Mighty ! "MR. FADE" Quinn (7-7 in bowls)
Air force + 3 1/2
Fresno + 4 1/2
Sfla - 6 1/2
Kent -1
Indy +4
Auburn +2
Air force + 3 1/2
Fresno + 4 1/2
Sfla - 6 1/2
Kent -1
Indy +4
Auburn +2
Service Plays for 12/31 - Happy New Year!
- Thread starter eddieh8823
- Start date
THE SPORTS REPORTER:
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Amon G. Carter Stadium ? Fort Worth, TX
BEST BET
AIR FORCE over CALIFORNIA by 8
Excellent punishment for the Cal Bears. ?OK, kids, in return for losing six of your last
seven games, including the Big Game against Stanford, you get to be land-locked in Fort
Worth, TX and play defense against some Independent triple-option!? Almost as exciting
as a new pair of pajamas for Christmas. Although he was sacked only six times all season
in 376 pass attempts, Cal?s quarterback Nate Longstiff saw his yards per attempt
drop to 6.8 from 8.0 a year ago, with a TD-INT ratio of 16-13 representing another
decline from his sophomore season?s 24-13. One reason for the dip could be that RB
Marshawn Lynch, currently shredding tacklers in the NFL, meant a lot more to the Cal
offense than anybody realized. As the go-to back, Justin Forsett?s 186 pounds doesn?t
wear down defenses. Cal?s offense gained only 20.5 first downs per game this season
after gaining 20.2 last season, when the games were shorter. Air Force?s offense moved
the chains 21.2 times per game in ?07 with a quarterback Shawn Carney that has put
in four years in the system, tweaked and enhanced by first-season head coach Troy
Calhoun and staff this year. Along the way, Air Force improved its relentless and elusive
ground attack from 4.1 yards per carry up to 5.4. That kind of production keeps the
opposing defense on the field a lot and forces the opposing offense to be near-perfect
when it has the ball. Longstiff and Co. may get a boost if WR DeSean Jackson returns
after missing the Cal game, but Cal did lose five out of the last six with the NFL-eyeing
wideout on the field, and Air Force has a senior-laden secondary. AIR FORCE, 28-20.
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Amon G. Carter Stadium ? Fort Worth, TX
BEST BET
AIR FORCE over CALIFORNIA by 8
Excellent punishment for the Cal Bears. ?OK, kids, in return for losing six of your last
seven games, including the Big Game against Stanford, you get to be land-locked in Fort
Worth, TX and play defense against some Independent triple-option!? Almost as exciting
as a new pair of pajamas for Christmas. Although he was sacked only six times all season
in 376 pass attempts, Cal?s quarterback Nate Longstiff saw his yards per attempt
drop to 6.8 from 8.0 a year ago, with a TD-INT ratio of 16-13 representing another
decline from his sophomore season?s 24-13. One reason for the dip could be that RB
Marshawn Lynch, currently shredding tacklers in the NFL, meant a lot more to the Cal
offense than anybody realized. As the go-to back, Justin Forsett?s 186 pounds doesn?t
wear down defenses. Cal?s offense gained only 20.5 first downs per game this season
after gaining 20.2 last season, when the games were shorter. Air Force?s offense moved
the chains 21.2 times per game in ?07 with a quarterback Shawn Carney that has put
in four years in the system, tweaked and enhanced by first-season head coach Troy
Calhoun and staff this year. Along the way, Air Force improved its relentless and elusive
ground attack from 4.1 yards per carry up to 5.4. That kind of production keeps the
opposing defense on the field a lot and forces the opposing offense to be near-perfect
when it has the ball. Longstiff and Co. may get a boost if WR DeSean Jackson returns
after missing the Cal game, but Cal did lose five out of the last six with the NFL-eyeing
wideout on the field, and Air Force has a senior-laden secondary. AIR FORCE, 28-20.
CKO
UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game [Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31 in Boise]?Fresno?s top RB Mathews is injured;
blitzes of Tech interim HC Tenuta are relentless...
AUBURN (+2)
over Clemson [Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31 at Atlanta]?Tuberville?s defense, STs, sr. QB, SEC pedigree add up to small upset...
UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game [Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31 in Boise]?Fresno?s top RB Mathews is injured;
blitzes of Tech interim HC Tenuta are relentless...
AUBURN (+2)
over Clemson [Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31 at Atlanta]?Tuberville?s defense, STs, sr. QB, SEC pedigree add up to small upset...
THE MAX
Armed Forces Bowl @Fort Worth, TX
December 31, 2007 12:30 PM EST
California vs. Air Force
Opening Line: Cal ?4?, 53?
Current Line: Cal ?3?, 54
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This is a terrific test of the school of thought that
the break before bowl games is an interruption of
momentum. These teams are at polar opposites
from a performance standpoint heading down the
stretch. After reaching #2 in the BCS after a
fortuitous win at Oregon, Cal not only lost their next
game, they lost six of seven, failing to cover a single
game. Air Force lost consecutive road games to BYU
and Navy, then won six of their final seven, covering
each of the seven games. If you?re looking for
reversals of form in the bowls, here?s your game,
and you can go ahead and play 1-6 straight up, 0-7
against the spread over 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS.
What happened to Cal? Injuries killed Cal down the
stretch, and it would have been difficult to find a
unit more beat up than the Bears defense. Their
offense had fewer excuses. Chemistry was terrible.
DeSean Jackson, a Heisman candidate in
September, will probably go pro and a lot of people
in the Cal football program won?t shed any tears
over that. The defense gave up 239 yards rushing
to USC and then 334 yards rushing to Washington,
then the team lost to Stanford as a 13?-point
favorite. A weakness defending the run is not a
good sign when you?re playing Air Force.
Air Force?s running game sparked their great year.
Their strength is the running game, as the Flyboys
ran for 298 yards per game and had 33 touchdown
runs. Troy Calhoun did a great job in his first year
and the experienced QB Shaun Carney (45 career
games) and play-any-position runner Chad Hall
excelled. Hall averaged nearly 180 yards per game
in the Falcons last seven games. And there is no
question that a service academy will always bring a
top effort. Can you say the same about Cal?s effort?
After all, this team was once #2 in the BCS
standings and had much, much higher dreams than
New Year?s Eve at a bowl game none of them even
knew existed. After the Stanford loss Cal safety
Thomas DeCoud said, ?it's kind of too late to salvage
anything, but we just want to get to a bowl game
and end on the right note so the younger guys can
get this program back to where it was."
That hardly sounds like a motivated team, and Air
Force?s motivation is never, ever in question.
Obviously Cal has the better athletes, especially as
some of their players returned to health over the
break. But Air Force has the better football team,
and their motivation and crowd support will be
superior. No reversal of fortune projection for us.
We?ll take the points. Air Force by 4.
Sun Bowl @El Paso Texas
December 31, 2007, 2:00PM
South Florida vs. Oregon
Opening Line: USF ?6?, 51?
Current Line: USF ?6?, 52
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
When healthy, with their Heisman caliber Dennis
Dixon under center, the Oregon Ducks were
legitimately one of the nation?s best teams with
perhaps the nation?s best offense. However, that all
seems like a distant memory after the Ducks saw
their season go by the way side that Thursday night
in Arizona, when Dixon limped to the locker room
with a torn ACL. They were then shutout at UCLA
and lost a barnburner at home against rival Oregon
St. to end the season. They were down to their 4th
and 5th QBs to end the season after losing backup
Brady Leaf as well. I expect to see both Conner
Kempt and Justin Roper during this game, and it is
entirely possible that one of them takes a big step
forward practicing with the first unit during the
month of December. The QB position wasn?t the
only MASH unit for Oregon the second half of the
season, and several key players remain out for this
bowl game. Stud RB Jonathan Stewart, a future
first round NFL draft pick, will likely be leaned on
heavily in this game as the young QBs face a tough
South Florida defense.
The Bulls were another team (there were about 20
this season!) that had national championship
aspirations at one point, ranking as high as #2 in
the nation in mid-October. After losing a tough
game at Rutgers, they then went into the customary
swoon that many teams that start 5 or 6-0 go
through, dropping the next game in bad weather at
Uconn, and then losing at home to Cincinnati. They
rallied to win the final 3 SU/ATS. We?ll have plenty
of time to see both conferences by the time this
contest rolls around, and there is NFL type talent at
several positions on their roster. Their D forced a
nation?s best 41 TO?s, and if they can keep Stewart
under wraps, they should win this game as I?m not
sure the Ducks? young, inexperienced QB?s can
protect the ball against USF?s pressure and
ballhawking secondary.
The Pac-10 is the superior conference, but South
Florida is the healthier team with a better, more
proven QB in Matt Grothe. They are more excited to
be here than UO, as this is the most prestigious
bowl the program has ever played in. However,
teams that come into bowl games red-hot SU/ATS
often cool off in a big way, and there are a couple of
angles that suggest fading the Bulls here. We?ll
have plenty of time to see both conferences by the
time this contest rolls around, and like it?s
conference brother UCLA, we?ll need to monitor
Oregon?s injury situation as game time approaches.
Pass for now.
Humanitarian Bowl @Boise, Idaho
December 31, 2007 2:00 PM EST
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Opening Line: GT ?5, 55?
Current Line: GT ?5?, 54?
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This is a difficult situation for the Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets. Following their loss to cross-state
rival Georgia, the Yellow Jacket brass fired coach
Chan Gailey, who had made a bowl game in every
season on the Flats (was also fired after making the
playoffs both years with the Dallas Cowboys). Paul
Johnson comes in from Navy with a spread option
offense that is the complete opposite of what has
been done here over the years. The wide receivers
are considering transferring while Johnson convinces
them that he?ll pass the ball more with access to
BCS conference talent. But thoughts of transferring
are superceding the thoughts about this game.
And the players aren?t the only ones distracted. Jon
Tenuta hoped to get the head job, but now the
interim coach is likely entertaining high-paying
options elsewhere (Les Miles has spoken openly of
Tenuta becoming his new defensive coordinator to
replace Bo Pelini, now the coach at Nebraska.
Factor in that with all the ACC destinations in warm
weather climates, Georgia Tech finds themselves in
Boise, Idaho today, and you?ve got the perfect
recipe for a flat, disinterested performance.
Fresno State is a scrappy team that finds ways to
win. The Bulldogs pieced together a four game
winning streak in the middle of the season despite
being outgained in all four games. In the heart of
the season that can be seen as a sign of weakness.
But when analyzing how a team will do in a bowl
game against a distracted team, it is a sign of effort.
And there is no reason to question the effort that
Fresno State will give here. Pat Hill?s teams are
always ready for action against the big boys, with a
pointspread mark of 22-8-1 in their last 31 games
against BCS Conference teams. and there will be
focus, enthusiasm, aggression, and hard hitting on
the Smurf Turf today.
There?s some concern about Fresno?s pliable run
defense against Tech?s Tashard Choice, but the
Bulldogs improved down the stretch in that category
after some poor early performances and effort can
supercede what appear to be matchup advantages
on paper. Georgia Tech has already lost four times
as a favorite this season. Factor in their distraction
and there?s no reason not to look for more of the
same here. Fresno State beat a disinterested
Georgia Tech team in the 2002 Silicon Valley Classic
30-21 as 6?-point dog. Take the points with as the
hard-trying Bulldogs do it again. Fresno State by
3.
Music City Bowl @Nashville, Tennessee
December 31, 2007, 4:00 PM EST
Florida State vs. Kentucky
Opening Line: Kentucky -1, 56
Current Line: off the board
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This will go down as probably our best call of the
bowls, as we were way ahead of the curve with
information about the Florida State suspensions, and
were able to confirm an internet report passed along
to us and share it with you when ?1? was still
widely available. Now that the suspensions are
public currency the game has come down off the
board and depending on who are among the 20+
suspended players, there?s not telling what this line
comes back at. Though this is a slap in the face for
FSU, they made a nice move this week by locking in
Jimbo Fisher to be their coach designate when
Bowden decides to retire. Fisher is largely filling the
role right now, as Bobby hangs out in the tower and
on his golf cart.
While it is difficult to make a comparison since we
don?t know what FSU is bringing to the table, a few
notes about Kentucky. After his long no-INT streak,
Andre Woodson has come back to earth with 11
picks in the last 8 games. UK was 5-0 in September
but have won only twice since then. Big crowd
advantage for the Wildcats, as Nashville is right on
the interstate about 45 minutes from the state line
and an easy day trip from the Bluegrass. Be careful
with the scoring averages for the Wildcats, multiple
overtime games with LSU and Tennessee added 3
points per game to their offensive scoring average
and 2? points to their defensive average.
Impossible to make a call right now, but if you laid
the point and a half when we emailed you you?ll
have plenty of options by game day. Kentucky by
??????
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl @Atlanta, Georgia
December 31, 2007, 8:00 PM EST
Auburn vs. Clemson
Opening Line: Clemson ?1?, 47
Current Line: Clemson ?2?, 47
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
This ?Battle of the Tigers? is one of the better bowl
games out there as Southern bragging rights will be
on the line in the Georgia Dome. The Clemson
Tigers are making their record 8th Peach Bowl
appearance due to their late November home loss to
Boston College. Had the Tigers won that game they
would have played Virginia Tech in the ACC
Championship. Tommy Bowden was able to rally
the troops to a big revenge win over rival South
Carolina in the season finale. They feature one of
the nation?s most talented backfields with
underrated QB Cullen Harper (27/6 ratio!), as well
as future NFL RBs James Davis and CJ Spiller, both
of whom can take a simple off tackle run or dump
off pass 50+ yards on any given carry. On defense
their strength is a disruptive front seven that held
bowl opposition to only 3.2 yards per rush. On the
season, CU outyarded bowlers by nearly 100 yards
per game and holds a +1.2 net yards per play
advantage over these Auburn Tigers.
However, although the ACC was improved this
season, and took baby steps towards narrowing the
gap vs. the SEC, that gap definitely still exists. The
bowl caliber teams faced by Auburn are a tougher
group than those faced by Clemson, and the SEC
was deep this season, featuring many explosive
offenses. Despite drawing the two most talented
teams and offenses from the East in Georgia and
Florida on the road, as well as divisional foes LSU
and Arkansas on the road, the War Eagle defense
allowed only 4.7 ypplay in conference action, a
strong number indeed. Against teams that rely on
big plays out of the running game, Arkansas and
Florida, AU allowed 17 and 7 points respectively.
Much like last season, their problems were on
offense where they went for only 18 points per
game, and 4.3 ypplay against bowlers. Spread guru
Tony Franklin was hired last week to replace Al
Borges as offensive coordinator, but its uncertain
how much of his offense, a totally foreign attack,
will be implemented for this game.
Clemson has some statistical advantages in this
game, but Bowden is only 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in bowl
action, and I?m in no hurry to lay points into
Tuberville?s 20-13 ATS mark as an underdog, or an
SEC team with road wins at Arkansas and Florida
under their belt as well as a loss at LSU where they
led for about 50 minutes of the game. Instead, I?ll
play the under based on two strong, sub-300 yard
per game defenses, (I have Auburn?s rated as a top
10 unit) and AU?s offensive weaknesses and
uncertainties. 21-20 either way! Go under.
Armed Forces Bowl @Fort Worth, TX
December 31, 2007 12:30 PM EST
California vs. Air Force
Opening Line: Cal ?4?, 53?
Current Line: Cal ?3?, 54
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This is a terrific test of the school of thought that
the break before bowl games is an interruption of
momentum. These teams are at polar opposites
from a performance standpoint heading down the
stretch. After reaching #2 in the BCS after a
fortuitous win at Oregon, Cal not only lost their next
game, they lost six of seven, failing to cover a single
game. Air Force lost consecutive road games to BYU
and Navy, then won six of their final seven, covering
each of the seven games. If you?re looking for
reversals of form in the bowls, here?s your game,
and you can go ahead and play 1-6 straight up, 0-7
against the spread over 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS.
What happened to Cal? Injuries killed Cal down the
stretch, and it would have been difficult to find a
unit more beat up than the Bears defense. Their
offense had fewer excuses. Chemistry was terrible.
DeSean Jackson, a Heisman candidate in
September, will probably go pro and a lot of people
in the Cal football program won?t shed any tears
over that. The defense gave up 239 yards rushing
to USC and then 334 yards rushing to Washington,
then the team lost to Stanford as a 13?-point
favorite. A weakness defending the run is not a
good sign when you?re playing Air Force.
Air Force?s running game sparked their great year.
Their strength is the running game, as the Flyboys
ran for 298 yards per game and had 33 touchdown
runs. Troy Calhoun did a great job in his first year
and the experienced QB Shaun Carney (45 career
games) and play-any-position runner Chad Hall
excelled. Hall averaged nearly 180 yards per game
in the Falcons last seven games. And there is no
question that a service academy will always bring a
top effort. Can you say the same about Cal?s effort?
After all, this team was once #2 in the BCS
standings and had much, much higher dreams than
New Year?s Eve at a bowl game none of them even
knew existed. After the Stanford loss Cal safety
Thomas DeCoud said, ?it's kind of too late to salvage
anything, but we just want to get to a bowl game
and end on the right note so the younger guys can
get this program back to where it was."
That hardly sounds like a motivated team, and Air
Force?s motivation is never, ever in question.
Obviously Cal has the better athletes, especially as
some of their players returned to health over the
break. But Air Force has the better football team,
and their motivation and crowd support will be
superior. No reversal of fortune projection for us.
We?ll take the points. Air Force by 4.
Sun Bowl @El Paso Texas
December 31, 2007, 2:00PM
South Florida vs. Oregon
Opening Line: USF ?6?, 51?
Current Line: USF ?6?, 52
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
When healthy, with their Heisman caliber Dennis
Dixon under center, the Oregon Ducks were
legitimately one of the nation?s best teams with
perhaps the nation?s best offense. However, that all
seems like a distant memory after the Ducks saw
their season go by the way side that Thursday night
in Arizona, when Dixon limped to the locker room
with a torn ACL. They were then shutout at UCLA
and lost a barnburner at home against rival Oregon
St. to end the season. They were down to their 4th
and 5th QBs to end the season after losing backup
Brady Leaf as well. I expect to see both Conner
Kempt and Justin Roper during this game, and it is
entirely possible that one of them takes a big step
forward practicing with the first unit during the
month of December. The QB position wasn?t the
only MASH unit for Oregon the second half of the
season, and several key players remain out for this
bowl game. Stud RB Jonathan Stewart, a future
first round NFL draft pick, will likely be leaned on
heavily in this game as the young QBs face a tough
South Florida defense.
The Bulls were another team (there were about 20
this season!) that had national championship
aspirations at one point, ranking as high as #2 in
the nation in mid-October. After losing a tough
game at Rutgers, they then went into the customary
swoon that many teams that start 5 or 6-0 go
through, dropping the next game in bad weather at
Uconn, and then losing at home to Cincinnati. They
rallied to win the final 3 SU/ATS. We?ll have plenty
of time to see both conferences by the time this
contest rolls around, and there is NFL type talent at
several positions on their roster. Their D forced a
nation?s best 41 TO?s, and if they can keep Stewart
under wraps, they should win this game as I?m not
sure the Ducks? young, inexperienced QB?s can
protect the ball against USF?s pressure and
ballhawking secondary.
The Pac-10 is the superior conference, but South
Florida is the healthier team with a better, more
proven QB in Matt Grothe. They are more excited to
be here than UO, as this is the most prestigious
bowl the program has ever played in. However,
teams that come into bowl games red-hot SU/ATS
often cool off in a big way, and there are a couple of
angles that suggest fading the Bulls here. We?ll
have plenty of time to see both conferences by the
time this contest rolls around, and like it?s
conference brother UCLA, we?ll need to monitor
Oregon?s injury situation as game time approaches.
Pass for now.
Humanitarian Bowl @Boise, Idaho
December 31, 2007 2:00 PM EST
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Opening Line: GT ?5, 55?
Current Line: GT ?5?, 54?
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This is a difficult situation for the Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets. Following their loss to cross-state
rival Georgia, the Yellow Jacket brass fired coach
Chan Gailey, who had made a bowl game in every
season on the Flats (was also fired after making the
playoffs both years with the Dallas Cowboys). Paul
Johnson comes in from Navy with a spread option
offense that is the complete opposite of what has
been done here over the years. The wide receivers
are considering transferring while Johnson convinces
them that he?ll pass the ball more with access to
BCS conference talent. But thoughts of transferring
are superceding the thoughts about this game.
And the players aren?t the only ones distracted. Jon
Tenuta hoped to get the head job, but now the
interim coach is likely entertaining high-paying
options elsewhere (Les Miles has spoken openly of
Tenuta becoming his new defensive coordinator to
replace Bo Pelini, now the coach at Nebraska.
Factor in that with all the ACC destinations in warm
weather climates, Georgia Tech finds themselves in
Boise, Idaho today, and you?ve got the perfect
recipe for a flat, disinterested performance.
Fresno State is a scrappy team that finds ways to
win. The Bulldogs pieced together a four game
winning streak in the middle of the season despite
being outgained in all four games. In the heart of
the season that can be seen as a sign of weakness.
But when analyzing how a team will do in a bowl
game against a distracted team, it is a sign of effort.
And there is no reason to question the effort that
Fresno State will give here. Pat Hill?s teams are
always ready for action against the big boys, with a
pointspread mark of 22-8-1 in their last 31 games
against BCS Conference teams. and there will be
focus, enthusiasm, aggression, and hard hitting on
the Smurf Turf today.
There?s some concern about Fresno?s pliable run
defense against Tech?s Tashard Choice, but the
Bulldogs improved down the stretch in that category
after some poor early performances and effort can
supercede what appear to be matchup advantages
on paper. Georgia Tech has already lost four times
as a favorite this season. Factor in their distraction
and there?s no reason not to look for more of the
same here. Fresno State beat a disinterested
Georgia Tech team in the 2002 Silicon Valley Classic
30-21 as 6?-point dog. Take the points with as the
hard-trying Bulldogs do it again. Fresno State by
3.
Music City Bowl @Nashville, Tennessee
December 31, 2007, 4:00 PM EST
Florida State vs. Kentucky
Opening Line: Kentucky -1, 56
Current Line: off the board
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This will go down as probably our best call of the
bowls, as we were way ahead of the curve with
information about the Florida State suspensions, and
were able to confirm an internet report passed along
to us and share it with you when ?1? was still
widely available. Now that the suspensions are
public currency the game has come down off the
board and depending on who are among the 20+
suspended players, there?s not telling what this line
comes back at. Though this is a slap in the face for
FSU, they made a nice move this week by locking in
Jimbo Fisher to be their coach designate when
Bowden decides to retire. Fisher is largely filling the
role right now, as Bobby hangs out in the tower and
on his golf cart.
While it is difficult to make a comparison since we
don?t know what FSU is bringing to the table, a few
notes about Kentucky. After his long no-INT streak,
Andre Woodson has come back to earth with 11
picks in the last 8 games. UK was 5-0 in September
but have won only twice since then. Big crowd
advantage for the Wildcats, as Nashville is right on
the interstate about 45 minutes from the state line
and an easy day trip from the Bluegrass. Be careful
with the scoring averages for the Wildcats, multiple
overtime games with LSU and Tennessee added 3
points per game to their offensive scoring average
and 2? points to their defensive average.
Impossible to make a call right now, but if you laid
the point and a half when we emailed you you?ll
have plenty of options by game day. Kentucky by
??????
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl @Atlanta, Georgia
December 31, 2007, 8:00 PM EST
Auburn vs. Clemson
Opening Line: Clemson ?1?, 47
Current Line: Clemson ?2?, 47
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
This ?Battle of the Tigers? is one of the better bowl
games out there as Southern bragging rights will be
on the line in the Georgia Dome. The Clemson
Tigers are making their record 8th Peach Bowl
appearance due to their late November home loss to
Boston College. Had the Tigers won that game they
would have played Virginia Tech in the ACC
Championship. Tommy Bowden was able to rally
the troops to a big revenge win over rival South
Carolina in the season finale. They feature one of
the nation?s most talented backfields with
underrated QB Cullen Harper (27/6 ratio!), as well
as future NFL RBs James Davis and CJ Spiller, both
of whom can take a simple off tackle run or dump
off pass 50+ yards on any given carry. On defense
their strength is a disruptive front seven that held
bowl opposition to only 3.2 yards per rush. On the
season, CU outyarded bowlers by nearly 100 yards
per game and holds a +1.2 net yards per play
advantage over these Auburn Tigers.
However, although the ACC was improved this
season, and took baby steps towards narrowing the
gap vs. the SEC, that gap definitely still exists. The
bowl caliber teams faced by Auburn are a tougher
group than those faced by Clemson, and the SEC
was deep this season, featuring many explosive
offenses. Despite drawing the two most talented
teams and offenses from the East in Georgia and
Florida on the road, as well as divisional foes LSU
and Arkansas on the road, the War Eagle defense
allowed only 4.7 ypplay in conference action, a
strong number indeed. Against teams that rely on
big plays out of the running game, Arkansas and
Florida, AU allowed 17 and 7 points respectively.
Much like last season, their problems were on
offense where they went for only 18 points per
game, and 4.3 ypplay against bowlers. Spread guru
Tony Franklin was hired last week to replace Al
Borges as offensive coordinator, but its uncertain
how much of his offense, a totally foreign attack,
will be implemented for this game.
Clemson has some statistical advantages in this
game, but Bowden is only 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in bowl
action, and I?m in no hurry to lay points into
Tuberville?s 20-13 ATS mark as an underdog, or an
SEC team with road wins at Arkansas and Florida
under their belt as well as a loss at LSU where they
led for about 50 minutes of the game. Instead, I?ll
play the under based on two strong, sub-300 yard
per game defenses, (I have Auburn?s rated as a top
10 unit) and AU?s offensive weaknesses and
uncertainties. 21-20 either way! Go under.
WINNING POINTS HOOPS:
*****BEST BET*****
*Xavier* over Kansas State by 18
The home team will have had a buffer game vs. slow-tempo Delaware State prior to
this, after two straight losses at Arizona State and home to Tennessee. Arizona State
shot 59% against them and Tennessee sprang a new kid who wreaked havoc inside
against them. K-State is a young team away from home on New Year?s Eve and the
Beasley kid dropped a publicized 40 points on a nobody last week. Senior guard Blake
left that game on crutches. XAVIER, 84-66.
*****BEST BET*****
*Xavier* over Kansas State by 18
The home team will have had a buffer game vs. slow-tempo Delaware State prior to
this, after two straight losses at Arizona State and home to Tennessee. Arizona State
shot 59% against them and Tennessee sprang a new kid who wreaked havoc inside
against them. K-State is a young team away from home on New Year?s Eve and the
Beasley kid dropped a publicized 40 points on a nobody last week. Senior guard Blake
left that game on crutches. XAVIER, 84-66.
U2 Giants and congrats on a great effort by your team. May they sink the Bucs this week...:00hour
C... I don't ASK for Ralph all the time btw...I POST his freebie and patiently WAIT and then HAMMER his pay plays thanks to the courtesy of guys like Eddie. I PAID for his service and posted it until I found it here for free. And IF it fails to show here any more....not only will I PAY again....I will share it like Eddie is to everyone here...regardless if they are obnoxious or appreciative. I don't discriminate....but I digress...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!...and thanks for posting...everyone!:mj07: :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie :SIB
And Q...I was just funnin whitcha and I think you knew that. I actually enjoy the enthusiasm different guys have for different cappers. Hell I might start playing Ryan myself. I haven't been following too close. Is he doing well of late. You would know for sure. Let us know. Thanks and Happy NY!
Dr. Boobs
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and they?ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech won?t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresno?s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and he?s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he won?t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.
Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.
Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 ? points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but they?ve never had a defense as bad as this year?s edition. I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isn?t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemson?s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Ford?s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.
Auburn?s offense doesn?t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemson?s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburn?s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I don?t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigers? defense - but I?ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.
With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburn?s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).
I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. I?ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.
Cal (-3 ?) vs Air Force: I lean slightly with Cal.
South Florida (-6 ?) vs Oregon: I lean with Oregon.
Kentucky (-3) vs Florida State: No Opinion at this time with Florida State on the verge of suspensions being handed out. At this point I?d pick Kentucky by 3 points.
Oklahoma State (-4) vs Indiana: I lean with Oklahoma State.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and they?ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech won?t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresno?s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and he?s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he won?t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.
Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.
Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 ? points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but they?ve never had a defense as bad as this year?s edition. I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isn?t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemson?s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Ford?s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.
Auburn?s offense doesn?t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemson?s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburn?s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I don?t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigers? defense - but I?ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.
With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburn?s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).
I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. I?ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.
Cal (-3 ?) vs Air Force: I lean slightly with Cal.
South Florida (-6 ?) vs Oregon: I lean with Oregon.
Kentucky (-3) vs Florida State: No Opinion at this time with Florida State on the verge of suspensions being handed out. At this point I?d pick Kentucky by 3 points.
Oklahoma State (-4) vs Indiana: I lean with Oklahoma State.
Northcoast Powersweep
Cal 38 Air Force 27 rating 2*
Oregon 21 South Florida 23 rating 2*
Fresno State 30 Georgia Tech 24 rating 4*
Florida State 31 Kentucky 24 rating 3*
Oklahoma State 38 Indiana 31 rating 1*
Clemson 19 Auburn 13 rating 2*
Cal 38 Air Force 27 rating 2*
Oregon 21 South Florida 23 rating 2*
Fresno State 30 Georgia Tech 24 rating 4*
Florida State 31 Kentucky 24 rating 3*
Oklahoma State 38 Indiana 31 rating 1*
Clemson 19 Auburn 13 rating 2*
Dave Malinsky
Free Play
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH FLORIDA over OREGON
We don?t mind laying less than a touchdown when the far better teams brings a much greater sense of purpose to a bowl game, and that is the case in this one. An emerging South Florida program that made the most of its bowl opportunity LY now has a chance to grab what will appear to them as a trophy win, despite the fact that it is literally nothing more than a ?Lame Duck? they are facing, and that passion will help to break this game wide open.
We are not sure if Oregon is indeed a bowl team right now either physically or mentally. So much of the early promise of this season was based on the superlative play of QB Dennis Dixon, and once he went down it changed them in so many ways. Not only were they not nearly as talented in an offense that is built around the QB making plays, but they lost heart as well. Once they lost the target of playing in a BCS game their fire went out down the stretch with three straight defeats, and there is little to suggest that this is the environment for them to turn it around. Now they are down to their fourth starting QB in as many games, with Justin Roper currently sitting atop the depth chart, but also dealing with a depleted WR corps that saw injuries take a major toll, which does not help Roper?s acclimation. And in terms of interest do not look for the fans to be of much help ? Oregon has sold only 2,200 tickets from its allotment, among the lowest of any team in any bowl this year. Considering Mike Bellotti?s ugly track record in these games, with an 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS tally the last five years, we do not expect anything special from the Ducks at all.
It is a much different story for the Bulls. There were quality wins over West Virginia and Auburn to continue the building process under Jim Leavitt, and down the stretch they exploded for 144 points in winning and covering the last three games, making plays from all areas. They bring a physical and balanced offense that can win the line of scrimmage against an ordinary Oregon defensive front that is hindered by injuries in the LB corps, and also an aggressive defense that came up with 41 takeaways this season, returning seven of them directly for touchdowns. They finished 7th in pass efficiency defense, 18th in rushing defense, and 3rd in tackles for loss, which is all bad news for the overmatched Roper, who will be forced into repeated mistakes.
Look for South Florida to be able to control the ball at will here, with Oregon not realizing how physical of a runner QB Matt Grothe is, and for an aggressive Bull defense to come up with some game-turning plays. It leads to an easy ATS win at this short line.
Big Six
6* - Auburn (+2.5)
Free Play
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH FLORIDA over OREGON
We don?t mind laying less than a touchdown when the far better teams brings a much greater sense of purpose to a bowl game, and that is the case in this one. An emerging South Florida program that made the most of its bowl opportunity LY now has a chance to grab what will appear to them as a trophy win, despite the fact that it is literally nothing more than a ?Lame Duck? they are facing, and that passion will help to break this game wide open.
We are not sure if Oregon is indeed a bowl team right now either physically or mentally. So much of the early promise of this season was based on the superlative play of QB Dennis Dixon, and once he went down it changed them in so many ways. Not only were they not nearly as talented in an offense that is built around the QB making plays, but they lost heart as well. Once they lost the target of playing in a BCS game their fire went out down the stretch with three straight defeats, and there is little to suggest that this is the environment for them to turn it around. Now they are down to their fourth starting QB in as many games, with Justin Roper currently sitting atop the depth chart, but also dealing with a depleted WR corps that saw injuries take a major toll, which does not help Roper?s acclimation. And in terms of interest do not look for the fans to be of much help ? Oregon has sold only 2,200 tickets from its allotment, among the lowest of any team in any bowl this year. Considering Mike Bellotti?s ugly track record in these games, with an 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS tally the last five years, we do not expect anything special from the Ducks at all.
It is a much different story for the Bulls. There were quality wins over West Virginia and Auburn to continue the building process under Jim Leavitt, and down the stretch they exploded for 144 points in winning and covering the last three games, making plays from all areas. They bring a physical and balanced offense that can win the line of scrimmage against an ordinary Oregon defensive front that is hindered by injuries in the LB corps, and also an aggressive defense that came up with 41 takeaways this season, returning seven of them directly for touchdowns. They finished 7th in pass efficiency defense, 18th in rushing defense, and 3rd in tackles for loss, which is all bad news for the overmatched Roper, who will be forced into repeated mistakes.
Look for South Florida to be able to control the ball at will here, with Oregon not realizing how physical of a runner QB Matt Grothe is, and for an aggressive Bull defense to come up with some game-turning plays. It leads to an easy ATS win at this short line.
Big Six
6* - Auburn (+2.5)
Ben Burns
Sunbowl Blowout
Under Ore/USF
Personal Favorite
Clemson
Dec GOM
Indiana
Div GOY
Jazz
NHL Best Bet
Flames
CBB Massacre
Texas A&M
Sunbowl Blowout
Under Ore/USF
Personal Favorite
Clemson
Dec GOM
Indiana
Div GOY
Jazz
NHL Best Bet
Flames
CBB Massacre
Texas A&M
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TOUTHOUSE
California vs. Air Force: Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force +3.5 (-110)
Monday Dec 31 ?07 12:30p
The California Golden Bears were a train-wreck coming down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games while going 0-7 against the spread, and they cannot be too thrilled about facing a disciplined Air Force Falcons team in the Armed Forces Bowl.
It is hard to believe that the Golden Bears were poised to become the top ranked team in the country two months ago, when they were ranked number two and gave away a home game to Oregon State on the same day that number one lost. California never did recover from that loss, and more disturbingly, it looked as if they just threw in the towel, losing to the likes of Stanford and Washington. In fact, their only win in the last seven games was by just three points at home vs. lowly Washington State.
Air Force quietly had a very nice season going 9-3 straight up, and they were very nice to their supporters going a scintillating 9-2 ATS. Oddly, while California lost its last seven games ATS, Air Force ended the season with a 7-0 ATS run! Now normally, that combination would give value to the Cal side, but that does not appear to be the case here, as the Golden Bears still appear to be getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers.
Finally, while Pac-10 underdogs have been great bets in bowl games lately, Pac-10 bowl favorites are just 9-16 ATS since 2000.
Air Force +3.5
Florida State +4.5 (-110)
Mon Dec 31 ?07 4:00p
Much has been made of the fact that the Florida State Seminoles have 36 players that are suspended for the Music City Bowl vs. the Kentucky Wildcats, but most of the suspended players are reserves, so this line move looks like an overreaction.
Sure, the Noles now have practically zero depth, but that is more of a concern over several games than it is for one bowl game at the end of the year. They did have one key suspension on defense in cornerback Patrick Robinson, who had six interceptions this season, but the other 10 starters remain in tact, and the only notable suspension on offense is that of backup quarterback Xavier Lee, who has been coming in for a few situational plays each game. That just means that starting quarterback Drew Weatherford won?t get any relief this game, but truth be told, he has actually been steady if not spectacular, with just one interception in 10 games.
Kentucky was having a dream season, and the were actually ranked in the top 10 at 6-1 after upsetting LSU, but the Wildcats promptly went out and lost four of their last five games to finish at 7-5. The problem down the stretch was the Kentucky defense, which allowed 45, 31, 24 and 52 points respectively in the four late-season losses.
Also in Florida State?s favor is the fact that ACC underdogs have been surprisingly excellent bets in bowl games, going a stunning 19-6, 76.0 percent against the spread since 2000!
Florida State +4.5
Sun Bowl : South Florida -6.0 (-105)
Monday Dec 31 ?07 2:00p
The Sun Bowl is by no means the venue either of these clubs felt they?d be this bowl season. Each at one point was ranked the #2 team in the country, yet each failed to hold onto that spot the following week. South Florida saw its hopes squashed when they paid Rutgers a visit and lost by a 30-27 final count in a wild and wacky contest. Oregon?s hopes to play in the National Championship were all but squashed in the desert when QB Dennis Dixon ripped apart his knee, and the Ducks went on to get embarrassed for the second year in a row to Arizona.Still, it was a very successful campaign for the SFL Bulls who won nine games for the second time under the watchful eye of Head Coach Jim Leavitt. A win here would give them double-digit wins for the first time in the programs history. QB Matt Grothe opened up many people?s eyes with his efforts throughout the regular season. He?s a dual threat that threw for 2473 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 13/12, and he also rushed for 850 yards and hit pay dirt 10 times. The offense exploded this season with him at the helm as the 36 PPG they averaged this season was 13-points higher than their average of a year ago.
If only Dixon didn?t hurt himself?.you?ll hear that a lot from the Duck faithful, but you do have to ask yourself what might have been if he didn?t screw his knee up against ASU on to have Arizona finish the job off. Their lone loss up until that point was against Cal in a game they handed away, and with the Top 10 in the polls changing on a weekly basis, they had an excellent opportunity to play in the BCS Championship Game with games against UCLA and Oregon State only left on the docket.
I question the Ducks mindset here greatly whereas South Florida is still looking to build the foundation of its young program that only started playing D1 A ball back in 2001. Lay the points?..
Chick-Fil-A-Bowl: Auburn +2.5
Mon Dec 31 ?07 7:30p
Auburn was a relatively boring, defense-first team this year, exactly the type of team that gets overlooked when bowl season comes around. The Tigers lacked a single marquee offensive playmaker in a conference loaded with them. QB Brandon Cox, a senior, threw only nine touchdown passes all year, and the Tigers finished with the 107th ranked passing offense in the country. And leading rusher Ben Tate split carries with Brad Lester and Mario Fennin, leaving Auburn without a 1000 yard rusher either. In short, this team didn?t impress the betting public very much, giving us value supporting them here as an underdog against an inferior team from a weaker conference.
Auburn?s defense was downright dominant all year. On the road, against Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Auburn held the Gators to their season low in both points and total yards, engineering the outright road upset. On the road, against Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden at Arkansas, the Razorbacks, too, were held to a season low in both yardage and points in an outright upset win for the Tigers. We?re talking about a defense that held five of their last seven opponents to ten points or less, the type of defense that should have little trouble shutting down this pedestrian Clemson attack.
Clemson dominated weak foes all year long, but in sharp contrast to Auburn, they did not fare well when stepping up in class. These Tigers were more like kitty-cats against their elite level foes, blasted at home by both Virginia Tech and Boston College, while being held to a single field goal in an ugly loss at Georgia Tech. And, unlike Auburn, Clemson did not fare well away from home against quality defenses. Tommy Bowden?s squad lost straight up as a double digit favorite against Kentucky in their bowl game last year. Expect a similar result this time around.
Take Auburn.
California vs. Air Force: Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force +3.5 (-110)
Monday Dec 31 ?07 12:30p
The California Golden Bears were a train-wreck coming down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games while going 0-7 against the spread, and they cannot be too thrilled about facing a disciplined Air Force Falcons team in the Armed Forces Bowl.
It is hard to believe that the Golden Bears were poised to become the top ranked team in the country two months ago, when they were ranked number two and gave away a home game to Oregon State on the same day that number one lost. California never did recover from that loss, and more disturbingly, it looked as if they just threw in the towel, losing to the likes of Stanford and Washington. In fact, their only win in the last seven games was by just three points at home vs. lowly Washington State.
Air Force quietly had a very nice season going 9-3 straight up, and they were very nice to their supporters going a scintillating 9-2 ATS. Oddly, while California lost its last seven games ATS, Air Force ended the season with a 7-0 ATS run! Now normally, that combination would give value to the Cal side, but that does not appear to be the case here, as the Golden Bears still appear to be getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers.
Finally, while Pac-10 underdogs have been great bets in bowl games lately, Pac-10 bowl favorites are just 9-16 ATS since 2000.
Air Force +3.5
Florida State +4.5 (-110)
Mon Dec 31 ?07 4:00p
Much has been made of the fact that the Florida State Seminoles have 36 players that are suspended for the Music City Bowl vs. the Kentucky Wildcats, but most of the suspended players are reserves, so this line move looks like an overreaction.
Sure, the Noles now have practically zero depth, but that is more of a concern over several games than it is for one bowl game at the end of the year. They did have one key suspension on defense in cornerback Patrick Robinson, who had six interceptions this season, but the other 10 starters remain in tact, and the only notable suspension on offense is that of backup quarterback Xavier Lee, who has been coming in for a few situational plays each game. That just means that starting quarterback Drew Weatherford won?t get any relief this game, but truth be told, he has actually been steady if not spectacular, with just one interception in 10 games.
Kentucky was having a dream season, and the were actually ranked in the top 10 at 6-1 after upsetting LSU, but the Wildcats promptly went out and lost four of their last five games to finish at 7-5. The problem down the stretch was the Kentucky defense, which allowed 45, 31, 24 and 52 points respectively in the four late-season losses.
Also in Florida State?s favor is the fact that ACC underdogs have been surprisingly excellent bets in bowl games, going a stunning 19-6, 76.0 percent against the spread since 2000!
Florida State +4.5
Sun Bowl : South Florida -6.0 (-105)
Monday Dec 31 ?07 2:00p
The Sun Bowl is by no means the venue either of these clubs felt they?d be this bowl season. Each at one point was ranked the #2 team in the country, yet each failed to hold onto that spot the following week. South Florida saw its hopes squashed when they paid Rutgers a visit and lost by a 30-27 final count in a wild and wacky contest. Oregon?s hopes to play in the National Championship were all but squashed in the desert when QB Dennis Dixon ripped apart his knee, and the Ducks went on to get embarrassed for the second year in a row to Arizona.Still, it was a very successful campaign for the SFL Bulls who won nine games for the second time under the watchful eye of Head Coach Jim Leavitt. A win here would give them double-digit wins for the first time in the programs history. QB Matt Grothe opened up many people?s eyes with his efforts throughout the regular season. He?s a dual threat that threw for 2473 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 13/12, and he also rushed for 850 yards and hit pay dirt 10 times. The offense exploded this season with him at the helm as the 36 PPG they averaged this season was 13-points higher than their average of a year ago.
If only Dixon didn?t hurt himself?.you?ll hear that a lot from the Duck faithful, but you do have to ask yourself what might have been if he didn?t screw his knee up against ASU on to have Arizona finish the job off. Their lone loss up until that point was against Cal in a game they handed away, and with the Top 10 in the polls changing on a weekly basis, they had an excellent opportunity to play in the BCS Championship Game with games against UCLA and Oregon State only left on the docket.
I question the Ducks mindset here greatly whereas South Florida is still looking to build the foundation of its young program that only started playing D1 A ball back in 2001. Lay the points?..
Chick-Fil-A-Bowl: Auburn +2.5
Mon Dec 31 ?07 7:30p
Auburn was a relatively boring, defense-first team this year, exactly the type of team that gets overlooked when bowl season comes around. The Tigers lacked a single marquee offensive playmaker in a conference loaded with them. QB Brandon Cox, a senior, threw only nine touchdown passes all year, and the Tigers finished with the 107th ranked passing offense in the country. And leading rusher Ben Tate split carries with Brad Lester and Mario Fennin, leaving Auburn without a 1000 yard rusher either. In short, this team didn?t impress the betting public very much, giving us value supporting them here as an underdog against an inferior team from a weaker conference.
Auburn?s defense was downright dominant all year. On the road, against Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Auburn held the Gators to their season low in both points and total yards, engineering the outright road upset. On the road, against Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden at Arkansas, the Razorbacks, too, were held to a season low in both yardage and points in an outright upset win for the Tigers. We?re talking about a defense that held five of their last seven opponents to ten points or less, the type of defense that should have little trouble shutting down this pedestrian Clemson attack.
Clemson dominated weak foes all year long, but in sharp contrast to Auburn, they did not fare well when stepping up in class. These Tigers were more like kitty-cats against their elite level foes, blasted at home by both Virginia Tech and Boston College, while being held to a single field goal in an ugly loss at Georgia Tech. And, unlike Auburn, Clemson did not fare well away from home against quality defenses. Tommy Bowden?s squad lost straight up as a double digit favorite against Kentucky in their bowl game last year. Expect a similar result this time around.
Take Auburn.