NFL Buys for 2020

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with the KC teaz, hit with the Az team total (Thank you, Zeke.)
Record: 10-7

Play #1 is 9-5, Ov 3-1, Un 6-4.

Play #2 is 4-8, Favs 4-6, Dogs 0-2; good fade material.

This week's spots...
Play #1:
Sea/Az Ov 55/56
KC/Den Ov 49'/47/46'
GB/Hou Un 56/57
Jags/LAC Ov 48/49
Chi/LAR Ov 47/45

Play #2:
NO -7'
GB -3'

One buy for now.
I trust LAC and young Herbert to get me 30+, especially off a bye.
I do not trust Minshew and the Jags to get me the 20 I need from them to get Over 49,
(and I trust Glennon even less, if they pull Minshew.)
Opening a new teaser, Jags/LAC Ov 43, 11/10.
And no way I don't get at least 25 pts from both Sea and Az, so for the 2nd part of the teaz Sea/Az Ov 50.

If I get the # I want, I'll be adding Az team total Over, too. Will post if I buy it after pussy books finally get around to putting up their number. (Total is 56. Divide by 2 = 28; subtract half the 3' spread for the dog and you get 26'; they'll probably hang a higher #, but if I get 26' I'll be all over it.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit my only play, the LAC Ov/Sea Ov teaser.

Didn't make it back in to post the buy on the other spot I recommended - "I'll be adding Az tm total Over, too. Will post if I buy it after pussy books get around to putting up their number, if I get 26' I'll be all over it."
The game total dropped so they hung a team total of 25'.
Won't count here but I hope some of you saw it and nailed it, too.

Record 10-6.

In the first post in this thread I mentioned I was going to apply what works for me in college to the NFL this year. It's been shite in college, hovering around .500, but it's been gold in the NFL.
Yesterday, Play #1 went 4-0 (Chi/LAR play tonight), was 9-5 going into play yesterday, Ov 3-1, Un 6-4,
now at 13-5, Ov 6-1, Un 7-4.

Play #2 split at 1-1, 5-9 now, Fav 5-7. Dogs 0-2, decent fade material but not needed as long as Play #1 mainains its pace.

Back with next week's buys and plays after I finish 'capping.

 

[Coach Woody]

Thanks for the plays RBD

Keep them rolling

 

[RBD]

I'll try Coach, but unfortunately I don't have a lot to choose from this week, only two games fit Play #1.

After the loss with LAR/Chi Ov last night, Play #1 sits at 13-6, Ov 6-2, Un 7-4.
(Despite it being 6-1 going into last night's spot, I didn't buy it. Why not? Chicago's offense. It's nice when your Spidey sense says, "Ignore the record, don't bet this one!" and it turns out to be correct.

This week's spots for Play #1:
Min/GB Ov 54'
Tenn/Cinn Un 54'

No buys yet.

Thursday update:
Rookie fish Tua meets Mr. Donald this week, and I don't think the extra prep time off a bye is going to be much help to the guppie. Still, I want that hook off the -3' Rams on the road off a short week.
I can either buy it off at heavy juice, 13/10, or spend 12/10 and tease them to +3 in a 6' two-teamer.
I'll take them plus the FG and look for a good spot to close out the two-teamer.

Sunday morning update: For the second part of the teaser I used Tenn/Cin OV 42'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with the morning teaser, hit with the total in Cincinnati but missed with the Rams +3 when Goff look like the new fish, not Tua.

Add:
Sea +3 -120 second half.

If the entire first half didn't convince me what to bet in the second half, SF's TWO opportunities to run their two minute offense at the end of the first half certainly did.

In the first opportunity they were inept,
in the second they were quitters.

With Seattle leading, SF is not going to be able to lean on the run game, they're going to have to turn to garropolo, and when they do, they're fucked.
garrapolo sucks, the only thing worse than his decision making is his passes. I'll take the Hawks plus the points.

Update: garrapolo leads the Niners to a grand total of - 1 yard in the third quarter before he retired to the locker room before the start of the fourth.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got back the morning teaser L with an easy W on Seattle second half/garrapolo sucks play.
Record 11-7.

From post #1 in this thread: "I do have one NFL system I use, the oldest one I have in any sport, dates back around 20 years, pops up 3-4 times per season. When it shows up, I make investment buys on it, not small $."

The play makes its first appearance this week.
The reason I make investment size wagers on it is because it hits better than 67%.
But . . .
I don't care what the line is when they finally get around to putting it up, after watching them last night it won't be enough pts unless Dak pulls a Lazarus.
I will not make an investment size wager on it.


Tuesday update: Today's question for you/us - who's worse - the Jets or Cowboys?

Jets have by far the worst O in the league, just 94 pts scored in their 0-8 record.

Cowboys have two wins but the worst D by far, giving up a league high 266 pts, or 33 ppg.

True, the Jets are burdened with Gase, but Jerry Jones has quickly come to regret his decision to hire a guy who doesn't understand such game basics as clock management and what to do with his timeouts.

Last week, the 6-1 Chiefs were laying 19' at NYJ,
and the 1-6 Giants were getting 12' at home from the 5-2 Bucs.
What would you make the 7-0 Steelers at 2-6 Dallas?

After watching the Cowboys at Philly Monday night - the NCAA level execution overall, and the Pop Warner level play calling on offense - how many points would it take before you would buy Dallas?

It shouldn't be anywhere near as high as the winless Jets +19', but the first line I see is 9' ??!!
Last night, the 1-6 Giants were getting 12' at home from the 5-2 Bucs.
Now the 2-6 Cowboys are only getting 9' from the 7-0 Steelers?

I think this book believes Dalton will be back under center.
I don't think it makes much of a difference.

Maybe they didn't notice Dallas scored a whopping 13 pts in his two starts, including a paltry 10 pts vs an Az team that gives up > 20 pts per game. In that contest, Dalton threw 54 passes, for 1 TD and 2 INT's against an avg pass D. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in passing yds allowed, has a much better passing D, ranked 6th, AND is atop the league for interceptions. The Pitt secondary will feast on Dalton if the Cowboys fall behind (likely) and have to rely on Dalton's arm.
Oh, by the way, which team leads the league in sacks?
Yes. Pittsburgh.

Based on their recent QB play, the ONLY chance Dallas has is to run the ball with Zeke, employ smart clock management, and limit possessions for Ben and his potent offense (ranked #3 at 30 PPG.)
The only problem with that is - Pitt is rated #5 in run defense, giving up just 96 rushing yds per game.

Because of that, I think the line has to be higher than two scores, not the -9' I see.
I'd make it 12'. Yes, it's Pitt's third straight game on the road, but I think -9' is too low for balanced action.

I have to buy Dallas, regardless of the number, for reasons explained above.
But it will be a standard TV-size wager, not the usual investment size bet I make on this system, because Dallas is that bad, and McCarthy is clueless.
Hopefully, when most books hang their # it'll be closer to the one I made, rather than the lone 9' I see.

 

[Coach Woody]

My book has it at-13.5

I am guessing its a buy so I am game will dive in head first.

I agree with you on the Cowboys.....THEY ARE SO BAD

Only thing I hate is Pitt could be a let down with playing such a bad team...I have seen that way to many times.

 

[RBD]

Coach, I'm buying it, but I'll wait to see if it goes to -14.
If I see it starting to go the other way, I'll grab the 13' and probably buy the hook to get it to two TD'S - Dallas is going to need every bit of it.

We have two possibilities for a W:

1 - With Cincy on deck we can't hope for any of the look-ahead angle, but maybe Pit will slack off knowing they're playing a lousy team. They put out a minimum effort, just enough to win but not in blowout fashion.

2 - Pit gets a three score lead going into the fourth quarter, and pulls their starters, giving us a chance at a back door.

My number, -12', was only off by 1 pt; ten years of making odds in Vegas comes in handy, knew that 9' was way too low.

Though taking Dallas, even with 13', is not very appetizing, I'll tell you about another game in this system that had me feeling like I do about this one.
It was 1991, when the Bears still had a ferocious D.
Chi was 9-2 SU when Miami came to town. The line opened Chi -7 and went to -8.
Chi was giving up only 10 PPG, and I remember thinking, "Getting 7 pts isn't enough, Miami will be lucky if they score 7 pts the entire game.
So, despite the W % of the system, I didn't take the Fish.
Final score: Mia 16 Chi 13.
The Dolphins won SU!

So, regardless of the situation, or how bad a particular game looks, when this system pops up I tend to play it. (Though I stayed off it LY when SF faced Balt. And yez, SF covered. So . . . I'm taking Dallas, no matter how bad they look.)

 

[RBD]

Play #1:
NE/NYJ Ov
NO/TB Un
Record on these is 14-6; Ov 6-2, Un 8-4.
(Note - last week, both games could have been a W or L depending on when you bought them. If I buy a game, it gets graded at the # I bought it at. If not, I try to use the lines that seem to be avail for most of the week. Gave Min/GB a push, Tenn/Cin a W.)

In the posts above I explain why I have to take Dallas this week.
It's a system I've used successfully for years, but I don't have to go through the data to know that it's highly unlikely that ANY of the previous spots had a 3rd string QB as a starter.

Here's what I'm going to do: buy a game to use as a teaser, using the second half to get Dal to +21.
After looking at the card, and checking some situational plays, here's what I come up with . . .

No way Denver comes off that come-from-behind at home win vs the Chargers and goes on the road to beat Atlanta, right?
That was more of a typical Charger "Come from ahead to lose" situation than a valiant effort by the Elways.

True, the Falcons are a mess, BUT they've won two of their last three, with the lone loss coming by one pt in the last second of the Detroit game.

Yes, they're 0-4 at home but I say "To hell with the Krusty the Clown 'They're due' factor jinx!"

Krusty's Accountant:
"Let me get this straight. You took all the money you made franchising your name and bet it AGAINST the Harlem Globetrotters?"

Krusty: "I thought the Generals were due!"

I think Atlanta is due to get a W at home.
And with Vegas, N. Orleans and Tampa Bay left on their schedule, THIS is the best spot to get it.
Do I like them enough to get their first home win laying 4 pts?
Hell no.
So . . .
ATL+3/Dal +21 (13/10)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Winner.

Best/oldest system I have.

Didn't even need the extra pts from the teaz.

Atlanta did get their first home win, despite trying to lose by giving up 21 pts in the 4th quarter.
And two TD dog Dallas almost pulled off a SU win.

Hope to see that system play at least 2-3 more times before the season ends.

Record: 12-7

In addition to my best system coming through, Play #1 got another winner on NO/TB Un.
Play #1 is now 15-6, 71%, with tonight's game still open.
Overs are 6-2, 75%, Unders 9-4, 69%.

Will buy tonight's spot if I get the # I want.
Will post if I do.

Update: I really want to ride with Play #1 tonight, but I just can't do it.
The current # is 42, up from 40'/41/41'.
Jets pts scored each of their last four: 10, 0, 10, 9.
And NE has scored > 12 in only one of their last four.
Those are two ugly offenses.
To go Over 42 it'll likely take both of them to exceed their norms as of late, and that's asking for a bit much.
With stats like that, I can't recommend this spot as a buy,
I don't even think I'll have it in my pocket for some action while watching tonight.

I'm on a nice run in college and pro, and with games every night this week (ya gotta love MACtion) I'll look for a better spot than this one to start the new week. Despite the 6-2 record on Overs in Play #1, I'll pass on posting a buy on this spot.

Good luck to the Mad Jackers with whatever you play tonight.

 

[RBD]

I guess it's time to put a little faith into my college-system-converted-to-the-NFL.
With the W on the Over in NE/NYJ last night, Play #1 is now 16-6; 7-2 Ov, 9-4 Un.

I haven't used them much because it's new, and I talked myself off of last night's game despite the 6-2 record.

I'm a numbers guy, I put a lot of time and work into them each week. But handicapping is only half the fun, it's wasted time if I don't take advantage of what I find and bank some winners.
So, it's time to trust the numbers.

That said, I was hoping there would be a few spots active this week but unfortunately there's only one:
Jax/GB Un 53'/53/52'

GB has appeared in this system three times this season, twice in Unders, once in an Over.
10/18, Under vs TB - Winner
10/25, Under vs Houston - Winner
11/1, Over vs Minn - Push (could've been a W or L depending on when you bought it and what # you got.)

Jags have been in one spot, 10/25, Over vs Hou - Winner

Already missed out on the best #, 53'.
But, like I said, I'm buying these spots so before it drops any more I bought it at 52'.

Not crazy about that number.
GB avg's 31 PPG at home, and Luton looked pretty good in his first start last week.
This will be the rookie QB's first road game, I'd feel better about the number if he was playing in front of a stadium full of screaming Packer fans, but the city announced no fans in the stands again this week.

Maybe we'll get some help from the weather?
A freezing cold game, heavy winds, or some early snow wouldn't hurt.
Back in a minute, off to the weather channel.

Update: In the time between when I started writing this post, and went off to check the weather report, most 52' are gone, 52 is the common number across the board now.
So, in fairness, that is the number I will use here. Stations properties still have 52' up, but a pick is worthless if I post a # most people can't get.

I checked the weather - always important when you're thinking of buying a total, ESPECIALLY in places like GB and Minnesota.

(Minn??!! Just checking to see if you're paying attention.)

Unfortunately, it won't be freezing, but there may be a little rain, and winds look to be 20 MPH or more, so that may help. Hoping that with a rookie QB in his first RD game, HC Marrone will lean on the run game a little more than usual, and although most people think "pass-happy" when they think of Rodgers and GB, they're actually pretty balanced this year.

Buys:
Jax/GB Un 52

 

[Speed]

Rain and 50...:00hour

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Speed.
And good luck to you with your plays this week.

 

[RBD]

Recap - Got a W with Jags/GB Un.

Doing a mid-week early buy at 52 saved a full 5 points as the game closed at 47.
In the end, didn't need the extra pts as the game landed on 44, but it's always good to know the right call was made on when to buy, and though the pts weren't needed it was good to know while watching the game that even an additional late TD couldn't hurt me.

Record: 13-7.

I'm one game away from the Grail I seek, %-wise, 67%.
And I have a play this week, before I even start my 'capping to see if there's anything I can use in Play #1, which, after the GB win is now at 17-6, Ov 7-2, Un 10-4.

I watched Mia with a special interest yesterday, because if they won it set up Denver to be in the same spot I used Dallas in on 11/8.
The Fish didn't stink, beating the Chargers 29-21, laying 2 pts.
So, I have a play on the Elways this week.

Problem is, like that Dallas spot, the # is light, a few pts fewer than what I made it with Drew "4 INT's yesterday" Lock at the helm (not to mention hitting just 23 of 47 passes.)

And I can't count on any slack from the second place Dolphins,
not after first place Buffalo's loss yesterday, and the third place Pats win last night.

But wait! Maybe Miami has NE or Buff on the schedule the following week, and I can get a possible look-ahead edge! A quick check of the schedule, and . . . the Jets. Ugh.

Den +3 means they have to win SU or stay close, which is asking a bit much from a team that has only won one of four at home this season (and that game by just one pt, in a miracle come-from-behind, last second win vs LAC, the AFC's version of the no-lead-is-ever-safe Detroit Lions.)

The Bronco's three home losses are by an avg of 15 pts, so even teasing them up to 10 is not very appetizing, but, on paper, Dallas looked like crap vs Pitt, too, and that worked out okay, so I'll do what I did then - tease it.

Buys:
Den +10, second spot open.

Update - Denver line was up at +3, I went to buy the teaser but the line has been taken down.
Drew Lock is questionable after taking a beating yesterday (technically, Drew Lock is questionable even when he's healthy.) He'll likely play, and the # will go back up at +3. I already posted it so I'll stick with it as a play here, but anyone thinking of buying it should wait because if Lock's out that means Rypien is in and the line will climb.

 

[RBD]

Update:
For the first time this season nothing fits for Play #1.
Ran the numbers twice, just to be sure.

Disappointing, as it's been doing well and I was hoping to use something from it as the other half of my teaser with Denver.

As for Denver, Drew Lock is still listed as questionable,
the line is holding at +3' or +3 -120, not nearly as high as it should be with this match-up.

Back with any buys I add.

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD,

I was just listening to local radio and they said Lock didn't practice again today....they seem to think it will be Ripen starting Sunday..... Nothing confirmed yet....but thought I would let you know.

 

[TheNuts]

NFL Buys for 2020

Accidental post...sorry

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD


Does Denver still hit that play???


I can boost a Denver win to+420 tonight

 

[RBD]

Yes, Coach, it still fits.
Unlike the New Play I've been posting in the college thread, line changes from the books or the numbers that I make on a game have no effect. This is a play based on how any team performs ATS in this particular situation, regardless of lines or injuries.

Looking at the rest of the card again to see if I can come up with something to play, other than the one buy already posted.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with the first half of a teaser, using Denver.
And, just like the first time this system popped up this year, I teased it but didn't need to.
I'm going to be extra careful selecting a spot for the second part of this tease, don't want to waste a unit I should have banked.

Record: 14-8, +$520.00

Play #1: (no plays qualified last week; record 17-6, Ov 7-2, Un 10-4.)

Chi/GB Ov
SF/LAR Ov

Got two to choose from in a play with a great record at 7-2,
but each game has a team that scored just 13 pts in their last game. Ugh.
Off a bye might help, or is that just wishful thinking?

No buys yet.