ETHAN LAW
AIR FORCE (9-3) vs CALIFORNIA (6-6)
This is the kind of match-up I absolutely love because I really try to go ?inside the head? of the odds maker and the betting public to which they are often trying to deceive. I wanted to say that because ?in the dark? Air Force is the obvious selection! There is no question about this as the public notices the results week in and week out and the results show how one team (Air Force) would be classified as very ?hot? going into this match-up, while the other team would be classified as very cold (California). Indeed, coming into the ?Armed Forces Bowl?, a game that ?if perception couldn?t get any more one sided? has a bowl team that is actually part of the Armed Forces (irony?) has an Air Force team that has won three straight and six of its last seven games. Overall Air Force is an impressive (9-3 SU & 9-2 ATS) with an offense averaging an impressive 27 points per game, on 294 yards rushing and 120 passing. On the defensive side of the ball, their ?on paper? (we will discuss more about this below) stats are equally impressive as they are allowing opposing offensive just over 19 points per game this season. On the season, Air Force was just 3-3 SU & ATS away from home and lost to BYU (31-6), Navy (31-20) and New Mexico (34-31), giving up a whopping 320 passing yards to BYU the only team among those three with a dangerous passing attack. In stark contrast to Air Forces impressive 6-1 streak, California comes into this game on a miserable 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS run after being No. 2 in the nation earlier in the season. Indeed, the Golden Bear (6-6 SU & 3-9 ATS) came into the season with national championship hopes under head coach Jeff Tedford as they started the season on a tear going 5-0 with wins against nationally ranked Tennessee (45-31) Oregon (31-24), and the likes of Colorado State (34-28), Louisiana Tech (42-12) and Arizona (45-27). On the season their balanced offense averages 28 points, 149 yards rushing, 217 passing per game behind junior quarterback Nate Longshore (2,544 yards, 59%, 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions), and running back Justin Forsett (1,406 yards, 5 yards per carry, 13 touchdowns). Longshore was out for the 31-28 loss to Oregon State that started this losing streak and has not been the same since his return, as he has throw 11 interceptions the last 6 games. California is also perhaps one of their more shocking losses in the programs recent history in their last game of the season when they lost 20-13 to rival Stanford.
Before we get to the crux as to why we are backing the California Golden Bears on Monday, I do feel compelled to tell you about the absolutely miserable technical trends we will have to buck in order to get the SU & ATS win. Unfortunately, California comes into this contest with some of the worst technical data I have seen in quit some time, even worse then the trends I saw in the Texas game that nobody appeared to like. For starters, California is a miserable 1-11 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 years and is a perfectly horrible 0-7 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the same span. If that couldn?t get any worse, The Bears are also 0-7 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games this season and are 2-11 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons! Even in this situation, the loss to Stanford historically hurts our chances because California is 7-20 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. our resident trend guru mark Lawrence chimes in to give us even more terrible information when he tells us that California 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 against bowl opponents on their schedule. Meanwhile, Air Force has all of the favorable trends going for them as the service academies are a stellar 20-5 ATS in bowls as underdogs. Oh boy! So as you can see, not only does Air Force come into this game as the ?better/hotter team? from the publics perspective, any traditional handicapping ideology would also favor Air force as a selection, which is why I anticipate them being a very popular selection among the public and service touts alike.
So I guess the big question is?.if everything is pointing to Air Force, why am I backing California? To answer that question briefly, I will turn your attention to what I originally said in the Texas analysis, in a game which virtually all of my competitors picked Arizona State. Very selectively have I laid the chalk in the bowl season (only 2 selections this bowl season) but from a fundamental analysis, we have California domination. Similar to Texas, California entered this season ranked among the nation's top five teams and their opponent Air Force was nowhere to be found in the top 25 preseason selections. Why? Simply put, California has the better athletes on the field when these teams match-up and they own unit-on-unit fundamental match-up advantages on BOTH sides of the football. Indeed, at one point in the season this was also a California team that ranked No 2 in the NCAA and beat a then ranked Oregon team that had already beaten the likes of Michigan, Fresno State, Houston, USC and Arizona State all teams who are bowling and some of arguably the best teams in the nation. They also started the season with a win over Tennessee who in turn beat Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas again all teams in bowls and all teams on a different level the Air Force. Granted, Air Force has been impressive with their 6-1 run, but one can hardly lay to much credibility into wins over UNLV Colorado State, Wyoming, Army, Notre Dame and San Diego State teams who were a combined 20-52 on the season! Although I would not classify the Falcons schedule as ?easy? but when compared to the likes of California, the contrast in strength of schedule is alarming. As stated above, although the box scores will show that ?on paper? Air Force averaged 29 points per game and 419 yards of total offense and 19 point per game on defense against all opponents this season, those numbers were significantly different when they match-up up against opponents who are in bowl games this season (Utah, BYU, TCU, Navy and New Mexico). Indeed, against those aforementioned ?bowl teams? on their schedule they yielded 25 points per game on 351 total yards, while their offense had a dramatic decline to just 19 points per game (10 less) and 351 yards per game, which is a pretty shocking difference. The 351 yards per game their defense is giving up, will probably be the major difference in this match-up. It should also be noted that Air Force played only one top #20 team this season (BYU) and lost that game by a whopping 31-6 margin. Now they must try and stop the California offensive juggernaut that has averaged 28 points per game this season and one that has averaged 399 yards of total offense. Interestingly, California was actually able to move the ball better against the better teams on their schedule as they did against the weaker teams, something that cannot be said for Air Force. On the season California averaged 399 yards of total offense and 28 points per game on 5.2 yards per play overall, and a nearly identical 27 points, 401 yards, and 5.1 yards per play against bowl foes. Again it cannot be stressed that those were against some of the best defenses in the nation in USC, Oregon and Tennessee.
From a motivational standpoint, this game is a little harder to read as this is the first time Air Force has been to a bowl since 2002, while perception is that California is disappointed to be in this bowl contest. However, with such a monumental collapse to close the season California needs a win here for recruiting and needs to get their fans looking forward to next season. A large part of their collapse at the end of this season was due to some injuries, but the layoff will help get their players healthy and they can refocus their efforts. As expected, the public has been backing the underdog Air Force at a 52% clip and the line has moved against the flow of the money and has moved to 4.5. The public backing an ?underdog? in this spot is not surprising because California does come into this as (without question) the coldest team in the nation. However, as you will recall California ended last season in a similar fashion going 0-5 ATS until going out and absolutely destroying Texas A&M 45-10. Of note, three years ago when the Bears traveled to Air Force, they put up 56 points and 573 yards and a similar result wouldn?t surprise me here as the Falcons will be overmatched against this speedy and athletic California team. Air Force will get some yards on the ground, but California?s air attack should do well against a slow Falcon secondary and can name their score ?if they want to?. If all else fails take solace in the fact that California is an impressive 14-3 ATS as chalk of 3.5-10 points under Jeff Tedford, winning by an average of 24.4 points per game! Lay it!
Verdict: California 34, Air Force 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CALIFORNIA -4.5
NCAA BOWL OPINIONS
OREGON +6.5 (ADDED)
GEORGIA TECH -6 (ADDED)
