Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon:
Tonight's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Jaguars
2. 50,000♦ Baylor
1. Jaguars- What has changed in the last 3 weeks that makes you believe the Steelers can win this game? Because all I see is negatives... The Steelers lost their star RB Willie Parker (at the time the league's leading rusher), 2nd string LT Max Starks (down to 3rd string LT Trai Essex), are still be without their best run-stuffing lineman in Aaron Smith, and while S Troy Polamalu will play, he is nowhere near 100%. In other words, if anything has changed, its the Steelers and their mounting injuries.
Its hard to ignore the fact the once feared Steelers run defense is struggling mightily, allowing 164 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry (absolutely unacceptable) over that span. If you can't stop the run against Jacksonville, you can't win, as we saw 3 weeks ago when Taylor/Jones-Drew rumbled for a combined 216 yards! Also, no longer considered a "game-manager," David Garrard can and will make the Steelers pay for overplaying the run.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's Najeh Davenport will have his work cut out for him, as this Jaguars run-defense is rock-solid, led by star DT Henderson. Davenport is a decent player, but he's not the home-run threat Parker was, and the Jaguars defense will benefit from that. Also, for all the talk about the Steelers O-line, did you know Roethlisberger was the second most sacked QB in the NFL this season (47 times), trailing only Detroit's Kitna... Not a good sign against an agressive and ball-hawking defense (CB Mathis and S Nelson are both excellent).
Bottom line, even with their full compliment of players, this would be a tough game for the Steelers, but where they are right now, missing so many key pieces, this is Jacksonville's game to lose. We've learned not to underesimate the Steelers over the years, but in this case, they are being beaten at their own game, as the Jaguars will pound the Steelers in submission on both sides of the ball tonight.
Take the Jaguars comfortably over the Steelers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Baylor- Got to like the Bears in this one, as Arkansas' inexperience under a new head coach Pelfrey shows up in this neutral court match up. While they've shown improvment, the Razorbacks still have a long way to go before we consider them consistent. Their recent loss to Appalachian State at home as 16'-point favorites is a perfect example. Despite turning the ball over 22 times, App. State shot 66% from the field to win outright 74-67 in the Razorbacks house no less!
Baylor on the other hand, has benefited from continuity and a veteran-laden roster, led by junior G Jerrells and his 14 ppg and nearly 4 assists/game. Their 4-guard attack makes it difficult for a frontcourt-heavy team like Arkansas to defend them, because their Bigs don't want to leave the paint. However, that plays right into the hands of this Bears team, as they tickle the twine to the tune of 48% from the field and 39% from 3-point!
While Arkansas's defensive numbers are good, they've been unimpressive when it comes to defending anywhere else but home. Ugly losses at Oklahoma, and against Providence on a neutral court, have shown the Razorbacks penchant for falling asleep when they're not protecting their own house. More of the same tonight, as Baylor will not stop coming at them.
Bottom line, while oddsmakers expected this game to be close, I couldn't disagree more. The Razorbacks are still learning, and their about to get a tough lesson from this Baylor squad... You cannot allow the intensity to drop off on the road, and that's exactly what happens to this Arkansas team tonight, as Baylor rolls in this one!
Take Baylor comfortably over Arkansas in this college hoops match up.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000♦ Redskins
2. 50,000♦ James Madison
1. Redskins- I'm the last person you'll hear talking about the abstract ideas of "destiny" and all that fluff, so don't look for any cliches from this 'Capper. What I will tell you is that no team has been more motivated or focused over the last 4 weeks of the regular season than the Washington Redskins (4-0 SUATS). You can call it whatever you like, but the fact of the matter is they will cover again this afternoon and here's why:
First and foremost, the Seahawks have become a one-dimensional team, a good-one, but still one-diemnsional. By doing so, they've made the job of the Redskins defense that much easier... Stop Hasselback and you stop the Seahawks. When I say no stop-unit has been more effective over their last 3 games than the Redskins, I mean it, allowing 12 ppg on just 251 total yards. Those stats didn't come against easy competition either, shutting down the Giants and Vikings on the road was impressive to say the least.
Second, I know everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop with Todd Collins, but the backup has given us zero indication he's ready to slow down anytime soon. He may not have the gun Jason Campbell has, but he's intimately more familiar with the Redskins offense, and has proven so, posting an outstanding 106 QB rating. Seattle's pressure defense will be tough to crack, but Collins quick decision making will make the difference.
Finally, the Redskins have something the Seahawks don't... A running game. Once considered the focal point of the offense, the pressure has been taken off Portis by an improved passing game, and he's responded well, rushing for an average of 102 yards per game with 4 TDs against 3 straight stout defenses. Seattle's defense has been average overall of late, allowing 21 ppg on 326 total yards over their last 3 (against some pretty bad teams - Carolina, Atlanta, and Baltimore).
Bottom line, the Redskins deliver the cash once again with another balanced effort on both sides of the ball. Seattle's decision to all but abandon the running game will come back to bite them in the ass this afternoon, as the Redskins defense tees off on Hasselback. End result: A solid cover, with the outright upset very possible.
Take the Redskins plus the points over the Seahawks in today's NFC Wildcard game.
2. James Madison- Let's make one thing clear here, if Hofstra's Antoine Agudio doesn't play or is severly hampered by his ankle injury, we could see James Madison win by double digits here. Even if he does play, one has to question his effectiveness on one bad leg, as the nation's 3rd leading scorer, he'll get plenty of attention from the Dukes defense.
These two teams couldn't be more different if they tried, as the Pride rely on Agudio to do everything (making his injury that much more difficult to overcome), while the Dukes rely on a balanced offense, featuring 5 players averaging more than 9 ppg. James Madison maybe on the road, but their offense travels well, scoring 78 ppg on 45% shooting away this season. Its not like they'll have to beat a tough Pride defense either, as Hofstra generously allows 75 ppg on their home floor!
Finally, let's talk numbers, as the Dukes are an impressive 7-1 ATS over their last 8 road games. They're alos 7-2 ATS over their last 9 games overall, making for a solid bet in this contest. Hofstra meanwhile, has lost 4 straight & 8 of their last 9, including a 77-74 home loss to such incredible competition as Stony Brook. Even with Agudio 100% healthy, this is a tough match up for a talent-shy Hofstra squad.
Bottom line, James Madison brings too much to the table in this one, while the Pride's cupboard is bare without a healthy Agudio. Granted, he'll most likely give it a go, but with his ankle day-to-day, anything could go wrong, and with the pressure defense he faces as the only real threat for Hofstra, he'll need both ankles to make this game competitive. You can't carry a team on one leg, and the Pride learn that the hard way this afternoon.
Take James Madison comfortably over Hofstra in this college hoops match up.
