Service Plays for 12/31 - Happy New Year!

[eddieh8823]

Let 'er rip!! I'll get this party started...



Arthur Ralph Superpicks: Cal/Air Force Over

Regular Plays: Oregon, Air Force, Indiana

Have a wonderful New Years:mj06: :toast: :drinky: :weed: :00x1 :00x22 :00x26 :00x27 :00x9

 

[quanjin]

John Ryan.....

John Ryan.....

College Football
Ryan's 5* Monster Total Armed Forces Bowl

Thanks in advance. Happy New Year!!!

 

[Lockloser]

College Football
Ryan's 5* Monster Total Armed Forces Bowl

Thanks in advance. Happy New Year!!!

:shrug: :0corn :SIB

Yes please Ryan... he will save us.:mj07: :142smilie

Just bustin nuts Q. Keep on truckin, Bro.:0corn

 

[Lockloser]

BTW Arthur Ralphs FREE PLAY is:

Fresno State:00hour

Thanks as always for the pays, Eddie. Your a gentleman AND a scholar!

 

[GIANTS007]

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!

EDDIEH8823, QUANJIN, DUKE, MMST,TAIPANS, LOCKLOSER, TO1

--LETS FINISH THE YEAR WITH A BANG--

THANX FOR ALL THE HELP- LETS KICK SOME ASS IN 2008!!!!!

:toast: :toast: :toast: :toast:

 

[to1]

happy new year every1. :00x1
may the happiness of your family, health, the joy of friendship and companion surround you in the next year and many years to come! fnly lets all make some cash!

 

[MMST]

HAPPY NEW YEAR:

EDDIEH8823, QUANJIN, DUKE, MMST,TAIPANS AND LOCKLOSER

THANX FOR ALL THE HELP- LETS KICK SOME ASS IN 2008!!!!!

:toast: :toast: :toast: :toast:

A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO YOU. You put a lot of time and effort into this forum and we all can't tell you how much it is appreciated. You do a great job and the number of viewers prove it. Thanks many many times from the 5,000 plus viewers!!!!!!
MMST

 

[cutigerdoc]

:shrug: :0corn :SIB

Yes please Ryan... he will save us.:mj07: :142smilie

Just bustin nuts Q. Keep on truckin, Bro.:0corn

Lock...sounds like you and Arthur Ralph. :142smilie :mj07:

 

[quanjin]

Good luck in 2008....

Good luck in 2008....

Thanks to all the posters that make this site the best.

I know I catch a lot of flack for asking about John Ryan all the time, but nobody really asks about him. He's a solid capper with a 15-year proven record in all sports. I used his service in 2004 and 2005. He then signed up with "vegasexperts" and he no longer offers season packages.

Thanks and happy new year!!

 

[GIANTS007]

THE GOLD SHEET ( 7-8 )



UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game
[Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31 in Boise]?Fresno?s top RB Mathews is injured;blitzes of Tech interim HC Tenuta are relentless...



ARMED FORCES BOWL
AIR FORCE (9-3) vs. CALIFORNIA (6-6)
Monday, December 31 Day at Fort Worth, ** (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Air Force 11 8-3 9-2 29 21 300 115 40-30-7 137 239 27-13-13 +7 3.7 16.2
California 12 6-6 3-9 28 26 164 235 43-20-18 152 223 36-19-16 -1 .3 10.6


Air Force 27 - California 24?
Which Cal team will show up in Fort Worth?
The one that won its first 5 games and ascended to the No. 2 ranking in the
polls after its stirring win against full-strength Oregon in Eugene Sept. 29?
Or the one that didn?t cover a pointspread after that win over the Ducks, and
wheezed into the postseason on the heels of 6 losses in its last 7 games?
True, we were asking some of the same questions last season before the
Bears proceeded to destroy Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl. But this isn?t 2006.
And we see little evidence to indicate Jeff Tedford will rediscover that earlyseason
magic any better than he could down the stretch of a hugelydisappointing
campaign, especially against a consummate overachieving Air
Force squad.
Indeed, the contrasts couldn?t be much starker. Unlike cold Cal, the Falcons
enter their first bowl since ?02 riding a 7-game cover streak, having responded
positively to the tweaks 1st-year HC Troy Calhoun made to the familiar option
that was a staple of Ken Hatfield & Fisher DeBerry?s AFA teams over the past
three decades. Although plenty of option elements remain in the jazzed-up
attack, sr. QB Shaun Carney now operates out of the shotgun much of the time,
often managing to spring hybrid WR/KR Chad Hall (1415 YR and 45 receptions,
with 15 TDs) for big plays. Meanwhile, the senior-laden Falc ?D? has
consistently executed the various blitz schemes of shrewd 1st-year d.c. Tim
DeRuyter. On the other hand, the Bear ?D? lacks the playmakers of recent Cal
stop units, springing plenty of leaks as ?07 progressed, including its disturbing
defeat at Washington Nov. 17 when allowing a whopping 334 YR.
In past years, Cal?s ?O? could be counted upon to compensate for any
defensive deficiencies, but the Bears didn?t exceed 23 points their last 6 games.
And with QB Nate Longshore still limited by an ankle injury suffered in that longago
Oregon win, explosive frosh RB Jahvid Best sidelined, and star WR/KR
DeSean Jackson recovering from a deep thigh bruise, Cal appears unlikely to
pull out of its late-season lurch.
(04-California -14 56-14...SR: California 5-2)





MUSIC CITY BOWL
FLORIDA STATE (7-5) vs. KENTUCKY (7-5)
Monday, December 31 Day at Nashville, TN (Grass Field

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Florida St. 12 7-5 5-7 23 22 121 239 28-10-14 114 236 33-10-20 +3 .3 11.0
Kentucky 11 6-5 6-5 35 32 145 282 50-15-33 195 212 45-18-21 +1 .9 6.5


Kentucky 31 - Florida State 24?

Sometimes, it?s a novel concept in
handicapping. Never mind poinstspread records and historical technical
data. What do we see with our own eyes? Which team flat-out looks better
than the other?
Using that criteria, a strong case can be made for Kentucky over Florida
State...even if we don?t include our favorite Wildcat fan, Ashley Judd, in the
equation.
Certainly, there isn?t much comparison between the respective offenses.
Despite some noticeable improvements under 1st-year o.c. (and future HC)
Jimbo Fisher, the Nole attack remains choppy, unable to consistently establish
an infantry assault (just 3.5 ypc) and often blowing hot-and-cold through the air
despite some upgrades in jr. QB Drew Weatherford?s performance pattern and
occasional breakout plays from NFL-bound WR De?Cody Fagg. But the FSU
?O? is a Chevy compared to UK?s Ferrari, in particular, likely NFL 1st-round
draftee QB Andre Woodson, who tossed 36 TDs from the Cats? pro-style attack.
And Woodson has an added bonus in now-healthy RB Rafael Little, slowed by
nagging hurts the second half of the season. Moreover, Woodson?s squadron
of targets presents capable underneath (TE Jacob Tamme) and downfield
options. Four UK receivers caught at least 50 passes, and all can move after
the catch. Meanwhile, SEC sources say the Wildcat ?D? might not be as
vulnerable as stats suggest, given the accelerated pace of UK?s games due to
its high-powered offense, while the reputation of FSU?s stop unit was tarnished
in blowout losses at Virginia Tech & Florida in November. And remember that
the Cats were good enough to beat top-ranked LSU in October.
Most regional observers also believe Kentucky?s mild late-season regression
was a result of its brutal SEC schedule. But with a month to regroup, and with
lots of regional support in familiar Nashville (the Cats? third trip to Music City in
12 months), we?ll trust what our eyes have seen all season.
(DNP...SR: Kentucky 3-





MUSIC CITY BOWL
FLORIDA STATE (7-5) vs. KENTUCKY (7-5)
Monday, December 31 Day at Nashville, TN (Grass Field)
Kentucky 31 - Florida State 24?

Sometimes, it?s a novel concept in
handicapping. Never mind poinstspread records and historical technical
data. What do we see with our own eyes? Which team flat-out looks better
than the other?
Using that criteria, a strong case can be made for Kentucky over Florida
State...even if we don?t include our favorite Wildcat fan, Ashley Judd, in the
equation.
Certainly, there isn?t much comparison between the respective offenses.
Despite some noticeable improvements under 1st-year o.c. (and future HC)
Jimbo Fisher, the Nole attack remains choppy, unable to consistently establish
an infantry assault (just 3.5 ypc) and often blowing hot-and-cold through the air
despite some upgrades in jr. QB Drew Weatherford?s performance pattern and
occasional breakout plays from NFL-bound WR De?Cody Fagg. But the FSU
?O? is a Chevy compared to UK?s Ferrari, in particular, likely NFL 1st-round
draftee QB Andre Woodson, who tossed 36 TDs from the Cats? pro-style attack.
And Woodson has an added bonus in now-healthy RB Rafael Little, slowed by
nagging hurts the second half of the season. Moreover, Woodson?s squadron
of targets presents capable underneath (TE Jacob Tamme) and downfield
options. Four UK receivers caught at least 50 passes, and all can move after
the catch. Meanwhile, SEC sources say the Wildcat ?D? might not be as
vulnerable as stats suggest, given the accelerated pace of UK?s games due to
its high-powered offense, while the reputation of FSU?s stop unit was tarnished
in blowout losses at Virginia Tech & Florida in November. And remember that
the Cats were good enough to beat top-ranked LSU in October.
Most regional observers also believe Kentucky?s mild late-season regression
was a result of its brutal SEC schedule. But with a month to regroup, and with
lots of regional support in familiar Nashville (the Cats? third trip to Music City in
12 months), we?ll trust what our eyes have seen all season.
(DNP...SR: Kentucky 3-1-1)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Florida St. 12 7-5 5-7 23 22 121 239 28-10-14 114 236 33-10-20 +3 .3 11.0
Kentucky 11 6-5 6-5 35 32 145 282 50-15-33 195 212 45-18-21 +1 .9 6.5






SUN BOWL
OREGON (8-4) vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (9-3)
Monday, December 31 Day at El Paso, TX (FieldTurf)
South Florida 35 - Oregon 23?

There wasn?t much future in being ranked
No. 2 this year. In fact, five different teams held that spot in the BCS standings
for just one week during 2007. Another lasted two. Six straight opening
victories?including upsets at Auburn and vs. West Virginia?found surprising
South Florida at No. 2 when the first BCS rankings were released in mid-
October. But the Bulls went bust that same week at Rutgers. About a month
later, following 8 wins (and covers) in its first 9 games, Oregon also fell
immediately after attaining the seemingly-hexed No. 2 spot, its BCS title hopes
(along with star sr. QB Dennis Dixon?s knee) ruined at Arizona.
The Ducks haven?t won since that fateful trip to Tucson, dropping their last 2
regular-season games as well. USF, on the other hand, bounced back after its
mid-season lull, winning & covering its last 3. That momentum aside, the Bulls
also hold a decisive edge at QB in this matchup. Their indefatigable soph signal
caller Matt Grothe has accounted for 47 TDs in his first 2 seasons, throwing for
more than 5000 yards & running for another 1634. Oregon counters with gangly
6-6 RS frosh Justin Roper (just 31 career pass attempts), who was pressed into
service when sr. backup Brady Leaf hurt his ankle. And Roper didn?t draw an
easy bowl assignment in the swarming USF stop unit that features star soph DE
George Selvie (14? sacks & nation-leading 31? tackles for loss!) and procaliber
sr. CBs Mike Jenkins & Trae Williams. Meanwhile, the clicking Bulls (48
ppg last 3) have become tough to contain now that talented frosh RB Mike Ford
(originally signed with Alabama; 337 YR & 6 TDs in last 3 games!) is healthy.
Sure, Roper (2 TDP & a TDR vs. Oregon St.) has potential and speedy bigplay
jr. RB/return man Jonathan Stewart at his disposal. It?s just that Grothe
and ?margin? USF (14 of last 16 wins by a TD or more) figure to mount the
majority of scoring drives.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Oregon 12 8-4 8-4 37 24 244 218 55-31-22 137 250 34-12-18 +5 3.6 9.8
So. Florida 11 8-3 7-4 37 21 199 228 50-28-15 119 214 26-7-16 +13 3.9 10.5






HUMANITARIAN BOWL
FRESNO STATE (8-4) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7-5)
Monday, December 31 Day at Boise, ID (Artificial
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Fresno St. 11 7-4 6-5 33 29 199 202 46-26-13 196 242 38-21-16 -6 2.9 15.4
Geo. Tech 11 6-5 4-6 22 20 186 190 26-17-8 102 215 26-14-10 -6 -.9 11.0

Fresno State 27 - Georgia Tech 23?
There isn?t a roadmap to deal with what
to expect when a coaching change is made by a college team prior to a bowl
game. Indeed, we?ve seen numerous examples of some squads responding
and some not responding, including the last time Georgia Tech was in this
situation back in 2001 following George O?Leary?s ill-fated departure to Notre
Dame. The Jackets, with interim HC Mac McWhorter at the helm, beat Stanford
in the Seattle Bowl.
Generally speaking, however, such upheaval isn?t seen as a positive, and
certainly not involving the sort of dynamics Tech must deal with for its trip to
Boise. Chan Gailey was dismissed following the regular-season finale vs.
Georgia, with d.c. Jon Tenuta elevated to interim HC for the bowl. The Jackets
subsequently hired Gailey?s successor, Navy?s Paul Johnson, who?s just an
interested spectator for this game. Tenuta has since been linked to other
coordinator openings (LSU in particular), and much of the current GT staff
figures to splinter, with Johnson rumored ready to take many of his Annapolis
assistants to Atlanta. Hardly an ideal set of circumstances with which to deal
with preparation for a far-away bowl game.
But even without those distractions, a persuasive case can be made for
Fresno, which more resembled past no-nonsense Pat Hill Bulldog teams (4-0
as a bowl dog, including a win over GT in the ?02 Silicon Valley Bowl) than LY?s
injury-riddled 4-8 squad. Jr. QB Tom Brandstater is more confident than he was
in ?06, tossing just 5 picks. Although slashing frosh RB Ryan Matthews (6.0 ypc)
is sidelined, Fresno retains a physical infantry component now featuring
punishing soph Will Harding (236 YR last 2). The Bulldogs were more than a
physical match for Big XII Kansas State in a Nov. 24 romp. Meanwhile, GT
could never properly complement RB Tashard Choice (1310 YR) with a viable
aerial diversion, not with disappointing jr. QB Taylor Bennett completing just
49% of his throws. So, when adding the Jackets? recent failures as chalk (1-6-
1 last 8 in role), our preference for Fresno is clear.
(DNP...SR: Fresno State 1-0






SUN BOWL
OREGON (8-4) vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (9-3)
Monday, December 31 Day at El Paso, TX (FieldTurf)

South Florida 35 - Oregon 23?
There wasn?t much future in being ranked
No. 2 this year. In fact, five different teams held that spot in the BCS standings
for just one week during 2007. Another lasted two. Six straight opening
victories?including upsets at Auburn and vs. West Virginia?found surprising
South Florida at No. 2 when the first BCS rankings were released in mid-
October. But the Bulls went bust that same week at Rutgers. About a month
later, following 8 wins (and covers) in its first 9 games, Oregon also fell
immediately after attaining the seemingly-hexed No. 2 spot, its BCS title hopes
(along with star sr. QB Dennis Dixon?s knee) ruined at Arizona.
The Ducks haven?t won since that fateful trip to Tucson, dropping their last 2
regular-season games as well. USF, on the other hand, bounced back after its
mid-season lull, winning & covering its last 3. That momentum aside, the Bulls
also hold a decisive edge at QB in this matchup. Their indefatigable soph signal
caller Matt Grothe has accounted for 47 TDs in his first 2 seasons, throwing for
more than 5000 yards & running for another 1634. Oregon counters with gangly
6-6 RS frosh Justin Roper (just 31 career pass attempts), who was pressed into
service when sr. backup Brady Leaf hurt his ankle. And Roper didn?t draw an
easy bowl assignment in the swarming USF stop unit that features star soph DE
George Selvie (14? sacks & nation-leading 31? tackles for loss!) and procaliber
sr. CBs Mike Jenkins & Trae Williams. Meanwhile, the clicking Bulls (48
ppg last 3) have become tough to contain now that talented frosh RB Mike Ford
(originally signed with Alabama; 337 YR & 6 TDs in last 3 games!) is healthy.
Sure, Roper (2 TDP & a TDR vs. Oregon St.) has potential and speedy bigplay
jr. RB/return man Jonathan Stewart at his disposal. It?s just that Grothe
and ?margin? USF (14 of last 16 wins by a TD or more) figure to mount the
majority of scoring drives.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Oregon 12 8-4 8-4 37 24 244 218 55-31-22 137 250 34-12-18 +5 3.6 9.8
So. Florida 11 8-3 7-4 37 21 199 228 50-28-15 119 214 26-7-16 +13 3.9 10.5

 

[GIANTS007]

POINTWISE ( 4-11)


OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6) vs INDIANA (7-5)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL NETWORK TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Okla St ........ 46.2 .. 33-29 .. 21-20 .. 246-155 .. 238-292 .. - 1 . Okla St
Indiana ....... 40.5 .. 32-27 .. 18-19 .. 156-159 .. 238-239 .. + 0 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the first time in 14 years (45-20 loss to Virginia Tech in '93 Independence),
the Hoosiers of Indiana grace the bowl scene. They followed that loss to the
Hokies with a 6-5 record in '94, but then suffered through 12 consecutive
losing campaigns, before managing a 7-5 season this year. Lynch (for the
stricken Hoeppner) became the first head coach in program history to reach a
bowl game in his first season. The key to the Hoosiers' season, was its quick
start vs non-conference foes Indiana St, Western Michigan, & Akron, winning
by a combined score of 133-58. No, not the toughest of competition, but just
what Indy, & its 16 returning starters needed, in shaking a losing attitude.
They couldn't stay with Illinois, Mich St, or Wisconsin (112-44 pt deficit), but
their 2 other losses came by just 6 & 3 pts, vs 8-4 Penn St, & at 6-6 Northwestern.
However, check 288-134, 368-22, 192-68, 279-145, & 165-94 RY deficits
in their 5 losses. Hardly enough for QB Lewis (61%), along with his 2,839 yds
& 26 TDs to overcome. And that spells trouble vs an Oklahoma State Cowboy
team which sports not only the land's 9th ranked offense, but 7th best rushing
game, behind do-it-all QB Robinson (2,522 yds, 20 TDs passing; 777 yds, 7
TDs rushing). The 'Pokes scored at least 39 pts in each of their 6 wins, &
have now topped 40 pts 10 times the past 2 years. Thus, defense has to be
their bane, & so it is, ranking 104th overall, & 116th vs the pass, so Lewis has
to be licking his chops. Thus, a barnburner is almost a certainty. In an oddity,
the Hoosiers recorded the only shutout in this bowl's history (24-0 vs Baylor in
'91, when it was known as the Copper Bowl). This should be exact opposite.
PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Indiana 30 RATING: 3






CLEMSON (9-3) vs AUBURN (8-4)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 44.1 .. 34-18 .. 19-15 .. 147-106 .. 231-168.. +11 . Clemson
Auburn ....... 47.3 .. 24-17 .. 18-17 .. 154-119 .. 174-179.. + 1 . by 7.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Defense! This one matches a pair of perennial bowl participants, who meet
for the first time since the Tigers (or War Eagles) of Auburn took the measure
of the Tigers of Clemson, 21-17, in the '97 Peach Bowl, which, incidentally, is
the former name of this bowl. And doesn't that seem a logical score for this
contest? When the dust settled, the Tigers ranked 6th in the land in total "D",
8th in scoring "D", 19th vs the run, & 13th vs the pass. Solid credentials. But
the Eagles weren't far behind, ranking 8th, 6th, 25th, & 6th, in those columns,
respectively. So pts will be at a premium. However, if a team is to break out,
offensively, then Clemson would be the obvious choice. CU has exploded for
at least 42 pts on 5 occasions, with 2 of those marks posted vs bowl teams:
70-14 vs Central Michigan, & 44-10 vs Wake Forest. They are led by one of
the more pleasant surprises, QB Harper, who ranks 17th in the nation, as well
as 1st in the ACC in QB ratings, with a 67% pct, & 2,887 yds, along with 27 TD
passes, & just 6 INTs. Davis & Spiller have been "go-to" backs, while Kelly (84
receptions) is a force. The Eagles have been among the elites for ages, &, as
noted above, can take almost any foe out of its game. They thrive in the dog
role, covering 7-of-8 in that rare designation, over the past 4 years. If they are
at a disadvantage here, it is their penchant for the turnover, which has seen a
combined minus 11 in 3 of their 4 losses (5-0 deficit vs So Fla, 5-1 deficit vs
Miss St, 4-2 deficit vs Georgia). Though a veteran, sr QB Cox threw for only 9
TDs this season, while tossing 12 INTs. Thus, the QB edge seems to favor
Clemson, & that may decide it. Hate bucking AU as a dog, but this a CU call.
PROPHECY: CLEMSON 24 - Auburn 17 RATING: 6




ARMED FORCES BOWL AT FORT WORTH, TEXAS

CALIFORNIA (6-6) vs AIR FORCE (9-3)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
12:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
California ... 43.8 .. 28-26 .. 20-21 .. 150-149 .. 218-197 .. + 1 . Air Force
Air Force .... 37.1 .. 29-19 .. 21-18 .. 299-131 .. 120-226 .. + 8 . by 8.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Questionable motivation vs a streaking competitor. That's pretty much the
story line on this contest. The Golden Bears of California opened the season
with a bang. A 5-0 start, including a 31-24 upset of then-healthy Oregon,
which propelled them to the accursed #2 spot in the nation, where they promptly
lost to Oregon St, as 2-TD chalks. And it has been disastrous ever since,
with just a lone win over their last 7 contests, that by a scant 3 pts, in a 20-17
win over Washington St, also as a 2-TD chalk. And try a 20-13 loss to then 3-
8 Stanford, in their season finale, again as a 2-TD favorite. Thus, an incredibly
embarrassing 1-6 SU windup, along with a money-burning 0-7 ATS, by a
combined 89 pts. In QB Longshore (2,544 yds, 60%, 16 TDs) RB Forsett
(1,406 yds, 13 TDs), & WR Hawkins (69 catches), they sure seem to have the
nucleus, but finished just 56th in the land, offensively, a far cry from LY's 12th
ranked squad, which destroyed Texas A&M, 45-10, in the Holiday Bowl. That
team finished the regular season on an 0-5 ATS slide, by the way. Their foes
here, the Falcons of Air Force return to the bowl scene for the 1st time since
the '02 San Francisco Bowl. They've been turned around by new coach Troy
Calhoun, who replaced the legendary Fisher DeBerry. Led by senior QB
Carney (62.2%) & RB Hall, who led the team in rushing yds (1,415), receiving
yds (488), receptions (46), rushing TDs (14), & all-purpose (12.6 yds per
return), the Falcons finished on 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS (by 73? pts) runs. They
finished 2nd in the nation in rushing, altho they aren't on the radar overhead.
Altho LY's Bear bowl rout can't be dismissed, that was a better squad. Falcs!
PROPHECY: AIR FORCE 31 - California 30 RATING: 3



GEORGIA TECH (7-5) vs FRESNO STATE (8-4)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
2:00 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Ga Tech ...... 42.9 .. 26-19 .. 20-16 .. 203-100 .. 183-210 .. - 4 . Ga Tech
Fresno St ... 37.6 .. 32-27 .. 21-21 .. 205-183 .. 202-227 .. - 9 . by 0.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
This marks the eleventh straight bowl year for the Yellow Jackets of Georgia
Tech, with their head coach, Chan Gailey becoming the first head coach in GT
history to post a winning record in every season at the helm, & joining Bobby
Dodd as the only Tech coaches to win a least 7 games in 6 consecutive campaigns.
His reward? A pink slip. So he will not be on the sidelines for this
contest, as he is being replaced by defensive coordinator, Jon Tenuta. Thus,
altho Tech is enjoying a superior bowl run, the 6 seasons under Gailey have
also resulted in 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, & 5 loss campaigns, as well as an extension of
futility vs arch-rival Georgia, which has taken 7 straight from the Jackets. Tech
is led by Tashard Choice, who led the ACC with 1,310 RYs, a full 308 yds
ahead of his nearest competitor. Bennett for Ball at QB isn't anything special
(49%, with 6 TDs & 9 INTs). It has been that Tech "D", which ranks 11th in the
land (12th vs the run), which has been its backbone, with its highlight a 13-3
smothering of Clemson, holding the explosive Tiger running game to 1.1 ypr.
But just a single cover in Tech's last 5 games, & that by a mere 3 pts vs 1-11
Duke. The Bulldogs of Fresno State again take their place as a bowl entrant,
after missing in '06, following 7 straight holiday trips. Fresno is in possession
of a nearly perfectly balanced squad, topping 235 RYs 5 times, & surpassing
205 PYs on 7 occasions. They've averaged 37.9 ppg in their 6 RGs, & that
includes 4 bowl squads (Texas A&M, Oregon, Nevada, & Hawaii). Led by QB
Brandstater (61.2%, 15 TDs, 5 INTs), & RB Matthews (6.0 ypr, 14 TDs), they
are a force. And the dog has covered the last 7 bowl games involving Fresno.
PROPHECY: FRESNO STATE 27 - Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 1



SOUTH FLORIDA (9-3) vs OREGON (8-4)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
2:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
So Florida .. 43.7 .. 36-21 .. 21-17 .. 193-112 .. 229-217 .. +13 . So Florida
Oregon ....... 45.1 .. 37-24 .. 25-21 .. 244-137 .. 218-250 .. + 5 . by 11.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
This past season, no less than 5 teams were affected by the curse of being
ranked No. 2 in the nation. That is the amount of squads which tumbled out of
that slot, after losing to unranked teams. Three of those five teams were USC,
California, & Boston College, along with the participants in this contest, with
the Bulls of South Florida losing to Rutgers, 30-27, as 2-pt chalks, and the
Ducks of Oregon losing to Arizona, 34-24, as 10? pt favorites. Oregon, as
just about even casual fans are aware, suffered the loss of their then Heisman
leading candidate QB Dennis Dixon in that loss to Arizona, & with it, not only
OU's national title hopes, but also its Pac 10 title aspirations. The Ducks held
a remarkable 18.3 ATS ppg edge in their 3 road games, which preceded his
loss, including that 39-7 destruction of Michigan at Ann Arbor. An 0-3 finish,
both SU & ATS (by 45? pts). One man, a team does not make, so the adage
goes, but it sure seems the case with the Ducks. The Bulls play in their 3rd
straight bowl, in only their 11th year of existence. As we've noted before, they
have posted upsets over bowl-bound teams in each of the last 7 years, most
notably '05's 45-15 rout of 20-pt fav Louisville. Led by QB do-everything QB
Grothe, who has thrown for 2,473 yds (60%) & 13 TDs, and run for 832 yds
(4.5 ypr) & 10 TDs, their 3 losses came by a total of just 15 pts, one of which
saw the Bulls turning the ball over 8 times. Among their wins, of course, was
that upset of West Virginia, & note a 44.3 ppg average in their final 4 games.
Just a short time ago, these 2 squads were headed for bowls of much more
significance, but this is how it all shook out. Current Duck free-fall decides it.
PROPHECY: SOUTH FLORIDA 34 - Oregon 17 RATING: 2





KENTUCKY (7-5) vs FLORIDA STATE (7-5)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
4:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Kentucky .... 46.6 .. 37-30 .. 22-22 .. 157-190 .. 282-200 .. + 1 . Florida St
Florida St ... 45.1 .. 23-22 .. 17-17 .. 121-114 .. 239-236 .. + 4 . by 1.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Seems impossible, but this contest marks just the 4th time in their history that
the Wildcats of Kentucky are in a bowl game in back-to-back seasons. Not
only that, but they have back-to-back bowl wins only once in school history,
coming in the '50 Sugar, & '51 Cotton, respectively. The Seminoles of Florida
State, obviously, are a different matter, altogether, as this marks their 26th
straight bowl season, & 29th in Bobby Bowden's 32 years of leadership. But
there has been a bit of a drop in the 'Noles lately, with this contest making it 2
straight years without a premier New Year's Day slot. From '87 thru '00, the
Sems suffered no more than 2 losses in any season, an incredible 14 year
run. However, they've tasted bitter defeat 31 times since 2001, including 16
setbacks over the past 3 years. Ranking among the best offensive squads
had been a given, but check their 59th, 75th, & 82nd ratings in ball movement
the past 3 seasons (90th in scoring this year). First Weatherford; then Lee; &
now Weatherford again at QB, along with a 90th ranking overland. And check
40-21 & 45-12 losses to Virginia Tech & Florida in 2 of their last 3 games. The
'Cats are led by Heisman worthy QB Woodson, who wound up the season
with 3,351 yds & 36 TD passes (6 in the 52-50 season finale OT loss to Tenn)
& just 10 picks, ranking 20th in the land among passers. Overland, the 'Cats
have been hurting, but should be a full strength for this one, with Little (5.3 ypr)
the main man. A year ago, UK (+10) dominated Clemson, 28-20, in the Music
City Bowl, so bowl confidence galore under head coach Brooks' leadership.
'Noles have had their moments, but don't have the firepower to take this one.
PROPHECY: KENTUCKY 34 - Florida State 24 RATING: 2

 

[GIANTS007]

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 13-2 !!!!!!!!!!)-wow



California vs. Air Force +3.5 O/U 54 Recommendation: Air Force
Monday, December 31, 12:30 pm EST (ESPN) Fort Worth, Texas
The two teams come into the game headed in opposite directions
with Air Force having won three in a row and six of seven
and Cal having lost six of seven after racing out to a 5-0 start.
Air Force took well to rookie head coach Troy Calhoun?s system,
flying to a 9-3 record and their first winning season since 2003.
Former Academy graduate Calhoun added some spread option
looks and a zone running scheme to the traditional triple option
run by his predecessor Fisher Deberry. Air Force continued
their dominating running attack to finish No. 2 in the nation at
298 ypg. Senior Chad Hall has flourished under Calhoun rushing
for 1,415 yards and 14 touchdowns and adding 46 receptions.
Senior Shaun Carney has been productive at quarterback under
Calhoun completing 62.4% of his passes and rushing for
529 yards. Calhoun also brought in defensive changes playing
a much more aggressive style which allowed Air Force to
give up only 19.3 points-per-game, good for 18th in the nation.
Cal could be the least excited team in the country to be in a
bowl game. The Golden Bears opened the season as hot as any
team and raced to a 5-0 record averaging over 39 points per
game and reached number two in the national rankings before
falling to Oregon State 31-28 on October 13. The explosive offense
fell flat, failing to reach 24 points in any of their final
six contests while managing just one victory down the stretch.
DeSean Jackson was the all purpose threat who was supposed
to be among the nations leaders heading into this game, but
he struggled in his quest to repeat last season?s 1,000-plus
yards and 18 yards per catch production. Jackson suffered a
thigh contusion against Washington and missed the season?s final
game against Stanford, however he should be fine by new
years eve for this bowl game. Jackson?s lack of production can
in part be laid at the feet of quarterback Nate Longshore who
was inconsistent all season throwing 16 TDs and 13 INTs. A year
removed from throwing for 3,000 yards and 24 TDs, Cal?s decline
can?t all be blamed on the talented quarterback, but he
certainly played a role in the Golden Bears? dismal season. I
believe the Stanford game told the story on Cal, as the Bears
couldn?t get up to play their Bay Area rival. Can?t expect much
motivation to play a lesser conference opponent in Air Force
when expectations were much greater. Cal is well coached and
they have a more talented team than Air Force, but the Bears
have been in hibernation and in a tailspin since mid October and
I don?t look for them to pull out of their dive now. Cal?s defense
was 58th in the nation against the run allowing 151.9 yards-pergame.
Air Force will have creative ways to run the ball with the
extra time to prepare and should have success. Cal looks forward
to putting the ?07 season behind them as the Falcons are
not only worthy of a play, but also to potentially win outright.





Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State +5 O/U 54.5 Recommendation: Fresno State
Monday, December 31, 2 pm EST (ESPN2) Boise, Idaho

Georgia Tech gets some new life with former Navy head coach Paul
Johnson signed in for next season. He?ll be with the team, but defensive
coordinator Jon Tenuta will take over coaching duties in the
bowl game. The season for the Yellow Jackets was far from gratifying.
The move from former quarterback Reggie Ball to Taylor Bennett
was supposed to bring upon a more efficient passing attack,
but that was far from the case. Bennett completed less than 50%
of his passes and was a turnover waiting to happen against pressure
defenses. Running back Tashard Choice looks back to full strength
after some midseason injuries. The senior rattled off 446 yards his
last three games and should find daylight against a Fresno State defense
that allowed 5.0 yards per carry. The Tech defense was solid
for most of the season, allowing over 28 points only once (Georgia).
Fresno State?s strength is running the football (205 ypg) and the Yellow
Jackets allowed over 100 yards only four times all year. One of
Tech?s biggest problems was finding consistent ways to score. Choice
and Co. scored 26 rushing TDs on the year, but Bennett?s lack of accuracy
led to touchdowns only 50% of the time inside the red zone.
In looking at Georgia Tech?s schedule, you can?t help but notice there
were a lot of close games and they certainly didn?t outclass anyone.
The only win against a bowl bound team was a 13-3 victory over Clemson.
There were two and three-point wins, respectively, over suspect
North Carolina and Maryland, and against the ACC?s elite (Virginia,
Virginia Tech and Boston College), the Yellow Jackets were outscored
a combined 79-36. Fresno State played a decent schedule despite
calling the woeful WAC home. They were destroyed by Oregon earlier
in the year when the Ducks were playing as good as anyone in the
country, but outside that loss, the Bulldogs hung with the likes of
Hawaii, Boise State and Texas A&M. The problem they did have was
being able to stop the run. Despite their competitive nature, they allowed
big yardage on the ground to better foes, and will be getting
a full dose of Choice and others in this contest. FSU also is prone to
giving up pass yardage with a 227 yards per contest average for opponents.
The advantage in this one, however, does go to Fresno who
has an excellent game planner in head coach Pat Hill. Hill?s groups
have always been able to perform against top competition, and the
luxury of playing a bowl game in a conference foe?s backyard (Boise
State) has to make things a lot more comfortable. Georgia Tech on
the other hand has to feel disappointed with their situation, getting
shipped to the lone cold weather bowl game on the slate. Keep in
mind, two years ago, GT was in an almost identical situation after
being sent to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco to play Utah as a
nine-point favorite. The result was a humiliating 38-10 loss. Fresno
State has one task and one task only and that is to stop the Georgia
Tech running attack. If they can keep Choice under wraps, we
feel they have enough offense (32.2 ppg) to make this a close ball
game and wouldn?t be surprised at all if they came away with the win.



Oregon vs. South Florida -6 O/U 52 Recommendation: South Florida
Monday, December 31, 2 pm EST (CBS) El Paso, Texas

A couple of clubs that were in a position to play in a BCS bowl
game are settling for much less in this bowl matchup in El Paso.
Both Oregon and South Florida were ranked second in the nation
at one point during the regular season. One play appears to
have cost the Ducks a shot at a BCS title. Quarterback Dennis
Dixon?s injury against Arizona was too much to overcome for
the Ducks. Oregon will bring a three-game losing streak into
this contest. Backup quarterback Brady Leaf will try to end the
club?s slide after missing the Civil War game vs. Oregon State
due to injury. He has seen only spot duty behind Dixon in the
last three years and struggled in relief of Dixon at Arizona. The
Ducks still have some offensive weapons to work with despite
Dixon?s absence. Running back Jonathan Stewart led the PAC-10
in rushing with 1,469 yards as part of the nation?s eighth-best
rushing offense. Leaf will try to get WR Jaison Williams (119 receptions
the last two years) involved in the game to bring some
balance to the offense. Oregon?s defense is good but not great
as the unit ranked a respectable 39th in the nation in scoring
defense. This group will face more pressure in this outing as the
Ducks will not be able to control the ball as much without Dixon.
The Sun Bowl will provide a final opportunity for Oregon?s seniors
to win a bowl game. The Ducks are 0-4 in the postseason
since 2002. The stretch includes a dreadful bowl effort a year
ago that saw the Ducks lose by 30 points to BYU in Las Vegas.
The South Florida Bulls have been up and down this season. A
6-0 start was followed up by three straight defeats before the
squad rebounded to win their final three games. Head coach Jim
Leavitt has built this program into a sleeping giant in the landscape
of college football. Wins over Auburn and West Virginia
finally garnered some acclaim for the club in 2007. Dual threat
Quarterback Matt Grothe directs the country?s 20th best scoring
offense. Grothe combined for over 3,300 yards through the
air and on the ground for the Bulls. He is aided in the backfield
by running back Mike Ford who found paydirt 12 times in the
regular season. The stop unit is one of the nation?s best as the
Bulls rank 22nd in total defense. The group was steady and consistent
as all but three foes were held to less than 24 points. The
motivational edge clearly goes to South Florida in this matchup.
The Bulls will likely savor the chance to beat another household
name and further boost the overall appeal of the program. Even
in a non-headline bowl game, USF is more likely to bring a focused
effort as opposed to Oregon. The Ducks are clearly not
the same club without Dixon. While South Florida?s BCS dreams
were crashed in mid-season, Oregon had aspirations of a National
Title and with one knee injury, the wheels fell completely
off. It is hard to imagine the Ducks bringing a big performance
under these circumstances, so we?ll back the Bulls in this one.




Kentucky -1.5 vs. Florida State O/U 56 Recommendation: Over
Monday, December 31, 4 pm EST (ESPN) Nashville, Tenn.

Motivation appears to be the issue in this ACC-SEC bowl matchup.
The circumstances make it difficult to find either squad being
highly inspired to play in this minor bowl contest. It is pretty obvious
why Florida State isn?t likely to be to be too excited to make
the trip to Nashville. The program has been one of the elites in
college football over the last 20 years. In a run that is unlikely to
be duplicated anytime soon, the Seminoles finished in the top five
for 14 straight years from 1987-2000. Because this dominant run
was fairly recent, FSU fans still expect the Seminoles to be within
range of this kind of success. A third straight year with at least five
losses is not what followers of the program have come to expect.
While first-year offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is set to eventually
replace legendary head coach Bobby Bowden as the leader
of the program, the future seems a bit cloudy for Florida State.
Fisher?s arrival did little to pump any life into an FSU offense that
has been underwhelming in the last couple of years. The Seminoles
(90th in the nation in scoring offense) have been unable to run the
ball with any kind of consistency. Despite some significant playing
time heading into this season, quarterbacks Drew Weatherford and
Xavier Lee have been unable to deliver substantial production for
the offense. The defense, under longtime coordinator Mickey Andrews,
has held up its end of the bargain by ranking 36th in the
nation in total defense. At first glance, Kentucky would appear to be
eager to play in this contest. The ?basketball? school is playing in
only their second bowl game in the last eight years. However, this
marks a return trip to the Music City Bowl for the Wildcats after
last year?s upset win over Clemson. The motivation was clearly in
play last year for the club?s first bowl outing since 1999. This time
around, the game will have more of a ?been there, done that? feel
to it. Despite having some time to regroup, the Wildcats clearly left
a lot on the field in their heartbreaking OT defeat to rival Tennessee
to close the regular season. The loss was UK?s 23rd straight to the
Volunteers. Even a win over the Seminoles will be unable to take
away the sting of such a bitter defeat. Still, Kentucky will bring a
talented group to Nashville to face the Seminoles. Senior quarterback
Andre Woodson will be looking to raise his NFL stock in this
one as he leads a high-powered attack that ranks 15th in the nation
in scoring offense. Woodson fired 36 TD passes this year as
wideouts Steve Johnson and Keenan Burton emerged as one of the
top receiving tandems in the nation. Running back Rafael Little (861
rushing yards) keeps defenses honest as a quality running threat.
The defense is clearly a notch below FSU?s stop unit as Kentucky
is 65th in the nation in total defense. With motivational issues for
both clubs, the over appears to have some value in this matchup.
Both offenses are pass-first attacks that should be able to strike
some blows in a game where the defenses aren?t likely to bring top
flight intensity. We?ll take the Over in this New Year?s Eve battle.



Indiana +4 vs. Oklahoma State O/U 69 Recommendation: Indiana
Monday, December

 

[GIANTS007]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 12-3!!!!!!!!!!)



These two met in ?04 with Cal leading the series 5-2. HC Tedford & Co enter this game much maligned
after losing 6 of L/7 (0-7 ATS) incl an embarrassing loss to Stanford. Cal will be playing a 5th str bowl gm
for the 1st time while AF is making its 1st appearance S/?02. None of AF?s 17 seniors have played in a
bowl, and this was their 1st winning ssn S/?03. Cal has played 6 bowl squads being outscored by a 29-27
and outgained 399-389 going just 2-4 SU & ATS. AF took on 5 bowl tms and went 3-2 ATS & 2-3 SU
being outscored 25-19 and outgained 376-351. During pressn, new AF HC Calhoun told the Cadet Wing
that if his tm went 6-0 at home and went bowling (which they did), he would buy the first 200 tickets. AF
should have a large crowd edge, drawing many military fans. This is MWC COY Calhoun?s (an AF grad)
1st bowl game as a HC but he was the OC at Ohio and WF where he did go to a bowl in ?02. Both Cal
& AF faced CSU this ssn and while both tms were victorious, Cal was actually outgained 458-391 and
they barely held on with a 6 pt win (-14) while the Falcons manhandled CSU outgaining them 437-380
in their 45-21 win (+3). The Bears have 8 senior starters & 20 upperclassmen starters while the Falcons
have 14 seniors and 19 upperclassmen.
The Bears? offense began the ssn on fire avg 39 ppg & 426 ypg on their way to being #2 in the country
after 5 gms. QB Longshore (64%, 7-2 ratio in first 5 gms) appeared to be having an even better ssn than
LY until an ankle inj suffered late in the gm vs UO caused him to miss the heartbreaking loss to OSU.
Following his return the next wk, it was apparent that he was not 100% causing him to struggle for the
remainder of the ssn completing just 57% of his passes with a 9-11 ratio over the L/6. Forsett became
the 5th straight Cal RB to rush for 1,000+ yds practically carrying the off for most of the ssn. The WR
combo of Jackson & Hawkins comb for over 50% of the tm?s rec?s despite both dealing with nagging inj?s
most of the yr. The OL avg 6?5? 303 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 163 ypg (4.8) while
all?g just 11 sks (#5 NCAA, 2.6%). Overall the off finished with our #30 rankings. Despite losing some key
players to graduation the Bears D played surprisingly well earning our #31 overall ranking. The DL avg
6?3? 295 & all?d 152 rush ypg (3.9) while recording just 22 sks as injuries to this position were significant
most of the year. The secondary earned a middle of the pack ranking at #54 in pass eff D all?g 223 ypg
(61%) with a 16-10 ratio. Opposing tms chose to punt away from dangerous DeSean Jackson for most of
the ssn as he returned just 12 punts (1 TD) all ssn long. The Bears finished with our #47 ST ranking.
AF?s #36 off is led by MWC Off POY Hall who was the target of a late ssn grass roots Heisman
campaign. Hall began the ssn as a WR in Calhoun?s modified offensive scheme, but stepped into the RB
role in gm 6 vs UNLV and never looked back (1,257 rush, 6.9 L/6). He needs just 79 yds rush to break
AF?s single-ssn rush rec?d (Beau Morgan, 1996) He is also the leading rec when QB Carney chooses
to pass it (23% of the time) becoming the only player in the NCAA to lead his team in both rushing and
receiving. The OL avg 6?4? 272 with 2 Sr starters and helped pave the way for 299 rush ypg (5.4) which
is #2 in the NCAA in rush offense while all?g 13 sks (6.7%). LB Fowler is the tm?s #1 tklr and leads our
#59 rated D which is all?g just 131 rush ypg (3.3) with 28 sks. DB Thomas follows close behind, heading
up our #62 pass eff D. In their L/3 gms (Army, ND, SDSt) the AF D held each team under 100 yds rush
as those teams avg just 57 ypg (1.7), but it could be hard to hold that enthusiasm as they have not played
since Nov 17th. The Falcons have our #11 ST?s unit. Hall literally does it all for the Falcons as he is the
only player who has returned punts TY and is also the leading KR. PK Harrison helped the season along
as he nailed the game winning 33 yarder vs TCU, which spring-boarded AF through a tough conference
schedule (7-1 ATS in conf play, only loss to BYU).
The service academies perform well in bowls as they are not distracted by the pageantry and stay
focused on their goals. After AF HC Calhoun talked about changing to a pass offense he basically kept
the Falcons? offense the same. California is devastated to be here after being ranked #2 and thinking
about a national championship early TY. They now have lost an unthinkable 6 of 7 and need to win to
keep from a losing season. They are now healthy (QB & top 2 DL) and can refocus. The Bears finished
last season is a disappointing fashion (1-2 SU & 0-5 ATS) and came out and blasted A&M while AF
played only one top #20 team (BYU) and lost that game 31-6.
FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 38 Air Force 27 RATING: 2★




This is the 1st meeting in a matchup that features two former #2 ranked tms. The Bulls have never played
a P10 tm and have 37 days to prepare while UO last played Dec 1st (2OT loss to rival OSU). The Ducks are
4-2 vs BE tms but haven?t faced one S/?65 (Pitt). The Bulls are 22-11 ATS vs non-conf tms S/?01 while UO has
covered 8 of 10 S/?04. This is USF?s 3rd straight bowl appearance as well as their 3rd bowl in school history.
LY in its 10th yr of existence, USF won its 1st bowl 24-7 (-5) over EC. Under HC Bellotti Oregon has gone
4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) in bowl gms losing their L/4 incl a 30 pt loss to BYU LY. This marks UO?s 4th appearance
in the Sun Bowl with their last being a 31-30 (+4) ?03 loss to Minny. In ?07 the Bulls defeated #17 Auburn on
the road & #5 WV at home and achieved their 1st Top 25 ranking in school history. They rose to #2 but after
3 straight losses & a challenge by Leavitt, the offense responded avg 48 ppg in their L/3. Oregon also rose
to #2 before Heisman front-runner Dixon?s knee inj KO?d him for the season in a 34-24 (-10) loss to AZ to
begin a 3 gm SU & ATS losing streak. USF played 7 bowl caliber tms TY going 4-3 SU & ATS outscoring
opp?s 34-21 & outgaining them 409-332. UO has played 8 bowl squads going 5-3 SU & ATS outscoring them
32-23 & outgaining them 411-398. The Bulls are 2-3 ATS TY as an AF while UO is 9-4 as an AD since ?03.
USF has 6 seniors among 16 upperclassmen starters while UO has 8 among their 16.
The Bulls have our #22 ranked offense avg 35.8 ppg & 422 ypg. LY USF found a dual-threat QB they
hadn?t seen since 2002?s Marquel Blackwell. QB Grothe has been a one man offensive machine leading in
passing & rushing. Much like ?06, USF got little production from the backfield platooning 3 RB?s until HT Bama
transfer Ford (PS#46) emerged rushing for 112 ypg (5.0) the L/3. Late ssn inj?s to the WR position gave rFr
Mitchell 22 of his tm leading 37 rec. The OL, avg 6?4? 309, was banged up all ssn giving up 25 sks (6.6%)
but still paved the way for 193 ypg (4.4). The offense should be healthy for the bowl. USF?s defense has our
#23 ranking all?g 20.7 ppg & 327 ypg with 30 sks. The DL which features 2 Sr?s avg 6?2? 275 and has all?d
112 rush ypg (3.2). They are led by BE Def POY DE Selvie who broke the NCAA single ssn tfl record with
31.5. This defense held the #4 rush attack (293 ypg) of WV to 188 yds & held L?ville QB Brohm to a season
low 213 yds & 3 int. They lead the NCAA in TO?s gained with 40!!! AA CB Jenkins skipped the NFL (#3DC)
& teams avoiding him found All-BE Williams on the other side who returned 3 int for TD?s. The Bulls have
our #7 pass eff def all?g 215 ypg (51%) with a 17-23 ratio. USF has our #81 ST?s led by Delbert Alvarado
who had a solid yr despite missing 4 of 7 FG?s vs Auburn which could have given USF a comfortable lead.
Numbers are misleading for UO?s offense as they finished with our #12 offense but inj?s to key players
have decimated the team. QB Dixon earned P10 Off POY honors despite missing the final 2.5 gms as he
was probably the most important player to any tm in the nation. The off avg 41 ppg & 506 ypg in Dixon?s
10 starts but just 16 ppg & 244 ypg without him incl the team?s first shutout S/?85 vs UCLA. After an inj to
bkup QB Leaf & #3 QB Costa, the Ducks will be forced to use rFr QB?s Roper & Kempt (102 ypg, 36%, 2-4
ratio combined). RB Stewart has taken the bulk of the workload (79% of RB att?s) at the RB spot since an
ACL inj to Johnson in their 6th gm. WR Williams & TE Dickson became UO?s only consistent targets after
inj?s to WR?s Paysinger and Colvin (#2 & #3 on depth chart) early in the ssn. The OL avg 6?5? 311 & is led
by C Unger who helped lead the way for 243 ypg rush (5.1) while all?g just 23 sks (6.0% - 6 in the L/2 gms).
The Duck D had a better than expected ssn earning our #27 ranking. The DL led by DE Reed avg 6?3? 284
and the team allowed 137 ypg rush (3.6) with 35 sks. The LB position also battled inj?s losing WLB Tuitele
for most of the ssn (should be available) & MLB Bacon who tore his ACL vs ASU. UO?s secondary features
an abundance of playmakers led by ROV Chung and they finished #15 in pass eff D all?g 250 ypg (53%)
with an 18-16 ratio. The ST unit finished with the #46 ranking featuring a strong 1st yr effort from P Syria.
Both teams were ranked as high as #2 earlier this year and each believed they had a legitimate
chance to play in the BCS Title game. Oregon lost probable Heisman winner QB Dixon and now will go
with rFr Roper. While he struggled replacing Leaf vs UCLA, he had a week of practice to face Oreg St
and has worked with the #1?s the last month. Both defenses have talent that will be playing on Sunday
and by looking at the checklist you?ll see they are very evenly matched. Oregon will try to control the
TOP with Stewart running and Grothe has tossed 8 int the L/4 games.
FORECAST: OREGON (+) 21 South Florida 23 RATING: 2★





Tech is one of just 6 schools to play in a bowl gm in each of the L/11Y & ranks 3rd all time in
bowl winning % (62.9). This will be the 2nd time GT has played in the Humanitarian Bowl as they
defeated Tulsa, 52-10 in ?03 & it was the last time the Jackets played on artificial turf. GT & FSU
have met just once before, a 30-21 FSU win in ?02 Silicon Valley Classic. GT fired their HC Gailey,
who led the Jackets to a bowl gm in each of his 6 seasons, after they lost to in-state rival UGA for
the 7th straight yr. DC Tenuta has taken over as the interim HC. This will be Tenuta?s 3rd time vs the
Bulldogs. Fresno should have the fan edge as this is in a WAC stadium & GT fans won?t travel this
far to sit in the snow. FSU played Nov 30th while GT?s last gm was Nov 24th. GT has 16 upperclassmen
starters including 11 Sr?s while FSU has 12 upperclassmen including 6 Sr?s. The Jackets are
just 4-7-1 as an AF and FSU is 3-1 as an AD. GT faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 1-5 ATS & was
outscored 24-15 & outgained 394-325. Fresno went 1-4 SU & 3-2 ATS vs bowl tms & was outgained
by 121 ypg & outscored by 9 ppg. The Bulldogs had their string of 7 consec bowl gm appearances
snapped LY but turned its ?06 record of 4-8 around to finish 8-4 in ?07. Fresno is in a bowl for the 8th
time under HC Hill and the Bulldogs are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. Each of FSU?s 7 bowl gms under Hill
were closely contested & all were decided by single digits, an avg of 6 ppg. Fresno is 2-0 SU & ATS
vs tms from the ACC with both meetings occurring in a bowl game. Aside from its win over GT in
?02, FSU defeated UVA 37-34 (+5) in OT in the MPC Computers Bowl here in ?04.
Tenuta said he will not make any changes on the def or sp tms but expects to do some tinkering
on offense (#52), especially in the passing game which ranks #102 in the NCAA. Tenuta will probably
go with more than 1 QB. FSU ranks #86 in run def & now has to face a healthy Choice (hamstring &
knee), who finished as the #1 rusher in the ACC (#15 NCAA). GT?s OL avg 6?3? 295 & has paved the
way for a solid 4.8 ypc rush & all?d just 19 sks (5.7%). GT?s rush D is ranked 12th in NCAA all?g 100
ypg & GT is #1 NCAA with 47 sks, but now has to face the #16 rush off (FSU avg 205 ypg rush). The
DL avg 6?4? 268 with 2 Sr starters & is allowing just 2.8 ypc. LB Wheeler, GT?s leading tklr, is solid
around the line of scrimmage. As solid as GT?s overall D (#28) has been, it struggled on pass D & is
#58 all?g 210 ypg (55%). While they all?d just 11 TD, they only came up with 5 int (#117 NCAA). Ray
Guy Winner P Brooks, who has the highest career punting avg ever in the ACC, is #4 in the NCAA
TY & PK Bell is #4 in FG?s on our #3 ST?s unit.
FSU has our #64 offense which is directed by QB Brandstater who really took a step forward in
his progression TY. What?s more, the bigger FSU?s game & opponent, the bigger he played in those
gms. In Fresno?s five gms TY vs BCS conf tms or tms that appeared in the rankings in ?07, Brandstater
threw for 1,264 yds (62%) & 10 TD with only 3 int. When RB Dwayne Wright (1462 yds) left early for
the NFL LY, the backfield was a concern for the Bulldogs entering ?07. However, that concern soon
gave way to strong performances in FSU?s RB-by-committee backfield that racked up 2,456 yds &
30 TD on the ground TY. The OL avg 6?4? 285 & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while allowing 18 sks. TE
Pascoe led the tm in rec thru 11 gms before WR Moore turned it up down the stretch. In FSU?s final
two gms, Moore had 13 rec (18.5) with 2 TD and recorded the only 100 yd rec gms by a Bulldog TY.
FSU DL avg 6?2? 265 & features two Sr?s. The defense is led by LB Riley who posted 51 more tkls than
any other Bulldog en route to earning WAC Def POY honors. FSU had the fewest int by any tm in the
NCAA TY with 3. FSU has our #8 rated ST unit & is led by Jefferson who is #1 in the NCAA in KR.
Fresno St has lived by HC Pat Hill?s mantra ?Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime?. They made a statement
knocking off Kansas St and took A&M to OT and would relish a win vs a BCS conference
team in a bowl. In LY?s Humanitarian Bowl Nevada had the crowd edge as the Boise fans supported
their conference foe and you?ll find the same situation again. Fresno?s offense has been clicking at
the end of the season and Brandstater, at 6?5?, has nimble feet and a cannon for an arm while GT
players will be thinking about how next season?s switch to the option affects them.
FORECAST: FRESNO ST (+) 30 Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 4*





UK is 3-1-1 vs FSU with the last meeting a 26-24 win by UK in 1965. FSU is 39-33-4 vs SEC teams
not incl Florida. FSU is 4-5 as an unfamiliar AD while KY is 4-2 as an AF under Brooks. LY FSU avoided
their 2nd losing ssn with their 44-27 win over UCLA in the Emerald Bowl, and need a win TY to put a
positive finish to an up & down ssn. Since 1982 FSU leads the NCAA with a 18-6-1 bowl record (16-8-1
ATS). FSU was in danger of breaking their consecutive bowl appearances (28th, 38th overall) at 5-3 with
Nov gms vs BC, VT, MD & Florida. They split going 2-2 with wins at BC & at home vs MD before their
45-12 loss to FL. FSU was unable to score a TD vs the Gators & was outgained 541-287 while KY was
able to score 5 TD & outgained FL 512-427. KY will be going to B2B bowl games for the 4th time in their
history and will make their 2nd straight trip to the Music City Bowl while this will be FSU?s 1st visit. LY UK
defeated Clemson 28-20 (+10?) in front of a record crowd for the Music City Bowl and most of the fans
were wearing blue. UK fans snapped up 27,000 tickets to this bowl because Lexington is within driving
distance and should greatly outnumber FSU fans who have been notoriously absent from recent bowl
appearances. UK has only won B2B bowls once in their history (?51-?52). KY has played 9 bowl caliber
teams going 4-5 SU & ATS with an avg score of 34-34 & outgaining those tms 429-399. FSU has played
8 bowl caliber tms going 4-4 SU & ATS being outgained 381-315 & outscored 23-20. FSU has 6 senior
starters among 14 upperclassmen in the starting lineup while KY has 9 seniors & 14 upperclassmen.
The Noles have our #60 off ranking avg 23 ppg & 360 ypg. Bowden cleaned house after LY?s dismal ssn &
brought in LSU OC Jimbo Fisher to revamp his offense, who has been named Bowden?s successor when he
retires. Still a work in progress, FSU made minor improvements. QB Weatherford was benched after subpar
performances in the 1st 4 gms, but returned after Lee consistently turned the ball over. Weatherford has 1 int
in 270 att?s after throwing 29 in 1st 2Y. RB Smith was banged up this season and never really produced. He
missed vs MD & the Noles moved over WR Parker who rushed for 133 (6.7). Parker leads the team in rec?s
& all-purp yds avg 112 ypg. The OL avg 6?5? 286 paving the way for 121 rush ypg (3.5) all?g 21 sks (5.0%).
The defense which is the strength of the team, returned 8 starters but all?d nearly 60 ypg more than LY &
all?d 437 ypg over L/4 gms. They have our #24 defense all?g 22 ppg & 350 ttl ypg with a league low 26 sks
(6.3%). The DL avg 6?3? 263, all?g 114 ypg rush (3.3). The defense is led by LB Hayes who is tied for #15 in
NCAA in tfl with 17.5. CB Robinson is tied for 10th in NCAA with 6 int. FSU has our #38 pass eff defense
all?g 236 ypg (56%) with a 20-16 ratio. The Noles have a large edge on sp tms (#16-89) led by Parker avg
10.4 yds on PR?s & K Cismesia who was 8-12 from 40+ incl a 60 yd FG vs FL. The bowl elig of some FSU
players could be affected by an academic misconduct case that?s under investigation.
Future NFL QB Woodson ret?d for his senior yr to end some of the school?s long losing streaks
and was able to help the tm achieve some of those goals including their first win over rival Louisville
since ?02 and their first win over a #1 tm (LSU) since 1964. Woodson avg?d 275 ypg (65%) with a 26-4
ratio in the 1st 8 gms and was being touted for the Heisman, but then injs to RB?s Little & Dixon and
WR Burton and an inexplicable OL collapse which left Woodson scrambling for his life at times, led to
a 10-6 ratio in the L/4 gms. Woodson set an NCAA record with 325 passes without an int and finished
#1 in the SEC in pass ypg. The OL finished last in the SEC with 35 sks all?d (23 in L/5 gms) & the tm
avg?d 157 ypg rush (4.2). With all of the offensive injs, UK avg?d just 21 ppg in regulation the L/4 (40
ppg the 1st 8). Little, Burton and Dixon should be healthy for the bowl. UK?s #55 defense is led by LB
Woodyard (#1 SEC tkl pg) and DE Jarmon (#2 SEC sks). UK?s secondary finished #44 in our pass D
rankings all?g 200 ypg (56%) with a 23-15 ratio.
Kentucky finished their season losing 4 of their last 5 after upsetting LSU. Florida St underachieved
for a 2nd straight year but did finish LY with a bowl win. The Wildcats and QB Woodson will get most
of the headlines while the Seminoles will be insulted as a bowl underdog for the 2nd straight year.
FSU has a significant def edge and will be able to slow Woodson while the FSU offense has talent
and speed and look for OC Fisher to open up the offense with a few new wrinkles.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST (+) 31 Kentucky 24 RATING: 3★




These schools met once in 1930. Indiana snapped a 14 yr bowl drought & 12 straight losing ssns
in the midst of an emotional yr with the passing of HC Hoeppner in June. The Hoosiers are 3-5 in
bowls & 4-1 ATS S/?87. HC Lynch (1st IU HC to lead tm to bowl in debut ssn) guided Ball St to the ?96
Las Vegas Bowl (lost 18-15, but covered +6?). OSU is 11-6 SU in bowls (1-3-1 ATS S/?97), but hasn?t
won B2B post season gms since ?87 & ?88. HC Gundy is 3-0 SU & ATS as a player/cch in bowls for
the Cowboys. Indiana is 23-19-6 vs current B12 teams, but hasn?t played one S/?92. OSU is 1-8-1
vs the B10, including 0-2 SU & ATS in bowls. This is both teams? 1st trip to the Insight Bowl which is
played on grass. Indiana (3-8 ATS) & OSU (4-8 ATS) both normally play on artificial turf. The Hoosiers
are 12-26 ATS as an AD and the Cowboys are 8-3 as an AF. Both teams played 8 bowl eligible foes
and Indiana was 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) all?g 432 ypg & only avg 354 ypg on offense. OSU was just 2-6 SU
(3-4-1 ATS) all?g 479 ypg, but did avg 453 ypg on off. Both have 7 senior starters, but OSU has 14
upperclassmen (64%) while IU has 11 (50%). Indiana has had a extra wk of prep as they played their
last gm on Nov 17th. The Cowboys? Orange Brigade will be well represented but Indiana is offering
free tickets to students and has a sizable alumni base in Arizona.
Oklahoma St finished in the B12 South basement (1st tm other than Baylor) 2 yrs ago allowing
418 ypg. They improved on that LY by 54 ypg, but let DC Bedford go. Former Ohio St DB cch Beckman
was brought in as the new DC TY & the def allowed 447 ypg which was the most S/?88 (455 ypg). For
all the trouble with the def TY the spread off had its best yr under HC Gundy & OC Fedora avg 484
ypg (best ironically S/?88, 515 ypg) & the 2nd highest mark since 1940. QB Reid started the first 2
gms, but in a surprise move was benched for Robinson (single ssn rec for ttl yds, 3299) who has not
relinquished his duties. He did miss some time in the reg ssn finale, but X-rays only showed a bruised
shoulder so he should be 100% for the bowl. The rushing yds have gone up by 38 ypg from LY as the
ypc has increased each of the L/3Y (3.9, 5.2 & 5.4). RB Savage has topped 100+ yds in 9 straight. The
Cowboys are 1 of only two IA tms (Houston) to avg 230+ ypg in both rushing & passing. WR Bowman
should be 100% after missing 2.5 gms. The front seven is led by Sr DE Peterson (6?2?? 240). The LB
corps suffered TY as 3 of the players on the preseason 2 deep were dismissed from the program. The
Cowboys rank #100 in our pass eff def giving up 292 ypg (66%) with a 25-12 ratio & clearly this is the
weakness of the tm as the leading tklr is a former WR. Oklahoma St is ranked #11 on offense, but just
#66 on the defensive side & comes in at #69 on ST?s.
After HC Hoeppner died of brain cancer in June, the team and interim HC Lynch dedicated the
2007 ssn to his memory with the goal of ?Playing 13?. IU started the season 5-1 but lost 3 in a row
before rebounding to win 2 of their L/3 to clinch an elusive bid and rightly rewarded Lynch with a 4
year contract extension. The Hoosiers are led by QB Lewis who is rewriting the team?s record book
as a soph. Lewis was also the tm?s top rusher by default as the RB?s struggled due to inj?s in ?07. The
WR corps is probably the deepest in IU history led by 6?7? NFL prospect Hardy who was #2 in the
NCAA in TD rec?s. Hoeppner?s ?7 Blocks of Limestone? OL recruiting class paid dividends with 3 starters
contributing to an off (#62) which avg?d 4.2 ypc and allowed 30 sks. IU?s D (#64) is small by B10
standards with none of the LB?s weighing even 235 lbs. The front 7 was vulnerable vs the run allowing
199.6 ypg to bowl eligible tms but DE Middleton emerged as star as he led the nation in sks. IU set a
school record with 42 sks. The secondary features first day NFL prospect CB Porter and the Hoosiers
rank #61 in pass eff D. IU is #52 in ST?s led by Groza finalist K Starr who hit 10-11 from 40+ including
the game winning 49 yd FG which beat rival Purdue and clinched the Hoosiers? bowl bid.
IU set a goal of ?Playing 13? and reached that goal. You now have a team that is making their first
bowl appearance in 14 years and emotionally feel that this season is a success. Oklahoma St meanwhile
is in their 5th bowl in 6 years, knocked off an SEC opponent LY, and with a 6-6 record knows that a
loss makes this season a complete disappointment. OkSt has more offensive weapons and has been
much more competitive versus a far more difficult schedule (#15-77).
FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 38 Indiana 31 RATING: 1★




Less than 48 hours after the Chick-fil-A Bowl selected Clemson and Auburn, officials declared the
game a complete sellout. This will be the first meeting between these two since the ?98 Chick-fil-A Bowl,
won by Auburn 21-17 under Terry Bowden, Tommy?s brother. AU is 32-11-2 in this series & has won each
of the L/12. This will be Clemson?s 30th bowl appearance (15-14 overall) and its 7th in the Chick-fil-A
(2-4). CU last appeared here in 2004 when it upset #6 Tennessee 27-14. CU is 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS under
Bowden in bowls. Overall Aub is making their 34th bowl appearance & this is their 8th straight bowl under
Tuberville (5-3 SU & ATS overall). Aub hasn?t been a bowl dog since their ?02 upset of Penn St in the
Capital One Bowl. Aub is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in prior Peach Bowl appearances. Bowden served as an
assistant coach at Auburn from ?91-?96. Clemson is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY, all as a fav but are
just 8-14-1 in that role under Bowden. Aub was 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) with 2 outright upsets as an AD TY &
is 10-3 as an AD since ?02. CU is 2-2 ATS on artificial turf under Bowden with both wins coming in bowl
gms. Aub last played in the Georgia Dome in the ?04 SEC Champ gm. AU faced the tougher schedule TY
(#29-51). Both tms have only 6 senior starters, but CU has 15 upperclassmen starting while Aub has 12.
CU has faced 9 bowl caliber teams (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS), outscoring them 31-20 & outgaining them 401-309.
Aub has faced 7 bowl tms (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) and was outscored 23-19 and outgained 326-283.
After rumors spread that Ark was interested in Bowden, CU offered him a contract extension. A
victory here would give the Tigers a 10 win season for the first time S/?90. QB Harper is #1 in the ACC
(#17 NCAA) in pass eff with a solid 27-6 ratio (TD?s CU rec). RB Davis, who is 2nd in CU history in
career rushing with 3,058 yds, is CU?s top RB & half of the ?Thunder-and-Lightning? attack. The other
half is Spiller, who is not only the #2 rusher but #3 in rec?s. WR Kelly led the ACC in rec ypg & has set a
CU single ssn record in rec. The OL avg 6?5? 313 and is led by 4 senior starters who are opening holes
for 159 ypg rush (4.1) but did allow 32 sks (#99 NCAA). Both teams have Top 10 defenses and CU?s D
is only all?g 297 total ypg & 18 pts per gm. The DL avg 6?5? 278 and all?d just 3.3 ypc rush, considering
they only had 26 sks (T#9 FSU in ACC). CU was +12 in TO margin (#2 ACC, #10 NCAA). DE Merling
leads the tm in sks & tfl but he also has the ability to drop back into pass coverage. Watkins and BIllie
are CU?s top LB?s and they have combined for almost 200 tkls. CU has our #20 pass eff D all?g 185 ypg
(58%) with an 11-15 ratio, led by safeties Hamlin & Clemons. CU?s K game struggled TY as PK Buchholz
who also played on CU?s soccer team and many times had games the night before a FB game incl
driving down to Atlanta late Friday night to face GT & where his 4 missed FG?s cost CU the game. He
also missed 2 vs BC incl one as time expired for yet another loss. Buchholz did however make the game
winner in their season finale as time expired for the 23-21 win vs SC.
Aub?s ssn started out rough when they almost lost to KSt (14 pts scored in last 2:01 for 10 pt win),
then suffered B2B upsets at home vs USF & Miss St. Heading into the Swamp at the end of Sept, Aub
was a 17? pt dog and brought Tebow to tears as true frosh PK Byrum hit the 43 yd gm winner twice to end
UF?s 18 gm home win streak. After that Aub?s ssn turned around with the only other losses being a close
loss to LSU and a mistake-filled loss to UGA (both BCS tms). Usually steady QB Cox struggled with a 2-6
ratio in the 1st 3 gms and had a 1-4 ratio in their blowout loss to UGA. True frosh bkup QB Burns actually
started the NMSt gm, but Cox came off the bench to lead the win and Burns served as a change of pace
mobile QB the rest of the yr. The running gm wasn?t up to par early in the ssn, but improved significantly
once Lester ret?d from susp in gm 6. Aub?s OL had 3 true frosh starters (24 sks allowed, 154 rush ypg,
3.7) which is another reason the offense finished #90, and led to the resignation of OC Borges prior to
the bowl. Aub?s #9 D held Doak Walker winner McFadden to 43 yds & overall allowed 119 ypg (3.5) & 17
ppg. Aub finished #16 in our pass defense rankings allowing just 179 pass ypg. Tuberville was rumored
to be a candidate at TX A&M, LSU & Ark TY, but reportedly has agreed to return to Aub next year.
Tuberville called this gm a ?true rivalry? as the tms are close in proximity and recruit many of the same
players. These 2 teams are ranked #8 & #9 in our defensive ratings but Clemson has a large edge on offense.
Auburn was outgained on the season by 43 ypg vs bowl foes while Clemson outgained their bowl opponents
by 92 ypg. Clemson?s embarrassing bowl performance LY insures that Bowden has this team ready.
FORECAST: CLEMSON 19 Auburn 13 RATING: 2★

 

[GIANTS007]

Jon Campbell FROM COVERS (7-8 bowl record)




Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. California (-3 ?, 54)
A recent report from the San Jose Mercury says that the sprained ankle that Cal QB Nate Longshore suffered on Sept. 29 wasn?t a sprained ankle at all. Turns out he also has a bone chip in his ankle. Probably not coincidentally, after their QB went down, Cal lost six of its last seven games and failed to cover in all seven. The Bears have more talent than Air Force, no question, but it?s tough to take a hobbled Longshore.
Pick: +3 ?

Roady?s Humanitarian Bowl
Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech (-4 1/2, 55)
Tech?s passing game under Taylor Bennett was just plain icky to watch this year. If you can slow Tashard Choice and the running game, you can at least keep it close with the Bumble Bees. This Frezzy State team can also put points on the board so this could be one of those unexpected great games of the bowl season.
Pick: Fresno State +4 ?

Brut Sun Bowl
Oregon vs. South Florida (-6 ?, 51 ?)
Dennis Dixon isn?t coming back for this one, right?
Pick: South Florida -6 ?

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Florida State vs. Kentucky (-1, 56 ?)
Kentucky had a brutal schedule this season and I think the Cats started to run out of gas a bit down the final stretch. With time to rest up, they should handle Florida State.
Pick: Kentucky -1

Insight Bowl
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (-4 ?, 69)
The Hoosiers? season of inspiration isn?t over. They might not win this one, but the Cowpokes had better do up their chinstraps.
Pick: Indiana +4 ?

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Auburn vs. Clemson (-2, 48 ?)
Watch Auburn take away the run and Cullen Harper?s short passes. Then go collect your winnings.
Pick: Auburn +2

 

[GIANTS007]

WINNING POINTS ( 9-6)



ARMED FORCES BOWL
(December 31 at Fort Worth)
AIR FORCE over CALIFORNIA by 3
Five weeks into the season Jeff Tedford and his Bears were 5-0, owning wins over
Tennessee and Oregon, and having legitimate national championship aspirations.
A couple of months later they are limping into this game at 6-6, with the only win
by just a field goal over a weak Washington State team. It was a case of them simply
not being all that good to begin with physically, and then not mentally
responding to the challenge when things went south. The latter issue is what sets
the tone for this one, and calling for the Golden Bears to be lethargic about spending
New Year?s Eve in Fort Worth is absolutely the way to go. The key is that we
have already seen a clear sign that they have lost interest ? they had two full weeks
to prepare for arch-rival Stanford in the regular-season finale, a chance to not only
get some redemption, but also for Tedford to establish his turf in the first encounter
with Jim Harbaugh. Instead we saw a flat Cal team lose wire-to-wire, and if they
did not show up then they are not likely to now. Air Force is about as far in the
opposition direction as a team could be, with the Falcons excited about their first
bowl trip in five years. Troy Calhoun did a masterful job of putting life back into
the offense, particularly in the way that he was able to get the ball into the hands
of Chad Hall (1,418 rushing yards; 488 receiving) in the open field. The Bear
defense leaves plenty of room for that to continue here, and the more energized
underdog wins it outright. AIR FORCE 30-27.


SUN BOWL
(December 31 at El Paso)
SOUTH FLORIDA over OREGON by 10
After flirting with BCS hopes for much of the season the Ducks had it all come
apart, with an injury to Dennis Dixon starting a downward spiral that saw them
lose their final three games. The way that the last defeat took place, a numbing 38-
31 double overtime defeat vs. arch-rival Oregon State, is the kind that is awfully
difficult to recover from. Now they are forced to keep practicing for several weeks
for a venue that will not excite them in any special way, and while it does mean
time for Mike Bellotti to try to design an offense around the skills of QB?s Cody
Kempt and Justin Roper, the bottom line is that those two were #4 and #5 on the
depth chart back in August, and are not ready to face the class of defense that they
will see here. And this defense has a lot of class, with George Selvie helping to pressure
opposing offenses into mistakes (he finished 2nd in the nation in sacks), the
Bulls were not just difficult to move against, but also relished scoring on their own
? they directly scored seven touchdowns this season, while coming up with 41 takeaways.
And while their own offense lacks quick-strike potential, QB Matt Grothe
has emerged into a solid field general after two seasons in the starting role, and he
is more than capable of managing this game against an average Duck defense that
we can not expect to bring a lot of passion. SOUTH FLORIDA 31-21.


HUMANTARIAN BOWL
(December 31 at Boise)
GEORGIA TECH over FRESNO STATE by 3
From a purely tactical standpoint, the post-Chan Gailey era for Georgia Tech
should start off seamlessly, with defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta taking over for
this game. But what about focus? Returning to Boise for the second time in four
years is not likely to create any special spark for a Yellow Jacket team that expected
better things, and the fact that they already know that Paul Johnson will be shaking
the playbook up for next season casts an additional shadow over the game. Of
course, Johnson?s arrival could mean more playing time for mobile Josh Nesbitt at
QB, and the word is that we are likely to see some of that already in this game. And
why not, after Taylor Bennett never did get the passing game untracked?
Meanwhile there is no question about Fresno bringing a good focus, with this trip
an unexpected reward in a re-building season, but the bottom line is that the young
Bulldogs are still a year away. They can be whipped at the line of scrimmage if Tech
is motivated (Texas A&M ran fir 318 and Oregon 307 in their only significant
non-conference games), while the absence of RB Ryan Matthews makes it difficult
to balance the offense against the Tech blitz packages. It takes more than just a
higher degree of intensity and having more fans in the stands to make up for those
disadvantages. GEORGIA TECH 26-23.



MUSIC CITY BOWL
(December 31 at Nashville)
KENTUCKY over FLORIDA STATE by 7
For another program, returning to the same minor bowl for the second straight season
might not be accepted as any kind of real reward at all. We do not believe that
is the case for Rich Brooks and his Wildcats. First, any bowl is a reward after they
fight through the rigors of the SEC schedule. Second, why not a venue in which
their fans have easy access, and will easily out-number the Seminole faithful? And
given the way that they handled Clemson 28-20 as +10.5 here a year ago the confidence
level should be right where it needs to be. The task at hand is also not a difficult
one, as we continue to see the Florida State program in decline - the
Seminoles are just 12-13 SU in their last 25 games, and suffered a confidence bruising
rout at Florida in the regular-season finale. Now they face the distraction of
multiple suspensions, and personnel losses. Yet in what is being priced as anyone?s
game to win, there is one of the biggest gaps we will ever find in that range at the
skill positions. While Kentucky brings Andre Woodson, soon to be an NFL first
draft choice, Rafael Little, and a deep corps of receivers to the table, the Seminoles
lack playmakers. They finished 90th in the nation in scoring, 82nd in total offense
and 96th in rushing, all in a season in which the ACC was far below previous levels.
Only the past reputation of these programs enables us to play the better team
from the far better conference in a range in which they only need to win the game
to bring home a cover. KENTUCKY 31-24.


INSIGHT BOWL
(December 31 at Tempe)
OKLAHOMA STATE over INDIANA by 5
For Indiana to be in a bowl game at all following the tragic death of Terry
Hoeppner is one of the great feel-good stories of this year?s college football season.
But while that means a lot of enthusiasm for this game, there are also the unfortunate
harsh realities. First is the fact that it is the first bowl trip in 14 years for the
Hoosiers, which means they suffer from a complete lack of preparation experience.
Second is that they simply were not very good this year, getting this trip because of
a 4-0 run over weaklings in non-conference play, and avoiding both Michigan and
Ohio State in the Big 10. And third, we have to wonder about extending the season
for a team that did not have a great deal of depth. But the spirit can make up
for a lot of things. Now the question is whether the defense can handle an explosive
Oklahoma State attack that can get it done both overland and through the air,
with eight games of at least 200 yards in each category this season. The Hoosiers
do bring an under-rated element, a pass rush that finished 3rd in the nation in
sacks, but the Cowboys only allowed 12 all season vs. a tough schedule, and can
negate that. If the lone Indiana defensive strength is taken away, it is an uphill battle
to get the win. State will be making its fourth bowl appearance in five seasons,
and while staying power was an issue (saw leads of 17 vs. Texas A&M and 21
againstTexas turn into defeats), having been toughened by a schedule that included
three games vs. teams in BCS bowl games does make a difference. OKLAHOMA
STATE 38-33.



CHIK-FIL-A BOWL
(December 31 at Atlanta)
AUBURN over CLEMSON by 3
There probably is not a more trite phrase to use in handicapping than to say that
?the wrong team is favored?, but when we can genuinely say that we have something
going for us. That is the case here. For an ACC team to be favored over one
of the SEC?s elite requires some compelling aspects to the matchup, and in this case
they do not exist. Auburn is better than Clemson. The reason why the oddsmakers
have not acknowledged that is in an SEC full of teams with sex appeal, Tommy
Tuberville?s squad had little. They won with defense, finishing #6 in the nation in
points allowed and #8 in yards, a tremendous achievement considering the schedule.
They beat Florida and Arkansas on the road, had LSU down until the final seconds
of play, and had the lead in the third quarter at Georgia in a game that carried
a most misleading final score. When you play four road games against teams
heading to New Year?s Day bowls, and still finish that high defensively, a statement
has been made. And when you play both the Heisman Trophy winner, and the runner-
up, on the road, each time holding that offense to its lowest output of the season
in terms of both points and yards, then you can handle what Clemson will
attack with. The ground game never got untracked despite the presence of James
Davis and C. J. Spillar, and while Cullen Harper put up big numbers in the ACC,
he was awful against Virginia Tech in his biggest test. This is an even bigger one.
AUBURN 26-23.

 

[GIANTS007]

EROCKMONEY ( 9-6 SO FAR)



12/31 - Armed Forces - Air Force (+4) v. California

Cal experienced one of the biggest collapses in NCAA history. This teams head and heart left the locker room a long time ago. Air Force was a pleasent surprise this season and should creat problems for Cal defense with the option. How can you go against Air force in the Armed Forces Bowl?

Pick: Air Force by 7

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 6th)

12/31 - Humanitarium - Fresno St. (+4.5) v. GT

This is another case of a team not mentally into the bowl game. Fresno is thrilled with this game and GT is picking up the pieces after the firing of coach Gailey. Fresno will look to add another BCS scalp to their resume while GT will look to the off-season.

Pick: GT by 2

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 13th)

12/31 - Sun - S Florida v. Oregon

Oregon has fallen off the map since the Dixon injury, but I could see them playing a solid game to close out the season.

Pick: S Florida by 6

Status: No Play

12/31 - Music City - Kentucky (-1.5) v. Florida St.

I expect Woodson to play a sensational game to finish out his career at Kentucky. Florida St. has little offense and will probably not be up for the game after another disappointing season. Florida St. still has an aura about them and this will be nice win the Wildcat program heading into next season.

Pick: Kentucky by 4

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 12th)

12/31 - Chick - fil - A - Clemson (-2) v. Auburn

This is one of the most interesting bowl games in my opinion matching two excellent teams against one another. The Bowden family still holds ill will towards Auburn University due to the circumsatnces surrounding Terry Bowden. Clemson is known to lay an egg in the bowl, but I think this year will be an exception.

Result: Clemson by 5

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 14th)

12/31 - Insight - Oklahoma St. v. Indiana

Two high powered offenses square off in this matchup. I would lean towards the Cowboys but Indiana has been playing inspired ball for their fallen coach.

Pick: Oklahoma St. by 5

Status: No Play

 

[GIANTS007]

DR BOB ( 7-7)


3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and they?ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech won?t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresno?s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and he?s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he won?t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.

Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.

Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 ? points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but they?ve never had a defense as bad as this year?s edition. I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points.




2 Star Selection
**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isn?t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemson?s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Ford?s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

Auburn?s offense doesn?t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemson?s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburn?s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I don?t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigers? defense - but I?ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.

With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburn?s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).

I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. I?ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher




Cal (-3 ?) vs Air Force: I lean slightly with Cal.

South Florida (-6 ?) vs Oregon: I lean with Oregon.

Kentucky (-3) vs Florida State: No Opinion at this time with Florida State on the verge of suspensions being handed out. At this point I?d pick Kentucky by 3 points.

Oklahoma State (-4) vs Indiana: I lean with Oklahoma State.

 

[GIANTS007]

VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 8-11 SO FAR)




Monday, December 31st
ARMED FORCES BOWL - 12:30pm ET ESPN
451 Air Force 27
452 California 38
CAL -3?





SUN BOWL - 2:00pm ET CBS
453 Oregon 13
454 S Florida 27
S FLORIDA -6?






HUMANITARIAN BOWL - 2:00pm ET ESPN2
455 Fresno St 31
456 Georgia Tech 28
FRESNO ST +4?






MUSIC CITY BOWL - 4:00pm ET ESPN
457 Florida St 23
458 Kentucky 16
FLORIDA ST +3?






INSIGHT BOWL - 5:30pm ET NFLN
459 Indiana 35
460 Oklahoma St 31
INDIANA +4






PEACH BOWL - 7:30pm ET ESPN
461 Auburn 17
462 Clemson 21
CLEMSON -2



FREE PICK: Florida St/Kentucky :: UNDER 56?

 

[GIANTS007]

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-9 ( lost 7 striaght!!)



Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force by 10

Sun Bowl
USF by 4

Humanitarian Bowl
Fresno st by 2

Music City Bowl
Florida st by 10

Insight Bowl
Indiana by 7 *BEST BET*

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Clemson by 3





COLLEGE:

Monday, December 31st
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Amon G Carter Stadium ? Fort Worth, TX
5★ BEST BET
A battle between two teams clearly headed in opposite
directions. Cal started the season in rip-roaring fashion,
jumping out to a 5-0 record and a Number 2 national ranking
before hitting the skids. The Bears then lost six of their fi nal
seven games (0-7 ATS) to limp into this bowl matchup with
a 6-6 record. First-year Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun
took over for the legendary Fisher DeBerry and responded
by leading the Flyboys to their best season since 2000 ? and
the Force?s fi rst bowl appearance since 2003. Every aspect of
today?s game seems to favor the Falcons. Military teams are
a strong 19-6 ATS as bowlers but improve to a dazzling 10-1
mark when outrushing their opponents? a virtual certainty
here since Air Force?s 299 rushing yards per game ranks second
in the nation. California has been less-than-golden when
taking on fellow bowlers, going 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 tries
in that role. Factor in Cal?s tendency to come apart down the
stretch (3-18 ATS from Game Eight out over the last four years)
and we?re having a hard time understanding why these Pac
10 underachievers are laying points instead of getting them.
Off we go, into the wild blue yonder?





MUSIC CITY BOWL
LP Field ? Nashville, TN
4★ BEST BET
FSU quarterback Drew Weatherford is no stranger to criticism
but he can?t be blamed for making costly offensive mistakes:
Weatherford has not thrown an interception in his last 234
pass attempts. That consistency has been missing from Bobby
Bowden?s team in recent years but the ATS archives tell us ol?
Bobby knows what to do once he reaches postseason play.
The Seminoles are a profi table 17-10-1 ATS as bowlers under
Bowden (7-2-1 off a SU loss) and Florida State has excelled
when facing less than .600 SEC competition, going 11-1 SU
& 10-2 ATS in that role. Kentucky vaulted out to a 5-0 start
but limped home with a 2-5 fi nish, a performance that took
some of the luster off the Wildcats? October 13th home upset
of then-Number One LSU. Our PLAYBOOK database tells us
that the Bluegrass Cats are just 3-13 SU & 6-9-1 ATS versus
a greater than .500 opponent off a double-digit ATS loss,
and SEC bowl favorites playing off back-to-back SU losses are
pointspread poision, dropping nine in a row to the number.
ACC bowlers are 9-4 ATS as a pick or dog versus SEC foes and
with FSU offi cials fi nally ironing out the ?Bowden-to-Fisher?
coaching transition, look for a fully-focused Seminole squad
to go cat-skinnin? today.



INSIGHT BOWL
Monday, December 31
INDIANA over Oklahoma St by 7

Handicapping college football
games is as much a measure
of common sense as it is the
accumulation of stats and edges.
Simple logic tells us the Hoosiers are
absolutely thrilled to be a participant in
this game. Playing most of the season
on guts and guile, they dedicated the
campaign to former head coach Terry
Hoeppner, who died of brain cancer
earlier in the year. They weren?t the
prettiest team to come down the pike,
just the most emotional. Along the way
they managed to put 27 or more points
on the scoreboard in 10 of their 12
games. Going up against OSU?s 104th
ranked defense, they appear poised to
do the same today. That sets the table
for perhaps the most remarkable of all
bowl stats, given the fact that pre-New
Years Day bowl dogs who score 27 or
more points are a mind-blowing 104-
14 ATS since 1980! That?s not a typo.
It?s a stunning stat, to be sure. Add
in the fact that BIG 12 bowl favorites
are 2-10 ATS against BIG 10 foes and
we?ve suddenly got enough to take us
over the edge. Common sense, stats
and edges. Next to a dog, they?re a
handicapper?s best friend.

 

[GIANTS007]

ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS ( 6-10 SO FAR )



Dec 31 Armed Forces Bowl 5 Star Air Force over California

Dec 31 Sun Bowl 5 Star Oregon over South Florida

Dec 31 Humanitarian Bowl No Selection Fresno State vs Georgia Tech

Dec 31 Music City Bowl No Selection Florida State vs Kentucky

Dec 31 Insight Bowl 1 Star Indiana over Oklahoma State

Dec 31 Chick-Fil-A Bowl 4 Star Clemson over Auburn