NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !
- Thread starter Cnotes53
- Start date
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/28/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 09/25/2023 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 09/24/2023 | 14-12-0 | 53.85% | +400 | Detail |
| 09/21/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 09/18/2023 | 0-3-1 | 12.50% | -1650 | Detail |
| 09/17/2023 | 9-17-0 | 34.62% | -4850 | Detail |
| 09/14/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 09/11/2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 09/10/2023 | 14-14-0 | 50.00% | -700 | Detail |
| 09/07/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS!
09/28/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%...........................- 0.50
09/25/2023..............................1 - 2 - 1........................37.50%...........................- 6.00
09/24/2023.............................9 - 8 ..............................52.94%..........................- 4.50
09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
TOTALS................................35 - 39 - 2...........................47.29%...........................- 40.50
09/28/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%...........................- 0.50
09/25/2023..............................1 - 2 - 1........................37.50%...........................- 6.00
09/24/2023.............................9 - 8 ..............................52.94%..........................- 4.50
09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
TOTALS................................35 - 39 - 2...........................47.29%...........................- 40.50
Friday’s 6-pack:
Thru three weeks, NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,075— Kirk Cousins, Minn
1,024— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
939— Justin Herbert, LAC
910— Matthew Stafford, Rams
906— CJ Stroud, Hst
819— Jared Goff, Det
Quote of the Day
“I love mankind…….Its people I can’t stand.”
Linus, from the Peanuts comic strip
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs, who was their manager?
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.
Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.
*********************************************
Marlins lead the Cubs by half a game for last Wild Card slot; if Thursday’s game needs to be finished to impact the playoff race, Marlins will return to New York to finish the game Monday.
If the game doesn’t impact the playoff race, the score reverts back to the 8th inning, the game won’t be completed, and the Mets will win the game, 1-0.
— Lions 34, Packers 20
Detroit in first half: 42 plays, 259 yards, 27 points.
Green Bay in first half: 23 plays, 54 yards, 3 points.
Detroit is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under Campbell, Lions are 26-11-1 ATS.
Last two games, Green Bay was outscored 44-3 in first half.
Total yardage: Detroit 401, Green Bay 230
Lions are 11-2 ATS in last 13 games vs Green Bay.
Detroit has beaten the Packers four times in row for first time since 1983.
— In their first three games, Cleveland Browns have allowed only one TD on 33 drives, and that TD was a 71-yard TD pass by Pittsburgh.
— Jacksonville State 35, Sam Houston State 28 OT
Jax State tied game on a 28-yard TD pass/2-point conversion with 0:13 left.
Sam Houston led game 21-7 at halftime.
JSU RB Jackson carried ball 13 times for 129 yards and a TD.
— Tulsa 48, Temple 26
Tulsa ran for 289 yards, converted 9-15 on third down.
Temple QB EJ Warner was 27-49/269, with two TD passes.
— Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 10
Hilltoppers led 23-3 at halftime.
WKU converted 10-19 third down plays.
— Only two baseball players EVER have hit:
.300+ career batting average
500+ home runs
3,167+ hits
1,800+ RBI
600+ doubles
Henry Aaron and……..Miguel Cabrera
— Word of the Day: Serendipity— A chain of events that occurs in a favorable way.
— Ronald Acuna stole his 70th base Wednesday, making him the first player ever with 40+ home runs, 70+ stolen bases in the same season.
— Happened to be watching the Pirates-Phillies game last night when Angel Hernandez called Bryce Harper out on a check swing, a truly horrible call— it wasn’t close, and I didn’t care who won the game, it was just an awful call.
Harper went on tilt, walked down to 3B while he yelled at Hernandez. At first I thought he was getting tossed on purpose, since the Phillies are already in the playoffs, but you could tell he was genuinely ticked off. Replays showed what a bad call it was.
— Baltimore 2, Boston 0— Orioles win their 100th game, clinch the AL East title.
Orioles signed a new 30-year lease at Camden Yards, good for the fans in Baltimore.
— Braves 5, Cubs 3
Atlanta clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cubs fell a half-game behind Marlins in the Wild Card race.
— Mariners 3, Rangers 2— JP Crawford’s 2-run double in bottom of the ninth moved Seattle within a game of the Astros for the last playoff spot in the AL.
— USFL/XFL are going to merge, a smart move that will make spring football prominent for years to come. Details haven’t been announced yet, but this is a good move.
— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Thru three weeks, NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,075— Kirk Cousins, Minn
1,024— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
939— Justin Herbert, LAC
910— Matthew Stafford, Rams
906— CJ Stroud, Hst
819— Jared Goff, Det
Quote of the Day
“I love mankind…….Its people I can’t stand.”
Linus, from the Peanuts comic strip
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs, who was their manager?
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.
Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.
*********************************************
Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday
— Miami Marlins scored two runs in top of ninth Thursday, led Mets 2-1 when rain delayed the game; after a delay of 3:17, they suspended the game around 1:00 am, which complicates things.Marlins lead the Cubs by half a game for last Wild Card slot; if Thursday’s game needs to be finished to impact the playoff race, Marlins will return to New York to finish the game Monday.
If the game doesn’t impact the playoff race, the score reverts back to the 8th inning, the game won’t be completed, and the Mets will win the game, 1-0.
— Lions 34, Packers 20
Detroit in first half: 42 plays, 259 yards, 27 points.
Green Bay in first half: 23 plays, 54 yards, 3 points.
Detroit is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under Campbell, Lions are 26-11-1 ATS.
Last two games, Green Bay was outscored 44-3 in first half.
Total yardage: Detroit 401, Green Bay 230
Lions are 11-2 ATS in last 13 games vs Green Bay.
Detroit has beaten the Packers four times in row for first time since 1983.
— In their first three games, Cleveland Browns have allowed only one TD on 33 drives, and that TD was a 71-yard TD pass by Pittsburgh.
— Jacksonville State 35, Sam Houston State 28 OT
Jax State tied game on a 28-yard TD pass/2-point conversion with 0:13 left.
Sam Houston led game 21-7 at halftime.
JSU RB Jackson carried ball 13 times for 129 yards and a TD.
— Tulsa 48, Temple 26
Tulsa ran for 289 yards, converted 9-15 on third down.
Temple QB EJ Warner was 27-49/269, with two TD passes.
— Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 10
Hilltoppers led 23-3 at halftime.
WKU converted 10-19 third down plays.
— Only two baseball players EVER have hit:
.300+ career batting average
500+ home runs
3,167+ hits
1,800+ RBI
600+ doubles
Henry Aaron and……..Miguel Cabrera
— Word of the Day: Serendipity— A chain of events that occurs in a favorable way.
— Ronald Acuna stole his 70th base Wednesday, making him the first player ever with 40+ home runs, 70+ stolen bases in the same season.
— Happened to be watching the Pirates-Phillies game last night when Angel Hernandez called Bryce Harper out on a check swing, a truly horrible call— it wasn’t close, and I didn’t care who won the game, it was just an awful call.
Harper went on tilt, walked down to 3B while he yelled at Hernandez. At first I thought he was getting tossed on purpose, since the Phillies are already in the playoffs, but you could tell he was genuinely ticked off. Replays showed what a bad call it was.
— Baltimore 2, Boston 0— Orioles win their 100th game, clinch the AL East title.
Orioles signed a new 30-year lease at Camden Yards, good for the fans in Baltimore.
— Braves 5, Cubs 3
Atlanta clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cubs fell a half-game behind Marlins in the Wild Card race.
— Mariners 3, Rangers 2— JP Crawford’s 2-run double in bottom of the ninth moved Seattle within a game of the Astros for the last playoff spot in the AL.
— USFL/XFL are going to merge, a smart move that will make spring football prominent for years to come. Details haven’t been announced yet, but this is a good move.
— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
- Sep 10, 2018
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 4
Sunday’s games
Falcons (2-1) vs Jaguars (1-2) (@ London)
— Falcons ran for 130-211 yards in their wins, 44 in their loss LW.
— Falcons are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 games away from home.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-9-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Atlanta has been outscored 30-19 in first half of games.
— Ridder is 4-3 as an NFL starting QB.
— Atlanta is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Falcons are 7-5-3 ATS in last 15 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Atlanta has converted only 12 of 39 third down plays.
— Under is 9-2 in their last eleven games overall.
— Jaguars lost their last two games, outscored 54-26.
— Last two games, Jaguars didn’t score a TD in the first half.
— Jacksonville is only 11-37 on third down in three games.
— Jaguars are 12-24-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a loss.
— Last 10 years, Jacksonville is 7-31 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +7 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 57-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 13-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Falcons won last four series games, giving up 14.3 ppg.
— Last time Jaguars beat Atlanta was in 2007.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Dolphins (3-0) @ Bills (2-1)
— Miami won its first three games, scoring 36-24-70 points.
— Dolphins have scored 17 TD’s on 33 drives.
— Last week, Miami had five TD plays of 20+ yards.
— In three games, opponents are 19-42 on third down.
— since 2019, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami is 22-11 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
— Miami is 5-4-1 ATS in last ten AFC East road games.
— Tagovailoa is 24-13 as an NFL starter.
— Bills won last two games, outscoring foes 75-13.
— Bills converted 21-41 third down plays in three games.
— Bills are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Buffalo led first three games by 10-11-16 points at halftime.
— Under is 18-14 in Buffalo’s last 32 home games.
— Josh Allen is 58-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine AFC East home games.
— Bills are 20-13-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
— Buffalo won eight of last nine series games.
— Dolphins are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Vikings (0-3) @ Panthers (0-3)
— Vikings lost their first three games, by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has turned ball over nine times already (minus-7).
— Vikings are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games on natural grass.
— Since 2013, Vikings are 42-24-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Minnesota has given up eight TD’s on opponents’ last 22 drives.
— Cousins is 73-69-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Unclear which QB will start; check status (Dalton threw for 334 yards LW).
— Carolina lost first three games, scoring 10-17-27 points.
— First three games. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/5.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers were 10-19 on third down LW (9-28 in first two games).
— Opponents are 12-37 on third down this year.
— Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Panthers have been outscored 56-31 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 17-24-2 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
— Minnesota won four of last five series games.
— Vikings are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Broncos (0-3) @ Bears (0-3)
— Broncos lost 70-20 LW, giving up 10 TD’s on 13 drives.
— Broncos gave up 105 points in their last two games.
— Denver lost its first two games by a combined three points.
— since 2019, Broncos are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Denver lost 14 of its last 17 games SU.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Broncos’ last 17 road games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-74-1 as an NFL starter, 4-14 with Denver.
— AFC West teams are 3-6 ATS outside the division.
— Not sure how anyone could lay 3.5 points with Denver right now.
— Chicago lost its first three games, giving up 35.3 ppg.
— Opponents have scored 11 TDs on 31 drives.
— Bears are 9-28 SU/12-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 13-38 on 3rd down, averaged 4.6/4.8/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Chicago is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Fields is 5-23 SU as an NFL starter.
— Bears are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
— Bears are 13-24-3 ATS in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— NFC North teams are 2-6 ATS outside the division.
— Denver is 3-2 SU in last five series games.
— Last four meetings were all decided by 3 or less points.
— Teams split last two games played in Chicago.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Ravens (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)
— Ravens went 3/out on 7 of 14 drives LW in upset loss to Indy.
— Ravens are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Baltimore converted 23 of their first 45 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 34 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 48-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 14-10 in their last 24 road games.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26 in their loss.
— Cleveland’s offense gave up two defensive TD’s in 26-22 loss to Steelers.
— First three games, Cleveland outgained opponents 1,099-501.
— Browns have 64 first downs, their opponents only 21.
— Last 3+ years, Cleveland is 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Stefanski, Cleveland is 9-16 ATS coming off a win.
— Opponents have converted only 8-41 third down plays.
— Watson is 34-31 as an NFL starter, 5-4 for Cleveland.
— Home team won last five series games.
— Ravens lost 13-3/24-22 in last two visits to Lake Erie.
— Four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
— Ravens were the Cleveland Browns until 1996.
Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)
— Steelers won last two games, scoring 26-23 points.
— Steelers have seven takeaways in last two games (+4)
— Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— This is first time since 2020 that the Steelers are road favorite.
— Steelers have been outgained 1,161-827 this season.
— Pitt is 27-14-1 ATS in last 42 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 9-6 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Texans averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-17 upset win.
— Texans are 8-11-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— First three weeks, Houston ran ball for only 70 yards/game.
— Opponents have converted 21-43 third down plays.
— since 2013, Houston is 13-17-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Stroud is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— Houston is 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Pittsburgh won five of last six meetings.
— Steelers covered two of last three visits to Houston.
Rams (1-2) @ Colts (2-1)
— Rams led or were tied in second half of all three games.
— Rams were outscored 26-16 in 2nd half the last two weeks.
— Rams were 1-11 on 3rd down LW, were 18-32 in first two games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 94-106-1 as an NFL starter, 20-13 with the Rams.
— Rams are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, Rams are 20-13-2 ATS in games coming of a loss.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 16-17-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Colts won road games last two weeks, scoring 31-22 points.
— Both Colt games this season went over the total.
— Road team won all three Colts’ games TY.
— Colts are 7-11 ATS in last 18 home games.
— Last 3+ years, Indy is 13-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Colts are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Minshew is 9-16 as an NFL starter,.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Rams won last three series games by average score of 37-14.
— Favorites covered four of last six series games.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Buccaneers (2-1) @ Saints (2-1)
— Short week for Tampa Bay after Monday night loss to Eagles.
— Bucs converted 19 of first 42 third down plays.
— Bucs are 7-13-4 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Buccaneers were 0-8-1 ATS LY in games coming off a loss.
— Bucs have 7 takeaways in three games (+5 turnovers)
— Under is 12-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 17 road games.
— Mayfield is 34-40 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Opponents’ team total is 2-0-1 under this year.
— QB Carr hurt his shoulder LW (check status): Winston is backup.
— Saints’ first three games were decided by total of five points.
— In three games, Saints’ defense allowed three TD’s on 31 drives.
— Opponents have converted only 6-26 on third down.
— Saints scored 4 TD’s, tried 7 FG’s on their 30 drives.
— Last 2+ years, Saints are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, NO is 5-9-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Under is 11-7 in Saints’ last 18 home games.
— Saints have outscored opponents 29-9 in first half.
— Saints won eight of last 12 series games (0-2 last year).
— Buccaneers are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to New Orleans.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Commanders (2-1) @ Eagles (3-0)
— Washington gave up 33-37 points the last two weeks.
— Commanders have converted only 8-31 third down plays.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 5-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Washington has 6 TD drives; only one was 60+ yards long.
— Last six years, Commanders are 7-11 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Under is 12-4 in Washington’s last 16 games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-1 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
— Short week for Eagles after their win in Tampa Monday.
— Eagles won first three games (2-0-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25 points.
— Philly has 8 takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers)
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 28-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles ran ball for 259-201 yards the last two weeks.
— Hurts is 28-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 13-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Eagles are 9-3 in last 12 series games (3-3 in last six)
— Philly is 4-2 ATS in last six visits here.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
— NFL-wide, home teams are 5-10 ATS in divisional games.
Bengals (1-2) @ Titans (1-2)
— Short week for Cincinnati after Monday night’s win.
— QB Burrow (calf) is hampered by calf injury; lot fewer long passes.
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-3.
— Bengals have only three TD’s on 32 drives this season.
— Bengals gave up 384 rushing yards in first games, only 71 Monday.
— Cincinnati is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games on natural grass.
— Bengals are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Cincinnati was 9-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Bengals are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 11-5-1 in their last seventeen road games.
— Titans scored 27 points in its win; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
— Tennessee lost nine of its last ten games SU.
— Titans are 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
— Titans are minus-2 in turnovers (2-4) so far this season.
— First drive of their games, Titans ran 16 plays for only 22 yards.
— Titans are 28-18-2 ATS in last 48 games coming off a loss.
— Tannehill is 81-70 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Titans are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Cincinnati won seven of last nine series games.
— Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in last five visits to Nashville.
Raiders (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)
— Garoppolo is in concussion protocol (check status)
— Brian Hoyer is backup QB- 16-24 as starter, but last win was in 2016.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18 points in first three games.
— Las Vegas has scored only 34 points on eight red zone drives.
— Raiders are 15-9 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Garoppolo is 41-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Opponents have converted 18 of 39 third down plays.
— Chargers scored 34-24-28 points in first three games, all close games.
— Last two games, Chargers converted only 7-25 third down plays.
— Chargers are 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bolts were 4-2 ATS in AFC West home games.
— since 2013, Chargers are 31-37-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Herbert is 26-27 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 10 TD’s on 31 drives, allowed 10 TD’s on 31 drives.
— Over is 11-7-1 in their last 19 home games.
— Chargers won last week, despite losing field position by 16 yards.
— Raiders are 5-3 SU in last eight series games.
— Chargers lost 27-20/35-32 in last two visits to Las Vegas.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Patriots (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)
— Patriots are off to 1-2 start, scoring 20-17-15 points.
— In last week’s 15-10 win, Patriots never got in Jets’ red zone.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-27 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last two years, Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Mac Jones is 17-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 7-5-3 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Patriots are 9-7 ATS in games coming off a win.
— AFC East teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 2-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Dallas only scored 13 points in 5 trips to red zone in LW’s 28-16 loss.
— Cowboys won first two games by combined 70-10.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 19-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 28-46 on third down, opponents are 11-36.
— Last two years, Dallas was 8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Cowboys outgained first three opponents, 1,063-786.
— QB Prescott is 65-41 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have six takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers).
— NFC East teams are 4-5 ATS outside the division.
— New England won five of last six series games.
— Patriots won/covered their last two visits to Dallas.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Cardinals (1-2) @ 49ers (3-0)
— Arizona is 1-2, but they led all three games at halftime.
— Cardinals are 3-0 ATS, outscoring foes 54-20 in first half.
— Arizona has been outscored 47-18 in 2nd half.
— Cardinals have lost 13 of last 16 games SU (7-6 ATS in last 13).
— Cardinals are 17-6-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— QB Dobbs is 1-4 as an NFL starter; he is 59-82/549 passing, with no INTs.
— Arizona is 14-13 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, Cardinals scored six TD’s, tried five FG’s on 18 drives.
— Since 2013, Arizona is 20-9-1 ATS in NFC West road games.
— San Francisco scored 30-30-30 points in winning first three games (2-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 36-12 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 188-159-141 yards.
— First three games, 49ers won field position by 10-8-4 yards.
— 49ers have scored 67 points in 13 trips to red zone.
— SF is 8-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +20 in turnovers (+6 in three games TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 10-1 as NFL starter.
— 49ers are 5-3 in last eight meetings.
— Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven visits here.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Chiefs (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)
— Last two games, Chiefs allowed one TD on 21 drives.
— KC is 10-13-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have scored 69 points in 11 red zone drives.
— KC had 12 penalties for 94 yards in Week 2, only 3-15 last week.
— Chiefs have outscored opponents 55-13 in first half.
— Chiefs are 15-23-1 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 77-20 as an NFL starter- he’s never played in this stadium.
— Opponents have converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 2-7 ATS outside the division.
— Jets lost 30-10/15-10 last two weeks, with #2 QB Wilson playing.
— Wilson is 8-16 as an NFL starter.
— First three games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, Jets ran ball 38 times for 102 yards.
— Jets were outgained 740-386 in last two games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 6-10 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 10-12 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
— AFC East teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Home team won last eight series games.
— Chiefs lost last four road series games; their last win here was in 2002.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Monday’s game
Seahawks (2-1) @ Giants (1-2)
— Seahawks won their last two games, scoring 37-37 points.
— Seattle have converted only 10-31 third down plays.
— Seahawks gave up 984 PY in first three games.
— Seahawks are 17-12-3 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— First three games, Seattle was outgained 1,222-998.
— Geno Smith is 24-30 as an NFL starter, 12-12 with Seattle.
— Smith played in this stadium for five years, starting 31 games.
— Last 3+ years, Seattle is 9-15 ATS coming off a win.
— Seattle is 18-20 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Giants have been outscored 63-6 in first half of their three games.
— Giants were held under 180 total yards in two of three games.
— Big Blue has only one takeaway in three games (minus-3 turnovers)
— Giants are 11-8 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Giants have been shut out in three of their six halves this season.
— Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.
— Daniel Jones is 23-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 3-5 ATS outside the division.
— Seattle won five of last six series games.
— Seahawks won/covered last three visits here.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 4
Sunday’s games
Falcons (2-1) vs Jaguars (1-2) (@ London)
— Falcons ran for 130-211 yards in their wins, 44 in their loss LW.
— Falcons are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 games away from home.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-9-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Atlanta has been outscored 30-19 in first half of games.
— Ridder is 4-3 as an NFL starting QB.
— Atlanta is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Falcons are 7-5-3 ATS in last 15 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Atlanta has converted only 12 of 39 third down plays.
— Under is 9-2 in their last eleven games overall.
— Jaguars lost their last two games, outscored 54-26.
— Last two games, Jaguars didn’t score a TD in the first half.
— Jacksonville is only 11-37 on third down in three games.
— Jaguars are 12-24-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a loss.
— Last 10 years, Jacksonville is 7-31 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +7 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 57-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 13-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Falcons won last four series games, giving up 14.3 ppg.
— Last time Jaguars beat Atlanta was in 2007.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Dolphins (3-0) @ Bills (2-1)
— Miami won its first three games, scoring 36-24-70 points.
— Dolphins have scored 17 TD’s on 33 drives.
— Last week, Miami had five TD plays of 20+ yards.
— In three games, opponents are 19-42 on third down.
— since 2019, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami is 22-11 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
— Miami is 5-4-1 ATS in last ten AFC East road games.
— Tagovailoa is 24-13 as an NFL starter.
— Bills won last two games, outscoring foes 75-13.
— Bills converted 21-41 third down plays in three games.
— Bills are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Buffalo led first three games by 10-11-16 points at halftime.
— Under is 18-14 in Buffalo’s last 32 home games.
— Josh Allen is 58-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine AFC East home games.
— Bills are 20-13-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
— Buffalo won eight of last nine series games.
— Dolphins are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Vikings (0-3) @ Panthers (0-3)
— Vikings lost their first three games, by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has turned ball over nine times already (minus-7).
— Vikings are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games on natural grass.
— Since 2013, Vikings are 42-24-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Minnesota has given up eight TD’s on opponents’ last 22 drives.
— Cousins is 73-69-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Unclear which QB will start; check status (Dalton threw for 334 yards LW).
— Carolina lost first three games, scoring 10-17-27 points.
— First three games. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/5.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers were 10-19 on third down LW (9-28 in first two games).
— Opponents are 12-37 on third down this year.
— Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Panthers have been outscored 56-31 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 17-24-2 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
— Minnesota won four of last five series games.
— Vikings are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Broncos (0-3) @ Bears (0-3)
— Broncos lost 70-20 LW, giving up 10 TD’s on 13 drives.
— Broncos gave up 105 points in their last two games.
— Denver lost its first two games by a combined three points.
— since 2019, Broncos are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Denver lost 14 of its last 17 games SU.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Broncos’ last 17 road games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-74-1 as an NFL starter, 4-14 with Denver.
— AFC West teams are 3-6 ATS outside the division.
— Not sure how anyone could lay 3.5 points with Denver right now.
— Chicago lost its first three games, giving up 35.3 ppg.
— Opponents have scored 11 TDs on 31 drives.
— Bears are 9-28 SU/12-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 13-38 on 3rd down, averaged 4.6/4.8/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Chicago is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Fields is 5-23 SU as an NFL starter.
— Bears are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
— Bears are 13-24-3 ATS in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— NFC North teams are 2-6 ATS outside the division.
— Denver is 3-2 SU in last five series games.
— Last four meetings were all decided by 3 or less points.
— Teams split last two games played in Chicago.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Ravens (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)
— Ravens went 3/out on 7 of 14 drives LW in upset loss to Indy.
— Ravens are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Baltimore converted 23 of their first 45 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 34 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 48-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 14-10 in their last 24 road games.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26 in their loss.
— Cleveland’s offense gave up two defensive TD’s in 26-22 loss to Steelers.
— First three games, Cleveland outgained opponents 1,099-501.
— Browns have 64 first downs, their opponents only 21.
— Last 3+ years, Cleveland is 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Stefanski, Cleveland is 9-16 ATS coming off a win.
— Opponents have converted only 8-41 third down plays.
— Watson is 34-31 as an NFL starter, 5-4 for Cleveland.
— Home team won last five series games.
— Ravens lost 13-3/24-22 in last two visits to Lake Erie.
— Four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
— Ravens were the Cleveland Browns until 1996.
Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)
— Steelers won last two games, scoring 26-23 points.
— Steelers have seven takeaways in last two games (+4)
— Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— This is first time since 2020 that the Steelers are road favorite.
— Steelers have been outgained 1,161-827 this season.
— Pitt is 27-14-1 ATS in last 42 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 9-6 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Texans averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-17 upset win.
— Texans are 8-11-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— First three weeks, Houston ran ball for only 70 yards/game.
— Opponents have converted 21-43 third down plays.
— since 2013, Houston is 13-17-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Stroud is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— Houston is 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Pittsburgh won five of last six meetings.
— Steelers covered two of last three visits to Houston.
Rams (1-2) @ Colts (2-1)
— Rams led or were tied in second half of all three games.
— Rams were outscored 26-16 in 2nd half the last two weeks.
— Rams were 1-11 on 3rd down LW, were 18-32 in first two games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 94-106-1 as an NFL starter, 20-13 with the Rams.
— Rams are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, Rams are 20-13-2 ATS in games coming of a loss.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 16-17-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Colts won road games last two weeks, scoring 31-22 points.
— Both Colt games this season went over the total.
— Road team won all three Colts’ games TY.
— Colts are 7-11 ATS in last 18 home games.
— Last 3+ years, Indy is 13-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Colts are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Minshew is 9-16 as an NFL starter,.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Rams won last three series games by average score of 37-14.
— Favorites covered four of last six series games.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Buccaneers (2-1) @ Saints (2-1)
— Short week for Tampa Bay after Monday night loss to Eagles.
— Bucs converted 19 of first 42 third down plays.
— Bucs are 7-13-4 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Buccaneers were 0-8-1 ATS LY in games coming off a loss.
— Bucs have 7 takeaways in three games (+5 turnovers)
— Under is 12-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 17 road games.
— Mayfield is 34-40 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Opponents’ team total is 2-0-1 under this year.
— QB Carr hurt his shoulder LW (check status): Winston is backup.
— Saints’ first three games were decided by total of five points.
— In three games, Saints’ defense allowed three TD’s on 31 drives.
— Opponents have converted only 6-26 on third down.
— Saints scored 4 TD’s, tried 7 FG’s on their 30 drives.
— Last 2+ years, Saints are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, NO is 5-9-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Under is 11-7 in Saints’ last 18 home games.
— Saints have outscored opponents 29-9 in first half.
— Saints won eight of last 12 series games (0-2 last year).
— Buccaneers are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to New Orleans.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Commanders (2-1) @ Eagles (3-0)
— Washington gave up 33-37 points the last two weeks.
— Commanders have converted only 8-31 third down plays.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 5-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Washington has 6 TD drives; only one was 60+ yards long.
— Last six years, Commanders are 7-11 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Under is 12-4 in Washington’s last 16 games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-1 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
— Short week for Eagles after their win in Tampa Monday.
— Eagles won first three games (2-0-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25 points.
— Philly has 8 takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers)
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 28-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles ran ball for 259-201 yards the last two weeks.
— Hurts is 28-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 13-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Eagles are 9-3 in last 12 series games (3-3 in last six)
— Philly is 4-2 ATS in last six visits here.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
— NFL-wide, home teams are 5-10 ATS in divisional games.
Bengals (1-2) @ Titans (1-2)
— Short week for Cincinnati after Monday night’s win.
— QB Burrow (calf) is hampered by calf injury; lot fewer long passes.
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-3.
— Bengals have only three TD’s on 32 drives this season.
— Bengals gave up 384 rushing yards in first games, only 71 Monday.
— Cincinnati is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games on natural grass.
— Bengals are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Cincinnati was 9-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Bengals are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 11-5-1 in their last seventeen road games.
— Titans scored 27 points in its win; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
— Tennessee lost nine of its last ten games SU.
— Titans are 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
— Titans are minus-2 in turnovers (2-4) so far this season.
— First drive of their games, Titans ran 16 plays for only 22 yards.
— Titans are 28-18-2 ATS in last 48 games coming off a loss.
— Tannehill is 81-70 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Titans are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Cincinnati won seven of last nine series games.
— Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in last five visits to Nashville.
Raiders (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)
— Garoppolo is in concussion protocol (check status)
— Brian Hoyer is backup QB- 16-24 as starter, but last win was in 2016.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18 points in first three games.
— Las Vegas has scored only 34 points on eight red zone drives.
— Raiders are 15-9 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Garoppolo is 41-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Opponents have converted 18 of 39 third down plays.
— Chargers scored 34-24-28 points in first three games, all close games.
— Last two games, Chargers converted only 7-25 third down plays.
— Chargers are 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bolts were 4-2 ATS in AFC West home games.
— since 2013, Chargers are 31-37-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Herbert is 26-27 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 10 TD’s on 31 drives, allowed 10 TD’s on 31 drives.
— Over is 11-7-1 in their last 19 home games.
— Chargers won last week, despite losing field position by 16 yards.
— Raiders are 5-3 SU in last eight series games.
— Chargers lost 27-20/35-32 in last two visits to Las Vegas.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Patriots (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)
— Patriots are off to 1-2 start, scoring 20-17-15 points.
— In last week’s 15-10 win, Patriots never got in Jets’ red zone.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-27 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last two years, Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Mac Jones is 17-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 7-5-3 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Patriots are 9-7 ATS in games coming off a win.
— AFC East teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 2-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Dallas only scored 13 points in 5 trips to red zone in LW’s 28-16 loss.
— Cowboys won first two games by combined 70-10.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 19-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 28-46 on third down, opponents are 11-36.
— Last two years, Dallas was 8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Cowboys outgained first three opponents, 1,063-786.
— QB Prescott is 65-41 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have six takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers).
— NFC East teams are 4-5 ATS outside the division.
— New England won five of last six series games.
— Patriots won/covered their last two visits to Dallas.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Cardinals (1-2) @ 49ers (3-0)
— Arizona is 1-2, but they led all three games at halftime.
— Cardinals are 3-0 ATS, outscoring foes 54-20 in first half.
— Arizona has been outscored 47-18 in 2nd half.
— Cardinals have lost 13 of last 16 games SU (7-6 ATS in last 13).
— Cardinals are 17-6-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— QB Dobbs is 1-4 as an NFL starter; he is 59-82/549 passing, with no INTs.
— Arizona is 14-13 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, Cardinals scored six TD’s, tried five FG’s on 18 drives.
— Since 2013, Arizona is 20-9-1 ATS in NFC West road games.
— San Francisco scored 30-30-30 points in winning first three games (2-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 36-12 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 188-159-141 yards.
— First three games, 49ers won field position by 10-8-4 yards.
— 49ers have scored 67 points in 13 trips to red zone.
— SF is 8-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +20 in turnovers (+6 in three games TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 10-1 as NFL starter.
— 49ers are 5-3 in last eight meetings.
— Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven visits here.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Chiefs (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)
— Last two games, Chiefs allowed one TD on 21 drives.
— KC is 10-13-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have scored 69 points in 11 red zone drives.
— KC had 12 penalties for 94 yards in Week 2, only 3-15 last week.
— Chiefs have outscored opponents 55-13 in first half.
— Chiefs are 15-23-1 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 77-20 as an NFL starter- he’s never played in this stadium.
— Opponents have converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 2-7 ATS outside the division.
— Jets lost 30-10/15-10 last two weeks, with #2 QB Wilson playing.
— Wilson is 8-16 as an NFL starter.
— First three games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, Jets ran ball 38 times for 102 yards.
— Jets were outgained 740-386 in last two games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 6-10 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 10-12 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
— AFC East teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Home team won last eight series games.
— Chiefs lost last four road series games; their last win here was in 2002.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Monday’s game
Seahawks (2-1) @ Giants (1-2)
— Seahawks won their last two games, scoring 37-37 points.
— Seattle have converted only 10-31 third down plays.
— Seahawks gave up 984 PY in first three games.
— Seahawks are 17-12-3 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— First three games, Seattle was outgained 1,222-998.
— Geno Smith is 24-30 as an NFL starter, 12-12 with Seattle.
— Smith played in this stadium for five years, starting 31 games.
— Last 3+ years, Seattle is 9-15 ATS coming off a win.
— Seattle is 18-20 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Giants have been outscored 63-6 in first half of their three games.
— Giants were held under 180 total yards in two of three games.
— Big Blue has only one takeaway in three games (minus-3 turnovers)
— Giants are 11-8 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Giants have been shut out in three of their six halves this season.
— Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.
— Daniel Jones is 23-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 3-5 ATS outside the division.
— Seattle won five of last six series games.
— Seahawks won/covered last three visits here.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Saturday’s 6-pack:
Best NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
6.20— Ravens (62 points/10 drives)
6.00— Chiefs
5.93— Dolphins
5.89— Packers
5.75— Chargers
5.60— Bears (only five drives)
Quote of the Day
“Hope it’s up to your standards. I didn’t know I was a poor man’s anything.”
Jared Goff Thursday night, after Ryan Fitzpatrick called him “…..a poor man’s Matt Ryan”
Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.
***********************************************
Miami trailed 3-0 in 8th inning, scored four runs in top of the 8th.
— Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (10)
Cubs tied game after trailing 3-0 in 8th inning.
Carlos Santana got the game-winning hit.
Cubs/Reds are tied, 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the last playoff spot.
— Astros 2, Arizona 1
Jose Urquidy got a spot start, threw six scoreless IP.
Jose Abreu’s two-run double was the game-winning hit.
— Mariners 8, Rangers 0— Seattle stays within a game of Houston in the Wild Card race; Texas leads the Astros by a game in AL West.
— Royals 12, New York 5— Carlos Rodon faced eight batters, threw 35 pitches, gave up six hits, walked two guys— all eight hitters scored. It was the worst start by any MLB pitcher since 2019, when Stephen Matz faced eight guys, and they all got on base.
Rodon is in the first year of a six-year, $162M contract. Yikes.
— San Francisco Giants fired manager Gabe Kapler Friday, two years after his Giants went 107-55; the other three years he managed the Giants:
2020— 29-31
2021— 107-55
2022— 81-81
2023— 78-81
— Texas Rangers have 30 saves this year; they’ve blown 33 saves. No bueno.
— Louisville 13, NC State 10
Wolfpack led 10-0 at halftime.
Cardinals outgained NC State 306-201; Wolfpack had only 9 first downs.
Louisville kicked a 53-yard FG with 5:32 left for the winning score.
— Oregon State 21, Utah 7
Beavers outgained Utah, 358-198
Utah’s starting QB still hasn’t played this season.
Both teams are 4-1 now.
— Louisiana Tech 24, UTEP 10
Tech led 17-7 at halftime.
Neither team completed half their passes
Tech was 3-11 on third down, UTEP 3-18.
— BYU 35, Cincinnati 27
First score of game was a pick-6 for BYU.
BYU QB Slovis threw TD passes of 22-59 yards.
Bearcats outgained BYU, 498-295
— Word of the Day: Quagmire- an awkward, complex, or hazardous situation.
— Los Angeles Chargers have their bye next week, in Week 5; the last nine years, Chargers are 1-8 ATS in the game before their bye.
— Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is 5-23 SU/9-18-1 ATS as an NFL quarterback; Bears host Denver this week, a team that lost 70-20 last week, but Denver is favored by 3.5 points.
— Green Bay’s Jordan Love is 2-3 in his first five NFL starts.
Aaron Rodgers was 2-3 in his first five NFL starts; so was Brett Favre.
— 21 of the 32 head coaches in the NFL are in their first NFL head coaching job; guys who get fired in the NFL are more likely to go off to college jobs (Matt Rhule, Jim Mora Jr, Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban come to mind).
How come no one has given Dan Quinn another shot at being a head coach? Few years ago, the guy was winning a Super Bowl 28-3. You’d think he would get hired by someone.
— Only one 0-4 NFL team made the playoffs that year: the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
— Thru Thursday’s games, 1,137 baseball games went over the total this season, 1,136 games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota Twins have struck out 1,629 times this season, the most by any team, ever.
— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.
— Best college football teams against the spread:
4-0 ATS: Liberty, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, UNLV
3-0-1 ATS: Rutgers, Syracuse
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Best NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
6.20— Ravens (62 points/10 drives)
6.00— Chiefs
5.93— Dolphins
5.89— Packers
5.75— Chargers
5.60— Bears (only five drives)
Quote of the Day
“Hope it’s up to your standards. I didn’t know I was a poor man’s anything.”
Jared Goff Thursday night, after Ryan Fitzpatrick called him “…..a poor man’s Matt Ryan”
Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.
***********************************************
Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……
— Marlins 4, Pirates 3Miami trailed 3-0 in 8th inning, scored four runs in top of the 8th.
— Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (10)
Cubs tied game after trailing 3-0 in 8th inning.
Carlos Santana got the game-winning hit.
Cubs/Reds are tied, 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the last playoff spot.
— Astros 2, Arizona 1
Jose Urquidy got a spot start, threw six scoreless IP.
Jose Abreu’s two-run double was the game-winning hit.
— Mariners 8, Rangers 0— Seattle stays within a game of Houston in the Wild Card race; Texas leads the Astros by a game in AL West.
— Royals 12, New York 5— Carlos Rodon faced eight batters, threw 35 pitches, gave up six hits, walked two guys— all eight hitters scored. It was the worst start by any MLB pitcher since 2019, when Stephen Matz faced eight guys, and they all got on base.
Rodon is in the first year of a six-year, $162M contract. Yikes.
— San Francisco Giants fired manager Gabe Kapler Friday, two years after his Giants went 107-55; the other three years he managed the Giants:
2020— 29-31
2021— 107-55
2022— 81-81
2023— 78-81
— Texas Rangers have 30 saves this year; they’ve blown 33 saves. No bueno.
— Louisville 13, NC State 10
Wolfpack led 10-0 at halftime.
Cardinals outgained NC State 306-201; Wolfpack had only 9 first downs.
Louisville kicked a 53-yard FG with 5:32 left for the winning score.
— Oregon State 21, Utah 7
Beavers outgained Utah, 358-198
Utah’s starting QB still hasn’t played this season.
Both teams are 4-1 now.
— Louisiana Tech 24, UTEP 10
Tech led 17-7 at halftime.
Neither team completed half their passes
Tech was 3-11 on third down, UTEP 3-18.
— BYU 35, Cincinnati 27
First score of game was a pick-6 for BYU.
BYU QB Slovis threw TD passes of 22-59 yards.
Bearcats outgained BYU, 498-295
— Word of the Day: Quagmire- an awkward, complex, or hazardous situation.
— Los Angeles Chargers have their bye next week, in Week 5; the last nine years, Chargers are 1-8 ATS in the game before their bye.
— Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is 5-23 SU/9-18-1 ATS as an NFL quarterback; Bears host Denver this week, a team that lost 70-20 last week, but Denver is favored by 3.5 points.
— Green Bay’s Jordan Love is 2-3 in his first five NFL starts.
Aaron Rodgers was 2-3 in his first five NFL starts; so was Brett Favre.
— 21 of the 32 head coaches in the NFL are in their first NFL head coaching job; guys who get fired in the NFL are more likely to go off to college jobs (Matt Rhule, Jim Mora Jr, Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban come to mind).
How come no one has given Dan Quinn another shot at being a head coach? Few years ago, the guy was winning a Super Bowl 28-3. You’d think he would get hired by someone.
— Only one 0-4 NFL team made the playoffs that year: the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
— Thru Thursday’s games, 1,137 baseball games went over the total this season, 1,136 games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota Twins have struck out 1,629 times this season, the most by any team, ever.
— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.
— Best college football teams against the spread:
4-0 ATS: Liberty, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, UNLV
3-0-1 ATS: Rutgers, Syracuse
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Sunday’s 6-pack:
Worst NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
3.82— Texans (42 points/11 drives)
4.00— Jets, Titans
4.10— Vikings, Commanders
4.25— Raiders, Buccaneers
4.27— Cowboys
4.45— Broncos
Quote of the Day
“We’re not the hunted, because we’re going to stay on the hunt. If you’re hunting us, you won’t have to look far. We’re gonna be on your front porch.”
Lions’ coach Dan Campbell
Sunday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker?
Hint: he manages another MLB team now
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
****************************************
UCF led 35-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Down 35-26, Baylor scored on 72-yard fumble return with 6:02 left.
Baylor kicked game-winning field goal with 1:21 left.
— Ole Miss 55, LSU 49
These teams need to recruit A LOT OF defensive players this winter.
Total yardage in game: Ole Miss 706, LSU 637
Rebels had 11 penalties for 120 yards, still scored 55 points.
Ole Miss scored two TD’s in last 5:09 to get the win.
— Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Auburn led 17-10 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
Georgia threw 40-yard TD pass for game-winning score with 2:52 left.
Dawgs’ TE Bowers caught 8 passes for 157 yards and that TD.
— USC 48, Colorado 41
USC led this game 34-7 at one point.
Colorado was 9-18 on third down, Trojans 3-9
USC QB Williams was 30-40/403 yards, with six TD passes.
Colorado QB Sanders was 30-45/371 yards, with four TD passes.
— Notre Dame 21, Duke 14
Notre Dame drove 95 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:31 left.
— Marshall 41, Old Dominion 35
ODU led 21-3 with 10:00 left in second quarter.
Both teams turned ball over three times.
ODU lost despite running ball for 339 yards (10.9 yards/attempt).
— Appalachian State 41, Louisiana-Monroe 40
App State kicked a 54-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
App State was 7-13 on third down, ULM was 3-11.
— Word of the Day— Loyalty— Giving or showing firm and constant support or allegiance to a person, group of people or institution.
— Upsets of the Day:
Bowling Green (+21) 38, Georgia Tech 27
West Virginia (+13) 24, TCU 21
Baylor (+8) 36, Central Florida 35
Buffalo (+3) 13, Akron 10, OT
South Florida (+3) 44, Navy 30
— 12 teams for the baseball playoffs are set; AL West hasn’t been decided yet, with Rangers trying to clinch with a win Sunday.
— Marlins 7, Pirates 3
Miami clinches its first full-season playoff berth since 2003.
Because of this, Mets win Thursday’s game vs Miami, 1-0 in 8 innings- the score reverts to the 8th inning— the ninth inning won’t be finished Monday.
— Rangers 6, Mariners 1
Rangers are in playoffs, need one more win to clinch AL West.
Mariners have been eliminated.
— Astros 1, Diamondbacks 0
Astros are in playoffs, can still win AL West.
Diamondbacks also clinched playoff spot Saturday.
— Padres 6, White Sox 1
San Diego is 81-80; when they won Friday night, it put them at .500 for first time since May 11, when they were 19-19.
— Bowling Green 38, Georgia Tech 27— ACC teams aren’t supposed to lose to MAC teams; losses like this get coaches fired.
— Penn State 41, Northwestern 13
PSU led 34-13 with 2:20 left; they were favored by 26 or 27 points.
Nittany Lions threw a 30-yard TD pass with 2:20 left. On a first down play.
QB took snap, faked taking a knee, then stood up and threw to a wide-open receiver.
Coaches are trying to cover spreads now; be advised if you like to bet on dogs.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Worst NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
3.82— Texans (42 points/11 drives)
4.00— Jets, Titans
4.10— Vikings, Commanders
4.25— Raiders, Buccaneers
4.27— Cowboys
4.45— Broncos
Quote of the Day
“We’re not the hunted, because we’re going to stay on the hunt. If you’re hunting us, you won’t have to look far. We’re gonna be on your front porch.”
Lions’ coach Dan Campbell
Sunday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker?
Hint: he manages another MLB team now
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
****************************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….
— Baylor 36, UCF 35UCF led 35-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Down 35-26, Baylor scored on 72-yard fumble return with 6:02 left.
Baylor kicked game-winning field goal with 1:21 left.
— Ole Miss 55, LSU 49
These teams need to recruit A LOT OF defensive players this winter.
Total yardage in game: Ole Miss 706, LSU 637
Rebels had 11 penalties for 120 yards, still scored 55 points.
Ole Miss scored two TD’s in last 5:09 to get the win.
— Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Auburn led 17-10 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
Georgia threw 40-yard TD pass for game-winning score with 2:52 left.
Dawgs’ TE Bowers caught 8 passes for 157 yards and that TD.
— USC 48, Colorado 41
USC led this game 34-7 at one point.
Colorado was 9-18 on third down, Trojans 3-9
USC QB Williams was 30-40/403 yards, with six TD passes.
Colorado QB Sanders was 30-45/371 yards, with four TD passes.
— Notre Dame 21, Duke 14
Notre Dame drove 95 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:31 left.
— Marshall 41, Old Dominion 35
ODU led 21-3 with 10:00 left in second quarter.
Both teams turned ball over three times.
ODU lost despite running ball for 339 yards (10.9 yards/attempt).
— Appalachian State 41, Louisiana-Monroe 40
App State kicked a 54-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
App State was 7-13 on third down, ULM was 3-11.
— Word of the Day— Loyalty— Giving or showing firm and constant support or allegiance to a person, group of people or institution.
— Upsets of the Day:
Bowling Green (+21) 38, Georgia Tech 27
West Virginia (+13) 24, TCU 21
Baylor (+8) 36, Central Florida 35
Buffalo (+3) 13, Akron 10, OT
South Florida (+3) 44, Navy 30
— 12 teams for the baseball playoffs are set; AL West hasn’t been decided yet, with Rangers trying to clinch with a win Sunday.
— Marlins 7, Pirates 3
Miami clinches its first full-season playoff berth since 2003.
Because of this, Mets win Thursday’s game vs Miami, 1-0 in 8 innings- the score reverts to the 8th inning— the ninth inning won’t be finished Monday.
— Rangers 6, Mariners 1
Rangers are in playoffs, need one more win to clinch AL West.
Mariners have been eliminated.
— Astros 1, Diamondbacks 0
Astros are in playoffs, can still win AL West.
Diamondbacks also clinched playoff spot Saturday.
— Padres 6, White Sox 1
San Diego is 81-80; when they won Friday night, it put them at .500 for first time since May 11, when they were 19-19.
— Bowling Green 38, Georgia Tech 27— ACC teams aren’t supposed to lose to MAC teams; losses like this get coaches fired.
— Penn State 41, Northwestern 13
PSU led 34-13 with 2:20 left; they were favored by 26 or 27 points.
Nittany Lions threw a 30-yard TD pass with 2:20 left. On a first down play.
QB took snap, faked taking a knee, then stood up and threw to a wide-open receiver.
Coaches are trying to cover spreads now; be advised if you like to bet on dogs.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Pending Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Status | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2023 | NFL | Arizona San Francisco | - - | 04:25 PM | SF -14.0 |
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL at CLE | 01:00 PM | BAL -1.0 U 38.5 | +500 +500 |
| DEN at CHI | 01:00 PM | U 47.0 | +500 |
| MIN at CAR | 01:00 PM | O 46.0 | +500 |
| CIN at TEN | 01:00 PM | CIN -2.5 U 41.5 | +500 +500 |
| MIA at BUF | 01:00 PM | BUF -2.5 O 53.5 | +500 +500 |
| LAR at IND | 01:00 PM | LAR -1.0 U 45.0 | +500 +500 |
| WAS at PHI | 01:00 PM | WAS +10.0 U 43.5 | +500 +500 |
| TB at NO | 01:00 PM | NO -4.0 | +500 |
| PIT at HOU | 01:00 PM | PIT -3.0 | +500 |
| LV at LAC | 04:05 PM | LV +7.0 U 48.5 | +500 +500 |
| ARI at SF | 04:25 PM | SF -14.0 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| NE at DAL | 04:25 PM | NE +6.0 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| KC at NYJ | 08:20 PM | NYJ +8.5 U 42.0 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2023 | NFL | Arizona San Francisco | 16 35 | SF -14.0 | Win |
NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/01/2023..............................11 - 10 - 1...............................52.27%....................................+ 00.00
TOTALS....................................11 - 10 - 1...............................52.27%....................................+ 00.00
10/01/2023..............................11 - 10 - 1...............................52.27%....................................+ 00.00
TOTALS....................................11 - 10 - 1...............................52.27%....................................+ 00.00
Monday’s 6-pack:
Baseball Wild Card playoff series (best-of-3, starting Tuesday):
— Texas @ Tampa Bay
— Toronto @ Minnesota
— Arizona @ Milwaukee
— Miami @ Philadelphia
— Mets fired manager Buck Showalter; they were 175-148 in his two years.
— Former Red Sox P Tim Wakefield passed away, at age 57.
Quote of the Day
“On the analytics side, I think the information and the resources the Yankees provide are great. I think it’s just about how we use them and how we value them is an aspect that we just maybe need to look at again. ………I wouldn’t say [we are] overloaded. I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones. We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”
Aaron Judge
Monday’s quiz
Who was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs?
Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
*****************************************
— Commanders led 17-10 at halftime.
— Eagles in 2nd half/OT: 43 plays, 277 yards, 24 points.
— Brown caught nine passes for 175 yards, two TD’s.
— Eagles are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS, scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Commanders forced OT on 10-yard TD pass with 0:01 left.
— Washington’s first two drives: 21 plays, 143 yards, two TD’s.
— Commanders were 8-17 on third down, Eagles 4-12.
— Washington gave up 33-37-34 points the last three weeks.
Rams 29, Colts 23, OT
— Rams led this game 23-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
— LA drove 75 yards for game-winning TD on first drive in OT
— Stafford played whole game, but got hurt (hip??) early in 3rd quarter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Rookie WR Pacua caught nine passes for 163 yards, and the game-winning TD.
— Colts tied game 23-all with 1:56 left, on an 83-yard drive.
— Indy converted both 2-point conversions they tried.
— Road team won all four Colts’ games this year.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games, losing last seven SU.
Odd fact: in 1972, Robert Irsay bought the Rams from the estate of the Rams’ owner, who passed away; he traded the Rams to Carroll Rosenbloom, for the then-Baltimore Colts.
Broncos 31, Bears 28
— Lutz kicked 51-yard FG with 1:51 left for the win.
— Down 28-21 with 7:05, Broncos tied game with a defensive TD.
— Denver’s last three drives: 22 plays, 183 yards, 17 points.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Bears led 28-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
— Bears are 9-29 SU/13-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Fields was 28-35/335 passing, with four TD’s.
— Chicago lost its first four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
Bills 48, Dolphins 20
— Miami’s first two drives: 14 plays, 142 yards, 14 points.
— Miami last nine drives: 44 plays, 257 yards, six points.
— Dolphins converted only 3-10 third down plays.
— Miami’s opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 123-33.
— Bills’ first nine drives: 46 plays, 393 yards, six TD’s, 2 FG’s.
— Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards, three TD’s.
— Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
— First three drives, Jaguars ran 22 plays for 146 yards, got TD-FG.
— Jaguars made it 17-0 on a 61-yard pick-6- it was 17-0 at the half.
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down in three games.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +8 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Falcons’ first five drives: 22 plays, 53 yards, 3 punts, 2 INT’s.
— Atlanta’s only TD came on 75-yard drive, first drive of 3rd quarter.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.
Ravens 28, Browns 3
— Baltimore had TD drives of 10-94-93-38 yards.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— QB Watson didn’t play; backup Thompson-Robinson was overmatched.
— In his first NFL start, DTR threw 3 INT’s, averaged 1.8 yards/attempt.
— For the game, Cleveland ran 65 plays for 166 yards.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26-28 in their losses.
Texans 30, Steelers 6
— Steelers in first half: 24 plays, 53 yards, no points.
— Pittsburgh averaged 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Steelers have been outgained by 140 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— Texans’ first three drives: 28 plays, 155 yards, TD-FG-FG
— Rookie QB Stroud averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt last two games.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
Vikings 21, Panthers 13
— Cousins threw a 99-yard pick-6 on Minnesota’s first series.
— That was Carolina’s only touchdown all day.
— Down 13-7, Vikings scored defensive TD to take lead for good.
— Vikings are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass.
— Carolina led this game 13-7 at halftime.
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Opponents are 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina lost first four games, scoring 10-17-27-13 points.
Buccaneers 26, Saints 9
— Bucs converted 27 of first 57 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay has 10 takeaways in four games (+7 turnovers)
— Opponents’ team total is 3-0-1 under this year.
— Under is 13-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 18 road games.
— New Orleans was outgained, 353-197.
— Saints averaged only 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 12-7 in Saints’ last 19 home games.
— Last 5+ years, NO is 5-10-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
Titans 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals drove 72 yards for a FG on their first drive- their only score.
— Cincinnati was 2-9 on third down, Tennessee 8-13.
— Bengals averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last eighteen road games.
— Titans’ first five drives: 34 plays, 273 yards, 3 TD’s and a FG.
— Tennessee outgained the Bengals, 400-211.
— Titans are 29-18-2 ATS in last 49 games coming off a loss.
— Titans scored 27-27 points in its wins; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
Chargers 24, Raiders 17
— Chargers’ first five drives: 37 plays, 240 yards, 24 points.
— Chargers’ last six drives: 26 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— QB Herbert played 4th quarter with splint on finger on his left hand.
— Last three games, Chargers converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 passing in his first NFL start.
— Raiders converted 1-11 third down plays, 3-3 on fourth down.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-16 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17 points in first three games.
Cowboys 38, Patriots 3
— Dallas scored two defensive TD’s in the second quarter.
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 15-49.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 20-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys’ three wins are by a combined 108-13.
— Patriots drove 64 yards for FG on first drive, their only score of game.
— New England ran ball 23 times for only 53 yards.
— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— Belichick was 249-75 with Brady as his QB, is 81-93 without him.
49ers 35, Cardinals 16
— 49ers led 21-16 after three quarters.
— SF’s first three drives: 22 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Purdy averaged 12.3 yards/pass attempt.
— SF is 9-1 ATS in last nine games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers ran 53 plays; only five of them were on 3rd down (3-5).
— SF won first four games, scoring 30-30-30-35 points.
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Arizona has been outscored 61-24 in 2nd half.
Chiefs 23, Jets 20
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 19 plays, 215 yards, 17 points.
— Chiefs rest of game: 50 plays, 191 yards, 6 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 13 plays, 43 yards, no points.
— Chiefs led 17-0 after the first quarter.
— Wilson was 28-39/245 passing, with two TD’s.
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
Baseball Wild Card playoff series (best-of-3, starting Tuesday):
— Texas @ Tampa Bay
— Toronto @ Minnesota
— Arizona @ Milwaukee
— Miami @ Philadelphia
— Mets fired manager Buck Showalter; they were 175-148 in his two years.
— Former Red Sox P Tim Wakefield passed away, at age 57.
Quote of the Day
“On the analytics side, I think the information and the resources the Yankees provide are great. I think it’s just about how we use them and how we value them is an aspect that we just maybe need to look at again. ………I wouldn’t say [we are] overloaded. I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones. We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”
Aaron Judge
Monday’s quiz
Who was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs?
Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
*****************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Eagles 34, Commanders 31, OT— Commanders led 17-10 at halftime.
— Eagles in 2nd half/OT: 43 plays, 277 yards, 24 points.
— Brown caught nine passes for 175 yards, two TD’s.
— Eagles are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS, scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Commanders forced OT on 10-yard TD pass with 0:01 left.
— Washington’s first two drives: 21 plays, 143 yards, two TD’s.
— Commanders were 8-17 on third down, Eagles 4-12.
— Washington gave up 33-37-34 points the last three weeks.
Rams 29, Colts 23, OT
— Rams led this game 23-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
— LA drove 75 yards for game-winning TD on first drive in OT
— Stafford played whole game, but got hurt (hip??) early in 3rd quarter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Rookie WR Pacua caught nine passes for 163 yards, and the game-winning TD.
— Colts tied game 23-all with 1:56 left, on an 83-yard drive.
— Indy converted both 2-point conversions they tried.
— Road team won all four Colts’ games this year.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games, losing last seven SU.
Odd fact: in 1972, Robert Irsay bought the Rams from the estate of the Rams’ owner, who passed away; he traded the Rams to Carroll Rosenbloom, for the then-Baltimore Colts.
Broncos 31, Bears 28
— Lutz kicked 51-yard FG with 1:51 left for the win.
— Down 28-21 with 7:05, Broncos tied game with a defensive TD.
— Denver’s last three drives: 22 plays, 183 yards, 17 points.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Bears led 28-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
— Bears are 9-29 SU/13-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Fields was 28-35/335 passing, with four TD’s.
— Chicago lost its first four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
Bills 48, Dolphins 20
— Miami’s first two drives: 14 plays, 142 yards, 14 points.
— Miami last nine drives: 44 plays, 257 yards, six points.
— Dolphins converted only 3-10 third down plays.
— Miami’s opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 123-33.
— Bills’ first nine drives: 46 plays, 393 yards, six TD’s, 2 FG’s.
— Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards, three TD’s.
— Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
— First three drives, Jaguars ran 22 plays for 146 yards, got TD-FG.
— Jaguars made it 17-0 on a 61-yard pick-6- it was 17-0 at the half.
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down in three games.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +8 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Falcons’ first five drives: 22 plays, 53 yards, 3 punts, 2 INT’s.
— Atlanta’s only TD came on 75-yard drive, first drive of 3rd quarter.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.
Ravens 28, Browns 3
— Baltimore had TD drives of 10-94-93-38 yards.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— QB Watson didn’t play; backup Thompson-Robinson was overmatched.
— In his first NFL start, DTR threw 3 INT’s, averaged 1.8 yards/attempt.
— For the game, Cleveland ran 65 plays for 166 yards.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26-28 in their losses.
Texans 30, Steelers 6
— Steelers in first half: 24 plays, 53 yards, no points.
— Pittsburgh averaged 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Steelers have been outgained by 140 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— Texans’ first three drives: 28 plays, 155 yards, TD-FG-FG
— Rookie QB Stroud averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt last two games.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
Vikings 21, Panthers 13
— Cousins threw a 99-yard pick-6 on Minnesota’s first series.
— That was Carolina’s only touchdown all day.
— Down 13-7, Vikings scored defensive TD to take lead for good.
— Vikings are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass.
— Carolina led this game 13-7 at halftime.
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Opponents are 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina lost first four games, scoring 10-17-27-13 points.
Buccaneers 26, Saints 9
— Bucs converted 27 of first 57 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay has 10 takeaways in four games (+7 turnovers)
— Opponents’ team total is 3-0-1 under this year.
— Under is 13-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 18 road games.
— New Orleans was outgained, 353-197.
— Saints averaged only 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 12-7 in Saints’ last 19 home games.
— Last 5+ years, NO is 5-10-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
Titans 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals drove 72 yards for a FG on their first drive- their only score.
— Cincinnati was 2-9 on third down, Tennessee 8-13.
— Bengals averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last eighteen road games.
— Titans’ first five drives: 34 plays, 273 yards, 3 TD’s and a FG.
— Tennessee outgained the Bengals, 400-211.
— Titans are 29-18-2 ATS in last 49 games coming off a loss.
— Titans scored 27-27 points in its wins; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
Chargers 24, Raiders 17
— Chargers’ first five drives: 37 plays, 240 yards, 24 points.
— Chargers’ last six drives: 26 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— QB Herbert played 4th quarter with splint on finger on his left hand.
— Last three games, Chargers converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 passing in his first NFL start.
— Raiders converted 1-11 third down plays, 3-3 on fourth down.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-16 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17 points in first three games.
Cowboys 38, Patriots 3
— Dallas scored two defensive TD’s in the second quarter.
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 15-49.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 20-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys’ three wins are by a combined 108-13.
— Patriots drove 64 yards for FG on first drive, their only score of game.
— New England ran ball 23 times for only 53 yards.
— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— Belichick was 249-75 with Brady as his QB, is 81-93 without him.
49ers 35, Cardinals 16
— 49ers led 21-16 after three quarters.
— SF’s first three drives: 22 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Purdy averaged 12.3 yards/pass attempt.
— SF is 9-1 ATS in last nine games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers ran 53 plays; only five of them were on 3rd down (3-5).
— SF won first four games, scoring 30-30-30-35 points.
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Arizona has been outscored 61-24 in 2nd half.
Chiefs 23, Jets 20
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 19 plays, 215 yards, 17 points.
— Chiefs rest of game: 50 plays, 191 yards, 6 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 13 plays, 43 yards, no points.
— Chiefs led 17-0 after the first quarter.
— Wilson was 28-39/245 passing, with two TD’s.
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
Pending Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Status | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2023 | NFL | Seattle N.Y. Giants | - - | 08:15 PM | Over 46.0 |
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2023 | NFL | Arizona San Francisco | 16 35 | SF -14.0 | Win |
NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1.....................................50.00%....................................- 00.50
10/01/2023..............................11 - 10 - 1...............................52.27%...................................+ 00.00
TOTALS....................................12 - 11 - 1...............................52.17%...................................- 00.50
10/02/2023...............................1 - 1.....................................50.00%....................................- 00.50
10/01/2023..............................11 - 10 - 1...............................52.27%...................................+ 00.00
TOTALS....................................12 - 11 - 1...............................52.17%...................................- 00.50
