Saturday Service Plays 4/12/08
- Thread starter the duke
- Start date
Larry Ness
Everyone (me included) keeps waiting for those Colorado bats to 'wake up.' Maybe they never will? The Rockies led the NL with a .280 team BA last year and scored 860 runs (only the Phillies scored more in the NL). However, through 10 games of the '08 season, the Rockies are hitting just .225 and have scored just 30 runs (only the Giants have scored less with 27, in all of MLB!). The Rockies are 4-6 overall, which includes an 0-4 mark against the D'backs (who they swept in LY's NLCS). After last night's 8-2 loss, the Rockies have been outscored 28-7 and ouhit 47-23 by the D'backs in the four games. Why should anything change this afternoon. Lefty Franklin Morales goes for the Rockies and he did pitch well last Sunday against Arizona, going six innings while allowing just two hits and no runs (Rockies blew a 1-0 9th-inning lead and lost in 10 innings, 5-2). However, we know little about Morales, who made his ML debut last August for the Rockies and was a big part of the team's strong finish. He's got a tough assignment here, facing an Arizona team which is red-hot, entering this game on a seven-game winning streak. The D'backs are 8-2 overall and 4-0 at home. Success at home is something the team had a lot of last year, going 50-31 at Chase Field (plus-$1,326). What's been different so far this year, is that Arizona is not only getting good pitching (2.53 ERA is No. 1 in MLB to-date) but good hitting as well. Now that's new! Despite winning the NL West in 2007, the D'backs hit an NL-low .250 (ranked 29 of 30 teams in MLB), while scoring only 712 runs (also 29th). However, so far in 2008, the D'backs are batting .277 (3rd-best in MLB!) and have scored a ML-high 62 runs. Getting the starting nod is Dan Haren, who Arizona acquired in the off-season (from Oakland) for a slew of prospects (I think it was six?). He was a "star in waiting" for the A's, going 43-34 with a 3,62 ERA these past three years and LY started the All Star game for the AL. He struggled somewhat in the second half and despite a 15-9 record (3.07), the A's were just 19-15 in his starts. They were however, 11-6 in his home starts, where he posted a very good 2.82 ERA. He was not overpowering in his Arizona debut (4/2 at Cincy), going six innings while allowing four hits and three ERs (Az lost 6-5). However, in his home debut last Monday, he went six innings and allowed just one ER in a 9-3 win over the Dodgers. I had him in that game and will back him again here, as I believe he's the "real deal" and the D'backs on "hitting on all cylinders." Meanwhile, the Rockies are "stuck in neutral."
TV Game of the Week 15* Az D'backs.
This total is too low! Ian Snell is considered Pittsburgh's best pitcher (and he probably is) but I believe he's a little overrated. He's made 32 starts in each of the last two seasons, going 23-23 overall with an ERA of 4.23 (the Pirates are 34-30 in his starts). He's allowed more hits (407) than innings pitched (394) in the last two years and in '06, his home ERA was 5.60 (it was 3.89 LY). He opened '08 with a mediocre start at Atlanta (6 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) and then pitched very well at Florida (6 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER with a 10-0 ratio). However, he's had little luck against the Reds, posting a 5.32 ERA in seven career starts. Last year, he pitched very well against Cincy the first time he met them but then in three more starts against them in '07, allowed 25 hits and 16 ERs in 17.1 innings (8.31 ERA). Bronson Arroyo gets the start for Cincy. He won 14 games for the Red Sox in '05 and then 14 for Cincy in his first season with the club in '06. However, he went 9-15 with a 4.23 ERA for the Reds last year, allowing 232 hits in 210.2 innings. Of bigger concern was his propensity to allow HRs, as he followed an '06 season in which he allowed 31, by allowing 28 last year. He's made two starts this year (both at home) and has allowed 13 hits and nine runs (seven earned) in 10.2 innings (5.91 ERA). And in case you were wondering, he's allowed five HRs, four in his last outing alone! Now he makes his first road start of the year and let me point out that the Reds went 3-15 in his road starts in '07! Cincy owns a team ERA of 3.02 in '08 but Arroyo has not "helped the cause." These pitchers are getting "way too much respect" with an opening total of 8 1/2.
Spectacular Saturday Total on Cin/Pit Over
Everyone (me included) keeps waiting for those Colorado bats to 'wake up.' Maybe they never will? The Rockies led the NL with a .280 team BA last year and scored 860 runs (only the Phillies scored more in the NL). However, through 10 games of the '08 season, the Rockies are hitting just .225 and have scored just 30 runs (only the Giants have scored less with 27, in all of MLB!). The Rockies are 4-6 overall, which includes an 0-4 mark against the D'backs (who they swept in LY's NLCS). After last night's 8-2 loss, the Rockies have been outscored 28-7 and ouhit 47-23 by the D'backs in the four games. Why should anything change this afternoon. Lefty Franklin Morales goes for the Rockies and he did pitch well last Sunday against Arizona, going six innings while allowing just two hits and no runs (Rockies blew a 1-0 9th-inning lead and lost in 10 innings, 5-2). However, we know little about Morales, who made his ML debut last August for the Rockies and was a big part of the team's strong finish. He's got a tough assignment here, facing an Arizona team which is red-hot, entering this game on a seven-game winning streak. The D'backs are 8-2 overall and 4-0 at home. Success at home is something the team had a lot of last year, going 50-31 at Chase Field (plus-$1,326). What's been different so far this year, is that Arizona is not only getting good pitching (2.53 ERA is No. 1 in MLB to-date) but good hitting as well. Now that's new! Despite winning the NL West in 2007, the D'backs hit an NL-low .250 (ranked 29 of 30 teams in MLB), while scoring only 712 runs (also 29th). However, so far in 2008, the D'backs are batting .277 (3rd-best in MLB!) and have scored a ML-high 62 runs. Getting the starting nod is Dan Haren, who Arizona acquired in the off-season (from Oakland) for a slew of prospects (I think it was six?). He was a "star in waiting" for the A's, going 43-34 with a 3,62 ERA these past three years and LY started the All Star game for the AL. He struggled somewhat in the second half and despite a 15-9 record (3.07), the A's were just 19-15 in his starts. They were however, 11-6 in his home starts, where he posted a very good 2.82 ERA. He was not overpowering in his Arizona debut (4/2 at Cincy), going six innings while allowing four hits and three ERs (Az lost 6-5). However, in his home debut last Monday, he went six innings and allowed just one ER in a 9-3 win over the Dodgers. I had him in that game and will back him again here, as I believe he's the "real deal" and the D'backs on "hitting on all cylinders." Meanwhile, the Rockies are "stuck in neutral."
TV Game of the Week 15* Az D'backs.
This total is too low! Ian Snell is considered Pittsburgh's best pitcher (and he probably is) but I believe he's a little overrated. He's made 32 starts in each of the last two seasons, going 23-23 overall with an ERA of 4.23 (the Pirates are 34-30 in his starts). He's allowed more hits (407) than innings pitched (394) in the last two years and in '06, his home ERA was 5.60 (it was 3.89 LY). He opened '08 with a mediocre start at Atlanta (6 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) and then pitched very well at Florida (6 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER with a 10-0 ratio). However, he's had little luck against the Reds, posting a 5.32 ERA in seven career starts. Last year, he pitched very well against Cincy the first time he met them but then in three more starts against them in '07, allowed 25 hits and 16 ERs in 17.1 innings (8.31 ERA). Bronson Arroyo gets the start for Cincy. He won 14 games for the Red Sox in '05 and then 14 for Cincy in his first season with the club in '06. However, he went 9-15 with a 4.23 ERA for the Reds last year, allowing 232 hits in 210.2 innings. Of bigger concern was his propensity to allow HRs, as he followed an '06 season in which he allowed 31, by allowing 28 last year. He's made two starts this year (both at home) and has allowed 13 hits and nine runs (seven earned) in 10.2 innings (5.91 ERA). And in case you were wondering, he's allowed five HRs, four in his last outing alone! Now he makes his first road start of the year and let me point out that the Reds went 3-15 in his road starts in '07! Cincy owns a team ERA of 3.02 in '08 but Arroyo has not "helped the cause." These pitchers are getting "way too much respect" with an opening total of 8 1/2.
Spectacular Saturday Total on Cin/Pit Over
Wolkosky Milan
552-450-19 last two hundred eleven days
214-173-6 last ninety one days
3-0 Yesterday
Today:
10* CHARLOTTE +9
10* DALLAS -3?
10* UTAH -6
10* GOLDEN STATE -16?
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
INDIAN COWBOY:
Hornets -10.5 (POD) -
Hornets -10.5 (POD)
Going for Golden Week Today - Winning 6 Days in a Row.
Perfect Week in Session Currently:
Winning 13 of 17 NBA POD's of late.
Winning 8 of 11 Days in April.
April Results: 24-14-1 (63%): +30.27
Friday: 1-0 (Raptors - POD Winner)
Thursday: 2-0 (Reds - POD Winner)
Wednesday: 2-1 (Magic - POD Winner)
Tuesday: 2-1 (Knicks +11 - POD Winner)
Monday: 2-1 (National Championship Pick: Memphis/Kansas Under - Winner)
Sunday: 1-0 (Bucks +9.5 - POD Winner)
10-3 This Week (70%+)
1 NBA play today, looking at the MLB card currently. Going for the Golden Week today (7 straight winning days and going for winning day 9 of 12 in April). I was considering a 5* today on this play, but decided to simply make this a 3 unit wager for a POD. The long story short here as that it is great to get the Hornets at this time of the season, but tack on the fact they come off a loss to the Lakers, tack on the fact they are well coached and this team similar to the Magic or Raptors that come off a loss are great, tack on the fact that this team leads in the West and home court advantage in the playoffs is big and tack on the fact this team lost to the Kings on the road at ARCO last time, this makes for a great spot today with the Hornets coming off a loss, with revenge and in a battle to keep their top seed in the West. The Kings are a sound team, but this team can get pounded such as when the Lakers rolled in and pounded this team when they had revenge just a few games back, the Kings also come off a comfortable win over Portland so their immediate mindset isn't of frustration but of being relatively complacent not going to the playoffs anywhere. I like the Hornets here for all the reasons stated above, the Hornets are 5-0-1 ATS as road favorites (remember, they were dogged at L.A. - still managed to cover though), the Honets are 26-5-2 ATS playing on 0 days of rest and the Kings are 0-5-1 ATS as underdogs of late.
Reds/Pirates Over 8.5
Great value here. Given that just 1 run was scored last night with 2 sound pitchers, I look for a big output in offense today. Ian Snell has pitched the over in both of his starts in part b/c the Pirates give him solid offense but also because Snell is hittable due to a lack of control as the game progresses. Tack on the fact that Bronson has been hit very well by NL teams and the Pirates are a very scrapp team at home and Snell faces a Reds offense that didn't score a run yesterday and is frustrated, look for an offense output today of about 11 runs in a 6-5 type of ballgame either way.
Hornets -10.5 (POD) -
Hornets -10.5 (POD)
Going for Golden Week Today - Winning 6 Days in a Row.
Perfect Week in Session Currently:
Winning 13 of 17 NBA POD's of late.
Winning 8 of 11 Days in April.
April Results: 24-14-1 (63%): +30.27
Friday: 1-0 (Raptors - POD Winner)
Thursday: 2-0 (Reds - POD Winner)
Wednesday: 2-1 (Magic - POD Winner)
Tuesday: 2-1 (Knicks +11 - POD Winner)
Monday: 2-1 (National Championship Pick: Memphis/Kansas Under - Winner)
Sunday: 1-0 (Bucks +9.5 - POD Winner)
10-3 This Week (70%+)
1 NBA play today, looking at the MLB card currently. Going for the Golden Week today (7 straight winning days and going for winning day 9 of 12 in April). I was considering a 5* today on this play, but decided to simply make this a 3 unit wager for a POD. The long story short here as that it is great to get the Hornets at this time of the season, but tack on the fact they come off a loss to the Lakers, tack on the fact they are well coached and this team similar to the Magic or Raptors that come off a loss are great, tack on the fact that this team leads in the West and home court advantage in the playoffs is big and tack on the fact this team lost to the Kings on the road at ARCO last time, this makes for a great spot today with the Hornets coming off a loss, with revenge and in a battle to keep their top seed in the West. The Kings are a sound team, but this team can get pounded such as when the Lakers rolled in and pounded this team when they had revenge just a few games back, the Kings also come off a comfortable win over Portland so their immediate mindset isn't of frustration but of being relatively complacent not going to the playoffs anywhere. I like the Hornets here for all the reasons stated above, the Hornets are 5-0-1 ATS as road favorites (remember, they were dogged at L.A. - still managed to cover though), the Honets are 26-5-2 ATS playing on 0 days of rest and the Kings are 0-5-1 ATS as underdogs of late.
Reds/Pirates Over 8.5
Great value here. Given that just 1 run was scored last night with 2 sound pitchers, I look for a big output in offense today. Ian Snell has pitched the over in both of his starts in part b/c the Pirates give him solid offense but also because Snell is hittable due to a lack of control as the game progresses. Tack on the fact that Bronson has been hit very well by NL teams and the Pirates are a very scrapp team at home and Snell faces a Reds offense that didn't score a run yesterday and is frustrated, look for an offense output today of about 11 runs in a 6-5 type of ballgame either way.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
ez winners
2 STAR: (903) MILWAUKEE (+$132) over NY Mets
(Listing Sheets and Santana)
(Risking $200 to win $264)
12:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (908) ST. LOUIS (-$105) over San Francisco
(Listing Wellemeyer and Cain)
(Risking $210 to win $200)
3:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (920) BOSTON (-1.5)(+$126) over NY Yankees
(Listing Beckett and Mussina)
(Risking $200 to win $252)
12:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (913) CHICAGO (+$145) over Philadelphia
(Listing Lilly and Hamels)
(Risking $200 to win $290)
6:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (923) MINNESOTA (+$102) over Kansas City
(Listing Bonser and Tomko)
(Risking $200 to win $204)
6:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (903) MILWAUKEE (+$132) over NY Mets
(Listing Sheets and Santana)
(Risking $200 to win $264)
12:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (908) ST. LOUIS (-$105) over San Francisco
(Listing Wellemeyer and Cain)
(Risking $210 to win $200)
3:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (920) BOSTON (-1.5)(+$126) over NY Yankees
(Listing Beckett and Mussina)
(Risking $200 to win $252)
12:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (913) CHICAGO (+$145) over Philadelphia
(Listing Lilly and Hamels)
(Risking $200 to win $290)
6:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (923) MINNESOTA (+$102) over Kansas City
(Listing Bonser and Tomko)
(Risking $200 to win $204)
6:10PM Central Time
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Yankee Capper MLB:
5 Units - Cleveland Indians -220 ouch!
4 Units - Boston Red Sox
4 Units - Philadelphia Phillies
3 Units - Toronto Blue Jays
3 Units - Houston Astros
3 Units - St Louis Cardinals
3 Units - Detroit Tigers
3 Units - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2 Units - Colorado Rockies
2 Units - Cincinnati Reds
2 Units - San Diego Padres
5 Units - Cleveland Indians -220 ouch!
4 Units - Boston Red Sox
4 Units - Philadelphia Phillies
3 Units - Toronto Blue Jays
3 Units - Houston Astros
3 Units - St Louis Cardinals
3 Units - Detroit Tigers
3 Units - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2 Units - Colorado Rockies
2 Units - Cincinnati Reds
2 Units - San Diego Padres
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Now 528-417 our last 945 on Wiseguys 778-654 our last 1432 Widow Wiseguys Black Widow Free Pick for 4/12: 1* on Houston Astros -115
(List Backe and Miller) The Astros are just a small home favorite at home and they are worth every penny with their No. 2 starter in Brandon Backe on the hill. Andrew Miller (0-1, 12.91 ERA) is one of the key young players acquired in the trade that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. The 22-year-old lefthander surrendered six runs and eight hits in 3 1/3 frames but managed to escape without a decision in Florida's 10-7 victory over Washington on Monday. Backe (0-1, 3.27 ERA) allowed two runs and six hits with seven strikeouts in his last turn on Sunday - a 3-2 loss. Backe?s great pitching will not go for nothing tonight with the Astros? hitters finally giving him some solid run support against Andrew Miller. Take Houston here
(List Backe and Miller) The Astros are just a small home favorite at home and they are worth every penny with their No. 2 starter in Brandon Backe on the hill. Andrew Miller (0-1, 12.91 ERA) is one of the key young players acquired in the trade that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. The 22-year-old lefthander surrendered six runs and eight hits in 3 1/3 frames but managed to escape without a decision in Florida's 10-7 victory over Washington on Monday. Backe (0-1, 3.27 ERA) allowed two runs and six hits with seven strikeouts in his last turn on Sunday - a 3-2 loss. Backe?s great pitching will not go for nothing tonight with the Astros? hitters finally giving him some solid run support against Andrew Miller. Take Houston here
