NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !
- Thread starter Cnotes53
- Start date
- Sep 10, 2018
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NFL
Week 7
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Week 7
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Trend Report
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Most-watched college football games last weekend:
7.04M people— Oregon-Washington
6.43M— USC-Notre Dame
4.38M— Texas A&M-Tennessee
3.55M— Indiana-Michigan
3.43M— Arkansas-Alabama
3.29M— Stanford-Colorado
Tweet of the Day
“It was after the game, and certainly that was a gut-wrenching and emotional loss. I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off……..before anyone starts the narrative like the head football coach is frustrated and lost his poise and all that — no, I care. I care about these kids, and I was really upset on Saturday night because I didn’t do enough to help them get over the hump and win the football game.”
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer
Wednesday’s quiz
Where did 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy play his college football?
Tuesday’s quiz
Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers
Monday’s quiz
In the TV show CSI, Jaclyn Smith played Hodges’ mother; she was one of the stars of Charlie’s Angels, a very popular TV show in the late 70’s.
**************************************
Game was 2-0 after five innings; Arizona’s bullpen got hammered.
Kyle Schwarber homered twice for Philadelphia.
Phillies lead best-of-7 series, 2-0
— Fan in the stands in Philadelphia had a #21 Phillies jersey, a Bake McBride jersey; the guy last played for the Phillies in 1981. McBride was a very fast outfielder, a .299 lifetime hitter, but it is time for that fan to buy himself a new jersey.
— NFL Draft is a fascinating process:
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick of the 2017 Draft; he might be wind up being the best quarterback of all time.
QB Josh Rosen was the 10th pick of the 2018 Draft: he is one of the biggest busts in draft history, going 3-13 as a starter for Cardinals/Dolphins. He was out of the NFL at age 24.
NFL teams are worth $5B or so; how do you make a mistake like that?
— Only five of the 30 NFL teams who played last week scored more than 21 points; quality of NFL offenses is way down so far this season. Under was 12-2-1 in Week 6 games.
Young QB’s get rushed into the lineup, coaches are too conservative in close games. Defenses definitely have the upper hand so far this season.
— Texas A&M’s football team is 4-3 this season, after losing close games to Alabama, Tennessee the last two weeks. Last two years, Aggies are 0-6 in true road games; the natives are restless.
There are rumors that Texas A&M may tell Fisher to take a hike, but if they do that this year, they have to pay him $67.5M to go away. Imagine getting paid $67.5M to go away?
— Flag football is going to be a sport at the 2028 Summer Olympics, which will he held in Los Angeles. Curious how many different countries will field team for that event.
— Fairfield basketball coach Jay Young quit three weeks before the Stags are going to open the season at Boston College. Young was 50-73 in four years at Fairfield; assistant coach Chris Casey will serve as interim coach this season.
— Word of the Day: palaver— Empty nonsense or useless talk.
— Field position is important in the NFL; if your defense/special teams are doing really well, they will create opportunities for the offense to work on a short field, so they have to do less to score a touchdown.
So far this season, teams with most TD drives shorter than 60 yards:
8— Bills
7— Commanders
6— Lions, Jaguars, Chargers, Dolphins, 49ers
— So far this season, teams with most TD drives allowed shorter than 60 yards:
8— Panthers
7— Broncos, Raiders
6— Dolphins
— Not only has New England allowed five TD drives shorter than 60 yards, their offense has also given up four TD’s to opposing defenses.
— Offenses with most touchdown plays of 20+ yards:
10— Dolphins
8— Lions
6— Bears, Jaguars
— Defenses with most touchdown plays allowed of 20+ yards:
9— Broncos
7— Commanders
5— Colts, Buccaneers
— Brian Hoyer is a backup QB for the Raiders; he played the second half against New England Sunday, going 6-10/102 yards as Las Vegas held on for a 21-17 win.
Hoyer has been in the NFL for 15 years, starting 40 games (16-24). Last time Hoyer started a game his team won was in 2016, when his Chicago Bears beat Detroit 17-14.
— There are 11 unbeaten teams left in college football.
— Michael Jordan’s teams played 30 games against teams with Sherman Douglas on them; Jordan’s teams went 30-0 in those games. That is the most wins without a loss by one player over another in NBA history.
— Chicago Bears’ QB Justin Fields dislocated his right thumb Sunday; he may be out for year, no one is really saying, but obviously that is a especially bad injury for a quarterback.
Bears’ backup QB is rookie Tyson Bagent, who played college football for Shepherd U in West Virginia, a D-II school. He is going to get a chance to show his stuff the rest of the season.
If the season ended right now, the Bears would have the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft; they have Carolina’s pick next year. Will they move on from Fields?
— Genius of the Day: South Carolina football coach Shane Beamer broke his foot Saturday, when he kicked something in frustration after his Gamecocks lost 41-39 to Florida, blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Not good.
Most-watched college football games last weekend:
7.04M people— Oregon-Washington
6.43M— USC-Notre Dame
4.38M— Texas A&M-Tennessee
3.55M— Indiana-Michigan
3.43M— Arkansas-Alabama
3.29M— Stanford-Colorado
Tweet of the Day
“It was after the game, and certainly that was a gut-wrenching and emotional loss. I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off……..before anyone starts the narrative like the head football coach is frustrated and lost his poise and all that — no, I care. I care about these kids, and I was really upset on Saturday night because I didn’t do enough to help them get over the hump and win the football game.”
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer
Wednesday’s quiz
Where did 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy play his college football?
Tuesday’s quiz
Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers
Monday’s quiz
In the TV show CSI, Jaclyn Smith played Hodges’ mother; she was one of the stars of Charlie’s Angels, a very popular TV show in the late 70’s.
**************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings………
— Phillies 10, Diamondbacks 0Game was 2-0 after five innings; Arizona’s bullpen got hammered.
Kyle Schwarber homered twice for Philadelphia.
Phillies lead best-of-7 series, 2-0
— Fan in the stands in Philadelphia had a #21 Phillies jersey, a Bake McBride jersey; the guy last played for the Phillies in 1981. McBride was a very fast outfielder, a .299 lifetime hitter, but it is time for that fan to buy himself a new jersey.
— NFL Draft is a fascinating process:
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick of the 2017 Draft; he might be wind up being the best quarterback of all time.
QB Josh Rosen was the 10th pick of the 2018 Draft: he is one of the biggest busts in draft history, going 3-13 as a starter for Cardinals/Dolphins. He was out of the NFL at age 24.
NFL teams are worth $5B or so; how do you make a mistake like that?
— Only five of the 30 NFL teams who played last week scored more than 21 points; quality of NFL offenses is way down so far this season. Under was 12-2-1 in Week 6 games.
Young QB’s get rushed into the lineup, coaches are too conservative in close games. Defenses definitely have the upper hand so far this season.
— Texas A&M’s football team is 4-3 this season, after losing close games to Alabama, Tennessee the last two weeks. Last two years, Aggies are 0-6 in true road games; the natives are restless.
There are rumors that Texas A&M may tell Fisher to take a hike, but if they do that this year, they have to pay him $67.5M to go away. Imagine getting paid $67.5M to go away?
— Flag football is going to be a sport at the 2028 Summer Olympics, which will he held in Los Angeles. Curious how many different countries will field team for that event.
— Fairfield basketball coach Jay Young quit three weeks before the Stags are going to open the season at Boston College. Young was 50-73 in four years at Fairfield; assistant coach Chris Casey will serve as interim coach this season.
— Word of the Day: palaver— Empty nonsense or useless talk.
— Field position is important in the NFL; if your defense/special teams are doing really well, they will create opportunities for the offense to work on a short field, so they have to do less to score a touchdown.
So far this season, teams with most TD drives shorter than 60 yards:
8— Bills
7— Commanders
6— Lions, Jaguars, Chargers, Dolphins, 49ers
— So far this season, teams with most TD drives allowed shorter than 60 yards:
8— Panthers
7— Broncos, Raiders
6— Dolphins
— Not only has New England allowed five TD drives shorter than 60 yards, their offense has also given up four TD’s to opposing defenses.
— Offenses with most touchdown plays of 20+ yards:
10— Dolphins
8— Lions
6— Bears, Jaguars
— Defenses with most touchdown plays allowed of 20+ yards:
9— Broncos
7— Commanders
5— Colts, Buccaneers
— Brian Hoyer is a backup QB for the Raiders; he played the second half against New England Sunday, going 6-10/102 yards as Las Vegas held on for a 21-17 win.
Hoyer has been in the NFL for 15 years, starting 40 games (16-24). Last time Hoyer started a game his team won was in 2016, when his Chicago Bears beat Detroit 17-14.
— There are 11 unbeaten teams left in college football.
— Michael Jordan’s teams played 30 games against teams with Sherman Douglas on them; Jordan’s teams went 30-0 in those games. That is the most wins without a loss by one player over another in NBA history.
— Chicago Bears’ QB Justin Fields dislocated his right thumb Sunday; he may be out for year, no one is really saying, but obviously that is a especially bad injury for a quarterback.
Bears’ backup QB is rookie Tyson Bagent, who played college football for Shepherd U in West Virginia, a D-II school. He is going to get a chance to show his stuff the rest of the season.
If the season ended right now, the Bears would have the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft; they have Carolina’s pick next year. Will they move on from Fields?
— Genius of the Day: South Carolina football coach Shane Beamer broke his foot Saturday, when he kicked something in frustration after his Gamecocks lost 41-39 to Florida, blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Not good.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,436
- 17
- 38
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Jaguars (4-2) @ Saints (3-3)
— Jaguars won/covered their last three games.
— Jacksonville outscored last three opponents 49-13 in first half.
— Jaguars scored 21-23-25-37 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Jaguars are 8-16 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jaguars are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win (2-1 TY).
— Jacksonville won only true road game, 31-21 (-5) @ Indianapolis.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +13 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 60-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 16-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
— New Orleans lost three of last four games, scoring 17-9-13 in losses.
— Saints have only 8 offensive TD’s on 63 drives.
— Saints outgained last two opponents, 734-453.
— Saints are 2-0 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have been outscored 13-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— NO is 7-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 6-0 in Saints’ games this season.
— Saints are 16-9-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
— Saints won/covered last four series games.
— Jaguars lost 38-27/41-24 in last two visits to New Orleans.
Sunday’s games
Falcons (3-3) @ Buccaneers (3-2)
— Falcons scored 24-25-21 points in their wins, 6-7-16 in losses.
— Atlanta lost only true road game, 20-6 (+3) at Detroit.
— Falcons are 3-3, but haven’t led (0-5-1) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 73-36 in first half of games.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-11-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Ridder is 5-5 as an NFL starting QB, 0-4 on the road.
— Atlanta is 13-22-2 ATS in last 37 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 8-4 ATS in last 12 NFC South road games.
— Falcons allowed three TD’s last week, on drives of 11-47-24 yards.
— Under is 12-2 in their last 13 games overall, 5-1 TY.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-2-2
— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6 in losses.
— Bucs have 10 takeaways in five games (+6 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46 in losses.
— Tampa Bay has allowed 8 TD’s on 50 drives.
— Buccaneers are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as home favorites.
— Bucs are 7-5-1 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 5-6 ATS in last 11 NFC South home games.
— Mayfield is 35-41 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: over 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-0-1
— Buccaneers won six of last seven series games.
— Falcons are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Tampa.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Raiders (3-3) @ Bears (1-5)
— QB Garoppolo (back) didn’t play 2nd half LW (check status).
— Hoyer was 6-10/102 in 2nd half LW; he is 16-24 as a starter.
— Hoyer’s last win as a starter was back in 2016, playing for Chicago.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 in Week 4 loss at Chargers.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17-17-21 points in first six games.
— Under is 5-1 in Raider games this season.
— Last two years, Las Vegas was 0-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Raiders are 14-9-1 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Raiders are 4-5 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Las Vegas converted 13 of last 29 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 6-11 ATS outside the division.
— Garoppolo is 43-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Team total: under 6-0. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
— QB Fields dislocated his thumb LW; rookie Bagent is back-up.
— Bagent was 10-14/83 passing LW; this would be his first NFL start.
— Chicago lost five of first six games, giving up 31 ppg.
— Last three games, Bears outscored opponents, 54-22 in first half.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 107-58 in second half.
— Bears are 10-30 SU/14-24-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
— Chicago is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as home underdogs.
— Fields is 6-25 SU as an NFL starter; Bagent is 0-0.
— Chicago is 14-24-3 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their six games went over the total.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
— Bears won four of last six series games.
— Raiders are 1-2 SU/ATS in last three visits to Chicago; all three games were decided by 3 or less points.
Browns (3-2) @ Colts (3-3)
— QB Watson has bruised shoulder (check status)
— Backup QB Walker was 18-34/192 with 2 INT’s in LW’s upset of 49ers.
— Browns scored 34-22-27 points in games when Watson played.
— Browns gave up 3-3-17 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses.
— Cleveland lost only road game, 26-22 (-2.5) at Pittsburgh.
— Last four games, Cleveland is minus-6 in turnovers (4-10).
— Browns have 95 first downs, their opponents only 52.
— since 2013, Cleveland is 4-11 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 TY).
— Cleveland is 11-18-2 ATS in last 31 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Opponents have converted only 15-65 third down plays.
— Under is 4-1 in Cleveland games the season.
— AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Last three weeks, Colts were outscored 47-16 in first half.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-17 as an NFL starter, 1-1 TY.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
— Indy lost two of its three home games TY.
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all six games.
— since 2020, Colts are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2013, Colts are 41-29-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Colts are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 4-2 in Indy’s six games this season.
— AFC South teams are 9-6 ATS outside the division.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 4-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
— Colts won seven of last nine series games.
— Browns lost 31-28/17-13 in last two visits to Indianapolis.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Lions (5-1) @ Ravens (4-2)
— Detroit won/covered its last four games.
— Lions are 3-0 on road: 21-20 at KC, 34-20 at GB, 20-6 at Tampa.
— Lions outscored last three opponents 92-26 in first half.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 28-11-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit converted 20 of last 43 third down plays.
— Last three games, Lions are +5 in turnovers (6-1).
— Goff is 61-49-1 as an NFL starter, 17-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 11-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only five TD’s on 69 drives.
— Baltimore is 14-2 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Ravens are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Ravens are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +2 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 50-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 5-1 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1
— Ravens won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Lions lost 44-20/48-3 in last two visits to Baltimore.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Bills (4-2) @ Patriots (1-5)
— Last two games, Buffalo scored one first half TD on 11 drives.
— Bills allowed 10-3-20-9 points in wins, 22-25 in losses.
— Bills have converted 37-76 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 26-20-1 ATS in last 47 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo is 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Bills outscored last five foes 82-26 in second half.
— Bills are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 AFC East road games.
— Josh Allen is 51-30 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-14-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1
— Patriots lost their last three games by a combined 93-20.
— Patriots were outscored 62-6 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Last four games, Patriots have 3 offensive TD’s on 46 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-30 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC East home games.
— Mac Jones is 17-21 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots were outgained 1.029-668.
— Patriots are 17-19-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 6-0. Opponents’ team total: 3-3 over
— Buffalo won six of last seven series games.
— Bills are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Commanders (3-3) @ Giants (1-5)
— Washington is 1-3 giving up 33+ points, 2-0 if they allow less.
— Commanders’ TD drives last week: 11-47-24 yards.
— Commanders are 3-0 ATS on road, scoring 35-31-24 points.
— since 2018, Washington is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Washington is 6-4 ATS in last ten NFC East road games.
— Last four weeks, Commanders were outscored 63-37 in 1st half.
— Over is 3-2 in Washington’s last five games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 4-3 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Team total: 4-2 over. Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
— Backup QB Taylor was 24-36/200 passing in LW’s 14-9 loss.
— Giants were 10-19 on 3rd down LW (26-73 first five games)
— Giants lost last four games, by 18-21-5-5 points.
— Giants were outscored 94-25 in first half of their games.
— Giants are averaging only 265.5 yards/game this season.
— Big Blue lost last last two games, despite being +5 in turnovers.
— Giants are 9-20 ATS in last 20 games as a home underdog.
— Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-15 in second half.
— Last four games, Giants have one TD, 12 3/outs on 39 drives.
— Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC East home games.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
— Giants are 5-2-1 SU in last eight series games.
— Washington is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to the Garden State.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Cardinals (1-5) @ Seahawks (3-2)
— Arizona is 0-3 SU/ATS last three games, losing by 19-14-17 points.
— Cardinals have been outscored 98-30 in 2nd half of games.
— Last five games, Arizona gave up 28.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 16 of last 19 games SU (7-9 ATS in last 16).
— Cardinals are 19-12-1 ATS in last 32 NFC West road games (0-2 TY)
— QB Dobbs is 1-7 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 15 TD’s on 44 drives.
— Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3
— Seahawks scored 37-37-24 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 40-6 in second half of their losses.
— Seahawks won/covered three of last four games.
— Seattle have converted only 18-55 third down plays.
— Seattle is 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC West home games.
— Seattle is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Seahawks are 14-11 ATS in last 25 games after a loss.
— Geno Smith is 25-31 as an NFL starter, 13-13 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 19-21 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— Seahawks won eight of last 11 series games.
— Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Seattle.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Steelers (2-2) @ Rams (3-3)
— QB Pickett was banged up before bye (check status)
— Pickett is 10-7 as an NFL starter; backup Trubisky is 31-26.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
— Last two games, Pittsburgh was outscored 26-3 in first half.
— Steelers have been outgained by 121 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in last eight games decided by 8 or less points.
— Four of five Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)
— Pitt is 28-15-1 ATS in last 44 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Steelers won their last six post-bye games (4-2 ATS)
— Team total: under 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14 in their losses.
— Rams’ top two RB’s (Williams, Rivers) are expected to miss this game.
— Rams are 3-0 when they run ball for 90+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams are 21-44 on 3rd down in wins, 14-39 in losses.
— Under McVay, Rams are 18-20 ATS as a home favorite.
— Stafford is 96-107-1 as an NFL starter, 22-14 with the Rams.
— Rams have led only once this year (1-4-1) at halftime.
— Rams are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games coming of a win.
— Under is 3-1 in Rams’ last four games.
— NFC West teams are 9-3-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1
— Steelers won/covered last four series games, by average of 24-11.
— Steelers haven’t played in LA/Anaheim since 1994.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Chargers (2-3) @ Chiefs (5-1)
— Chargers are 2-3 SU; all five games were decided by 7 or less points.
— Last four games, Chargers converted only 17-53 third down plays.
— Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 AFC West road games.
— Chargers have five takeaways (+3) in wins, one (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 27-28 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 15 TD’s on 51 drives, allowed 14 TD’s on 51 drives.
— Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 15-35 in losses.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 8-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last three Charger games stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 7-9 ATS.
— Chiefs won last five games, by 8-31-3-7-11 points (4-1 ATS).
— Chiefs converted 30 of last 54 third down plays.
— KC has outscored opponents 101-28 in first half.
— KC has been outscored 50-46 in second half.
— KC is 12-14 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs held last five opponents under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in last ten AFC West home games.
— Mahomes is 80-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
— Chiefs won 15 of last 18 series games SU.
— Chargers are 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Arrowhead.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten meetings.
Packers (2-3) @ Broncos (1-5)
— Last three weeks, Packers were outscored 54-6 in first half.
— Last three weeks, Packers outscored foes 45-14 in 2nd half.
— Green Bay converted 7 of last 23 third down plays.
— Last three games, Packers are minus-4 in turnovers.
— Packers are 13-12-2 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 38-0 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Over is 3-2 in their games this season.
— Green Bay is 3-5 SU/3-3-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Broncos are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS so far this season.
— Broncos gave up 36.6 ppg in their last five games.
— Denver actually led three of its six games at halftime.
— Denver has been outscored 99-62 in 2nd half of games.
— Last four weeks, Broncos were outgained by 204 yards/game.
— Broncos are 5-14-1 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Denver is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs NFC opponents.
— Four of last four Bronco games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 118-76-1 as an NFL starter, 5-16 with Denver.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
— Green Bay won/covered four of last five series games.
— Packers split last two visits to Denver (underdog won both).
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Dolphins (5-1) @ Eagles (5-1)
— Miami won/covered five of first six games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Last three games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (0-6).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 30 TD’s on 65 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Dolphins are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— Dolphins are 23-12 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
— Four of their six games went over the total.
— Tagovailoa is 26-14 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East teams are 9-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
— Eagles lost 20-14 to Jets last week, after a 5-0 start.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 4-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Philly won first five games (3-1-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25-34-23 points.
— Eagles ran ball for 80 yards LW (previous four weeks, 180.8 yards/game).
— Last two weeks, Eagles didn’t score TD in 2nd half (outscored 11-6).
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 30-14 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS as home favorites (0-1-1 TY).
— Eagles are 11-14 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— Hurts is 30-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
— Miami won last two series games, 37-31/20-19.
— Dolphins split their last two visits to Philadelphia.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under the total.
Monday’s game
49ers (5-1) @ Vikings (2-4)
— 49ers were outgained 334-215 in LW’s 19-17 loss in Cleveland.
— SF scored 30-30-30-35-42 points in 5-0 start (4-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 78-33 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 146.7 yards/game.
— 49ers are 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite.
— 49ers have 22 TD’s on 60 drives this year
— 49ers are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +24 in turnovers (+10 TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 12-2 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 9-3-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
— Vikings are 2-4 this year, with losses by 3-6-4-7 points.
— LY, Minnesota was 11-0 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has turned ball over 13 times already (minus-7).
— Vikings allowed 13 points in both their wins, 27.3 ppg in losses.
— Vikings are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Minnesota is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home dog (0-2 TY).
— Cousins is 75-70-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Star WR Jefferson is on IR; Vikings were 2-13 on 3rd down without him LW.
— Under is 5-1 in Minnesota games this season.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-1
— Home side won last six series games.
— 49ers are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Jaguars (4-2) @ Saints (3-3)
— Jaguars won/covered their last three games.
— Jacksonville outscored last three opponents 49-13 in first half.
— Jaguars scored 21-23-25-37 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Jaguars are 8-16 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jaguars are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win (2-1 TY).
— Jacksonville won only true road game, 31-21 (-5) @ Indianapolis.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +13 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 60-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 16-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
— New Orleans lost three of last four games, scoring 17-9-13 in losses.
— Saints have only 8 offensive TD’s on 63 drives.
— Saints outgained last two opponents, 734-453.
— Saints are 2-0 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have been outscored 13-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— NO is 7-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 6-0 in Saints’ games this season.
— Saints are 16-9-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
— Saints won/covered last four series games.
— Jaguars lost 38-27/41-24 in last two visits to New Orleans.
Sunday’s games
Falcons (3-3) @ Buccaneers (3-2)
— Falcons scored 24-25-21 points in their wins, 6-7-16 in losses.
— Atlanta lost only true road game, 20-6 (+3) at Detroit.
— Falcons are 3-3, but haven’t led (0-5-1) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 73-36 in first half of games.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-11-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Ridder is 5-5 as an NFL starting QB, 0-4 on the road.
— Atlanta is 13-22-2 ATS in last 37 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 8-4 ATS in last 12 NFC South road games.
— Falcons allowed three TD’s last week, on drives of 11-47-24 yards.
— Under is 12-2 in their last 13 games overall, 5-1 TY.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-2-2
— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6 in losses.
— Bucs have 10 takeaways in five games (+6 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46 in losses.
— Tampa Bay has allowed 8 TD’s on 50 drives.
— Buccaneers are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as home favorites.
— Bucs are 7-5-1 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 5-6 ATS in last 11 NFC South home games.
— Mayfield is 35-41 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: over 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-0-1
— Buccaneers won six of last seven series games.
— Falcons are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Tampa.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Raiders (3-3) @ Bears (1-5)
— QB Garoppolo (back) didn’t play 2nd half LW (check status).
— Hoyer was 6-10/102 in 2nd half LW; he is 16-24 as a starter.
— Hoyer’s last win as a starter was back in 2016, playing for Chicago.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 in Week 4 loss at Chargers.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17-17-21 points in first six games.
— Under is 5-1 in Raider games this season.
— Last two years, Las Vegas was 0-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Raiders are 14-9-1 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Raiders are 4-5 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Las Vegas converted 13 of last 29 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 6-11 ATS outside the division.
— Garoppolo is 43-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Team total: under 6-0. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
— QB Fields dislocated his thumb LW; rookie Bagent is back-up.
— Bagent was 10-14/83 passing LW; this would be his first NFL start.
— Chicago lost five of first six games, giving up 31 ppg.
— Last three games, Bears outscored opponents, 54-22 in first half.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 107-58 in second half.
— Bears are 10-30 SU/14-24-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
— Chicago is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as home underdogs.
— Fields is 6-25 SU as an NFL starter; Bagent is 0-0.
— Chicago is 14-24-3 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their six games went over the total.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
— Bears won four of last six series games.
— Raiders are 1-2 SU/ATS in last three visits to Chicago; all three games were decided by 3 or less points.
Browns (3-2) @ Colts (3-3)
— QB Watson has bruised shoulder (check status)
— Backup QB Walker was 18-34/192 with 2 INT’s in LW’s upset of 49ers.
— Browns scored 34-22-27 points in games when Watson played.
— Browns gave up 3-3-17 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses.
— Cleveland lost only road game, 26-22 (-2.5) at Pittsburgh.
— Last four games, Cleveland is minus-6 in turnovers (4-10).
— Browns have 95 first downs, their opponents only 52.
— since 2013, Cleveland is 4-11 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 TY).
— Cleveland is 11-18-2 ATS in last 31 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Opponents have converted only 15-65 third down plays.
— Under is 4-1 in Cleveland games the season.
— AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Last three weeks, Colts were outscored 47-16 in first half.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-17 as an NFL starter, 1-1 TY.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
— Indy lost two of its three home games TY.
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all six games.
— since 2020, Colts are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2013, Colts are 41-29-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Colts are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 4-2 in Indy’s six games this season.
— AFC South teams are 9-6 ATS outside the division.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 4-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
— Colts won seven of last nine series games.
— Browns lost 31-28/17-13 in last two visits to Indianapolis.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Lions (5-1) @ Ravens (4-2)
— Detroit won/covered its last four games.
— Lions are 3-0 on road: 21-20 at KC, 34-20 at GB, 20-6 at Tampa.
— Lions outscored last three opponents 92-26 in first half.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 28-11-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit converted 20 of last 43 third down plays.
— Last three games, Lions are +5 in turnovers (6-1).
— Goff is 61-49-1 as an NFL starter, 17-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 11-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only five TD’s on 69 drives.
— Baltimore is 14-2 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Ravens are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Ravens are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +2 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 50-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 5-1 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1
— Ravens won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Lions lost 44-20/48-3 in last two visits to Baltimore.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Bills (4-2) @ Patriots (1-5)
— Last two games, Buffalo scored one first half TD on 11 drives.
— Bills allowed 10-3-20-9 points in wins, 22-25 in losses.
— Bills have converted 37-76 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 26-20-1 ATS in last 47 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo is 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Bills outscored last five foes 82-26 in second half.
— Bills are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 AFC East road games.
— Josh Allen is 51-30 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-14-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1
— Patriots lost their last three games by a combined 93-20.
— Patriots were outscored 62-6 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Last four games, Patriots have 3 offensive TD’s on 46 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-30 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC East home games.
— Mac Jones is 17-21 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots were outgained 1.029-668.
— Patriots are 17-19-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 6-0. Opponents’ team total: 3-3 over
— Buffalo won six of last seven series games.
— Bills are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Commanders (3-3) @ Giants (1-5)
— Washington is 1-3 giving up 33+ points, 2-0 if they allow less.
— Commanders’ TD drives last week: 11-47-24 yards.
— Commanders are 3-0 ATS on road, scoring 35-31-24 points.
— since 2018, Washington is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Washington is 6-4 ATS in last ten NFC East road games.
— Last four weeks, Commanders were outscored 63-37 in 1st half.
— Over is 3-2 in Washington’s last five games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 4-3 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Team total: 4-2 over. Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
— Backup QB Taylor was 24-36/200 passing in LW’s 14-9 loss.
— Giants were 10-19 on 3rd down LW (26-73 first five games)
— Giants lost last four games, by 18-21-5-5 points.
— Giants were outscored 94-25 in first half of their games.
— Giants are averaging only 265.5 yards/game this season.
— Big Blue lost last last two games, despite being +5 in turnovers.
— Giants are 9-20 ATS in last 20 games as a home underdog.
— Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-15 in second half.
— Last four games, Giants have one TD, 12 3/outs on 39 drives.
— Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC East home games.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
— Giants are 5-2-1 SU in last eight series games.
— Washington is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to the Garden State.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Cardinals (1-5) @ Seahawks (3-2)
— Arizona is 0-3 SU/ATS last three games, losing by 19-14-17 points.
— Cardinals have been outscored 98-30 in 2nd half of games.
— Last five games, Arizona gave up 28.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 16 of last 19 games SU (7-9 ATS in last 16).
— Cardinals are 19-12-1 ATS in last 32 NFC West road games (0-2 TY)
— QB Dobbs is 1-7 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 15 TD’s on 44 drives.
— Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3
— Seahawks scored 37-37-24 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 40-6 in second half of their losses.
— Seahawks won/covered three of last four games.
— Seattle have converted only 18-55 third down plays.
— Seattle is 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC West home games.
— Seattle is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Seahawks are 14-11 ATS in last 25 games after a loss.
— Geno Smith is 25-31 as an NFL starter, 13-13 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 19-21 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— Seahawks won eight of last 11 series games.
— Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Seattle.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Steelers (2-2) @ Rams (3-3)
— QB Pickett was banged up before bye (check status)
— Pickett is 10-7 as an NFL starter; backup Trubisky is 31-26.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
— Last two games, Pittsburgh was outscored 26-3 in first half.
— Steelers have been outgained by 121 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in last eight games decided by 8 or less points.
— Four of five Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)
— Pitt is 28-15-1 ATS in last 44 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Steelers won their last six post-bye games (4-2 ATS)
— Team total: under 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
— LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14 in their losses.
— Rams’ top two RB’s (Williams, Rivers) are expected to miss this game.
— Rams are 3-0 when they run ball for 90+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams are 21-44 on 3rd down in wins, 14-39 in losses.
— Under McVay, Rams are 18-20 ATS as a home favorite.
— Stafford is 96-107-1 as an NFL starter, 22-14 with the Rams.
— Rams have led only once this year (1-4-1) at halftime.
— Rams are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games coming of a win.
— Under is 3-1 in Rams’ last four games.
— NFC West teams are 9-3-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1
— Steelers won/covered last four series games, by average of 24-11.
— Steelers haven’t played in LA/Anaheim since 1994.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Chargers (2-3) @ Chiefs (5-1)
— Chargers are 2-3 SU; all five games were decided by 7 or less points.
— Last four games, Chargers converted only 17-53 third down plays.
— Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 AFC West road games.
— Chargers have five takeaways (+3) in wins, one (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 27-28 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 15 TD’s on 51 drives, allowed 14 TD’s on 51 drives.
— Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 15-35 in losses.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 8-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last three Charger games stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 7-9 ATS.
— Chiefs won last five games, by 8-31-3-7-11 points (4-1 ATS).
— Chiefs converted 30 of last 54 third down plays.
— KC has outscored opponents 101-28 in first half.
— KC has been outscored 50-46 in second half.
— KC is 12-14 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs held last five opponents under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in last ten AFC West home games.
— Mahomes is 80-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
— Chiefs won 15 of last 18 series games SU.
— Chargers are 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Arrowhead.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten meetings.
Packers (2-3) @ Broncos (1-5)
— Last three weeks, Packers were outscored 54-6 in first half.
— Last three weeks, Packers outscored foes 45-14 in 2nd half.
— Green Bay converted 7 of last 23 third down plays.
— Last three games, Packers are minus-4 in turnovers.
— Packers are 13-12-2 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 38-0 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Over is 3-2 in their games this season.
— Green Bay is 3-5 SU/3-3-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
— Broncos are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS so far this season.
— Broncos gave up 36.6 ppg in their last five games.
— Denver actually led three of its six games at halftime.
— Denver has been outscored 99-62 in 2nd half of games.
— Last four weeks, Broncos were outgained by 204 yards/game.
— Broncos are 5-14-1 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Denver is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs NFC opponents.
— Four of last four Bronco games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 118-76-1 as an NFL starter, 5-16 with Denver.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
— Green Bay won/covered four of last five series games.
— Packers split last two visits to Denver (underdog won both).
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Dolphins (5-1) @ Eagles (5-1)
— Miami won/covered five of first six games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Last three games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (0-6).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 30 TD’s on 65 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Dolphins are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— Dolphins are 23-12 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
— Four of their six games went over the total.
— Tagovailoa is 26-14 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East teams are 9-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
— Eagles lost 20-14 to Jets last week, after a 5-0 start.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 4-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Philly won first five games (3-1-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25-34-23 points.
— Eagles ran ball for 80 yards LW (previous four weeks, 180.8 yards/game).
— Last two weeks, Eagles didn’t score TD in 2nd half (outscored 11-6).
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 30-14 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS as home favorites (0-1-1 TY).
— Eagles are 11-14 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— Hurts is 30-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
— Miami won last two series games, 37-31/20-19.
— Dolphins split their last two visits to Philadelphia.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under the total.
Monday’s game
49ers (5-1) @ Vikings (2-4)
— 49ers were outgained 334-215 in LW’s 19-17 loss in Cleveland.
— SF scored 30-30-30-35-42 points in 5-0 start (4-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 78-33 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 146.7 yards/game.
— 49ers are 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite.
— 49ers have 22 TD’s on 60 drives this year
— 49ers are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +24 in turnovers (+10 TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 12-2 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 9-3-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
— Vikings are 2-4 this year, with losses by 3-6-4-7 points.
— LY, Minnesota was 11-0 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has turned ball over 13 times already (minus-7).
— Vikings allowed 13 points in both their wins, 27.3 ppg in losses.
— Vikings are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Minnesota is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home dog (0-2 TY).
— Cousins is 75-70-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Star WR Jefferson is on IR; Vikings were 2-13 on 3rd down without him LW.
— Under is 5-1 in Minnesota games this season.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-1
— Home side won last six series games.
— 49ers are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,876— Tua Tagovailoa, Mia
1,679— Kirk Cousins, Minn
1,677— Matthew Stafford, Rams
1,660— CJ Stroud, Hous
1,618— Jared Goff, Det
1,593— Patrick Mahomes, KC
Tweet of the Day
“We’re all tied together. It’s a journey that we’re experiencing together. Somebody will get the statistics from it, but none of those statistics are worth anything if you don’t have a full support from your players across the board, all 11, and then it goes down to the organization and all those things combined. But I know this, our players run a lot of plays that I have a lot of history with, and it looks different, and that’s because of hard work and unbelievable abilities.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel
Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; what was their name back then?
Wednesday’s quiz
49ers’ QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.
Tuesday’s quiz
Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers
************************************
Jose Altuve homered; Astros led 5-0 in 4th inning.
Cristian Javier got 17 outs, allowed only two runs.
Texas leads series 2-1; road team won all three games.
— New Jersey Jets traded WR Mecole Hardman to Kansas City, for two draft picks, a 6th and 7th round pick. Hardman had previously won two Super Bowl rings playing with the Chiefs, but he signed with the Jets as a free agent last spring.
— 49ers QB Brock Purdy is earning $870,000 this season; there are 20 starting QB’s in the NFL who make more than $870,000 PER GAME!!!!
— According to kenpom.com the top six college hoop teams to start this season:
1- Purdue
2- Kansas
3- Houston
4- UConn
5- Gonzaga
6- Arizona
— Justin Minaya is a 6-7 forward who is trying to make the Portland Trailblazers; his father is Omar Minaya, who used to be general manager of the New York Mets. Justin Minaya played his college ball at both South Carolina and Providence.
— NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder likes to accumulate draft choices; over the next seven drafts, the Thunder has 37 (37!!!!) draft picks. Seeing how rosters are 15 players and the Thunder was halfway decent (40-42) last year, it is unclear what they’ll do with all that draft capital.
I mean, in 2029, the Thunder has seven second round draft picks, and a first round pick.
— Movie of the Day: Percy vs Goliath (2020)— A Canadian farmer takes on a giant corporation after their GMOs interfere with his crops. As he speaks out against the company’s business practices, he realizes he is representing thousands of other disenfranchised farmers around the world fighting the same battle.
Christopher Walken plays the farmer; he is the reason to watch this movie, which apparently is a true story; Zach Braff plays his lawyer, Christina Ricci plays another lawyer who comes out of nowhere and encourages the farmer to challenge the big company.
— Florida International 33, Sam Houston State 27, OT
Panthers snap a 3-game skid, even their record at 4-4.
FIU forced OT with a 36-yard FG with 0:05 left in regulation.
0-7 Bearkats outgained FIU, 410-331
— New Mexico State 28, Texas-El Paso 7
Game was 7-7 at halftime.
Aggies ran ball 35 times for 253 yards.
UTEP converted only 2-12 third down plays.
— Liberty 42, Middle Tennessee 35
Game was 21-21 at halftime.
Liberty ran ball 61 times for 401 yards.
MTSU threw for 332 yards (9.0 yards/attempt).
— Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17
Gamecocks kicked 41-yard FG at the gun to win the game.
WKU led 17-7 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
Jacksonville State is 6-2, in its first season as a I-A team.
— South Alabama 55, Southern Miss 3
La’Damian Webb ran ball 20 times for 102 yards, four TD’s.
Jaguars outgained Southern Miss 647-149.
South Alabama won its last two games by a combined 110-10
— NFL commish Roger Goodell got a three-year contract extension through March 2027; financial stuff wasn’t announced, but supposedly he was banking around $60M a year the last few years.
Goodell has been NFL commissioner since 2006; the last NFL team that got sold before his tenure started sold for $600M (Vikings). Earlier this year, Washington Commanders were sold for $6.05B, so obviously, the NFL has profited greatly with Goodell as commissioner.
NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,876— Tua Tagovailoa, Mia
1,679— Kirk Cousins, Minn
1,677— Matthew Stafford, Rams
1,660— CJ Stroud, Hous
1,618— Jared Goff, Det
1,593— Patrick Mahomes, KC
Tweet of the Day
“We’re all tied together. It’s a journey that we’re experiencing together. Somebody will get the statistics from it, but none of those statistics are worth anything if you don’t have a full support from your players across the board, all 11, and then it goes down to the organization and all those things combined. But I know this, our players run a lot of plays that I have a lot of history with, and it looks different, and that’s because of hard work and unbelievable abilities.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel
Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; what was their name back then?
Wednesday’s quiz
49ers’ QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.
Tuesday’s quiz
Paris Hilton’s grandfather (Barron Hilton) used to own the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers
************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……
— Astros 8, Rangers 5Jose Altuve homered; Astros led 5-0 in 4th inning.
Cristian Javier got 17 outs, allowed only two runs.
Texas leads series 2-1; road team won all three games.
— New Jersey Jets traded WR Mecole Hardman to Kansas City, for two draft picks, a 6th and 7th round pick. Hardman had previously won two Super Bowl rings playing with the Chiefs, but he signed with the Jets as a free agent last spring.
— 49ers QB Brock Purdy is earning $870,000 this season; there are 20 starting QB’s in the NFL who make more than $870,000 PER GAME!!!!
— According to kenpom.com the top six college hoop teams to start this season:
1- Purdue
2- Kansas
3- Houston
4- UConn
5- Gonzaga
6- Arizona
— Justin Minaya is a 6-7 forward who is trying to make the Portland Trailblazers; his father is Omar Minaya, who used to be general manager of the New York Mets. Justin Minaya played his college ball at both South Carolina and Providence.
— NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder likes to accumulate draft choices; over the next seven drafts, the Thunder has 37 (37!!!!) draft picks. Seeing how rosters are 15 players and the Thunder was halfway decent (40-42) last year, it is unclear what they’ll do with all that draft capital.
I mean, in 2029, the Thunder has seven second round draft picks, and a first round pick.
— Movie of the Day: Percy vs Goliath (2020)— A Canadian farmer takes on a giant corporation after their GMOs interfere with his crops. As he speaks out against the company’s business practices, he realizes he is representing thousands of other disenfranchised farmers around the world fighting the same battle.
Christopher Walken plays the farmer; he is the reason to watch this movie, which apparently is a true story; Zach Braff plays his lawyer, Christina Ricci plays another lawyer who comes out of nowhere and encourages the farmer to challenge the big company.
— Florida International 33, Sam Houston State 27, OT
Panthers snap a 3-game skid, even their record at 4-4.
FIU forced OT with a 36-yard FG with 0:05 left in regulation.
0-7 Bearkats outgained FIU, 410-331
— New Mexico State 28, Texas-El Paso 7
Game was 7-7 at halftime.
Aggies ran ball 35 times for 253 yards.
UTEP converted only 2-12 third down plays.
— Liberty 42, Middle Tennessee 35
Game was 21-21 at halftime.
Liberty ran ball 61 times for 401 yards.
MTSU threw for 332 yards (9.0 yards/attempt).
— Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17
Gamecocks kicked 41-yard FG at the gun to win the game.
WKU led 17-7 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
Jacksonville State is 6-2, in its first season as a I-A team.
— South Alabama 55, Southern Miss 3
La’Damian Webb ran ball 20 times for 102 yards, four TD’s.
Jaguars outgained Southern Miss 647-149.
South Alabama won its last two games by a combined 110-10
— NFL commish Roger Goodell got a three-year contract extension through March 2027; financial stuff wasn’t announced, but supposedly he was banking around $60M a year the last few years.
Goodell has been NFL commissioner since 2006; the last NFL team that got sold before his tenure started sold for $600M (Vikings). Earlier this year, Washington Commanders were sold for $6.05B, so obviously, the NFL has profited greatly with Goodell as commissioner.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,436
- 17
- 38
NFL
Weather Report
Week 7
Weather Report
Week 7
- The Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
- The Jaguars are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
- The Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 straight Saints games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Saints last seven home games.
- The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against New Orleans.
- The Jaguars are 1-4 SU in their last five games against New Orleans.
- The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/19/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -0.50 | Detail |
| 10/16/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/15/2023 | 12-11-1 | 52.08% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/12/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/09/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 10/08/2023 | 10-13-1 | 43.75% | -2150 | Detail |
| 10/05/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/02/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/01/2023 | 11-10-1 | 52.27% | +0 | Detail |
NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1...........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00
TOTALS..................................29 - 32 - 1...........................47.54%...................................- 31.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1...........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00
TOTALS..................................29 - 32 - 1...........................47.54%...................................- 31.00
Friday’s 6-pack:
Highest scoring teams in college football:
48.5— Oregon
47.3— USC
45.3— LSU
45.2— Oklahoma
44.3— Penn State
44.3— Washington
Tweet of the Day
“If you want to be successful…….
know what you are going,
love what you are doing,
and believe in what you are doing. ”
Will Rogers
Friday’s quiz
Who managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their one World Series title?
Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; back then, they were the Dallas Texans.
Wednesday’s quiz
49ers’ QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.
**********************************
— Kirk caught 44-yard TD pass with 3:08 left for game-winning TD.
— Jaguars led 24-9 after a pick-6 with 6:47 left in third quarter.
— Jaguars won/covered their last four games.
— Jacksonville outscored last four opponents 66-19 in first half.
— Saints lost four of their last five games.
— New Orleans converted 3-18 third down plays.
— Saints had ball in red zone on last drive, but couldn’t tie game.
— Saints are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Diamondbacks 2, Phillies 1
Game was scoreless thru six innings.
Neither starting pitcher finished the sixth inning.
Ketel Marte had walk-off single in 9th inning.
Phillies lead series, 2-1; home side won all three games.
— Astros 10, Rangers 3
Altuve went 3-4, with three runs scored.
Alvarez went 2-4, with 3 RBI
Astros used four relievers to get 20 outs.
Series is tied 2-2; road team won all four games.
Roof was open at the Rangers’ ballpark, first time that happened since mid-May.
— This week, Max Scherzer joined David Wells as the only pitchers ever to start a playoff game for five different teams.
— Denver Broncos lost the last ten games they led at halftime, which isn’t good.
— Thru six games, Bears’ WR DJ Moore has 582 receiving yards; last year, Cole Kmet led the Bears in receiving yards for the whole season, with 544.
— This is the first time since 2017 that no NFL team started the season 6-0.
— Las Vegas Raiders have ruled QB Jimmy Garoppolo out for this week’s game in Chicago; rookie Aidan O’Connell is likely to start, even though Brian Hoyer played the whole second half in last week’s win over New England.
— Word of the Day: shenanigans— devious tricks used, especially for an underhanded purpose
— Rice 42, Tulsa 10
Well-traveled QB Daniels threw for 342 yards, two TD’s.
WR McCaffrey caught six passes for 99 yards and a TD.
Owls ran for 170 yards (5.5 yards/carry)
Rice outscored Tulsa 21-0 in second half.
— James Madison 20, Marshall 9
7-0 James Madison led 3-0 at halftime.
JMU’s punter pinned Marshall inside their 20-yard line seven times.
Dukes outgained Marshall, 405-169.
Marshall’s only TD was a 94-yard kick return.
— This past June, Michigan Wolverines had two players taken in the top 15 of the NBA Draft, the 49th team since 1979 to do that.
Of those 49 teams, Michigan was the only one that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.
— Last six years, the defending NBA champ has gone under their win total for that next season. All in all, 22 of the last 28 defending champs stayed under their win total.
— Retired Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is going to do some TV work for ESPN this winter; he is already signed up to do NCAA Tournament games on Westwood One radio.
— NCAA is investigating Michigan Wolverines’ football team for stealing opponents’ signs; someone posted a halftime interview with Rutgers’ coach Greg Schiano, who seemed to imply that he knew there were shenanigans going on when his team trailed 14-7 at halftime in a game in Ann Arbor.
— RIP to actor Burt Young, who passed away this week at age 83; he played Paulie in six of the Rocky movies. He has 166 acting credits on IMDB.com, he was in the original version of The Gambler, with James Caan in 1974, and he was also in the Marines for two years, in real life.
RIP, sir.
Highest scoring teams in college football:
48.5— Oregon
47.3— USC
45.3— LSU
45.2— Oklahoma
44.3— Penn State
44.3— Washington
Tweet of the Day
“If you want to be successful…….
know what you are going,
love what you are doing,
and believe in what you are doing. ”
Will Rogers
Friday’s quiz
Who managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their one World Series title?
Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; back then, they were the Dallas Texans.
Wednesday’s quiz
49ers’ QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.
**********************************
Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..
Jaguars 31, Saints 24— Kirk caught 44-yard TD pass with 3:08 left for game-winning TD.
— Jaguars led 24-9 after a pick-6 with 6:47 left in third quarter.
— Jaguars won/covered their last four games.
— Jacksonville outscored last four opponents 66-19 in first half.
— Saints lost four of their last five games.
— New Orleans converted 3-18 third down plays.
— Saints had ball in red zone on last drive, but couldn’t tie game.
— Saints are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Diamondbacks 2, Phillies 1
Game was scoreless thru six innings.
Neither starting pitcher finished the sixth inning.
Ketel Marte had walk-off single in 9th inning.
Phillies lead series, 2-1; home side won all three games.
— Astros 10, Rangers 3
Altuve went 3-4, with three runs scored.
Alvarez went 2-4, with 3 RBI
Astros used four relievers to get 20 outs.
Series is tied 2-2; road team won all four games.
Roof was open at the Rangers’ ballpark, first time that happened since mid-May.
— This week, Max Scherzer joined David Wells as the only pitchers ever to start a playoff game for five different teams.
— Denver Broncos lost the last ten games they led at halftime, which isn’t good.
— Thru six games, Bears’ WR DJ Moore has 582 receiving yards; last year, Cole Kmet led the Bears in receiving yards for the whole season, with 544.
— This is the first time since 2017 that no NFL team started the season 6-0.
— Las Vegas Raiders have ruled QB Jimmy Garoppolo out for this week’s game in Chicago; rookie Aidan O’Connell is likely to start, even though Brian Hoyer played the whole second half in last week’s win over New England.
— Word of the Day: shenanigans— devious tricks used, especially for an underhanded purpose
— Rice 42, Tulsa 10
Well-traveled QB Daniels threw for 342 yards, two TD’s.
WR McCaffrey caught six passes for 99 yards and a TD.
Owls ran for 170 yards (5.5 yards/carry)
Rice outscored Tulsa 21-0 in second half.
— James Madison 20, Marshall 9
7-0 James Madison led 3-0 at halftime.
JMU’s punter pinned Marshall inside their 20-yard line seven times.
Dukes outgained Marshall, 405-169.
Marshall’s only TD was a 94-yard kick return.
— This past June, Michigan Wolverines had two players taken in the top 15 of the NBA Draft, the 49th team since 1979 to do that.
Of those 49 teams, Michigan was the only one that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.
— Last six years, the defending NBA champ has gone under their win total for that next season. All in all, 22 of the last 28 defending champs stayed under their win total.
— Retired Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is going to do some TV work for ESPN this winter; he is already signed up to do NCAA Tournament games on Westwood One radio.
— NCAA is investigating Michigan Wolverines’ football team for stealing opponents’ signs; someone posted a halftime interview with Rutgers’ coach Greg Schiano, who seemed to imply that he knew there were shenanigans going on when his team trailed 14-7 at halftime in a game in Ann Arbor.
— RIP to actor Burt Young, who passed away this week at age 83; he played Paulie in six of the Rocky movies. He has 166 acting credits on IMDB.com, he was in the original version of The Gambler, with James Caan in 1974, and he was also in the Marines for two years, in real life.
RIP, sir.
Saturday’s 6-pack:
lowest scoring teams in college football:
13.4— Sam Houston State
13.4— Kent State
15.0— Ball State
15.3— Charlotte
15.6— Akron
16.4— Texas-El Paso
Quote of the Day
“Success consists of going from failure to failure, without a loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston Churchill
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie 21, about six MIT students who become trained to be experts in card counting in blackjack, what famous actor played the guy who trained the students?
Friday’s quiz
Bob Brenly managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their one World Series title.
Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; back then, they were the Dallas Texans.
********************************************
Altuve hit a 3-run homer in top of the 9th.
game was 1-1 after five innings.
Astros used three relievers to get 10 outs.
Astros lead series, 3-2; road team won all five games.
— Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 5
Alek Thomas hit a pinch-hit, 2-run HR in bottom of 8th
Phillies led 5-2 in seventh inning.
Arizona amazingly used eight pitchers in a 9-inning game.
series is tied, 2-2; home side won all four games.
— SMU 55, Temple 0
Mustangs led 24-0 at halftime.
SMU QB Stone was 23-36/300 passing, with two TD’a.
Temple QB EJ Warner (concussion) didn’t play
— Dillon Gabriel was the quarterback at Central Florida from 2019-21; last year he transferred to Oklahoma, and since then, UCF jumped to the Big X, because next year, Texas/Oklahoma are jumping to the SEC.
This week, Central Florida visits Oklahoma, in what will be their only meeting as conference rivals. Dillon Gabriel gets to play against some of his old teammates.
— Will Venable is associate manager for the Texas Rangers; this week he turned down a chance to interview for the vacant managing job with the Mets. Who turns down an interview for a managing job, especially in a big market with a really rich owner?
Only a cynical person would read into this and guess that Venable has a promise to become the Rangers’ manager when Bruce Bochy retires.
— This week, Astros’ 1B Jose Abreu became the oldest player in the last 100 years to hit a home run and steal a base in the same playoff game.
— This made me feel old; kid named Johnny Backus just signed to play baseball for Michigan Wolverines. His mother is actress Mira Sorvino, his grandfather was Paul Sorvino.
— Word of the Day: karma— effects of one’s actions that determine his or her destiny.
In other words, right actions produce good results while wrong actions produce bad ones.
— Modern baseball: Arizona-Phillies are 0-0 in 6th inning, and Brandon Pfaadt is breezing thru the Phillies’ lineup, but as soon as he faces his 18th batter they yank him, because over-educated nerds in the Arizona front office said so. Pfaadt had only thrown 70 pitches.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. At least let him allow a baserunner before you take the guy out.
— Lot of college basketball teams took foreign trips this summer; this is a big advantage in the transfer portal age, since foreign trips let teams have 10 extra practices before the trip, and those practices are very valuable.
Lot of teams are just totally re-booting their rosters, which makes handicapping November games virtually impossible (if you want to win). Coaches don’t even know what’s up; they use the pre-conference games to establish their rotations for conference play.
— People kept saying how Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence had a bad leg, might not play Thursday night; he wore a brace on his knee, and then the game started, and Lawrence ran the ball eight time for 59 yards and he looked pretty nimble and Jacksonville won. Go figure.
In a perfect world, where I make all decisions…….
— NBA needs to sponsor a 32-person (or 64) 1-on-1 tournament in the summer, with each player posting a charity that he is playing for. This would be wildly popular: can you imagine?
Steph Curry vs Lebron James
James Harden vs Kevin Durant
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs Jayson Tatum
This needs to happen; the league had a 1-on-1 tournament for two years back in the 70’s, but it died because Julius Erving’s agent wouldn’t let him play in it.
— NFL officials need to call fewer holding penalties; league says they want more scoring, then call fewer holding penalties.
— We need more game shows on TV, and fewer of these talk programs with contrived arguments; bring back Hollywood Squares. That was an excellent gameshow.
lowest scoring teams in college football:
13.4— Sam Houston State
13.4— Kent State
15.0— Ball State
15.3— Charlotte
15.6— Akron
16.4— Texas-El Paso
Quote of the Day
“Success consists of going from failure to failure, without a loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston Churchill
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie 21, about six MIT students who become trained to be experts in card counting in blackjack, what famous actor played the guy who trained the students?
Friday’s quiz
Bob Brenly managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their one World Series title.
Thursday’s quiz
In the first three years (1960-62) of the AFL, the Kansas City Chiefs played in a different city; back then, they were the Dallas Texans.
********************************************
Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….
— Astros 10, Rangers 3Altuve hit a 3-run homer in top of the 9th.
game was 1-1 after five innings.
Astros used three relievers to get 10 outs.
Astros lead series, 3-2; road team won all five games.
— Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 5
Alek Thomas hit a pinch-hit, 2-run HR in bottom of 8th
Phillies led 5-2 in seventh inning.
Arizona amazingly used eight pitchers in a 9-inning game.
series is tied, 2-2; home side won all four games.
— SMU 55, Temple 0
Mustangs led 24-0 at halftime.
SMU QB Stone was 23-36/300 passing, with two TD’a.
Temple QB EJ Warner (concussion) didn’t play
— Dillon Gabriel was the quarterback at Central Florida from 2019-21; last year he transferred to Oklahoma, and since then, UCF jumped to the Big X, because next year, Texas/Oklahoma are jumping to the SEC.
This week, Central Florida visits Oklahoma, in what will be their only meeting as conference rivals. Dillon Gabriel gets to play against some of his old teammates.
— Will Venable is associate manager for the Texas Rangers; this week he turned down a chance to interview for the vacant managing job with the Mets. Who turns down an interview for a managing job, especially in a big market with a really rich owner?
Only a cynical person would read into this and guess that Venable has a promise to become the Rangers’ manager when Bruce Bochy retires.
— This week, Astros’ 1B Jose Abreu became the oldest player in the last 100 years to hit a home run and steal a base in the same playoff game.
— This made me feel old; kid named Johnny Backus just signed to play baseball for Michigan Wolverines. His mother is actress Mira Sorvino, his grandfather was Paul Sorvino.
— Word of the Day: karma— effects of one’s actions that determine his or her destiny.
In other words, right actions produce good results while wrong actions produce bad ones.
— Modern baseball: Arizona-Phillies are 0-0 in 6th inning, and Brandon Pfaadt is breezing thru the Phillies’ lineup, but as soon as he faces his 18th batter they yank him, because over-educated nerds in the Arizona front office said so. Pfaadt had only thrown 70 pitches.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. At least let him allow a baserunner before you take the guy out.
— Lot of college basketball teams took foreign trips this summer; this is a big advantage in the transfer portal age, since foreign trips let teams have 10 extra practices before the trip, and those practices are very valuable.
Lot of teams are just totally re-booting their rosters, which makes handicapping November games virtually impossible (if you want to win). Coaches don’t even know what’s up; they use the pre-conference games to establish their rotations for conference play.
— People kept saying how Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence had a bad leg, might not play Thursday night; he wore a brace on his knee, and then the game started, and Lawrence ran the ball eight time for 59 yards and he looked pretty nimble and Jacksonville won. Go figure.
In a perfect world, where I make all decisions…….
— NBA needs to sponsor a 32-person (or 64) 1-on-1 tournament in the summer, with each player posting a charity that he is playing for. This would be wildly popular: can you imagine?
Steph Curry vs Lebron James
James Harden vs Kevin Durant
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs Jayson Tatum
This needs to happen; the league had a 1-on-1 tournament for two years back in the 70’s, but it died because Julius Erving’s agent wouldn’t let him play in it.
— NFL officials need to call fewer holding penalties; league says they want more scoring, then call fewer holding penalties.
— We need more game shows on TV, and fewer of these talk programs with contrived arguments; bring back Hollywood Squares. That was an excellent gameshow.
Sunday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in receiving yards:
814— Tyreek Hill, Mia
672— AJ Brown, Phil
620— Stefon Diggs, Buff
598— Puka Nacua, Rams
582— DJ Moore, Chi
571— Justin Jefferson, Minn
Quote of the Day
“………I think the spot was horrible. I think we got the first down. It was first-and-nine at the nine. I don’t understand review. Every time I think something is reviewable, I can’t get them to review it. They say they’re looking at it, but I don’t know that.”
Houston Cougars’ coach Dana Holgorsen, after his team’s 31-24 loss to Texas
Sunday’s quiz
Where was the first Super Bowl played?
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie 21, about six MIT students who become trained to be experts in card counting in blackjack, Kevin Spacey played the guy who trained the students.
Friday’s quiz
Bob Brenly managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their one World Series title.
****************************************
Game was 14-14 at halftime.
Utah led 28-14 with a minute left in third quarter.
USC scored TD after long punt return to take 32-31 lead with 1:46 left.
Utes kicked a 38-yard FG at the gun for a dramatic win.
— Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
Tennessee led 20-7 at halftime.
Last year, Alabama had 17 penalties for 130 yards vs Tennessee.
In this game, Crimson Tide had one penalty for five yards.
— Oklahoma 31, Central Florida 29
UCF scored TD with 1:16 left, but failed on 2-point conversion.
Former Knight Gabriel was 25-38/253 passing, with three TD’s.
Central Florida is 0-4 in its first year in the Big X.
— UNLV 25, Colorado State 23
Rebels are 6-1, bowl eligible for first time since 2013.
UNLV kicked FG, took 22-20 lead with 1:27 left.
Colorado State kicked FG, took 23-22 lead with 0:44 left.
UNLV kicked 28-yard FG to win the game with 0:03 left.
— Ohio State 20, Penn State 12
Buckeyes outgained Penn State, 365-240
Nittany Lions converted 1-16 third down plays.
HC James Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State.
— Air Force 17, Navy 6
Air Force threw a 94-yard TD pass, longest play in school history.
Other Air Force TD was a pick-6 with 3:51 left.
Under is now 25-3 in the last 28 Armed Forces games.
— Upsets of the Week:
Virginia (+23.5) 31, North Carolina 27
Jacksonville State (+7.5) 20, Western Kentucky 17
Charlotte (+7) 10, East Carolina 7
Utah (+6.5) 34, USC 32
Old Dominion (+6.5) 28, Appalachian State 21
Mississippi State (+6) 7, Arkansas 3
Florida International (+5) 33, Sam Houston State 27, OT
Boston College (+4.5) 38, Georgia Tech 23
Ball State (+4.5) 24, Central Michigan 17
BYU (+4.5) 27, Texas Tech 14
— Word of the Day: Chicanery— the use of trickery to achieve a goal.
Arkansas could use some more chicanery in their offense.
— Mississippi State 7, Arkansas 3
Arkansas has lost six games in a row; the natives are restless.
Five of the six losses were by 7 or fewer points.
— Miami 28, Clemson 20, OT
Clemson led 17-7 after three quarters.
Miami was 9-18 on third down, Tigers 4-14
Clemson ran ball 34 times for 31 yards.
Clemson is 4-3; they’re not used to being 4-3.
— Wake Forest 21, Pittsburgh 17
Deacons threw 15-yard TD pass with 0:07 for the win.
Marucci was 12-21/151 passing; he is/was Wake’s 3rd-string QB.
Pitt outgained Wake 414-323, was +2 in turnovers, still lost.
— Texas 31, Houston 24
Longhorns led 21-0 with 7:00 left in first half.
Houston tied game twice after that; their last drive ended on Texas 10-yard line.
Texas QB Ewers (shoulder) left game early in 4th quarter.
— Tulane 35, North Texas 28
Tulane led 28-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
North Texas tied game, scoring 21 points in 8:57.
Green Wave drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:34 left.
— Minnesota 12, Iowa 10
Hawkeyes led 10-3 at halftime.
Minnesota snaps 8-game losing skid vs Iowa.
This was Gophers’ first win in Iowa City since 1999.
— Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21
Illinois led 21-7 after three quarters.
Freshman QB Locke threw two 4th quarter TD’s, in his first college start.
Badgers converted 10-17 third down plays.
— Phillies 6, Diamondbacks 1
Wheeler tossed seven strong innings to get the win.
Schwarber, Realmuto homered for Philadelphia.
Phillies lead series, 3-2.
NFL leaders in receiving yards:
814— Tyreek Hill, Mia
672— AJ Brown, Phil
620— Stefon Diggs, Buff
598— Puka Nacua, Rams
582— DJ Moore, Chi
571— Justin Jefferson, Minn
Quote of the Day
“………I think the spot was horrible. I think we got the first down. It was first-and-nine at the nine. I don’t understand review. Every time I think something is reviewable, I can’t get them to review it. They say they’re looking at it, but I don’t know that.”
Houston Cougars’ coach Dana Holgorsen, after his team’s 31-24 loss to Texas
Sunday’s quiz
Where was the first Super Bowl played?
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie 21, about six MIT students who become trained to be experts in card counting in blackjack, Kevin Spacey played the guy who trained the students.
Friday’s quiz
Bob Brenly managed the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won their one World Series title.
****************************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday……..
— Utah 34, USC 32Game was 14-14 at halftime.
Utah led 28-14 with a minute left in third quarter.
USC scored TD after long punt return to take 32-31 lead with 1:46 left.
Utes kicked a 38-yard FG at the gun for a dramatic win.
— Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
Tennessee led 20-7 at halftime.
Last year, Alabama had 17 penalties for 130 yards vs Tennessee.
In this game, Crimson Tide had one penalty for five yards.
— Oklahoma 31, Central Florida 29
UCF scored TD with 1:16 left, but failed on 2-point conversion.
Former Knight Gabriel was 25-38/253 passing, with three TD’s.
Central Florida is 0-4 in its first year in the Big X.
— UNLV 25, Colorado State 23
Rebels are 6-1, bowl eligible for first time since 2013.
UNLV kicked FG, took 22-20 lead with 1:27 left.
Colorado State kicked FG, took 23-22 lead with 0:44 left.
UNLV kicked 28-yard FG to win the game with 0:03 left.
— Ohio State 20, Penn State 12
Buckeyes outgained Penn State, 365-240
Nittany Lions converted 1-16 third down plays.
HC James Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State.
— Air Force 17, Navy 6
Air Force threw a 94-yard TD pass, longest play in school history.
Other Air Force TD was a pick-6 with 3:51 left.
Under is now 25-3 in the last 28 Armed Forces games.
— Upsets of the Week:
Virginia (+23.5) 31, North Carolina 27
Jacksonville State (+7.5) 20, Western Kentucky 17
Charlotte (+7) 10, East Carolina 7
Utah (+6.5) 34, USC 32
Old Dominion (+6.5) 28, Appalachian State 21
Mississippi State (+6) 7, Arkansas 3
Florida International (+5) 33, Sam Houston State 27, OT
Boston College (+4.5) 38, Georgia Tech 23
Ball State (+4.5) 24, Central Michigan 17
BYU (+4.5) 27, Texas Tech 14
— Word of the Day: Chicanery— the use of trickery to achieve a goal.
Arkansas could use some more chicanery in their offense.
— Mississippi State 7, Arkansas 3
Arkansas has lost six games in a row; the natives are restless.
Five of the six losses were by 7 or fewer points.
— Miami 28, Clemson 20, OT
Clemson led 17-7 after three quarters.
Miami was 9-18 on third down, Tigers 4-14
Clemson ran ball 34 times for 31 yards.
Clemson is 4-3; they’re not used to being 4-3.
— Wake Forest 21, Pittsburgh 17
Deacons threw 15-yard TD pass with 0:07 for the win.
Marucci was 12-21/151 passing; he is/was Wake’s 3rd-string QB.
Pitt outgained Wake 414-323, was +2 in turnovers, still lost.
— Texas 31, Houston 24
Longhorns led 21-0 with 7:00 left in first half.
Houston tied game twice after that; their last drive ended on Texas 10-yard line.
Texas QB Ewers (shoulder) left game early in 4th quarter.
— Tulane 35, North Texas 28
Tulane led 28-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
North Texas tied game, scoring 21 points in 8:57.
Green Wave drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:34 left.
— Minnesota 12, Iowa 10
Hawkeyes led 10-3 at halftime.
Minnesota snaps 8-game losing skid vs Iowa.
This was Gophers’ first win in Iowa City since 1999.
— Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21
Illinois led 21-7 after three quarters.
Freshman QB Locke threw two 4th quarter TD’s, in his first college start.
Badgers converted 10-17 third down plays.
— Phillies 6, Diamondbacks 1
Wheeler tossed seven strong innings to get the win.
Schwarber, Realmuto homered for Philadelphia.
Phillies lead series, 3-2.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at TB | 01:00 PM | TB -2.5 U 37.5 | +500 +500 |
| LV at CHI | 01:00 PM | LV -2.5 U 38.5 | +500 +500 |
| DET at BAL | 01:00 PM | BAL -3.0 O 43.0 | +500 +500 |
| WAS at NYG | 01:00 PM | WAS -3.0 U 37.0 | +500 +500 |
| CLE at IND | 01:00 PM | CLE -3.5 U 40.5 | +500 +500 |
| BUF at NE | 01:00 PM | NE +8.5 U 41.5 | +500 +500 |
| PIT at LAR | 04:05 PM | LAR -3.5 O 43.5 | +500 +500 |
| ARI at SEA | 04:05 PM | ARI +10.0 O 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| GB at DEN | 04:25 PM | DEN +1.0 O 45.5 | +500 +500 |
| LAC at KC | 04:25 PM | LAC +6.0 O 48.0 | +500 +500 |
| MIA at PHI | 08:20 PM | PHI -3.0 U 52.0 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22/2023 | 8-12-2 | 40.91% | -2600 | Detail |
| 10/19/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/16/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/15/2023 | 12-11-1 | 52.08% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/12/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/09/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 10/08/2023 | 10-13-1 | 43.75% | -2150 | Detail |
| 10/05/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/02/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/01/2023 | 11-10-1 | 52.27% | +0 | Detail |
NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/22/2023...............................6 - 8 - 2...........................42.85%....................................- 14.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1...........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00
TOTALS..................................35 - 40 - 3...........................46.66%...................................- 45.00
10/22/2023...............................6 - 8 - 2...........................42.85%....................................- 14.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1...........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00
TOTALS..................................35 - 40 - 3...........................46.66%...................................- 45.00
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,436
- 17
- 38
Armadillo Sports
Monday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads for this week’s college football:
— Tennessee -5 @ Kentucky
— Duke @ Louisville -4
— West Virginia @ Central Florida -4
— Clemson -9 @ NC State
— Oklahoma -10 @ Kansas
— UNLV @ Fresno State -9
Quote of the Day
“They whooped our ass. Plain and simple. Gotta be better………….I’m f—ing tired of this shit. F—ing tired of this bullshit. It’s been seven f—ing years of the same shit. I’m tired of this shit.”
Washington Commanders’ DT Jonathan Allen
Monday’s quiz
Who coached the Philadelphia Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?
Sunday’s quiz
The first Super Bowl was played in the Los Angeles Coliseum; Packers 35, Chiefs 10.
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie 21, about six MIT students who become trained to be experts in card counting in blackjack, Kevin Spacey played the guy who trained the students.
****************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Browns 39, Colts 38
Browns drove 80 yards, scored winning TD with 0:15 left.
Cleveland outscored the Colts 16-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Watson left game in first quarter (concussion), didn’t return.
since 2013, Cleveland is 4-12 ATS as a road favorite (0-2 TY).
Colts outgained Cleveland, 456-316, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Colts gave up 31-29-37-38 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
Over is 5-2 in Indy’s games this season.
Last four weeks, Colts were outscored 74-37 in first half.
Patriots 29, Bills 25
Bills in first half: 30 plays, 113 yards, 3 points.
Bills in second half: 38 plays, 232 yards, 22 points.
Last three games, Buffalo scored one first half TD on 15 drives.
Bills allowed 10-3-20-9 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
Patriots drove 69 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:12 left.
Mac Jones was 25-30/272 passing, with two TD’s.
Only nine of New England’s 55 plays came on third down.
Just 2nd win for Patriots in last nine games with Buffalo.
Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13
Atlanta kicked a 51-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
They won, despite QB Ridder losing three fumbles, all in red zone.
Falcons are 4-3, but haven’t led (0-5-2) at halftime yet.
Under is 13-2 in their last 15 games overall, 6-1 TY.
Down 13-10 in last 1:00, Bucs had ball on Atlanta 8-yard line, but could only kick FG.
Bucs have 13 takeaways in six games (+7 turnovers)
Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as home favorites.
Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13 in losses.
Bears 30, Raiders 12
Rookie QB Bagent won his first NFL start (21-29/162 passing, one TD)
Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down, Raiders 2-9.
Last four games, Bears outscored opponents 68-25 in first half.
Six of their seven games went over the total.
Bears outgained Raiders 323-235, were +3 in turnovers.
Raiders ran the ball 14 times for only 39 yards.
Last 2+ years, Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite.
AFC West teams are 7-12 ATS outside the division.
Ravens 38, Lions 6
Ravens’ first four drives: 32 plays, 315 yards, 28 points.
Baltimore averaged 12.8 yards/pass attempt.
Only eight of Ravens’ 55 plays were on third down.
Baltimore is 15-2 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
Detroit in first half: 25 plays, 65 yards, 4 punts, no points.
Lions were 5-16 on third down, Baltimore 4-8.
Ravens outgained Detroit, 503-337.
NFC North teams are 7-12-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants 14, Commanders 7
Washington went 3/out on eight of 14 drives.
Commanders were 1-15 on third down, Giants 5-16.
Last five weeks, Commanders were outscored 77-37 in 1st half.
Commanders’ TD drives last two weeks: 11-47-24-21 yards.
Giants scored 9-14 points in Taylor’s first two starts.
Giants are 6-2-1 SU in last nine series games.
Under is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
Last five games, Giants have three TD’s, 17 3/outs on 51 drives.
Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10
Arizona averaged only 3.2 yard/pass attempt.
Arizona is 0-4 SU/ATS last four games, losing by 19-14-17-10 points.
Cardinals lost 17 of last 20 games SU (7-10 ATS in last 17).
Cardinals have been outscored 104-30 in 2nd half of games.
Seattle was 7-13 on third down, Arizona 5-15.
Seahawks won/covered four of last five games.
Seahawks scored 37-37-24-20 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Steelers 24, Rams 17
Steelers in first half: 25 plays, 66 yards, 3 points.
Steelers in second half: 31 plays, 189 yards, 21 points.
Pitt is 29-15-1 ATS in last 45 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
Steelers scored 26-23-17-24 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
Stafford was 8-12/154 throwing to Pacua, 6-17/77 to everyone else.
LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14-17 in losses.
Rams were 9-16 on third down, Steelers 4-12.
Rams are 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Chiefs 31, Chargers 17
Chargers’ first four drives: 26 plays, 200 yards, 17 points.
Chargers rest of game: 35 plays, 143 yards, 2 INT’s, no points.
Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 21-46 in losses (6-11 this game).
Bolts are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
Mahomes was 32-43/424 passing, with four TD’s.
Chiefs won last six games, by 8-31-3-7-11-14 points (5-1 ATS).
Chiefs converted 36 of last 65 third down plays.
Kansas City won 16 of last 19 series games SU.
Broncos 19, Packers 17
Green Bay in first half: 26 plays, 100 yards, no points.
Green Bay in second half: 37 plays, 236 yards, 17 points.
Last four weeks, Packers were outscored 63-6 in first half.
Packers are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
Lutz kicked 52-yard FG with 3:54 left for game-winning points.
Denver ran ball 25 times for 145 yards (5.8 yards/carry).
Broncos are 2-5, but led four of seven games at halftime.
Denver has been outscored 116-72 in 2nd half of games.
Eagles 31, Dolphins 17
Game was tied 17-17 late in 3rd quarter, after Miami got pick-6.
Eagles’ next two drives: 21 plays, 158 yards, 14 points.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 10-4-1 ATS as home favorites
Hurts was 23-31/279 passing, with two TD’s.
Miami’s five wins are vs teams with combined record of 8-25
Eagles outgained Miami, 355-244.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four games, Miami is minus-5 in turnovers (2-7).
Rangers 9, Astros 2
Eovaldi got 19 outs, allowed two runs.
Garcia broke game open with 9th inning grand slam.
Garver and Heim also homered for Texas.
Road team has won all six series games; Game 7 is tonight.
Monday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads for this week’s college football:
— Tennessee -5 @ Kentucky
— Duke @ Louisville -4
— West Virginia @ Central Florida -4
— Clemson -9 @ NC State
— Oklahoma -10 @ Kansas
— UNLV @ Fresno State -9
Quote of the Day
“They whooped our ass. Plain and simple. Gotta be better………….I’m f—ing tired of this shit. F—ing tired of this bullshit. It’s been seven f—ing years of the same shit. I’m tired of this shit.”
Washington Commanders’ DT Jonathan Allen
Monday’s quiz
Who coached the Philadelphia Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?
Sunday’s quiz
The first Super Bowl was played in the Los Angeles Coliseum; Packers 35, Chiefs 10.
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie 21, about six MIT students who become trained to be experts in card counting in blackjack, Kevin Spacey played the guy who trained the students.
****************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Browns 39, Colts 38
Browns drove 80 yards, scored winning TD with 0:15 left.
Cleveland outscored the Colts 16-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Watson left game in first quarter (concussion), didn’t return.
since 2013, Cleveland is 4-12 ATS as a road favorite (0-2 TY).
Colts outgained Cleveland, 456-316, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Colts gave up 31-29-37-38 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
Over is 5-2 in Indy’s games this season.
Last four weeks, Colts were outscored 74-37 in first half.
Patriots 29, Bills 25
Bills in first half: 30 plays, 113 yards, 3 points.
Bills in second half: 38 plays, 232 yards, 22 points.
Last three games, Buffalo scored one first half TD on 15 drives.
Bills allowed 10-3-20-9 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
Patriots drove 69 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:12 left.
Mac Jones was 25-30/272 passing, with two TD’s.
Only nine of New England’s 55 plays came on third down.
Just 2nd win for Patriots in last nine games with Buffalo.
Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13
Atlanta kicked a 51-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
They won, despite QB Ridder losing three fumbles, all in red zone.
Falcons are 4-3, but haven’t led (0-5-2) at halftime yet.
Under is 13-2 in their last 15 games overall, 6-1 TY.
Down 13-10 in last 1:00, Bucs had ball on Atlanta 8-yard line, but could only kick FG.
Bucs have 13 takeaways in six games (+7 turnovers)
Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as home favorites.
Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13 in losses.
Bears 30, Raiders 12
Rookie QB Bagent won his first NFL start (21-29/162 passing, one TD)
Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down, Raiders 2-9.
Last four games, Bears outscored opponents 68-25 in first half.
Six of their seven games went over the total.
Bears outgained Raiders 323-235, were +3 in turnovers.
Raiders ran the ball 14 times for only 39 yards.
Last 2+ years, Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite.
AFC West teams are 7-12 ATS outside the division.
Ravens 38, Lions 6
Ravens’ first four drives: 32 plays, 315 yards, 28 points.
Baltimore averaged 12.8 yards/pass attempt.
Only eight of Ravens’ 55 plays were on third down.
Baltimore is 15-2 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
Detroit in first half: 25 plays, 65 yards, 4 punts, no points.
Lions were 5-16 on third down, Baltimore 4-8.
Ravens outgained Detroit, 503-337.
NFC North teams are 7-12-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants 14, Commanders 7
Washington went 3/out on eight of 14 drives.
Commanders were 1-15 on third down, Giants 5-16.
Last five weeks, Commanders were outscored 77-37 in 1st half.
Commanders’ TD drives last two weeks: 11-47-24-21 yards.
Giants scored 9-14 points in Taylor’s first two starts.
Giants are 6-2-1 SU in last nine series games.
Under is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
Last five games, Giants have three TD’s, 17 3/outs on 51 drives.
Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10
Arizona averaged only 3.2 yard/pass attempt.
Arizona is 0-4 SU/ATS last four games, losing by 19-14-17-10 points.
Cardinals lost 17 of last 20 games SU (7-10 ATS in last 17).
Cardinals have been outscored 104-30 in 2nd half of games.
Seattle was 7-13 on third down, Arizona 5-15.
Seahawks won/covered four of last five games.
Seahawks scored 37-37-24-20 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Steelers 24, Rams 17
Steelers in first half: 25 plays, 66 yards, 3 points.
Steelers in second half: 31 plays, 189 yards, 21 points.
Pitt is 29-15-1 ATS in last 45 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
Steelers scored 26-23-17-24 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
Stafford was 8-12/154 throwing to Pacua, 6-17/77 to everyone else.
LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14-17 in losses.
Rams were 9-16 on third down, Steelers 4-12.
Rams are 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Chiefs 31, Chargers 17
Chargers’ first four drives: 26 plays, 200 yards, 17 points.
Chargers rest of game: 35 plays, 143 yards, 2 INT’s, no points.
Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 21-46 in losses (6-11 this game).
Bolts are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
Mahomes was 32-43/424 passing, with four TD’s.
Chiefs won last six games, by 8-31-3-7-11-14 points (5-1 ATS).
Chiefs converted 36 of last 65 third down plays.
Kansas City won 16 of last 19 series games SU.
Broncos 19, Packers 17
Green Bay in first half: 26 plays, 100 yards, no points.
Green Bay in second half: 37 plays, 236 yards, 17 points.
Last four weeks, Packers were outscored 63-6 in first half.
Packers are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
Lutz kicked 52-yard FG with 3:54 left for game-winning points.
Denver ran ball 25 times for 145 yards (5.8 yards/carry).
Broncos are 2-5, but led four of seven games at halftime.
Denver has been outscored 116-72 in 2nd half of games.
Eagles 31, Dolphins 17
Game was tied 17-17 late in 3rd quarter, after Miami got pick-6.
Eagles’ next two drives: 21 plays, 158 yards, 14 points.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 10-4-1 ATS as home favorites
Hurts was 23-31/279 passing, with two TD’s.
Miami’s five wins are vs teams with combined record of 8-25
Eagles outgained Miami, 355-244.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four games, Miami is minus-5 in turnovers (2-7).
Rangers 9, Astros 2
Eovaldi got 19 outs, allowed two runs.
Garcia broke game open with 9th inning grand slam.
Garver and Heim also homered for Texas.
Road team has won all six series games; Game 7 is tonight.
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/23/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 10/22/2023 | 8-12-2 | 40.91% | -2600 | Detail |
| 10/19/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/16/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/15/2023 | 12-11-1 | 52.08% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/12/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/09/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 10/08/2023 | 10-13-1 | 43.75% | -2150 | Detail |
| 10/05/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 10/02/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 10/01/2023 | 11-10-1 | 52.27% | +0 | Detail |
