NFL Buys for 2020

[RBD]

I work mainly in college ball, but I want to try what usually works for me in college in the pros this year.

I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy?
Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for opinions on that particular game.

Small $ plays for action and fun as these are new things I'm just trying out.
I do have one NFL system I use, the oldest one I have in any sport, dates back around 20 years, pops up 3-4 times per season. When it shows up, I make investment buys on it, not small $.

Week One plays:

Contrarian spots
NYJ/Buf Ov
TB/NO Un

Temperature plays
Balt -8
Tenn +1'

It doesn't matter if these spots have a high win % or a high loss %, a 4-8 record is just as valuable as 8-4, you just fade the losing record and bet the other side. The point is to try and uncover something that has a steady % either way, and grab a few wins on it before it levels out, as all trends do over time.

The virus adds a new dimension to handicapping this year (as if it isn't already challenging enough.)
How will scoring be affected by empty stadiums? No one knows. I'm taking a wait and see attitude.
I'd like to get some data in before jumping in too deep.

I made one buy thus far, Baltimore.
I'm laying the 8 now because I expect it could go to double digits by game day.

Also, I know I'm going to want action while watching Thursday's season opener, but don't want to lay the 9', so I'm going with a two team teaser, KC -3 & Balt - 1', laying 12/10.

Buys:
Balt -8
KC-3/Balt -1' teaser

Good luck to us all the season . . .

Friday Update: Looking ahead to Sunday's card, I made another buy today.
I don't see any way They Who Cannot Be Named pulls a win out of their ass on Sunday.
(Their new name should be The Cavemen, cause that's what they did - caved.)
I trust the Eagle D. I don't trust the O, took 'em in a 5' pt open-end teaser (I like these), 2-teamer +101.

Buys:
Balt -8
KC-3/Balt -1' teaser
Philly pk/open teaser

 

[RBD]

Update: Added GB/Min Un.
There's a couple 45 out there but 44' is the common number so that's what I'll use here.

Buys:
Balt -8
KC-3/Balt -1' teaser
Philly pk/open teaser
GB/Min Un 44'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split.
Hit with Balt -8 and KC/Balt teaser.
Missed with the GB Un and Philly teaser (Eagles had a 10 pt lead at the half, looking okay as expected, then get outscored 20-0 in the second half. Wentz sucks.)

I was incorrect on the line movement for Balt, I bought it early in the week at -8 because I thought it would go higher. On game day it was 7'. Same as the start of last year - books overestimating the Mayfields, and underestimating the Ravens.

Record, 2-2, -$10.
Sides 1-0
Ov/Un 0-1
Teasers 1-1

A look at the systems I posted last week:

Contrarian spots
NYJ/Buf Ov Win
TB/NO Un Loss

Temperature plays
Balt -8 Win
Tenn +1' (Play tonight)

Will have a better idea of if there's any value in these after getting another week of data.


I bought one play this morning. I'll stick with what works until it stops working.
Took the Chiefs -1 in a two team teaser with Balt + 1/2 @ 13/10.

I can't see Tyrod keeping pace with KC's offense (I can't see Tyrod keeping pace with anybody), and week one showed Baltimore looking like they're in the same form as last season.
Last year the Ravens saw Houston in Week 7 and dismantled them 41-7 in Baltimore.
Playing at home this year isn't going to help the Texans much, even if it was a crowded stadium.
The Ravens have now won 15 of their last 18 with Jackson at the helm, only losses were to KC (Hou ain't no KC), the fluke loss to the Browns in the hangover spot off the KC loss, and the playoff game to Tennessee.
With this tease, I just need them and KC each to win SU, something they've both been doing a lot of lately.

 

[RBD]

Here are the system spots for this week.

Play #1:

Bal/Hou Ov 51'

Record on these is 1-1, Ov 1-0, Un 0-1

Play #2:

Buf -5'
KC -8'
LAR -1

Record on these is 2-0, Favs 1-0, Dogs 1-0.

No buys on these yet. I will add a few buys later this week.

Buys:
KC -1/Balt + 1/2 @ 13/10

 

[RBD]

As I'm looking over today's card, I'm going to isolate a few plays I like and keep adding updates on them on here.

Right now, adding Car/TB Ov 41 in a two team teaser with an open spot, 11/10.


Buys:
KC -1/Balt + 1/2 @ 13/10
Car/TB Ov 41/open @ 11/10

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit with the KC/Balt teaser.
Also hit with the front end of a 2 team teaser (Car/TB Ov) second spot still open, giving me the opportunity to use a 6 pt advantage on any line or total in any upcoming game (It's always nice to have one of those in your back pocket.)

Record, 3-2, +$90.
Sides 1-0
Ov/Un 0-1
Teasers 2-1


Why didn't I use any of the system plays last week?
Because I don't trust them.
Too new, not enough data. They work for me in college, but the pro's is a different animal.
System records:

Play #1:
1-2, Ov 1-1, Un 0-1

Play #2:
Record on these is 2-3, Favs 1-3, Dogs 1-0.

Here are this week's system spots:
Play #1
SF/NYG Un 42/41
Hou/Pit Ov 45
Det/Az Un 53/54'

Play #2:
Oak +6

No value in these, so no plays. I'll track for a few more weeks, but if the records hover a game or two above or below .500 I'll drop them as they have no worth.

I'm working on two other situational systems. I'm tracking the plays in my logbook, if either starts to show value I'll post them here.
Was going to ride the KC/Balt teaz until it loses but they play each other this week.
No buys for me for this week; yet.

 

[RBD]

Second half play;
NE - 3

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with NE -3, second half as they outscored Oak 23-10.

This was a play based on the premise that after a win over a lousy Carolina team, and a win over a decent New Orleans team, the Raiders were due to turn back into a pumpkin.
Last year they were one of the worst second half teams, and this seemed like a good spot for QB Carr to get rattled and the team to return to form, so I jumped on the Pats when the books only hung a 3.

That was my only play. I looked at the card all week long, but didn't pull the trigger on any early buys, and on Sunday morning I knew that any bet I made would just be throwing darts. Obviously I don't win every wager I make, but 99% are based on situational plays that I have an edge on. I had none yesterday, so I thought the best move was to watch the games and see if I had anything that looked good for a second half wager.

If you don't like anything, there is no rule saying you can't wait until next time.
When you force a bet, you'll usually end up donating to your book.
Discipline is a key to finishing the season on the + side.

Record, 4-2, +$190.
Sides 1-0
Ov/Un 0-1
Teasers 2-1
Second half plays: 1-0

Systems plays:

Play # 1 went 2-1.
Record is now 3-3; Ov 2-1, Un 1-2.

Play #2 went 1-1.
Record is now 3-4; Favs 3-3, Dogs 0-1

Both plays hovering around .500, no value in playing or fading.

I'll be back after I make my #'s, then handicap this week's card.
In the meantime, here are some general stats for your consideration/use.
A big question coming into this season is - "With the lack of preseason games and limited practice time,
what would scoring be like?"

The old saying goes, "D's are usually ahead of O's to open the season because O's take time/need repetition to find rhythms and get the their timing down."
So far, going into tonight's game, here's what Ov/Un's look like:
Week 1: 9 Ov, 7 Un
Week 2: 11 Ov, 5 Un
Week 3: 9 Ov, 6 Un
Total: 29-18

Games with a total of 48 or > are 9-6 to the Over.

When is the majority of scoring being done? Q4.
30 of 47 (64%) games have seen Q4's of 14 or >.
I noticed that while 'capping the Dal/Sea game, looking for an edge for a little TV action.
Last week Sea/NE put up 20 in Q4 in Seattle, and Atl/Dal combined for 26 in Dallas.
I figured this week's game in Seattle would look similar to those two, an exciting game, coming down to the wire, and the books made it an easy play by hanging a 14 on Q4. They scored 17.

That's just some info for you to use as you look over this week's card.
(And tonight's Q4 is 13'. More food for thought - Week one, Q4, Balt 7, KC 23; Week two, Balt 16, KC 14. The only Q4 that did not hit 14 or > was the Raven's blowout win over a non-competitive Cleveland. Tonight's game will be competitive. LY's game between these two, Q4? 18 pts.)

 

[RBD]

Hope someone found the blueprint I laid out for Q4 interesting as it got a beautiful setup with Balt starting Q4 at 2nd and goal on KC's 5 yard line. A quick score meant there was an entire quarter to get one more TD, and KC obliged. A 14 pt Q4 with a line of 13' for a win by a hook for anyone who bought in.

And KC looks like a good candidate for the same play this week, as they get NE, who are the 3rd highest Q4 scoring team in the league (11 pt per Q4). KC is tied for 6th at 9.3 pt per Q4.
Their D's combine for 16 pts per Q4, so as long as the books don't get wise and hang a hook on top of 14, the math favors taking a shot at the play at 13' or 14.

This week's spots:

Play #1 (3-3; Ov 2-1, Un 1-2):
NO/Det Un 54
Phil/SF Un 45
LAC/TB Un 45
Min/Hou Ov 54
NE/KC Un 54

Play #2 (3-4; Favs 3-3, Dogs 0-1)
Pit -2

A lot to choose from. If nothing else, with 4 plays on the Under, we might get a sense of if they'll have any value this season (unless they go 2-2.)

No buys for me yet. I'll watch the lines and see if any of these spots fit the other two plays I'm charting in my log book, hoping a game or two will fit two or more systems, giving me confidence to make it a play.

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD

TNF 4th quarter 12.5 pts.

Any thoughts? Just curious if you had one. Kinda thinking under but wanted your thoughts if you had one

 

[Coach Woody]

Glad I didn't play it. Points over

Weird game last night.

I hit all my plays on it but the total.

 

[RBD]

Coach,
Sorry, I wasn't online last night, didn't see your question until this morning.

Based on the #'s I noted in post #8 in this thread, it's not likely I'd take an Under 12' in any Q4 when approx. 65% of them are seeing 14 or >.
I had a few $'s on Denver, based on the simple, tried and true handicapping system of "Gase sucks."
Also hit with the prop "Shortest FG Un 27" thinking that both O's would stall multiple times and end up going for FG's.
Like you, I lost on the total, thinking it might stay Under.

Still haven't bought anything for this Sunday, nothing stands out, and I'm spending most of my time on Saturday's games.

I also have a few "Be a Better Bettor Newsletters" almost ready to go.
One of them debunks the "Sharp Money is on Team X!" crap you see all the time,
and the other is on the often mentioned but totally false "trap game" theory.

 

[Coach Woody]

Looking forward to reading them.

Thanks for all you do on here. Your insight has talked me in to an out of a few plays.

Crush them tomorrow.

 

[RBD]

One buy for now, more coming.
NO -3.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with NO.
The play came from a new thing I'm working on, sides are 6-2, totals are 2-1, maybe I've found something I can use. We'll see. I'll track and post as Play #3.
Record now 5-2.

System Play #1 went 3-2 last week.
#2 had no plays as Pit/Tenn game was X'd.

This week's spots:

Play #1 Car/Atl Un
Record on these is 6-5; 3-1 Ov, 3-4 Un

Play #2 Indy -2'
Record on these is 3-4; Favs 3-3, Dogs 0-1

No buys for me, yet.

 

[RBD]

Feeling good off a nice Saturday...

Play #1 and #2 are in the post above this.
Play #3:
(sides 6-2; Favs 5-2, Dogs 1-0)
(Totals 2-1; Ov 0-0, Un 2-1)
KC -11', LAR -7, Bal -12, SF Un 51,
Dal -7, Indy +1.

I still have the second half of an open end teaser posted here on 9/24.
I'm looking at the card for a team that only has to win if I use the 6 points and San Fran looks like the best candidate.
I like them on gut feel to win SU,
I like 'em cuz they're in Play #3,
and I like 'em because if head coach Ramirez thinks that the way to get away from throwing interceptions is to go from Haskins to Allen, he's wrong.

My first elimination for use in that teaser was KC, so I'm going to open up a new one with them.

And I like Indy/Cleveland as a high scoring game, taking Indy (they fit Play #2 & 3) and the Over in that one.

Buys:
Rams -1 (second spot of a teaser)
KC -5' (2 team teaser, 2nd half open, 11/10)
Indy +1
Indy team total Ov 23'
Indy/Cleveland Ov 48

 

[RBD]

Recap: Phillip Rivers kept me from a winning day by a half point on their team total Over 23'.

Indy's scores a TD on their first possession, then goes into the prevent offense, relying on their run game and not scoring another TD the rest of the game. I don't know how they expect to win a game when they only pass the ball 11 times in the first, aprox. 35-40 minutes, especially against a Brown's defense that gives up over 31 pts per game and over 300 yards in the air per game.
Terrible game plan by Indy.
And River's didn't help with his two INT's and intentional grounding in the end zone.

So, a 2-3 day instead of 3-2, by a hook. Hit with the Rams in the 2nd half of the open teaser I had, and hit with Indy/Cleve Over. Missed with KC in the teaz, Indy Over 23' and Indy +1.

Record: 7-5

Play #1 went 1-0; season now 7-5; Ov 3-1, Un 4-4
Play #2 went 0-1; season now 3-5; Favs 3-3, Dogs 0-2
Play #3 went 2-5; season now 10-7; Favs 7-4, Dogs 1-1, Ov 0-0, Un 2-2

Back Tue with this week's spots.

Update, Tue:
Still have work to do to finish the card, but tonight Buf -3 fits Play #2.
No buy for me, record keeping purposes only.

Play #1
GB/TB Un 52/54
NYJ/Mia Un 49/47'

Play #2
Buf -3'/-3 (L vs Tenn)
NYG -4/-2'
Bal - 7'
Mia - 9/8'

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Before it has a hook hung on it everywhere, I bought LAR -3 -120 today.

Sure it hits on ALL 7 parameters I like to see when 'capping,

better PF (Points For),
better PA (Points Against)
better T/O #,
better RO (Rushing Offense, yds per game)
better PD (Psssing Defense, yds per game)
higher ranking
and better SOS (Strength of Schedule),

but sometimes you have to toss the numbers, whether they are in your favor or not,
and bet on simple truisms, simple undeniable facts.
Such as Garappolo sucks.

Buys:
LAR -3

Add before the lines go up tomorrow:
KC +1/Ov 51

 

[RBD]

I like Detroit today, but since their specialty is blowing fourth-quarter leads I'm taking them at the half, too. Jags have been ahead at halftime in only one of five games this year, so I'm hoping that the Lions, fresh off a bye, can jump on them early.

Buys:
LAR -3
Det -3
Det 1st half -2'
And buying today before the lines go up tomorrow:
KC +1/Ov 51

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1 Sunday, I'll take it.
Only loss was with LAR, I watched the first three quarters before giving up,
still not sure what the hell I saw.
Cooper had SF in the office pool?
Record: 9-6.

Have KC/Ov teaser buy still open.

Missed it when doing early week capping, but KC is in Play #2 (1-2 on Favs yesterday, 4-6 Overall.)

Adding Az tm total Over 27 (-140)
Juice-y, but how do they NOT score more than 30 against this defense?
Only happens if the Cowboys go heavy on the run, eating up clock with long drives that end up with FG's.
But based off of last week's performance, I think they'll let Dalton throw the ball.