NFL Buys for 2020

[RBD]

Tkj - you're welcome.

Recap: I don't know why that play winS so much but it does. It has for what? - almost 20 years now?
From post #1, back on Sept. 4:
"I work mainly in college ball. I do have one NFL system I use, the oldest one I have in any sport, dates back around 20 years, pops up 3-4 times per season."

The Eagles game was the third time this season, 3-0.
I teased them all, didn't need to.
If we get one more I'll tease that too - I stick with what works, and I'm very superstitious.

It was a strange Sunday. I spent more time working on Kids Ball (college hoops) than I did on the NFL.
I just wasn't interested.
Got a half-win out of the week with the Philly spot. Now I get to adjust any line this week 7 pts in my favor.
Should have had a better week though, as Play #1 went 3-1.
Play #1 season now at 22-10, 68%. Overs are at 11-5, Unders the same 11-5.
Numbers like that deserve a little more respect, I should be buying them.

Record: 16-8, +$720 (with one, two team teaser open.)

Back with this week's spots if anything qualifies as a play.

Update: This week, we get the same spot we used on 12/13, my oldest system.
And . . . it's a play on Denver again. Ugh.
(Actually, none of these are a play ON the teams we used - Dal, Den, or Phil. What makes them a play is going AGAINST their opponent, that's the team that fits the profile for this situational play. So this week, Buff fits the profile so I have to play AGAINST them.)

As noted in an earlier post (Nov 2):
"I do have one NFL system I use, the oldest one I have in any sport, dates back around 20 years, pops up 3-4 times per season. When it shows up, I make investment buys on it, not small $. The play makes its first appearance this week. The reason I make investment size wagers on it is because it hits better than 67%."

It shows up 3-4 times each year.
It wins approx. 67%.
It's already 3-0 this year.
That makes me cautious this week, I don't want to give back any of the two wins I've gotten from it already (three if I successfully complete the open end of the Philly teaser.)

As I said, I'll tease it, but I'm NOT using the open spot from yesterday's play.
Not buying yet, 6' is the common number, rooting for that hook to be added, gonna need it.

Update, Tue 12/15:
Play #1
Ov in Jax, Tenn

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Not only has the hook not been added to the Denver spot, giving me a +7 to tease to two TD'S, but it's actually dropped off, the common # is now 6.

Before it drops any further I'm buying it today at 6, taking it to +13.

Buys:
Den +13, two team tease, 13/10, second spot open.

 

[RBD]

Recap:
"It shows up 3-4 times each year.
It wins approx. 67%.
It's already 3-0 this year."

The law of averages collected it's due yesterdayas Denver couldn't cover even with the teaser. Not wasting the open end of the Philly teaser I won last week was the right move.

Record: 16-9, + $590.00 for a $100 bettor.

Today, I'm going to close out that Philly teaser and also have at least one other buy, just waiting a little longer to see if the line moves in my favor. Back asap.

Update: For the second part of the open teaser I'm using NO/KC Ov 46'.

 

[RBD]

Buys:
NO/KC Ov 46' second half of open teaser
Jags/Ravens Un 21' second half

 

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with Denver, missed with Balt Un 2nd half when Minshew scored a backdoor TD with a minute and a half left in the game, hit the the KC Over.

Record: 17-10, +$580.00

Play #1 crapped out at 0-2, for the season it's 22-12, Ov 11-5, Un 11-7.
Anyone buying these (and why not at 22-10, 11-5 on Ov and Un) is thinking, "That's incorrect, they went 2-0 this week."' I posted it incorrectly. Both spots were Unders. I didn't catch my error until updating my log book last night.
A nice mistake for anyone buying them, but I have to correct the record here. I use these to make buying decisions and if the data is inaccurate I'm screwing myself.

This week:

Washington is in the "Oldest System I have" spot, which means a play ON Carolina.
Panthers are currently +1. I'll buy it, not sure if I'll do the usual tease or not.
These are 3-1 ATS this year, wins on Dallas, Denver, & Philly and the loss on Denver this past week.

 

[RBD]

Play #1 only has one spot this week, Chi/Jags Under.
The Jags lost in this spot last week due to that last minute Minshew TD.
Play #1 record is 22-12, Ov 11-5, Un 11-7.

I'm going to use a set up play this week.
Both Balt and Mia are in a situation that if they cover ATS this week they will fit my oldest profile, the one that is 3-1 this season, as plays AGAINST next week.
I'm going to use Balt in a teaser with Carolina (using Car for reasons mentioned in the post above) as a setup to getting Balt in that same situation next week.

A two team teaser, +7 @-130, using Balt and Car.

Buying Balt today at -10, down to -3, only needing a FG win over the Giants. That's not asking much, is it?

Waiting to buy the other part as Car has gone from +1 to +2'.
I'm hoping to get that extra 1/2 pt to +3, which I can then take to +10.

By using the 1pm Balt game I can still make a play on the 4pm Panther game if Balt fails me.

Buys:
Balt -3, Car +7, 2 team teaser, +7, 130/110.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit the teaser with wins on Baltimore and Carolina.

Record: 18-10, +$680

As I said in post #1, "I work mainly in college ball" but after last week's win I have enough units banked that I will hit my top two goals:
1 - Don't Lose Money
and
2 - Finish with a profit

I had two games to choose from in what I called "set up" plays: Mia and Balt.
I chose correctly as Mia lost.
One of the factors leading to that choice was my record on plays when I use both teams.
I do better handicapping Baltimore.
I know this because I keep a logbook of my plays and I use that info to make bets.
Most 'cappers know Baltimore's ATS record this season. They likely know how Balt does against the Giants. They know Miami's ATS record, and how they do when playing the Raiders.
BUT . . . do they know their own record ATS when handicapping Miami and Baltimore?
It makes NO sense to know the team's stats, but not your own.
Keep a logbook!!!
End of sermon.

So, the Balt win means they qualify as a play AGAINST spot for my oldest system.
It's now 4-1 this season, wins with Dallas, Denver, Philly and Carolina. The loss was with Denver vs Buff.
This is a 67% play, meaning 4-2 is more likely than 5-1. That math says stay off this week, and keep the units already banked. But what does the spot look like?
I'd have to take Cincy. They're at home, getting 11'.
And if I stick to the norm on these and tease it I can get 18 or 18'.
That's a lot of points. And yet it still would still not get Cincy a win in their first meeting, when Balt whupped them by 24 pts. And that was with Burrows.

If Balt was already locked into a playoff spot I might consider playing this spot, but with the Ravens needing a win to get into the post season this game has "Stay Away" from Cincy written all over it.

Play #1 took a loss last week on an Under, the second week in a row that the Jags lost in this spot (which is why I stayed off it) now it's 22-13, 11-5 Over, 11-8 Under. Hope to get an Over to buy this week as I have nothing else in my sights. I'll add the spots in Play #1 after tonight's game is played and all weekly stats are in.

 

[RBD]

Here are ths spots in Play #1 this week, for anyone who has been using them:
Ov in NYJ/NE 39'
Un in Min/Det 54', LAC/KC 44

Play #1 record: 22-13, 62%; Ov 11-5, 68%, Un 11-8, 57%.

I got the Over I was hoping for, but it's with two team who have no reason to play, their season's are finished. The question that needs to be answered is - What kind of effort are they going to put into a meaningless game? Will I get quitters, or . . . ?

Actually, it won't matter. I was in the frame of mind that there was one more week to go after this Sunday
(I told you I'm not a big fan of the NFL and don't follow too closely.) As this is the last week of the season, I have a situational play I can use. If the NYJ/NE line drops I may try it, but will likely close the regular season with a spot I have used successfully in the past on second half team totals.

Also still have one spot left in my oldest profile play, AGAINST Balt this week, but as noted in the post above, I'll likely sit that one out.

Back on Sunday with any plays I make.

 

[RBD]

Good call on laying off AGAINST Balt in my oldest play as they easily covered the spread.
The call was just playing the percentages.
The spot usually hits approx. 67%.
It was sitting at 4-1. So, 4-2 was more likely than 5-1. That, plus I didn't like the match-up, with Balt needing a W to make the playoffs, and Cincy being generally bad.

I used the same math in the NBA yesterday. I had two plays.
The play was hitting at a decent W %.
The first play lost. 1-1 was more likely than 0-2, so I bought the second game and got back the loss on game 1, just playing the %'s.

I have a play that is only active on the last week of the season, waited for one to pop up yesterday but didn't get one. It's a simple play, a second half team total Under if a team gets shutout in the first half, but no games qualified and I was stuck with nothing to buy and post.
I was hoping for a 2-0 day to close the reg season at 67%, but it ends at 18-10. I'll take that any day.

Play #1 went 1-2, hitting with the Over, missing with both Unders.
Record 23-15, Ov 12-5, Un 11-10.
A solid record, especially on Overs, but I just never got comfortable using these this season, as buy recommendations or in my pocket; not a good call on my part as they were profitable.
No spots fit for Play #1 in the Wild Card round.

Playoffs - I made a couple of buys last night.

TB had four losses, two to NO, one to KC. Wash is not in that class.
The other loss was to a mediocre Rams team, the type of loss that I don't see happening in the post season. I took them down to -1 in a two team teaz at -130, meaning all they have to do is win, that's not asking too much from them, eh?

For the second spot I'll likely use KC, depending on the line and match-up. The Chiefs are winning, but they're not blowing anyone out like they used to. Since their bye week their wins have come by 4, 3, 6, 6, 3, and 3. But Andy Reid is deadly when given extra rest and extra time to game prep.

I also think Pitt's offense will shake off their end-of-season blues and get back in rhythm this week.
I don't like the hook in a playoff game so I bought it off.

Update: 1/6
Adding the second spot for my teaser

Buys:
TB -1 (two team 7 pt teaser -130), Chi/NO Over (wait to buy, it's at 47 and dropping, will get 40 at the very least)
Pitt -3 -125

 

[RBD]

Early buys was the right move on TB and Pit, especially Pit where I bought the hook to -3 as -6 is now the common number.

Adding two more buys.

I prefer Dogs in the Wild Card round but I can't make a case for most of this week's teams,
they seem more puppy than pitbull.

I'm adding N0 -9' and, in a bit of a homer move (I'm a Seahawks fan), Sea -3 (buy the hook.)

New Orleans hits the better mark in every category I rate. That is rare for a playoff game.
The # is high at -9' (and they haven't covered a # like this in their last 5 playoff games dating back to 2017) but it's appropriate for this match up.
I'm buying in before it goes any higher because I sense a blowout. If I'm wrong about the blowout, I can always rely on a late game, behind-on-the-scoreboard Trubisky forcing a pass into a turnover to possibly get me the # I need.

Toss out the fluke L to NYG and Seattle is, as usual, dominant at home (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS), while 4 of 6 Ram losses have come on the road. Yes, much of the HF advantage is due to crowd noise and energy they provide (which will be lacking) but some of it comes from enjoying the comforts of home rather than the hassles of the road.
And, playing "Guess who my QB will be" is an amateur move, and a distraction to your team - and I always look for an edge caused by distractions. To win on the Pro level you need TOTAL focus on the task at hand - the game - not outside nonsense and drama.

Also in my favor - no matter who McVay chooses it will still be either Goff or Wolford, eh?
Goff is injured, but even if he's healthy he's looked shaky and lacking in confidence lately.
And Wolford is woefully inexperienced. Seattle is NOT the place you want to be if you're an inexperienced QB dealing with the pressure of making your first playoff start.


Buys:
TB -1 (two team 7 pt teaser -130), Chi/NO Over (wait to buy, it's at 47 and dropping, will get 40 or < .)
Pitt -3 (bought the hook at -125)
New Orleans -9'
Seattle -3 (bought the hook at -120)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Well that was ugly, 1-3.

Seattle was a homer pick but I would have liked them even if they weren't my favorite team.
No way a one-dimensional team like LAR would beat them, even though that one dimension is a great defense. Only way they lose is if they beat themselves with turnovers, and that's what happened.

And 1-3 is what happens when I don't have one of my systems to rely on, and the only spot that fit a system was the only one that won, the Saints (had a better # in all the categories I rate.)

Playoff record 1-3.

I don't want to give regular season profits back during the playoffs, need to recoup the 2 units and juice lost this weekend, but have to proceed cautiously with only seven games left.

Wild card weekends often go to Dogs, but rested Home Favs take over the next week.
Using a teaser was the right move on TB, as they didn't cover the spread of -9, but in the end it didn't matter because I used NO Over for the second part, the only NFC game that didn't hit 40 or > (four of the 6 games hit 40 or >; bad choice on my part as Chi couldn't score.)
Going back to a teaser this week, and going after the two teams that advanced because their opponents beat themselves with turnovers (LAR & Cleveland.)

Green Bay has an 8 pt differential in T/O's with LAR, so don't expect Rogers to toss a pick six like Wilson did.

As for the KC pick, Andy Reid is deadly with an extra week of rest and prep.
And which of the final 8 teams has the worst pass defense?
Cleveland.
That's NOT a good stat to have entering a game in la Maison de Mahomes.

GB pk/KC -3, two team teaser 7pts, -130

 

[RBD]

Andy Reid with extra rest and prep time . . .


Week one 2020: 34 pts scored

After the bye 2020: 35


Week one 2019: 40

After the bye 2019: 40

First playoff game 2019: 51


Week one 2018: 38

After the bye 2018: 40

First playoff game 2018: 31


That's an avg of 38' pts for Reid and Mahomes in rested/extra prep time spots.


The current number is 32'.

That number is 6 fewer than the avg in these spots.

That number is fewer than the number in all but one of the above (31.)

The number I made for the game is greater than 32'.

You have to go all the way back to Mahome's first playoff game back in 2018 to find a number that is lower than this week's number, and that was only 1' fewer.

And at 262 YPG, Cleveland has the WORST passing defense of the eight remaining teams, ranked 25th in the league, NOT a good stat to have when you're going up against KC.
Reid/Mahomes already put up 37 against them this season, in Cleveland, and the Browns defense gives up an avg of 7 pts more on the road.


I'm looking for well established form in these spots to hold. There are 32' & 33 out there today, they'll be 34 or > by game time, bought the 32' now before it goes higher.


Update, Wed 1/13: Just ran the games through the Play #1 scenario, one play spit out, Cleve/KC Un.
Record on Play #1 reg season was 23-15, Ov 12-5, Un 11-10, there were no plays last week.
On 11/24 the Un was 10-4, so it's on a 1-6 run, hope that continues this week as I used KC team total Over and want to see a lot of points from both teams (the more Cleve scores the more KC has to score to beat them, so though my play is KC Over I root for Cleve scores, too. If the opponent doesn't score, like Chi last week, the other team will not be as aggressive late in the game.)


Buys:
GB Pk/KC -3, two team teaser 7pts, -130
KC Over 32' -120 (2 unit play)

 

[RBD]

Doing my daily check of the numbers and I see that the Balt/Buff game fits the New Play Un situation.

The "New Play" is a spot I used in college with success but didn't really track throughout the NFL season because for the 2-3 weeks I did chart it it came out at .500, so, no value.
It fit Sea Ov last week and won, so I thought I'd post this week's spot in case anyone is looking for an additional angle on the game.
And just a heads up, if KC rises another 1' to 58' or > it qualifies as an Over in the New Play.

Update Friday, Jan 15: Bills' game total dropped everywhere, from 50 to 49', no longer qualifies as an Under, has to be at 50 or >.


Buys:
GB Pk/KC -3, two team teaser 7pts, -130
KC Over 32' -120 (2 unit play)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split; hit with the teaser, lost the team total.

I've recommended well over 100 buys in various sports here, not one was a 2 unit play.
I'm a BIG proponent of using the same $ size for your base unit and not varying between ridiculous things like 1*, 5*, 20 * and 100 * stuff you see some bettors do.
I finally used one this weekend with KC's team total.
I was at the right pace with 19 pts scored at the half. Then Mahomes got KO'd and changed the dynamics of the game and I was lucky to get out with the teaser intact instead of an 0-2 day.

Playoff record:
2-4, and an extra unit lost due to the 2 unit play.

Play #1 had one spot active, Un in KC and it won.
This week, TB/GB Un fits (12-10 this season, 1-0 in the playoffs.)

With only three games left I may not get another play.
I finished the reg season at 18-10, 64%, may have to surrender the lost playoff units from my reg season bank. Will post up if I buy anything.