Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon:
Drew Gordon:
1. 300,000♦ Fresno State
2. 50,000♦ South Florida
1. Fresno State- Several strong reasons to like the Bulldogs in today?s Humanitarian Bowl, but let?s start with Georgia Tech?s coaching situation. Chan Gailey is gone, but his successor, Paul Johnson, isn?t coaching the bowl game. Rather, it?ll be John Tenuta, the Jackets well-known defensive coordinator doing a one and done head coaching job? Can you say ?Lame Duck!? It remains to be seen just how motivated Tenuta can get his troops, when he?s got LSU's Les Miles courting him left and right.
Georgia Tech?s biggest issue is keeping pace with a Fresno State offense that can and will score points, averaging 35 ppg on 469 total yards over their last 3 games. Besides Tashard Choice and the run game, the Yellow Jackets cupboard is bare. G-Tech ranks 102nd in the NCAA in passing, thanks to some piss-poor quarterbacking by Taylor Bennett (completing just 49% of his passes).
The Bulldogs QB Tom Brandstater, on the other hand, is enjoying a breakout year, completing 61% of his passes, while tossing 14 TDs and just 5 picks. He has a knack for steeping up in big games, like he did against Kansas State, where he completed 23 of 29 passes for 313 yards and 2 TDs en route to a 45-29 home win. He?s complemented by a running game that uses the platoon system very effectively, alternating between backs seamlessly. Fresno State has one of the most balanced offenses in the country, passing for 202 yards/game, while rushing for 204 yards/game. Worried about Tenuta?s blitz packages? Don?t worry too much, this Bulldogs O-line surrendered only 18 sacks on the season.
Finally, let?s look at the trends, as coach Pat Hill is 4-0 ATS as a bowl underdog, including their 2002 win over Georgia Tech in the Silicon Valley Bowl. Georgia Tech meanwhile is just 1-6-1 ATS over their last 8 games as a favorite. Look guys, on one side you have a team that?s excited to be here, playing damn good football (Win over Kansas State was impressive), and will have a strong crowd edge in Boise (G-Tech doesn?t travel well). While on the other side, you?ve got a disappointed team, led by a lame duck coach and a QB that couldn?t hit the broad side of a barn! It wouldn?t surprise me in the least if the Bulldogs won outright, but we?ll take the points regardless, and grab the cash with Fresno State.
Take Fresno State plus the points over Georgia Tech as your top-rated play of the day.
2. South Florida- Say what you will about the Ducks, but as soon as QB Dennis Dixon went down, everything changed. They tried Brady Leaf in his stead, but that clearly didn't work. Now they're not sure which red-shirt freshman is going to get the call against this ultra-aggrssive, ultra-quick Bulls defense. Let me make it easy for you: it doesn't matter and here's why:
The Ducks have been forced to completetly scale back their offense, and pound away with RB Jonathan Stewart again and again. This strategy hasn't worked over their last 3 games, averaging only 18 ppg on 316 total yards (0-3 SUATS), and it won't work this afternoon either. Bulls are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, and you can ask Central Florida Kevin Smith (18 carries for 55 yards) or West Virginia's Steve Slaton (13 carries for 54 yards) how good this South Florida run defense is!
On the other side of the ball, you've got to like what you're seeing from Matt Grothe, who's completed 68% of his passes or better over his last 3 games, tossing 4 TDs and 2 picks, and most importantly going 3-0 SUATS over that stretch. He's may not be as fast or as polished a passer as Dixon, but he still averages 4.6 yards per carry and has 10 rushing TDs on the season. He should have little trouble against a Ducks defense that's struggling right now, allowing 29 ppg over their last 3.
Bottom line, it all comes down to the Ducks inability to get anything done on offense. It keeps their defense on the field longer, it keeps the ball in Grothe hands longer, and in the end it will cost them this bowl game. Bulls roll!
Take South Florida comfortably over Oregon in this afternoon's Sun Bowl.
Tonight's Game...
1. 50,000♦ Clemson
1. Clemson- Both teams in this game feature stout defenses, but I have serious reservations about Auburn's offense, which has looked less-than-average of late, mustering 24 ppg on just 290 yards of total offense. In order to keep pace with Cullen Harper and RBs Davis and Spiller, Auburn is going to need to have one of its best offensive days in recent memory, and I just don't see that happening against this Clemson defense.
True, Clemson is dealing with some significant suspensions, including LBs Watkins and Billie. However, they still have a lot of defensive firepower, including DE Merling & a strong secondary led by their safeties, Clemons and Hamlin. If Clemson were playing a school that could put up points in a hurry, then we would need to reconsider this play. But as it stands with the suspensions, Auburn will still have trouble scoring in this one.
Finally, let's consider some past history, as we all remember Clemson's last Bowl game, when Kentucky beat them outright 28-20 as 11'-point favorites! Make no mistake, coach Bowden remembers that day well, and he'll have his team out for redemption in this one.
Bottom line, while running on this Auburn stop-unit maybe tough to do, QB Cullen Harper has been dissecting defenses all season long, and he'll do it again tonight. Auburn offensive deficiencies mean they simply cannot play from behind, and I suspect that's exactly where they'll be playing from in this contest. Look for Clemson to get the solid win and cover tonight in Atlanta.
Take Clemson over Auburn in tonight's Chik-Fil-A Bowl.
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon:
Drew Gordon:
1. 300,000♦ Fresno State
2. 50,000♦ South Florida
1. Fresno State- Several strong reasons to like the Bulldogs in today?s Humanitarian Bowl, but let?s start with Georgia Tech?s coaching situation. Chan Gailey is gone, but his successor, Paul Johnson, isn?t coaching the bowl game. Rather, it?ll be John Tenuta, the Jackets well-known defensive coordinator doing a one and done head coaching job? Can you say ?Lame Duck!? It remains to be seen just how motivated Tenuta can get his troops, when he?s got LSU's Les Miles courting him left and right.
Georgia Tech?s biggest issue is keeping pace with a Fresno State offense that can and will score points, averaging 35 ppg on 469 total yards over their last 3 games. Besides Tashard Choice and the run game, the Yellow Jackets cupboard is bare. G-Tech ranks 102nd in the NCAA in passing, thanks to some piss-poor quarterbacking by Taylor Bennett (completing just 49% of his passes).
The Bulldogs QB Tom Brandstater, on the other hand, is enjoying a breakout year, completing 61% of his passes, while tossing 14 TDs and just 5 picks. He has a knack for steeping up in big games, like he did against Kansas State, where he completed 23 of 29 passes for 313 yards and 2 TDs en route to a 45-29 home win. He?s complemented by a running game that uses the platoon system very effectively, alternating between backs seamlessly. Fresno State has one of the most balanced offenses in the country, passing for 202 yards/game, while rushing for 204 yards/game. Worried about Tenuta?s blitz packages? Don?t worry too much, this Bulldogs O-line surrendered only 18 sacks on the season.
Finally, let?s look at the trends, as coach Pat Hill is 4-0 ATS as a bowl underdog, including their 2002 win over Georgia Tech in the Silicon Valley Bowl. Georgia Tech meanwhile is just 1-6-1 ATS over their last 8 games as a favorite. Look guys, on one side you have a team that?s excited to be here, playing damn good football (Win over Kansas State was impressive), and will have a strong crowd edge in Boise (G-Tech doesn?t travel well). While on the other side, you?ve got a disappointed team, led by a lame duck coach and a QB that couldn?t hit the broad side of a barn! It wouldn?t surprise me in the least if the Bulldogs won outright, but we?ll take the points regardless, and grab the cash with Fresno State.
Take Fresno State plus the points over Georgia Tech as your top-rated play of the day.
2. South Florida- Say what you will about the Ducks, but as soon as QB Dennis Dixon went down, everything changed. They tried Brady Leaf in his stead, but that clearly didn't work. Now they're not sure which red-shirt freshman is going to get the call against this ultra-aggrssive, ultra-quick Bulls defense. Let me make it easy for you: it doesn't matter and here's why:
The Ducks have been forced to completetly scale back their offense, and pound away with RB Jonathan Stewart again and again. This strategy hasn't worked over their last 3 games, averaging only 18 ppg on 316 total yards (0-3 SUATS), and it won't work this afternoon either. Bulls are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, and you can ask Central Florida Kevin Smith (18 carries for 55 yards) or West Virginia's Steve Slaton (13 carries for 54 yards) how good this South Florida run defense is!
On the other side of the ball, you've got to like what you're seeing from Matt Grothe, who's completed 68% of his passes or better over his last 3 games, tossing 4 TDs and 2 picks, and most importantly going 3-0 SUATS over that stretch. He's may not be as fast or as polished a passer as Dixon, but he still averages 4.6 yards per carry and has 10 rushing TDs on the season. He should have little trouble against a Ducks defense that's struggling right now, allowing 29 ppg over their last 3.
Bottom line, it all comes down to the Ducks inability to get anything done on offense. It keeps their defense on the field longer, it keeps the ball in Grothe hands longer, and in the end it will cost them this bowl game. Bulls roll!
Take South Florida comfortably over Oregon in this afternoon's Sun Bowl.
Tonight's Game...
1. 50,000♦ Clemson
1. Clemson- Both teams in this game feature stout defenses, but I have serious reservations about Auburn's offense, which has looked less-than-average of late, mustering 24 ppg on just 290 yards of total offense. In order to keep pace with Cullen Harper and RBs Davis and Spiller, Auburn is going to need to have one of its best offensive days in recent memory, and I just don't see that happening against this Clemson defense.
True, Clemson is dealing with some significant suspensions, including LBs Watkins and Billie. However, they still have a lot of defensive firepower, including DE Merling & a strong secondary led by their safeties, Clemons and Hamlin. If Clemson were playing a school that could put up points in a hurry, then we would need to reconsider this play. But as it stands with the suspensions, Auburn will still have trouble scoring in this one.
Finally, let's consider some past history, as we all remember Clemson's last Bowl game, when Kentucky beat them outright 28-20 as 11'-point favorites! Make no mistake, coach Bowden remembers that day well, and he'll have his team out for redemption in this one.
Bottom line, while running on this Auburn stop-unit maybe tough to do, QB Cullen Harper has been dissecting defenses all season long, and he'll do it again tonight. Auburn offensive deficiencies mean they simply cannot play from behind, and I suspect that's exactly where they'll be playing from in this contest. Look for Clemson to get the solid win and cover tonight in Atlanta.
Take Clemson over Auburn in tonight's Chik-Fil-A Bowl.
