NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 6
Thursday’s game
Broncos (1-4) @ Chiefs (4-1)
— Broncos are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS so far this season.
— Broncos gave up 41 ppg in their last four games.
— Denver actually led three of its five games at halftime.
— Denver has been outscored 93-54 in 2nd half of games.
— Last 3 weeks, Broncos were outgained by 207.3 yards/game.
— Broncos are 16-10-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
— Denver is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 AFC West road games.
— Last four Bronco games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 118-75-1 as an NFL starter, 5-15 with Denver.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-1
— Chiefs won last four games, by 8-31-3-7 points (3-1 ATS).
— Chiefs converted 26 of last 41 third down plays.
— KC scored 10 touchdowns on its last 28 drives.
— KC is 11-14 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs have outscored opponents 88-28 in first half.
— KC has been outscored 42-40 in second half.
— Chiefs are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in last nine AFC West home games.
— Mahomes is 79-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
— Chiefs won their last 15 games against Denver.
— Broncos are 3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Arrowhead.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 3-9 ATS
Sunday’s games
Ravens (3-2) vs Titans (2-3) (@ London)
— Ravens scored 25+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only four TD’s on 59 drives.
— Ravens are 12-15-1 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +2 in wins.
— Ravens are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as favorite away from home.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.
— Under is 4-1 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 5-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1
— Titans scored 27-27 points in wins; they scored 15-3-16 in losses.
— Tennessee lost 10 of its last 12 games SU.
— Titans lost their three road games, 16-15/27-3/23-16.
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers (2-5) so far this season.
— Titans are 16-12-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Tannehill is 82-71 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Last three games, Titans were outscored 27-13 in second half.
— AFC South teams are 8-5 ATS outside the division.
— Four of their five games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-2-1
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Last time these teams met was 2020.
Commanders (2-3) @ Falcons (3-2)
— Washington gave up 33-37-34-40 points the last four weeks.
— Commanders scored 31-30 points last two weeks, still lost both games.
— Commanders lost their last three games, overall.
— Washington is 6-8 ATS last 14 games as a road dog (2-0 TY)
— Washington’s two road games were W35-33/L31-34.
— Last three weeks, Commanders were outscored 53-20 in 1st half.
— Over is 3-1 in Washington’s last four games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-3 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: 3-2 over. Opponents’ team total: over 5-0
— Falcons scored 24-25-21 points in their wins, 6-7 in their losses.
— Atlanta won all three home games, by 14-1-2 points.
— Falcons are 3-2, but haven’t led (0-4-1) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 56-26 in first half of games.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 5-8-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Ridder is 5-4 as an NFL starting QB.
— Atlanta is 13-21-2 ATS in last 36 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons converted 13 of last 26 third down plays.
— Under is 11-2 in their last 13 games overall, 4-1 TY.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-2
— Washington won last two series games, 19-13/34-30
— Commanders are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Atlanta.
— Over is 5-4 in last nine meetings.
Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (1-4)
— Vikings are 1-4 this year, with losses by 3-6-4-7 points.
— LY, Minnesota was 11-0 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has turned ball over 12 times already (minus-9).
— Vikings split their two road games, L28-34/W21-13.
— Since 2020, Vikings are 10-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Minnesota is 15-7-1 ATS last 23 games as a road favorite.
— Cousins is 74-70-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Home underdogs are 5-6-1 ATS in divisional games.
— Star WR Jefferson is on IR, will miss at least four games.
— Team total: under 4-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2-1
— Chicago lost four of first five games, giving up 33.4 ppg.
— Opponents have scored 16 TDs on 51 drives.
— Bears are 10-29 SU/14-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Last two games, Bears led 21-7/27-3 at halftime.
— Chicago threw for 300-273 yards last 2 games (averaged 148/first 3 games)
— Chicago is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as home underdogs.
— Fields is 6-24 SU as an NFL starter.
— Chicago has been outscored 100-51 in second half of games.
— Bears are 2-7 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 5-0
— Minnesota won last five (4-1 ATS) series games.
— Vikings won/covered last three visits to Chicago.
— Under is 4-0 in last four meetings played here.
Seahawks (3-1) @ Bengals (2-3)
— Seahawks won/covered last three games, scoring 37-37-24 points.
— Seattle have converted only 13-43 third down plays.
— Seahawks outscored last two opponents 35-14 in second half.
— Seattle won both road games, 37-31 (+4) at Detroit, 24-3 (even) at Giants.
— Seahawks are 18-12-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Geno Smith is 25-30 as an NFL starter, 13-12 with Seattle.
— Last 3+ years, Seattle is 10-15 ATS coming off a win (2-0 TY).
— Last three years, Seahawks are 0-3 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
— Seattle is 19-20 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 8-1-1 ATS outside the division.
— QB Burrow threw for 317 yards last week, leg looked healthier.
— Chase caught 15 passes for 192 yards and three TD’s in 34-20 win.
— Bengals had 3 TD’s LW/had 3 TD’s on 40 drives in first 4 games.
— Bengals gave up 154 rushing yards/game in first five games.
— Cincinnati split first two home games, both decided by 3 points.
— Bengals are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS TY, all games with spread of 3 or less.
— Bengals have been outscored 67-36 in first half of games.
— Team total: under 4-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— Home team won four of last five series games.
— Seahawks lost 27-24/27-24 in last two trips to Cincinnati.
49ers (5-0) @ Browns (2-2)
— San Francisco scored 30-30-30-35-42 points in 5-0 start (4-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 71-21 in 2nd half.
— 49ers haven’t been on road since Week 2
— San Francisco has run ball for 156.4 yards/game.
— 49ers are 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road favorite.
— 49ers have 20 TD’s on 48 drives this year
— 49ers are 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +23 in turnovers (+9 in four games TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 12-1 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 8-1-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— QB Watson has bruised shoulder (check status)
— Cleveland gained total of 166 yards, lost 28-3 in game he missed.
— Browns scored 34-22-27 points in games when Watson played.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses.
— Last three games, Cleveland is minus-5 in turnovers (3-8).
— Browns have 77 first downs, their opponents only 37.
— Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
— Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
— Opponents have converted only 12-53 third down plays.
— Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight post-bye games.
— Home side won last four series games.
— 49ers lost 24-10/20-7, in last two visits to Cleveland.
— Last five series games stayed under the total.
Saints (3-2) @ Texans (2-3)
— Saints are 3-2 in first five games, allowing 15.2 ppg.
— Saints have only 7 offensive TD’s on 53 drives.
— Saints whacked New England 34-0 in Foxboro LW.
— Three of their five games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Saints have been outscored 13-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— NO is 7-8-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 5-0 in Saints’ games this season.
— Saints are 7-11-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
— Team total: under 4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
— Texans scored 37-30 points in wins (9-20-19 in losses)
— Houston outscored last three foes 42-7 in first half.
— Texans are 15-21-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
— Houston averaged 9.3/10.1/7.1 yards/pass attempt last three games.
— Opponents have converted 34-71 third down plays.
— Houston is 10-11-1 ATS last 22 games as a home underdog.
— Stroud is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 4-9-2 ATS last 15 games against NFC opponents.
— Houston is 12-7-2 ATS last 20 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Team total: under 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
— Home side won last five series games.
— Saints lost 24-6/23-10 in last two visits to Houston.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Colts (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-2)
— QB Richardson (shoulder) isn’t expected to play.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-16 as an NFL starter.
— He was 7-13 as Jaguars’ QB in 2019-20.
— Colts won/covered three of their last four games.
— Indy won both of its road games, 31-20/22-19.
— Indy has scored 21+ points in all five games.
— Colts are 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Colts are 8-7 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 4-0-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Jaguars won games in England the last two weeks.
— Jaguars scored 21-23-25 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Jaguars are 1-7 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— Jacksonville outrushed Buffalo 196-29 in LW’s 25-20 upset win
— Jaguars are 10-13 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Jacksonville converted 15 of last 32 third down plays.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +10 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 59-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 15-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: under 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Jaguars (-5) won 31-21 at Indy in Week 1.
— Jacksonville had two TD drives of less than 50 yards.
— Jaguars won four of last six series games.
— Colts are 0-8 SU/ATS in last eight visits to Jacksonville.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Panthers (0-5) @ Dolphins (4-1)
— Carolina lost its first five games (0-4-1 ATS).
— In Young’s four starts. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/4.0/5.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— Panthers are 19-52 on 3rd down in Young’s starts, 10-19 in Dalton’s start
— Opponents are only 17-55 on third down this year.
— Carolina is 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog (0-3 TY).
— Panthers are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC teams.
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— Panthers have been outscored 84-45 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— Miami won/covered four of first five games, scoring 36.2 ppg.
— Miami is 2-0 SU/ATS at home, scoring 14 TD’s on 23 drives.
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 24 TD’s on 54 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— That said, last two weeks, Dolphins were minus-5 in turnovers.
— Dolphins are 8-7 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Dolphins are 22-12 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
— Three of their five games went over the total.
— Tagovailoa is 25-14 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Dolphins won four of last six series games.
— Panthers are 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in last four visits to Miami.
Patriots (1-4) @ Raiders (2-3)
— Patriots lost their last two games by a combined 72-3.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Last three games, Patriots have one offensive TD on 38 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-29 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 10-8-1 ATS in their last 19 road games.
— Mac Jones is 17-20 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots were outgained 681-409.
— Patriots are 17-18-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a loss.
— AFC East teams are 7-5 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 4-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 5-0. Opponents’ team total: 3-2 over
— Garoppolo was a Patriot from 2014-16.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17-17 points in first five games.
— Under is 4-1 in Raider games this season.
— Las Vegas is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Raiders are 13-9-1 ATS last 23 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Raiders are 3-5 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
— Las Vegas converted only 10 of last 37 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 5-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Garoppolo is 42-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Team total: under 5-0. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— New England won six of last seven series games.
— Patriots are 3-2 SU/ATS in last five road series games.
— Patriots (+1.5) lost 30-24 here LY, their first visit to Las Vegas.
— Josh McDaniels was a New England assistant for 18 years.
Lions (4-1) @ Buccaneers (3-1)
— Detroit won/covered four of its five games.
— Lions are 2-0 on road: 21-20 at KC, 34-20 at Green Bay.
— This is their first outdoor daytime game this season.
— Lions outscored last three opponents 82-23 in first half.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 27-11-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit scored 16 TD’s on its last 42 drives.
— Goff is 60-49-1 as an NFL starter, 16-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 10-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11 in their loss.
— Bucs converted 27 of first 57 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay has allowed only 6 TD’s on 41 drives.
— since 2019, Buccaneers are 2-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Bucs have 10 takeaways in four games (+7 turnovers)
— Under is 3-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 3-6 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
— Mayfield is 35-40 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— NFC South teams are 4-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 2-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-0-1
— Teams split their last eight meetings.
— Tampa Bay won last meeting 47-7 back in 2020.
— Lions covered their last seven visits to Tampa.
Cardinals (1-4) @ Rams (2-3)
— Arizona is 1-4 SU, but they covered three of five games.
— Cards have outscored foes 78-58 in 1st half, were outscored 78-30 in 2nd half.
— Arizona gave up 31+ points in three of last four games.
— Cardinals have lost 15 of last 18 games SU (7-8 ATS in last 15).
— Cardinals are 19-11-1 ATS in last 31 NFC West road games (0-1 TY)
— QB Dobbs is 1-6 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 13 TD’s on 35 drives.
— Last four Cardinal games went over the total.
— Team total: over 4-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— LA scored 30-29 points in its wins, 23-16-14 in their losses.
— Rams were outscored 55-19 in 2nd half the last four weeks.
— Rams are 2-0 when they run ball for 90+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams are 17-32 on 3rd down in wins, 14-39 in losses.
— This is first time this season Rams are favored.
— Under McVay, Rams are 17-20 ATS as a home favorite.
— Stafford is 95-107-1 as an NFL starter, 21-14 with the Rams.
— Rams have only three takeaways in five games (minus-2 TO’s).
— Under McVay, Rams are 21-13-3 ATS in games coming of a loss.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-9 ATS this season.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1
— Rams won 12 of last 14 series games.
— Cardinals won last two visits to LA, 27-17/37-20.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Eagles (5-0) @ Jets (2-3)
— Eagles won road games by 5-14-9 points (3-0 ATS)
— Eagles won first five games (3-1-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25-34-23 points.
— Last four weeks, Eagles ran ball for 180.8 yards/game.
— Philly outscored last four opponents 65-36 in 2nd half.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 30-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-7 ATS as road favorites (3-0 TY).
— Eagles have 11 TD’s on their last 39 drives.
— Hurts is 30-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 14-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Team total: over 3-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Jets scored 22-31 points in wins, 10-10-20 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 74-36 in first half of games.
— Jets have gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6/5.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Gang Green is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Last three games, Jets converted 11-48 third down plays.
— Jets are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
— Jets have scored six TD’s, have 19 3/outs on 53 drives.
— Wilson is 9-17 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East underdogs are 2-3 ATS outside the division.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Team total: under 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
— Eagles are 12-0 SU against Jets, 6-0 ATS since 2003.
— Eagles won last three road series games, by 15-7-7 points.
Giants (1-4) @ Bills (3-2)
— Giants lost last three games, by 18-21-5 points.
— Giants have been outscored 94-19 in first half of their games.
— Giants are averaging only 255.2 yards/game this season.
— Big Blue lost 31-16 last week despite being +3 in turnovers.
— Under Daboll, Giants are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog (0-2 TY).
— Last three games, Giants were outscored 37-12 in second half.
— Last three games, Giants have one TD, nine 3/outs on 30 drives.
— Daniel Jones is 23-36-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 7-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-1
— Buffalo is back from England; they lost 25-20 to Jaguars there.
— Bills scored 38-37-48 points in wins, 16-20 in losses.
— Bills have converted 31-64 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 26-19-1 ATS in last 46 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo has outscored opponents 88-38 in first half.
— Bills outscored last four foes 68-23 in second half.
— Bills are 13-6 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
— Josh Allen is 50-30 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 7-3 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1
— Giants won three of last four series games.
— Giants won 24-10/38-21 in last two visits to Buffalo.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Monday’s game
Cowboys (3-2) @ Chargers (2-2)
— Three Dallas wins were by a combined score of 108-13.
— Dallas scored 16-10 points in losses, 40-30-38 in wins.
— Cowboys gave up 222-170 YR in their two losses.
— Dallas is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Cowboys are +8 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Dallas is 9-1 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
— Dallas allowed 400-421 TY in losses; 171-215-253 in wins.
— QB Prescott is 66-42 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 7-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Chargers scored 34-24-28-24 points in splitting four games.
— Last three games, Chargers converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— Chargers are 3-2-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog.
— Bolts are 8-4-3 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Chargers are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Herbert is 27-27 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 13 TD’s on 41 drives, allowed 12 TD’s on 42 drives.
— Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 10-22 in losses.
— Over is 11-8-1 in their last 20 home games.
— AFC West teams are 5-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Chargers OC Kellen Moore was fired LY by the Cowboys.
— Chargers won four of last six series games.
— Road team covered five of last six meetings.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
