Big Al
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over Denver, as the Nuggets are a poor traveler when they take on a division rival after playing at home in Denver the previous night. And when priced from -1 to +8 points, Denver is a dismal 1-14 ATS in this role since 1991. The Jazz are a dominant 424-349 ATS at home since 1991, and have won 17 straight home games (going 12-5 ATS) since falling to Boston on December 29. And within Utah's 424-349 home set, the Jazz are a solid 45-19 ATS when playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins if the line is 10 points or less. Take Utah.
At 12 Noon, on CBS, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas minus the points over Louisville. Earlier this year, we played on the Cardinals at home vs. the Hoyas, and Louisville, though it trailed 31-23 at half-time, rewarded us with a comeback eight-point win and cover. Now, we'll fade Rick Pitino's crew, as Big East home favorites of -2 or more points, off back-to-back wins, are an awesome 24-5 ATS since 1991 vs. conference foes off a win. And if our home fave lost its earlier meeting by 10 or less points, then our 24-5 system zooms to an almost-perfect 18-1 ATS. Look for Georgetown to not falter down the stretch like it did in the season's first meeting. Lay the points.
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Tennessee State. The Tigers are seeded 6th, but have advanced to the Finals on the heels of an upset win over Murray State last night. And that was the third straight upset win by Tennessee State, as the Tigers also won at Morehead State as a 2-point dog on Tuesday, and as a 5.5-point dog at Eastern Kentucky last Saturday. Overall, this will be the fifth straight game the Tigers have played away from home, and teams off three dog wins are poor bets when not playing at home, if they are NOT getting 15 points, and they won their last game by more than three points. These teams are a dismal 15-53 ATS since 1991. Tennessee State is a poor 22-33 ATS off a win since 2001, and hasn't played in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship game since 1998. Austin Peay, though, has a lot of experience, as it has reached the Title Game in four of the previous five seasons (though it has lost its last three trips). But I expect the Governors to get the job done this time, as they have always performed well when favored (57-39 ATS) as opposed to being an underdog (33-49), and when they're favored over a team off back-to-back wins, they a super 14-5 ATS since 1991. Take the Governors. OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR.
At 4:30 pm, on ESPN-U, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Valparaiso. The Horizon League stacks its tourney odds in favor of the top two seeds, as it gives them a bye into the semi-finals. So, Cleveland State has a huge advantage over Valpo this afternoon, since the Vikings haven't played in a week after defeating Youngstown 65-58 last Saturday, while Valparaiso had a tough game last night vs. Wright State. Not surprisingly, the Top 2 seeds have done very well in this Tourney format the last four seasons, going 6-2 ATS in the Semi-Final round (including 6-1 as a favorite). After stints at Kent State and Rutgers, coach Gary Waters has really turned Cleveland State's program around. Waters brought in 10 new players this season, and also had all five starters back from last year, so the Vikings are primed to snap their post-season seven-game losing streak today, and advance to the Horizon League Championship game for the first time. I have a super 31-5 ATS tourney system that fades certain teams off an upset win (Valpo upset Wright State as a 1-point dog for its sixth straight win), and it's also worth noting that underdogs off three or more wins are a poor 21-35 ATS in the semi-final round of conference tourneys. Cleveland State won both meetings vs. Valpo this year, and I look for a clean sweep this afternoon. Horizon League Tourney Game of the Year on Cleveland State.
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over Denver, as the Nuggets are a poor traveler when they take on a division rival after playing at home in Denver the previous night. And when priced from -1 to +8 points, Denver is a dismal 1-14 ATS in this role since 1991. The Jazz are a dominant 424-349 ATS at home since 1991, and have won 17 straight home games (going 12-5 ATS) since falling to Boston on December 29. And within Utah's 424-349 home set, the Jazz are a solid 45-19 ATS when playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins if the line is 10 points or less. Take Utah.
At 12 Noon, on CBS, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas minus the points over Louisville. Earlier this year, we played on the Cardinals at home vs. the Hoyas, and Louisville, though it trailed 31-23 at half-time, rewarded us with a comeback eight-point win and cover. Now, we'll fade Rick Pitino's crew, as Big East home favorites of -2 or more points, off back-to-back wins, are an awesome 24-5 ATS since 1991 vs. conference foes off a win. And if our home fave lost its earlier meeting by 10 or less points, then our 24-5 system zooms to an almost-perfect 18-1 ATS. Look for Georgetown to not falter down the stretch like it did in the season's first meeting. Lay the points.
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Tennessee State. The Tigers are seeded 6th, but have advanced to the Finals on the heels of an upset win over Murray State last night. And that was the third straight upset win by Tennessee State, as the Tigers also won at Morehead State as a 2-point dog on Tuesday, and as a 5.5-point dog at Eastern Kentucky last Saturday. Overall, this will be the fifth straight game the Tigers have played away from home, and teams off three dog wins are poor bets when not playing at home, if they are NOT getting 15 points, and they won their last game by more than three points. These teams are a dismal 15-53 ATS since 1991. Tennessee State is a poor 22-33 ATS off a win since 2001, and hasn't played in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship game since 1998. Austin Peay, though, has a lot of experience, as it has reached the Title Game in four of the previous five seasons (though it has lost its last three trips). But I expect the Governors to get the job done this time, as they have always performed well when favored (57-39 ATS) as opposed to being an underdog (33-49), and when they're favored over a team off back-to-back wins, they a super 14-5 ATS since 1991. Take the Governors. OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR.
At 4:30 pm, on ESPN-U, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Valparaiso. The Horizon League stacks its tourney odds in favor of the top two seeds, as it gives them a bye into the semi-finals. So, Cleveland State has a huge advantage over Valpo this afternoon, since the Vikings haven't played in a week after defeating Youngstown 65-58 last Saturday, while Valparaiso had a tough game last night vs. Wright State. Not surprisingly, the Top 2 seeds have done very well in this Tourney format the last four seasons, going 6-2 ATS in the Semi-Final round (including 6-1 as a favorite). After stints at Kent State and Rutgers, coach Gary Waters has really turned Cleveland State's program around. Waters brought in 10 new players this season, and also had all five starters back from last year, so the Vikings are primed to snap their post-season seven-game losing streak today, and advance to the Horizon League Championship game for the first time. I have a super 31-5 ATS tourney system that fades certain teams off an upset win (Valpo upset Wright State as a 1-point dog for its sixth straight win), and it's also worth noting that underdogs off three or more wins are a poor 21-35 ATS in the semi-final round of conference tourneys. Cleveland State won both meetings vs. Valpo this year, and I look for a clean sweep this afternoon. Horizon League Tourney Game of the Year on Cleveland State.
