Drew Gordon
Monday Picks:
1. 200,000♦ Bears
2. 50,000♦ Hawks
3. 50,000♦ Tulane
1. Bears- There's no doubt the Bears have been a disappointment this season, but underestimate them at your own risk in this spot, and here's why:
First, anyone not named Grossman or Griese is starting. Clearly, neither one of those signal callers has been able to get this offense going, so the switch to Kyle Orton is a welcome change. Remember guys, he went 10-5 as the Bears starter in 2005, albeit with a much better defense, but give the kid some credit for doing it in his rookie season. Two years removed, he knows the system better and should do just fine against a terrible Vikings pass defense.
Second, while the Vikings have been surging over the last 4 games, averaging 34 ppg, let's not get carried away. This is still a young team, led by a highly inconsistent Tarvaris Jackson, and before we go laying double digit points with the Vikings, he's got to show more consistency, period. In fact, the last time the Bears were double-digit dogs was 3 years at Minnesota, where they covered 27-22.
Finally, consider the revenge factor, as these same Vikings beat the Bears 34-31 back on October 14th at Soldier Field. Besides the fact this game is being played on the Big Stage of Monday night, the Bears would like nothing more than to return the favor tonight on the road. Remember guys, the Bears actually have a better record on the road (3-4 SUATS) than at home (2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS).
Bottom line, look for Kyle Orton is inject some much needed intelligence into the Bears offense tonight, as too many stupid mistakes between Grossman and Griese have doomed this team time and again. With a chance to snap their losing streak, get some revenge, and keep their very slim playoff hopes alive, look for the Bears to deliver the payday in primetime tonight.
Take the Bears plus the points over the Vikings as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Hawks- Despite what you've seen the Jazz do at home this season, try and remember they're still a very average road team, going 5-9 SUATS away. In fact, this should come as no surprise, because the Jazz have been "road-weary" for some time now, going 9-23 ATS over their last 32 road games.
Atlanta meanwhile, after years of futility, is finally starting to look like a "real" team. Years of top draft picks, along with the acquistion of Joe Johnson from the Suns 3 seasons ago, have started to pay dividends, as you can no longer snicker at this Hawks team.
Injuries are also a factor, as both Harpring and Okur are out, leaving the Jazz's biggest edge, their frontline, with some depth issues. Williams and Boozer will still get theirs, but the Jazz will miss Okur's ability to spread the floor with his shooting and Harpring's toughness off the bench.
Finally, let's take the number into consideration. Despite the fact the Jazz have covered 9 straight against the Hawks, they're only slight favorites... What does that tell you? Oddsmakers aren't stupid, and we should take this number for what it is, a clear sign of Utah's futility on the road. In the end, it wouldn't surprise in the least if Atlanta won this game outright, but take the points regardless.
Take the Hawks plus the points over the Jazz in this NBA match up.
3. Tulane- Two average teams meet in this contest, but you've got to like the Green Wave at home tonight, as they face-off with a road-weary Sycamores squad in this one.
Like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde this Indiana State team has split personalties: One at home, where they're 4-0 and one on the road, where they're a winless 0-4. Make no mistake, we see the 0-4 version tonight, as the Sycamores aren't built to run with a Green Wave offense that excels at home, averaging 75 ppg on a solid 48% shooting. Compare that to Indiana State's pathetic road numbers, averaging 58 ppg on 39% shooting, and you start to see my reasoning behind this play.
Match ups also favor Tulane, as they've got some decent size with forwards Gomez and Louisme. Indiana State maybe guard-heavy, but they don't even have the best guard on the floor. That distinction goes to the Green Wave's Kevin Sims, who despite some woeful shooting, leads the team in scoring, assists, steals and minutes. Neither team has a true "go-to guy," but I'll take Tulane's balance over the Sycamores guard heavy rotation any day.
Bottom line, Indiana State has given us zero reason to believe they can get it done tonight on the road. Their offense is average overall, but becomes difficult to stomach when they travel. Not to mention they leave their defense back at home, allowing their opponents to shoot 49% on the road this season! End result: Another poor road effort from the Sycamores, as the Green Wave protect their house and grab the cash in this one!
Take Tulane comfortably over Indiana State in this college hoops match up.
