking 1100 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Rezai -2 (Kudryavtseva) -128, risking 1280 to win 1000 :sadwave:

Pick: Villanova-Notre Dame 140' under -105, risking 2100 to win 2000 :sadwave:

Pick: TEXAS -425 (Kansas State), risking 3400 to win 800 :sadwave:

(ledger: -56,595)

 

[CapMan]

playing Diyas and Dokic..think 1 will win, possibly both.

 

[GoldenTaint]

playing Diyas and Dokic..think 1 will win, possibly both.

definitely attractive dogs at the prices.

 

[CapMan]

(all Monday 2/28/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -49,565)

Pick: U. Radwanska -280 (Namigata), risking 2800 to win 1000

You do know this is the crappy Radwanska sister right? I can't lay -300 with her..going all dogs opening round in this tournament.

 

[GoldenTaint]

You do know this is the crappy Radwanska sister right? I can't lay -300 with her..going all dogs opening round in this tournament.

yeah, but they always overrate the local continentals in these tournaments. urad is at least a semi-serious player, i never heard of namigata.

i like aradwanska, she's like perfectly predictable. she has one level of play, which is pretty high, but she has no higher gear. most of these players you have to calcuate their head and their skills and their recent form. some of them, though, are more like machines that churn out the same basic product no matter where they are, or the weight of the match. they're like good ol mike tomczak that qb for pittsburgh long ago. perfect betting qb, never really fucked things up or did anything remarkable, just steadily slightly above average.

 

[GoldenTaint]

playing Diyas and Dokic..think 1 will win, possibly both.

here's the thing...a lot of these early-round dog cashes are if the fav's heart's not really in it. now, if i'm schiavone, i know that i could make just as much money in the circus as jojo, the italian dog-faced boy. so i dont get on a plane to freakin' malaysia unless i REALLY want to play. i dont see her getting off the plane to retire, pull out, quit halfway through a set. that being the case, she probably drags it out, because, after all, she is much mentally tougher than the rest of these two-thump chumps. so i would tend to lean to the games with dokic, if i were dokically inclined, which i very mildly am.

it's that kind of high-level reasoning that has me 50k in the hole. :142smilie

 

[CapMan]

good call on U.Rad..I might have to switch to favorites..Brianti and Schiavone it is...these dogs aren't barking..

 

[CapMan]

luckily I stuck with Dokic!! Nice little payday...nothing like starting your day 1-2 and being up.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ugh, brianti is a shit player, and i knew that too. indefensible bet.

 

[CapMan]

I cashed on that dog..Kerber killed me today but Arn appears to be in good shape. When did she become such a beast throwing up bagels at people? She's having quite a 2011 thus far.

 

[GoldenTaint]

(all Tuesday 3/1/11 picks in this post)

(ledger: -56,595)

Pick: Groth -1380 (Sun), risking 2760 to win 200 :0074

Pick: 2parlay:
A. Kleybanova -1250 (Lu) w
Goerges -150 (Pervak)
risking 1082 to win 866 :sadwave:

Pick: Georges -150 (Pervak), risking 3000 to win 2000 :sadwave:

why: guessing Goerges has her problems sorted out; the line is a little low due to recent results. Pervak could beat Georges, but G is definitely the better player, and particularly on hard surface i think G can fight through any obstacles pervak poses

POST-analysis: they didnt show it so not sure why goerges lost but key is she's not where she was last year, time to get off her til she recovers form. and time to be more selective in my picks till start winning consistently.

Pick: King-Oudin 21 under -127, risking 1270 to win 1000 :0074

Pick: Pavyluchenkova -590 (Daniilidou), risking 2360 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Halep-Cornet 20' under -120, risking 1200 to win 1000 :0074

(ledger: -58,077)

 

[GoldenTaint]

I cashed on that dog..Kerber killed me today but Arn appears to be in good shape. When did she become such a beast throwing up bagels at people? She's having quite a 2011 thus far.

i was wary of kerber, she and hercog are hard to predict. arn, who knows. she's played a few decent matches recently.

kind of looking for goerges now. lost big on her recently, want to see what her deal is. back and forth from clay to hard.

 

[CapMan]

I don't like the Goerges line..smells like a sucker bet..like Rezai earlier..she has completely come undone after mild success last year.

 

[GoldenTaint]

I don't like the Goerges line..smells like a sucker bet..like Rezai earlier..she has completely come undone after mild success last year.

you might be right. two main things to me are pervak, who i dont think is that good, and surface. if goerges loses, i'm definitely off her until she's back on track.