AL - ALL IN 1
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles plus the double-digits over the unbeaten Kansas Jayhawks. BC lost to KU in Lawrence, Kansas last season, so the Eagles play with revenge this afternoon. And, since 1990, revenging college home dogs of more than 6 points, with a winning record, are 53-26 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes off a SU/ATS win, provided our home dog has won at least 29 of its previous 40 home games. Boston College has won 33 of its 40 last 40 home games straight-up, and is 47-23 ATS as an underdog since Feb. 15, 2000, including 8-2 ATS at home, and 3-0 ATS vs. undefeated teams. Take the points.
At 8 pm, our Horizon Conference Game of the Year is on the Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix minus the points over Wright State. Last year, the Raiders defeated UW-GB three times, including a 67-51 win in the conference tournament (played at Wright State's home gym). But over the past 10 years, .735 (or worse) college basketball teams are a perfect 18-0 ATS off a SU/ATS conference win, if they are playing with revenge from three losses in the previous season against a foe off a SU loss. With the Phoenix off a 78-52 win over Detroit on Thursday (moving their record to 8-5 on the season), and Wright State off a 75-64 loss, we'll play on Wisconsin Green Bay at home on Saturday night. Lay the points.
At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals plus the points over Rutgers. If you're going to lay a lot of points in a bowl game, you better have a good reason, as more often than not, these high-priced teams are unable to cover the tariff. And one factor which is a very strong indicator of when a big favorite will fail to cover is that team's result in its final regular season game. Indeed, since 1980, Bowl Favorites off a road loss to end the regular season are a dreadful 13% (3-20 ATS) if they're favored by more than a touchdown. Already this season, we've seen this situation come up three times, and all three times, the big favorite failed to cover (Boise State, Purdue, and Utah). With Rutgers off a regular season-ending loss at Louisville (41-38), we'll fade the Scarlet Knights on Saturday. Take Ball State.
At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Washington. Last week, Seattle lost 44-41 at Atlanta, and failed to cover as a 2-point favorite. The Redskins, on the other hand, won and covered their fourth straight game, with a 27-6 blowout win over Dallas. Now, Washington must travel up to the Pacific Northwest to take on the same Seahawk team that knocked them out of the Playoffs two years ago, 20-10. Although Washington was very impressive last week (and the three previous weeks), it's actually a negative indicator to come into a playoff game off a 20-point (or greater) blowout win, and especially if you have to take to the road, and you're not a GREAT team. Consider that, since 1980, there have been 10 teams with a won/loss percentage of .700 or less that have won a game by 20+ points, and have then had to travel to play a Playoff game vs. a foe off a pointspread loss. None of those ten teams covered the spread. Seattle has been dominant at home at QWest Field. This season, Seattle has won seven, and lost just once, and since 2002, Seattle is 34-7 at home, trailing only New England (35-7) for having the best home record. Part of the reason for Seattle's success at home is the crowd noise. The QWest Field's cantilever roofs trap the noise inside the stadium, and the noise generated by Seattle's fans has contributed to 68 false start penalties by a road team over the last three seasons, which easily leads the league (the Vikings, a dome team, are a distant second with 57 false starts by an opponent). After the 2006 playoff game, Washington's running back, Mike Sellers, said QWest Field was so loud, the Redskins couldn't even hear themselves talk. Let's take the homestanding Seahawks here over Washington.
At 8 pm, our NFL Wild Card Game of the Year is on the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points over Jacksonville, as Mike Tomlin's men fall into two systems of mine that are 100% perfect ATS since 1980. Let's take a look at one of them. This angle is a perfect 9-0 ATS and what we want to do is play on any home team in its first playoff game of the season, if it has revenge, and also lost its last regular season game straight up. The Steelers fell to the Ravens last Sunday, and also play this game with revenge, having lost to Jacksonville at Heinz Field three weeks ago. In the media, the most common theme is that Jacksonville is playing "Pittsburgh Steeler-like football" more than the Steelers. Not surprisingly, even the bettors are jumping on Jacksonville's bandwagon, and have moved this line a whopping 3.5 points thus far. This has created a lot of line value for Pittsburgh, and now that the Steelers are a home underdog, a 3rd system of mine comes into play, and that's to take any NFL Home Dog in the Wild Card round. These puppies are a solid 9-2 ATS since 1980. Pittsburgh may have lost Fast Willie Parker to injury, but Najeh Davenport is a very capable back-up, and at the end of the day, the Steelers' experience in playoff football will be the difference. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to play mistake-free football, and for the Steelers' defense to completely shut down Jacksonville's offense. Take Pittsburgh.
