NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

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Weather Report

Week 8


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  • The Raiders are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Las Vegas' last five games.
  • The Lions are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Detroit's last six games.
  • The Lions are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • The Raiders are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The Raiders are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Detroit.
 

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 30

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LV at DET08:15 PMDET -7.0
U 46.5
+500 +500
 

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Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks
DateW-L-T%UnitsRecord
10/30/20232-0-0100.00%+1000Detail
10/29/202312-14-246.43%-1700Detail
10/26/20230-2-00.00%-1100Detail
10/23/20232-0-0100.00%+1000Detail
10/22/20238-12-240.91%-2600Detail
10/19/20231-1-050.00%-50Detail
10/16/20230-2-00.00%-1100Detail
10/15/202312-11-152.08%-50Detail
10/12/20230-2-00.00%-1100Detail
10/09/20232-0-0100.00%+1000Detail
10/08/202310-13-143.75%-2150Detail
10/05/20230-2-00.00%-1100Detail
10/02/20231-1-050.00%-50Detail
10/01/202311-10-152.27%+0Detail
 

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NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/30/2023..............................2 - 0.................................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/29/2023............................11 - 10 - 2..........................52.38%..................................- 0.00
10/26/2023...............................0 - 2..................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/23/2023...............................2 - 0...............................100.00%...................................+ 10.00
10/22/2023...............................6 - 8 - 2..........................42.85%....................................- 14.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00

TOTALS..................................50 - 52 - 5..........................49.01%....................................- 36.00
 

Cnotes53

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL games this week:
— Dolphins vs Chiefs (-2.5)
— Seahawks @ Baltimore (-5.5)
— Cardinals @ Cleveland (-8)
— Vikings @ Atlanta (-4.5)
— Colts (-2.5) @ Carolina
— Cowboys @ Philadelphia (-3)

Quote of the Day
“I’ll never watch baseball again if that happens!”
Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Glavine, on a suggestion that balls/strikes could be subject to instant replay challenges

Tuesday’s quiz
On the old TV show Friends, what well-known actress played Chandler’s mother?

Monday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.

Sunday’s quiz
Randall Cunningham is the only UNLV football player who has had his number retired by the Rebels.

*******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

— When I was a kid, two guys in our neighborhood drove Cadillacs; the guy who owned a funeral parlor, and the guy who owned a beer distributorship.
There’s a lesson in there for kids; get into a line of work where you’ll never, ever run out of customers. Dying and drinking fit that description.

— Monday was the Sports Equinox, the only day in 2023 where all four pro sports were in action on the same day. Only the 29th time it has ever happened.

— Saturday night in Fort Collins, Colorado State was penalized after their fans threw snowballs at the Air Force bench during the Falcons’ 30-13 win. Problem is, the game was 13-13 when the snowballs were thrown; Air Force scored a touchdown on the drive after the penalty.

— NHL has struck gold with their Stadium Series games, where teams play outdoors; they draw very large crowds. Flames-Oilers in Edmonton Sunday drew 55,411 fans.

Lions 26, Raiders 14
Lions outgained the Raiders, 486-157.
Detroit won/covered five of its last six games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Campbell, Lions are 29-12-1 ATS overall.
Raiders in 2nd half: 22 plays, 76 yards, no points.
Raiders’ only TD in 2nd half was 75-yard pick-6 by Peters.
Las Vegas lost last three road games, by 28-17-18-12 points.
Raiders’ team total: under 8-0
— Through eight weeks of the NFL season, seven rookie QB’s have started a game, the most of any year in the Super Bowl era.

Rangers 3, Diamondbacks 1
Texas scored 3 runs in 2nd inning; Seager hit a 2-run homer.
Scherzer left after three innings with a bad back.
Texas bullpen got 18 outs, allowed only one run.
Rangers lead series, 2-1

— Rangers’ OF Adolis Garcia left the game with left side tightness.

— It is good to watch the World Series live again; this time last year, I had DirecTV and they were at war with the local FOX station, so no live baseball— watched the replays of the World Series at 2:30am on MLB Network. Watching them live is more fun.

— Whoever invented the multi-view, with football game/baseball game next to each other on the same screen, that person deserves a raise, a big raise.

— In case you were wondering, there have been 20,533 major league baseball players; it is difficult to make it to the big leagues, even harder to stay there.

— Word of the Day: Camaraderie— Mutual trust and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together.

— College football conference trends:
AAC— home favorites are 5-11 ATS, home underdogs are 4-8.
ACC— home underdogs are 10-4 ATS
Big X— home favorites are 12-9 ATS, home underdogs are 9-4
Big 14— home underdogs are 3-11 ATS
C-USA— home favorites are 5-8 ATS, home underdogs are 2-8
MAC— home favorites are 6-8 ATS, home underdogs are 3-7
Mountain West— home favorites are 6-8 ATS, home underdogs are 5-7
Pac-12— home underdogs are 10-4 ATS
SEC— home favorites are 13-7 ATS, home underdogs are 4-10
Sun Belt— home favorites are 8-12 ATS.

— Iowa-Northwestern total for this week is 29.5, the lowest college football total on record. Five of the six meetings in this series stayed under the total. This game is in Chicago, not Evanston.
Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, the head coach’s son, will finish out this season, then take a hike, the school announced Monday. Nice way of saying he got fired.

— NFL divisional trends:
NFC East teams are 12-9 ATS outside the division.
NFC North teams are 9-12-1 ATS outside the division.
NFC South teams are 7-14-1 ATS outside the division.
NFC West home teams are 6-3 ATS outside the division.
AFC East underdogs are 3-5 ATS outside the division.
Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in AFC North divisional games.
AFC South underdogs are 11-5 ATS outside the division.
AFC West underdogs are 0-5 ATS outside the division.

— UNLV’s football program is 6-2, their best year in a long time; it turns out that the last time UNLV went thru an entire season with the same starting QB was 1996, when John Denton was the Rebels’ quarterback. Thats a lot of instability at a very important position.

— San Jose State shut Hawai’i out 35-0 Saturday; it was the first time since 1998 that Hawai’i was shut out at home.

— I’m curious about the mechanics of the transfer portal; who contacts who? If Player A wants to bolt his current school, does he have people contract other schools, or do schools contract players who want to bolt? Or both?

— If the World Series goes seven games, Game 7 is Saturday night on FOX, the same time as the Alabama-LSU football game on CBS. Good time for multi-view on YouTube TV.

— Chiefs-Dolphins play Sunday morning at 9:30, in Germany; was this a good idea, having one of the marquis matchups of the season at 9:30am?
Kansas City wanted the game to be in Germany; every team has to play an international game once every eight years, and the Chiefs wanted their game to be in Germany since they have global marketing rights there.

— NFL trades (trade deadline is Tuesday at 4:00):
Giants traded DE Leonard Williams to Seattle, for a 2nd and 5th-round draft pick.
Philadelphia traded DT Kentavius Street and a 2025 7th-round pick to Atlanta, for a 2024 6th-round pick.

— Cardinals benched QB Joshua Dobbs; rookie Clayton Tune will start this week in Cleveland, unless Kyler Murray is deemed healthy enough to make his return from ACL surgery.
 

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Week 9


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Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in net punting yardage:
47.0— AJ Cole, LV
45.3— Michael Dickson, Sea
45.1— Bryan Anger, Dal
44.6— Mitch Wishnowsky, SF
44.2— Johnny Hekker, Caro
44.0— Logan Cooke, Jax

Quote of the Day
“I mean, obviously it sucks that we have to travel nine hours for a home game when Arrowhead is right down the street. But obviously we do have other fans that are all over the world, not just in the United States. So it gives them the opportunity to see some of their favorite players play.”
Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, on traveling to Germany for this week’s game

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the first manager of the Texas Rangers, in 1972?
Hint: I guarantee you’re heard of him, but as a player

Wednesday’s quiz
Raiders lost the Super Bowl after the 2002 season; since then, they’ve had 20 head coaches, not including interim coaches. Next year’s coach will be #21.

Tuesday’s quiz
On the old TV show Friends, Morgan Fairchild played Chandler’s mother.

*************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

— Rangers 5, Diamondbacks 0
Texas won despite not having a hit in the first six innings.
Eovaldi tossed six shutout innings for the Rangers.
Semien hit a two-run homer; Seager was Series MVP. .
Rangers get their first-ever World Series title.
— Fourth World Series ring as a manager for Bruce Bochy, who needs to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, like tomorrow. He has a career record of 20-10 in one-run games in the playoffs.

— Bowling Green 24, Ball State 21
Falcons kicked a 22-yard FG with 3:14 left for the win.
Bowling Green led 14-7 at halftime.
Ball State was 8-13 on 3rd down, Falcons were 4-13.
Bowling Green was +2 in turnovers.

— Akron 31, Kent State 27
1-8 Kent State led 26-10 after three quarters.
Zips drove 57 yards, scored 5-yard TD with 0:26 left for the win.
Kent State averaged 10 yards/pass attempt.
Akron QB Undercuffer was 23-39/298 passing, with 2 TD’s.

— Raiders are starting rookie QB Aiden O’Connell against the Giants Sunday, his 2nd NFL start. So, in the last 72 hours, Raiders have……….
Fired their coach
Fired their GM
Fired their offensive coordinator.
Benched their quarterback.
Somehow, they’re favored against the Giants this week.

— Since 2003, 35 NFL head coaches have been fired during the season; teams that fired the coach are 16-19 SU/19-16 ATS in their first game with the interim coach, but I’m guessing most of them were underdogs.

— Word of the Day: Integrity— being honest and having strong principles.

— Falcons have benched QB Desmond Ridder; Taylor Heinicke will start at home this week against the Vikings. Heinicke has a 12-12-1 record as an NFL starter.

— college football teams who have gone over the total the most this year:
8-0— LSU
8-1— USC, Vanderbilt
7-1— New Mexico
6-1-1— Boston College
7-2— UMass

— college football teams with best records ATS:
7-1— Arizona, UNLV
6-1-1— Oregon, Rutgers
4-2— Miami, OH

— Odds on the Clippers to win the NBA title dropped from 22-1 to 14-1 after they acquired James Harden this week.

— West Virginia’s new point guard, Kerr Kriisa, is suspended for the first nine games this season, after he admitted to accepting impermissible benefits at Arizona. Kriisa scored 9.9 ppg and dished out 5.1 assists/game for the Wildcats last year.

— I’m looking forward to voting next week, but not because of elections or politics or any of that nonsense; we have a new polling place this year, the grade school I graduated from 50 years ago, and it’ll fun to be in the old building again.
Plus, lot of times they have bake sales at polling places; bake sales are a good thing.

— From the “time flies” department: College basketball season starts Monday night, so things will get very busy at Armadillo World HQ. November is a fun time of year.
 

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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 9

Thursday’s game
Titans
(3-4) @ Steelers (4-3)
— Rookie QB Levis threw for 238 yards, 4 TD’s, in his first NFL start.
— Tennessee is 0-3 SU in true road games, losing by 1-24-7 points (1-2 ATS)
— Titans scored 27-27-28 points in wins; they scored 15-3-16-16 in losses.
— Last two games, Tennessee converted 6-24 on third down.
— Titans are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Tennessee is 12-7 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win (0-2 TY)
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers (2-5) so far this season.
— Levis is 1-0 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South underdogs are 11-5 ATS outside the division.
— Five of their seven games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2-1


— QB Pickett was hurt last week (check status)
— Steelers split their four home games SU (underdog in all four).
— Last four games, they were outscored 44-9 in first half.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17-24 points in wins, 7-6-10 in losses.
— Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Pittsburgh has been outgained by 126.4 yards/game this season.
— Last six games, Steelers have a +8 turnover margin.
— Six of seven Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Pitt is 29-16-1 ATS in last 46 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— QB Pickett is 11-8 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


— Steelers won four in row, seven of last nine series games.
— Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last ten visits to Pittsburgh.
— Over is 4-2-1 in last seven meetings.


Sunday’s games
Dolphins
(6-2) vs Chiefs (6-2) (@ Frankfurt, Germany)
— Dolphins’ six wins are over teams with a combined 10-31 record
— Favorites are 7-0 ATS in their games this season.
— Miami scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-17 in losses.
— Last five games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (3-9).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 35 TD’s on 83 drives.
— Away from home, Miami has scored 11 TD’s on 39 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Under McDaniel, Dolphins are 8-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Over is 5-3 in their games, 2-2 away from home.
— Tagovailoa is 27-15 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-4


— Chiefs had 6-game win streak snapped LW in Denver.
— Last three games, Chiefs were outscored 18-13 in second half.
— KC has outscored opponents 134-59 in first half.
— Chiefs have 10 takeaways in their wins (+1), 2 in losses (minus-3)
— KC is 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as a favorite away from home.
— Chiefs held six of last seven opponents under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Last two games, Chiefs ran ball for only 68-62 yards.
— Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games.
— AFC West teams are 7-14 ATS outside thew division.
— Mahomes is 81-21 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 6-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-2


— Chiefs won last three series games, scoring 33-29-34 points.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.


Vikings (4-4) @ Falcons (4-3)
— Rookie QB Hall gets first NFL start for Vikings after Cousins’ injury.
— Minnesota acquired QB Dobbs from Arizona Tuesday.
— Minnesota won last three games, scoring 19-22-24 points.
— Minnesota has seven takeaways in last three games (+4)
— Vikings allowed 13-13-17-10 points in their wins, 27.3 ppg in losses.
— Vikings are 7-8-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
— Minnesota is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
— First NFL start for rookie QB Hall (BYU)
— Last four games, Vikings ran ball for only 70-46-74-63 yards.
— Under is 7-1 in Minnesota games this season.
— NFC North teams are 9-12-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1


— Unclear which QB will start, Heinicke or Ridder (concussion LW)
— Last five games, Atlanta is minus-9 in turnovers (3-12)
— Atlanta is 3-1 SU/1-2-1 ATS at home this year.
— Falcons are 3-10-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Falcons are 4-4, but haven’t led (0-6-2) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 97-49 in first half of games.
— Last two games, Falcons ran ball for 156-140 yards.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 10-11-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Ridder is 6-6 as an NFL starting QB; Heinicke is 12-12-1.
— Under is 13-3 in their last 16 games overall, 6-2 TY.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3-2


— Minnesota won four of last five series games.
— Vikings are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Atlanta.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.


Seahawks (5-2) @ Ravens (6-2)
— Seattle won five of last six games (4-1-1 ATS).
— Seahawks scored 37-37-24-20-24 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 40-6 in second half of their losses.
— Last three games, Seattle converted 16-37 third down plays.
— Seattle is 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Seattle is 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.
— Seahawks are 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games after a win.
— Geno Smith is 27-31 as an NFL starter, 15-13 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 21-21 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 3-1 in Seattle’s last four games.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3-1


— Last five games, Ravens outscored opponents 91-16 in first half.
— Baltimore won four of last five games (3-2 ATS)
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite (2-1 TY)
— Ravens are 10-10 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC opponents.
— Ravens are 9-14 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +4 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 52-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 5-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 11-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1


— Seattle won three of last four series games.
— Seahawks are ATS visits to Baltimore.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.


Cardinals (1-7) @ Browns (4-3)
— Rookie QB Tune could make 1st NFL start here; Dobbs got traded.
— Arizona is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS last five games, losing by 19-14-17-17 points.
— Cardinals have been outscored 121-47 in 2nd half of games.
— Last six games, Arizona gave up 27.7 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 18 of last 21 games SU (8-10 ATS in last 18).
— Cardinals are 8-8 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— QB Murray is 25-32-1 as an NFL starter; Tune is 0-0.
— Arizona is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Arizona is 17-8-1 ATS last 26 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 21 TD’s on 64 drives.
— Five of last seven Cardinal games went over the total.
— Three of four Arizona road games stayed under total.
— NFC West teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-4


— Browns’ last three games (2-1) were decided by total of seven points.
— Last three weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 160-150-155 yards.
— Last 3 weeks, backup QB Walker was 48-97/618, with 1 TD, 5 INT’s
— Browns gave up 3-3-17-38-24 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses.
— Cleveland won/covered three of its four home games.
— Last three games, Cleveland is only 13-44 on third down.
— Cleveland is 8-13-1 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
— Opponents have converted only 26-92 third down plays.
— Under is 4-3 in Cleveland games the season.
— AFC North teams are 11-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Cardinals won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
— Browns lost last four visits to Arizona (1-3 ATS)
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Rams (3-5) @ Packers (2-5)
— Stafford has screwed-up right thumb; unclear if he or Rypien will start.
— Rams lost three of their last four games.
— LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14-17-20 in losses.
— Rams are 2-2 SU/2-1-1 ATS on road this season.
— Rams are 3-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 63-35 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 22-16 with the Rams; Rypien is 2-1 as an NFL starter.
— Rams are 22-14-1 ATS in last 37 games coming of a loss.
— Under is 4-2 in Rams’ last six games.
— NFC West teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: under 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3-1


— Green Bay is 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in its last six games.
— Last four games, Packers were outscored 73-9 in first half.
— Green Bay has three takeaways in last five games (minus-5).
— Packers are 13-13-2 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 41-17 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-6 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as home favorites.
— Green Bay is 1-6 ATS this year in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Green Bay is 4-7 ATS in last eleven games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Packers won eight of last nine series games.
— Rams are 0-6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Wisconsin.
— Over is 8-5 in last 13 meetings.


Buccaneers (3-4) @ Texans (3-4)
— Bucs lost three in row, four of last five games (2-3 ATS).
— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13-18 in losses.
— Bucs have 14 takeaways in seven games (+8 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46-73-78 in losses.
— Tampa Bay has allowed 9 TD’s on 60 drives.
— Bucs are 2-1 SU on road: 20-17 @ Minnesota, 26-9 @ NO, 18-24 @ Buffalo.
— Tampa is 3-0 ATS as road dog this year (6-13-3 from 2017-22)
— Bucs are 7-6-1 in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
— Mayfield is 35-43 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— NFC South underdogs are 5-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-0-1


— Houston won three of last five games (4-1 ATS)
— Texans scored 37-30-20 points in wins (9-20-19-13 in losses)
— Houston outscored last five foes 66-23 in first half.
— Texans are 2-9 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Opponents have converted 45-100 third down plays.
— Houston is 16-21-1 in last 30 games coming off a loss.
— Stroud is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 5-10-2 ATS last 17 games against NFC opponents.
— Houston is 13-8-2 ATS last 23 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— AFC South teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-1


— Texans won last four series games (3-0-1 ATS)
— Buccaneers lost 19-9/28-14 in two visits to this stadium.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games.


Commanders (3-5) @ Patriots (2-6)
— Washington lost five of last six games SU (2-3-1 ATS)
— Commanders scored 31-31 points vs Philly, but lost both games.
— Washington is 1-4 giving up 33+ points, 2-1 if they allow less.
— Last three weeks, Commanders are +4 in turnovers.
— Commanders are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on road this season.
— Washington is 15-13-1 ATS in last 29 games as a home favorite.
— Washington is 8-12 ATS in last 20 games vs AFC opponents.
— Last six weeks, Commanders were outscored 87-54 in 1st half.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 4-5 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
— NFC East teams are 12-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: 5-3 over. Opponents’ team total: over 6-2


— Patriots lost four of their last five games (1-4 ATS).
— Patriots were outscored 82-26 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-6 in turnovers this year.
— Last two games, Patriots have 7 offensive TD’s on 24 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-31 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games vs NFC teams.
— Mac Jones is 18-22 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last five games, Patriots were outgained by 101.6 yards/game.
— Patriots are 14-15-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East favorites are 5-4 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-1. Opponents’ team total: 5-3 over


— New England won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Commanders lost 27-10/52-7 in last two visits to Foxboro.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.


Bears (2-6) @ Saints (4-4)
— Rookie QB Bagent split his first two NFL starts
— Bears are +5 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Chicago scored 40-30 points in its wins; they’re 0-6 otherwise.
— In Bagent’s two starts, Bears were 14-27 on third down.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 122-80 in second half.
— Bears are 11-31 SU/15-25-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 games as road underdogs (1-3 TY).
— Chicago is 16-24-3 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
— Six of their eight games went over the total.
— NFC North underdogs are 4-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-2


— New Orleans is 3-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have seven offensive TD’s on last 24 drives.
— Last three weeks, NO gained 430-407-511 total yards.
— Saints outgained last four opponents, 1,652-1,154.
— Last four weeks, Saints outscored foes 51-24 in second half.
— Saints have been outscored 19-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— Under is 6-2 in Saints’ games this season.
— NFC South home teams are 2-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3


— Saints won last seven series games (5-2 ATS).
— Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to the Big Easy.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Colts (3-5) @ Panthers (1-6)
— Colts lost last three games, giving up 37-39-38 points.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-19 as an NFL starter, 1-3 TY.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37-39-38 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
— Indy won/covered two of its three road games TY.
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all eight games.
— Colts are 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
— since 2013, Colts are 42-30-2 ATS in games coming off loss (3-1 TY).
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 6-2 in Indy’s games this season.
— Indy is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs NFC teams.
— AFC South teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 6-1-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-3


— Carolina won its first game LW, after an 0-6 start (1-5-1 ATS).
— Last three games, Panthers allowed 14 TD’s on 29 drives.
— In Young’s six starts. Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— Opponents are 16 of last 35 on third down plays.
— Carolina is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a home dog (1-1-1 TY).
— Panthers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have been outscored 111-61 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 20-23-1 ATS in last 44 games following a win.
— NFC South teams are 7-14-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


— Frank Reich coached the Colts from 2018-22 (41-35-1)
— Panthers won three of five series games.
— Bears split last two series games played here.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Giants (2-6) @ Raiders (3-5)
— QB Jones (23-36-1 as starter) is expected back for the Giants here.
— Giants lost five of last six games, scoring 10.7 ppg.
— Giants are 2-0-1 ATS in last three games.
— Giants outscored last three opponents 23-7 in first half.
— Giants are averaging only 267.8 yards/game this season.
— Last four games, Giants are +7 in turnovers.
— Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games vs AFC opponents.
— Last five games, Giants were outscored 64-22 in second half.
— Last four games, Giants have 4 TD’s, 28 3/outs on 65 drives.
— Giants are 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 7-1 in Giant games this season.
— Team total: under 6-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-4


— Short week for Las Vegas after their Monday loss in Detroit.
— Raiders lost five of their last seven games.
— Last two games, Raiders ran ball 65 times for only 203 yards.
— Last two games, Las Vegas is 3-18 on third down.
— Opponents are 20 of last 39 on third down.
— Raiders won two of their three home games TY.
— Raiders are 6-3 in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Under is 6-2 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 11-17 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
— WR Adams caught only one pass on seven targets Monday.
— AFC West teams are 7-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-0. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3


— Giants won four of last five series games.
— This is the Giants’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.


Cowboys (5-2) @ Eagles (7-1)
— Five Dallas wins were by a combined score of 171-50.
— Dallas scored 16-10 points in losses, 40-30-38-20-43 in wins.
— Cowboys gave up 222-170 YR in their two losses.
— Cowboys are 2-2 on road, winning 40-0 at Giants, 20-17 at Chargers.
— Dallas is 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road dog (0-0 TY).
— Cowboys are +9 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Dallas is 15-11 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— Dallas is 6-2 ATS last eight games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Dallas allowed 400-421 total yards in its losses.
— Three of last four Cowboy games stayed under the total.
— QB Prescott is 68-42 as an NFL starter.
— NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 ATS in divisional games.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1


— Eagles won seven of first eight games (4-2-2 ATS)
— Weeks 1-5, Philly ran ball for 163.8 yards/game (80-99-59 last 3 games)
— Last four games, Philly is minus-7 in turnovers.
— Last two games, Eagles have nine TD’s on 18 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 14-13-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 10-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles scored 23+ points in all of their wins, 14 in the loss.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 32-14 SU.
— Eagles were 7-12 ATS in last 19 NFC East home games.
— Hurts is 32-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Team total: over 5-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-4


— Dallas won five of last seven series games.
— Cowboys are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Philly.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.


Bills (5-3) @ Bengals (4-3)
— Buffalo split its last four games (0-4 ATS) SU.
— Bills allowed 10-3-20-9-18 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
— Bills have converted 49-101 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— This is first time Buffalo has been a dog since Week 15, 2021.
— Buffalo outscored last seven foes 111-50 in second half.
— Josh Allen is 52-31 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-15-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Buffalo is 11-2 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— AFC East underdogs are 3-5 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-4. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3-1


— Bengals won/covered last three games, giving up 20-13-17 points.
— Last three games, Bengals are +5 in turnovers.
— Cincy is 2-1 at home; all three games were decided by 4 or less points.
— Bengals ran ball for 134 yards LW, their most in any game TY.
— Last five games, Bengals converted only 18-59 third down plays.
— Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Bengals are 10-2 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Cincy averaged 7.6 yards/pass attempt last game, by far their best TY.
— Cincy is 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 4-3 in their games this season.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Bengals won five of last seven series games.
— Bills are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Cincinnati.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.


Monday’s game
Chargers
(3-4) @ Jets (4-3)
— Chargers scored 28-24-30 points in wins; they’re 0-2 scoring less than 24.
— Bolts scored 27.5 ppg in first four games, 17-17-30 in last three.
— Chargers are 1-2 SU on road this season, giving up 27-24-31 points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 4-5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Bolts are 5-3-3 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Chargers have seven takeaways (+4) in wins, three (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 28-29 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 11-39 on 3rd down in LA wins, 21-46 in losses.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last five Charger games.
— AFC West teams are 7-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Jets won last three games, are 3-0-1 ATS in last four
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 91-52 in first half of games.
— Jets gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6/5.8/4.1/4.8 yards/pass attempt- not good.
— Gang Green is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS as a home underdog this year.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-10 ATS as a home underdog
— Last five games, Jets converted 15-74 third down plays.
— Jets have scored eight TD’s, have 27 3/outs on 77 drives.
— Wilson is 11-17 as an NFL starter.
— Jets are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 3-1 in their home games this season.
— Team total: over 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-1


— Chargers won last four series games (2-1-1 ATS).
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Chargers won 14-7/27-17 in last two visits to the Garden State.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
 

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
TEN at PIT08:15 PMPIT -3.0
U 37.0
+500 +500
 

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NFL NOVEMBER BEST BETS !

11/02/2023..............................2 - 0 - 0.............................100.00%..........................+ 10.00

TOTALS....................................2 - 0 - 0.............................100.00%..........................+ 10.00
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
— 76ers 112, Suns 100— Maxey scored 25 points, handed out 10 assists.
— Hornets 125, Pacers 124— Charlotte subs were +39; starters were minus-34.
— Magic 120, Lakers 101— Lebron was +12; they were minus-31 without him.
— Celtics 124, Nets 114— Tatum scored 32 points, grabbed 11 rebounds.
— Nuggets 123, Bulls 101— Jokic had 28 points, 15 rebounds, 9 assists.
— Penguins 10, Sharks 2— San Jose is first team since 1966 to give up 10+ goals in consecutive games.

Quote of the Day
“I’m really proud of our team. In this two week’s time a lot of things went on in the program, and they kept in it..………You’re either quitting or fighting in life. That’s it. I’m really proud because we fought.”
Arkansas coach Sam Pittman

Sunday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft; who was the only QB picked ahead of him that year?

Saturday’s quiz
Orlando Magic drafted Shaquille O’Neal with the 1st pick in the 1992 NBA Draft.

Friday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes played his college football at Texas Tech.

****************************************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….

In football, field position matters; could someone please explain to the over-educated geniuses who advocate going for it on 4th down all the time?
If you go for it on 4th down at midfield and fail, that’s pretty much a turnover, and turnovers are killers in football- they give the opponent’s offense a short field to work with.
Kicking field goals is OK; three points are better than none. Seven points are better than three, obviously, but I’m thinking that getting no points is more of a negative than seven points is a positive.

— Oklahoma State 27, Oklahoma 24
Cowboys win the last meeting in the Bedlam series.
Teams had been playing for 114 years, three years before Oklahoma was a state.
Sooners gained 492 yards, but turned ball over three times (minus-2).
Why can’t these teams keep playing? In this era where $$$ matters so much, you’d think a guaranteed sellout every year would be appealing. Go figure.

— Clemson 31, Notre Dame 23
Tigers led 24-9 at halftime.
Notre Dame completed only 13-30 passes; they turned ball over three times.
Clemson went the whole game without getting called for a penalty.

— Texas 33, Kansas State 30 OT
Texas led 27-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
Teams combined to convert 4-28 third down plays.
K-State went for it on 4th-and-goal from the 3-yard line in OT; they failed.
Pet Peeve of the Week: Recruiting is important in college sports; if you’re in a great game like this one, just kick the FG in OT and keep playing. TV exposure helps recruiting.

— Ole Miss 38, Texas A&M 35
Rebels drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:42 left.
A&M trailed 14-0, scored first TD on 75-yard return of a blocked FG.
Aggies have lost nine road games in a row.
Rebels have trailed in second half in four of their eight wins.

— Arkansas 39, Florida 36, OT
Razorbacks end their six-game losing streak.
Arkansas gained 481 yards; they fired their OC last week, after a 7-3 loss.
Florida missed an extra point and a 44-yard FG.

— Alabama 42, LSU 28
LSU led 28-21 with 8:00 left in third quarter.
Alabama was 11-14 on third down, LSU 4-9
Alabama ran ball 46 times for 288 yards.

— Washington 52, USC 42
Huskies led 35-28 at halftime.
Washington ran ball 42 times for 316 yards.
USC lost three of its last four games, after a 6-0 start.

— Oregon State 26, Colorado 19
Colorado lost five of last six games, after a 3-0 start.
Beavers outgained Colorado, 418-238.
7-2 Oregon State ran ball 46 times for 195 yards.

— Upsets of the Week:
Army (+18.5) 23, Air Force 3
Stanford (+13) 10, Washington State 7
Indiana (+9.5) 20, Wisconsin 14
Temple (+6.5) 32, Navy 18
Arkansas State (+6.5) 37, Louisiana 17
Oklahoma State (+6) 27, Oklahoma 24
Arkansas (+6) 39, Florida 36, OT
Central Michigan (+5.5) 37, Northern Illinois 31


— Word of the Day: Irascible— describing someone who is easily angered.

— Temple 32, Navy 18
EJ Warner was 27-33/402 passing, with four TD’s.
Owls were 6-9 on third down; they survived four turnovers (minus-4).

— Illinois 27, Minnesota 26
Illini backup QB threw a 46-yard TD pass with 0:50 left for the win.
Illinois was 9-17 on third down, Gophers 3-12.
Illini WR Williams caught 13 passes for 131 yards, two TD’s.

— UAB 45, Florida Atlantic 42
Blazers tied game on a 70-yard TD pass with 4:20 left.
Blazers won game on a 26-yard FG with 0:03 left.
UAB led 35-14 with 12:00 left in third quarter.
UAB QB Zeno was 29-35/484, with five TD passes.

— Charlotte 33, Tulsa 26 OT
Tulsa led 17-0 with 5:00 left in first half.
Both teams scored in last minute of regulation.
Tulsa ran ball for 273 yards, was 12-22 on third down.

— Memphis 59, South Florida 50
Both teams need to recruit defensive players.
Total yardage was 583-580, USF.
Memphis is the quietest 7-2 team in the country.

— Army 23, Air Force 3
Air Force was unbeaten (8-0) coming into this game.
Falcons turned ball over six times, losing four fumbles.
This matchup stayed under the total for the 10th year in a row.

— Ohio State 35, Rutgers 16
Rutgers led 9-7 at halftime; then Ohio State got a 93-yard pick-6.
Rutgers had ball in red zone four times: 3 FG’s and the pick-6. No bueno.
Rutgers outgained OSU 361-328, but didn’t cover as an 18-point underdog.

— Iowa 10, Northwestern 7
This game, with lowest total ever, was 0-0 at halftime.
Since 2019, under is 37-19-1 in Iowa games.
Hawkeyes kicked a 52-yard FG with 0:14 left for the win.
 

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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ARI at CLE01:00 PMCLE -13.0
U 38.5
+500 +500
CHI at NO01:00 PMCHI +10.0
U 42.0
+500 +500
LAR at GB01:00 PMGB -4.0
U 38.0
+500 +500
SEA at BAL01:00 PMBAL -6.5
U 45.0
+500 +500
WAS at NE01:00 PMWAS +3.0
U 40.5
+500 +500
MIN at ATL01:00 PMATL -3.5
U 38.5
+500 +500
TB at HOU01:00 PMHOU -2.5
U 39.5
+500 +500
IND at CAR04:05 PMIND -1.5
O 44.5
+500 +500
DAL at PHI04:25 PMPHI -3.0
O 46.5
+500 +500
NYG at LV04:25 PMNYG +1.0
U 37.5
+500 +500
BUF at CIN08:20 PMCIN -2.0
U 51.0
+500 +500
 
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