NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !
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- Start date
DECEMBER'S NFL BEST BETS !
12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
Monday’s 6-pack:
Six of the better bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Dec 23: Armed Forces Bowl- James Madison vs Air Force
— Dec 23: Hawai’i Bowl- Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State
— Dec 26: Guaranteed Rate Bowl- Kansas vs UNLV
— Dec 30: Orange Bowl- Georgia vs Florida State
— Jan 1: Rose Bowl- Michigan vs Alabama
— Jan 1: Sugar Bowl; Washington vs Texas
Quote of the Day
“I tried to impress upon them what it was to be a professional and how tough this game is to play. And I told them almost every day how good there were.”
Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland
Monday’s quiz
Who did UNLV play the last time they were in a bowl game (2013)?
Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Dolphins in 2005-06.
Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.
********************************************
— 49ers’ first two drives: 6 plays, minus-6 yards, two punts.
— 49ers’ next six drives: 47 plays, 450 yards, 42 points.
— WR Samuel had 7 touches for 138 yards, three TD’s.
— San Francisco averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran ball 18 times for only 46 yards.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.
Colts 31, Titans 28 OT
— Titans kicked FG in OT, then Colts drive 75 yards for game-winning TD.
— Tennessee led 17-7 with 8:00 left in first half.
— Colts blocked punt for TD to take 22-17 lead with 0:19 left in 3rd quarter.
— Titans blocked PAT, ran it back for two points to cut lead to 22-19.
— Colts won last four games, are tied for last AFC playoff slot.
— QB Minshew is 5-3 as a starter this season.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— Indianapolis team total: over 9-2-1
Chargers 6, Patriots 0
— Chargers snap a 7-game losing streak vs New England.
— LA gained only 241 yards, kicked two 38-yard field goals.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Patriots lost last three games, 10-6/10-7/6-0.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England lost eight of their last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— AFC East teams are 10-18 ATS outside the division.
Lions 33, Saints 28
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Two of Lions’ four TD drives were short; 17, 26 yards.
— Rookie TE Laporta caught nine passes for 140 yards and a TD.
— Lions are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Detroit led 21-0 with 8:15 left in first quarter.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of last three games.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 113 yards, 7 points.
— Saints in second half: 38 plays, 254 yards, 21 points.
Falcons 13, Jets 8
— Falcons’ first 4 drives: 16 plays, 23 yards and a safety for the Jets
— Falcons’ only TD drive was 47 yards in second quarter.
— Atlanta was 4-14 on third down, Jets 2-15.
— Atlanta won, but Jets outgained them, 259-194.
— Jets lost their last five games, scoring 9 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 68 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog
Cardinals 24, Steelers 10
— Game had two weather delays; one for 30 minutes, one for 53 minutes.
— Arizona RB Conner ran ball for 105 yards, two TD’s against his old team.
— Cardinals had three TD drives: 99-21-33 yards.
— Arizona was 10-17 on third down, Pittsburgh 4-11.
— QB Pickett hurt his ankle; backup Trubisky played most of game.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10 points.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Nine of last 11 Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
Dolphins 45, Commanders 15
— Dolphisn’ first six drives: 39 plays, 338 yards, 38 points.
— Miami scored on pick-6 to take 17-0 lead late in first quarter,
— WR Hill caught five passes for 145 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins scored 31+ points in 7 of 9 wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— In last three games, Commanders gave up 31-45-45 points.
— Washington lost nine of last 11 games SU (2-5 ATS last seven)
— In those 11 games, Commanders were outscored 175-79 in 1st half.
— Opponents’ team total: over 10-3
Texans 22, Broncos 17
— Broncos were minus-3 in turnovers (+11 in previous four games)
— Wilson threw an INT on three of Denver’s last four drives.
— Denver was 0-11 on third down, Texans were 4-16.
— Broncos are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Texans’ first four drives: 25 plays, 192 yards, 13 points.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3 points.
— This was first game in six weeks that Panthers scored 2+ offensive TD’s.
— Carolina drove 75 yards, scored 8 points with 5:02 left for back-door cover.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-52 in first half.
— 2nd quarter of this game was played in a monsoon.
— Evans caught 75-yard TD pass that put Bucs ahead, 14-10.
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Buccaneers won seven of last eight games vs Carolina.
Rams 36, Browns 19
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— Rookie WR Nacua caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD.
— LA outscored Browns 12-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Flacco was 23-44/254 passing; he is 4th QB to start for Browns TY.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Cleveland scored TD to make score 20-19 in 3rd quarter; they missed PAT.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Packers 27, Chiefs 19
— Chiefs are 2-3 in last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Chiefs’ first four drives: 47 plays, 260 yards, 19 points.
— Chiefs’ last three drives: 15 plays, 65 yards, no points.
— KC is 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay’s first four drives: 36 plays, 255 yards, 21 points.
— Packers held Chiefs to 5.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 34-69 on third down.
— Appalachian State 69, Auburn 64- Tough day for SEC, with Miss State, Auburn getting upset. Tigers were +16 on boards in this game, but shot 3-27 on arc.
— Southern 60, Mississippi State 59- Southern ended game on a 15-2 run.
— Clemson 79, Pitt 70- Tigers are 7-0, with three top 100 wins.
— Congrats to former big league manager Jim Leyland, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame Sunday. Leyland won two AL pennants with Detroit, won the 1997 World Seres with the Marlins- he also led the Pirates to the playoffs three years in a row (1990-92).
Six of the better bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Dec 23: Armed Forces Bowl- James Madison vs Air Force
— Dec 23: Hawai’i Bowl- Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State
— Dec 26: Guaranteed Rate Bowl- Kansas vs UNLV
— Dec 30: Orange Bowl- Georgia vs Florida State
— Jan 1: Rose Bowl- Michigan vs Alabama
— Jan 1: Sugar Bowl; Washington vs Texas
Quote of the Day
“I tried to impress upon them what it was to be a professional and how tough this game is to play. And I told them almost every day how good there were.”
Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland
Monday’s quiz
Who did UNLV play the last time they were in a bowl game (2013)?
Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Dolphins in 2005-06.
Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.
********************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..
49ers 42, Eagles 19— 49ers’ first two drives: 6 plays, minus-6 yards, two punts.
— 49ers’ next six drives: 47 plays, 450 yards, 42 points.
— WR Samuel had 7 touches for 138 yards, three TD’s.
— San Francisco averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran ball 18 times for only 46 yards.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.
Colts 31, Titans 28 OT
— Titans kicked FG in OT, then Colts drive 75 yards for game-winning TD.
— Tennessee led 17-7 with 8:00 left in first half.
— Colts blocked punt for TD to take 22-17 lead with 0:19 left in 3rd quarter.
— Titans blocked PAT, ran it back for two points to cut lead to 22-19.
— Colts won last four games, are tied for last AFC playoff slot.
— QB Minshew is 5-3 as a starter this season.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— Indianapolis team total: over 9-2-1
Chargers 6, Patriots 0
— Chargers snap a 7-game losing streak vs New England.
— LA gained only 241 yards, kicked two 38-yard field goals.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Patriots lost last three games, 10-6/10-7/6-0.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England lost eight of their last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— AFC East teams are 10-18 ATS outside the division.
Lions 33, Saints 28
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Two of Lions’ four TD drives were short; 17, 26 yards.
— Rookie TE Laporta caught nine passes for 140 yards and a TD.
— Lions are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Detroit led 21-0 with 8:15 left in first quarter.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of last three games.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 113 yards, 7 points.
— Saints in second half: 38 plays, 254 yards, 21 points.
Falcons 13, Jets 8
— Falcons’ first 4 drives: 16 plays, 23 yards and a safety for the Jets
— Falcons’ only TD drive was 47 yards in second quarter.
— Atlanta was 4-14 on third down, Jets 2-15.
— Atlanta won, but Jets outgained them, 259-194.
— Jets lost their last five games, scoring 9 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 68 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog
Cardinals 24, Steelers 10
— Game had two weather delays; one for 30 minutes, one for 53 minutes.
— Arizona RB Conner ran ball for 105 yards, two TD’s against his old team.
— Cardinals had three TD drives: 99-21-33 yards.
— Arizona was 10-17 on third down, Pittsburgh 4-11.
— QB Pickett hurt his ankle; backup Trubisky played most of game.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10 points.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Nine of last 11 Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
Dolphins 45, Commanders 15
— Dolphisn’ first six drives: 39 plays, 338 yards, 38 points.
— Miami scored on pick-6 to take 17-0 lead late in first quarter,
— WR Hill caught five passes for 145 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins scored 31+ points in 7 of 9 wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— In last three games, Commanders gave up 31-45-45 points.
— Washington lost nine of last 11 games SU (2-5 ATS last seven)
— In those 11 games, Commanders were outscored 175-79 in 1st half.
— Opponents’ team total: over 10-3
Texans 22, Broncos 17
— Broncos were minus-3 in turnovers (+11 in previous four games)
— Wilson threw an INT on three of Denver’s last four drives.
— Denver was 0-11 on third down, Texans were 4-16.
— Broncos are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Texans’ first four drives: 25 plays, 192 yards, 13 points.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3 points.
— This was first game in six weeks that Panthers scored 2+ offensive TD’s.
— Carolina drove 75 yards, scored 8 points with 5:02 left for back-door cover.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-52 in first half.
— 2nd quarter of this game was played in a monsoon.
— Evans caught 75-yard TD pass that put Bucs ahead, 14-10.
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Buccaneers won seven of last eight games vs Carolina.
Rams 36, Browns 19
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— Rookie WR Nacua caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD.
— LA outscored Browns 12-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Flacco was 23-44/254 passing; he is 4th QB to start for Browns TY.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Cleveland scored TD to make score 20-19 in 3rd quarter; they missed PAT.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Packers 27, Chiefs 19
— Chiefs are 2-3 in last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Chiefs’ first four drives: 47 plays, 260 yards, 19 points.
— Chiefs’ last three drives: 15 plays, 65 yards, no points.
— KC is 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay’s first four drives: 36 plays, 255 yards, 21 points.
— Packers held Chiefs to 5.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 34-69 on third down.
— Appalachian State 69, Auburn 64- Tough day for SEC, with Miss State, Auburn getting upset. Tigers were +16 on boards in this game, but shot 3-27 on arc.
— Southern 60, Mississippi State 59- Southern ended game on a 15-2 run.
— Clemson 79, Pitt 70- Tigers are 7-0, with three top 100 wins.
— Congrats to former big league manager Jim Leyland, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame Sunday. Leyland won two AL pennants with Detroit, won the 1997 World Seres with the Marlins- he also led the Pirates to the playoffs three years in a row (1990-92).
DECEMBER'S NFL BEST BETS !
12/04/2023....................................0 - 2 - 0...............................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
TOTALS.........................................7 - 9 - 0...............................43.75%.......................- 14.50
12/04/2023....................................0 - 2 - 0...............................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
TOTALS.........................................7 - 9 - 0...............................43.75%.......................- 14.50
Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Odds to get the #1 pick in this year’s baseball draft:
18.3%- A’s, Royals, Rockies
14.7%- White Sox
8.3%- Cardinals
6.1%- Angels
4.3%- Mets
3.0%- Pirates
The lottery for the draft is Tuesday at 5:30.
Quote of the Day
“I’m not offended at all by dumb blonde jokes, because I know I’m not dumb, and I know I’m not a blonde.”
Dolly Parton
Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; who was LSU’s coach that year?
Monday’s quiz
UNLV lost 36-14 to North Texas in the 2013 Heart of Texas Bowl, the last time the Rebels were in a bowl game.
Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Miami Dolphins in 2005-06.
*******************************
Backup QB Browning was 32-37/354 passing for his first NFL win.
McPherson kicked a 48-yard FG in overtime for the win.
Chase caught 11 passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Bengals were 8-14 on third down, Jacksonville 6-15.
Jaguars lost QB Lawrence late in game with an ankle injury.
Jaguars scored four touchdowns on their first seven drives.
Jaguars’ last four drives: 27 plays, 111 yards, 3 points.
Under Pederson, Jags are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— There are two Monday night games next week, both at 8:15:
Packers @ Giants, Titans @ Miami
— In their 6-0 loss to the Chargers Sunday, New England’s average starting position on their 10 drives was their own 14-yard line, which is terrible field position.
In all the NFL games since 2000, counting playoff games, this was the worst average starting field position by any team, in any one game.
New England is also the only team since 1938 to give up 10 or fewer points three games in a row, and lose all three games.
— Bears beat Minnesota 12-10 last Monday night; in that game, Justin Fields’ average pass length was 2.7 yards downfield, the shortest by any QB in a game since Tony Romo in 2010.
He threw 12 screen passes; only 19 of his 37 passes were beyond the line of scrimmage.
— In their two post-bye games, Atlanta Falcons haven’t allowed a touchdown on 22 drives; opponents have tried 8 field goals on those 22 drives, but haven’t scored a TD, and Atlanta won both games.
— In their last three games, Denver Broncos are only 8-37 on third down.
— Tennessee Titans lost in overtime Sunday; they’re 4-8, and fired their special teams coach Monday. Titans had a punt blocked for a TD Sunday; their punter also lost a fumble, and hurt his knee trying to recover it- he’s out for the year.
Tennessee also blocked a Colts’ PAT and ran it back for two points, but they lost, and there have to be scapegoats, so the special teams coach was told to take a hike, after six years with the Titans.
— Steelers’ QB Kenny Pickett had ankle surgery Monday, to “accelerate the healing process” on his sprained right ankle, according to Mike Tomlin.
— Word of the Day: Anagram- a word or phrase that is made by switching around the letters of another word or phrase.
For example, “listen” is an anagram for “silent”
“ocean” is an anagram for “canoe”
— Random trend for the upcoming bowl games:
Over the last five years, bowl underdogs who lost their conference championship game have gone 15-9 against the spread in their bowl games.
— Hotel rates for Super Bowl weekend (February 9-12) in Las Vegas:
Aria $1,467/night.
Bellagio $1,600/night.
Cosmopolitan $1,600/night.
Fountainblue $1,567/night.
Venetian $1,199/night.
Yikes.
— Wealthiest owners in pro sports:
$100B- Steve Ballmer, LA Clippers
$67B- Rob Walton, Denver Broncos
$32B- Miriam Adelson, new owner of Dallas Mavericks
$21B- Dan Gilbert, Cleveland Cavaliers
$20B- David Tepper, Carolina Panthers
— In their first 34 years of existence, the Minnesota Timberwolves spent a total of 10 days as the #1-seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. Thats 10 days in 34 years.
This season, Minnesota is 15-4, the #1-seed in the West; they’ve spent more time as the #1 seed in the West this season than they did in their first 34 years of existence.
— 23 years ago, Mark Cuban bought the Dallas Mavericks for $285M; he just sold them for $3.5B, plus he retains control of basketball operations in the deal.
There are some conspiracy theories as to why this happened:
The Adelson family wants to own a casino(s) in Texas, once Texas legalizes gambling.
If that doesn’t happen, Adelsons might move the Mavericks to Las Vegas
Cuban might be thinking of running for President.
We’ll see what happens, but it must be nice to be so freakin’ rich.
— I mentioned a few weeks ago how I was intrigued by Rice QB JT Daniels as a longshot NFL Draft prospect; he’s played at several different colleges, but now word comes out of Houston that Daniels has been advised to medically retire from football because of all the concussions he’s had over the years.
Daniels told ESPN that he plans to get into coaching; he knows a lot of people after a playing career at four different schools over six years. Networking will help him get his first job.
— When Florida State got left out of the college football playoff, it cost the ACC $6M from the money that the playoff generates; 14 teams in the ACC, that’s $428,571 per school.
Odds to get the #1 pick in this year’s baseball draft:
18.3%- A’s, Royals, Rockies
14.7%- White Sox
8.3%- Cardinals
6.1%- Angels
4.3%- Mets
3.0%- Pirates
The lottery for the draft is Tuesday at 5:30.
Quote of the Day
“I’m not offended at all by dumb blonde jokes, because I know I’m not dumb, and I know I’m not a blonde.”
Dolly Parton
Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; who was LSU’s coach that year?
Monday’s quiz
UNLV lost 36-14 to North Texas in the 2013 Heart of Texas Bowl, the last time the Rebels were in a bowl game.
Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Miami Dolphins in 2005-06.
*******************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….
Bengals 34, Jaguars 31, OTBackup QB Browning was 32-37/354 passing for his first NFL win.
McPherson kicked a 48-yard FG in overtime for the win.
Chase caught 11 passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Bengals were 8-14 on third down, Jacksonville 6-15.
Jaguars lost QB Lawrence late in game with an ankle injury.
Jaguars scored four touchdowns on their first seven drives.
Jaguars’ last four drives: 27 plays, 111 yards, 3 points.
Under Pederson, Jags are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— There are two Monday night games next week, both at 8:15:
Packers @ Giants, Titans @ Miami
— In their 6-0 loss to the Chargers Sunday, New England’s average starting position on their 10 drives was their own 14-yard line, which is terrible field position.
In all the NFL games since 2000, counting playoff games, this was the worst average starting field position by any team, in any one game.
New England is also the only team since 1938 to give up 10 or fewer points three games in a row, and lose all three games.
— Bears beat Minnesota 12-10 last Monday night; in that game, Justin Fields’ average pass length was 2.7 yards downfield, the shortest by any QB in a game since Tony Romo in 2010.
He threw 12 screen passes; only 19 of his 37 passes were beyond the line of scrimmage.
— In their two post-bye games, Atlanta Falcons haven’t allowed a touchdown on 22 drives; opponents have tried 8 field goals on those 22 drives, but haven’t scored a TD, and Atlanta won both games.
— In their last three games, Denver Broncos are only 8-37 on third down.
— Tennessee Titans lost in overtime Sunday; they’re 4-8, and fired their special teams coach Monday. Titans had a punt blocked for a TD Sunday; their punter also lost a fumble, and hurt his knee trying to recover it- he’s out for the year.
Tennessee also blocked a Colts’ PAT and ran it back for two points, but they lost, and there have to be scapegoats, so the special teams coach was told to take a hike, after six years with the Titans.
— Steelers’ QB Kenny Pickett had ankle surgery Monday, to “accelerate the healing process” on his sprained right ankle, according to Mike Tomlin.
— Word of the Day: Anagram- a word or phrase that is made by switching around the letters of another word or phrase.
For example, “listen” is an anagram for “silent”
“ocean” is an anagram for “canoe”
— Random trend for the upcoming bowl games:
Over the last five years, bowl underdogs who lost their conference championship game have gone 15-9 against the spread in their bowl games.
— Hotel rates for Super Bowl weekend (February 9-12) in Las Vegas:
Aria $1,467/night.
Bellagio $1,600/night.
Cosmopolitan $1,600/night.
Fountainblue $1,567/night.
Venetian $1,199/night.
Yikes.
— Wealthiest owners in pro sports:
$100B- Steve Ballmer, LA Clippers
$67B- Rob Walton, Denver Broncos
$32B- Miriam Adelson, new owner of Dallas Mavericks
$21B- Dan Gilbert, Cleveland Cavaliers
$20B- David Tepper, Carolina Panthers
— In their first 34 years of existence, the Minnesota Timberwolves spent a total of 10 days as the #1-seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. Thats 10 days in 34 years.
This season, Minnesota is 15-4, the #1-seed in the West; they’ve spent more time as the #1 seed in the West this season than they did in their first 34 years of existence.
— 23 years ago, Mark Cuban bought the Dallas Mavericks for $285M; he just sold them for $3.5B, plus he retains control of basketball operations in the deal.
There are some conspiracy theories as to why this happened:
The Adelson family wants to own a casino(s) in Texas, once Texas legalizes gambling.
If that doesn’t happen, Adelsons might move the Mavericks to Las Vegas
Cuban might be thinking of running for President.
We’ll see what happens, but it must be nice to be so freakin’ rich.
— I mentioned a few weeks ago how I was intrigued by Rice QB JT Daniels as a longshot NFL Draft prospect; he’s played at several different colleges, but now word comes out of Houston that Daniels has been advised to medically retire from football because of all the concussions he’s had over the years.
Daniels told ESPN that he plans to get into coaching; he knows a lot of people after a playing career at four different schools over six years. Networking will help him get his first job.
— When Florida State got left out of the college football playoff, it cost the ACC $6M from the money that the playoff generates; 14 teams in the ACC, that’s $428,571 per school.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,428
- 17
- 38
NFL
Week 14
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Trend Report
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New England @ Pittsburgh
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games
Detroit @ Chicago
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina @ New Orleans
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
LA Rams @ Baltimore
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Rams's last 15 games on the road
LA Rams is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Indianapolis @ Cincinnati
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston @ NY Jets
Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
Minnesota @ Las Vegas
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Francisco is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
Buffalo @ Kansas City
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 13 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Denver @ LA Chargers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
Philadelphia @ Dallas
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Tennessee @ Miami
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 14 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay @ NY Giants
Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Giants's last 10 games
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Week 14
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Trend Report
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New England @ Pittsburgh
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games
Detroit @ Chicago
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina @ New Orleans
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
LA Rams @ Baltimore
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Rams's last 15 games on the road
LA Rams is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Indianapolis @ Cincinnati
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston @ NY Jets
Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
Minnesota @ Las Vegas
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Francisco is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
Buffalo @ Kansas City
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 13 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Denver @ LA Chargers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
Philadelphia @ Dallas
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Tennessee @ Miami
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 14 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay @ NY Giants
Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Giants's last 10 games
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- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,428
- 17
- 38
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 14
Thursday’s game
Patriots (2-10) @ Steelers (7-5)
— Patriots lost five in row, eight of last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— Last three games, NE was outscored 16-3 in first half.
— NE lost last four games by 3-4-3-6 points.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England is minus-9 in turnovers this year.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-35 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-100 without Brady.
— Zappe is 2-1 as an NFL starting QB, Mac James 18-26.
— Last three games, Patriots held opponents to 264-220-241 yards.
— Under is 9-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East teams are 11-17 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 11-1. Opponents’ team total: 6-6 over
— Steelers scored 10-16-10 points in their last three games.
— They fired their offensive coordinator last week.
— Steelers are 4-3 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 20-6 in first half.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 165.2 yards/game.
— Last 11 games, Steelers have a +11 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 10-2 in Steeler games.
— Backup QB Trubisky is 31-26 as NFL starter, 2-3 with Pittsburgh.
— AFC North home favorites are 10-3-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— New England won six of last seven meetings.
— Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS in last ten visits to Pittsburgh.
— Last six series games stayed under the total.
Sunday’s games
Buccaneers (5-7) @ Falcons (6-6)
— Bucs lost six of last eight games (4-2 ATS last six)
— Bucs are 0-6 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU/5-1 ATS on road this year.
— Bucs have 18 takeaways in 12 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Bucs are 15-13 ATS in last 28 NFC South road games.
— Under is 8-4 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 11-10 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Tampa is 9-7-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Mayfield is 37-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: under 6-5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5-1
— Falcons lost three of their last five games.
— Last two games, Atlanta didn’t allow a TD, on 22 drives.
— underdogs covered six of Atlanta’s last seven games.
— Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— under Smith, Falcons are 2-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last four games, Falcons were 25-54 on third down.
— Last three games, Atlanta is +4 in turnovers (6-2)
— Atlanta is 18-23-3 in last 44 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 4-1 ATS in last five NFC South home games.
— Ridder is 8-6 as an NFL starting QB.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Atlanta games.
— Team total: under 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-5-2
— Falcons (+2.5) won 16-13 in Tampa back in Week 7.
— Buccaneers won six of last eight series games.
— Bucs are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
— Over is 9-3 in last 12 meetings.
Lions (9-3) @ Bears (4-8)
— Lions are 8-2 SU/6-4 ATS in their last ten games.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29 points in their three losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 4-1 ATS as road favorite (4-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 11-6 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 31-14-1 ATS overall.
— Last three games, Detroit is minus-3 in turnovers (4-7)
— Last four games, Lions ran ball for 162.5 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 11 of last 23 third down plays (47.8%).
— Goff is 65-51-1 as an NFL starter, 21-20-1 with the Lions.
— over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Lions covered their last five NFC North road games.
— Team total: under 6-6. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Chicago is 2-6 when Fields starts at QB, 2-2 when Bagent starts.
— Bears are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Last four games, Bears ran ball for 145 yards/game.
— Chicago is 2-8 when it scores less than 30 points
— In Fields starts, Bears are 45-110 (40.9%) on third down.
— In Bagent’s four starts, Bears were 26-54 (48.1%) on third down.
— Fields is 7-26 as an NFL starter.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 159-115 in second half.
— last 2+ years, Bears are 13-33 SU/18-26-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as home underdogs (2-1 TY).
— Chicago is 2-7 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— Bears are 1-10 ATS in last 11 NFC North home games.
— Team total: under 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Bears (+8) lost 31-26 at Detroit three weeks ago.
— Lions scored 17 points in last 3:00 of that game.
— Detroit won last three meetings, scoring 41-31-31 points.
— Lions are 2-4-1 ATS in last seven visits to Chicago.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games played here.
Colts (7-5) @ Bengals (6-6)
— Indianapolis won/covered last four games.
— Colts scored 27-31 points in their last two games.
— Colts are 0-5 giving up 29+ points, 7-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— QB Minshew is 13-19 as an NFL starter, 5-3 TY.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— In its last four games, Indy was +6 in turnovers (9-3)
— Colts are 11-12 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 5-2 in Indy’s last seven games.
— Colts are 10-8 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 9-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— Short week for Cincinnati after their win Monday night.
— Bengals lost three of last four games, giving up 30+ points three times.
— QB Burrow is out for the year.
— QB Browning was 32-37/354 passing Monday, his 2nd NFL start.
— Bengals are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 1-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Last eight games, Bengals are +7 in turnovers. (14-7)
— Cincinnati split six home games this year (losses by 3-3-6 points)
— Cincinnati is 16-10-2 ATS in last 28 home games.
— Bengals are 11-3 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win (2-2 TY).
— Bengals are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Three of Bengals’ last four games went over total.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— Bengals won four of last six series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Colts are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Cincinnati.
— Over is 4-1 last five meetings.
Jaguars (8-4) @ Browns (7-5)
— Short week for Jacksonville after Monday night’s loss
— QB Lawrence has high ankle sprain (check status)
— Jaguars won/covered seven of their last nine games.
— Last three games, Jags outscored foes 40-21 in first half.
— This season, Jags are 6-0 SU/ATS outside Jacksonville.
— since 2018, Jags are 13-22-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Pederson, Jaguars are 6-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two games, opponents are 14-27 on third down.
— Jaguars are minus-5 in turnovers in their losses (+4 in wins).
— Pederson is 64-52-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-26 as an NFL starter.
— Backup QB Beathard is 2-10 as an NFL starter (last start, 2020)
— Team total: over 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
— Unclear which QB will start; Flacco is back on practice squad.
— Browns have started four different QB’s in 12 games.
— Cleveland lost last two weeks, giving up 29-36 points.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Last 3 weeks, Browns ran ball for 96.7 yards/game (151.2/previous five).
— Last three games, Cleveland is minus-4 in turnovers (1-5)
— Browns are 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Browns are 5-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-5 allowing 24+.
— Cleveland won/covered five of six home games TY.
— Opponents have converted only 42-152 (27.6%) third down plays.
— over is 5-2 in last seven Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 19-13-1 outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— These teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Jaguars won three of last four series games.
— Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in last seven visits here.
— Under is 4-3 in last seven series games played here.
Panthers (1-11) @ Saints (5-7)
— Carolina lost his last five games (2-3 ATS)
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants last week.
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-49 in first half.
— In six post-bye games, Panthers scored six TD’s on 59 drives.
— In six post-bye games, Carolina scored 13.2 ppg.
— Carolina is 10-19-1 ATS in last 30 games following a loss.
— Young’s nine starts (1-10), Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Last six games, Carolina was held to 224-275-213-187-258-282 yards.
— Panthers are 12-14 ATS in last 26 NFC South road games.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Saints lost last three games, giving up 27-24-33 points.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of those games.
— New Orleans is 4-2 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Opponents have nine TD’s on their last 31 drives.
— Last three games, New Orleans is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Last five games, Saints were 29-66 on third down.
— Saints are 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS at home this season.
— NO is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite (0-4 TY)
— Last four games, Saints gave up 162.8 rushing yards/game.
— over is 4-2 in Saints’ last six games.
— New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in last four NFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Saints (-3) beat Carolina 20-17 in Charlotte in Week 2.
— Panthers won three of last four series games.
— Carolina is 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Bourbon Street.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.
Texans (7-5) @ Jets (4-8)
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Underdogs covered eight of their last ten games.
— since 2016, Houston is 1-6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three games, opponents are 10-34 on third down.
— Texans are 3-2 SU/ATS on road this season.
— Last five weeks, Texans scored 26.6 points/game.
— Houston is 11-13-1 in last 25 games coming off a win.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
— last two weeks, Texans were +4 in turnovers (4-0)
— six of their last nine games stayed under the total.
— Team total: under 7-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 9-3
— #3 QB Boyle got cut Tuesday; Siemian would be 4th starter TY.
— Jets lost last five games, scoring 9.0 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 71 drives.
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20-6-12-6-13-8 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-12 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog
— Last ten games, Jets converted 32-147 (21.8%) third down plays.
— Jets have scored ten TD’s, have 48 3/outs on 134 drives.
— Siemian is 13-17 as an NFL starter; Zach Wilson is 11-20.
— Jets are 24-37 ATS in last 61 games coming off a loss.
— AFC East underdogs are 4-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Houston won three of last four series games.
— Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to the Garden State.
— under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Rams (7-6) @ Ravens (9-3)
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— LA is 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 2-6 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS on road this season.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 78-35 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Rams outscored last three opponents 49-18 in second half.
— Stafford is 25-16 as a starter with the Rams.
— LA is 2-7-1 ATS last ten games as a road underdog (1-2-1 TY)
— Rams are 3-6-1 ATS last eight games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-3 in Rams’ last eight games.
— LA is 5-8-2 ATS last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: under 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4-1
— Ravens won six of last seven games (5-2 ATS).
— Last five games, Baltimore scored 17 TD’s on 52 drives.
— Last four games, they ran ball for 298-106-157-197 yards.
— Last nine games, Ravens outscored foes 156-41 in first half.
— Baltimore is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Ravens are 9-1 when they score 20+ points, 0-2 if they do not.
— Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in last five games coming off a bye.
— Baltimore is minus-6 in TO’s in its losses, +8 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 55-22 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— over is 4-2 in Baltimore’s last five games.
— AFC North teams are 19-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-4. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3-1
— Ravens won four of last five series games.
— Rams won last visit here 20-19 in 2021, scoring a late TD.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Vikings (6-6) @ Raiders (5-7)
— Vikings lost last two games, by total of three points.
— Minnesota was minus-5 in turnovers (2-7) in those games.
— Last seven games, Minnesota is 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS
— Minnesota is 5-6 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
— Vikings are 5-3 when they allow less than 27 points.
— Minnesota has lost field position battle in 11 of 12 games.
— Overall, Dobbs is 2-11 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a bye
— Under is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last ten games.
— NFC North underdogs are 9-11-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 6-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3-1
— Las Vegas is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS since its coaching change.
— In those games, opponents were 18-50 on third down.
— Last three games, Raiders 16-13-17 points.
— Home team won 8 of Raiders’ last 9 games (7-2 ATS).
— Raiders won/covered four of last five home games.
— Last six games, Las Vegas is 25-75 on third down.
— Raiders are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six post-bye games.,
— Raiders are 13-12-1 ATS last 26 games as a home underdog.
— Under is 9-3 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 12-17 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Las Vegas is 13-23-2 ATS in last 38 games vs NFC teams.
— Team total: under 11-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Vikings won three of last four series games.
— This is their first visit to Las Vegas.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (9-3)
— Seattle lost last three games, giving up 17-31-41 points.
— Seahawks are 6-1 scoring 20+ points, 0-5 scoring less than 20.
— Seahawks were outscored 101-30 in second half of their losses.
— Last six games, Seattle converted 21-78 (26.9%) third down plays.
— Seattle is 16-13 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Seattle is 15-9-1 ATS in its last 25 games as a road dog (3-2 TY).
— Geno Smith is 28-35 as an NFL starter, 16-17 with Seattle.
— Seahawks are 5-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 1-6 if they don’t.
— Seattle is 3-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Over is 3-1 in Seattle’s last four games.
— Seahawks are 4-6 ATS in last ten NFC West road games.
— Team total: under 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 7-4-1
— SF scored 34-27-31-42 points in winning its three post-bye games.
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17 in losses.
— Last four weeks, 49ers were +6 in turnovers (6-0)
— 49ers have outscored opponents 157-89 in 2nd half.
— SF ran ball for 169-146 yards in their last two games.
— 49ers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— SF is 14-12 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— 49ers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— SF is 7-3 ATS in last ten NFC West home games.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 16-4 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-6
— 49ers (-7) won 31-13 in Seattle two weeks ago.
— SF outgained Seahawks 377-220, led 24-3 at the half.
— 49ers won last four series games.
— Seattle is 7-3 ATS in last ten visits to San Antonio
— Over is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
Broncos (6-6) @ Chargers (5-7)
— Broncos are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six games.
— Three of those five wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Denver was minus-3 in turnovers LW (+11 in previous 4 games)
— Broncos outscored last five opponents 64-46 in first half.
— Denver is 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS on road this season.
— Last three weeks, Denver converted 8-37 on third down.
— Broncos are 11-14-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Denver is 17-14-1 ATS last 32 games as a road underdog.
— Six of last eight Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 123-77-1 as an NFL starter, 10-17 with Denver.
— Denver is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Team total: under 7-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
— LA is 3-5 since its bye, with three losses by 3 points.
— Chargers are 0-5 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 10-11-2 ATS at home.
— Chargers lost four of six home games this season.
— under Staley, Bolts are 9-8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Chargers have 11 takeaways (+8) in wins, three (minus-7) in losses.
— Herbert is 30-32 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Chargers are 5-2 in last seven AFC West home games.
— Team total: under 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
— Teams split their last six meetings (home teams 6-0 SU/4-0-2 ATS)
— Broncos are 2-4-2 ATS in last eight road series games.
— Under is 9-1 in last 10 series games where Chargers were home.
Bills (6-6) @ Chiefs (8-4)
— Buffalo is 3-5 SU in its last eight games (1-6-1 ATS).
— Buffalo fired OC Dorsey two weeks ago.
— Bills are 6-0 giving up 20 or less points, 0-6 giving up more than 20.
— Last two games, Buffalo has a +3 turnover ratio (5-2).
— Bills are 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Buffalo outscored last 11 foes 169-92 in second half.
— Josh Allen is 53-35 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 7-0 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Buffalo is 2-6 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5-1
— Chiefs lost three of last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Last five games, Chiefs were outscored 54-30 in second half.
— In last five games, Chiefs gained 6+ yards/pass attempt once.
— KC has outscored opponents 192-94 in first half.
— Chiefs have 11 takeaways in their wins (+1), 3 in losses (minus-5)
— KC is 13-15 ATS in last 28 games as a home favorite (3-2 TY).
— Chiefs held eight of last ten foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
— Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in last six games coming off a loss.
— Mahomes is 83-23 SU as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 13-19-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 9-3. Opponents’ team total: under 9-3
— Buffalo won last two meetings (24-20/38-20), both at Arrowhead.
— Bills are 9-4 ATS in last 13 visits to Kansas City.
— Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Eagles (10-2) @ Cowboys (9-3)
— Eagles won 10 of first 12 games (6-3-3 ATS)
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran for 46 yards LW, their least YR this season.
— Last eight games, Philly is minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last six games, Eagles have 23 TD’s on 59 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in all of their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 35-15 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Hurts is 35-15 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Eagles were minus-4 in turnovers in their two losses (+6 in wins).
— Team total: over 7-4-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Cowboys won/covered six of last seven games.
— Last four weeks, Dallas scored 42 points/game.
— Dallas scored 16-10-23 points in losses, 37.7 ppg in wins.
— Dallas won its five home games TY by 20-35-23-32-35-6 points.
— Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (5-1 TY)
— Cowboys are +12 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-13 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
— QB Prescott is 73-42 as an NFL starter.
— Last four games, Cowboys are 27-52 on third down.
— Dallas is 8-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
— Last six Dallas games went over the total.
— Team total: over 9-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5-1
— Dallas (+3) lost 28-23 at Philly in Week 9.
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five visits to Dallas.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Monday’s games
Packers (6-6) @ Giants (4-8)
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay outscored last two foes 39-12 in first half.
— Last three games, Packers are +5 in turnovers (5-0)
— Packers are 2-4 SU/ATS on the road this year.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 32-65 on third down.
— Packers are 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
— Jordan Love is 6-7 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Green Bay gave up 205-150-140-148 rushing yards.
— Team total: under 6-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Giants won their last two games, giving up 19-7 points.
— Last five weeks, Big Blue was outscored 68-24 in first half.
— Rookie QB DeVito won two of his first three NFL starts.
— Last five weeks, Giants are 14-70 on third down.
— Giants are averaging only 258.8 yards/game this season.
— Last eight games, Giants are +13 in turnovers.
— Giants are 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games coming off a win.
— since 2018, Big Blue is 11-20-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under is 9-3 in Giant games this season.
— NFC East teams are 16-16-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-6
— Teams split their last eight meetings.
— Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to the Garden State
— Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Titans (4-8) @ Dolphins (9-3)
— Titans lost six of their last eight games SU.
— Tennessee is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS away from home this year.
— Titans are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— Tennessee fired its special teams coach TW, after six years there.
— Titans are 3-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-7 scoring 17 or less.
— Last seven games, Tennessee converted 25-82 (30.5%) on third down.
— Tennessee is 5-8-1 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Titans are minus-5 in turnovers (8-13) so far this season.
— Rookie QB Levis is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
— Titans scored 3 TD’s on 26 drives in his three road starts.
— Seven of their last ten games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-3-3
— Dolphins won four of their last five games.
— Miami outscored last four opponents 51-15 in second half.
— Favorites are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
— Miami scored 31+ points in seven of nine wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— Last eight games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (10-16).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 47 TD’s on 125 drives.
— Last two games, Miami converted 18-29 third down plays.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-6 ATS coming off a win.
— over is 3-2 in their home games this year.
— Tagovailoa is 30-16 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Teams split their last eight meetings.
— Titans are 3-4 ATS in their last seven visits to Miami.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 14
Thursday’s game
Patriots (2-10) @ Steelers (7-5)
— Patriots lost five in row, eight of last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— Last three games, NE was outscored 16-3 in first half.
— NE lost last four games by 3-4-3-6 points.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England is minus-9 in turnovers this year.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-35 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-100 without Brady.
— Zappe is 2-1 as an NFL starting QB, Mac James 18-26.
— Last three games, Patriots held opponents to 264-220-241 yards.
— Under is 9-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East teams are 11-17 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 11-1. Opponents’ team total: 6-6 over
— Steelers scored 10-16-10 points in their last three games.
— They fired their offensive coordinator last week.
— Steelers are 4-3 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 20-6 in first half.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 165.2 yards/game.
— Last 11 games, Steelers have a +11 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 10-2 in Steeler games.
— Backup QB Trubisky is 31-26 as NFL starter, 2-3 with Pittsburgh.
— AFC North home favorites are 10-3-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— New England won six of last seven meetings.
— Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS in last ten visits to Pittsburgh.
— Last six series games stayed under the total.
Sunday’s games
Buccaneers (5-7) @ Falcons (6-6)
— Bucs lost six of last eight games (4-2 ATS last six)
— Bucs are 0-6 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU/5-1 ATS on road this year.
— Bucs have 18 takeaways in 12 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Bucs are 15-13 ATS in last 28 NFC South road games.
— Under is 8-4 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 11-10 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Tampa is 9-7-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Mayfield is 37-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: under 6-5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5-1
— Falcons lost three of their last five games.
— Last two games, Atlanta didn’t allow a TD, on 22 drives.
— underdogs covered six of Atlanta’s last seven games.
— Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— under Smith, Falcons are 2-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last four games, Falcons were 25-54 on third down.
— Last three games, Atlanta is +4 in turnovers (6-2)
— Atlanta is 18-23-3 in last 44 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 4-1 ATS in last five NFC South home games.
— Ridder is 8-6 as an NFL starting QB.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Atlanta games.
— Team total: under 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-5-2
— Falcons (+2.5) won 16-13 in Tampa back in Week 7.
— Buccaneers won six of last eight series games.
— Bucs are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
— Over is 9-3 in last 12 meetings.
Lions (9-3) @ Bears (4-8)
— Lions are 8-2 SU/6-4 ATS in their last ten games.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29 points in their three losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 4-1 ATS as road favorite (4-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 11-6 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 31-14-1 ATS overall.
— Last three games, Detroit is minus-3 in turnovers (4-7)
— Last four games, Lions ran ball for 162.5 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 11 of last 23 third down plays (47.8%).
— Goff is 65-51-1 as an NFL starter, 21-20-1 with the Lions.
— over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Lions covered their last five NFC North road games.
— Team total: under 6-6. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Chicago is 2-6 when Fields starts at QB, 2-2 when Bagent starts.
— Bears are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Last four games, Bears ran ball for 145 yards/game.
— Chicago is 2-8 when it scores less than 30 points
— In Fields starts, Bears are 45-110 (40.9%) on third down.
— In Bagent’s four starts, Bears were 26-54 (48.1%) on third down.
— Fields is 7-26 as an NFL starter.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 159-115 in second half.
— last 2+ years, Bears are 13-33 SU/18-26-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as home underdogs (2-1 TY).
— Chicago is 2-7 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— Bears are 1-10 ATS in last 11 NFC North home games.
— Team total: under 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Bears (+8) lost 31-26 at Detroit three weeks ago.
— Lions scored 17 points in last 3:00 of that game.
— Detroit won last three meetings, scoring 41-31-31 points.
— Lions are 2-4-1 ATS in last seven visits to Chicago.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games played here.
Colts (7-5) @ Bengals (6-6)
— Indianapolis won/covered last four games.
— Colts scored 27-31 points in their last two games.
— Colts are 0-5 giving up 29+ points, 7-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— QB Minshew is 13-19 as an NFL starter, 5-3 TY.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— In its last four games, Indy was +6 in turnovers (9-3)
— Colts are 11-12 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 5-2 in Indy’s last seven games.
— Colts are 10-8 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 9-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— Short week for Cincinnati after their win Monday night.
— Bengals lost three of last four games, giving up 30+ points three times.
— QB Burrow is out for the year.
— QB Browning was 32-37/354 passing Monday, his 2nd NFL start.
— Bengals are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 1-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Last eight games, Bengals are +7 in turnovers. (14-7)
— Cincinnati split six home games this year (losses by 3-3-6 points)
— Cincinnati is 16-10-2 ATS in last 28 home games.
— Bengals are 11-3 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win (2-2 TY).
— Bengals are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Three of Bengals’ last four games went over total.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— Bengals won four of last six series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Colts are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Cincinnati.
— Over is 4-1 last five meetings.
Jaguars (8-4) @ Browns (7-5)
— Short week for Jacksonville after Monday night’s loss
— QB Lawrence has high ankle sprain (check status)
— Jaguars won/covered seven of their last nine games.
— Last three games, Jags outscored foes 40-21 in first half.
— This season, Jags are 6-0 SU/ATS outside Jacksonville.
— since 2018, Jags are 13-22-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Pederson, Jaguars are 6-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two games, opponents are 14-27 on third down.
— Jaguars are minus-5 in turnovers in their losses (+4 in wins).
— Pederson is 64-52-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-26 as an NFL starter.
— Backup QB Beathard is 2-10 as an NFL starter (last start, 2020)
— Team total: over 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
— Unclear which QB will start; Flacco is back on practice squad.
— Browns have started four different QB’s in 12 games.
— Cleveland lost last two weeks, giving up 29-36 points.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Last 3 weeks, Browns ran ball for 96.7 yards/game (151.2/previous five).
— Last three games, Cleveland is minus-4 in turnovers (1-5)
— Browns are 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Browns are 5-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-5 allowing 24+.
— Cleveland won/covered five of six home games TY.
— Opponents have converted only 42-152 (27.6%) third down plays.
— over is 5-2 in last seven Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 19-13-1 outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
— These teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Jaguars won three of last four series games.
— Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in last seven visits here.
— Under is 4-3 in last seven series games played here.
Panthers (1-11) @ Saints (5-7)
— Carolina lost his last five games (2-3 ATS)
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants last week.
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-49 in first half.
— In six post-bye games, Panthers scored six TD’s on 59 drives.
— In six post-bye games, Carolina scored 13.2 ppg.
— Carolina is 10-19-1 ATS in last 30 games following a loss.
— Young’s nine starts (1-10), Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Last six games, Carolina was held to 224-275-213-187-258-282 yards.
— Panthers are 12-14 ATS in last 26 NFC South road games.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Saints lost last three games, giving up 27-24-33 points.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of those games.
— New Orleans is 4-2 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Opponents have nine TD’s on their last 31 drives.
— Last three games, New Orleans is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Last five games, Saints were 29-66 on third down.
— Saints are 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS at home this season.
— NO is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite (0-4 TY)
— Last four games, Saints gave up 162.8 rushing yards/game.
— over is 4-2 in Saints’ last six games.
— New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in last four NFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Saints (-3) beat Carolina 20-17 in Charlotte in Week 2.
— Panthers won three of last four series games.
— Carolina is 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Bourbon Street.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.
Texans (7-5) @ Jets (4-8)
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Underdogs covered eight of their last ten games.
— since 2016, Houston is 1-6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three games, opponents are 10-34 on third down.
— Texans are 3-2 SU/ATS on road this season.
— Last five weeks, Texans scored 26.6 points/game.
— Houston is 11-13-1 in last 25 games coming off a win.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
— last two weeks, Texans were +4 in turnovers (4-0)
— six of their last nine games stayed under the total.
— Team total: under 7-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 9-3
— #3 QB Boyle got cut Tuesday; Siemian would be 4th starter TY.
— Jets lost last five games, scoring 9.0 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 71 drives.
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20-6-12-6-13-8 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-12 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog
— Last ten games, Jets converted 32-147 (21.8%) third down plays.
— Jets have scored ten TD’s, have 48 3/outs on 134 drives.
— Siemian is 13-17 as an NFL starter; Zach Wilson is 11-20.
— Jets are 24-37 ATS in last 61 games coming off a loss.
— AFC East underdogs are 4-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Houston won three of last four series games.
— Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to the Garden State.
— under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Rams (7-6) @ Ravens (9-3)
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— LA is 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 2-6 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS on road this season.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 78-35 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Rams outscored last three opponents 49-18 in second half.
— Stafford is 25-16 as a starter with the Rams.
— LA is 2-7-1 ATS last ten games as a road underdog (1-2-1 TY)
— Rams are 3-6-1 ATS last eight games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-3 in Rams’ last eight games.
— LA is 5-8-2 ATS last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: under 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4-1
— Ravens won six of last seven games (5-2 ATS).
— Last five games, Baltimore scored 17 TD’s on 52 drives.
— Last four games, they ran ball for 298-106-157-197 yards.
— Last nine games, Ravens outscored foes 156-41 in first half.
— Baltimore is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Ravens are 9-1 when they score 20+ points, 0-2 if they do not.
— Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in last five games coming off a bye.
— Baltimore is minus-6 in TO’s in its losses, +8 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 55-22 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— over is 4-2 in Baltimore’s last five games.
— AFC North teams are 19-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-4. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3-1
— Ravens won four of last five series games.
— Rams won last visit here 20-19 in 2021, scoring a late TD.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Vikings (6-6) @ Raiders (5-7)
— Vikings lost last two games, by total of three points.
— Minnesota was minus-5 in turnovers (2-7) in those games.
— Last seven games, Minnesota is 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS
— Minnesota is 5-6 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
— Vikings are 5-3 when they allow less than 27 points.
— Minnesota has lost field position battle in 11 of 12 games.
— Overall, Dobbs is 2-11 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a bye
— Under is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last ten games.
— NFC North underdogs are 9-11-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 6-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3-1
— Las Vegas is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS since its coaching change.
— In those games, opponents were 18-50 on third down.
— Last three games, Raiders 16-13-17 points.
— Home team won 8 of Raiders’ last 9 games (7-2 ATS).
— Raiders won/covered four of last five home games.
— Last six games, Las Vegas is 25-75 on third down.
— Raiders are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six post-bye games.,
— Raiders are 13-12-1 ATS last 26 games as a home underdog.
— Under is 9-3 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 12-17 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Las Vegas is 13-23-2 ATS in last 38 games vs NFC teams.
— Team total: under 11-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Vikings won three of last four series games.
— This is their first visit to Las Vegas.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (9-3)
— Seattle lost last three games, giving up 17-31-41 points.
— Seahawks are 6-1 scoring 20+ points, 0-5 scoring less than 20.
— Seahawks were outscored 101-30 in second half of their losses.
— Last six games, Seattle converted 21-78 (26.9%) third down plays.
— Seattle is 16-13 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Seattle is 15-9-1 ATS in its last 25 games as a road dog (3-2 TY).
— Geno Smith is 28-35 as an NFL starter, 16-17 with Seattle.
— Seahawks are 5-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 1-6 if they don’t.
— Seattle is 3-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Over is 3-1 in Seattle’s last four games.
— Seahawks are 4-6 ATS in last ten NFC West road games.
— Team total: under 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 7-4-1
— SF scored 34-27-31-42 points in winning its three post-bye games.
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17 in losses.
— Last four weeks, 49ers were +6 in turnovers (6-0)
— 49ers have outscored opponents 157-89 in 2nd half.
— SF ran ball for 169-146 yards in their last two games.
— 49ers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— SF is 14-12 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— 49ers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— SF is 7-3 ATS in last ten NFC West home games.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 16-4 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-6
— 49ers (-7) won 31-13 in Seattle two weeks ago.
— SF outgained Seahawks 377-220, led 24-3 at the half.
— 49ers won last four series games.
— Seattle is 7-3 ATS in last ten visits to San Antonio
— Over is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
Broncos (6-6) @ Chargers (5-7)
— Broncos are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six games.
— Three of those five wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Denver was minus-3 in turnovers LW (+11 in previous 4 games)
— Broncos outscored last five opponents 64-46 in first half.
— Denver is 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS on road this season.
— Last three weeks, Denver converted 8-37 on third down.
— Broncos are 11-14-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Denver is 17-14-1 ATS last 32 games as a road underdog.
— Six of last eight Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 123-77-1 as an NFL starter, 10-17 with Denver.
— Denver is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Team total: under 7-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
— LA is 3-5 since its bye, with three losses by 3 points.
— Chargers are 0-5 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 10-11-2 ATS at home.
— Chargers lost four of six home games this season.
— under Staley, Bolts are 9-8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Chargers have 11 takeaways (+8) in wins, three (minus-7) in losses.
— Herbert is 30-32 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Chargers are 5-2 in last seven AFC West home games.
— Team total: under 6-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
— Teams split their last six meetings (home teams 6-0 SU/4-0-2 ATS)
— Broncos are 2-4-2 ATS in last eight road series games.
— Under is 9-1 in last 10 series games where Chargers were home.
Bills (6-6) @ Chiefs (8-4)
— Buffalo is 3-5 SU in its last eight games (1-6-1 ATS).
— Buffalo fired OC Dorsey two weeks ago.
— Bills are 6-0 giving up 20 or less points, 0-6 giving up more than 20.
— Last two games, Buffalo has a +3 turnover ratio (5-2).
— Bills are 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Buffalo outscored last 11 foes 169-92 in second half.
— Josh Allen is 53-35 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 7-0 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Buffalo is 2-6 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5-1
— Chiefs lost three of last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Last five games, Chiefs were outscored 54-30 in second half.
— In last five games, Chiefs gained 6+ yards/pass attempt once.
— KC has outscored opponents 192-94 in first half.
— Chiefs have 11 takeaways in their wins (+1), 3 in losses (minus-5)
— KC is 13-15 ATS in last 28 games as a home favorite (3-2 TY).
— Chiefs held eight of last ten foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
— Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in last six games coming off a loss.
— Mahomes is 83-23 SU as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 13-19-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 9-3. Opponents’ team total: under 9-3
— Buffalo won last two meetings (24-20/38-20), both at Arrowhead.
— Bills are 9-4 ATS in last 13 visits to Kansas City.
— Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Eagles (10-2) @ Cowboys (9-3)
— Eagles won 10 of first 12 games (6-3-3 ATS)
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran for 46 yards LW, their least YR this season.
— Last eight games, Philly is minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last six games, Eagles have 23 TD’s on 59 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in all of their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 35-15 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Hurts is 35-15 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Eagles were minus-4 in turnovers in their two losses (+6 in wins).
— Team total: over 7-4-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
— Cowboys won/covered six of last seven games.
— Last four weeks, Dallas scored 42 points/game.
— Dallas scored 16-10-23 points in losses, 37.7 ppg in wins.
— Dallas won its five home games TY by 20-35-23-32-35-6 points.
— Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (5-1 TY)
— Cowboys are +12 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-13 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
— QB Prescott is 73-42 as an NFL starter.
— Last four games, Cowboys are 27-52 on third down.
— Dallas is 8-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
— Last six Dallas games went over the total.
— Team total: over 9-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5-1
— Dallas (+3) lost 28-23 at Philly in Week 9.
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five visits to Dallas.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Monday’s games
Packers (6-6) @ Giants (4-8)
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay outscored last two foes 39-12 in first half.
— Last three games, Packers are +5 in turnovers (5-0)
— Packers are 2-4 SU/ATS on the road this year.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 32-65 on third down.
— Packers are 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
— Jordan Love is 6-7 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Green Bay gave up 205-150-140-148 rushing yards.
— Team total: under 6-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Giants won their last two games, giving up 19-7 points.
— Last five weeks, Big Blue was outscored 68-24 in first half.
— Rookie QB DeVito won two of his first three NFL starts.
— Last five weeks, Giants are 14-70 on third down.
— Giants are averaging only 258.8 yards/game this season.
— Last eight games, Giants are +13 in turnovers.
— Giants are 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games coming off a win.
— since 2018, Big Blue is 11-20-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under is 9-3 in Giant games this season.
— NFC East teams are 16-16-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-6
— Teams split their last eight meetings.
— Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to the Garden State
— Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Titans (4-8) @ Dolphins (9-3)
— Titans lost six of their last eight games SU.
— Tennessee is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS away from home this year.
— Titans are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— Tennessee fired its special teams coach TW, after six years there.
— Titans are 3-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-7 scoring 17 or less.
— Last seven games, Tennessee converted 25-82 (30.5%) on third down.
— Tennessee is 5-8-1 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Titans are minus-5 in turnovers (8-13) so far this season.
— Rookie QB Levis is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
— Titans scored 3 TD’s on 26 drives in his three road starts.
— Seven of their last ten games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 8-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-3-3
— Dolphins won four of their last five games.
— Miami outscored last four opponents 51-15 in second half.
— Favorites are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
— Miami scored 31+ points in seven of nine wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— Last eight games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (10-16).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 47 TD’s on 125 drives.
— Last two games, Miami converted 18-29 third down plays.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-6 ATS coming off a win.
— over is 3-2 in their home games this year.
— Tagovailoa is 30-16 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
— Teams split their last eight meetings.
— Titans are 3-4 ATS in their last seven visits to Miami.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,428
- 17
- 38
Armadillo Sports
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Top six picks in the 2024 baseball draft:
1- Guardians
2- Royals
3- Rockies
4- A’s
5- White Sox
6- Angels
Quote of the Day
“There’s not enough basketballs on the planet for this team.”
PJ Tucker of the 9-10 Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, what South American country are the two outlaws in when the movie ends?
Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; Ed Orgeron was LSU’s coach that year.
Monday’s quiz
UNLV lost 36-14 to North Texas in the 2013 Heart of Texas Bowl, the last time the Rebels were in a bowl game.
********************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..
— USC QB Caleb Williams isn’t going to play in the Trojans’ Holiday Bowl game, coach Lincoln Riley announced Monday; Williams threw for 3,633 yards and 30 TD’s in USC’s 7-5 regular season, when they lost five of their last six games.
This raises an interesting question; the QB is the heart of the team right, the most important player? What does it say about a quarterback when he skips out on the team’s last game of the year to protect his own self-interest?
If you’re an NFL general manager, does this change how you evaluate Williams? I’m serious about this, if a QB jumps ship on his team, what does it say about him, if anything?
Guess I’m old fashioned, but he’d have some explaining to do before my team drafted Williams to be the QB of our future.
— Kansas State 72, Villanova 71, OT
K-State won its last four games, the last three in overtime.
Villanova lost its last three games; they’re 6-4.
In his head coaching career, K-State coach Tang is 9-0 in OT games.
— Southern Illinois 70, Oklahoma State 68
Salukis’ G Johnson scored 32 points, had five assists.
Oklahoma State is 1-5 vs teams ranked in top 200.
Salukis are 6-2, shooting 39.8% on the arc (#17).
— Delaware 87, Xavier 80
Xavier is 4-5, losing last three games, by 2-6-7 points.
Musketeers led by 10 points in first half.
Delaware came into the game on a 3-game losing skid.
— Illinois 98, Florida Atlantic 89
Illinois scored 1.31 ppp; they shot 75.7% inside the arc.
FAU is off to a 7-2 start, against schedule #38.
Right now, Illinois has the #2 eFG% defense in country.
— UConn 87, North Carolina 76
Huskies scored 1.23 ppg, shooting 68.6% inside arc.
UConn is grabbing 39.3% of its missed shots (#9 in country).
Carolina is 3-2 vs top 100 teams; their next game is 11 days from now.
— Grand Canyon 79, San Diego State 73
This is arguably the biggest win in Grand Canyon history.
Antelopes shot 64% inside the arc.
This is why top 50 teams don’t like to play road games before Christmas.
— Wisconsin 70, Michigan State 57
Wisconsin won its late six games, with three top 50 wins.
Spartans are off to a sputtering 4-4 start, 1-4 vs top 100 teams.
MSU is shooting 27.5% on arc (#325), 67.1% on foul line (#278).
— Word of the Day: Camaraderie- mutual trust and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together.
— Red Sox traded OF Alex Verdugo to the Bronx, in exchange for three minor league pitchers. Verdugo will be a free agent next winter; the last two years, his OPS was .732/.745, numbers that should go up with the short right field porch in the Bronx.
— White Sox signed P Erik Fedde to a 2-year, $15M deal, after Fedde was MVP of the Korean League last summer. He was 21-33, 5.41 in 88 major league starts in six years with Washington, going 6-13, 5.81 in 27 starts for the Nationals two years ago.
— There are already 1,184 kids in the college football transfer portal; not all of them are QB’s.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough is bolting to Louisville; next year will be his 7th season of college football- he’ll be 25 years old, and has previously played at Oregon, Texas Tech.
— Tim Boyle started at QB for the Jets the last two weeks; they cut him Tuesday, and added QB Brett Rypien, who has already been with the Rams and Seattle this season.
— I don’t give a rat’s ass who wins the Heisman Trophy; it might be the most over-hyped thing in all of sports. I’m not big for individual awards, but this one they start speculating on around Labor Day, which is ludicrous.
— Arizona State G Jose Perez has had an interesting college basketball career; he’s been all over the country, could write an excellent book.
2018-20- Gardner Webb- shot 37% on arc as a freshman, 26% as a sophomore.
2020-21- Marquette- He only played in 10 games; the coaching staff got fired after the year.
2021-22- Manhattan- scored 19.3 ppg for the Jaspers, who fired their coach after the year.
2022-23- Bolted to West Virginia but wasn’t granted eligibility. Not surprisingly, the coach at West Virginia got fired after the season, but it was for non-basketball reasons.
2023-24- Arizona State- is scoring 11.3 ppg this year; Sun Devils are 28-15 since the start of last season, so at least the coach’s job is (probably) safe.
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Top six picks in the 2024 baseball draft:
1- Guardians
2- Royals
3- Rockies
4- A’s
5- White Sox
6- Angels
Quote of the Day
“There’s not enough basketballs on the planet for this team.”
PJ Tucker of the 9-10 Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, what South American country are the two outlaws in when the movie ends?
Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; Ed Orgeron was LSU’s coach that year.
Monday’s quiz
UNLV lost 36-14 to North Texas in the 2013 Heart of Texas Bowl, the last time the Rebels were in a bowl game.
********************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..
— USC QB Caleb Williams isn’t going to play in the Trojans’ Holiday Bowl game, coach Lincoln Riley announced Monday; Williams threw for 3,633 yards and 30 TD’s in USC’s 7-5 regular season, when they lost five of their last six games.
This raises an interesting question; the QB is the heart of the team right, the most important player? What does it say about a quarterback when he skips out on the team’s last game of the year to protect his own self-interest?
If you’re an NFL general manager, does this change how you evaluate Williams? I’m serious about this, if a QB jumps ship on his team, what does it say about him, if anything?
Guess I’m old fashioned, but he’d have some explaining to do before my team drafted Williams to be the QB of our future.
— Kansas State 72, Villanova 71, OT
K-State won its last four games, the last three in overtime.
Villanova lost its last three games; they’re 6-4.
In his head coaching career, K-State coach Tang is 9-0 in OT games.
— Southern Illinois 70, Oklahoma State 68
Salukis’ G Johnson scored 32 points, had five assists.
Oklahoma State is 1-5 vs teams ranked in top 200.
Salukis are 6-2, shooting 39.8% on the arc (#17).
— Delaware 87, Xavier 80
Xavier is 4-5, losing last three games, by 2-6-7 points.
Musketeers led by 10 points in first half.
Delaware came into the game on a 3-game losing skid.
— Illinois 98, Florida Atlantic 89
Illinois scored 1.31 ppp; they shot 75.7% inside the arc.
FAU is off to a 7-2 start, against schedule #38.
Right now, Illinois has the #2 eFG% defense in country.
— UConn 87, North Carolina 76
Huskies scored 1.23 ppg, shooting 68.6% inside arc.
UConn is grabbing 39.3% of its missed shots (#9 in country).
Carolina is 3-2 vs top 100 teams; their next game is 11 days from now.
— Grand Canyon 79, San Diego State 73
This is arguably the biggest win in Grand Canyon history.
Antelopes shot 64% inside the arc.
This is why top 50 teams don’t like to play road games before Christmas.
— Wisconsin 70, Michigan State 57
Wisconsin won its late six games, with three top 50 wins.
Spartans are off to a sputtering 4-4 start, 1-4 vs top 100 teams.
MSU is shooting 27.5% on arc (#325), 67.1% on foul line (#278).
— Word of the Day: Camaraderie- mutual trust and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together.
— Red Sox traded OF Alex Verdugo to the Bronx, in exchange for three minor league pitchers. Verdugo will be a free agent next winter; the last two years, his OPS was .732/.745, numbers that should go up with the short right field porch in the Bronx.
— White Sox signed P Erik Fedde to a 2-year, $15M deal, after Fedde was MVP of the Korean League last summer. He was 21-33, 5.41 in 88 major league starts in six years with Washington, going 6-13, 5.81 in 27 starts for the Nationals two years ago.
— There are already 1,184 kids in the college football transfer portal; not all of them are QB’s.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough is bolting to Louisville; next year will be his 7th season of college football- he’ll be 25 years old, and has previously played at Oregon, Texas Tech.
— Tim Boyle started at QB for the Jets the last two weeks; they cut him Tuesday, and added QB Brett Rypien, who has already been with the Rams and Seattle this season.
— I don’t give a rat’s ass who wins the Heisman Trophy; it might be the most over-hyped thing in all of sports. I’m not big for individual awards, but this one they start speculating on around Labor Day, which is ludicrous.
— Arizona State G Jose Perez has had an interesting college basketball career; he’s been all over the country, could write an excellent book.
2018-20- Gardner Webb- shot 37% on arc as a freshman, 26% as a sophomore.
2020-21- Marquette- He only played in 10 games; the coaching staff got fired after the year.
2021-22- Manhattan- scored 19.3 ppg for the Jaspers, who fired their coach after the year.
2022-23- Bolted to West Virginia but wasn’t granted eligibility. Not surprisingly, the coach at West Virginia got fired after the season, but it was for non-basketball reasons.
2023-24- Arizona State- is scoring 11.3 ppg this year; Sun Devils are 28-15 since the start of last season, so at least the coach’s job is (probably) safe.
Thursday’s 6-pack:
Worst NFL teams against the spread:
2-10- New England
2-9-1- New Orleans
3-8-1- Carolina
4-8- Atlanta, Buffalo
4-7-1- Denver, Giants, Jets
5-7-1- Washington (Chargers 5-7)
Quote of the Day
“The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
Theodore Roosevelt
Thursday’s quiz
Where did Matthew Stafford play his college football?
Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.
Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; Ed Orgeron was LSU’s coach that year.
*******************************************
Which reminds me of a night………
— New Year’s Eve, 1974, I was 15, the A’s had won the last three World Series, which made me pretty freakin’ happy.
Way back then, before the Internet, we had a station on our cable TV setup that basically was the Internet. During the day, it was a stock market ticker, then at 7pm on weeknights and all the time on weekends, it was a sports ticker, a really good one. Bright blue background with white typing on it; spent lot of time watching channel 3. Lot of time.
For me, channel 3 was must-watch TV; had it on all the time, but on New Year’s Eve 1974, it gave me some very bad news.
I had gone bowling in the neighborhood with friends and came home around 10:00, flipped on the TV, clicked on channel 3 and there it was:
Catfish Hunter signs as a free agent with New York. Catfish was my favorite ballplayer, a great pitcher, who I adopted as my favorite player long before he was great, because they spelled his name wrong on his rookie baseball card.
Not good, the end of the dynasty for my favorite team. My favorite player going to play for a team that was on TV all the time where I lived. Muy mal (very bad).
Tonight in San Diego, there are kids who are sad because the Padres are going down the drain- Josh Hader will be the next one to go, and if you thought the Padres underachieved last year, wait til next summer.
— Arizona Diamondbacks signed P Eduardo Rodriguez to a 4-year, $80M deal; Rodriguez was 13-9, 3.30 in 152 IP last year. He vetoed a trade to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, so he’ll get a warm welcome when the Diamondbacks visit Chavez Ravine.
— Baltimore Orioles signed closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13M deal.
— Houston Astros signed C Victor Caratini to a 2-year, $12M deal, which means that Martin Maldonado’s 5-year run as Houston’s catcher is likely over.
— In horse racing news, Belmont Stakes will be held in Saratoga next year, because they’re renovating Belmont Park. Chances are the 2025 Belmont will also be in Saratoga, which is 25 miles north of Armadillo World HQ, a 4-5 hour drive from Belmont Park.
— Word of the Day: Infatuation- an intense but short-lived passion or admiration for someone or something.
— Dallas Cowboys’ coach Mike McCarthy was diagnosed with an acute case of appendicitis, had an operation Wednesday, but expects to coach against the Eagles Sunday.
I’ll say this: 30 years ago, I had an emergency appendectomy; they told me to avoid physical contact after I went home, because it took a while for everything to heal, so I’m guessing that McCarthy will be coaching from the press box, at least for this week.
Any big collision on the sideline could be really, really bad for McCarthy.
— Zach Wilson is starting at QB for the Jets this weekend, when they host Houston. Jets added QB Brett Rypien from Seattle earlier this week, but Wilson will get the start.
— Memphis 85, VCU 80 OT
VCU led by 10 in the first half; they’ve lost four of their last five games.
Memphis outscored the Rams 23-15 on the foul line.
— Marquette 86, Texas 65
Marquette made 14-30 on the arc; they led 42-28 at halftime.
Marquette is 7-2, having played the #7 schedule in the country.
First true road game for Texas, which is 6-2, against schedule #264.
— Minnesota 76, Nebraska 65
Gophers trailed 39-24 at halftime.
— Clemson 72, South Carolina 67
Both teams came into the game with 7-0 records.
Gamecocks led by 11 with 14:20 left in the game.
— San Francisco 73, Vanderbilt 60- First time this year teams from WCC-SEC met; good road win for the Dons, who made 13-29 on the arc, and never trailed.
— Drake 75, Saint Louis 69
Billikens led by 19 early in second half.
Drake outscored Saint Louis 18-6 over the final 4:19.
— Fort Wayne 70, Southern Indiana 57- Kid on Fort Wayne was playing and his sneaker fell off; he had the shoe in his hand while he guarded the guy with the ball, and when the kid took a jumper, he blocked the shot with the shoe in his right hand.
— Wednesday’s UNLV at Dayton basketball game was canceled after an on-campus shooting at UNLV, where three people were murdered and others were wounded.
— Gambling is difficult; Wednesday night there were 11 college basketball teams that won, who at one time trailed that game by 10+ points.
Worst NFL teams against the spread:
2-10- New England
2-9-1- New Orleans
3-8-1- Carolina
4-8- Atlanta, Buffalo
4-7-1- Denver, Giants, Jets
5-7-1- Washington (Chargers 5-7)
Quote of the Day
“The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
Theodore Roosevelt
Thursday’s quiz
Where did Matthew Stafford play his college football?
Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.
Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; Ed Orgeron was LSU’s coach that year.
*******************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..
— Juan Soto got traded to the Bronx; he and Trent Grisham go to New York for P Michael King and four stiffs. It is a cruddy night for Padre fans, for sure.Which reminds me of a night………
— New Year’s Eve, 1974, I was 15, the A’s had won the last three World Series, which made me pretty freakin’ happy.
Way back then, before the Internet, we had a station on our cable TV setup that basically was the Internet. During the day, it was a stock market ticker, then at 7pm on weeknights and all the time on weekends, it was a sports ticker, a really good one. Bright blue background with white typing on it; spent lot of time watching channel 3. Lot of time.
For me, channel 3 was must-watch TV; had it on all the time, but on New Year’s Eve 1974, it gave me some very bad news.
I had gone bowling in the neighborhood with friends and came home around 10:00, flipped on the TV, clicked on channel 3 and there it was:
Catfish Hunter signs as a free agent with New York. Catfish was my favorite ballplayer, a great pitcher, who I adopted as my favorite player long before he was great, because they spelled his name wrong on his rookie baseball card.
Not good, the end of the dynasty for my favorite team. My favorite player going to play for a team that was on TV all the time where I lived. Muy mal (very bad).
Tonight in San Diego, there are kids who are sad because the Padres are going down the drain- Josh Hader will be the next one to go, and if you thought the Padres underachieved last year, wait til next summer.
— Arizona Diamondbacks signed P Eduardo Rodriguez to a 4-year, $80M deal; Rodriguez was 13-9, 3.30 in 152 IP last year. He vetoed a trade to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, so he’ll get a warm welcome when the Diamondbacks visit Chavez Ravine.
— Baltimore Orioles signed closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13M deal.
— Houston Astros signed C Victor Caratini to a 2-year, $12M deal, which means that Martin Maldonado’s 5-year run as Houston’s catcher is likely over.
— In horse racing news, Belmont Stakes will be held in Saratoga next year, because they’re renovating Belmont Park. Chances are the 2025 Belmont will also be in Saratoga, which is 25 miles north of Armadillo World HQ, a 4-5 hour drive from Belmont Park.
— Word of the Day: Infatuation- an intense but short-lived passion or admiration for someone or something.
— Dallas Cowboys’ coach Mike McCarthy was diagnosed with an acute case of appendicitis, had an operation Wednesday, but expects to coach against the Eagles Sunday.
I’ll say this: 30 years ago, I had an emergency appendectomy; they told me to avoid physical contact after I went home, because it took a while for everything to heal, so I’m guessing that McCarthy will be coaching from the press box, at least for this week.
Any big collision on the sideline could be really, really bad for McCarthy.
— Zach Wilson is starting at QB for the Jets this weekend, when they host Houston. Jets added QB Brett Rypien from Seattle earlier this week, but Wilson will get the start.
— Memphis 85, VCU 80 OT
VCU led by 10 in the first half; they’ve lost four of their last five games.
Memphis outscored the Rams 23-15 on the foul line.
— Marquette 86, Texas 65
Marquette made 14-30 on the arc; they led 42-28 at halftime.
Marquette is 7-2, having played the #7 schedule in the country.
First true road game for Texas, which is 6-2, against schedule #264.
— Minnesota 76, Nebraska 65
Gophers trailed 39-24 at halftime.
— Clemson 72, South Carolina 67
Both teams came into the game with 7-0 records.
Gamecocks led by 11 with 14:20 left in the game.
— San Francisco 73, Vanderbilt 60- First time this year teams from WCC-SEC met; good road win for the Dons, who made 13-29 on the arc, and never trailed.
— Drake 75, Saint Louis 69
Billikens led by 19 early in second half.
Drake outscored Saint Louis 18-6 over the final 4:19.
— Fort Wayne 70, Southern Indiana 57- Kid on Fort Wayne was playing and his sneaker fell off; he had the shoe in his hand while he guarded the guy with the ball, and when the kid took a jumper, he blocked the shot with the shoe in his right hand.
— Wednesday’s UNLV at Dayton basketball game was canceled after an on-campus shooting at UNLV, where three people were murdered and others were wounded.
— Gambling is difficult; Wednesday night there were 11 college basketball teams that won, who at one time trailed that game by 10+ points.
DECEMBER'S NFL BEST BETS !
12/07/2023....................................0 - 2 -0 ..............................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/04/2023....................................0 - 2 - 0...............................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
TOTALS........................................7 - 11 - 0...............................38.88%.......................- 25.50
12/07/2023....................................0 - 2 -0 ..............................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/04/2023....................................0 - 2 - 0...............................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
TOTALS........................................7 - 11 - 0...............................38.88%.......................- 25.50
Friday’s 6-pack:
— Patriots 21, Steelers 18- Pittsburgh loses consecutive games to 2-10 teams.
— Game had total of 30; it went over the total in second quarter.
— Lakers 133, Pelicans 89- Lakers outscored NO 43-17 in 3rd quarter.
— Pacers 128, Bucks 119- Indiana plays the Lakers Saturday in IST final.
— Iowa State 90, Iowa 65- Cyclones led 47-29 at halftime.
— Duke hired Penn State DC Manny Diaz as its new football coach.
Quote of the Day
“The problem is tampering. And we could fix it easily if they’d let football people fix it. But they usually don’t listen to us.”
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, talking about the transfer portal
Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; what well-known character actor plays the manager of the Tigers?
Thursday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.
Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.
**************************************
Hawks (9-11):
— lost four of their last five games (0-5 ATS).
— 0-7 ATS as a home favorite
— over 7-2 at home
Celtics (15-5):
— won 10 of last 13 games SU (2-7 ATS last nine)
— 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 10-4 last 14 games.
Nets (11-9):
— won five of their last six games.
— 9-3 ATS at home, 6-2 on road.
— over 3-1 last four home games.
Hornets (6-13):
— lost four of their last five games.
— 2-8 ATS at home.
— over 7-2 on the road
Bulls (6-14)
— won/covered their last three games.
— 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 5-1 last six games.
Cavaliers (12-9):
— won four of their last five games
— 5-8 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.
Mavericks (12-8):
— 3-5 SU in their last 8 games.
— 4-6 ATS as home favorites, 3-1 as road favorites.
— over 6-2 last eight home games.
Nuggets (14-8):
— 0-7 ATS last seven games as road favorites.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Pistons (2-19):
— lost their last 16 games (6-10 ATS).
— 4-6 ATS as a home underdog, 5-5 as a road dog.
— over 7-1 last eight road games
Warriors (10-11):
— 4-9 in last 13 games SU
— 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
— 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Rockets (9-9):
— 8-1 ATS last nine home games.
— 12-3 ATS last 15 games overall.
— under 9-3 last dozen games.
Pacers (11-8):
— over 16-3
— 4-5 ATS as a home favorite, 3-0 as a home dog.
— 3-0 ATS first night of back/back
Clippers (10-10):
— 7-3 last ten games SU.
— 3-6 ATS on the road.
— under 7-0 last seven home games.
Lakers (13-9):
— won/covered five of last six games.
— 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 8-3 at home.
Grizzlies (6-14):
— won three of last four games (4-0 ATS)
— 6-2 ATS last eight road games.
— under 4-0 last four home games
Heat (12-9):
— lost four of last six games SU.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 4-0 last four home games.
Bucks (15-6):
— won five of last six games (3-1 ATS last four)
— 5-1 ATS last six road games.
— over 7-3 road games.
Timberwolves (16-4)
— won 15 of last 17 games (5-6 ATS last 11)
— 8-3 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five home games.
Pelicans (12-10):
— won/covered three of last four games
— 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Knicks (12-8):
— won three of last four games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a favorite, 5-4-1 as an underdog
— over 6-2 last eight games
Thunder (13-7):
— 2-3 SU their last five games.
— 8-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-2 as an underdog.
— over 6-3 last nine games
Magic (14-7):
— won last seven home games (6-1 ATS).
— 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 8-1 last nine games.
76ers (13-7):
— 3-4 last six games SU.
— 10-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-3 as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven games.
Suns (12-9):
— lost three of last four games (0-4 ATS)
— 6-9 ATS as a favorite.
— over 9-1 home games
Trailblazers (6-14):
— covered five of their last six games,
— 2-5 ATS as a home underdog, 8-5 as a road dog.
— under 5-1 last six games
Kings (11-8):
— 3-4 SU last seven games (2-5 ATS)
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven home games
Spurs (3-17):
— lost their last 15 games (4-2 ATS last six)
— 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 8-2 at home
Raptors (9-12):
— lost four of last five games SU
— 4-6 ATS after a win, 6-4 after a loss.
— over 4-1 last five home games.
Jazz (7-14):
— 2-9 ATS on the road.
— 8-2 ATS at home
— over 7-3 at home
Wizards (3-17):
— 5-2 ATS last seven games.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 3-0 last three games.
NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.
So far this season, it has happened 17 times, so 34 games; underdogs are 22-12 ATS in those games, over 19-15 (9-8 first night, 10-7 second night)
— Patriots 21, Steelers 18- Pittsburgh loses consecutive games to 2-10 teams.
— Game had total of 30; it went over the total in second quarter.
— Lakers 133, Pelicans 89- Lakers outscored NO 43-17 in 3rd quarter.
— Pacers 128, Bucks 119- Indiana plays the Lakers Saturday in IST final.
— Iowa State 90, Iowa 65- Cyclones led 47-29 at halftime.
— Duke hired Penn State DC Manny Diaz as its new football coach.
Quote of the Day
“The problem is tampering. And we could fix it easily if they’d let football people fix it. But they usually don’t listen to us.”
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, talking about the transfer portal
Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; what well-known character actor plays the manager of the Tigers?
Thursday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.
Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.
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Friday’s Den: NBA trends to think about…….
NBA trends (thru Wednesday)Hawks (9-11):
— lost four of their last five games (0-5 ATS).
— 0-7 ATS as a home favorite
— over 7-2 at home
Celtics (15-5):
— won 10 of last 13 games SU (2-7 ATS last nine)
— 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 10-4 last 14 games.
Nets (11-9):
— won five of their last six games.
— 9-3 ATS at home, 6-2 on road.
— over 3-1 last four home games.
Hornets (6-13):
— lost four of their last five games.
— 2-8 ATS at home.
— over 7-2 on the road
Bulls (6-14)
— won/covered their last three games.
— 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 5-1 last six games.
Cavaliers (12-9):
— won four of their last five games
— 5-8 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.
Mavericks (12-8):
— 3-5 SU in their last 8 games.
— 4-6 ATS as home favorites, 3-1 as road favorites.
— over 6-2 last eight home games.
Nuggets (14-8):
— 0-7 ATS last seven games as road favorites.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Pistons (2-19):
— lost their last 16 games (6-10 ATS).
— 4-6 ATS as a home underdog, 5-5 as a road dog.
— over 7-1 last eight road games
Warriors (10-11):
— 4-9 in last 13 games SU
— 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
— 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Rockets (9-9):
— 8-1 ATS last nine home games.
— 12-3 ATS last 15 games overall.
— under 9-3 last dozen games.
Pacers (11-8):
— over 16-3
— 4-5 ATS as a home favorite, 3-0 as a home dog.
— 3-0 ATS first night of back/back
Clippers (10-10):
— 7-3 last ten games SU.
— 3-6 ATS on the road.
— under 7-0 last seven home games.
Lakers (13-9):
— won/covered five of last six games.
— 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 8-3 at home.
Grizzlies (6-14):
— won three of last four games (4-0 ATS)
— 6-2 ATS last eight road games.
— under 4-0 last four home games
Heat (12-9):
— lost four of last six games SU.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 4-0 last four home games.
Bucks (15-6):
— won five of last six games (3-1 ATS last four)
— 5-1 ATS last six road games.
— over 7-3 road games.
Timberwolves (16-4)
— won 15 of last 17 games (5-6 ATS last 11)
— 8-3 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five home games.
Pelicans (12-10):
— won/covered three of last four games
— 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Knicks (12-8):
— won three of last four games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a favorite, 5-4-1 as an underdog
— over 6-2 last eight games
Thunder (13-7):
— 2-3 SU their last five games.
— 8-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-2 as an underdog.
— over 6-3 last nine games
Magic (14-7):
— won last seven home games (6-1 ATS).
— 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 8-1 last nine games.
76ers (13-7):
— 3-4 last six games SU.
— 10-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-3 as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven games.
Suns (12-9):
— lost three of last four games (0-4 ATS)
— 6-9 ATS as a favorite.
— over 9-1 home games
Trailblazers (6-14):
— covered five of their last six games,
— 2-5 ATS as a home underdog, 8-5 as a road dog.
— under 5-1 last six games
Kings (11-8):
— 3-4 SU last seven games (2-5 ATS)
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven home games
Spurs (3-17):
— lost their last 15 games (4-2 ATS last six)
— 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 8-2 at home
Raptors (9-12):
— lost four of last five games SU
— 4-6 ATS after a win, 6-4 after a loss.
— over 4-1 last five home games.
Jazz (7-14):
— 2-9 ATS on the road.
— 8-2 ATS at home
— over 7-3 at home
Wizards (3-17):
— 5-2 ATS last seven games.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 3-0 last three games.
NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.
So far this season, it has happened 17 times, so 34 games; underdogs are 22-12 ATS in those games, over 19-15 (9-8 first night, 10-7 second night)
