NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Highest scoring college basketball teams last year, and their record:
86.1— Gonzaga, 31-6
85.4— Toledo, 27-8
83.3— Oral Roberts, 30-5
82.8— Southern Utah, 24-13
81.9— Youngstown State, 24-10
81.9— Arizona, 28-7

Quote of the Day
“I would tell you that I am a lot more critical of myself than anybody on the outside…….There is no sugarcoating this thing. We have no excuse. We can coach better and we can play better. Hopefully, we will do that.”
Florida Gators’ football coach Billy Napier

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game?

Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.

Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.

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Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— Seahawks 24, Giants 3
Seattle sacked Daniel Jones 12 times for 67 yards.
Leading 17-3, Seahawks scored on a 97-yard pick-6.
Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 37-37-24 points.
Seahawks are 18-12-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games.
Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.

— NFL divisional trends, thru four weeks:
NFC East— 5-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North— 4-6-2 ATS outside the division
NFC South— 3-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC West— 8-0-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East— 5-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North— 3-4-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South— 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC West— 3-9 ATS outside the division

— College football trends, in conference games only:
AAC home favorites 2-5 ATS
ACC home underdogs 6-3 ATS
Big X favorites 9-3 ATS, 7-2 at home
Big 14 home underdogs 2-5 ATS
Conference USA favorites 4-2 ATS
MAC home teams are 1-6 ATS
Mountain West home teams are 4-3 ATS
Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 ATS
SEC favorites are 10-5 ATS
Sun Belt underdogs are 5-3 ATS

— Indiana Hoosiers fired their offensive coordinator Sunday; Hoosiers are 1-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 3-14-17 points in the three losses. Their lone I-A win was 29-27 over Akron.
The new OC is Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple, where he went 64-50 with seven bowl appearances.

— Word of the Day— Bamboozle— to deceive someone by tricking them.

— One of the more unfortunate baseball trends is that the Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games; their last playoff win was in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, when Johan Santana blanked New York 2-0, throwing seven shutout IP.
Twins are hosting Toronto this week, in the first round of this year’s playoffs, trying to put an end to a very long losing streak.

— Giants, Mets and Angels have already fired their managers; not sure why the front office people who assembled these underachieving teams still have their jobs, but they do.
Angels pay 3B Anthony Rendon more $$$ than Ohtani or Trout; the last three years, he’s played in 148 of a possible 486 games. This is Phil Nevin’s fault?

— Meanwhile, in the Bronx, New York has now spent over $3B in player salary since their last World Series title, yet GM Brian Cashman keeps his job- they’re even bringing manager Aaron Boone back next year. Go figure.

— Mariners’ P George Kirby threw a knuckleball in Seattle’s game vs Texas Sunday, to honor the late knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who passed away this weekend, at age 57.

— Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Falcons in England Sunday; they’re staying over the pond this week, and play Buffalo this Sunday. Does that give the Jaguars an advantage, staying overseas two weeks in a row?

— NC State is switching QB’s this week; sophomore MJ Morris will replace Brennan Armstrong, who transferred to State after starting for three years at Virginia. Wolfpack lost 13-10 at home to Louisville Friday, which prompted the change.

— Duke QB Riley Leonard has a high ankle sprain, is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough broke his leg, is out for the year.

— NBA’s Portland Trailblazers traded All-Star G Jrue Holiday to the Celtics, in exchange for C Robert Williams, G Malcolm Brogdon and two 1st-round draft picks, one in 2024, one in 2029.
The 2029 draft pick is likely going to be a kid who is in 7th grade right now.

— If the playoffs started today (wait, they do start today!!!)
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Toronto @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Miami @ Philadelphia

— Damn, September went by quick; baseball’s regular season is over, training camps for NHL/NBA teams are starting, this is Week 5 in the NFL already. Time flies when you’re having fun.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 5

CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.

HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after an upset win since 1992.

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 2 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in weeks 5 - 9 in the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in October games in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 56-23 ATS (30.7 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in home games after allowing >=30 pts. in the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 29-12 ATS (15.8 Units) after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

NY JETS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

LAS VEGAS are 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Rangers 3, Rays 0— Montgomery tossed 7 shutout IP.
— Tampa Bay is 5-13 in its last 18 playoff games.
— Twins 3, Blue Jays 1— Royce Lewis homered twice.
— Minnesota ends its 18-game postseason losing streak.
— Arizona 6, Brewers 3— Arizona hit three HR’s off of Burnes
— Phillies 4, Marlins 1— Wheeler allowed one run in 6.2 IP.

Quote of the Day
“We playing football. He’s mad he got hit? What do most quarterbacks do when they don’t want to get hit? They go down. I don’t really know what else to tell him about that.”
Giants’ LB Isaiah Simmons, talking about Monday night’s game with Seattle

Wednesday’s quiz
Before last night, who was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game?

Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.

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Wednesday’s Den: How NFL offenses are doing on first drive of a half​

Today we’re looking at how NFL offenses do on their first drive of each half; four games for each team, so eight drives for everyone.

First drive of a game:
Who game plans best during the week?

— 49ers have three TD’s and FG on their first drive of a game, 24 points (41 plays, 255 yards).
Denver has three TD’s on their first drives (35 plays, 236 yards)
Rams have two TD’s, two FG’s on their first drive (44 plays, 248 yards)
— Miami is averaging 10.8 yards/play on its opening drives (28 plays, 302 yards); they’ve scored two TD’s and field goal on those drives.

— Minnesota’s offense has run 21 plays for 129 yards on opening drives, but the opponents’ defense has outscored the Viking offense, 7-0, thanks to a 99-yard pick-6. Not good.

— Giants/Browns have both been outscored 7-3 on their first drives. Giants gave up a blocked FG for a TD, Browns gave up a defensive TD.

— In their four games, Jets have run 14 plays for 32 yards on their first drive.
Steelers have run 17 plays for 24 yards.
Jaguars have run 22 plays for 71 yards.
None of those teams have scored on an opening drive.

First drive of second half:
Who makes the best offensive adjustments at halftime?

— Green Bay has three TD’s on their first drive of 2nd half (29 plays, 222 yards)
Eagles have two TDs, two FG’s on their first drive of 2nd half (34 plays, 160 yards)

— Dallas has run 45 plays for 234 yards on their first drive of 3rd quarter, but scored only one TD- they kicked three FG’s, too.

— Surprisingly, Arizona has run 33 plays for 227 yards, scoring 18 points, part of why they’re 3-1 against the spread already.

— Buffalo has run 36 plays for 208 yards, but only has a TD and a FG to show for it.

— Detroit has run only 10 plays for 12 yards on its first 3rd quarter drive; three 3/outs and a lost fumble. They only gained 84 yards on 16 plays on their first drive of the game, surprising.

— There are four teams who haven’t scored on their first drive of third quarter:
Denver 20 plays, 129 yards
Detroit 10 plays, 12 yards
Houston 19 plays, 14 yards
Las Vegas 23 plays, 79 yards, 2 INT’s.

First drive of all eight halves:
— Rams/Eagles play each other this week; they also share the NFL lead with 33 points scored on their first drive of a half.
Dolphins, Packers, 49ers are next, with 31 points each.

— Dallas has gained 446 yards on 79 plays (29 points) on their first drive of a half, the most yards of any team, followed by the Rams (77 plays, 438 yards), Eagles (76 plays, 425 yards)

— Giants have run 71 plays for 320 yards, good for 10 points, but they also gave up a TD on a blocked FG, so they’re only +3 in points on first drives.

— Vikings have run 47 plays for 236 yards, scoring a TD, giving up a TD to the defense.

— Houston Texans have run total of 41 plays for only 83 yards on their first drive of a half, fewest yards in the league.
Detroit, surprisingly, has run 26 plays for only 96 yards.
NFL games are relatively short (nine or so drives per team); the first drive of each half makes up maybe 20-25% of all drives, which is significant.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at which defenses do best/worst in this situation.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 5

Thursday’s game
Bears (0-4) @ Commanders (2-2)
— Chicago lost its first four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
— Opponents have scored 14 TDs on 40 drives.
— Bears are 9-29 SU/13-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago threw for 300 yards LW (averaged 148/first 3 games)
— Chicago is 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games as road underdogs.
— Fields is 5-24 SU as an NFL starter.
— Chicago has been outscored 73-38 in second half of games.
— Bears are 14-24-3 ATS in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— NFC North teams are 4-7-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 4-0

— Washington gave up 33-37-34 points the last three weeks.
— Commanders have converted only 16-48 third down plays.
— Washington is 5-10 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Washington has 9 TD’s on 31 drives.
— Last two weeks, Commanders were outscored 45-17 in 2nd half.
— Under is 12-5 in Washington’s last 17 games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-2 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 8-11 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-0

— Commanders won eight of last nine series games.
— Bears are 3-2 ATS in last five visits here.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
— Bears beat Washington 73-0 in NFL title game a long time ago, 1940.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 5

Sunday’s games
Bills (3-1) vs Jaguars (2-2) (@ London)
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 103-16.
— Bills have converted 26-52 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 26-18-1 ATS in last 45 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo has outscored opponents 81-27 in first half.
— Bills outscored last three foes 55-9 in second half.
— Bills have 8 takeaways in last three games (+4)
— Last three games, opponents are 7-26 on third den.
— Josh Allen is 50-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-13-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-0-1

— Jaguars are playing in England for second week in a row.
— Jaguars scored 21-23 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Under Pederson, Jags are 7-6 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY)
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down this season.
— Jaguars are 9-13 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Last three games, Jacksonville has only 3 offensive TD’s on 28 drives.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +10 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 58-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 14-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: under 2-1-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Teams split their last ten meetings.
— Underdogs covered last five series games.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Texans (2-2) @ Falcons (2-2)
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt their last two games.
— Houston scored 37-30 points last two games (9-20 first two games)
— Texans are 9-11-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Houston has converted 31-64 third down plays.
— Opponents have converted 27-57 third down plays.
— Houston is 6-4-1 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Stroud is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 3-9-2 ATS last 14 games against NFC opponents.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 19 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— This is Houston’s first game this year on artificial turf.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Falcons scored 24-25 points in their wins, 6-7 in their losses.
— Atlanta didn’t take bye week after their game in England LW.
— Falcons won both their home games, 24-10/25-24.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-10-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Ridder is 4-4 as an NFL starting QB.
— Atlanta is 8-6-1 ATS in its last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Falcons are 7-6-3 ATS in last 16 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-1

— Home team won all five series games.
— Texans lost 48-21/26-16 in their two visits to Atlanta.
— Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Panthers (0-4) @ Lions (3-1)
— Carolina lost first four games (0-3-1 ATS), scoring 10-17-27-13 points.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— In Young’s three starts. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/4.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers are 14-42 on 3rd down in Young’s start, 10-19 in Dalton’s start
— Opponents are only 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 17-25-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Detroit allowed 20-6-20 points in wins, 37 in their loss.
— Lions played on Thursday LW, had couple days longer to prepare.
— Lions outscored last three opponents 54-13 in first half.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 26-11-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit scored 10 TD’s on its last 33 drives.
— Goff is 59-49-1 as an NFL starter, 15-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 9-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Carolina won eight of last ten series games.
— Panthers are 1-2-1 ATS in last four visits to Detroit.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Titans (2-2) @ Colts (2-2)
— Titans scored 27-27 points in their wins; they didn’t score TD in either loss.
— Tennessee lost nine of its last 11 games SU.
— Titans lost their two road games, 16-15/27-3.
— Titans are minus-2 in turnovers (2-4) so far this season.
— First drive of their games, Titans ran 31 plays for only 62 yards.
— Titans are 12-6 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— Tannehill is 82-70 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Titans are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Tennessee is 9-3 ATS in last 12 AFC South road games.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-1

— Colts lost both home games, won both road games.
— Three of four Colt games this season went over the total.
— Indy has scored 21+ points in all four games.
— Last two weeks, Colts gave up 186-164 rushing yards.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games.
— Indy is 16-14-2 ATS in last 32 games coming off a loss.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Richardson is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 3-0-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Titans won/covered last four series games.
— Tennessee covered five of last six visits to Indianapolis.
— Last three series games stayed under the total.

Giants (1-3) @ Dolphins (3-1)
— Short week for Giants after Monday’s 24-3 loss to Seattle
— Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games.
— Giants are averaging only 252 yards/game this season.
— Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
— Under Daboll, Giants are 6-2 ATS as a road underdog (0-1 TY).
— Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
— Last two games, Giants have one TD, eight 3/outs on 21 drives.
— Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 5-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Miami won/covered three of first four games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— Miami is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Dolphins have scored 20 TD’s on 44 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In four games, opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Dolphins are 11-15 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC opponents.
— Three of their four games went over the total.
— Tagovailoa is 24-14 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Giants won four of last five meetings.
— Big Blue is 1-1 ATS in last two visits to Miami.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Saints (2-2) @ Patriots (1-3)
— Saints split first four games, scoring only 15.5 ppg.
— Saints have only 4 offensive TD’s on 41 drives.
— Last two games, Saints were outscored 30-6 in second half.
— Last two games, opponents converted 16-33 on third down.
— Saints have been outscored 13-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— NO is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 4-0 in Saints’ games this season.
— Saints were under 80 rushing yards in three of their four games.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— New England lost both home games, 25-20/24-17.
— Last two games, Patriots have one offensive TD on 23 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-28 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games.
— Mac Jones is 17-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 7-6-3 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— Patriots are 17-17-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a loss.
— AFC East teams are 5-5 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 3-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: 2-2

— Patriots won four of last six series games.
— Saints are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 3-3 in last six series games.

Ravens (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)
— Ravens won/covered three of four games; they lost in OT to Colts.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Ravens are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore converted 27 of their first 57 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 15-10 in their last 25 road games.
— Under is 3-1 in Baltimore games this season.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— QB Pickett was banged up last week (check status)
— Steelers scored 26-23 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
— Steelers have been outgained by 115 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in last seven games decided by 8 or less points.
— Three of four Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers have seven takeaways in last three games (+3)
— Pitt is 27-15-1 ATS in last 43 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 9-7 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Steelers are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six series games.
— Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.

Bengals (1-3) @ Cardinals (1-3)
— QB Burrow (calf) is hampered by calf injury; lot fewer long passes.
— Short week for Cincinnati after Monday night’s win.
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Bengals have only three TD’s on 40 drives this season.
— Bengals gave up 173+ rushing yards in three of four games.
— Cincinnati is 6-4-1 ATS in its last 11 games on natural grass.
— Bengals are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Cincinnati is 14-7-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss (0-1-1 TY).
— Bengals are 4-4-1 ATS in last nine games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Arizona is 1-3 SU, but they covered three of four games.
— Cards have outscored foes 64-41 in 1st half, were outscored 61-24 in 2nd half.
— Arizona hasn’t turned ball over in last three games (+3 TO’s for season)
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Cardinals are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— QB Dobbs is 1-5 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Last three games, Cardinals allowed 10 TD’s on 23 drives.
— Last three Cardinal games went over the total.
— Team total: over 4-0. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Cardinals won four of last five series games.
— Three of the four wins were by exactly 3 points.
— Bengals lost 34-31/17-14 in last two visits to Arizona.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.

Eagles (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)
— Eagles won road games: 25-20 (-4) at NE, 25-11 (-5) at Tampa
— Eagles won first four games (2-1-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Philly has 8 takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers)
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 29-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 6-7 ATS as road favorites (2-0 TY).
— Eagles have nine TD’s on their last 31 drives.
— Hurts is 29-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 13-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Team total: over 3-0-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— LA scored 30-29 points in its wins, 23-16 in their losses.
— Rams led or were tied in second half of all four games.
— Rams were outscored 49-19 in 2nd half the last three weeks.
— Rams are 17-32 on 3rd down in wins, 8-25 in losses.
— LA ran ball for 164 yards LW (84 yards/game first three games)
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Stafford is 95-106-1 as an NFL starter, 21-13 with the Rams.
— Rams have only two takeaways in four games (minus-3 TO’s).
— Under McVay, Rams are 24-32-2 ATS in games coming of a win.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-1

— Eagles won seven of last eight series games.
— Rams are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Philadelphia.
— Last four series games went over the total.

Jets (1-3) @ Broncos (1-3)
— Jets lost last three games, by 20-5-3 points.
— Jets have been outscored 61-28 in first half of games.
— First four games, Jets gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Jets were outgained 1,141-722.
— Last two games, Jets converted 8-36 third down plays.
— Jets are 8-15 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 11-12 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East underdogs are 1-3 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 2-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Broncos are 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS so far this season.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Three of their four games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Denver won LW in Chicago, despite trailing 28-7 in 3rd quarter.
— Broncos are 4-9-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Denver lost 14 of its last 18 games SU.
— Last three Broncos games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 118-74-1 as an NFL starter, 5-14 with Denver.
— AFC West teams are 3-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Jets’ OC Hackett was fired as coach of the Broncos LY.
— This summer, Sean Payton ripped Hackett’s coaching in Denver.
— Broncos won five of last seven series games.
— Jets are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Denver.

Chiefs (3-1) @ Vikings (1-3)
— Chiefs won last three games, by 8-31-3 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have outscored opponents 75-25 in first half.
— Last two weeks, KC was outscored 18-10 in second half.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC opponents.
— Mahomes is 78-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Opponents have converted only 17-51 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 3-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Vikings are 1-3 this year, with losses by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points (1-3 TY).
— Minnesota has turned ball over 11 times already (minus-8).
— Vikings lost their two home games, 20-17/28-24.
— Since 2018, Vikings are 17-26-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Minnesota didn’t allow an offensive TD in LW’s 21-13 win at Carolina.
— Cousins is 74-69-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1

— Home team won last five series games.
— Chiefs lost 16-10/45-20 in last two visits to Minnesota.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
— Chiefs upset Minnesota in Super Bowl IV, a long time ago.

Cowboys (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)
— Three Dallas wins were by a combined score of 108-13.
— Cowboys gave up 222 YR in only loss, 28-16 at Arizona.
— Last two years, Dallas was 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cowboys have outscored opponents 42-10 in second half.
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 14-49.
— Dallas is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys outgained first three opponents, 1,440-1,039.
— QB Prescott is 66-41 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have nine takeaways in three games (+7 turnovers).
— NFC East teams are 5-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— San Francisco scored 30-30-30-35 points in 4-0 start (3-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 50-18 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 153 yards/game.
— 49ers are 9-1 ATS in last ten games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers have 14 TD’s on 36 drives this year
— 49ers are 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +20 in turnovers (+6 in four games TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 11-1 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Teams split their last six meetings.
— 49ers beat Dallas 19-12 here in LY’s playoffs.
— Cowboys are 2-2-1 ATS in last four visits to Santa Clara.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

Monday’s game
Packers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)
— Last two weeks, Packers were outscored 44-3 in first half.
— Green Bay allowed 20-17 points in wins, 25-34 in losses.
— Packers are 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC opponents.
— GB is 13-11-2 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 13-5 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 31-0 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 3-1 in their games this season.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Garoppolo was in concussion protocol (check status)
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 passing LW in his first NFL start.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17 points in first four games.
— Las Vegas is 10-16 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Raiders are 12-9-1 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Las Vegas is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC West teams are 3-9 ATS outside the division.
— Garoppolo is 41-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Packers won/covered last five series games.
— Green Bay won 30-20/41-7 in last two visits to Oakland.
— This is Packers’ first game in Las Vegas.
— Green Bay beat the Raiders 33-14 in Super Bowl II, long time ago.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Odds to win the Stanley Cup this season:
8-1— Maple Leafs
17-2— Avalanche
9-1— Oilers
10-1— Hurricanes, Devils
11-1— Golden Knights
13-1— Rangers

Quote of the Day
“We haven’t had a road win yet. We pride ourselves on the road on playing really good football, good defense, good scheme. We need it for morale, we need it for our ranking, we need it for everything.”

Joe Burrow
Thursday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals have played in three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; who were they?

Wednesday’s quiz
Before Tuesday night, Ron Gardenhire was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game, in 2004.

Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

**********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

Four best-of-3 series, four sweeps. Not what the MLB office had in mind for this week.

— Rangers 7, Rays 1
Rookie Carter homered, Eovaldi got 20 outs, allowing one run.
Tough end to year for Tampa squad after their 99-63 season.
Attendance for two games: 19,704/20,198— disappointing.
Texas moves on to play the Orioles next.

— Texas manager Bruce Bochy hit 26 home runs in his playing career; he was mostly a backup catcher, but he has one great claim to fame as a player.
Bochy is the only player ever to hit a walk-off home run against Nolan Ryan.

— Twins 2, Blue Jays 0
Sonny Gray tossed five shutout IP for Minnesota.
Twins used five relievers to get the last 12 outs.
Minnesota moves on to play the Astros in the next round.

— Diamondbacks 5, Brewers 2
Zac Gallen gave up 2 runs in first inning, nothing for next five innings.
Alek Thomas homered for Arizona.
Diamondbacks move on to play their division rival Dodgers next.

— Phillies 7, Marlins 1
Bryson Stott hit a grand slam.
Aaron Nola allowed only four baserunners in 7 shutout IP.
Phillies move on to play their division rivals, the Braves.

— I know my Oakland A’s had a cruddy year; they went 50-112, mostly because their owner is a cheap bastard who doesn’t try to win, but keep this in mind; on the 12 teams that did make the playoffs this year, there are 23 players who at one time did play for the A’s.
Olson. Semien. Bassitt. Chapman. Murphy. Luzardo. Heim.
Good players.
Maybe Bill Gates will take an interest in baseball and buy the team.

— Wednesday was the first day of 50 consecutive days with at least one football game on TV; Conference USA. MAC are putting their games on Tuesdays/Wednesdays the next few weeks.

— Word of the Day: Acumen— the ability to make good judgments and quick decisions.

— They have a survivor football pool at the Circa Casino in Las Vegas; you pick one team a week, all they have to do is win, but you can only pick the same team once a season, and if your team loses, you’re eliminated.
9,267 entered the Circa contest; after four weeks, only 2,383 entrants are left. First prize for the last person standing is $9,267,000.

— NBA training camps have started; it must suck playing for the LA Clippers. You get paid millions to play basketball and for training camp, they send you to……..Hawai’i.
Must be awful.

— San Diego Padres’ 3B Manny Machado is having elbow surgery; it is unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of spring training next year. 31-year old Machado hit 30 homers this year; his OPS was the lowest it has been since 2017.

— Last three games, Buffalo Bills have started eight drives in enemy territory; their opponents haven’t started any in Buffalo territory.

— Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel grew up in the Denver area; when he was in high school, he was a Broncos’ ballboy, had to be odd when his Dolphins whacked Denver 70-20 a couple weeks ago.

— The timing of NFL byes can be good/bad luck; Seattle is playing really well, having an early bye like this one can’t be their favorite thing.
On the other hand, Browns/Chargers have banged-up quarterbacks- they have to feel lucky that their signal caller has a week off to try and get healthier.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 5

 

[Udog]

Bears vs Commanders Betting Trends​

• The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of Chicago's last 15 games.
• The Bears are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.
• The Commanders are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 19 games.
• The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against Washington.
• The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
• The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Washington.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 5​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
CHI at WAS	08:15 PM	WAS -6.0 U 44.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Pending Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Status	Pick
Oct 5, 2023	NFL	Chicago Washington	- -	08:15 PM	Under 44.5

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Oct 4, 2023	MLB	Arizona Milwaukee	5 2	ARI +114	Win

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Oct 5, 2023	NFL	Chicago Washington	40 20	Under 44.5	Loss

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
10/05/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/02/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
10/01/2023	11-10-1	52.27%	+0	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/05/2023...............................0 - 2..................................00.00%....................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1..................................50.00%....................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1.............................52.27%...................................+ 00.00

TOTALS...................................12 - 13 - 1.............................48.00%...................................- 11.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
College football totals trends:

5-0 over teams
LSU
Boston College

5-0-1 over
Vanderbilt

4-0 over
North Texas

5-0 under
Ohio U
Utah
Arizona

Quote of the Day
“…….Butkus was a well-conditioned animal, and every time he hit you, he tried to put you in the cemetery, not a hospital.”
Hall of Fame DE Deacon Jones

Friday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Thursday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals have played in three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Joe Burrow.

Wednesday’s quiz
Before Tuesday night, Ron Gardenhire was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game, in 2004.

*************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

— Bears 40, Commanders 20:
Chicago snaps a 14-game losing streak.
Bears in first half: 42 plays, 307 yards, 3 TD, 2 FG on five drives.
DJ Moore caught eight passes for 230 yards and 3 TD’s.
Chicago ran ball for 178 yards (5.6 yards/carry).
Last four weeks, Commanders gave up 33-37-34-37 points.
Down 30-20 with 5:10 left, Washington missed a 46-yard FG.
Washington is 5-11 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
Commanders are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.

— Commanders have started 13 different QB’s since 2017, which is a lot. Seems like 2nd-year QB Sam Howell will grab a hold on that position for the foreseeable future.

— Here are the top 12 picks in the first round of the 1965 NFL Draft
1) Tucker Frederickson, RB, NYG
2) Ken Willard, RB, SF
3) Dick Butkus, LB, Chi
4) Gale Sayers, RB, Chi
5) Craig Morton, QB, Dal
6) Steve DeLong, DE, Chi
7) Donny Anderson, RB-P, GB
8) Jack Snow, WR, Minn
9) Clancy Williams, DB, Rams
10) Larry Elkins, WR, GB
11) Tom Nowatzke, RB, Det
12) Joe Namath, QB, StL
Gale Sayers the 4th pick? Were college games on TV back then?
Craig Morton over Joe Namath was an interesting decision.

— RIP to the great linebacker Dick Butkus, who passed away Thursday at age 80. Not only was Butkus a Hall of Fame linebacker, he had a decent acting career after his playing days were over. He has 62 acting credits on IMDB.com
Butkus played one of the opposing coaches for Al Pacino’s Miami Sharks in Any Given Sunday;

— Jacksonville State 45, Middle Tennessee 30
1-5 Middle Tennessee led 23-7 at halftime.
5-1 Jacksonville State outscored them 38-7 in second half.
MTSU gained 563 yards, still lost by 15 points.
Gamecocks now have a +11 turnover ratio in six games.

— New Mexico State 34, Florida International 17
Game was tied 14-all at halftime.
Aggies had TD plays of 43-49 yards.
New Mexico State ran ball for 183 yards (5.9 yards/carry).
Aggies are 9-3 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.

— Liberty 21, Sam Houston State 16
Flames were a 21-point favorite; they led 21-10 at halftime.
Liberty ran for 191 yards, outgained Bearkats 448-327.
Liberty averaged 13.5 yards per pass attempt.
Sam Houston is 0-5, but last two losses were 38-45/16-21.

— Western Kentucky 35, Louisiana Tech 28
Hilltoppers led 35-7 at halftime.
WKU had four TD plays of 29+ yards.
WR Corley caught 8 passes for 207 yards and three TD’s.
Tech was 4-17 on 3rd down, 4-6 on 4th down.

— Word of the Day: Distraction- a thing that prevents someone from giving full attention to something else.

— Mets’ general manager Billy Eppler quit Thursday; Mets hired David Stearns last week to be the new head of the front office, but Eppler was expected to stick around in the #2 position.
There is no evidence that Eppler was good at his job anyway; he was the top guy for the Angels and Mets, two big-market teams with huge payrolls and he still didn’t accomplish much— he is the guy who paid Anthony Rendon more than Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani.
Mets had a $357M payroll this year but still lost more games than they won.

— There are TV commercials on during the day trying to get people to buy gold; Chuck Woolery is the spokesman on the commercials— he was the original host of Wheel of Fortune back when I was in high school in the mid-70’s.
He is 82 years old now, hasn’t had a game show gig since 2007, but he’s still out there doing commercials.

— Fontainebleau Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas is expected to open December 13; the 67-story hotel has a six-acre pool complex and has 36 bars/restaurants. It cost $3.7B to build, which is a nice way of saying I can’t afford to stay there

— So far this season, Cincinnati Bengals have had only five plays that gained 20+ yards; their opponents have 17.

— In their last three games, Denver Broncos have given up 23 plays of 20+ yards.

— Minnesota Timberwolves beat Dallas Mavericks 111-99 in the first NBA preseason game of the year Thursday; the game was played in Abu Dhabi, the first of two games they’ll play there.
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 21 points in 17:00 for Minnesota.

— This weekend’s Diamondback-Dodger playoff series will be the fifth time in the last seven years that the #1-#2 teams in NL West have faced each other in the playoffs.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Super Bowls won, by division:
13— NFC East
9— AFC West, AFC East
8— NFC West, AFC North
5— NFC North
3— NFC South
2— AFC South

Quote of the Day
“With a heavy heart, I want to let everyone know I had “Tommy John” surgery today and will miss next season. I am most saddened for the great Marlins fans, who were so supportive of me and the team this year. The drive to the playoffs was thrilling for all of us.”
Sandy Alcantara

Saturday’s quiz
When the Marlins acquired Jazz Chisholm from Arizona, who did they send to the Diamondbacks?

Friday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Thursday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals have played in three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Joe Burrow.

******************************************************

Saturday’s Den: Early thoughts on this year’s college basketball​

— Florida Atlantic made a miraculous run to the Final Four last year, then somehow kept both their head coach and all their players, as they move up from Conference USA to the AAC.
AAC lost three teams to the Big X, added six other teams.
Tulsa went 5-25 last year, then cleaned house; they have only one scholarship player returning.

— San Diego State beat FAU 72-71 in national semi-final, then lost to UConn in the national title game; they lost five 5th-year players from last year’s team, but re-tooled with some transfers and still figure to be prominent in the Mountain West race.
San Jose State had their first winning season since 2011.
Only new coach in Mountain West is Utah State’s Danny Sprinkle, who takes over from Ryan Odom, who bolted to Virginia Commonwealth.

— Atlantic 15 was #13 conference LY, tied for their worst ranking ever- they only got one team into the NCAA’s. VCU had won nine in a row heading into March Madness, but lost 63-51 to Saint Mary’s in their first round game.
VCU coach Rhoades jumped from VCU to Penn State, a strange decision (Penn State will have an almost all-new roster this year). Penn State is a football school; VCU is a basketball school, you’d think a basketball coach would much rather be there.

— Big 14 hasn’t won a national championship since 2000, when Michigan State won; they didn’t have a team in the Elite 8 the last two years, had only four Sweet 16 teams the last three years.
Purdue gets big man Zach Edey back; they figure to be very good again.

— Since 2015, five of the 15 ACC basketball teams have made it to a Final Four.

— CAA is now the Coastal Athletic Association, not the Colonial; last year they slipped from the #14 league to the #26 league- they had seven of their teams finish outside the top 300. There is a new CAA team this year; the Campbell Camels.

— Word of the Day: Continuity— the unbroken and consistent existence or operation of something over a period of time.

— BYU has bolted from the WCC to the Big 12, leaving the WCC with nine teams (for now).
Last year, Portland Pilots had players from eight different countries.

— Big X had seven teams in the NCAA’s last year; they add four new teams this year, the year before Texas/Oklahoma bolt to the SEC, then they’ll have 16 teams next year, when lot of the old Pac-12 teams join the league.
Josh Eilert is interim coach at West Virginia, replacing Hall of Famer Bob Huggins; he’ll try to win enough games to get the interim tag removed.

— Big West was the #15 league LY; after being the #30 league in 2020, they’ve been #15-19-15 the three years since then.
Cal-Northridge hired Andy Newman, the league’s only new coach this year.
Cal-Davis player Drew Carter used to be a quarterback at Colorado; he threw 12 passes for the Buffaloes in 2021. I’m told that Colorado has a new football coach now, and his son is the QB, so Carter is at Cal-Davis playing basketball now.

— Princeton got to the Sweet 16 last year, upsetting Arizona/Missouri; they were the 4th Ivy League team to make the Sweet 16, the first since Cornell in 2010.
When Magic Johnson/Larry Bird played in the Final Four in 1979, one of the other two teams in the Final Four that year was the Penn Quakers.

— Rick Pitino is the new coach at St John’s; he overhauled the roster, with nine players hitting the road, as Pitino added 10 new players, including two guys from the Ivy League.
St John’s hasn’t made the NCAA’s since 2019; they’ve made it twice since 2011, it would be really surprising if Pitino doesn’t make them a perennial top 25 team.

— Tobin Anderson replaced Pitino at Iona; he led Fairleigh Dickinson to the NCAA’s LY, where they upset Purdue.
Iona has been in six of the last seven NCAA Tournaments, so there are big expectations in New Rochelle, but they have only one player back from last year- they added 12 new players.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 8​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
JAC at BUF	09:30 AM	JAC +5.5 O 48.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Pending Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Status	Pick
Oct 8, 2023	NFL	Jacksonville Buffalo	- -	09:30 AM	Over 48.5