Outrights:
(1) JimFuryk(16/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
(2) Davis Love(20/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
(3) Tiger Woods(+225) To Win for 1* @ Bet365
- - Stan's take on Furyk that he "is now a very strong contender whenever he tees it up" is an economical use of words that has been as accurate as a Furyk tee shot. Oak Hill clearly places the greatest premium on driving of any course this year, and while Mr. Furyk is so comfortably wearing the mantel of U.S. Open Champion and is freed of any nagging pressure that comes from wanting too hard to do well (but with the noteworthy twist of a missed cut at Sandwich), it seems like it is still very much his time . . . After Royal St. George's, I expected Davis Love to be steamed and steeled for the PGA, and I agree with Stan's proposition that "he is a likely champion", but this play bugged me to no end when I was forced to make it last Friday after DLIII popped the cork early on some fine vintage. One consolation is that I heard Love discuss on Sunday how he had a game plan to use The International as preparation for the PGA by using lots of 3 woods and long irons off the tees to emphasize hitting fairways and not be lured into a bombs away mentality. On the other hand, while it was not as straining as your typical wire-to-wire win, it was obviously a very emotional win . . . I always play Tiger to Win at a major championship, usually for the shortest odds I can play, as my twisted way of trying to insure against just such an outcome (I have been unwavering in liking and touting The Striped One since before he won his first U.S.G.A. Junior title, but I wouldn't hope to see Arnie win a U.S. Open by 15 shots or see any brash youngster win a Grand Slam, Tigerwise or otherwise). Looking back, I feel I've got full value for the money I've spent this year, as it is hugely surprising to me that T-4 in the British Open is Tiger Wood's best effort in a major this year. You can analyze Tiger's year and this tournament any way you want, but it will defy my understanding of the order of things if Woods is not primed to contend from start to finish this week.
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Prior to the U.S. Open, I posted Justin Leonard(50/1) as my top selection, . Thereafter, Stan posted a play on Leonard(22/1) as Top U.S. player without Woods, which was an option I had not even considered, but I knew almost immediately I would have preferred having played Leonard in that fashion and at that price (although neither approach panned out after a Sunday 75 took Leonard back to T-20). Regardless, I am now fascinated by these specialty markets in the major championships, as they seem to offer some really solid opportunities if your horse goes well, without an unmanageable risk of being aced out by who knows who in a full field. I like.
Top U.S. Player w/out Woods:
(1) Charles Howell(33/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
I think the time and place are right for Charles to take another sure step on the road to challenging for the biggest titles on the best courses. I have no doubt he already has the all around game for these examinations if properly touched or ignited by the moment, and I know he is diligent and productive and constantly striving to improve the development and maturity of his swing and master the full range of his game. Although he is light on experience over the weekend, I am absolutely sure he is in his element at these championships. A solid season that is lacking a defining moment is very much due a dividend. I look at his pairing and I like the chances that that there will be some good golf played in that group and the fact that he goes off in the morning on the first day. Lastly, I strongly suspect the name of Ben Curtis has done nothing to discourage the ambitions and expectations of a growing posse of young guns. (One more thing: This article today fits my thinking that Charles is ready without it causing some additional pressure that would distract from his performance:
http://augustachronicle.com/stories/081303/mic_MPS-5458.000.shtml) . . . . While I have several dollars on the 100/1 that is available for an outright win, I prefer looking to cash a ticket on Howell in this market. And with so much strength at the top of this market, and with plays already on Love and Furyk, it's not likely I'll go any deeper than this, although I'm still considering some proper way to feature Chris DiMarco, and I'm being tempted by a longshot play on Jeff Maggert at 100/1 in this market, since the setup is like a U.S. Open without the blue blazers.
Top European Player:
(1) Phillip Price(20/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Foremost perhaps, I think the dogs at the top of this market have a lot of fleas (not that the dog I'm backing is free of the same thing). I think the time is right as right can be for Price.
Top Rest of World :
I haven't found anything I couldn't resist in this market, which is a good thing if I plan on further exposure by jumping in with one or more outright plays in-running after the championship starts to take shape.
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Other angles I've cooked up . . . I think Sergio came away from Castle Pines looking discombobulated, and Darren Clarke may be the poster boy for some of the older boys demonstrating that the mile high experience in Colorado was less than ideal preparation (I'm almost sure Castle Pines is a typical modern course that was not designed with walking in mind) . . . Maybe Greg Norman's withdrawal saved his back for a big opening salvo . . . Thomas Bjorn can't have a full 72 holes left in his empty tank . . . And Ian Poulter can't chip and pitch and blast his away around these green sites well enough to do any serious damage, even if he is wearing blinders and manages for a while to continue striping his shots and putting the eyes out. (And an aside: I came across this article this week and it was LOL all the way:
http://sport.guardian.co.uk/golf/story/0,10069,1016726,00.html Golf needs wings to stay fresh and healthy, but I hope the game never gets too far removed from the roots that constitute it's enduring appeal.)
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All right, I've still got a few minutes, so here is the deal on why I am so peeved about Davis Love:
Before the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond, I noted in a post that there were a couple of nameless players having career years that I was eyeing to make a mark at Sandwich the following week, and that I gave full deliberations to wagering on them a week in advance in case they pop early, but that I was passing because of their poor course form. The players were Brian Davis and Bradley Dredge, and I think both were at 50/1. Sure enough, despite a lack of course form, Dredge went T-10 and Davis T-20, and in tough conditions they didn't post a single round over par.
If you had asked me last week who I liked at Oak Hill, my answer would have been Davis Love. There is no question he is not the same "something wrong in his head" player he was coming into the year, and after the distractions of mid-year, he reconnected on a golfing trip through Great Britain (which I wish I had known about ahead of the championship), and he was back on track in a big way when his next a big moment arrived at Sandwich (although he clearly stumbled about over the weekend like the DLIII of old). And here's the point: With Love's last big opportunity to define his season in the PGA on the horizon, and with a lead-in at a course that suited him perfectly, I didn't immediately or even at the last moment recognize his potential for "popping early". While I very easily could have had a Poulter/Love parlay last week, instead I was Big on Poulter/Garcia (and small on Poulter/Lowery), and now I'm left with tablescraps on Love in a situation that has lost a good bit of its appeal. In fact, I was too pissed to even care about getting in an outright wager on Friday morning for the International when the handwriting was plainly on the wall.
While my approaches for handicapping golf are evolving all the time, and I expect all manner of bad beats once the strokes are being counted, I am getting sick and tired of my own stupidity and neglect in recognizing quite a number of engraved invitations for some serious runs for the money. And it really peeves when I am digging hard for some plays and not just going through the motions.
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Matchups (Tournament) for 1* each:
I have 3 Ball matches coming out of my ears that appeal and that I am likely to play, but I can't find one 72 hole matchup that I recognized as soon as I saw it, so I'm still sifting through the possibilities. In fact, I'm fairly disappointed in the lack of matchups and propositions that are generally available.
GL
