NFL Buys for 2020

[RBD]

I don't like much on today's card so I'm going to close out the teaser from last week. Have two spots to choose from in Play #1 (record above), I'm going to use the Chi/GB game.

A check of the weather report shows nothing to be concerned about.
The number is sitting at 44 all across the board right now. Being as it's a stand-alone Sunday night game, late money usually comes in on the Over so it's probably best to buy it early.

I had success with Trubisky when he was at North Carolina. Tonight might be his last chance to show that he can play in the NFL, he'lI want to make the most of it.

Rogers and Green Bay at home should surpass 20, which means in a tease, I'll likely only need 14+ from Trubisky, and I should get that even if it includes points of off the interception he's inevitably going to throw as he forces a pass.

Side note - yesterday I shared what I call Pyrite Plays, in my college post, pointing out that they're good fades because it's based on BS information (I'll do a post on that, explaining what I mean, when I get some free time.)

The picks went 3-5, which means fading them as I suggested got you a 5-3 day. Total record is charted at 13-25 in college, a fade good for 25-13, a hair under 67%.
(And I forgot to get them posted early, most of them kicked off, but I pointed out there were two left if anyone wanted to ride along with them. Anyone who did went 2-0.)

In the NFL it's only 3-3, Favs 1-0, Dogs 1-3, one play on the money line. Three spots today, Car, LAC, SF, all dogs. Fade 'em if you're looking for action on those three games.


Buys:
Chi/GB Ov 37

 

[RBD]

Recap: Had two spots to choose from in Play #1 (LAR or GB) to close out my teaser.
Ultimately, it didn't matter as both spots would have covered for me. But my 'situation required me to choose the one I thought would have the higher score and give me the best chance of winning, and I got that with GB (66 pts scored, compared to LAR 43.) It's always good to know you're seeing things clearly and your 'cap was correct, even though either spot would have done the job.

Record: 15-8, +$620

Play #1 split, LAR missed by 1 to 1' depending on the line you got. The miss was due to a lack of scoring from LAR more than SF, who was expected to struggle. I'll try to avoid using Ov/Un's with the Rams, they're too Jekyll and Hyde.

Play #1 is now 18-7, Ov 8-3, Un 10-4.

I'll be back with this week's spots if there are any.

 

[RBD]

Three spots to choose from this week in Play #1 (record in the post above.)

Oak/NYJ Ov
Phil/GB Ov
Buf/SF Un

Based on the record, these are all good spots.
Just banked on an Over with GB last week, not sure if I want to try it again, especially with the dysfunctional offense of Philly.

Forgot to update/recap Pyrite Plays from last week, they went 2-1,
5-4 on the season so fading would have you down a unit (but not if you played college spots too.)

I'm just one win away from the Grail I seek, 67%. Will choose very carefully this week.
No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Be a Better Bettor Newsletter, Dec 3, 2020

Thinking about boxes to help you think outside the box.

There's an old, math riddle:

Three boxes in front of you, left, center, right. In one, cash, the other two are empty.
Choose the one with cash and you get to keep the money.
Choose.
Let's say you take the middle one. They open the box on the left end, and . . . it's empty.
Now comes the big decision - what do you do?

A) Stay with your original choice?
B) Switch, and choose the one you didn't take with your original pick?
C) Doesn't matter, odds are the same either way?

What's the answer?

Post a reply if you want to take a guess, or, just think about it for a bit.
I'll stop back in with the answer before game day.
And for those of you thinking, "What the hell does this have to do with handicapping the games this week?"
I'll answer that too when I come back, because it has a direct tie to this Sunday's card.

 

[Okie]

My Answer

My Answer

A) Stay with original choice

Okie

 

[Coach Woody]

I would switch.... The chances of picking the right box was 33 percent to start and 66 percent that I didn't pick

If I switch in a sense I got two choices at 66 percent chance of getting the wrong box as appose to only one chance. by switching to the other box I have a 66 percent chance of being right.

By reveling the middle box I know it wasn't;t there so 66 percent is a better chance then 33.

B. Switch the boxes for me

 

[jng]

I would switch.... The chances of picking the right box was 33 percent to start and 66 percent that I didn't pick

If I switch in a sense I got two choices at 66 percent chance of getting the wrong box as appose to only one chance. by switching to the other box I have a 66 percent chance of being right.

By reveling the middle box I know it wasn't;t there so 66 percent is a better chance then 33.

B. Switch the boxes for me

You got it, Coach! Trying to explain this always make my head hurt.

 

[Tkj]

B is my answer

 

[RBD]

The odds say switch and take the other box, as explained by Coach above.

Look at it like this - choosing one of three you have a 33% chance.
Then one box is removed.
Sticking with your original box means you have the box with a 33% chance.
By switching, you now have a box with a 50% chance, as you're now picking one of two.

The other side of the debate is:
You're choosing one of two, so no matter which you pick your odds are 50-50.
And, the remaining box that you didn't choose was also one of three originally, so it has the same 33% chance as the one you first picked.

You can see why there's debate on it.

Now, on to how it relates to picks.
Play # 1 has three picks this week, Oak/NJ Ov, Phil/GB Ov, Buf/SF Un.
It's a 72% play (Ov 8-3, Un 10-4) so it's pretty much a given that at least one will win.
But which game/box has the cash in it?

My first choice is the Buf/SF spot.

While looking at the schedule, I realized this sets up like the three boxes riddle:
Jet's @10 am, GB @1 pm, SF Monday @5 pm.
If I lay off the Jets spot, and it loses (no cash in the box) my decision becomes - stick with my original pick or switch to Phil/GB?

My decision will be made on other factors, but when looking at my situation it reminded me of the riddle and I thought I'd mention it here.

I missed out on the opening 48 in SF, 47' is the common number now, just another factor to consider when 'capping this situation. But I know this - if both Sunday games lose, I'm definitely going to be on the SF spot, because the odds say that will be the box with the cash in it.

 

[Coach Woody]

I'm hoping there is money in all three boxes

 

[RBD]

Me too, Coach, because I'm starting with...

Buys:
Oak/NYJ Ov 48


Pyrite Plays (No buy recommendations):
Hou +3, NYJ +7', Atl +3, Phil +7', Den +13'.
I have these at 5-4, Favs 1-0, Dogs 3-4, M/L 1-0.
(Anybody who reads my posts knows these
Pyrite Plays are fades, sorry if I threw anybody by not posting the reminder.)

 

[Coach Woody]

That box had money. We finding money in box two also RBD?

 

[Tkj]

:0074:0074:0074

 

[RBD]

Thanks Tkj.

Coach, I was looking to make just one buy today. Had I missed the first buy I would have went for the second game in Play #1, but with the early win I've hit the ultimate goal I set for myself. I'll enjoy it for a week, just a little TV fun stuff for me in baskets and football, but no more buy recommendations for today.

Pyrite fades went 2-1 this morning, two of those left and also two plays left in Play #1 if anybody's looking for reasons/stats to use.
Good luck with whatever you guys play the rest of the day...

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with Oak/NJY Over.
Record: 16-8, +$720.

Got the Grail. Week 13 and I'm at 67%.

Play #1 was at 18-7, with three spots to choose from.
Of the three spots, I didn't like GB Over for reasons mentioned above, re: Philly's dysfunctional offense.
The Eagle's O only put up 10 pts (special teams got them their other TD) and the game stayed Under by a 1/2 pt from the opening #, and one pt from where it sat for most of the week before rising to 50 on Sunday.

Remember - you DON'T have to bet every game.
Banking the unit from the Jets game, and not letting it ride on the second play was the right move, especially at the higher line of 50.

One spot left, the play I liked best of the three, Buf/SF Under.
I have conflicting stats on this spot, so I'll likely lay off, but if late $ pushes the total up I may buy it.

Pyrite Plays went 2-3, making the fade profitable in both college and pro's this week.
Two spots active tonight: Wash +6 and SF -1'.
Overall in the NFL 7-7, Favs 1-0, Dogs 5-7, M/L 1-0.
Remember - these are fades, so the plays would be Pitt & Buff.

No buys for me. Yet.

 

[RBD]

I can't say it enough - you don't have to bet every game.
I had a play I liked last night, Buf/SF Un was active in Play #1, a spot that is 10-4.
I had it circled all week, but yesterday my gut feeling/instinct told me to lay off. Good move as it went Over.

I had a good day in college hoops Thursday, was going to try to repeat it come Friday.
But Friday I didn't feel well, so I took the day off. My circled plays went 2-3.

You don't have to bet everyday.
You don't have to bet every game.
Follow your instinct (unless your instinct sucks, then you're pretty much fucked.)

My oldest profile spot is active again this week, and just like the previous two times, I hate it.
Why can't I get just ONE of these where I'm not betting on a dysfunctional offense?

First it was Dallas, right after they lost Dak (a dysfunctional offense AND a can't stop-anybody defense.)
Next was Denver.
Both won ATS.
And now, the next team to appear in this spot is . . .

Philly.

Ugh.
Double ugh.

Fresh off a 10 point outburst vs GB (toss one TD as it was scored by the special teams, not the O),
which followed a 6 pt/2 FG's appearance vs Seattle's Swiss cheese defense (toss out the TD scored with just 12 seconds left, Seattle gave it to them, the game was over at that point),
which was preceded by another 10 pt outing vs the Browns (again, toss the last TD which came with just 30 seconds left, same as the Seattle gimme.)

It's Tuesday, and we don't even know who their QB will be.
As HC Pederson said yesterday, "You'll know when I know."

It'll be either Wentz, who sucks, or Hurts, who is an untested rookie.

And do we get to face the Jets, Jags, or some similar non-competitive competition?
No. The 10-2 Saints are marching in.

Just once this season, I'd like to get this, my favorite NFL spot, in a normal game between two healthy, competitive teams. Philly is + 7 and it's not enough.
This will NOT be the NFC East NYG's vs Seattle.
This will NOT be the NFC East Redskins (yes, the Redskins) vs the Steelers.
As ridiculous as it sounds, and it sounds very ridiculous, the NFC East Eagles at 3-8 are not out of the playoff hunt yet. They sit just two games out of the lead. At 3-8!
But I saw two things in them last week: frustration and quit.

So, I have a team that is 3-8, with who-knows at QB, led by an indecisive HC who doesn't know who his QB will be, and a bunch of guys who look like they've quit on the season.
Yeah, I'm loving this spot.

No buy yet as the line should move in my favor.
Even when it does, I'll do what I did the previous two times this season - tease them.
And it probably still won't be enough.

 

[namja]

I can't say it enough - you don't have to bet every game.

:iagree:

But ... Dammit! I already placed 18 bets today. Across NFL & CBB. 40 units total. D?oh! Ok, no more bets today. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Unless I should backdoor my 6 team parlay, then probably. But nothing else.

 

[RBD]

Namja - What I offer is only my opinion on how to wager. There's nothing wrong with betting a bunch of games as long as it's disposable income, the bills are paid, and no one is hurt. Have at it, enjoy yourself!
Good luck with your plays.

Play #1
Overs in Az/NYG, KC/Mia, NO/Phil
Under in Minn/TB

The other play I have is my fav/oldest spot (as noted in the post above): Phil +7

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

The Philly line was +7 across the board, it's split now, half the board at +7, half at +6'.
Have people NOT seen this team play??!!

Based on the system I noted in my post on 12/8, Philly is the play.
I'm going to grab a 7 before they're gone and tease it up to +14, just as I did the previous two times this spot appeared this season.

Buys:
Philly +14, two team tease, 13/10, second spot open.

 

[Tkj]

Thanks RBD!