NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

[Cnotes53]

NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/23/2023...............................2 - 0...............................100.00%...................................+ 10.00
10/22/2023...............................6 - 8 - 2..........................42.85%....................................- 14.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00

TOTALS..................................37 - 40 - 3...........................48.05%...................................- 35.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads for this week’s NFL:
— Buccaneers @ Buffalo (-8)
— Saints @ Indianapolis (-1)
— Jaguars (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
— Texans (-3) @ Carolina
— Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington
— Patriots @ Miami (-10.5)

Quote of the Day
“In anger, we should refrain both from speech and action.”
Pythagoras

Tuesday’s quiz
What is the only NFC team that has never played in a Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
Hall of Famer Dick Vermeil coached the Philadelphia Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Sunday’s quiz
The first Super Bowl was played in the Los Angeles Coliseum; Packers 35, Chiefs 10.

*****************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

— Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a 3-year, $186M contract with the Milwaukee Bucks, meaning he will earn $62M a year, which works out to $756,097 per game.
Antetokounmpo averaged 32.1 minutes/game last year; if he does that this year, it works out to $23,554.44 per minute played.

— NFL Films and HBO also hit the jackpot; Miami Dolphins will be the featured in-season team for Hard Knocks this year, it was announced
Monday. Coach Mike McDaniel should be interesting to see in action.
Colts/Cardinals were the in-season teams on Hard Knocks the last two years. Dolphins were last featured on Hard Knocks in the summer of 2012.

— Vikings 22, 49ers 17
Kirk Cousins was 35-45/378 passing, with two TD’s.
Vikings on their first six drives: 52 plays, 377 yards, 22 points.
Minnesota converted 8-13 third down plays.
All seven Viking games have been decided by 8 or fewer points.
Both teams turned the ball over on their first possession.
49ers were outgained 786-540 in their last two games.
McCaffrey carried ball 15 times for only 45 yards.
49ers are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Minnesota.

— College football conference trends:
AAC— home favorites 4-10 ATS, home underdogs 2-7
ACC— home underdogs 8-3 ATS
Big X— home underdogs 8-3 ATS
Big 14— home favorites 7-9 ATS, home underdogs 2-10 ATS
C-USA— home favorites 5-6 ATS, home underdogs 2-5
MAC— home favorites 6-7 ATS
Mountain West— home favorites 4-7 ATS
Pac-12— home underdogs 6-3 ATS
SEC— home favorites 11-7 ATS, home underdogs 4-8
Sun Belt— home favorites 7-8 ATS

— NFL divisional trends:
NFC East teams are 12-9-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North teams are 9-11-1 ATS outside the division
NFC South teams are 4-14 ATS outside the division
NFC West home teams are 5-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East home teams are 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North home teams are 6-2-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South teams are 11-5-1 ATS outside the division
AFC West teams are 6-12 ATS outside the division

— Saturday afternoon, the 4:00-7:00 window, I’m watching four games on one screen on my YouTube TV account; one game each from the Big 14, Big X, SEC, Pac-12.
Big 14— Minnesota-Iowa— Both teams should’ve punted on first down.
Big X— Texas-Houston— Teams that jumped from AAC to the Big X have some catching up to do.
SEC— Ole Miss-Auburn— Rebels are lucky to have Lane Kiffin as coach; he’s been a head coach in the NFL.
Pac-12— Washington State-Oregon— Wazzu QB Ward threw for 438 yards in a losing cause.
Interesting contrast in styles between the leagues.

— Utah declared that QB Cam Rising is out for the year with a knee injury; Utes are 6-1 with backup QB Barnes under center.

— When baseball free agency starts, obviously Shohei Ohtani will be a big topic, but there is another Japanese pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is expected to draw lot of interest from teams with lot of $$$ who need pitching.

— Word of the Day: Focus— the ability to concentrate attention or to sustain concentration.
If you’re easily distracted, you lack focus.

— Long time ago, there was a 2B named Nellie Fox; he is a Hall of Famer who played 19 years in the major leagues. In his career, Fox struck out only 216 times in 10,351 plate appearances.
This season, Kyle Schwarber struck out 215 times in 720 plate appearances.

— Outside Camden Yards in Baltimore, there is a statue of the great 3B Brooks Robinson, who passed away recently. It is a pretty normal statue of Robinson playing the field, except that his glove is gold, as it should be.

— Last week was the 50th anniversary of the day when Rams’ DE Fred Dryer got two safeties in the same game, a 22-5 win over Green Bay. Both safeties were in the 4th quarter and it was two different QB’s he sacked for the safeties (Scott Hunter, Jim Del Gaizo).

— What bowl game is going to get stuck with the Iowa Hawkeyes? Iowa is 6-2, but their offense is putrid; they’ve gained 300+ yards in only one game this year- they lost 12-10 to Minnesota Saturday, gaining a total of 127 yards, on 56 plays. Not good.
Former Rams’ coach Mike Martz is out there somewhere; why wouldn’t Iowa call a guy like Martz and hire him to jazz up their offense? Iowa’s last two games were 15-6/12-10; if they hired a real offensive coordinator like Martz, 15-6/12-10 would be a thing of the past.

— Monday was the first time since 2004 that the baseball playoffs had a Game 6 and a Game 7 on the same day.

— Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 1
Arizona scored three runs in top of the second inning.
Pham and Gurriel hit back-to-back home runs.
Merrill Kelly tossed 5 IP, giving up a run; they took him out after 90 pitches.
Game 7 is tonight in Philadelphia.

— Rangers 11, Astros 4
Adolis Garcia homered twice; he hit five home runs in the last four games.
Texas scored 20 runs in winning Games 6-7 of this series.
Road team won all seven games in this series.
Rangers host the World Series, starting Friday night.

— Baseball is a fascinating business; on February 10, 2021, the Rangers designated Adolis Garcia for assignment and cleared a spot on the 40-man roster for P Mike Foltynewicz.
All 29 of the other teams let Garcia clear waivers, and on February 13, 2021, Texas invited him as a non-roster player to camp. Lucky for them they did.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 8

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 8

Thursday’s game
Buccaneers (3-3) @ Bills (4-3)
— Bucs lost three of their last four games.
— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13 in losses.
— Bucs have 13 takeaways in six games (+7 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46-73 in losses.
— Tampa Bay has allowed 9 TD’s on 60 drives.
— Bucs won both road games: 20-17 @ Minnesota, 26-9 @ New Orleans
— Tampa is 2-0 ATS as road dog this year (6-13-3 from 2017-22)
— Bucs are 7-5-1 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 5-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC teams.
— Mayfield is 35-42 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— NFC South underdogs are 3-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-0-1


— Last three games, Buffalo scored one first half TD on 15 drives.
— Bills allowed 10-3-20-9 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
— Bills have converted 42-88 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 26-21-1 ATS in last 48 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo is 14-9-1 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Bills outscored last six foes 104-42 in second half.
— Bills are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC opponents.
— Josh Allen is 51-31 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Six of their last nine home games went over the total.
— AFC East favorites are 5-3 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1


— Home team won last six series games.
— Buccaneers lost 30-27/33-20 in last two trips to Buffalo.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Sunday’s games
Saints (3-4) @ Colts (3-4)
— New Orleans lost four of its last five games (2-3 ATS)
— Saints have only 10 offensive TD’s on 76 drives.
— Saints outgained last two opponents, 1,141-783.
— Saints are 2-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have been outscored 16-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— NO is 7-10-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 6-1 in Saints’ games this season.
— Saints are 16-10-2 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
— NFC South teams are 4-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 5-2


— Last four weeks, Colts were outscored 74-37 in first half.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-18 as an NFL starter, 1-2 TY.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37-39 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
— Indy lost three of its four home games SU TY.
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all seven games.
— Colts are 1-5 ATS last six games as a home favorite.
— since 2013, Colts are 42-29-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Colts are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 5-2 in Indy’s games this season.
— AFC South teams are 11-6 ATS outside the division.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 5-1-1. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


— New Orleans won last four series games.
— Saints split their last two visits to Indianapolis.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Jaguars (5-2) @ Steelers (4-2)
— Jaguars won/covered their last four games.
— Jacksonville outscored last four opponents 66-16 in first half.
— Jaguars scored 21-23-25-37-31 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Jaguars are 9-16 ATS last 25 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jaguars are 12-13 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win (3-1 TY).
— Jags are 2-0 in true road tilts: 31-21 (-5) @ Colts, 31-24 (+1) @ Saints.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +13 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— AFC South teams are 11-6 ATS outside the division.
— Pederson is 61-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 17-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 4-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Steelers won/covered four of their last five games.
— Pittsburgh won/covered two of three home games.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17-24 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 35-6 in first half.
— Steelers have been outgained by 109.8 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in last nine games decided by 8 or less points.
— Five of six Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers have 11 takeaways in last five games (+7)
— Pitt is 29-15-1 ATS in last 45 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— QB Pickett is 11-7 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


— Steelers won five of last seven series games.
— Jaguars covered their last four visits to Pittsburgh.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.


Texans (3-3) @ Panthers (0-5)
— Houston won three of last four games (4-0 ATS)
— Texans scored 37-30-20 points in wins (9-20-19 in losses)
— Houston outscored last four foes 59-17 in first half.
— Texans are 1-4 ATS in last five post-bye games.
— Opponents have converted 40-86 third down plays.
— since 2016, Houston is 1-5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Stroud is 3-3 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 5-9-2 ATS last 16 games against NFC opponents.
— Houston is 13-7-2 ATS last 22 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— AFC South teams are 11-6 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1


— Carolina lost its first six games (0-5-1 ATS).
— Last two games, Panthers allowed 12 TD’s on 20 drives.
— In Young’s starts. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/4.0/5.8/4.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— Panthers are 24-66 on 3rd down in Young’s starts, 10-19 in Dalton’s start
— Opponents are 11 of last 23 on third down plays.
— Carolina is 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a home dog (0-1-1 TY).
— Panthers are 4-7 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC teams.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Panthers have been outscored 105-52 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in last four post-bye games.
— NFC South teams are 4-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2


— Carolina won/covered last four series games.
— Teams split last two meetings in Charlotte.
— Under is 5-1 in last six series games.


Eagles (6-1) @ Commanders (3-4)
— Eagles won six of first seven games (4-2-1 ATS)
— Weeks 1-5, Philly ran ball for 163.8 yards/game (80-99 last 2 games)
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 14-13-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Philly won/covered three of its four road games.
— Eagles scored 23+ points in all of their wins, 14 in the loss.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 31-14 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-8 ATS as road favorites (3-1 TY).
— Last 3 years, Eagles were 2-7 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Hurts is 31-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Team total: over 4-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Washington lost four of last five games SU (2-3 ATS)
— Last two games, Commanders are 3-25 on third down.
— Washington is 1-3 giving up 33+ points, 2-1 if they allow less.
— Commanders’ only TD drives last two weeks: 11-47-24-21 yards.
— Commanders are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS at home this season.
— Washington is 9-11-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home underdog.
— Washington is 7-14 ATS in last 21 NFC East home games.
— Last five weeks, Commanders were outscored 77-37 in 1st half.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 4-4 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 9-12 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: 4-3 over. Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


— Eagles (-8) beat Washington 34-31 in OT in Week 4.
— Philly won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.


Rams (3-4) @ Cowboys (4-2)
— LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14-17 in losses.
— Rams are 2-1 SU/2-0-1 ATS on road this season.
— Rams are 3-1 when they run ball for 90+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 53-24 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-8-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 96-108-1 as an NFL starter, 22-15 with the Rams.
— Stafford went to high school in Dallas.
— Rams changed kickers on Tuesday.
— Rams are 22-13-1 ATS in last 36 games coming of a loss.
— Under is 4-1 in Rams’ last five games.
— NFC West teams are 9-4-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1


— Four Dallas wins were by a combined score of 128-30.
— Dallas scored 16-10 points in losses, 40-30-38-20 in wins.
— Cowboys gave up 222-170 YR in their two losses.
— Cowboys won their two home games, 30-10/38-3.
— Dallas is 12-5 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are +9 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Dallas is 5-2 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Dallas allowed 400-421 TY in losses; 171-215-253-272 in wins.
— Last three Cowboy games stayed under the total.
— QB Prescott is 67-42 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 11-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Rams are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Dallas.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Patriots (2-5) @ Dolphins (5-2)
— Patriots lost three of their last four games.
— Patriots were outscored 65-19 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-7 in turnovers this year.
— Last two games, Patriots have 5 offensive TD’s on 17 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-30 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last 3+ years, Patriots are 5-5 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Mac Jones is 18-21 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last four games, Patriots were outgained by 84 yards/game.
— Patriots are 3-5 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.


— Under is 5-1-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 6-1. Opponents’ team total: 4-3 over
— Dolphins’ five wins are over teams with a combined 8-25 record
— Miami won/covered five of first seven games, scoring 29 ppg.
— Last four games, Miami is minus-5 in turnovers (2-7).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 31 TD’s on 73 drives.
— At home, Miami has scored 20 TD’s on 34 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in last nine AFC East home games.
— Dolphins are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 4-3 in their games, 2-1 at home.
— Tagovailoa is 26-15 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


— Miami (-3) won 24-17 in Foxboro in Week 2.
— Dolphins won four of last five series games.
— Patriots are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Miami.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.


Jets (3-3) vs Giants (2-5)
— Jets won last two games, covered last three.
— Jets scored 22-31-20 points in wins, 10-10-20 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 88-45 in first half of games.
— Jets gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6/5.8/4.1 yards/pass attempt- not good.
— Gang Green is 1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— Last four games, Jets converted 13-59 third down plays.
— Jets are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a favorite (0-0 TY).
— Jets have scored seven TD’s, have 20 3/outs on 63 drives.
— Wilson is 10-17 as an NFL starter.
— Jets are 5-9 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Jets are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC East favorites are 5-3 ATS outside the division.
— Three of their last five games went over the total.
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1


— Giants scored 9-14 points in QB Taylor’s two starts.
— Giants were 15-35 on 3rd down in those games (26-73 first five games)
— Giants lost four of their last five games, covered last two.
— Giants outscored last two opponents 20-0 in first half.
— Giants are averaging only 278.4 yards/game this season.
— Last three games, Giants are +5 in turnovers.
— Giants are 6-1 ATS in last seven games vs AFC opponents.
— Last five games, Giants were outscored 58-15 in second half.
— Last four games, Giants have 3 TD’s, 17 3/outs on 51 drives.
— Giants are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 6-1 in Giant games this season.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


— These teams share this stadium; no home field edge for either.
— Jets won last two meetings, 34-27/23-20
— Over is 3-2 in last five series games.


Falcons (4-3) @ Titans (2-4)
— Falcons scored 16 or fewer points in four of last five games.
— Last four games, Atlanta is minus-9 in turnovers (2-11)
— Atlanta is 1-1 in true road games, L20-6 at Detroit, W16-13 @ Tampa.
— Falcons are 4-3, but haven’t led (0-5-2) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 83-46 in first half of games.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 5-9-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Ridder is 6-5 as an NFL starting QB, 1-4 on the road.
— since 2019, Atlanta is 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Atlanta is 14-22-2 ATS in last 38 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 1-5-1 ATS in last seven games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 13-2 in their last 15 games overall, 6-1 TY.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-2


— QB Tannehill was banged up in last game (check status)
— Tennessee won its last seven post-bye games (6-0-1 ATS)
— Titans scored 27-27 points in wins; they scored 15-3-16-16 in losses.
— Tennessee lost 11 of its last 13 games SU.
— Titans won/covered two of their three home games.
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers (2-5) so far this season.
— Tannehill is 82-72 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Last two games, Titans were outscored 28-9 in first half.
— AFC South teams are 11-6 ATS outside the division.
— Five of their six games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2-1


— Falcon coach Smith worked for the Titans from 2011-20.
— Titans won three of last five series games.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
— Teams split last two series games played here.


Vikings (3-4) @ Packers (2-4)
— Short week for Vikings after their impressive win Monday.
— All seven Minnesota games have been decided by 8 or less points.
— LY, Minnesota was 11-0 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has six takeaways in last two games (+4)
— Vikings allowed 13-13-17 points in their wins, 27.3 ppg in losses.
— Vikings are 6-8-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Minnesota is 7-9 ATS last 16 NFC North road games.
— Cousins is 76-70-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Last three games, Vikings ran ball for only 70-46-74 yards.
— Under is 6-1 in Minnesota games this season.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1


— Last four games, Packers were outscored 63-6 in first half.
— Last four games, Packers outscored foes 62-24 in 2nd half.
— Green Bay converted 14 of last 37 third down plays.
— Last four games, Packers are minus-5 in turnovers.
— Packers are 13-13-2 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 41-10 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-5 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 9-4 ATS in last 13 NFC North home games.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Green Bay is 4-6 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


— Teams split last six series games.
— Vikings are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.


Browns (4-2) @ Seahawks (4-2)
— Browns won last two games, by total of three points.
— QB Watson has bruised shoulder (check status)
— Last two weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 160-150 yards.
— Last 2 weeks, backup QB Walker was 33-66/370, with no TD’s, 3 INT’s
— Browns gave up 3-3-17-38 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses.
— Cleveland is 1-1 on road: L22-26 at Steelers, W39-38 at Colts.
— Last two games, Cleveland is only 7-29 on third down.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 7-9 ATS as a road dog (0-0 TY).
— Cleveland is 11-19-2 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Opponents have converted only 22-80 third down plays.
— Under is 4-2 in Cleveland games the season.
— AFC North teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3


— Seattle won/covered four of last five games.
— Seahawks scored 37-37-24-20 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 40-6 in second half of their losses.
— Last two games, Seattle converted 12-25 third down plays.
— Seattle is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Seattle is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Seahawks are 10-15 ATS in last 25 games after a win.
— Geno Smith is 26-31 as an NFL starter, 14-13 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 20-21 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 9-4-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


— Seahawks won four of last six series games.
— Browns lost 30-13/34-7 in last two visits to Seattle.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.


Chiefs (6-1) @ Broncos (2-5)
— Chiefs won last six games, by 8-31-3-7-11-14 points (5-1 ATS).
— Chiefs converted 36 of last 65 third down plays.
— KC has outscored opponents 125-45 in first half.
— Chiefs have five takeaways in last two games (+1 turnovers)
— KC is 11-14-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road favorite (2-1 TY).
— Chiefs held five of last six opponents under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 17-24-1 ATS in last 42 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 4-5 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their games this season.
— Mahomes is 81-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-1


— Broncos are 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS so far this season.
— Last three games, Denver scored three TD’s on 29 drives.
— Denver’s two wins are by a total of five points.
— Broncos led four of its seven games at halftime.
— Denver has been outscored 116-72 in 2nd half of games.
— Last five games, Denver was outscored 30-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last five weeks, Broncos were outgained by 161.6 yards/game.
— Broncos are 11-6-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.
— Four of last six Bronco games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 119-76-1 as an NFL starter, 6-16 with Denver.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


— Chiefs (-10.5) beat Denver 19-8 at home two weeks ago.
— Chiefs outgained them 389-197 in that game.
— Kansas City won the last 16 series games.
— Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in last nine visits to Denver.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Bengals (3-3) @ 49ers (5-2)
— Bengals won three of their last four games, before their bye week.
— Cincy is 1-2 on road, scoring three points in both losses.
— Bengals haven’t run ball for more than 93 yards in any game TY.
— Last four games, Bengals converted only 15-51 third down plays.
— Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog.
— Bengals are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games vs NFC opponents.
— Cincy hasn’t averaged 6.0 yards/pass attempt in any game this year.
— Cincy is 2-6 ATS in last eight post-bye games (2-1 in last three).
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


— 49ers lost last two games, were outgained 786-540, scoring 17-17 points.
— SF scored 30-30-30-35-42 points in 5-0 start (4-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 88-39 in 2nd half.
— First 5 games, SF ran ball for 156.4 yards/game (108-65 last 2 games).
— 49ers are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— 49ers are 3-0 SU/ATS at home TY, winning by 18-19-32 points.
— 49ers are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +22 in turnovers (+8 TY)
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 12-3 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 9-4-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


— 49ers won/covered four of last five series games.
— Bengals split last two visits to Santa Clara; underdog covered both.
— 49ers beat Cincinnati in two Super Bowls a long time ago.


Ravens (5-2) @ Cardinals (1-6)
— Last four games, Ravens outscored opponents 77-9 in first half.
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only six TD’s on 79 drives.
— Baltimore is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite (0-1 TY)
— Ravens are 10-9 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
— Ravens are 9-13 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +2 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 51-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 5-2 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1-1


— Arizona is 0-4 SU/ATS last four games, losing by 19-14-17-10 points.
— Cardinals have been outscored 104-30 in 2nd half of games.
— Last five games, Arizona gave up 27 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 17 of last 20 games SU (7-10 ATS in last 17).
— Cardinals are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— QB Dobbs is 1-8 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-8 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 17 TD’s on 53 drives.
— Four of last six Cardinal games went over the total.
— All three Arizona home games went over.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Baltimore won five of last six series games.
— Ravens won two of last three visits to Arizona.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.


Bears (2-5) @ Chargers (2-4)
— Rookie QB Bagent is 31-43/243 passing in his first two NFL games
— Bagent won his first NFL start LW; this is his first road start.
— Chicago lost five of first seven games, beating Raiders, Commanders.
— Last four games, Bears outscored opponents, 68-25 in first half.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 116-74 in second half.
— Bears are 11-30 SU/15-24-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— First 4 games, Bears were minus-4 in TO’s; they’re +3 last three games.
— Chicago is 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games as road underdogs.
— Chicago is 2-8 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
— Six of their seven games went over the total.
— NFC North teams are 8-11-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


— Chargers are 0-2 since their bye, losing to Cowboys/Chiefs.
— Bolts scored 27.5 ppg in first four games, 17-17 in last two.
— Chargers lost two of three home games this season.
— under Staley, Chargers are 7-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 8-5-3 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— Chargers have five takeaways (+3) in wins, three (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 27-29 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 21-46 in losses.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 8-8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Charger games.
— AFC West teams are 6-13 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


— Bears won three of last five series games.
— Teams split last two meetings in California.


Monday’s game
Raiders (3-4) @ Lions (5-2)
— Last two games, Raiders ran ball 47 times for only 123 yards.
— QB Garoppolo (back) didn’t play LW (check status).
— Hoyer is 16-25 as a starter; rookie O’Connell is 0-1.
— Hoyer’s last win as a starter was back in 2016, against Detroit.
— Raiders lost last three road games, by 28-17-18 points.
— Raiders are 15-10 in last 25 games as a road underdog.
— Under is 5-2 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 11-16 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Opponents converted 14 of last 25 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 6-13 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-0. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Lions got smoked LW; under Campbell, they’re 14-9 ATS off a loss.
— Lions gave up 37-38 points in their two losses.
— Detroit won/covered four of its last five games.
— Lions won/covered two of its three home games.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 28-12-1 ATS overall.
— Opponents converted only six of last 20 third down plays.
— Last four games, Lions are +5 in turnovers (6-1).
— Goff is 61-50-1 as an NFL starter, 17-19-1 with the Lions.
— NFC North teams are 8-11-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


— Lions won four of last five series games (3-1-1 ATS)
— Raiders lost 18-13/23-13 in last two visits to the Motor City.
— Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Passing yardage leaders in college football:
2,576— Michael Penix, Wash
2,573— Jayden Daniels, LSU
2,433— Brayden Schager, Hawai’i
2,420— Shedeur Sanders, Colo
2,280— Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
2,277— Caleb Williams, USC

Quote of the Day
“It’s silly, silly meaning my genuine feeling is that we have too many smart people that have looked at this and said we should be doing it and we haven’t taken the time to actually move it forward.”
LSU football coach Brian Kelly, on why the SEC hasn’t adopted headset communication between the sidelines and the QB, which would eliminate sign stealing issues

Thursday’s quiz
Which NFL team is the only one that hasn’t covered a spread (0-5-1) so far this season?

Wednesday’s quiz
Chris Paul has been in the NBA for 18 years; he played his college basketball at Wake Forest.

Tuesday’s quiz
Detroit Lions are the only NFC team that has never played in a Super Bowl.

*********************************************

Two dens for Thursday: NHL trends, and a story from the past​

NHL trends (thru October 25)
I’ll try to post this once a week……..

Anaheim 2-4
— lost three of last four games.
— Ducks are 1-2 at home, 1-2 on road
— under 5-1

Arizona 3-3
— 1-0 at home, 2-3 on road.
— over 3-2 on road

Boston 6-0
— won all six of their games.
— under 2-0 at home, 3-1 on road.
— allowed seven goals in six games.

Buffalo 3-4
— 2-3 at home, 1-1 on road.
— under 5-2, 4-1 at home

Calgary 2-4-1
— lost five of last six games.
— 1-1 at home, 1-5 on road.
— over 4-3
— scored four goals in last three games

Carolina 3-4
— lost last three games, outscored 16-8
— 1-0 at home, 2-4 on road.
— over 6-1

Chicago 2-5
— lost five of last six games.
— 0-2 at home, 2-3 on road.
— under 6-1
— last three games, were outscored 12-3

Colorado 6-0
— Colorado won all six of its games
— 2-0 at home, 4-0 on road.
— over 3-3
— outscored opponents 28-12

Columbus 3-2-1
— 2-3 at home, 1-0 on road.
— under 4-1 on road

Dallas 4-0-1
— won four of first five games
— only loss was in OT
— 2-0 at home, 2-1 on road.
— under 4-1
— three of five games went to OT.

Detroit 5-1-1
— won five of last six games
— 3-1 at home, 2-1 on road.
— last four games went over total.

Edmonton 1-5
— lost five of first six games.
— 0-2 at home, 1-3 on road.
— over 3-1 on road

Florida 3-3
— won three of last four games.
— 2-1 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 2-1 at home, over 2-1 on road

Los Angeles 3-2-1
— won three of last four games.
— 1-3 at home, 2-0 on road.
— over is 5-1, 4-0 at home

Minnesota 3-2-1
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— last five games went over.
— allowed 6 goals in wins, 19 in losses.

Montreal 3-2-1
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— over 3-3

Nashville 3-4
— 2-2 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 4-1-1 last six games

New Jersey 3-2-1
— 1-3 at home, 2-0 on road.
— over is 6-0
— 4 of 6 games decided by one goal

NY Islanders 2-2-1
— lost last three games.
— 2-2 at home, 0-1 on road.
— under is 3-2
— allowed 2 goals in wins, 15 in losses

NY Rangers 4-2
— won three of last four games.
— 1-1 at home, 3-1 on road.
— under 5-1, 2-0 at home

Ottawa 3-3
— 3-2 at home, 0-1 on road.
— over 6-0
— allowed 5 goals in wins, 16 in losses

Philadelphia 3-3
— 2-0 at home, 1-3 on road.
— under 3-1 in their last four games.
— allowed 3 goals in wins, 13 in losses

Pittsburgh 2-4
— lost last three games, giving up 14 goals.
— 1-2 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 2-1 at home, 2-1 on road

St Louis 2-3
— 2-1 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under is 4-1
— scored 11 goals in five games

San Jose 0-6
— lost their first six games.
— 0-4 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under is 4-1-1
— scored eight goals in six games

Seattle 2-5
— lost five of first seven games.
— 1-2 at home, 1-3 on road.
— under is 5-2, 3-1 on road

Tampa Bay 3-4
— 3-1 at home, 0-3 on road.
— over 3-1 at home, 2-1 on road
— 0-2 in OT/SO

Toronto 4-2
— 2-1 at home, 2-1 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games
— 2-0 in OT/SO
— scored 21 goals in wins, 2 in losses

Vancouver 4-2
— 1-0 at home, 3-2 on road.
— over 4-2

Vegas 7-0
— won their first seven games.
— 4-0 at home, 3-0 on road.
— under 4-0 home, over 2-1 road

Washington 1-4
— lost four of first five games.
— 1-2 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under 4-1

Winnipeg 3-3
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— over 2-1-1 home, 1-1 road
— allowed 14 goals in first four games, 4 goals in last two games.

**********************************************

A story from the past……..​

One of my favorite movies was on today, Searching for Bobby Fischer; Joe Mantegna is a sportswriter who is surprised to find out that his 11-year old son is a chess prodigy. It is a great movie: Mantegna, Ben Kingsley, Lawrence Fishburne, William H Macy.
Anyway, when I was in 8th grade 50 years ago, chess was a big deal. Bobby Fischer was a quirky chess grandmaster who was playing Russian Boris Spassky for the world title, and it got a ton of attention— for a couple years in the early 70’s, chess was a big deal.
A friend of my parents had taught me how to play; in May of 1973, there was a tournament of all the Catholic grade schools in Albany County, probably 50 or so kids on a Saturday morning. Two kids from our school went; I had never beaten the other kid. Ever.

So our 8th grade teacher picks us up at the other kid’s house to go to the tournament, but we played a game before he got there, and I beat him.
This had never happened before.
We get to the tournament, played in a ratty old gym, and the games begin. I won my first game, but the other kid, who seriously was a much better player than me, he got beat and just like that, he was eliminated. He very rarely played sports as a kid, and the competition apparently wasn’t his thing. I sucked at sports, but enjoyed playing.

Thinking about it, it was a lot like the scenes in this movie; just a bunch of nerdy kids hunched over chess boards, studying their moves.
While my parents’ friend taught me how to play chess, I had my own ideas, which weren’t better ideas, but I was incapable of grinding out moves, playing patterns, the way great players do.

I just played fast, got my queen out as quickly as possible, tried to do damage with the queen, and it often got people off their games, because it was different.

So I win two more games, and now there are a lot fewer kids in the gym; my 4th game, the board is set up with plastic chess pieces. My opponent requests that we switch to a wooden chess set, a classic Bobby Fischer mind game move, which I had no idea of at the time.
He crushed me, not even close and my teacher took the two of us home. I was happy that at least I won a few games— had never played in a tournament before.

The phone rings in our house and it is a nun from the chess tournament; I had lost, but I wasn’t done playing yet, there were still games to be played to determine who won the championship, so my father drove me back to the gym and he had to sit there watching his nerdy kid play chess.
I won two more games, and the whole event came down to this: I was playing this girl in the last game of the tournament. If she won, she won the championship and I finished 3rd.

If I won, the jerk who beat me won the championship and I finished 2nd. (don’t ask, I can’t remember how/why they ran the tournament like this, but they did)

Seriously, I didn’t like that kid after he beat me; I went over to look at the 2nd/3rd place prizes. If the 3rd place prize was good, I was considering losing on purpose so he wouldn’t win the tournament, but the 3rd place price was cruddy, and the 2nd place prize was this small plastic scroll that at least looked like a trophy, so I tried to win.

(This is where I realize that I was an over-thinker, even at age 13)
Anyway, we sit down and play the last game; my opponent was very nervous; her hand was shaking when she moved her chess pieces. It didn’t take long to beat her, and the jerk won the championship trophy.
50 years later, the small plastic scroll is still hanging in my living room. That was a fun day.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 8

• The Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games.
• The Bills are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The Bills are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
• The Bills are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games.
• The Buccaneers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against Buffalo.
• The Buccaneers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against Buffalo.
• The total has gone UNDER in eight of Tampa Bay's last 10 road games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo's last six games against Tampa Bay.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TB at BUF	08:15 PM	BUF -10.0 O 43.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
10/26/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	- 1100	Detail
10/23/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
10/22/2023	8-12-2	40.91%	-2600	Detail
10/19/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
10/16/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/15/2023	12-11-1	52.08%	-50	Detail
10/12/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/09/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
10/08/2023	10-13-1	43.75%	-2150	Detail
10/05/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/02/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
10/01/2023	11-10-1	52.27%	+0	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/26/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/23/2023...............................2 - 0...............................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
10/22/2023...............................6 - 8 - 2............................42.85%....................................- 14.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1...........................52.27%...................................+ 00.00

TOTALS..................................37 - 42 - 3...........................46.83%...................................- 46.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
All-time leaders in rushing touchdowns:
164— Emmitt Smith
145— LaDainian Tomlinson
123— Marcus Allen
120— Adrian Peterson
110— Walter Payton
106— Jim Brown

Quote of the Day
“I think everyone should go to college and get a degree, and then spend six months as a bartender and six months as a cab driver. Then they would really be educated.”
Al McGuire

Friday’s quiz
Where did Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian play his college football?
Hint: he was a quarterback

Thursday’s quiz
Carolina Panthers are only NFL team that hasn’t covered a spread (0-5-1) this season.

Wednesday’s quiz
Chris Paul has been in the NBA for 18 years; he played his college basketball at Wake Forest.

***************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..​

Bills 24, Buccaneers 18
Bills in first half: 33 plays, 234 yards, 17 points.
Bills in 2nd half: 35 plays, 184 yards, 7 points.
Bills allowed 10-3-20-9-18 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
Allen was 31-40/324 passing, with two TD’s.
Buccaneers lost four of their last five games.
Tampa is 3-0 ATS as road dog this year (6-13-3 from 2017-22)
Tampa scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13-18 in losses.
Bucs’ opponents’ team total: under 6-0-1
Tampa Bay threw a Hail Mary 55 yards to the end zone on the last play; had Bucs’ WR Chris Godwin looked up a little quicker, ball would’ve hit him in the hands.

— Steelers/Cardinals are only NFL teams that have been outgained in every game this season; the 4-2 Steelers have been outgained by 110 yards/game, the 1-6 Cardinals by 48.4 yards/game.

— Odd scheduling by the NFL; six teams had last week off, so only 13 games were played, while this week, all 32 teams are playing, then next week, four teams have the week off.

— Sounds like Tennessee Titans are going to start rookie QB Will Levis against Atlanta Sunday, but will also use backup Malik Willis at times. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) like won’t play in the game, which sets Levis up to make his first NFL start.

— Minnesota Vikings have thrown 16 TD passes this season; they haven’t run for a TD yet.

— Air Force football team is 7-0 this season; they’re ranked in the top 20 in the country for the first time since 2002.

— Movie of the Day: Punchline (1988)— A medical school dropout and a housewife/mom try to make it as stand-up comedians. They become friends and help each other out at a Manhattan comedy club.
Tom Hanks, Sally Field, John Goodman; hard to go wrong with those stars.

— Tough stretch for Philadelphia sports teams; they’ve lost seven Game 7’s in a row, with 76ers losing last four Game 7’s, Flyers losing last two and now the Phillies losing Game 7 of the NLCS.

— This year’s Diamondbacks are second team ever (1987 Twins) to make it to the World Series, even though they had a negative run differential (-15) during the regular season. Twins had a minus-20 run differential in ’87.

— Only twice in MLB history has the road team won all seven games in a best-of-7 series; the 2019 Nationals won the World Series, the 2023 Rangers won the ALCS— both of them beat the Astros in those series.

— Odds to win the World Series: Rangers -170, Diamondbacks +150

— Arizona Diamondbacks made the World Series with a payroll of $116.5M, 21st in MLB.
By way of contrast, in the near future, two guys on the Milwaukee Bucks, Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, will be earning a total of $122.1M/year. Two guys.

— Dodgers’ 1B Freddie Freeman has missed only 11 games the last six years, while knocking in 557 runs, scoring 626 runs in 859 games. A Hall of Famer, for sure.

— Jacksonville State 41, FIU 16
Gamecocks are 7-2, in their first year of I-A football.
Jacksonville State ran ball 55 times for 265 yards.
FIU had nine penalties for 92 yards; JSU had one penalty, for 15 yards.

— Texas-El Paso 37, Sam Houston State 34
0-8 Bearkats led 27-13 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
UTEP kicked 32-yard FG with 0:03 left for the win.
Miners ran ball 40 times for 222 yards.

— Virginia Tech 38, Syracuse 10
Hokies led 30-3 at halftime.
Rushing yards: Tech 318, Syracuse 0
3rd down conversions: Tech 8-16, Syracuse 0-9

— Georgia Southern 44, Georgia State 21
Eagles threw for 334 yards (9.3 yards/attempt)
Georgia State ran ball 40 times for 290 yards.
Both teams are 6-2.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Last six World Series champs:
2022- Astros over Phillies
2021- Braves over Astros
2020- Dodgers over Rays
2019- Nationals over Astros
2018- Red Sox over Dodgers
2017- Astros over Dodgers

Quote of the Day
“Its not up to you to take with you and possess what they gave you, its up to you to pass it on to someone else. So, that’s what I tried to do.”
Dusty Baker

Saturday’s quiz
Boston Red Sox have won four World Series since 2004, under which three managers?

Friday’s quiz
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian played his college football at BYU.

Thursday’s quiz
Carolina Panthers are only NFL team that hasn’t covered a spread (0-5-1) this season.

*****************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday​

— Rangers 6, Diamondbacks 5 (11)
Adolis Garcia hit a walk-off home run in the 11th inning.
Corey Seager tied game with a dramatic ninth inning home run.
Texas bullpen threw 6.1 scoreless innings.
Rangers lead series, 1-0.

— If the ghost runner rule in extra innings is such a great rule, why don’t they use it in the playoffs? This is the way baseball was meant to be played, no ghost runners.

— Two years ago, Rangers were 60-102, Arizona was 52-110.
Texas spent a boatload of $$$ to get better, Arizona developed lot of young players, many of whom benefited from the new rules, which help players who run fast.
Diamondbacks also ripped off Miami, acquiring P Zac Gallen for Jazz Chisholm. I’m told that pitching is an important part of baseball.

— Congrats to Dusty Baker, who retired as manager of the Astros this week. Hopefully he’ll get elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame soon, like next year.
Long time ago, when I was 15, I met Dusty Baker at Shea Stadium in New York— he signed an autograph for me and we talked for a few minutes. Good guy who has had a great career.

— Can’t process the fact that next year, Cal, Stanford and SMU are joining the ACC, seeing how the A in ACC stands for “Atlantic”……..as in Ocean.
SMU is in Dallas, in the southwest. Cal/Stanford are in California, which is close to the PACIFIC Ocean, not the ATLANTIC Ocean. Why is Stanford in same league as Boston College, Miami???

— There is a college basketball player who transferred this year, from Cal-San Diego to Vermont. This is a person who doesn’t value good weather; who would rather live in Vermont than in San Diego?

— Florida Atlantic 38, Charlotte 16
FAU threw for 218 yards (8.1 yards/attempt).
Owls are 4-4, need two more wins to be bowl eligible.
Charlotte was 4-19 on 3rd down; they had 12 penalties for 106 yards.

— In the NHL, last time the Montreal Canadiens had a 40-goal scorer was 1994, when Vincent Damphousse scored 40 goals, with 51 assists. That is the longest current drought in the NHL; team that has gone the next-longest without a 40-goal scorer is Arizona (1998).

— Word of the Day: Prodigy— a person who is gifted with exceptional qualities or abilities.

— In the NBA, LA Lakers started the season saying they wanted to put a cap on Lebron James’ minutes played. So far, in two games:
game 1- Lebron played 29:00 (+7). Lakers were minus-19 with him on bench
game 2- Lebron played 35:00 (+22). Lakers were minus-17 with him on bench
In two games, Lakers are +29 with Lebron playing, minus-36 with Lebron on bench.
So much for a minutes restriction.

— Phoenix Suns were docked a 2024 2nd-round draft pick over tampering with Drew Eubanks. NBA found that the Suns engaged in free-agency discussions involving Eubanks before the permitted date (June 30).

— ESPN replaced Jeff Van Gundy/Mark Jackson with Doc Rivers/Doris Burke as the #1 team on its NBA broadcasts. Then again, they have Stephen A Smith and Michael Wilbon on their studio shows, showing how little they care about teaching people about basketball.
Doc Rivers is good as an analyst; the addition of former Warriors GM Bob Meyers should wind up being good. They’ve been in the arena, can tell us what it is like.
Ex-players, ex-coaches, that’s what makes viewers smarter.

— Garrett Temple is in his 14th NBA season; he is playing for Toronto this year, his 12th NBA team, after playing in college at LSU. He could write a very interesting book.

— Dereck Lively scored 16 points for the Mavericks in his NBA debut; the most points he ever scored in college was 13 points, last year for Duke.

— There are 125 international players on NBA rosters this year, a new record, including 26 players from Canada, 14 from France. All in all, 41 countries are represented in the NBA.

— Thunder 108, Cavaliers 105— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 points, took only two foul shots, which suggests that Cleveland didn’t guard him aggressively enough.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Leading scorers in the NBA, early in the season:
41.0— Luka Doncic, Dal
39.0— Damian Lillard, Milw
35.0— Donovan Mitchell, Clev
34.0— Stephen Curry, GSt
33.0— Cam Thomas, Bklyn
32.5— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC

Quote of the Day
“It doesn’t cost a nickel to be nice.”
Sparky Anderson

Sunday’s quiz
Who is the UNLV football player who has had his number retired by the Rebels?
Hint: He is a QB who no longer plays in the NFL

Saturday’s quiz
Boston Red Sox have won four World Series since 2004, under Terry Francona, John Farrell, Alex Cora.

Friday’s quiz
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian played his college football at BYU.

***********************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….​

— Diamondbacks 9, Rangers 1
Tommy Pham was 4-for-4, with two runs scored.
Merrill Kelly is first P in 4 years to pitch 7 innings in a World Series game.
Series is 1-1, resumes Monday night in Arizona.

— This year, four teams moved up in class to the Big X: BYU, Central Florida, Houston and Cincinnati— they’re not faring well. Sometimes it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, instead of a small fish in a big pond.
So far this season (not counting the BYU-Cincinnati game), those four teams are a combined 2-16 straight up, 4-14 against the spread against Big X teams.

— Kansas 38, Oklahoma 33
Jayhawks drove 80 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:55 left.
First score of day was a pick-6 by Kansas 5:35 into game.
This is first time Kansas beat Oklahoma since 1997.

— USC 50, California 49
Cal led 28-17 at halftime.
Golden Bears scored TD with 0:58 left, went for two points but failed.
Caleb Williams was 23-40/369 passing for USC, with two TD’s.

— Georgia Tech 46, North Carolina 42
Tar Heels led 42-32 with 11:00 left in the game.
Not much defense; Tech won total yardage, 635-557.
Yellow Jackets ran ball 48 times for 348 yards (7.3 yards/carry)

— NC State 24, Clemson 17
Wolfpack scored on a pick-6 early in third quarter.
Clemson is 4-4 this year, 5-6 in last 11 games overall.
Tigers outgained State 364-202, but they were minus-2 in turnovers.

— Tulane 30, Rice 28
Since start of last season, Green Wave is 19-3 straight up; would expect to see coach Willie Fritz mentioned for job openings in bigger $$$ leagues later this year.
Rice QB JT Daniels will be an interesting player when the NFL Draft rolls around next spring; he’s had quite the journey thru college:
2018-19— USC— started in 2018
2020-21— Georgia— was mostly the backup there
2022— West Virginia— started there
2023— Rice— Owls are 4-4; their last winning season was in 2014.

— Upsets of the Week:
Northwestern (+13.5) 33, Maryland 27
Georgia Tech (+11.5) 46, North Carolina 42
Kansas (+10) 38, Oklahoma 33
Louisiana (+10) 33, South Alabama 20
UMass (+10) 21, Army 14
NC State (+10) 24, Clemson 17
Miami OH (+7) 30, Ohio U 16

West Virginia (+6.5) 41, Central Florida 28
— Word of the Day: Tragedy— an event causing great suffering, destruction, and distress.
— There are seven I-A head coaches this season who have also been NFL head coaches.
— There are eight unbeaten teams left in college football.

— UCLA 28, Colorado 16
Bruins outgained Colorado, 487-242.
UCLA turned ball over four times, twice in red zone.
Bruins were 7-13 on third down, Colorado 4-15.

— Louisiana 33, South Alabama 20— South Alabama is having an odd year:
beat Oklahoma State as a 7-point underdog.
lost to Central Michigan as a 16-point favorite.
won their previous two games by a combined 110-10
lost this game, as a 10-point favorite

— Miami 29, Virginia 26 OT
Miami tied game on a 48-yard FG with 1:23 left.
Virginia outgained the Hurricanes, 377-276.
Miami wins in overtime for the second week in a row.

— Memphis 45, North Texas 42
Memphis led this game 31-10 at halftime.
Tigers drove 75 yards in 0:35, scored game-winning TD with 0:12 left.
North Texas QB Rogers was 32-49/411 passing, with five TD’s.

— James Madison 30, Old Dominion 27
Unbeaten Dukes improve to 8-0 this season.
JMU led 14-3 early on, held on at the end.
LY, when JMU got in top 25, they lost their next three games; this is an improvement.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 8

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
MIN at GB	01:00 PM	GB +1.0 O 41.5	+500 +500
NO at IND	01:00 PM	NO -2.0 U 44.0	+500 +500
JAC at PIT	01:00 PM	PIT +2.5 U 41.0	+500 +500
NYJ at NYG	01:00 PM	NYG +3.0 U 34.0	+500 +500
ATL at TEN	01:00 PM	TEN +2.5 U 35.5	+500 +500
LAR at DAL	01:00 PM	LAR +7.0 O 46.0	+500 +500
PHI at WAS	01:00 PM	WAS +7.0 U 43.5	+500 +500
NE at MIA	01:00 PM	MIA -8.5 U 46.5	+500 +500
HOU at CAR	01:00 PM	HOU -3.5 U 42.5	+500 +500
CLE at SEA	04:05 PM	SEA -4.5 U 38.5	+500 +500
BAL at ARI	04:25 PM	ARI +10.0 O 44.5	+500 +500
KC at DEN	04:25 PM	DEN +7.0 O 45.5	+500 +500
CIN at SF	04:25 PM	CIN +4.5 U 44.0	+500 +500
CHI at LAC	08:20 PM	CHI +10.0 U 46.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
10/29/2023	12-14-2	46.43%	-1700	Detail
10/26/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/23/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
10/22/2023	8-12-2	40.91%	-2600	Detail
10/19/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
10/16/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/15/2023	12-11-1	52.08%	-50	Detail
10/12/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/09/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
10/08/2023	10-13-1	43.75%	-2150	Detail
10/05/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
10/02/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
10/01/2023	11-10-1	52.27%	+0	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/29/2023............................11 - 10 - 2..........................52.38%..................................- 0.00
10/26/2023...............................0 - 2..................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/23/2023...............................2 - 0...............................100.00%...................................+ 10.00
10/22/2023...............................6 - 8 - 2..........................42.85%....................................- 14.00
10/19/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%....................................- 0.50
10/16/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/15/2023...............................7 - 9................................43.75%...................................- 14.50
10/12/2023...............................0 - 2.................................00.00%..................................- 11.00
10/09/2023...............................2 - 0 ...............................100.00%.................................+ 10.00
10/08/2023...............................7 - 5................................58.33%...................................+ 7.50
10/05/2023...............................0 - 2................................00.00%...................................- 11.00
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1................................50.00%...................................- 00.50
10/01/2023.............................11 - 10 - 1........................52.27%..................................+ 00.00

TOTALS..................................48 - 52 - 5..........................48.00%....................................- 46.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Interesting college football games for this week:
— TCU @ Texas Tech (-1)
— Miami (-5) @ NC State
— Oregon State (-11) @ Colorado
— UCLA @ Arizona (pick)
— Washington (-4) @ USC
— Kansas State @ Texas (-5)

Quote of the Day
“He’s a really talented guy, but this is his first year. He’s still learning everything: the game, how quick it is, where is (he at) an advantage, where is [he at] a disadvantage. I think he needs to be a little bit fatter, to be honest. But yes, he has a talent that is unique.”
Nikola Jokic, talking about Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren

Monday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?

Sunday’s quiz
Randall Cunningham is the only UNLV football player who has had his number retired by the Rebels.

Saturday’s quiz
Boston Red Sox have won four World Series since 2004, under Terry Francona, John Farrell, Alex Cora.

*********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..​

Eagles 38, Commanders 31
— Washington led 17-10 at halftime.
— Eagles’ last five drives: 22 plays, 155 yards, 4 TD’s.
— Hurts was 29-38/319 passing, with four TD’s.
— Eagles won seven of first eight games (4-2-2 ATS)
— Washington lost five of last six games SU (2-3-1 ATS)
— Commanders scored 31-31 points vs Philly TY, lost both games.
— Washington kicker Slye made a 61-yard FG to end the first half.
— Commanders threw 26-yard TD pass with 1:01 left to push the spread.

Saints 38, Colts 27
— Derek Carr was 19-27/310 passing, with two TD’s.
— New Orleans averaged 11.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Saints are 17-10-2 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Saints are 3-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— New Orleans outgained the Colts, 511-371.
— Saints led 21-20 at halftime.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37-39-38 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.

Jaguars 20, Steelers 10
— Jaguars won/covered their last five games.
— Jacksonville’s first six drives: 3 field goals, 3 turnovers.
— Jaguars converted 6-13 on third down, Pittsburgh 3-12.
— Jacksonville outscored last four opponents 75-19 in first half.
— Steelers’ first four drives: 12 plays, 12 yards, four punts.
— Jaguars outgained Pittsburgh, 377-261
— Six of seven Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17-24 points in wins, 7-6-10 in losses.

Panthers 15, Texans 13
— Piniero kicked a 23-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— Panthers ran ball 24 times for only 44 yards.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Carolina is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— In Young’s six starts, Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Total yardage in game: 229-224, Houston.
— since 2016, Houston is 1-6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Texans scored 37-30-20 points in wins (9-20-19-13 in losses)
— Texans are 1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.

Cowboys 43, Rams 20
— Cowboys led 33-3 with 2:00 left in first half.
— Dallas scored TD on pick-6, got a safety on a blocked punt.
— Prescott was 25-31/304 passing with four TD’s.
— Stafford hurt his right thumb, sat out most of second half.
— Five Dallas wins were by a combined score of 171-50.
— Cowboys won their three home games, 30-10/38-3/43-20.
— Dallas is 13-5 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in last eight post-bye games.

Dolphins 31, Patriots 17
— Patriots lost four of their last five games.
— Patriots were outscored 82-26 in first half of those games.
— Dolphins outgained New England, 390-218.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-31 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Waddle had 121 receiving yards, Hill 112.
— Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in last ten AFC East home games.
— At home, Miami has scored 24 TD’s on 44 drives.
— Dolphins’ six wins are over teams with a combined 10-30 record

Jets 13, Giants 10 OT
— Jets kicked 35-yard FG at gun to force overtime.
— Jets won their last three games (3-0-1 ATS in last four)
— Jets’ only TD drive was one play, 50 yards.
— Jets’ opponents’ team total: under 6-1
— Giants went 3/out on 11 of their 17 drives.
— Taylor/DeVito completed 6-14 passes, for 7 yards. Seven.
— Giants were 2-19 on third down, Jets 2-15.
— Giants lost five of their last six games (2-0-1 ATS last three)

Titans 28, Falcons 23
— Rookie QB Levis was 19-29/238 with 4 TD’s, in his NFL debut.
— Tennessee led 14-3 at halftime.
— Titans won/covered three of their four home games.
— Tennessee won its last eight post-bye games (7-0-1 ATS)
— Falcons in first half: 30 plays, 90 yards, 3 points.
— Falcons in second half: 38 plays, 253 yards, 20 points.
— Backup QB Heinicke was 12-21/175 passing off the bench.
— Atlanta has been outscored 97-49 in first half of games.

Vikings 24, Packers 10
— Minnesota QB Cousins left in 4th quarter with an achilles injury.
— Vikings converted 10-18 on third down, Green Bay 5-14.
— Under is 7-1 in Minnesota games this season.
— Vikings allowed 13-13-17-10 points in wins, 27.3 ppg in losses.
— Green Bay lost last four games, scoring 20-13-17-10 points.
— Last five games, Packers were outscored 73-9 in first half.
— Vikings outgained Green Bay in this game, 346-270.
— Green Bay is 4-7 ATS in last eleven games coming off a loss.

Seahawks 24, Browns 20
— Seattle drove 52 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:38 left.
— Seahawks’ first three drives: 20 plays, 183 yards, 17 points.
— Seahawks’ next seven drives: 30 plays, 117 yards, no points.
— Seattle won five of its last six games (4-1-1 ATS).
— Last 3 weeks, backup QB Walker was 48-97/618, with one TD, 5 INT’s
— Browns’ last three games (2-1) were decided by total of seven points.
— Last three weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 160-150-155 yards.
— Browns are 11-19-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 9
— Denver ends a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
— Denver’s TD drives were short: 39-50-10 yards.
— Broncos ran ball for 153 yards, converted 6-14 on third down.
— Broncos are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home underdog.
— Kansas City turned ball over on three of first six drives.
— In two games vs Denver TY, Chiefs scored one TD on 20 drives.
— KC is 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road favorite (2-2 TY).
— Team total this season: under 6-2

Bengals 31, 49ers 17
— Bengals won four of their last five games (3-1-1 ATS).
— Cincy’s first two drives: 16 plays, 143 yards, 14 points.
— Only eight of Bengals’ 62 plays were on third down.
— 134 rushing yards, 7.6 yards/pass attempt are Bengal season highs.
— 49ers lost last three games, were outgained 1,186-1,000, scoring 17-17-17 points.
— SF scored 30+ points in all five of its wins.
— In this game, 49ers lost despite averaging 10.5 yards/pass attempt.
— 49ers turned ball over on three of their last four drives.

Ravens 31, Cardinals 24
— Last five games, Ravens outscored opponents 91-16 in first half.
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore is 3-9 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite (0-2 TY)
— Edwards carried ball 19 times for 80 yards, with three TD’s.
— Arizona is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS last five games, losing by 19-14-17-10-7 points.
— Cardinals scored 17 points in last 6:32 for the backdoor cover.
— Last six games, Arizona gave up 27.7 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 18 of last 21 games SU (8-10 ATS in last 18).

Chargers 30, Bears 13
— Chargers’ first five drives: 46 plays, 294 yards, 27 points.
— Herbert was 31-40/298 passing, with three TD’s.
— under Staley, Bolts are 8-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chargers have 7 takeaways (+4) in wins, three (minus-1) in losses.
— Bears’ first three drives: 14 plays, 67 yards, no points.
— Chicago ran ball 25 times for only 73 yards.
— Chicago is 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 games as road underdogs.
— Last 2+ years, Bears are 11-31 SU/15-25-2 ATS.