NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !
- Thread starter Cnotes53
- Start date
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO at GB | 01:00 PM | NO -1.0 U 41.5 | +500 +500 |
| TEN at CLE | 01:00 PM | CLE -3.5 U 38.0 | +500 +500 |
| ATL at DET | 01:00 PM | DET -3.0 U 47.0 | +500 +500 |
| IND at BAL | 01:00 PM | BAL -7.5 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| LAC at MIN | 01:00 PM | LAC +1.0 O 53.5 | +500 +500 |
| BUF at WAS | 01:00 PM | WAS +5.5 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| HOU at JAC | 01:00 PM | HOU +7.5 O 43.5 | +500 +500 |
| NE at NYJ | 01:00 PM | NE -2.5 O 35.0 | +500 +500 |
| DEN at MIA | 01:00 PM | DEN +6.0 O 47.5 | +500 +500 |
| CAR at SEA | 04:05 PM | SEA -4.5 U 43.0 | +500 +500 |
| CHI at KC | 04:25 PM | KC -13.0 U 48.5 | +500 +500 |
| DAL at ARI | 04:25 PM | DAL -13.0 U 43.5 | +500 +500 |
| PIT at LV | 08:20 PM | LV -2.5 O 43.5 | +500 +500 |
Pending Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Status | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2023 | NFL | Buffalo Washington | - - | 01:00 PM | Under 44.0 |
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2023 | NCAAF | Boise State San Diego State | 34 31 | SDSU +6.5 | Win |
| Sep 20, 2023 | MLB | San Francisco Arizona | 1 7 | ARI +101 | Win |
| Sep 19, 2023 | WNBA | Atlanta Dallas | 74 101 | Over 170.5 | Win |
| Sep 15, 2023 | NCAAF | Army Texas-San Antonio | 37 29 | Over 42.0 | Win |
| Sep 14, 2023 | NFL | Minnesota Philadelphia | 28 34 | Under 50.0 | Loss |
| Sep 13, 2023 | WNBA | Minnesota Connecticut | 60 90 | CON -9.0 | Win |
| Sep 9, 2023 | NCAAF | New Mexico State Liberty | 17 33 | LIB -9.5 | Win |
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2023 | NFL | Buffalo Washington | 37 3 | Under 44.0 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2023 | NCAAF | Boise State San Diego State | 34 31 | SDSU +6.5 | Win |
| Sep 20, 2023 | MLB | San Francisco Arizona | 1 7 | ARI +101 | Win |
| Sep 19, 2023 | WNBA | Atlanta Dallas | 74 101 | Over 170.5 | Win |
| Sep 15, 2023 | NCAAF | Army Texas-San Antonio | 37 29 | Over 42.0 | Win |
SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS!
09/23/2023..............................9 - 8..............................52.94%.........................+ 1.00
09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
TOTALS...................................33 - 36............................47.82%............................- 33.00
09/23/2023..............................9 - 8..............................52.94%.........................+ 1.00
09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
TOTALS...................................33 - 36............................47.82%............................- 33.00
- Sep 10, 2018
- 16,865
- 15
- 38
Armadillo Sports
Chargers 28, Vikings 24
— WR Allen caught 18 balls for 215 yards, also THREW a 49-yard TD pass.
— Vikings had ball on Chargers’ 6-yard line in last 2:00, didn’t score.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Chargers scored 34-24-28 points in their first three games.
— Vikings lost first three games, by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Cousins was 32-50/367 passing, with three TD’s.
— Jefferson caught seven passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Colts 22, Ravens 19 OT
— Kicker Matt Gay kicked FG’s of 31-54-53-53-53 yards.
— His 4th 50+-yard FG of the day ended the game in OT.
— Colts are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Moss carried ball 30 times for 122 yards.
— Ravens lost two fumbles on their first four drives.
— Jackson ran 14 times for 101 yards and Ravens’ only two TDs.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 34 drives.
— Under is 9-1 in their last ten home games.
Packers 18, Saints 17
— Saints led this game 17-0 at halftime.
— QB Carr hurt his shoulder; backup Winston was 10-16/101 passing.
— Saints ran punt back 76 yards for their second TD.
— Saints’ first three games (2-1) were decided by total of five points.
— Packers in first half: 27 plays, 116 yards, no points.
— Packers in second half: 41 plays, 228 yards, 18 points.
— Saints in second half: 30 plays, 121 yards, no points.
— Saints missed a 46-yard FG with 1:05 left.
Lions 20, Falcons 6
— Detroit outgained the Falcons, 358-183.
— Atlanta ran ball 20 times for only 44 yards.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 5-8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.
— Goff threw a 45-yard TD pass for Detroit’s first TD.
— Detroit held the Falcons to 3.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 13-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 25-11-1 ATS, 5-2 as home favorite.
Browns 27, Titans 3
— Tennessee ran 45 plays for only 94 yards.
— Derrick Henry carried ball 11 times for 20 yards.
— Tennessee has lost nine of its last ten games.
— Under is 8-2 in Titans’ last ten road games.
— Cleveland had 23 first downs, Titans had six.
— Watson was 27-33/289 passing, with two TD’s.
— Opponents have converted only 8-41 third down plays.
— First three games, Cleveland outgained opponents 1,099-501.
Texans 37, Jaguars 17
— Houston led this game 17-0 at halftime.
— Leading 17-10, Texans ran kickoff back 85 yards for a TD.
— Houston has now won 10 of last 11 series games (8-3 ATS)
— Last 2+ years. Houston is 6-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Jaguars in first half: 33 plays, 158 yards, two missed FG’s, no points.
— Texans were 9-15 on third down, Jaguars were 5-13.
— Jacksonville is only 11-37 on third down in three games.
— Jaguars are 12-24-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
Patriots 15, Jets 10
— New England outgained the Jets, 358-171.
— Patriots were 8-19 on third down, Jets 2-14.
— Patriots’ only TD was a 58-yard pass to Pharaoh Brown.
— New England is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Last 5+ years, Jets are 5-12 ATS in AFC East home games.
— First three games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, Jets are 3-24 on third down.
— Wilson is 8-16 as an NFL starter.
Dolphins 70, Broncos 20
— Miami won its first three games, scoring 36-24-70 points.
— Dolphins scored TD’s on eight of their first nine drives.
— Miami averaged 13.4 yards per pass attempt.
— since 2020, Dolphins are 11-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Miami had TD plays of 54-79-67-69 yards.
— Dolphins gained 726 yards on 71 plays. 726 yards!!!!
— Miami ran ball for 350 yards, threw for 376 more.
— Russell Wilson is 4-14 as the Broncos’ QB.
Bills 37, Commanders 3
— Bills in first half: 39 plays, 212 yards, one TD, three FG’s.
— Buffalo led 16-0 at halftime.
— Bills are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games on natural grass.
— Bills converted 21-41 third down plays in two games.
— Commanders were 1-9 on third down, Buffalo was 9-15.
— Washington turned ball over 4 times on 10 drives.
— Under is 12-4 in Washington’s last 16 games.
— Washington kicked 51-yard FG in last 2:00 to avert shutout.
Seahawks 37, Panthers 27
— Carolina ran ball only 14 times, for 44 yards.
— Panthers were 10-19 on 3rd down, Seattle 3-13.
— In three games, 0-3 Carolina has been outscored, 56-31 in 2nd half.
— Backup QB Dalton was 34-58/361 passing, with two TD’s.
— Seahawks in first half: 41 plays, 208 yards, four FGs (12 points)
— Seahawks in 2nd half: 31 plays, 213 yards, 3 TDs and a FG (25 points)
— Seattle gave up 984 passing yards in its first three games
— Seahawks won eight of last ten series games.
Chiefs (1-1), Bears (0-2) @
— Chiefs led this game 34-0 at halftime; TV took it off the air at that point.
— Bears are 9-28 SU/12-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago averaged 3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Fields is 5-23 SU as an NFL starter- they have a problem with him.
— Chiefs in first half: 46 plays, 318 yards, four TD’s, two FG’s.
— Kelce caught seven passes for 69 yards and a TD.
— KC had 12 penalties for 94 yards LW, only 3-15 in this game.
— Chiefs are 10-2 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16
— Arizona is 1-2, but led all three games at halftime.
— Cardinals in first half: 35 plays, 288 yards, 2 TD’s, 3 FG’s.
— Conner ran ball 14 times for 98 yards and a TD.
— Prater kicked a 62-yard FG with 0:04 left in first half.
— Dallas had five drives of 56+ yards, but scored only one TD.
— Cowboys were in red zone four times in second half, scored 6 points.
— Cardinals ran ball for 222 yards, were 5-10 on 3rd down.
— Dallas is 28-46 on third down in its three games.
Steelers 23, Raiders 18
— Steelers picked off three passes, were +3 in turnovers.
— Pickett averaged 7.9 yards/pass attempt.
— Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— Pitt is 27-14-1 ATS in last 42 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— First three games, Raiders scored 17-10-18 points.
— Raiders are 11-14 ATS in last 25 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Las Vegas is 10-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, Raiders are 10-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers 28, Vikings 24
— WR Allen caught 18 balls for 215 yards, also THREW a 49-yard TD pass.
— Vikings had ball on Chargers’ 6-yard line in last 2:00, didn’t score.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Chargers scored 34-24-28 points in their first three games.
— Vikings lost first three games, by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Cousins was 32-50/367 passing, with three TD’s.
— Jefferson caught seven passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Colts 22, Ravens 19 OT
— Kicker Matt Gay kicked FG’s of 31-54-53-53-53 yards.
— His 4th 50+-yard FG of the day ended the game in OT.
— Colts are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Moss carried ball 30 times for 122 yards.
— Ravens lost two fumbles on their first four drives.
— Jackson ran 14 times for 101 yards and Ravens’ only two TDs.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 34 drives.
— Under is 9-1 in their last ten home games.
Packers 18, Saints 17
— Saints led this game 17-0 at halftime.
— QB Carr hurt his shoulder; backup Winston was 10-16/101 passing.
— Saints ran punt back 76 yards for their second TD.
— Saints’ first three games (2-1) were decided by total of five points.
— Packers in first half: 27 plays, 116 yards, no points.
— Packers in second half: 41 plays, 228 yards, 18 points.
— Saints in second half: 30 plays, 121 yards, no points.
— Saints missed a 46-yard FG with 1:05 left.
Lions 20, Falcons 6
— Detroit outgained the Falcons, 358-183.
— Atlanta ran ball 20 times for only 44 yards.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 5-8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.
— Goff threw a 45-yard TD pass for Detroit’s first TD.
— Detroit held the Falcons to 3.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 13-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 25-11-1 ATS, 5-2 as home favorite.
Browns 27, Titans 3
— Tennessee ran 45 plays for only 94 yards.
— Derrick Henry carried ball 11 times for 20 yards.
— Tennessee has lost nine of its last ten games.
— Under is 8-2 in Titans’ last ten road games.
— Cleveland had 23 first downs, Titans had six.
— Watson was 27-33/289 passing, with two TD’s.
— Opponents have converted only 8-41 third down plays.
— First three games, Cleveland outgained opponents 1,099-501.
Texans 37, Jaguars 17
— Houston led this game 17-0 at halftime.
— Leading 17-10, Texans ran kickoff back 85 yards for a TD.
— Houston has now won 10 of last 11 series games (8-3 ATS)
— Last 2+ years. Houston is 6-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Jaguars in first half: 33 plays, 158 yards, two missed FG’s, no points.
— Texans were 9-15 on third down, Jaguars were 5-13.
— Jacksonville is only 11-37 on third down in three games.
— Jaguars are 12-24-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
Patriots 15, Jets 10
— New England outgained the Jets, 358-171.
— Patriots were 8-19 on third down, Jets 2-14.
— Patriots’ only TD was a 58-yard pass to Pharaoh Brown.
— New England is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Last 5+ years, Jets are 5-12 ATS in AFC East home games.
— First three games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, Jets are 3-24 on third down.
— Wilson is 8-16 as an NFL starter.
Dolphins 70, Broncos 20
— Miami won its first three games, scoring 36-24-70 points.
— Dolphins scored TD’s on eight of their first nine drives.
— Miami averaged 13.4 yards per pass attempt.
— since 2020, Dolphins are 11-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Miami had TD plays of 54-79-67-69 yards.
— Dolphins gained 726 yards on 71 plays. 726 yards!!!!
— Miami ran ball for 350 yards, threw for 376 more.
— Russell Wilson is 4-14 as the Broncos’ QB.
Bills 37, Commanders 3
— Bills in first half: 39 plays, 212 yards, one TD, three FG’s.
— Buffalo led 16-0 at halftime.
— Bills are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games on natural grass.
— Bills converted 21-41 third down plays in two games.
— Commanders were 1-9 on third down, Buffalo was 9-15.
— Washington turned ball over 4 times on 10 drives.
— Under is 12-4 in Washington’s last 16 games.
— Washington kicked 51-yard FG in last 2:00 to avert shutout.
Seahawks 37, Panthers 27
— Carolina ran ball only 14 times, for 44 yards.
— Panthers were 10-19 on 3rd down, Seattle 3-13.
— In three games, 0-3 Carolina has been outscored, 56-31 in 2nd half.
— Backup QB Dalton was 34-58/361 passing, with two TD’s.
— Seahawks in first half: 41 plays, 208 yards, four FGs (12 points)
— Seahawks in 2nd half: 31 plays, 213 yards, 3 TDs and a FG (25 points)
— Seattle gave up 984 passing yards in its first three games
— Seahawks won eight of last ten series games.
Chiefs (1-1), Bears (0-2) @
— Chiefs led this game 34-0 at halftime; TV took it off the air at that point.
— Bears are 9-28 SU/12-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago averaged 3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Fields is 5-23 SU as an NFL starter- they have a problem with him.
— Chiefs in first half: 46 plays, 318 yards, four TD’s, two FG’s.
— Kelce caught seven passes for 69 yards and a TD.
— KC had 12 penalties for 94 yards LW, only 3-15 in this game.
— Chiefs are 10-2 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16
— Arizona is 1-2, but led all three games at halftime.
— Cardinals in first half: 35 plays, 288 yards, 2 TD’s, 3 FG’s.
— Conner ran ball 14 times for 98 yards and a TD.
— Prater kicked a 62-yard FG with 0:04 left in first half.
— Dallas had five drives of 56+ yards, but scored only one TD.
— Cowboys were in red zone four times in second half, scored 6 points.
— Cardinals ran ball for 222 yards, were 5-10 on 3rd down.
— Dallas is 28-46 on third down in its three games.
Steelers 23, Raiders 18
— Steelers picked off three passes, were +3 in turnovers.
— Pickett averaged 7.9 yards/pass attempt.
— Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— Pitt is 27-14-1 ATS in last 42 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— First three games, Raiders scored 17-10-18 points.
— Raiders are 11-14 ATS in last 25 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Las Vegas is 10-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, Raiders are 10-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Pending Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Status | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2023 | NFL | Philadelphia Tampa Bay | - - | 07:15 PM | TB +5.5 |
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2023 | NFL | Buffalo Washington | 37 3 | Under 44.0 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2023 | NCAAF | Boise State San Diego State | 34 31 | SDSU +6.5 | Win |
| Sep 20, 2023 | MLB | San Francisco Arizona | 1 7 | ARI +101 | Win |
| Sep 19, 2023 | WNBA | Atlanta Dallas | 74 101 | Over 170.5 | Win |
| Sep 15, 2023 | NCAAF | Army Texas-San Antonio | 37 29 | Over 42.0 | Win |
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at TB | 07:15 PM | TB +5.5 O 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| LAR at CIN | 08:15 PM | CIN -3.0 U 45.5 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2023 | NFL | Philadelphia Tampa Bay | 25 11 | TB +5.5 | Loss |
| Sep 24, 2023 | NFL | Buffalo Washington | 37 3 | Under 44.0 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2023 | NCAAF | Boise State San Diego State | 34 31 | SDSU +6.5 | Win |
| Sep 20, 2023 | MLB | San Francisco Arizona | 1 7 | ARI +101 | Win |
| Sep 19, 2023 | WNBA | Atlanta Dallas | 74 101 | Over 170.5 | Win |
| Sep 15, 2023 | NCAAF | Army Texas-San Antonio | 37 29 | Over 42.0 | Win |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25/2023 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 09/24/2023 | 14-12-0 | 53.85% | +400 | Detail |
| 09/21/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 09/18/2023 | 0-3-1 | 12.50% | -1650 | Detail |
| 09/17/2023 | 9-17-0 | 34.62% | -4850 | Detail |
| 09/14/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 09/11/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 09/10/2023 | 14-14-0 | 50.00% | -700 | Detail |
| 09/07/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS!
09/25/2023..............................1 - 2 - 1........................37.50%...........................- 6.00
09/24/2023.............................9 - 8 ..............................52.94%..........................- 4.50
09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
TOTALS................................34 - 38 - 2...........................47.22%............................- 40.00
09/25/2023..............................1 - 2 - 1........................37.50%...........................- 6.00
09/24/2023.............................9 - 8 ..............................52.94%..........................- 4.50
09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
TOTALS................................34 - 38 - 2...........................47.22%............................- 40.00
Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Since 1966, the six QB’s the Chicago Bears drafted in the first round
— Jim McMahon
— Jim Harbaugh
— Cade McNown
— Rex Grossman
— Mitch Trubisky
— Justin Fields
Quote of the Day
“I didn’t take anything positive out of it. It was awful. You sit down? You sit down on a play? You go right down? What happened? I thought you’re trying to win and make plays. You quit on a play? What is going on? It’s disgusting. I wouldn’t keep him. I’ve seen enough of Zach Wilson.”
Joe Namath, talking about Jets’ QB Zach Wilson
Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; who did they beat in that game?
Monday’s quiz
Sean Payton was a replacement player for the Chicago Bears during the 1987 NFL players’ strike.
Sunday’s quiz
San Diego hosts the Holiday Bowl every December.
*******************************************
— Eagles outgained Tampa Bay, 472-174.
— Philadelphia converted 10-16 third down plays.
— Philly ran the football 40 times for 201 yards.
— Eagles won their first three games, scoring 25-34-25 points.
— Buccaneers’ first 8 drives: 36 plays, 104 yards, a FG and a safety.
— Eagles had four drives in 2nd half: 75-46-55-68 yards.
— Buccaneers are 16-18-3 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Tampa Bay hasn’t been 3-0 since 2005.
Bengals 19, Rams 16
— Ja’Marr Chase caught 12 passes for 141 yards.
— QB Burrow is playing with injured calf; he was 26-49/259 passing.
— Bengals are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 7-3-2 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
— Rams have scored one TD on their last 19 drives.
— LA converted only one of 11 third down plays.
— Rams are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
Rams scored TD with 1:03 left to push the spread, second week in a row they scored in the last 2:00 to push the spread.
— So far this season, NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside their division.
NFC North teams are 2-7 ATS outside their division.
NFC East teams are 4-5 ATS outside their division.
AFC West teams are 3-7 ATS outside their division.
League-wide, home favorites are 2-6 ATS in divisional games.
League-wide, home underdogs are 3-4 ATS in divisional games.
— College football conference trends:
Nationwide, home favorites in conference games are 15-9 ATS.
Nationwide, home underdogs in conference games are 14-12 ATS.
AAC teams are 14-23 ATS outside the conference.
ACC non-conference favorites are 11-7 ATS.
Big X non-conference road favorites are 2-6 ATS.
Big 14 teams are 13-19 ATS outside the conference.
Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 13-7 ATS.
Mountain West non-conference road underdogs are 12-4 ATS.
SEC teams are 2-7 ATS in non-conference games away from home.
Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 8-5 ATS.
— Word of the Day: Patience— the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset.
Remember, you can’t be a doctor without patience.
— Jonathan Weitz is Clemson’s kicker; he was the backup kicker for four years, but this year he was studying for his Masters’ degree in Data Science and Analytics online at Clemson while living in Charleston— he wasn’t on the football team.
But Robert Gunn III missed three field goals and an extra point in the Tigers’ first three games this year, and Dabo Swinney came calling.
Weitz missed a 30-yard FG with 1:45 left Saturday against Florida State and the score tied. Clemson lost in overtime; Weitz has a job lined up in New York City in December. It isn’t as a kicker.
— Virginia’s kicker is a 34-year old ex-Marine. Matt Ganyard spent more than a decade as a Cobra helicopter pilot before returning to Charlottesville to pursue his MBA- he is married with two kids.
— Texas Longhorns have a kicker named Bert Auburn; you’d think the kid would go to school in the SEC. Imagine if he kicked at Alabama?
— Chicago Bears had $100,000 worth of equipment stolen from Soldier Field last week; the thieves tore down a security fence and drove the equipment out of a garage.
If the thieves had stolen Justin Fields’ helmet/shoulder pads, then they would’ve at least been helping the ball club.
— Sunday in Miami, the Dolphins were the first team to score 14+ points in every quarter of a game since the Detroit Lions in the 1957 NFL Championship Game vs Cleveland.
Yes, the Lions once played the Browns for the NFL title. Long time ago, though.
— From 2017-23, Mike Trout has played in 678 of the Angels’ 1,032 games, when he was 25-31 years old. One of the most important abilities is availability, which Trout doesn’t have a lot of.
— Sunday night in Las Vegas, the Raiders had a 4th-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8-yard line with 2:25 to play, trailing 23-15; they kicked a field goal, wound up losing 23-18.
Since the 2-point conversion started in the NFL in 1994, the Raiders are the only team to kick a field goal in the last 3:00 of a game when they trailed by 8 points, when they had 4th down and 5 or less yards to go.
Passing up a 4th-and-4 doesn’t show a lot of faith in your offense.
— Happy 90th birthday to Hubie Brown, the great basketball coach who was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2005.
Coach Brown has been an excellent TV analyst for decades now; he still does 15 games a year for ESPN. Long, long time ago, fall of 1984, I met coach Brown before an exhibition game in Glens Falls— his Knicks were playing a game against the Bulls and a rookie named Michael Jordan.
I was an assistant high school coach back then, an analytics-based guy, and I asked coach Brown some questions about what numbers he used in coaching. He was very polite to me and gave me a few minutes, which I always appreciated.
Happy birthday, coach!!!
Since 1966, the six QB’s the Chicago Bears drafted in the first round
— Jim McMahon
— Jim Harbaugh
— Cade McNown
— Rex Grossman
— Mitch Trubisky
— Justin Fields
Quote of the Day
“I didn’t take anything positive out of it. It was awful. You sit down? You sit down on a play? You go right down? What happened? I thought you’re trying to win and make plays. You quit on a play? What is going on? It’s disgusting. I wouldn’t keep him. I’ve seen enough of Zach Wilson.”
Joe Namath, talking about Jets’ QB Zach Wilson
Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; who did they beat in that game?
Monday’s quiz
Sean Payton was a replacement player for the Chicago Bears during the 1987 NFL players’ strike.
Sunday’s quiz
San Diego hosts the Holiday Bowl every December.
*******************************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..
Eagles 25, Buccaneers 11— Eagles outgained Tampa Bay, 472-174.
— Philadelphia converted 10-16 third down plays.
— Philly ran the football 40 times for 201 yards.
— Eagles won their first three games, scoring 25-34-25 points.
— Buccaneers’ first 8 drives: 36 plays, 104 yards, a FG and a safety.
— Eagles had four drives in 2nd half: 75-46-55-68 yards.
— Buccaneers are 16-18-3 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Tampa Bay hasn’t been 3-0 since 2005.
Bengals 19, Rams 16
— Ja’Marr Chase caught 12 passes for 141 yards.
— QB Burrow is playing with injured calf; he was 26-49/259 passing.
— Bengals are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 7-3-2 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
— Rams have scored one TD on their last 19 drives.
— LA converted only one of 11 third down plays.
— Rams are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
Rams scored TD with 1:03 left to push the spread, second week in a row they scored in the last 2:00 to push the spread.
— So far this season, NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside their division.
NFC North teams are 2-7 ATS outside their division.
NFC East teams are 4-5 ATS outside their division.
AFC West teams are 3-7 ATS outside their division.
League-wide, home favorites are 2-6 ATS in divisional games.
League-wide, home underdogs are 3-4 ATS in divisional games.
— College football conference trends:
Nationwide, home favorites in conference games are 15-9 ATS.
Nationwide, home underdogs in conference games are 14-12 ATS.
AAC teams are 14-23 ATS outside the conference.
ACC non-conference favorites are 11-7 ATS.
Big X non-conference road favorites are 2-6 ATS.
Big 14 teams are 13-19 ATS outside the conference.
Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 13-7 ATS.
Mountain West non-conference road underdogs are 12-4 ATS.
SEC teams are 2-7 ATS in non-conference games away from home.
Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 8-5 ATS.
— Word of the Day: Patience— the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset.
Remember, you can’t be a doctor without patience.
— Jonathan Weitz is Clemson’s kicker; he was the backup kicker for four years, but this year he was studying for his Masters’ degree in Data Science and Analytics online at Clemson while living in Charleston— he wasn’t on the football team.
But Robert Gunn III missed three field goals and an extra point in the Tigers’ first three games this year, and Dabo Swinney came calling.
Weitz missed a 30-yard FG with 1:45 left Saturday against Florida State and the score tied. Clemson lost in overtime; Weitz has a job lined up in New York City in December. It isn’t as a kicker.
— Virginia’s kicker is a 34-year old ex-Marine. Matt Ganyard spent more than a decade as a Cobra helicopter pilot before returning to Charlottesville to pursue his MBA- he is married with two kids.
— Texas Longhorns have a kicker named Bert Auburn; you’d think the kid would go to school in the SEC. Imagine if he kicked at Alabama?
— Chicago Bears had $100,000 worth of equipment stolen from Soldier Field last week; the thieves tore down a security fence and drove the equipment out of a garage.
If the thieves had stolen Justin Fields’ helmet/shoulder pads, then they would’ve at least been helping the ball club.
— Sunday in Miami, the Dolphins were the first team to score 14+ points in every quarter of a game since the Detroit Lions in the 1957 NFL Championship Game vs Cleveland.
Yes, the Lions once played the Browns for the NFL title. Long time ago, though.
— From 2017-23, Mike Trout has played in 678 of the Angels’ 1,032 games, when he was 25-31 years old. One of the most important abilities is availability, which Trout doesn’t have a lot of.
— Sunday night in Las Vegas, the Raiders had a 4th-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8-yard line with 2:25 to play, trailing 23-15; they kicked a field goal, wound up losing 23-18.
Since the 2-point conversion started in the NFL in 1994, the Raiders are the only team to kick a field goal in the last 3:00 of a game when they trailed by 8 points, when they had 4th down and 5 or less yards to go.
Passing up a 4th-and-4 doesn’t show a lot of faith in your offense.
— Happy 90th birthday to Hubie Brown, the great basketball coach who was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2005.
Coach Brown has been an excellent TV analyst for decades now; he still does 15 games a year for ESPN. Long, long time ago, fall of 1984, I met coach Brown before an exhibition game in Glens Falls— his Knicks were playing a game against the Bulls and a rookie named Michael Jordan.
I was an assistant high school coach back then, an analytics-based guy, and I asked coach Brown some questions about what numbers he used in coaching. He was very polite to me and gave me a few minutes, which I always appreciated.
Happy birthday, coach!!!
- Sep 10, 2018
- 16,865
- 15
- 38
NFL
Week 4
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Week 4
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- Sep 10, 2018
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Armadillo's Write-up
Week 4
Thursday’s game
Lions (2-1) @ Packers (2-1)
— Detroit allowed 20-6 points in wins, 37 in their loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 25-11-1 ATS.
— Lions are 15-10 ATS in their last 25 road games.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 5-4 ATS on natural grass.
— Lions are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 8-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Goff is 58-49-1 as an NFL starter, 14-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under is 11-6-1 in Detroit’s last 18 road games.
— Packers split their last two games, both decided by one point.
— Green Bay was down 17-0 at half LW, rallied to beat Saints 18-17.
— Home team won all three of their games this season.
— GB is 13-10-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 21-0 on 1st drive of half.
— Jordan Love is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 11-8 in their last 19 home games.
— Detroit is 7-5 SU in last 12 series games, 3-1 in last four.
— Lions covered 10 of last 12 meetings.
— Detroit is 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Lambeau.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 4
Thursday’s game
Lions (2-1) @ Packers (2-1)
— Detroit allowed 20-6 points in wins, 37 in their loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 25-11-1 ATS.
— Lions are 15-10 ATS in their last 25 road games.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 5-4 ATS on natural grass.
— Lions are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 8-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Goff is 58-49-1 as an NFL starter, 14-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under is 11-6-1 in Detroit’s last 18 road games.
— Packers split their last two games, both decided by one point.
— Green Bay was down 17-0 at half LW, rallied to beat Saints 18-17.
— Home team won all three of their games this season.
— GB is 13-10-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 21-0 on 1st drive of half.
— Jordan Love is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 11-8 in their last 19 home games.
— Detroit is 7-5 SU in last 12 series games, 3-1 in last four.
— Lions covered 10 of last 12 meetings.
— Detroit is 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Lambeau.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Thursday’s 6-pack:
best matchups for ACC-SEC basketball challenge in late November:
— Tennessee-North Carolina
— LSU-Syracuse
— Florida-Wake Forest
— Miami-Kentucky
— Duke-Arkansas
— Clemson-Alabama
Quote of the Day
“That’s why I’m going to shut it down. … I’m going to go get my body patched up again for about the 80th time and I’m going to try to go get healthy and I’m in no rush.”
Terry Francona
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, what number did he wear?
Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.
Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; they beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in that game- the Colts were in the NFL back then, the Jets in the AFL, before the leagues merged.
********************************************
Francona has had a great career as a manager; he seems to be universally loved by people who cross paths with him, especially the Cleveland TV guys. I’d like for him to get job at FOX or ESPN, so we can learn from him over the next few seasons.
Francona’s managerial career:
1997-2000— Phillies 285-363, not so good
2004-11— Red Sox— 744-552, won two World Series
2013-23— Indians/Guardians— 919-755, won AL pennant in 2016
This is a Hall of Fame career; hopefully, he’ll get voted in.
Oh yeah, he also managed the Birmingham Barons the year Michael Jordan played for the Barons. That had to be quite an experience.
— It is early in the season, but here is so info on how NFL teams are doing on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line— both offense and defense.
Lot of times, teams score on short drives or on defensive TD’s, but can an offense drive 75+ yards for a TD? That way, a team can still score points, even if they don’t get lot of turnovers.
— Offenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 4.23
Chargers 3.12
Cowboys 2.93
Mariners 2.60
Vikings 2.54
— Defenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Browns 0.04
Steelers 0.54— Defensive TD’s count towards these numbers.
Bills 0.68
Cowboys 0.69
Patriots 0.81
— Offenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.22
Giants 0.67— They gave up a defensive TD and a TD on a blocked FG.
Commanders 0.73
Browns 0.77— Gave up two defensive TD’s to the Steelers
Jaguars 0.89
— Defenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Broncos 3.61— They’ve given up 105 points in last two games.
Chargers 3.13
Raiders 3.00
Bears 3.00
Seahawks 2.83
— Chargers won 28-24 in Minnesota Sunday, despite losing field position by 16 yards; you almost never see a team win a game with such a disadvantage in field position.
— Word of the Day: Impasse— a situation in which no progress is possible, especially because of disagreement.
— Was reminded Monday night that when the Rams lose, I need to stay away from social media, because there are a lot of front-running, disloyal jerks out there.
Rams lose to the Bengals 19-16 Monday night, and all of a sudden, there are a lot of geniuses on Twitter ripping Sean McVay for various things, because hey, they know more about football than he does.
Oy.
— There was a big trade in the NBA Wednesday:
Milwaukee got Damian Lillard— he is 33 and has $200M left on his contract.
Portland got Jrue Holiday and DeAndre Ayton- they figure to trade free agent-to-be Holiday.
Phoenix got Jusuf Nurkic
Does this trade make the Bucks the preseason favorite for this year?
— Miami Marlins are contending for a playoff spot, the Mets have had a dismal season and right now, the Marlins are steamed because their game in New York Tuesday was rained out, because the Mets’ ground crew didn’t put the tarp on the field at Citi Field Saturday and it rained a lot, so the field was supposedly still unplayable Tuesday.
Miami wanted to use P Braxton Garrett Tuesday and then again Sunday, the last day of the season, but now they won’t be able to, unless he goes on three days’ rest Sunday. Not ideal.
The Mets say they just made a mistake, nothing intentional about it.
— Bill Dickey was a Hall of Fame catcher a long, long time ago; he lived in Little Rock, AR, where for a while, his paperboy was a young man named Brooks Robinson.
— The father of Diamondbacks’ OF Alek Thomas was the strength coach for the White Sox for like 20 years, so had to be weird this week for Thomas to be playing against the Pale Hose, like coming home again.
— Michigan State officially fired football coach Mel Tucker, which should keep lawyers for both sides busy for a while. Tucker was making $9.5M a year; they fired him for cause, ‘cuz they do not want to give him any more money.
— Glad to hear that the writers’ strike in Hollywood is over; now TV shows/movies can resume production.
best matchups for ACC-SEC basketball challenge in late November:
— Tennessee-North Carolina
— LSU-Syracuse
— Florida-Wake Forest
— Miami-Kentucky
— Duke-Arkansas
— Clemson-Alabama
Quote of the Day
“That’s why I’m going to shut it down. … I’m going to go get my body patched up again for about the 80th time and I’m going to try to go get healthy and I’m in no rush.”
Terry Francona
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, what number did he wear?
Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.
Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; they beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in that game- the Colts were in the NFL back then, the Jets in the AFL, before the leagues merged.
********************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..
— Wednesday was the Cleveland Guardians’ last home game this season, the last home game for manager Terry Francona, who is retiring after this season.Francona has had a great career as a manager; he seems to be universally loved by people who cross paths with him, especially the Cleveland TV guys. I’d like for him to get job at FOX or ESPN, so we can learn from him over the next few seasons.
Francona’s managerial career:
1997-2000— Phillies 285-363, not so good
2004-11— Red Sox— 744-552, won two World Series
2013-23— Indians/Guardians— 919-755, won AL pennant in 2016
This is a Hall of Fame career; hopefully, he’ll get voted in.
Oh yeah, he also managed the Birmingham Barons the year Michael Jordan played for the Barons. That had to be quite an experience.
— It is early in the season, but here is so info on how NFL teams are doing on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line— both offense and defense.
Lot of times, teams score on short drives or on defensive TD’s, but can an offense drive 75+ yards for a TD? That way, a team can still score points, even if they don’t get lot of turnovers.
— Offenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 4.23
Chargers 3.12
Cowboys 2.93
Mariners 2.60
Vikings 2.54
— Defenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Browns 0.04
Steelers 0.54— Defensive TD’s count towards these numbers.
Bills 0.68
Cowboys 0.69
Patriots 0.81
— Offenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.22
Giants 0.67— They gave up a defensive TD and a TD on a blocked FG.
Commanders 0.73
Browns 0.77— Gave up two defensive TD’s to the Steelers
Jaguars 0.89
— Defenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Broncos 3.61— They’ve given up 105 points in last two games.
Chargers 3.13
Raiders 3.00
Bears 3.00
Seahawks 2.83
— Chargers won 28-24 in Minnesota Sunday, despite losing field position by 16 yards; you almost never see a team win a game with such a disadvantage in field position.
— Word of the Day: Impasse— a situation in which no progress is possible, especially because of disagreement.
— Was reminded Monday night that when the Rams lose, I need to stay away from social media, because there are a lot of front-running, disloyal jerks out there.
Rams lose to the Bengals 19-16 Monday night, and all of a sudden, there are a lot of geniuses on Twitter ripping Sean McVay for various things, because hey, they know more about football than he does.
Oy.
— There was a big trade in the NBA Wednesday:
Milwaukee got Damian Lillard— he is 33 and has $200M left on his contract.
Portland got Jrue Holiday and DeAndre Ayton- they figure to trade free agent-to-be Holiday.
Phoenix got Jusuf Nurkic
Does this trade make the Bucks the preseason favorite for this year?
— Miami Marlins are contending for a playoff spot, the Mets have had a dismal season and right now, the Marlins are steamed because their game in New York Tuesday was rained out, because the Mets’ ground crew didn’t put the tarp on the field at Citi Field Saturday and it rained a lot, so the field was supposedly still unplayable Tuesday.
Miami wanted to use P Braxton Garrett Tuesday and then again Sunday, the last day of the season, but now they won’t be able to, unless he goes on three days’ rest Sunday. Not ideal.
The Mets say they just made a mistake, nothing intentional about it.
— Bill Dickey was a Hall of Fame catcher a long, long time ago; he lived in Little Rock, AR, where for a while, his paperboy was a young man named Brooks Robinson.
— The father of Diamondbacks’ OF Alek Thomas was the strength coach for the White Sox for like 20 years, so had to be weird this week for Thomas to be playing against the Pale Hose, like coming home again.
— Michigan State officially fired football coach Mel Tucker, which should keep lawyers for both sides busy for a while. Tucker was making $9.5M a year; they fired him for cause, ‘cuz they do not want to give him any more money.
— Glad to hear that the writers’ strike in Hollywood is over; now TV shows/movies can resume production.
