SERVICE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY DECEMBER 23, 2007
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SERVICE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY 12/23
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
Mighty! Quinn
Philadelphia Rams..Panthers...Bills..Jets..Bears..Colts..KC..Pa ts..Jags..Wash..Cards..Seattle..49ers..Broncos
Boise - 10 1/2
:nono: :nono: :nono:
THE FAMOUS FADE
Philadelphia Rams..Panthers...Bills..Jets..Bears..Colts..KC..Pa ts..Jags..Wash..Cards..Seattle..49ers..Broncos
Boise - 10 1/2
:nono: :nono: :nono:
THE FAMOUS FADE
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PPP
Hawaii Bowl
5*E.Carolina
NFL
5*New Orleans Over
4*Cincinnati
4*San Fransisco
3*Detroit
3*Tennessee
3*Jacksonville under
3*Cincinnati over
Hawaii Bowl
5*E.Carolina
NFL
5*New Orleans Over
4*Cincinnati
4*San Fransisco
3*Detroit
3*Tennessee
3*Jacksonville under
3*Cincinnati over
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Ben Burns' AFC GAME OF THE YEAR!
I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. Its amazing what a few short months can do. Back in Week 2, on 9/16, I released my NFL "Shocker of the Year" on the Browns over the Bengals. At the time, the Browns were playing at home, yet were getting seven points. Judging by the abnormally high number of "how did you see that one coming" emails that I received, people genuinely did seem shocked when the Browns won outright. Three months later, which find themselves listed as home underdogs. There were several reasons that the Bengals were laying so many points for the September meeting. Cincinnati was coming off a decent season and a Week 1 win. Cleveland, on the other hand, was coming off another terrible year and had gotten crushed in Week 1. Those Week 1 results and past perception certainly played a role in creating that Week 2 line. However, the primary reason that the Bengals were favored by so many points was that on paper, they were the better team. While the Browns have had a great year, I still believe that the Bengals are the more talented team. I also haven't seen enough from the Browns on the road to warrant them laying points away from Cleveland; certainly not against an angry and talented instate rival which will be more than happy to damage their playoff hopes. The Browns are just 3-4 on the road and none of the three wins were impressive. They barely won at St. Louis when the Rams were really banged-up and struggling. They literally squeaked out a win at Baltimore (kick bounced off upright to force OT) and then won at New York vs. the 3-11 Jets. Overall, they've been outscored by a 26.6 to 25.9 margin in their seven road games, while getting outgained by more than 50 total yards per game. Conversely, the Bengals are 4-3 at home where they've outscored opponents by a 24.6 to 22.9 margin and outgained them by nearly 25 total yards per game. The Bengals have won three straight at home in this series and I feel that they've got something to prove. Playing their home finale, I expect the offense to exploit Cleveland's below average defense, leading to an outright victory. *AFC GOY
Ben Burns
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Bengals
49ers
Raiders/Jags under
Ben Burns' AFC GAME OF THE YEAR!
I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. Its amazing what a few short months can do. Back in Week 2, on 9/16, I released my NFL "Shocker of the Year" on the Browns over the Bengals. At the time, the Browns were playing at home, yet were getting seven points. Judging by the abnormally high number of "how did you see that one coming" emails that I received, people genuinely did seem shocked when the Browns won outright. Three months later, which find themselves listed as home underdogs. There were several reasons that the Bengals were laying so many points for the September meeting. Cincinnati was coming off a decent season and a Week 1 win. Cleveland, on the other hand, was coming off another terrible year and had gotten crushed in Week 1. Those Week 1 results and past perception certainly played a role in creating that Week 2 line. However, the primary reason that the Bengals were favored by so many points was that on paper, they were the better team. While the Browns have had a great year, I still believe that the Bengals are the more talented team. I also haven't seen enough from the Browns on the road to warrant them laying points away from Cleveland; certainly not against an angry and talented instate rival which will be more than happy to damage their playoff hopes. The Browns are just 3-4 on the road and none of the three wins were impressive. They barely won at St. Louis when the Rams were really banged-up and struggling. They literally squeaked out a win at Baltimore (kick bounced off upright to force OT) and then won at New York vs. the 3-11 Jets. Overall, they've been outscored by a 26.6 to 25.9 margin in their seven road games, while getting outgained by more than 50 total yards per game. Conversely, the Bengals are 4-3 at home where they've outscored opponents by a 24.6 to 22.9 margin and outgained them by nearly 25 total yards per game. The Bengals have won three straight at home in this series and I feel that they've got something to prove. Playing their home finale, I expect the offense to exploit Cleveland's below average defense, leading to an outright victory. *AFC GOY
Ben Burns
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bengals
49ers
Raiders/Jags under
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PhIL STEEL OF NORTHCOAST HAD TWO OF HIS TOP 3 BOWL SYSTEM PLAYS GO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHERN MISS. AND UCLA,TWO WINNERS // HIS 3RD TOP 3 BOWL SYSTEM PLAY GOES TODAY WITH EAST CAROLINA+10- !!
The Goldsheet Key Releases
***OVER the total DETROIT 31 - Kansas City 21?Yes, K.C. is 4-1 vs. the spread last 5 as a visitor. But will side with the Lions? greater firepower. Brodie Croyle (2 TDs, 2 ints. in last week?s loss to Tennessee) learning the ropes, but Chiefs disappointed defense has been cracking since the team?s bye week, allowing 5 of 7 opponents to score 24 points or more. Pass-oriented Lions 4-2- 1 vs. the spread in their home dome and 6-2 ?over? the total last 8 as host.
***JACKSONVILLE 38 - Oakland 13?Will JaMarcus Russell get his first start in this game? The big rookie might be able to help the Raiders more if he would join their terrible run defense on the road. Soft is not what you want to be vs. the rugged Jags, who out-rushed the Steelers 225 to 111 last week in the snow in Pittsburgh. And Oakland can?t count on many turnovers, as David Garrard has been picked off only two times TY.
***SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Tampa Bay 16?Does the surprisingly-effective performance of ex-Maryland QB Shaun Hill (where has Mike Nolan been hiding him?), who is 43 of 55 (78%) the last two weeks, portend bad things for Alex Smith? We?re not sure, but Hill does get rid of the ball on time, decisively, and accurately. And with the NFC South champ Bucs having little to play for, not too excited about laying points with T.B. Jon Gruden can be excused for doing a bit of juggling (including limiting snaps for QB Garcia) with playoffs looming.
HONORABLE MENTION
HOUSTON (+7) over Indianapolis (NFL)?Sage Rosenfels 3-0 as a starter; Colts holding out injured starters
for the playoffs...
BUFFALO (+3) vs. N.Y. Giants (NFL)?Bills 5-1 as home dog TY, with only loss to N.E.; Giants lose TE Shockey...
***OVER the total DETROIT 31 - Kansas City 21?Yes, K.C. is 4-1 vs. the spread last 5 as a visitor. But will side with the Lions? greater firepower. Brodie Croyle (2 TDs, 2 ints. in last week?s loss to Tennessee) learning the ropes, but Chiefs disappointed defense has been cracking since the team?s bye week, allowing 5 of 7 opponents to score 24 points or more. Pass-oriented Lions 4-2- 1 vs. the spread in their home dome and 6-2 ?over? the total last 8 as host.
***JACKSONVILLE 38 - Oakland 13?Will JaMarcus Russell get his first start in this game? The big rookie might be able to help the Raiders more if he would join their terrible run defense on the road. Soft is not what you want to be vs. the rugged Jags, who out-rushed the Steelers 225 to 111 last week in the snow in Pittsburgh. And Oakland can?t count on many turnovers, as David Garrard has been picked off only two times TY.
***SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Tampa Bay 16?Does the surprisingly-effective performance of ex-Maryland QB Shaun Hill (where has Mike Nolan been hiding him?), who is 43 of 55 (78%) the last two weeks, portend bad things for Alex Smith? We?re not sure, but Hill does get rid of the ball on time, decisively, and accurately. And with the NFC South champ Bucs having little to play for, not too excited about laying points with T.B. Jon Gruden can be excused for doing a bit of juggling (including limiting snaps for QB Garcia) with playoffs looming.
HONORABLE MENTION
HOUSTON (+7) over Indianapolis (NFL)?Sage Rosenfels 3-0 as a starter; Colts holding out injured starters
for the playoffs...
BUFFALO (+3) vs. N.Y. Giants (NFL)?Bills 5-1 as home dog TY, with only loss to N.E.; Giants lose TE Shockey...
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CKO
10 EAST CAROLINA over Boise State
Late Score Forecast: EAST CAROLINA 35 - Boise State 34
Hawaii Bowl at Honolulu, Hawaii (Sunday, December 23, 2007)
As a representative of the wild & wooly wars in the C-USA this season, East Carolina certainly no stranger to shootouts. The Pirate defense, big and deep up front to start the season, suffered lots of attrition, but is now healthier after several weeks off. And Skip Holtz? Pirate offense is capable of scoring against all but the best defenses. While ECU is 6-1 as a double-digit underdog, note that Boise?s magic often disappears when the Broncos lay double figures away from their blue-carpeted home (3-11 in that role). Boise players were superfocused for LY?s Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma; this year they are the ?hunted,? with HC Peterson promising they?re going to enjoy what the islands have to offer.
--HAWAII BOWL------------------------------------------------
EAST CAROLINA (7-5) vs. BOISE STATE (10-2)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
E.Carolina 12 7-5 7-5 30 30 171 207 47-25-20 146 290 43-14-24 +14 2.1 15.3
Boise St. 11 9-2 6-5 42 21 176 291 59-27-31 123 224 32-16-15 +3 5.2 19.0
Sunday, December 23 at Honolulu, HI (Field Turf
Boise State 35 - East Carolina 34?Boise State lost its opportunity to
capture its 6th straight WAC title and 2nd straight BCS bowl in disappointing 39-
27 setback at Hawaii in reg.-season finale. But Bronco players then
unanimously voted to go ?bowling? in Honolulu rather than be a host on its own
?blue carpet.? But this time, crafty 2nd-year HC Peterson (23-2, including
unforgettable 43-42 OT upset vs. Oklahoma in LY?s Fiesta Bowl) is rewarding
players by allowing them to ?discover new experiences,? including surfing,
before practices commence. And while BSU says it has a ?chip on its shoulder?
following that Warrior setback, Broncos will have no ?walk on the beach? vs.
ascending, athletic, opportunistic ECU (+14 TO margin) coming in with a
?winning? mindset after having the ?happy-to-be-here? attitude in 24-7 loss vs.
South Florida in Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham last season.
The uptempo, potent, well-designed BSU attack (42 ppg) is directed by
accurate sr. QB Tharp (68%, 28 TDP, 9 ints.), who is well-supported by speedy
RB Ian Johnson (1030 YR, 16 TDs) & stellar WR corps, featuring dynamic
wideout Childs (school-record 82 grabs). And while Bronco offense feasted on
a host of talent-shy, poor-tackling WAC defenses, don?t see it exploding vs.
mistake-producing (27 takeaways, 11 different defenders had ints.!), healthier
Pirate defense (difference-making 6-5, 277 DE Hands missed 8 games due to
shoulder injury and is expected back) that held its own (allowed just 3.9 ypc),
considering it faced six 1,000-yd. rushers, including the nation?s top 2 RBs,
UCF?s Kevin Smith & Tulane?s Matt Forte, who combined for only 267 yds. & 2
TDs. Meanwhile, ECU?s high-powered offense (35+ pts. in 6 of final 8 games;
25 rush, 20 pass TDs) has effectively incorporated a 2-QB system. Look for
dual-threat triggerman Pinkney (60%, 10 TDs, 253 YR), who alternated with
pocket-passing Kass (55%, 9 TDs, 4 ints.), to use his foot speed vs. good-notgreat
Bronco defense (21 ppg) that didn?t cope well vs. the two quality run-pass
QBs it faced; Washington?s Locker & Nevada?s Kaepernick combined for 699
total yards! And ECU arguably owns the most versatile, homerun threat on field
in electric RB/returner Chris Johnson (1200 YR, 496 receiving, 29 per KR, and
22 combined TDs).
Moreover, Pirates? 3rd-year mentor Skip Holtz is highly-profitable 16-5 in
underdog role (6-1 when getting DDs), while BSU is just 4-9 vs. number as TD+
favorite away from the ?blue carpet? since ?04. Yes, the odds are against the
Boise boys learning how to hang ten on a surfboard or covering the same
number on the gridiron vs. excited C-USA rep having ample time to become
acclimated following a grueling flight crossing 5 time zones.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING
10 EAST CAROLINA over Boise State
Late Score Forecast: EAST CAROLINA 35 - Boise State 34
Hawaii Bowl at Honolulu, Hawaii (Sunday, December 23, 2007)
As a representative of the wild & wooly wars in the C-USA this season, East Carolina certainly no stranger to shootouts. The Pirate defense, big and deep up front to start the season, suffered lots of attrition, but is now healthier after several weeks off. And Skip Holtz? Pirate offense is capable of scoring against all but the best defenses. While ECU is 6-1 as a double-digit underdog, note that Boise?s magic often disappears when the Broncos lay double figures away from their blue-carpeted home (3-11 in that role). Boise players were superfocused for LY?s Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma; this year they are the ?hunted,? with HC Peterson promising they?re going to enjoy what the islands have to offer.
--HAWAII BOWL------------------------------------------------
EAST CAROLINA (7-5) vs. BOISE STATE (10-2)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
E.Carolina 12 7-5 7-5 30 30 171 207 47-25-20 146 290 43-14-24 +14 2.1 15.3
Boise St. 11 9-2 6-5 42 21 176 291 59-27-31 123 224 32-16-15 +3 5.2 19.0
Sunday, December 23 at Honolulu, HI (Field Turf
Boise State 35 - East Carolina 34?Boise State lost its opportunity to
capture its 6th straight WAC title and 2nd straight BCS bowl in disappointing 39-
27 setback at Hawaii in reg.-season finale. But Bronco players then
unanimously voted to go ?bowling? in Honolulu rather than be a host on its own
?blue carpet.? But this time, crafty 2nd-year HC Peterson (23-2, including
unforgettable 43-42 OT upset vs. Oklahoma in LY?s Fiesta Bowl) is rewarding
players by allowing them to ?discover new experiences,? including surfing,
before practices commence. And while BSU says it has a ?chip on its shoulder?
following that Warrior setback, Broncos will have no ?walk on the beach? vs.
ascending, athletic, opportunistic ECU (+14 TO margin) coming in with a
?winning? mindset after having the ?happy-to-be-here? attitude in 24-7 loss vs.
South Florida in Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham last season.
The uptempo, potent, well-designed BSU attack (42 ppg) is directed by
accurate sr. QB Tharp (68%, 28 TDP, 9 ints.), who is well-supported by speedy
RB Ian Johnson (1030 YR, 16 TDs) & stellar WR corps, featuring dynamic
wideout Childs (school-record 82 grabs). And while Bronco offense feasted on
a host of talent-shy, poor-tackling WAC defenses, don?t see it exploding vs.
mistake-producing (27 takeaways, 11 different defenders had ints.!), healthier
Pirate defense (difference-making 6-5, 277 DE Hands missed 8 games due to
shoulder injury and is expected back) that held its own (allowed just 3.9 ypc),
considering it faced six 1,000-yd. rushers, including the nation?s top 2 RBs,
UCF?s Kevin Smith & Tulane?s Matt Forte, who combined for only 267 yds. & 2
TDs. Meanwhile, ECU?s high-powered offense (35+ pts. in 6 of final 8 games;
25 rush, 20 pass TDs) has effectively incorporated a 2-QB system. Look for
dual-threat triggerman Pinkney (60%, 10 TDs, 253 YR), who alternated with
pocket-passing Kass (55%, 9 TDs, 4 ints.), to use his foot speed vs. good-notgreat
Bronco defense (21 ppg) that didn?t cope well vs. the two quality run-pass
QBs it faced; Washington?s Locker & Nevada?s Kaepernick combined for 699
total yards! And ECU arguably owns the most versatile, homerun threat on field
in electric RB/returner Chris Johnson (1200 YR, 496 receiving, 29 per KR, and
22 combined TDs).
Moreover, Pirates? 3rd-year mentor Skip Holtz is highly-profitable 16-5 in
underdog role (6-1 when getting DDs), while BSU is just 4-9 vs. number as TD+
favorite away from the ?blue carpet? since ?04. Yes, the odds are against the
Boise boys learning how to hang ten on a surfboard or covering the same
number on the gridiron vs. excited C-USA rep having ample time to become
acclimated following a grueling flight crossing 5 time zones.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING
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Vegas Hotsheet
HAWAII BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
341 E Carolina 30
342 Boise St 45
Boise St. -10?
Free Pick: Over 70
HAWAII BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
341 E Carolina 30
342 Boise St 45
Boise St. -10?
Free Pick: Over 70
The Platinum Sheet
Best Bets
(Football)
12/23/07 (325) NY GIANTS at (326) BUFFALO
Anyone following my plays this season has probably realized that I have a good read on
when the Giants will or won?t make for a good play. After Sunday night?s loss to Washington, most of the football world has turned against the G-Men, figuring they?ll do anything they can to give up their wildcard spot. The way I look at this game against Buffalo though, it is the Bills who will be the much more deflated of the two teams. They lost a huge game last week, eliminating any chance at making the postseason. Plus, if you compare the raw strength indicators of these teams, you?ll find two different level clubs. In point differential, New York is +0.5 PPG, Buffalo -5.5. In ******* Outplay Factor Rating, New York is -0.1, Buffalo is -4.0. The Giants need to win, they play well on the road, and are the better team. They?ll get their win here.
Play: NY Giants -3
12/23/07 (331) WASHINGTON at (332) MINNESOTA
Two straight solid performances by Joe Gibbs? club has me believing that they could have what it takes to make the postseason yet. The team that took the fififield on Sunday night in New York was a focused bunch that seemed to be channeling its emotion from the whole Sean Taylor tragedy into positive energy. With that extra motivation in mind, the Redskins will head to Minnesota with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance.
Speaking of balance, I believe favored teams have to possess it on offense. Minnesota has still not shown the ability to move the ball through the air and in big games, that weakness tends to come to the forefront. If you need one more thing, perhaps this trend illustrating the Skins? prowess as a road underdog might do it. WASHINGTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score
was WASHINGTON 20.0, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 1*). This one goes down to the wire. I?ll take the points.
Play: Washington +7
12/23/07 (339) TAMPA BAY at (340) SAN FRANCISCO
Ok. Now that everyone is convinced of how much San Francisco is turned around because it was able to beat a weak-minded Cincinnati club, it is the perfect time to fade the 49ers. One game does not make a season, and had it not been for that upset on Saturday, we are probably staring at a line in the -9 to -9.5 range for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are playing solid football, no disputing that. In fact, defensively, they have only had one ?blip on the radar?, in their last nine games, that coming at home against Washington when they allowed 412 yards but benefitted from six turnovers. Other
than that, opponents have been lucky to sniff 250 yards of offense. Now, with the opponent being the league?s #32 offense, a team with numbers so dreadful I can?t recall similar, I would expect the Bucs to come up with a big effort again. Other than being on the road, I don?t see any reason why Tampa shouldn?t manhandle the 49ers the same way they did the Falcons.
Play: Tampa Bay -7
Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Sunday, December 23rd - 8:00 PM - (341) E CAROLINA vs. (342) BOISE ST
On paper, this game seems like a potential mismatch. Boise State, led by star RB Ian Johnson, had another stellar 10 win season. As usual, they were dominant at home on the ?Smurf Turf?, logging a 7-0 season. Offensively, even with first year starter Taylor Tharp, they were very efficient, scoring 42.7 PPG and gaining 477 YPG. East Carolina finished 2nd in Conference USA?s East division with a 6-2 record. Like most of the other Conference USA teams this year, they were plagued by defensive problems (436 YPG allowed). Despite the mismatch in certain stat categories, there are reasons for hope for the Pirates. First, they are double digit underdogs in a December Bowl game ? a winning system historically. Second, Boise State is clearly not the same dominant team
on the road as they are at home. The Broncos were just 3-2 away from home, scoring 9 fewer PPG than their season average. Third, the WAC conference was down this season, especially at the bottom of the conference. WAC teams were an awful 1-18 in non-conference road games, worst in the nation. Finally, Boise State returns to the scene of their biggest disappointment this season ? a loss to Hawaii with the WAC title on the line. The Hawaii Bowl has to be viewed as a disappointment and a letdown is certainly possible.
Play: E Carolina +10.5
Best Bets
(Football)
12/23/07 (325) NY GIANTS at (326) BUFFALO
Anyone following my plays this season has probably realized that I have a good read on
when the Giants will or won?t make for a good play. After Sunday night?s loss to Washington, most of the football world has turned against the G-Men, figuring they?ll do anything they can to give up their wildcard spot. The way I look at this game against Buffalo though, it is the Bills who will be the much more deflated of the two teams. They lost a huge game last week, eliminating any chance at making the postseason. Plus, if you compare the raw strength indicators of these teams, you?ll find two different level clubs. In point differential, New York is +0.5 PPG, Buffalo -5.5. In ******* Outplay Factor Rating, New York is -0.1, Buffalo is -4.0. The Giants need to win, they play well on the road, and are the better team. They?ll get their win here.
Play: NY Giants -3
12/23/07 (331) WASHINGTON at (332) MINNESOTA
Two straight solid performances by Joe Gibbs? club has me believing that they could have what it takes to make the postseason yet. The team that took the fififield on Sunday night in New York was a focused bunch that seemed to be channeling its emotion from the whole Sean Taylor tragedy into positive energy. With that extra motivation in mind, the Redskins will head to Minnesota with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance.
Speaking of balance, I believe favored teams have to possess it on offense. Minnesota has still not shown the ability to move the ball through the air and in big games, that weakness tends to come to the forefront. If you need one more thing, perhaps this trend illustrating the Skins? prowess as a road underdog might do it. WASHINGTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score
was WASHINGTON 20.0, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 1*). This one goes down to the wire. I?ll take the points.
Play: Washington +7
12/23/07 (339) TAMPA BAY at (340) SAN FRANCISCO
Ok. Now that everyone is convinced of how much San Francisco is turned around because it was able to beat a weak-minded Cincinnati club, it is the perfect time to fade the 49ers. One game does not make a season, and had it not been for that upset on Saturday, we are probably staring at a line in the -9 to -9.5 range for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are playing solid football, no disputing that. In fact, defensively, they have only had one ?blip on the radar?, in their last nine games, that coming at home against Washington when they allowed 412 yards but benefitted from six turnovers. Other
than that, opponents have been lucky to sniff 250 yards of offense. Now, with the opponent being the league?s #32 offense, a team with numbers so dreadful I can?t recall similar, I would expect the Bucs to come up with a big effort again. Other than being on the road, I don?t see any reason why Tampa shouldn?t manhandle the 49ers the same way they did the Falcons.
Play: Tampa Bay -7
Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Sunday, December 23rd - 8:00 PM - (341) E CAROLINA vs. (342) BOISE ST
On paper, this game seems like a potential mismatch. Boise State, led by star RB Ian Johnson, had another stellar 10 win season. As usual, they were dominant at home on the ?Smurf Turf?, logging a 7-0 season. Offensively, even with first year starter Taylor Tharp, they were very efficient, scoring 42.7 PPG and gaining 477 YPG. East Carolina finished 2nd in Conference USA?s East division with a 6-2 record. Like most of the other Conference USA teams this year, they were plagued by defensive problems (436 YPG allowed). Despite the mismatch in certain stat categories, there are reasons for hope for the Pirates. First, they are double digit underdogs in a December Bowl game ? a winning system historically. Second, Boise State is clearly not the same dominant team
on the road as they are at home. The Broncos were just 3-2 away from home, scoring 9 fewer PPG than their season average. Third, the WAC conference was down this season, especially at the bottom of the conference. WAC teams were an awful 1-18 in non-conference road games, worst in the nation. Finally, Boise State returns to the scene of their biggest disappointment this season ? a loss to Hawaii with the WAC title on the line. The Hawaii Bowl has to be viewed as a disappointment and a letdown is certainly possible.
Play: E Carolina +10.5
The Platinum Sheet
Best Bets
(Hoops)
12/23/2007 (501) LA LAKERS at (502) NEW YORK
A Sunday matinee affair brings Kobe and the Lakers to Manhattan, where they will surely be favored by a signififificant margin against the wretched Knicks. However,
that in itself is cause for concern for those hoping to back Los Angeles: LA LAKERS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.1, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 1*). Giving up 105.6 PPG on the road, the Lakers don?t
make for a real strong road favorite. In addition, the Knicks have seemingly always embraced the chance to fill it up with the higher scoring teams in the league: NEW YORK is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996. The average score was NEW YORK 100.1, OPPONENT
102.2 - (Rating = 2*). The Knicks swept the Lakers a year ago. It?s tough to see them getting blown out in this one.
Play: New York +7.5
12/23/2007 (511) VIRGINIA TECH at (512) WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest was projected to be one of, if not THE, worst team in the ACC this season. Noting their shooting woes in the early going, there?s nothing I?ve seen yet to believe that is still not the case. Now in the conference opener for both clubs, why not fade the worst team? The Deacons are shooting 40% from the floor, less than 30% from the field, and 63.5% from the line, all figures ranked in the bottom 25% of all teams. Their ******* Outplay Factor Rating as of Monday was +3.3. Tech?s meanwhile, was +12.6, sharing the same won-lost mark against a schedule that rated an average of six points better on the ******* Power Rating scale. Tech?s shoots 46.6% on offense and holds opponents to 39.4% on defense, thus earning the descriptive ?excellent team?. WAKE FOREST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
Play: Virginia Tech +1.5
Best Bets
(Hoops)
12/23/2007 (501) LA LAKERS at (502) NEW YORK
A Sunday matinee affair brings Kobe and the Lakers to Manhattan, where they will surely be favored by a signififificant margin against the wretched Knicks. However,
that in itself is cause for concern for those hoping to back Los Angeles: LA LAKERS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.1, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 1*). Giving up 105.6 PPG on the road, the Lakers don?t
make for a real strong road favorite. In addition, the Knicks have seemingly always embraced the chance to fill it up with the higher scoring teams in the league: NEW YORK is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996. The average score was NEW YORK 100.1, OPPONENT
102.2 - (Rating = 2*). The Knicks swept the Lakers a year ago. It?s tough to see them getting blown out in this one.
Play: New York +7.5
12/23/2007 (511) VIRGINIA TECH at (512) WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest was projected to be one of, if not THE, worst team in the ACC this season. Noting their shooting woes in the early going, there?s nothing I?ve seen yet to believe that is still not the case. Now in the conference opener for both clubs, why not fade the worst team? The Deacons are shooting 40% from the floor, less than 30% from the field, and 63.5% from the line, all figures ranked in the bottom 25% of all teams. Their ******* Outplay Factor Rating as of Monday was +3.3. Tech?s meanwhile, was +12.6, sharing the same won-lost mark against a schedule that rated an average of six points better on the ******* Power Rating scale. Tech?s shoots 46.6% on offense and holds opponents to 39.4% on defense, thus earning the descriptive ?excellent team?. WAKE FOREST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
Play: Virginia Tech +1.5
Gator's NFL "Tech" Game of the Week
Each week Gator releases his Top "Technical" Game of the Week, in football, basketball and baseball.
NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection (8-5 +2.50):
Game: Oakland Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Technical Set: Play Over NFL team against the total with a good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, 51-20 Over since 1983. OAKLAND is 38-12 OVER when they allow 6 or more total yards per play since 1992, 25-11 OVER when they allow 5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992. JACKSONVILLE is 6-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 7-0 OVER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games this season, 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in the second half of the season this season, 10-1 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season, 11-3 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons, 16-6 OVER after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Over the past three seasons when teams are coming off a game with the Colts they are 17-2 Over in their next game. The last five seasons have seen teams that are installed as home favorites and are off six or more Overs are 10-2 Over in their next game. The Jags are 7-0 Over their last seven times to post.
Selection: OAKLAND / JACKSONVILLE OVER 38.5
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
Game: Kansas City vs. Detroit
System: Play AGAINST a home favorite with a total over 37 points off a non-shutout su/ats loss as an underdog of 4+ points, rushing for 50 yards or less in its last game, 1-25 ATS since 1994.
Selection: KANSAS CITY +5
Gator's 70% Situational Report
NFL (Sunday)
Game: Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
Play On NFL home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games, 30-7 ATS since 1983.
SELECTION: CINCINNATI +2.5
Each week Gator releases his Top "Technical" Game of the Week, in football, basketball and baseball.
NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection (8-5 +2.50):
Game: Oakland Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Technical Set: Play Over NFL team against the total with a good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, 51-20 Over since 1983. OAKLAND is 38-12 OVER when they allow 6 or more total yards per play since 1992, 25-11 OVER when they allow 5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992. JACKSONVILLE is 6-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 7-0 OVER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games this season, 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in the second half of the season this season, 10-1 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season, 11-3 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons, 16-6 OVER after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Over the past three seasons when teams are coming off a game with the Colts they are 17-2 Over in their next game. The last five seasons have seen teams that are installed as home favorites and are off six or more Overs are 10-2 Over in their next game. The Jags are 7-0 Over their last seven times to post.
Selection: OAKLAND / JACKSONVILLE OVER 38.5
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
Game: Kansas City vs. Detroit
System: Play AGAINST a home favorite with a total over 37 points off a non-shutout su/ats loss as an underdog of 4+ points, rushing for 50 yards or less in its last game, 1-25 ATS since 1994.
Selection: KANSAS CITY +5
Gator's 70% Situational Report
NFL (Sunday)
Game: Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
Play On NFL home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games, 30-7 ATS since 1983.
SELECTION: CINCINNATI +2.5
LeRoy's Contest:
Nick Bogdanovich
342 Boise St. -10.5
336 Seahawks -10
316 Bengals +3
328 Jaguars -13
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
Best Bet:
314 BYU -6.5 - LOSER
Jorge Gonzalez
318 Bears +8.5
316 Bengals +3
326 Bills +3
314 BYU -6.5 - LOSER
330 Saints -3
319 Texans +7
Best Bet:
324 Patriots -21.5
Doc
314 BYU -6.5 - LOSER
316 Bengals +3
331 Redskins +6.5
328 Jaguars -13
329 Eagles +3
340 49ers +6
Best Bet:
322 Lions OV43
Paul Sonner
311 Nevada +2.5 - LOSER
341 E. Car +10.5
319 Texans +7
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
331 Redskins UN41
Best Bet:
324 Patriots OV45
__________________
Nick Bogdanovich
342 Boise St. -10.5
336 Seahawks -10
316 Bengals +3
328 Jaguars -13
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
Best Bet:
314 BYU -6.5 - LOSER
Jorge Gonzalez
318 Bears +8.5
316 Bengals +3
326 Bills +3
314 BYU -6.5 - LOSER
330 Saints -3
319 Texans +7
Best Bet:
324 Patriots -21.5
Doc
314 BYU -6.5 - LOSER
316 Bengals +3
331 Redskins +6.5
328 Jaguars -13
329 Eagles +3
340 49ers +6
Best Bet:
322 Lions OV43
Paul Sonner
311 Nevada +2.5 - LOSER
341 E. Car +10.5
319 Texans +7
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
331 Redskins UN41
Best Bet:
324 Patriots OV45
__________________
Jim Rich-- (Fade) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(104-117)
Giants under 32 1/2
Pack over 39 1/2
Titans over 37
Brownies over 43 1/2
Texans under 45
Bucs under 36 1/2
Jags over 38 1/2
Miami under 45
Saints under 47
Vikes over 40 1/2
(104-117)
Giants under 32 1/2
Pack over 39 1/2
Titans over 37
Brownies over 43 1/2
Texans under 45
Bucs under 36 1/2
Jags over 38 1/2
Miami under 45
Saints under 47
Vikes over 40 1/2
EROCKMONEY
(1.) Minnesota (-6.5) v. Washington
The Vikings struggled Monday night against rivals Chicago and it's unlikely they play that poorly in back to back home games. The Vikings are excellent against the runand the Skins offense is nothing if they can't move the ball on the ground. The Vikings play much better and charge into the playoffs.
Pick: Vikings by 10
(2.) Pittsburgh (-7.5) at St. Louis winner
The Steelers are in the midst of a late season slide and need this game really bad. St. Louis is just what the doctor ordered. The Steelers are trying to aviod a first round mathcuo with J-ville and possible second round matchup with New England. Cleveland and Indiapolis would be much easier road to the AFC title. Believe it or not, the Browns can still pass Pittsburgh for the division.
Pick: Steelers by 10
(3.) Chicago (+9) v. Green Bay
This is far to great a rivalry for a nine point spread in Chicago. This series is the most heated rivalry in the NFL and these teams and fans really don't like one another. This is the Bears Super Bowl and they play their best against the hated Packers. The Bears would love nothing more than to screw the Pack out of home field advantage.
Pick: Bears by 6
(Blowout of the Week) Tennessee (-8) v. NY Jets
The Titans are still alive in the playoffs hunt and are due for a great performance at home. The Titans will stuff the run and Young and company will pound the ball all game versus the weak Jets defense. The Jets played very well last week and won't be up two weeks in a row.
Pick: Titans by 14
(Upset Special) Cincinnati (+3) v. Cleveland
See Chicago - Green Bay. The Bengals have been horrid this season and Lewis should get canned after the season. This inter-state rivalry is very important and the players and fans know it. Add in the fact the Bengals could help knock the Browns out of the playoffs and this one should be interesting. Cleveland has struggled on the road and I expect the Bengals to pull the upset.
Pick: Bengals by 13
(Under 47) Philadelphia at New Orleans
The Eagles have a top five defense this season and could easily have 9 or 10 wins this season. The Saints have a high powered offense, but I expect the Birds to defense to play a solid game and keep the points down.
(Under 43.5) Dallas at Carolina -WINNER
Carolina will play well at home on national television and look to keep the Cowboys offense off the field. Romo is banged up and the Cowboys offense hasn't been clicking lately. I expect a lower scoring affair in this one.
(1.) Minnesota (-6.5) v. Washington
The Vikings struggled Monday night against rivals Chicago and it's unlikely they play that poorly in back to back home games. The Vikings are excellent against the runand the Skins offense is nothing if they can't move the ball on the ground. The Vikings play much better and charge into the playoffs.
Pick: Vikings by 10
(2.) Pittsburgh (-7.5) at St. Louis winner
The Steelers are in the midst of a late season slide and need this game really bad. St. Louis is just what the doctor ordered. The Steelers are trying to aviod a first round mathcuo with J-ville and possible second round matchup with New England. Cleveland and Indiapolis would be much easier road to the AFC title. Believe it or not, the Browns can still pass Pittsburgh for the division.
Pick: Steelers by 10
(3.) Chicago (+9) v. Green Bay
This is far to great a rivalry for a nine point spread in Chicago. This series is the most heated rivalry in the NFL and these teams and fans really don't like one another. This is the Bears Super Bowl and they play their best against the hated Packers. The Bears would love nothing more than to screw the Pack out of home field advantage.
Pick: Bears by 6
(Blowout of the Week) Tennessee (-8) v. NY Jets
The Titans are still alive in the playoffs hunt and are due for a great performance at home. The Titans will stuff the run and Young and company will pound the ball all game versus the weak Jets defense. The Jets played very well last week and won't be up two weeks in a row.
Pick: Titans by 14
(Upset Special) Cincinnati (+3) v. Cleveland
See Chicago - Green Bay. The Bengals have been horrid this season and Lewis should get canned after the season. This inter-state rivalry is very important and the players and fans know it. Add in the fact the Bengals could help knock the Browns out of the playoffs and this one should be interesting. Cleveland has struggled on the road and I expect the Bengals to pull the upset.
Pick: Bengals by 13
(Under 47) Philadelphia at New Orleans
The Eagles have a top five defense this season and could easily have 9 or 10 wins this season. The Saints have a high powered offense, but I expect the Birds to defense to play a solid game and keep the points down.
(Under 43.5) Dallas at Carolina -WINNER
Carolina will play well at home on national television and look to keep the Cowboys offense off the field. Romo is banged up and the Cowboys offense hasn't been clicking lately. I expect a lower scoring affair in this one.
PSYCHIC-----------------------------------------------
paid & confirmed
2 units Jacksonville -13
2 units San Francisco +6
2 units Detroit -4.5
3 units Cincinnati +3
3 units Az/Atl OVER 43.5
5 units New England -22
WISEGUY
CFB
3 units East Carolina +10.5
paid & confirmed
2 units Jacksonville -13
2 units San Francisco +6
2 units Detroit -4.5
3 units Cincinnati +3
3 units Az/Atl OVER 43.5
5 units New England -22
WISEGUY
CFB
3 units East Carolina +10.5
S. Spritzer's NFL Major Mismatch Game of the Year! (4-0, 100%) -- Sunday
I'm laying the points with the Packers who continue to press the Cowboys.
We've already heard that we should throw out the records when these two rivals do battle. I don't subscribe to that belief this season. Chicago's offense is a mess and they'll pay for it here. One of the big reasons Bears' QB Kyle Orton struggled out of college was the amount of time it took for him to scan his routes. By watching him against the Vikings the other night, it's pretty obvious the problem has not been remedied. Orton took a count too long to get rid of the ball, and with a banged-up offensive line trying to protect him, the Bears are in trouble. The Packers will bring pressure from all over the field in this one. And, they already own two of the better pass-rush duos in the NFL in Kampman & Gbaja-Biamila. Chicago finished the Minnesota loss with only 11 FDs, 209 total yards, and 32 rushing yards at 1.9 yards per carry. Offensively, the Packers may have found a RB in Ryan Grant, who's averaging almost 5 yards per pop. Some will argue that the Bears were able to slow down a Viking ground game and will do so again this week. But I don't buy it. There's a bit of a difference under center between Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Chicago's defense will have to remain honest in this one. I look for Favre to spread the ball all over the field to his talented receivers like he's done all season. Cold/bad weather? No problem for Favre. Packers roll and they are my Major Mismatch GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott.
S. spritzer's 25* NFL Sunday Smackdown! *27-16, 63%!
I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.
Tennessee continues to try and keep their playoff hopes alive. Good news this week, because the right matchup comes to town. The Jets' front seven has not fared too well against the run all season and the defense ranks 30th in the league against the run. This means Tennessee's offense should be at their best. They'll be able to run right at the Jets' defense effectively, which means Vince Young will be able to play-action and also use his legs to attack this defense. It will be David Harris' job to mirror Lendale White on Sunday, which means he'll get lost when Young does use play-action and also in the short passing game. Defensively, the Titans have been an absolute beast at home. They're allowing just 184 passing yards per game with 10 interceptions and just six TDs allowed. Tennessee has 31 sacks on the season, with a whopping 24 coming on their home turf. They'll take on a banged-up Jets' offense, and a team that put everything they had into last week's game against New England. We've seen how poorly teams have done the week after playing the Pats this season. I expect more of the same this week resulting in a three touchdown win by the Titans. I'm laying the points with Tennessee. Thanks! GL! S.
I'm laying the points with the Packers who continue to press the Cowboys.
We've already heard that we should throw out the records when these two rivals do battle. I don't subscribe to that belief this season. Chicago's offense is a mess and they'll pay for it here. One of the big reasons Bears' QB Kyle Orton struggled out of college was the amount of time it took for him to scan his routes. By watching him against the Vikings the other night, it's pretty obvious the problem has not been remedied. Orton took a count too long to get rid of the ball, and with a banged-up offensive line trying to protect him, the Bears are in trouble. The Packers will bring pressure from all over the field in this one. And, they already own two of the better pass-rush duos in the NFL in Kampman & Gbaja-Biamila. Chicago finished the Minnesota loss with only 11 FDs, 209 total yards, and 32 rushing yards at 1.9 yards per carry. Offensively, the Packers may have found a RB in Ryan Grant, who's averaging almost 5 yards per pop. Some will argue that the Bears were able to slow down a Viking ground game and will do so again this week. But I don't buy it. There's a bit of a difference under center between Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Chicago's defense will have to remain honest in this one. I look for Favre to spread the ball all over the field to his talented receivers like he's done all season. Cold/bad weather? No problem for Favre. Packers roll and they are my Major Mismatch GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott.
S. spritzer's 25* NFL Sunday Smackdown! *27-16, 63%!
I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.
Tennessee continues to try and keep their playoff hopes alive. Good news this week, because the right matchup comes to town. The Jets' front seven has not fared too well against the run all season and the defense ranks 30th in the league against the run. This means Tennessee's offense should be at their best. They'll be able to run right at the Jets' defense effectively, which means Vince Young will be able to play-action and also use his legs to attack this defense. It will be David Harris' job to mirror Lendale White on Sunday, which means he'll get lost when Young does use play-action and also in the short passing game. Defensively, the Titans have been an absolute beast at home. They're allowing just 184 passing yards per game with 10 interceptions and just six TDs allowed. Tennessee has 31 sacks on the season, with a whopping 24 coming on their home turf. They'll take on a banged-up Jets' offense, and a team that put everything they had into last week's game against New England. We've seen how poorly teams have done the week after playing the Pats this season. I expect more of the same this week resulting in a three touchdown win by the Titans. I'm laying the points with Tennessee. Thanks! GL! S.
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L. Ness' LEGEND Play-NFL (5-1 in FB '07, including 2-0 in the NFL!)
My LEGEND play is on the Det Lions at 1:00 ET.
The Chiefs came off their bye week 4-3 and in first place in the AFC West. They've since lost SEVEN straight, going 1-6 ATS. QB Huard has not played in FOUR of the last five games, as Brodie Croyle has taken over. After posting a 99.2 QB rating in a 13-10 loss at Indy, he hasn't topped 67.7 in any of the other three games and takes a 71.7 rating for the year into this game. He's led the Chiefs offense (if one could call it that), to an average of just 12.8 PPG in those four starts, including a total of just 17 points in the two road games. Terrific TE Gonzalez has been wasted in this pass offense, Kennison has barely played all year (is expected to miss again) and rookie Bowe has just one TD catch during the team's seven-game slide. The Lions have a similar tale of woe, losing six straight (1-5 ATS), after a 6-2 start. Kitna predicted 10 wins but with a trip upcomig at Green Bay, 8-8 seems a stretch. However, let's note that the Lions' slide started at Arizona (a dangerous home team) and the last five losses have come to teams which would right now, all qualify for the playoffs (combined record of 50-20 .714)! Despite the team allowing a league-high 52 sacks, Kitna should top 4,000 YP (has 3,707) for the 2nd straight year and I expect a HUGE effort from him (and his teammates here). The Chiefs pass D has shown some real weaknesses lately, allowing Cutler four TDPs two weeks ago in Denver and Vince Young (and his 70.1 QB rating) to have one of his best games of the year last week in KC (only game this year that Young has had more than one TDP and zero INTs!). The Detroit D has its issues but KC's offense ranks 31st in YPG and 30th in PPG. Remember, the Lions had the Cowboys beat on this field in Week 14 and in their final home game (in front of some very disappointed fans), can ill-ford a weak effort. It's almost impossible to believe the Chiefs made the playoffs last year. I can almost see Edwards' best effort coming next week, against his old team, the Jets. LEGEND Play on the Det Lions. Good Luck...L
L. Ness' 20* December Total of the Month-NFL (14-5 run since '03 season!)
My 20* Total of the Month is on Phi/NO Over at 1:00 ET.
When L. plays an NFL total, "people take notice!" Since the beginning of the '03 season (one 20* total per month), his five-year run is now 14-5 or 73.7% ATS! Regulars also know that in Larry's current 9-2 run with NFL Las Vegas Insiders, he's 4-0 when playing a total. Looking for an easy over? "Look no further!" Good Luck...L.
L. Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 16 (9-2 run with NFL Insiders the L10 weeks!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:15 ET.
It's been a long and hard fall for the Ravens this year, after going 13-3 in 2006. Neither McNair nor Boller could stay healthy at QB and neither played well when given the chance. The once-proud defense has been decimated by injuries and the Ravens enter this game on a seven-game losing streak. Baltimore is 4-10 on the year and owns an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS mark. The team gave its all in Week 13 on MNF, losing a controversial 27-24 game to the Pats. Seemingly, the Ravens are done, as they followed that game by getting pounded by the Colts in Week 14 and then losing to the previously winless Dolphins last week. heading into this game, Troy Smith gets his first-ever start at QB and the defensive injuries continue to mount. Baltimore has committed 36 turnovers and owns a league-worst minus-18 turnover ratio. The Seahawks must be embarrassed by last week's effort at Carolina, losing 13-10 and ending a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Granted the team had just clinched the NFC West the previous week but the team was a "no-show" against the Panthers. With Seattle still battling Tampa Bay for the NFC's 3rd seed (both are 9-5), expect a much better effort here, in the team's final home game. Hasselbeck has had an excellent season, posting an 11-3 ratio during the team's five-game winning streak. His ratio is 16-5 at home and 25-10 overall on the year. Baltimore's pass D held opposing QBs to a 63.4 rating LY (16-28 ratio) but this year opposing QBs have a 20-13 ratio and a collective rating of 89.5! Hasselbeck will have little trouble against this outfit and that may also open up some running lanes. Seattle's won its last four home games (4-0 ATS) by an average margin of almost 20 points and Sunday easily takes care of a Baltimore team which is "counting the days" until Dec 30! Las Vegas Insider on the Sea Seahawks. Good Luck...L
My LEGEND play is on the Det Lions at 1:00 ET.
The Chiefs came off their bye week 4-3 and in first place in the AFC West. They've since lost SEVEN straight, going 1-6 ATS. QB Huard has not played in FOUR of the last five games, as Brodie Croyle has taken over. After posting a 99.2 QB rating in a 13-10 loss at Indy, he hasn't topped 67.7 in any of the other three games and takes a 71.7 rating for the year into this game. He's led the Chiefs offense (if one could call it that), to an average of just 12.8 PPG in those four starts, including a total of just 17 points in the two road games. Terrific TE Gonzalez has been wasted in this pass offense, Kennison has barely played all year (is expected to miss again) and rookie Bowe has just one TD catch during the team's seven-game slide. The Lions have a similar tale of woe, losing six straight (1-5 ATS), after a 6-2 start. Kitna predicted 10 wins but with a trip upcomig at Green Bay, 8-8 seems a stretch. However, let's note that the Lions' slide started at Arizona (a dangerous home team) and the last five losses have come to teams which would right now, all qualify for the playoffs (combined record of 50-20 .714)! Despite the team allowing a league-high 52 sacks, Kitna should top 4,000 YP (has 3,707) for the 2nd straight year and I expect a HUGE effort from him (and his teammates here). The Chiefs pass D has shown some real weaknesses lately, allowing Cutler four TDPs two weeks ago in Denver and Vince Young (and his 70.1 QB rating) to have one of his best games of the year last week in KC (only game this year that Young has had more than one TDP and zero INTs!). The Detroit D has its issues but KC's offense ranks 31st in YPG and 30th in PPG. Remember, the Lions had the Cowboys beat on this field in Week 14 and in their final home game (in front of some very disappointed fans), can ill-ford a weak effort. It's almost impossible to believe the Chiefs made the playoffs last year. I can almost see Edwards' best effort coming next week, against his old team, the Jets. LEGEND Play on the Det Lions. Good Luck...L
L. Ness' 20* December Total of the Month-NFL (14-5 run since '03 season!)
My 20* Total of the Month is on Phi/NO Over at 1:00 ET.
When L. plays an NFL total, "people take notice!" Since the beginning of the '03 season (one 20* total per month), his five-year run is now 14-5 or 73.7% ATS! Regulars also know that in Larry's current 9-2 run with NFL Las Vegas Insiders, he's 4-0 when playing a total. Looking for an easy over? "Look no further!" Good Luck...L.
L. Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 16 (9-2 run with NFL Insiders the L10 weeks!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:15 ET.
It's been a long and hard fall for the Ravens this year, after going 13-3 in 2006. Neither McNair nor Boller could stay healthy at QB and neither played well when given the chance. The once-proud defense has been decimated by injuries and the Ravens enter this game on a seven-game losing streak. Baltimore is 4-10 on the year and owns an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS mark. The team gave its all in Week 13 on MNF, losing a controversial 27-24 game to the Pats. Seemingly, the Ravens are done, as they followed that game by getting pounded by the Colts in Week 14 and then losing to the previously winless Dolphins last week. heading into this game, Troy Smith gets his first-ever start at QB and the defensive injuries continue to mount. Baltimore has committed 36 turnovers and owns a league-worst minus-18 turnover ratio. The Seahawks must be embarrassed by last week's effort at Carolina, losing 13-10 and ending a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Granted the team had just clinched the NFC West the previous week but the team was a "no-show" against the Panthers. With Seattle still battling Tampa Bay for the NFC's 3rd seed (both are 9-5), expect a much better effort here, in the team's final home game. Hasselbeck has had an excellent season, posting an 11-3 ratio during the team's five-game winning streak. His ratio is 16-5 at home and 25-10 overall on the year. Baltimore's pass D held opposing QBs to a 63.4 rating LY (16-28 ratio) but this year opposing QBs have a 20-13 ratio and a collective rating of 89.5! Hasselbeck will have little trouble against this outfit and that may also open up some running lanes. Seattle's won its last four home games (4-0 ATS) by an average margin of almost 20 points and Sunday easily takes care of a Baltimore team which is "counting the days" until Dec 30! Las Vegas Insider on the Sea Seahawks. Good Luck...L
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Wunderdog
Game: Houston at Indianapolis (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This line may look a bit low but the reality is, what does the game mean to Indianapolis? And, what has been their history when they have nothing to play for? Indianapolis can do nothing to change their playoff status, which has become the norm for this team down the stretch in recent years. The last five years the Colts have gone to week 16 with a combined record of 55-15. They have so many injuries, and with nothing to play for. Their history over the last five years would indicate that they are going to sleep-walk their way through these final final games. The Colts are 0-10 ATS the last five years in weeks 16 & 17. The fact is, for a team that won 55 of 70 leading into these games they are just 5-5 SU and in the last four years they have not won any game by more than 5 points! They have actually been out-scored by 46 points in the final two weeks of the season over the last five years. For Houston, this is a game that means so much. A win over the Colts puts a sense of validation on their season and ensures for the first time they don't finish with a losing record. In a nutshell, this is the Superbowl for the Texans. We would not be surprised if Houston plays good and wins this game straight up, so we will gladly take the TD, and go with a very live dog.
Game: New York Giants at Buffalo (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +3 (-125) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 32 -110
The Giants started the season 0-2 but then reeled off six straight wins. Again, they looked like they were headed for the playoffs. Then, as has been their history under Tom Coughlin, they seemed to quit. They have since gone 3-3 and again risk missing the playoffs. Their three wins came against struggling teams in Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia. In their three losses, they lost by 16 points per game on average. In all of these games, Eli Manning has looked terrible. They now go on the road, favored by a field goal against a team that has won six of their last nine games. Buffalo's three losses? They came against New England, Jacksonville and Cleveland - teams that combine for a 33-9 record! This is not a must-win for New York. Even if they lose, if the Redskins and Saints lose, New York is in the playoffs. Jeremy Shockey, a key outlet for Manning, is done for the season. And, Plaxico Burress is still hobbled and was completely ineffective last week. Without Shockey and a healthy Burress, Manning could be even worse than he has been - which is saying a lot! Buffalo is out of the playoffs but they are still playing for a winning record. And Kevin Everett, hurt earlier this year and not expected to walk again, will be introduced prior to the game, giving an emotional lift to the Bills. Buffalo is a winning home team that is 6-1 ATS this season! Under Dick Juron, this Bills team is 10-1 ATS in close games (line from -3 to +3) and in his coaching career, Juron is 13-1 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.
Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +3 (-125) (risk 4 to win 3.2)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 43.5 -110
This line is just begging for action on Cleveland. Cincinnati lost last week in a primetime game to the lowly 49ers. They now stand at 5-9, with no chance to reach the respectable .500 mark. Cleveland has been the darlings of the NFL, expected to do nothing, yet they have now won four of their last five and sit at 9-5, pressuring the Steelers for the division title. So how can this line by just three points? We see the bookmakers trying to get you on Cleveland. And they are succeeding with 70% of the bets coming in on the Browns. We see a different story. Cleveland is coming off a highly emotional, intense game vs. Buffalo. Cincinnati was absolutely embarassed on national TV. It is no secret these teams hate each other, so the chance for a Cincinnati no-show is not very likely. In fact, expect the opposite. They'd like nothing more than to bounce the Brownies from a playoff spot. This is not a must-win for Cleveland. They get San Francisco at home next week and it's unlikely that they will need two win out. The Bengals are actually 4-3 at home, 4-2 if you toss out the New England game. In those six games, they are actually out-scoring their opponents. The Browns have been unstoppable at home as they have won six straight there, but the road has not been as kind. Cleveland is just 3-4 on the road, and a much different team. Cincinnati will be playing with revenge, and they are also 4-1 ATS as a short dog of 3 or less, in their last five. We like the Bengals to come away with an inspired effort and win against the Browns. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.
Game: Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 34.5 -110
We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.
Game: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 12/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +6 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
If you look at this game statistically, then the conclusion might be that it is a slam dunk for the Bucs. Statistics, however don't always win football games in the NFL. Take a look at the betting line on this game. This one opened at 7, and with close to 90% of all bets coming in on Tampa Bay, the line has been creeping downward all week. It dropped to 6.5, and is now down to 6. Ask yourself this - Why were the Bengals coming here last week and favored by 10 while this line is 6? Are the Bengals a better team than Tampa Bay? No. The Bucs have locked up their division, and can't improve themselves, as they will be a 3rd or 4th seed. Want an eye-popping stat. Tampa Bay in their franchise history, is 4-25 SU in games played on the West coast! If you think that was mostly achieved in the early days of this franchise when they simply were not winning games anywhere, that is not true. They have not won a game on the West coast since 1999, and that also represents the last time they have even covered a game out West. In the last 17 games they have played out here, they are 2-15 SU and have been out-scored by 26.8 to 14.6. They are 0-7 SU against San Francisco on the road since 1983. So in a nutshell, we have a team with nothing to play for, that hasn't won in 25 years in the Bay, and is 4-25 SU on the West coast. They are facing a team that was a double digit home underdog to a horrible Cincinnati team. And the Niners are now a dog of 4 points less, facing a playoff team off a monster win?!? The public is biting, jumping all over the Bucs. But still, the line is dropping off of key numbers? We will not back a team that has four wins in their franchise history on the West coast, and none here. We see value on the other side. In fact, we wouldnot be surprised to see lowly San Francisco play superb and win this game, so we will grab the points.
Game: Atlanta at Arizona (Sunday 12/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +10 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Can it get any worse for the Atlanta Falcons? They lose their best player in Mike Vick to start the season. Vick's backup is now one of the most promising new starters in the league - for a different team, as the Falcons let him go in the offseason. Starting November 18, they go on a five game losing streak giving up 31+ points in four of the games. In the middle of that, Vick's sentencing hits and you can see how hard it hit the players, who were happy to pay fines for dress code violations just to get #7 plastered over their bodies. Their last loss was absolutely horrible as Tampa Bay pasted them 37-3. Then, after that, their coach quits on the team before the season is over! Finally, they get snubbed by Bill Barcells. This is a sinking ship - get off of it quickly! They are headed on the road to face a team that recently had playoff hopes - another trouncing no doubt. Not so fast! Remember, we like to buy low and sell high. It doesn't get any lower than Atlanta right now. But, are they really this bad? Should they be getting double-digits from a team that is 6-8 and has lost three of their last four? The Falcons have faced some stiff competition during their five-game slide including Tampa Bay twice and Indianapolis. They also caught St. Louis and New Orleans on days where those teams showed up. This will be the second start for Chris Redman and that's a huge leap from start #1. We expect the Cards to take Atlanta a bit lightly, chalking this up as an automatic win. We expect Atlanta to show up after the debacle last week as they are 15-5 ATS in their last twenty road games following a game in which they were outgained by 150+ yards and 13-4 ATS on the road off a game in which they allowed 175+ rushing yards. With everyone counting them out, this is the time to back the Falcons.
Game: New York Jets at Tennessee (Sunday 12/23 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +9 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
Tennessee is off a semingly convincing victory over the Chiefs. But, that 26-17 win was in question for most of the game. A late 41-yard TD pass by Vince Young to Roydell Williams made the final score a bit misleading. The fact remains that Tennessee has been a pretty bad team since mid-season. While posting a 6-2 mark (5-1-1 ATS) to start the year, they have since gone 2-4 SU and ATS. Teams have adjusted to Vince Young and are now limiting his effectiveness. At first (last season), Young befuddled defenses. But the NFL is a place where no advantage lasts forever. The Titans' offense is ranked 21st in the league and have become a one-dimensional team. The Jets are improving. Yes, we know they have lost their last two games. But, they played very well against excellent teams. Three weeks ago they destroyed the Dolphins 40-13. Then they gave Cleveland a fight, losing by 6 points (less than this spread). And, last week, they stayed right with the Patriots, forcing the worst game of the season for Tom Brady (first game with no TDs). Tennesse isn't nearly as good as either Cleveland or New England. The Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games laying 6+ points. Under Jeff Fisher, they are 20-33 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Instead of being down after losing last week, we think the Jets are motivated by their success in staying close to a New England team that was out for blood. This is too many points.
Game: Houston at Indianapolis (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This line may look a bit low but the reality is, what does the game mean to Indianapolis? And, what has been their history when they have nothing to play for? Indianapolis can do nothing to change their playoff status, which has become the norm for this team down the stretch in recent years. The last five years the Colts have gone to week 16 with a combined record of 55-15. They have so many injuries, and with nothing to play for. Their history over the last five years would indicate that they are going to sleep-walk their way through these final final games. The Colts are 0-10 ATS the last five years in weeks 16 & 17. The fact is, for a team that won 55 of 70 leading into these games they are just 5-5 SU and in the last four years they have not won any game by more than 5 points! They have actually been out-scored by 46 points in the final two weeks of the season over the last five years. For Houston, this is a game that means so much. A win over the Colts puts a sense of validation on their season and ensures for the first time they don't finish with a losing record. In a nutshell, this is the Superbowl for the Texans. We would not be surprised if Houston plays good and wins this game straight up, so we will gladly take the TD, and go with a very live dog.
Game: New York Giants at Buffalo (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +3 (-125) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 32 -110
The Giants started the season 0-2 but then reeled off six straight wins. Again, they looked like they were headed for the playoffs. Then, as has been their history under Tom Coughlin, they seemed to quit. They have since gone 3-3 and again risk missing the playoffs. Their three wins came against struggling teams in Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia. In their three losses, they lost by 16 points per game on average. In all of these games, Eli Manning has looked terrible. They now go on the road, favored by a field goal against a team that has won six of their last nine games. Buffalo's three losses? They came against New England, Jacksonville and Cleveland - teams that combine for a 33-9 record! This is not a must-win for New York. Even if they lose, if the Redskins and Saints lose, New York is in the playoffs. Jeremy Shockey, a key outlet for Manning, is done for the season. And, Plaxico Burress is still hobbled and was completely ineffective last week. Without Shockey and a healthy Burress, Manning could be even worse than he has been - which is saying a lot! Buffalo is out of the playoffs but they are still playing for a winning record. And Kevin Everett, hurt earlier this year and not expected to walk again, will be introduced prior to the game, giving an emotional lift to the Bills. Buffalo is a winning home team that is 6-1 ATS this season! Under Dick Juron, this Bills team is 10-1 ATS in close games (line from -3 to +3) and in his coaching career, Juron is 13-1 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.
Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +3 (-125) (risk 4 to win 3.2)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 43.5 -110
This line is just begging for action on Cleveland. Cincinnati lost last week in a primetime game to the lowly 49ers. They now stand at 5-9, with no chance to reach the respectable .500 mark. Cleveland has been the darlings of the NFL, expected to do nothing, yet they have now won four of their last five and sit at 9-5, pressuring the Steelers for the division title. So how can this line by just three points? We see the bookmakers trying to get you on Cleveland. And they are succeeding with 70% of the bets coming in on the Browns. We see a different story. Cleveland is coming off a highly emotional, intense game vs. Buffalo. Cincinnati was absolutely embarassed on national TV. It is no secret these teams hate each other, so the chance for a Cincinnati no-show is not very likely. In fact, expect the opposite. They'd like nothing more than to bounce the Brownies from a playoff spot. This is not a must-win for Cleveland. They get San Francisco at home next week and it's unlikely that they will need two win out. The Bengals are actually 4-3 at home, 4-2 if you toss out the New England game. In those six games, they are actually out-scoring their opponents. The Browns have been unstoppable at home as they have won six straight there, but the road has not been as kind. Cleveland is just 3-4 on the road, and a much different team. Cincinnati will be playing with revenge, and they are also 4-1 ATS as a short dog of 3 or less, in their last five. We like the Bengals to come away with an inspired effort and win against the Browns. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.
Game: Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 34.5 -110
We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.
Game: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 12/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +6 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
If you look at this game statistically, then the conclusion might be that it is a slam dunk for the Bucs. Statistics, however don't always win football games in the NFL. Take a look at the betting line on this game. This one opened at 7, and with close to 90% of all bets coming in on Tampa Bay, the line has been creeping downward all week. It dropped to 6.5, and is now down to 6. Ask yourself this - Why were the Bengals coming here last week and favored by 10 while this line is 6? Are the Bengals a better team than Tampa Bay? No. The Bucs have locked up their division, and can't improve themselves, as they will be a 3rd or 4th seed. Want an eye-popping stat. Tampa Bay in their franchise history, is 4-25 SU in games played on the West coast! If you think that was mostly achieved in the early days of this franchise when they simply were not winning games anywhere, that is not true. They have not won a game on the West coast since 1999, and that also represents the last time they have even covered a game out West. In the last 17 games they have played out here, they are 2-15 SU and have been out-scored by 26.8 to 14.6. They are 0-7 SU against San Francisco on the road since 1983. So in a nutshell, we have a team with nothing to play for, that hasn't won in 25 years in the Bay, and is 4-25 SU on the West coast. They are facing a team that was a double digit home underdog to a horrible Cincinnati team. And the Niners are now a dog of 4 points less, facing a playoff team off a monster win?!? The public is biting, jumping all over the Bucs. But still, the line is dropping off of key numbers? We will not back a team that has four wins in their franchise history on the West coast, and none here. We see value on the other side. In fact, we wouldnot be surprised to see lowly San Francisco play superb and win this game, so we will grab the points.
Game: Atlanta at Arizona (Sunday 12/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +10 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Can it get any worse for the Atlanta Falcons? They lose their best player in Mike Vick to start the season. Vick's backup is now one of the most promising new starters in the league - for a different team, as the Falcons let him go in the offseason. Starting November 18, they go on a five game losing streak giving up 31+ points in four of the games. In the middle of that, Vick's sentencing hits and you can see how hard it hit the players, who were happy to pay fines for dress code violations just to get #7 plastered over their bodies. Their last loss was absolutely horrible as Tampa Bay pasted them 37-3. Then, after that, their coach quits on the team before the season is over! Finally, they get snubbed by Bill Barcells. This is a sinking ship - get off of it quickly! They are headed on the road to face a team that recently had playoff hopes - another trouncing no doubt. Not so fast! Remember, we like to buy low and sell high. It doesn't get any lower than Atlanta right now. But, are they really this bad? Should they be getting double-digits from a team that is 6-8 and has lost three of their last four? The Falcons have faced some stiff competition during their five-game slide including Tampa Bay twice and Indianapolis. They also caught St. Louis and New Orleans on days where those teams showed up. This will be the second start for Chris Redman and that's a huge leap from start #1. We expect the Cards to take Atlanta a bit lightly, chalking this up as an automatic win. We expect Atlanta to show up after the debacle last week as they are 15-5 ATS in their last twenty road games following a game in which they were outgained by 150+ yards and 13-4 ATS on the road off a game in which they allowed 175+ rushing yards. With everyone counting them out, this is the time to back the Falcons.
Game: New York Jets at Tennessee (Sunday 12/23 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +9 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
Tennessee is off a semingly convincing victory over the Chiefs. But, that 26-17 win was in question for most of the game. A late 41-yard TD pass by Vince Young to Roydell Williams made the final score a bit misleading. The fact remains that Tennessee has been a pretty bad team since mid-season. While posting a 6-2 mark (5-1-1 ATS) to start the year, they have since gone 2-4 SU and ATS. Teams have adjusted to Vince Young and are now limiting his effectiveness. At first (last season), Young befuddled defenses. But the NFL is a place where no advantage lasts forever. The Titans' offense is ranked 21st in the league and have become a one-dimensional team. The Jets are improving. Yes, we know they have lost their last two games. But, they played very well against excellent teams. Three weeks ago they destroyed the Dolphins 40-13. Then they gave Cleveland a fight, losing by 6 points (less than this spread). And, last week, they stayed right with the Patriots, forcing the worst game of the season for Tom Brady (first game with no TDs). Tennesse isn't nearly as good as either Cleveland or New England. The Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games laying 6+ points. Under Jeff Fisher, they are 20-33 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Instead of being down after losing last week, we think the Jets are motivated by their success in staying close to a New England team that was out for blood. This is too many points.