SERVICE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY 12/23
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
THE MAX- KEVIN O'NIEL
Sunday, December 23rd, 2007
@Bengals (+3) over Browns
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
It sure looks like the Bungles are back, doesn?t it?
With just 5 wins and off an embarrassing loss at San
Francisco, who on earth will be backing Cincinnati
this week? Not many, especially with the Browns
coming in red-hot and playoff bound. The short
price looks too easy, but buyer beware. This is not
a good spot for Cleveland. The Brownies enter off a
huge playoff implication win over the Bills. And I?m
sure you all saw that it was played in blizzard like
conditions. The Browns did just enough to win as
no touchdowns were scored. Phil Dawson kicked 2
field goals and they also got a safety on a botched
punt. It was their first win when scoring less than
27 points this year. But big offensive production
was not expected in the horrible conditions. The 8-0
win also marked their first shutout since 2005, a
stretch of 36 games. Playing a perfect game in
miserable weather will most definitely result in a dip
in performance for the Browns this week.
These two met back in week 2 with the Browns
winning a wild game 51-45. The combined 96
points came on 1,085 yards of offense. Carson
Palmer had a monster game completing 33 of 50 for
401 yards on his way to a career-high 6 TD passes.
It was the Bengals best passing game of the season,
and considering the season-long struggles, they?ve
got to be salivating at the chance of playing
Cleveland again. It was also the game in which
Cleveland handed the offense to Derek Anderson.
And it?s been a fairy tale story since with Cleveland
winning 9 games. Jamal Lewis ran roughshod on
Cincy?s defense to the tune of 216 yards so look for
him to get a boatload of carries here.
Cleveland has had trouble when facing good
offensive teams this year. They?ve lost to the
Steelers by 27 and 3, beat the Bengals by 6, lost at
the Patriots by 17, beat the Seahawks by 3, and lost
at Arizona by 6. They?ve yet to win a road game vs.
a decent offense. Wins at Oakland, St Louis,
Baltimore, and the Jets don?t stand for much. They
were already gashed by the Bengals, and Cincinnati
has the firepower to trade points with the Browns.
Cincinnati was a 7?-point road favorite in the first
meeting, so getting a field goal at home with them
now presents a good opportunity to fade a bad
Cleveland defense. Bengals by 3.
Texans (+7) over @Colts
Selection and analysis by Kevin O?Neill
The Colts have nothing to play for. Nothing. Nada.
Zip. Zero. They?re locked in as 2nd seed in the AFC
no matter what happens in the last two weeks, and
while it isn?t like Dungy is going to give his starters
an entire month off (2 games, bye week) before
their first playoff affair, this is a banged up team
that needs to get healthy. There?ll be some focus on
getting sharp, but any urgency will be artificial, and
while Manning is always professional, and is a
demanding leader, everyone goes into this one
knowing that all they need to do is stay sharp. We
saw the lack of urgency in Oakland. The Colts
enjoyed all kinds of breaks early (including a punt
return for a TD). Then after a goal line stand by
Oakland, the Colts allowed a 20-play, 99-yard TD
drive. That?s a team without much killer instinct
right now, because there is no need for one. And
the urgency doesn?t just lessen in this case. There
actually is no urgency.
In meaningful and meaningless situations alike, the
Colts have struggled mightily this time of year. The
Colts under Tony Dungy are 0-10 against the spread
in the last two weeks of the season. Many of those
losses were due to Dungy looking to get his club
healthy. One reason we used the Raiders on the late
phones last week was the fact that the Colts were so
beat up at receiver, dressing only three wideouts in
Oakland. This is obviously a time to get those
people healthy. Playing hurt is a way of life in the
NFL, but right now the Colts are all about getting
and staying healthy.
Despite a win earlier in the week, Houston was
eliminated from the playoffs on a Sunday. After a 2-
14 campaign last year the Texans are at .500
despite having a league-high 17 players placed on
injured reserve. This 7-7 team showed what
direction they?re heading in during their 31-13
Thursday night home win over the Broncos. This is
an ascendant team, with a young defense (all
starters in their 20?s) and some solid younger
offensive skill position players. Mario Williams has
gone from the national joke that somehow was
drafted ahead of Reggie Bush to a top-notch young
defensive lineman, with 13 sacks on the season.
Now over his nagging injury, Andre Johnson is the
best young receiver in football and the Texans are
5-2 in games he starts. Sage Rosenfels, likely to
start today, has been terrific, and Schaub?s shoulder
injury hasn?t hurt the team a bit. The Texans are 0-
5 at Indianapolis, with the average loss being by 19
points. But this is a much better Houston team, and
all those games were meaningful to the Colts, while
this one means nothing. Take the points. Texans
@New England (-22) over Miami
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Weather forecasts and their relationship to football
games are difficult enough to predict on game day,
let alone a week advance, but as of now it does look
like it is going to warm up and be tolerable in New
England by the time Sunday rolls around. However,
even a little cold or precipitation won?t scare me
away (granted I won?t lay this price in a complete
blizzard or ice storm) and the fact that the Patriots
never came close to covering against the Jets in the
snow and sleet this past weekend give us some line
value here today. This warm weather Miami bunch
won?t take to the elements as well as the Jets did
this past weekend, but either way, the conditions
will be priced into the line, so monitor the forecast
to make sure you are getting a good number. The
current line, if weather is not an issue, is simply not
high enough. New England laid 24 to Philadelphia,
and 10.5 to Pittsburgh on this field, and also 18.5 at
Baltimore. How can they lay only 22 to one of the
two worst teams in football? Miami has lost 7
games this season by double digits, and they are off
of a draining overtime win against Baltimore that
broke a string of 16 straight losses. They are not
improving, they simply beat a team (barely) that
doesn?t care anymore, has a lot of good players out
of the lineup, and missed a field goal in overtime.
After finally winning to avoid the embarrassment of
going 0-16, I think there will be a letdown.
I?m not going to bore you with stats that will in
every way prove New England?s ridiculous
dominance in this game. New England is probably
the best team I?ve ever seen?and Miami is brutally
bad. New England can name their score in this
game, and have won 5 games by more than this
margin on the season, and 4 more by 21 points
exactly. They led Miami 42-7 AT THE HALF in the
first meeting this year. I think they will put on a
show in their last home game of the season, and
just so you don?t think I?ve morphed into a chalkeating
Sunday square (you know the type of bettor
that is making a lot more money than me in the NFL
this season), playoff teams playing their last regular
season home game are a 59% long-term
proposition. I thought this line would be 27-28,
and my power ratings, which have had trouble
keeping up with the Pats all season (had them at ?1
at Indy, -13 at Baltimore and-17 against Philly),
actually make New England 24.5-25 here. Nice to
see how the other half lives every now and then.
Kill ?em Pats?Kill ?em. New England by 30
Jets @Titans under 37?
Selection and analysis by Kevin O?Neill
A few weeks ago a defender on a Titans
opponent saying that their game plan was to
?make Vince Young be a quarterback?. That?s
certainly an indication that Young has a long
way to go to become an elite signal caller, no
matter how good his leadership skills are and
how mobile he is. After a dynamite rookie
year, Young has struggled this season. He
simply isn?t a good enough passer. The Jets
similarly have quarterback problems. Kellen
Clemens won the job via some decent
performances but he was inconsistent and then
he hurt his shoulder Sunday, necessitating the
insertion of Chad Pennington into the lineup.
Clemens will probably play on Sunday, but
neither of these teams is strong at the
quarterback position right now. Both are more
likely to kick a field goal than score a TD, and
both struggle even when handed good
opportunities (the Titans had field goal ?drives?
of 2 and 6 yards on Sunday).
When Albert Haynesworth is in the lineup, the
Titans defense is one of the better outfits in
the league, very strong on the inside and
difficult to run against. The Jets defense has
a lot of poor numbers, but have tightened up
lately, allowing 19 points per game in their last
7 games despite playing the Patriots, Browns,
Cowboys, and Steelers in that span. Both of
these teams struggle to get into the end zone
and are in the bottom quartile of touchdowns
scored, but the Titans are #1 and the Jets #4
in number of field goals. 8-6 Tennessee
needs help, but still has a shot at the playoffs,
so they?ll bring a lot of defensive intensity to
this one. With an improving Jets D, a solid
Titans D, two limited offenses, and the
propensity to kick field goals instead of
punching balls into the end zone, this looks like
a low scoring game. Go under the total.
Sunday, December 23rd, 2007
@Bengals (+3) over Browns
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
It sure looks like the Bungles are back, doesn?t it?
With just 5 wins and off an embarrassing loss at San
Francisco, who on earth will be backing Cincinnati
this week? Not many, especially with the Browns
coming in red-hot and playoff bound. The short
price looks too easy, but buyer beware. This is not
a good spot for Cleveland. The Brownies enter off a
huge playoff implication win over the Bills. And I?m
sure you all saw that it was played in blizzard like
conditions. The Browns did just enough to win as
no touchdowns were scored. Phil Dawson kicked 2
field goals and they also got a safety on a botched
punt. It was their first win when scoring less than
27 points this year. But big offensive production
was not expected in the horrible conditions. The 8-0
win also marked their first shutout since 2005, a
stretch of 36 games. Playing a perfect game in
miserable weather will most definitely result in a dip
in performance for the Browns this week.
These two met back in week 2 with the Browns
winning a wild game 51-45. The combined 96
points came on 1,085 yards of offense. Carson
Palmer had a monster game completing 33 of 50 for
401 yards on his way to a career-high 6 TD passes.
It was the Bengals best passing game of the season,
and considering the season-long struggles, they?ve
got to be salivating at the chance of playing
Cleveland again. It was also the game in which
Cleveland handed the offense to Derek Anderson.
And it?s been a fairy tale story since with Cleveland
winning 9 games. Jamal Lewis ran roughshod on
Cincy?s defense to the tune of 216 yards so look for
him to get a boatload of carries here.
Cleveland has had trouble when facing good
offensive teams this year. They?ve lost to the
Steelers by 27 and 3, beat the Bengals by 6, lost at
the Patriots by 17, beat the Seahawks by 3, and lost
at Arizona by 6. They?ve yet to win a road game vs.
a decent offense. Wins at Oakland, St Louis,
Baltimore, and the Jets don?t stand for much. They
were already gashed by the Bengals, and Cincinnati
has the firepower to trade points with the Browns.
Cincinnati was a 7?-point road favorite in the first
meeting, so getting a field goal at home with them
now presents a good opportunity to fade a bad
Cleveland defense. Bengals by 3.
Texans (+7) over @Colts
Selection and analysis by Kevin O?Neill
The Colts have nothing to play for. Nothing. Nada.
Zip. Zero. They?re locked in as 2nd seed in the AFC
no matter what happens in the last two weeks, and
while it isn?t like Dungy is going to give his starters
an entire month off (2 games, bye week) before
their first playoff affair, this is a banged up team
that needs to get healthy. There?ll be some focus on
getting sharp, but any urgency will be artificial, and
while Manning is always professional, and is a
demanding leader, everyone goes into this one
knowing that all they need to do is stay sharp. We
saw the lack of urgency in Oakland. The Colts
enjoyed all kinds of breaks early (including a punt
return for a TD). Then after a goal line stand by
Oakland, the Colts allowed a 20-play, 99-yard TD
drive. That?s a team without much killer instinct
right now, because there is no need for one. And
the urgency doesn?t just lessen in this case. There
actually is no urgency.
In meaningful and meaningless situations alike, the
Colts have struggled mightily this time of year. The
Colts under Tony Dungy are 0-10 against the spread
in the last two weeks of the season. Many of those
losses were due to Dungy looking to get his club
healthy. One reason we used the Raiders on the late
phones last week was the fact that the Colts were so
beat up at receiver, dressing only three wideouts in
Oakland. This is obviously a time to get those
people healthy. Playing hurt is a way of life in the
NFL, but right now the Colts are all about getting
and staying healthy.
Despite a win earlier in the week, Houston was
eliminated from the playoffs on a Sunday. After a 2-
14 campaign last year the Texans are at .500
despite having a league-high 17 players placed on
injured reserve. This 7-7 team showed what
direction they?re heading in during their 31-13
Thursday night home win over the Broncos. This is
an ascendant team, with a young defense (all
starters in their 20?s) and some solid younger
offensive skill position players. Mario Williams has
gone from the national joke that somehow was
drafted ahead of Reggie Bush to a top-notch young
defensive lineman, with 13 sacks on the season.
Now over his nagging injury, Andre Johnson is the
best young receiver in football and the Texans are
5-2 in games he starts. Sage Rosenfels, likely to
start today, has been terrific, and Schaub?s shoulder
injury hasn?t hurt the team a bit. The Texans are 0-
5 at Indianapolis, with the average loss being by 19
points. But this is a much better Houston team, and
all those games were meaningful to the Colts, while
this one means nothing. Take the points. Texans
@New England (-22) over Miami
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Weather forecasts and their relationship to football
games are difficult enough to predict on game day,
let alone a week advance, but as of now it does look
like it is going to warm up and be tolerable in New
England by the time Sunday rolls around. However,
even a little cold or precipitation won?t scare me
away (granted I won?t lay this price in a complete
blizzard or ice storm) and the fact that the Patriots
never came close to covering against the Jets in the
snow and sleet this past weekend give us some line
value here today. This warm weather Miami bunch
won?t take to the elements as well as the Jets did
this past weekend, but either way, the conditions
will be priced into the line, so monitor the forecast
to make sure you are getting a good number. The
current line, if weather is not an issue, is simply not
high enough. New England laid 24 to Philadelphia,
and 10.5 to Pittsburgh on this field, and also 18.5 at
Baltimore. How can they lay only 22 to one of the
two worst teams in football? Miami has lost 7
games this season by double digits, and they are off
of a draining overtime win against Baltimore that
broke a string of 16 straight losses. They are not
improving, they simply beat a team (barely) that
doesn?t care anymore, has a lot of good players out
of the lineup, and missed a field goal in overtime.
After finally winning to avoid the embarrassment of
going 0-16, I think there will be a letdown.
I?m not going to bore you with stats that will in
every way prove New England?s ridiculous
dominance in this game. New England is probably
the best team I?ve ever seen?and Miami is brutally
bad. New England can name their score in this
game, and have won 5 games by more than this
margin on the season, and 4 more by 21 points
exactly. They led Miami 42-7 AT THE HALF in the
first meeting this year. I think they will put on a
show in their last home game of the season, and
just so you don?t think I?ve morphed into a chalkeating
Sunday square (you know the type of bettor
that is making a lot more money than me in the NFL
this season), playoff teams playing their last regular
season home game are a 59% long-term
proposition. I thought this line would be 27-28,
and my power ratings, which have had trouble
keeping up with the Pats all season (had them at ?1
at Indy, -13 at Baltimore and-17 against Philly),
actually make New England 24.5-25 here. Nice to
see how the other half lives every now and then.
Kill ?em Pats?Kill ?em. New England by 30
Jets @Titans under 37?
Selection and analysis by Kevin O?Neill
A few weeks ago a defender on a Titans
opponent saying that their game plan was to
?make Vince Young be a quarterback?. That?s
certainly an indication that Young has a long
way to go to become an elite signal caller, no
matter how good his leadership skills are and
how mobile he is. After a dynamite rookie
year, Young has struggled this season. He
simply isn?t a good enough passer. The Jets
similarly have quarterback problems. Kellen
Clemens won the job via some decent
performances but he was inconsistent and then
he hurt his shoulder Sunday, necessitating the
insertion of Chad Pennington into the lineup.
Clemens will probably play on Sunday, but
neither of these teams is strong at the
quarterback position right now. Both are more
likely to kick a field goal than score a TD, and
both struggle even when handed good
opportunities (the Titans had field goal ?drives?
of 2 and 6 yards on Sunday).
When Albert Haynesworth is in the lineup, the
Titans defense is one of the better outfits in
the league, very strong on the inside and
difficult to run against. The Jets defense has
a lot of poor numbers, but have tightened up
lately, allowing 19 points per game in their last
7 games despite playing the Patriots, Browns,
Cowboys, and Steelers in that span. Both of
these teams struggle to get into the end zone
and are in the bottom quartile of touchdowns
scored, but the Titans are #1 and the Jets #4
in number of field goals. 8-6 Tennessee
needs help, but still has a shot at the playoffs,
so they?ll bring a lot of defensive intensity to
this one. With an improving Jets D, a solid
Titans D, two limited offenses, and the
propensity to kick field goals instead of
punching balls into the end zone, this looks like
a low scoring game. Go under the total.
POINTWISE NEWSLETTER:
NFL KEY RELEASES
SEATTLE over Baltimore RATING: 2
JACKSONVILLE over Oakland RATING: 3
NEW ENGLAND over Miami RATING: 4
DETROIT over Kansas City RATING: 4
GREEN BAY over Chicago RATING: 5
---------------HAWAII BOWL-----------------------------------
BOISE STATE 45 - East Carolina 24 RATING: 2
BOISE STATE (10-2) vs EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Boise St ...... 34.7 .. 43-20 .. 24-17 .. 193-117 .. 284-217 .. + 4 . Boise St
E Carolina .. 39.3 .. 30 30 ... 19-23 .. 171-146 .. 207-290 .. +14 . by 10.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
What, the Hawaii Rainbows not playing in the Hawaii Bowl? Well, actually it
also happened just 2 years ago, when Nevada (-3) prevailed 49-48 in OT, over
Central Florida. Besides, the 'Bows have bigger fish to fry, come New Year's
Day, as they are this year's edition of "Cinderella", just as the Broncos of Boise
State were a season ago, in their stunning upset of Oklahoma, in the Fiesta
Bowl. For Boise, this marks its 6th straight bowl game, & its 8th since 1999,
when the Broncs first burst on the scene with their scintillating offense. At
least 10 wins in 7 of those 9 seasons (8 in '01, & 9 in '05), with LY's 13-0 mark
the acme. They again are among the elites, offensively, ranking 10th in total
"O", as well as 3rd in scoring. A year ago, they were led by QB Zabransky,
who finished 8th in the nation (66.4%, 20 TDs, 7 INTs). Well, he has been ably
replaced by Tharp, who coincidentally, ranks 8th in the nation (68.3%, 28 TDs,
9 INTs). Truly amazing. And RB Johnson is now at 2,743 RYs & 41 TDs the
past 2 years. Note that this marks their 2nd Honolulu appearance in the past
month (39-27 loss to Hawaii in WAC showdown). The Pirates of East Carolina
have been on a steady rise since their 1-11 mark in '03, & have posted an
enviable 25-11 spread mark over the past 3 seasons, including a decent 7-5
record this season. Plenty of "O", but very little "D". As a matter of fact,
they've averaged 41 ppg in 7 of their last 8 games, but allowed 37 ppg in 9 of
their last 11 games. They rank 97th in total "D", & 115th vs the pass. Tharp,
anyone? We know that double digit chalks can be poison come bowl time, but
heavy weight is a weekly occurrence for the Broncos. Feast on the Pirate "D".
PROPHECY: BOISE STATE 45 - East Carolina 24 RATING: 2
NFL KEY RELEASES
SEATTLE over Baltimore RATING: 2
JACKSONVILLE over Oakland RATING: 3
NEW ENGLAND over Miami RATING: 4
DETROIT over Kansas City RATING: 4
GREEN BAY over Chicago RATING: 5
---------------HAWAII BOWL-----------------------------------
BOISE STATE 45 - East Carolina 24 RATING: 2
BOISE STATE (10-2) vs EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Boise St ...... 34.7 .. 43-20 .. 24-17 .. 193-117 .. 284-217 .. + 4 . Boise St
E Carolina .. 39.3 .. 30 30 ... 19-23 .. 171-146 .. 207-290 .. +14 . by 10.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
What, the Hawaii Rainbows not playing in the Hawaii Bowl? Well, actually it
also happened just 2 years ago, when Nevada (-3) prevailed 49-48 in OT, over
Central Florida. Besides, the 'Bows have bigger fish to fry, come New Year's
Day, as they are this year's edition of "Cinderella", just as the Broncos of Boise
State were a season ago, in their stunning upset of Oklahoma, in the Fiesta
Bowl. For Boise, this marks its 6th straight bowl game, & its 8th since 1999,
when the Broncs first burst on the scene with their scintillating offense. At
least 10 wins in 7 of those 9 seasons (8 in '01, & 9 in '05), with LY's 13-0 mark
the acme. They again are among the elites, offensively, ranking 10th in total
"O", as well as 3rd in scoring. A year ago, they were led by QB Zabransky,
who finished 8th in the nation (66.4%, 20 TDs, 7 INTs). Well, he has been ably
replaced by Tharp, who coincidentally, ranks 8th in the nation (68.3%, 28 TDs,
9 INTs). Truly amazing. And RB Johnson is now at 2,743 RYs & 41 TDs the
past 2 years. Note that this marks their 2nd Honolulu appearance in the past
month (39-27 loss to Hawaii in WAC showdown). The Pirates of East Carolina
have been on a steady rise since their 1-11 mark in '03, & have posted an
enviable 25-11 spread mark over the past 3 seasons, including a decent 7-5
record this season. Plenty of "O", but very little "D". As a matter of fact,
they've averaged 41 ppg in 7 of their last 8 games, but allowed 37 ppg in 9 of
their last 11 games. They rank 97th in total "D", & 115th vs the pass. Tharp,
anyone? We know that double digit chalks can be poison come bowl time, but
heavy weight is a weekly occurrence for the Broncos. Feast on the Pirate "D".
PROPHECY: BOISE STATE 45 - East Carolina 24 RATING: 2
Last edited:
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
Denver over SAN DIEGO by 3
Finally, an entertaining Monday nighter featuring a pair of
division rivals with a score to settle. Sure, the Broncos will
be home for the holidays for the 2nd straight season but,
rest assured, they will come into this game with fi re in their
eyes from a 41-3 loss earlier this year. It was the worst defeat
suffered by Denver since 1966 and, obviously, the worst ever
in Mike Shanahan?s career. Sure, the Chargers are 8-1 ATS as
December chalk against a losing team off a double-digit loss,
but Denver counters at 7-1 ATS off an upset loss against a
division opponent off a SUATS win. Clincher is Norv Turner?s 0-5
ATS career mark as a favorite of more than 7 points against a
division foe off a loss. Are you ready for some football
4★ BEST BET
Kansas City over DETROIT by 7
When it comes to handicapping NFL games ?down the stretch?
(fi nal four games) one thing is apparent. In games involving
garbage-to-garbage, never be in a hurry to lay points. Especially
with a team on a 5-game or worse losing skein (just ask
Baltimore), as they are 7-14-1 ATS. Additionally, losing teams
who are home favorites in games after surrendering 44 or more
points in a loss their last game are 12-29 ATS. Worse yet, the
Lions have never won or covered a game against an opponent
off back-to-back losses under head coach Rod Marinelli, going
0-5 SUATS. Chiefs improve to 5-0 ATS in this series with a drivethru
win in the Motor City.
3★ BEST BET
CINCINNATI over Cleveland by 7
Bengals put up a season-high 531 yards in Week Two of the
season against the Brownies. It wasn?t enough as they fell, 51-
45, snapping a fi ve-game series win skein. It?s been a downhill
slalom run since. To make matters worse, they enter off an
embarrassing tumble to the lowly 49ers (as 8-point road chalk)
last week. Apparent masters of the ?limbo-rock? (how low can
they go?) they?ll look to return the favor behind a 9-1 SUATS
mark in LHG?s against .500 or better opposition, with six wins
straight-up as underdogs. Perhaps the only thing worse than
Cincy?s stinky defense is odorous Cleveland, a winning team
who, despite last week?s snow-covered shutout win, still rank
dead last in the league in total defense. You know what to do.
-------HAWAII BOWL------------------------------------------
Boise St over East Carolina by 7
Boise State's 2007 edition will have a hard time topping the Broncos?
last postseason appearance, a sensational 43-42 Fiesta Bowl win over
Oklahoma that many rank an one of the greatest bowls ever played.
East Carolina may have fi nished the season just 4-8 ITS but head
coach Skip Holtz has covered in 25 of his 36 starts at ECU and he?s a
perfect 10-0 ATS in games after scoring 34 or more points. Also, our
PLAYBOOK Database tells us that C-USA bowlers are 7-2 ATS versus
the WAC. Boise State may be making its sixth straight trip to a bowl
game but we don?t think the Broncos fi ll the bill as double-digit chalk.
We?ll sail with the Pirates to pointspread paradise.
5★ BEST BET
Denver over SAN DIEGO by 3
Finally, an entertaining Monday nighter featuring a pair of
division rivals with a score to settle. Sure, the Broncos will
be home for the holidays for the 2nd straight season but,
rest assured, they will come into this game with fi re in their
eyes from a 41-3 loss earlier this year. It was the worst defeat
suffered by Denver since 1966 and, obviously, the worst ever
in Mike Shanahan?s career. Sure, the Chargers are 8-1 ATS as
December chalk against a losing team off a double-digit loss,
but Denver counters at 7-1 ATS off an upset loss against a
division opponent off a SUATS win. Clincher is Norv Turner?s 0-5
ATS career mark as a favorite of more than 7 points against a
division foe off a loss. Are you ready for some football
4★ BEST BET
Kansas City over DETROIT by 7
When it comes to handicapping NFL games ?down the stretch?
(fi nal four games) one thing is apparent. In games involving
garbage-to-garbage, never be in a hurry to lay points. Especially
with a team on a 5-game or worse losing skein (just ask
Baltimore), as they are 7-14-1 ATS. Additionally, losing teams
who are home favorites in games after surrendering 44 or more
points in a loss their last game are 12-29 ATS. Worse yet, the
Lions have never won or covered a game against an opponent
off back-to-back losses under head coach Rod Marinelli, going
0-5 SUATS. Chiefs improve to 5-0 ATS in this series with a drivethru
win in the Motor City.
3★ BEST BET
CINCINNATI over Cleveland by 7
Bengals put up a season-high 531 yards in Week Two of the
season against the Brownies. It wasn?t enough as they fell, 51-
45, snapping a fi ve-game series win skein. It?s been a downhill
slalom run since. To make matters worse, they enter off an
embarrassing tumble to the lowly 49ers (as 8-point road chalk)
last week. Apparent masters of the ?limbo-rock? (how low can
they go?) they?ll look to return the favor behind a 9-1 SUATS
mark in LHG?s against .500 or better opposition, with six wins
straight-up as underdogs. Perhaps the only thing worse than
Cincy?s stinky defense is odorous Cleveland, a winning team
who, despite last week?s snow-covered shutout win, still rank
dead last in the league in total defense. You know what to do.
-------HAWAII BOWL------------------------------------------
Boise St over East Carolina by 7
Boise State's 2007 edition will have a hard time topping the Broncos?
last postseason appearance, a sensational 43-42 Fiesta Bowl win over
Oklahoma that many rank an one of the greatest bowls ever played.
East Carolina may have fi nished the season just 4-8 ITS but head
coach Skip Holtz has covered in 25 of his 36 starts at ECU and he?s a
perfect 10-0 ATS in games after scoring 34 or more points. Also, our
PLAYBOOK Database tells us that C-USA bowlers are 7-2 ATS versus
the WAC. Boise State may be making its sixth straight trip to a bowl
game but we don?t think the Broncos fi ll the bill as double-digit chalk.
We?ll sail with the Pirates to pointspread paradise.
Last edited:
WINNING POINTS : FOOTBALL
NFL:
****BEST BET
*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 17
Carson Palmer torched the Browns for six touchdown passes in the team?s
first meeting ? and the Bengals still lost! Derek Anderson embarrassed
Cincinnati?s defense for 328 yards passing and five touchdowns in a wild
51-45 Week 2 victory.That was in Cleveland. Can you say major revenge?
The Bengals have defeated the Browns each of the past three years in
Cincinnati, covering two of the three. Of course this isn?t the same Browns
club.They are much,much better this year. However, it?s a tough situational
spot for Cleveland. The Bengals have revenge and no playoff pressure.
That makes them dangerous.The Bengals? strong suit is their passing attack
with Palmer throwing to star wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J.
Houshmandzadeh. The Browns? secondary is weakened by multiple
injuries. They?ve surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Rudi Johnson traditionally
runs well against Cleveland, too. He?s rushed for at least 117 yards
in five of the past six meetings, while scoring nine touchdowns in the last
10 games versus Cleveland. The Bengals are 1-6 on the road, but a very
respectable 4-3 at home.They have followed a loss with a victory five times
this season. Until playing poorly at San Francisco last Saturday, the Bengals
defense had held their past five foes to an average of 73.2 yards rushing and
just 270 yards overall.The Bengals are averaging two takeaways during the
last four games.The Browns can clinch their first playoff appearance since
2002 with a victory here.This kind of pressure is a new thing for Cleveland.
The Browns are traveling for the third time in four weeks.They are off a
blizzard game, while the Bengals had an extra day of rest.The Bengals enter
the matchup loose with no pressure. Beating their in-state, division rival in
the second-to-last game of the season is the Bengals? Super Bowl.They?ll be
up for this game. CINCINNATI 33-16.
***BEST BET
Atlanta over *Arizona by 7
As an NFL coach, Bobby Petrino made a good college coach. Petrino couldn?t
even wait until his first season as Atlanta?s coach had ended before
jumping ship without the courtesy of telling his team man-to-man about his
decision to go back to the college ranks.Goodbye and good riddance to the
traitor is the reaction of Atlanta?s players and fans. Given now nearly two
weeks to digest the developments of the Michael Vick trial, with the end
result being their former teammate going to prison, and after being blindsighted
by Petrino?s abrupt leaving, look for the Falcons to put forth a
strong effort against a dead Cardinals squad.You aren?t finding the Falcons
shedding any tears that Petrino has escaped Dodge City. Few of the players
liked or respected him. So in fact, look for Petrino?s departure to actually
bring the team closer together for this matchup. Jobs are on the line for
next year and the Atlanta players know it. Interim coach Emmitt Thomas at
least realizes that Jerious Norwood, not Warrick Dunn, should be the team?s
featured back.Arizona?s playoff chances are just about nil after two straight
losses.The Cardinals have lost their two best pass rushers ? Bertrand Berry
and Chike Okeafor - and half of their defensive backfield, including their
best player, safety Adrian Wilson.The Cardinals? defense is a lot more Vanilla
without Wilson, who the team featured in many specific packages. The
result has been the Cardinals have allowed an average of 31.6 points in
their past five games.Arizona?s offense has lost emerging tight end Leonard
Pope.Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are playing at less than 100 percent.
Edgerrin James has had one 100-yard rushing game since Week 2 and
scored one touchdown during the past six games. Kurt Warner remains
highly turnover-prone. He?s been picked off nine times in the last four
games.ATLANTA 31-24.
**OVER: Kansas City at Detroit ? Two teams with nothing to lose and
decent skill position talent should put up big points inside a dome stadium
**PREFERRED
*San Francisco over Tampa Bay by 3
The Buccaneers suffered a letdown during their last road game, two weeks
ago losing to Houston by two touchdowns.Tampa Bay is in a similar spot
this week having just won the NFC South Division with a smashing home
victory against Atlanta.The Buccaneers are flying cross-country to take on
a bad, but eager 49ers squad off a confidence-building home upset of
Cincinnati. The 49ers may have found themselves a quarterback of the
future ? and his name isn?t Alex Smith. Shaun Hill provided San Francisco?s
best quarterback play of the season. The 49ers had a season-high time of
possession and second-highest yardage total against the Bengals. Given a
semblance of a passing attack, Frank Gore was able to rush for a seasonhigh
138 yards. Gore and exciting second-year tight end Vernon Davis are
weapons that Smith and Trent Dilfer weren?t able to fully utilize. The
Buccaneers have little interest in this matchup.It doesn?t hurt either for the
49ers that they have an extra day to prepare having played on Saturday.
Their defense did the job against big-armed Carson Palmer and his star
wide receivers.Tampa Bay?s 37-year-old Jeff Garcia has been battling a bad
back. He hasn?t reached 200 yards passing in his past four starts.SAN FRANCISCO
20-17.
*Jacksonville over Oakland by 23
Jacksonville is off a huge road win against Pittsburgh. But don?t expect a
Jaguars? let-up since they are going for playoff seeding.The Raiders played
the Colts tough at home last week.The Raiders aren?t so good away, especially
traveling cross-country on an early start time.The Raiders had a similar
scenario two weeks ago and were buried by Green Bay, 38-7.
Jacksonville is a physical team like the Packers with a quarterback playing
at a high level. David Garrard has a 16-to-two touchdown-to-interception
ratio.The Jaguars have scored 24, 24, 28, 24, 36, 25, 37 and 29 points in their
past eight games. The Raiders have scored more than two touchdowns
once in their last 10 games.Their best running back, Justin Fargas, may be
out after suffering a knee injury against the Colts. Oakland?s healthy quarterbacks
are rookie JaMarcus Russell and Josh McCown. Russell isn?t ready,
while McCown never was starting material. Oakland?s wide receivers are
slow and their offense line addicted to penalties. Where do the Raiders?
points come from? The Jaguars entered Week 15 No. 2 in rush defense.
Oakland ranked 31st in stopping the run. Fred Taylor is playing his best ball
of the season, rushing for more than 100 yards in each of the last four
games. JACKSONVILLE 33-10.
COLLEGE:
HAWAII BOWL
(December 23 at Honolulu)
BOISE STATE over EAST CAROLINA by 17
For the second time in the early bowls we find ourselves running contrary to our
long-term pattern of favoring the underdogs in games in which the lines are in double
figures, but note that there is not a philosophical shift at all ? it is simply a matter
of the way that these particular games lay out. Instead of coming out flat we can
look for this favorite to bring a lot of fire to the table, with the Broncos eager to
atone for that loss to Hawaii on this very field a month to the day before this one
kicks off, and having already been to this site these elements do not provide a distraction.
It is worth filing away that they voted to turn down hosting a game
against Georgia Tech to make this trip, an indication of their focus. The same can
hardly be said for East Carolina. For the second year in a row they are bowl eligible
only because there are so many games, and not because of merit, and after being
whipped 24-7 by South Florida in LY?s undeserved trip the Pirates are once again
overmatched. They face one of the longest bowl trips of any team in recent memory,
and can not help but be caught up in the atmosphere. And why not, when you
are 70th in the nation in total offense and 98th in total defense, you are not here
because of your football merits. Chris Johnson is a fine RB, but outside of his work
there is not a strength to be found, and that means plenty for the savvy Boise
coaching staff to exploit. BOISE STATE 44-27.
HOOPS
***BEST BET
*New York over Los Angeles Lakers by 8
We make the Knicks a Best Bet about as often as Isiah Thomas does something intelligent.
But this spot appears too tough for the Lakers. It?s Los Angeles fourth road
game in six days. It?s almost like having to play a fifth game in six days because of the
early East Coast start time of noon. Up next for the Lakers is a home game Tuesday
versus Phoenix. So there?s a look-ahead factor, too, working against the Lakers. The
Knicks should get up for this matchup facing Kobe Bryant. NEW YORK 105-97.
NFL:
****BEST BET
*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 17
Carson Palmer torched the Browns for six touchdown passes in the team?s
first meeting ? and the Bengals still lost! Derek Anderson embarrassed
Cincinnati?s defense for 328 yards passing and five touchdowns in a wild
51-45 Week 2 victory.That was in Cleveland. Can you say major revenge?
The Bengals have defeated the Browns each of the past three years in
Cincinnati, covering two of the three. Of course this isn?t the same Browns
club.They are much,much better this year. However, it?s a tough situational
spot for Cleveland. The Bengals have revenge and no playoff pressure.
That makes them dangerous.The Bengals? strong suit is their passing attack
with Palmer throwing to star wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J.
Houshmandzadeh. The Browns? secondary is weakened by multiple
injuries. They?ve surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Rudi Johnson traditionally
runs well against Cleveland, too. He?s rushed for at least 117 yards
in five of the past six meetings, while scoring nine touchdowns in the last
10 games versus Cleveland. The Bengals are 1-6 on the road, but a very
respectable 4-3 at home.They have followed a loss with a victory five times
this season. Until playing poorly at San Francisco last Saturday, the Bengals
defense had held their past five foes to an average of 73.2 yards rushing and
just 270 yards overall.The Bengals are averaging two takeaways during the
last four games.The Browns can clinch their first playoff appearance since
2002 with a victory here.This kind of pressure is a new thing for Cleveland.
The Browns are traveling for the third time in four weeks.They are off a
blizzard game, while the Bengals had an extra day of rest.The Bengals enter
the matchup loose with no pressure. Beating their in-state, division rival in
the second-to-last game of the season is the Bengals? Super Bowl.They?ll be
up for this game. CINCINNATI 33-16.
***BEST BET
Atlanta over *Arizona by 7
As an NFL coach, Bobby Petrino made a good college coach. Petrino couldn?t
even wait until his first season as Atlanta?s coach had ended before
jumping ship without the courtesy of telling his team man-to-man about his
decision to go back to the college ranks.Goodbye and good riddance to the
traitor is the reaction of Atlanta?s players and fans. Given now nearly two
weeks to digest the developments of the Michael Vick trial, with the end
result being their former teammate going to prison, and after being blindsighted
by Petrino?s abrupt leaving, look for the Falcons to put forth a
strong effort against a dead Cardinals squad.You aren?t finding the Falcons
shedding any tears that Petrino has escaped Dodge City. Few of the players
liked or respected him. So in fact, look for Petrino?s departure to actually
bring the team closer together for this matchup. Jobs are on the line for
next year and the Atlanta players know it. Interim coach Emmitt Thomas at
least realizes that Jerious Norwood, not Warrick Dunn, should be the team?s
featured back.Arizona?s playoff chances are just about nil after two straight
losses.The Cardinals have lost their two best pass rushers ? Bertrand Berry
and Chike Okeafor - and half of their defensive backfield, including their
best player, safety Adrian Wilson.The Cardinals? defense is a lot more Vanilla
without Wilson, who the team featured in many specific packages. The
result has been the Cardinals have allowed an average of 31.6 points in
their past five games.Arizona?s offense has lost emerging tight end Leonard
Pope.Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are playing at less than 100 percent.
Edgerrin James has had one 100-yard rushing game since Week 2 and
scored one touchdown during the past six games. Kurt Warner remains
highly turnover-prone. He?s been picked off nine times in the last four
games.ATLANTA 31-24.
**OVER: Kansas City at Detroit ? Two teams with nothing to lose and
decent skill position talent should put up big points inside a dome stadium
**PREFERRED
*San Francisco over Tampa Bay by 3
The Buccaneers suffered a letdown during their last road game, two weeks
ago losing to Houston by two touchdowns.Tampa Bay is in a similar spot
this week having just won the NFC South Division with a smashing home
victory against Atlanta.The Buccaneers are flying cross-country to take on
a bad, but eager 49ers squad off a confidence-building home upset of
Cincinnati. The 49ers may have found themselves a quarterback of the
future ? and his name isn?t Alex Smith. Shaun Hill provided San Francisco?s
best quarterback play of the season. The 49ers had a season-high time of
possession and second-highest yardage total against the Bengals. Given a
semblance of a passing attack, Frank Gore was able to rush for a seasonhigh
138 yards. Gore and exciting second-year tight end Vernon Davis are
weapons that Smith and Trent Dilfer weren?t able to fully utilize. The
Buccaneers have little interest in this matchup.It doesn?t hurt either for the
49ers that they have an extra day to prepare having played on Saturday.
Their defense did the job against big-armed Carson Palmer and his star
wide receivers.Tampa Bay?s 37-year-old Jeff Garcia has been battling a bad
back. He hasn?t reached 200 yards passing in his past four starts.SAN FRANCISCO
20-17.
*Jacksonville over Oakland by 23
Jacksonville is off a huge road win against Pittsburgh. But don?t expect a
Jaguars? let-up since they are going for playoff seeding.The Raiders played
the Colts tough at home last week.The Raiders aren?t so good away, especially
traveling cross-country on an early start time.The Raiders had a similar
scenario two weeks ago and were buried by Green Bay, 38-7.
Jacksonville is a physical team like the Packers with a quarterback playing
at a high level. David Garrard has a 16-to-two touchdown-to-interception
ratio.The Jaguars have scored 24, 24, 28, 24, 36, 25, 37 and 29 points in their
past eight games. The Raiders have scored more than two touchdowns
once in their last 10 games.Their best running back, Justin Fargas, may be
out after suffering a knee injury against the Colts. Oakland?s healthy quarterbacks
are rookie JaMarcus Russell and Josh McCown. Russell isn?t ready,
while McCown never was starting material. Oakland?s wide receivers are
slow and their offense line addicted to penalties. Where do the Raiders?
points come from? The Jaguars entered Week 15 No. 2 in rush defense.
Oakland ranked 31st in stopping the run. Fred Taylor is playing his best ball
of the season, rushing for more than 100 yards in each of the last four
games. JACKSONVILLE 33-10.
COLLEGE:
HAWAII BOWL
(December 23 at Honolulu)
BOISE STATE over EAST CAROLINA by 17
For the second time in the early bowls we find ourselves running contrary to our
long-term pattern of favoring the underdogs in games in which the lines are in double
figures, but note that there is not a philosophical shift at all ? it is simply a matter
of the way that these particular games lay out. Instead of coming out flat we can
look for this favorite to bring a lot of fire to the table, with the Broncos eager to
atone for that loss to Hawaii on this very field a month to the day before this one
kicks off, and having already been to this site these elements do not provide a distraction.
It is worth filing away that they voted to turn down hosting a game
against Georgia Tech to make this trip, an indication of their focus. The same can
hardly be said for East Carolina. For the second year in a row they are bowl eligible
only because there are so many games, and not because of merit, and after being
whipped 24-7 by South Florida in LY?s undeserved trip the Pirates are once again
overmatched. They face one of the longest bowl trips of any team in recent memory,
and can not help but be caught up in the atmosphere. And why not, when you
are 70th in the nation in total offense and 98th in total defense, you are not here
because of your football merits. Chris Johnson is a fine RB, but outside of his work
there is not a strength to be found, and that means plenty for the savvy Boise
coaching staff to exploit. BOISE STATE 44-27.
HOOPS
***BEST BET
*New York over Los Angeles Lakers by 8
We make the Knicks a Best Bet about as often as Isiah Thomas does something intelligent.
But this spot appears too tough for the Lakers. It?s Los Angeles fourth road
game in six days. It?s almost like having to play a fifth game in six days because of the
early East Coast start time of noon. Up next for the Lakers is a home game Tuesday
versus Phoenix. So there?s a look-ahead factor, too, working against the Lakers. The
Knicks should get up for this matchup facing Kobe Bryant. NEW YORK 105-97.
THE SPORTS REPORTER :
SUPER BEST BET
HOUSTON over *INDIANAPOLIS by 14
Ah, vacationing at home, tending to the little details that tend to be forgotten amid other
priorities and responsibilities. If there was ever a team that wraps up when it plays a game
where the result will not affect its long-term goals, it is the Tony Dungy-coached
Indianapolis Colts. They mostly lose and don?t cover in pre-season games, and they mostly
lose and have always not covered in the regular season games after clinching all that
can be clinched. With their underwhelming win in Oakland last weekend, the Colts
improved to 12-2 SU with two games to play. They have already beaten 10-4 SU
Jacksonville twice and cannot be overtaken by the Jags. They cannot catch 14-0 New
England for best record, because New England already won the head-to-head. The #2 AFC
post-season seed is theirs. Therefore, all the ?A? plans are locked in a safe deposit box that
says ?Do Not Open Until January 13,? the day the Colts will host the winner of a First Round
AFC playoff game. ?Jim Sorgi, he?s our man, if he can?t do it?? well, he can?t. Slim Jim is
one of the most underwhelming QBs in the world, and Texans? DE Mario Williams will have
no problems snapping into a Slim Jim to enhance his burgeoning reputation and his sack
total. If Peyton Manning is back there, all the better for Mario, but that?s why Peyton probably
won?t be back there. Dungy errs on the side of caution because nobody connected with
the organization wants to see Sorgi trotting out behind center for the first playoff game.
When both AFC South rivals were trying their best in September, the Texans gave the Colts
the usual division-rivalry tussle in a 30-24 defeat. Houston last played on Thursday night
and has some nice, extra time leading into this. The Texans can plug whomever they want
in at running back ? the placekicker, for all we care ? and we?re not budging off this one.
HOUSTON, 30-16.
BEST BET
CLEVELAND over *CINCINNATI by 14
Cleveland is sitting pretty with a 9-5 record, tied with the Steelers but still second in the
division due to a 3-2 divisional record that falls shy of Pittsburgh?s perfect 5-0 mark, including
2-0 against the Browns. Still, Cleveland has to feel good about how poorly the Steelers
have played in consecutive weeks and it could be that Mike Tomlin?s team is finally feeling
the carryover effects of having such arduous training and practice regimen in training camp
and early on in the season. The motivation exists for the Browns to travel to Cincinnati and
take apart a reeling Bengals team that has not looked synchronized on offense for weeks.
The Bengals? defense? Forget about weeks, it hasn?t been there all season. Early forecasts
for next weekend indicate possible rain showers in Cincinnati, which could mean that the
Browns hitch their wagon to a rejuvenated Jamal Lewis, who has piled up some impressive
statistics in recent weeks and faces a Bengals front seven that allows an average of
120 yards on the ground every week. The AFC North race will remain one of the few interesting
?storylines? heading into the final two weeks of the season. CLEVELAND 31-17
BEST BET
*TENNESSEE over NY JETS by 20
The Titans know that the only way they can make the playoffs is by winning out and hoping
for some luck. As it stands, they are the non-existent #7 seed in the AFC and sit squarely
behind Jacksonville and Cleveland for the two available wild card spots. However, they
remain a mere game behind Cleveland and Pittsburgh and need to beat both of their next
two opponents to catch either AFC North team and subsequently stand a chance in the
tiebreaker scenarios. It?s a longshot, but winners have come from worse odds. They?ll have
the dual benefit of facing a Jets team properly softened by last week?s difficult game
against New England and the continued health of Albert Haynesworth, who has been a
huge difference maker for this year?s Titans squad and remains the leading contender for
Defensive Player of the Year honors despite missing three games. The Jets offense is in
shambles and was reduced to running the option at times in last week?s game. With the
running game expected to be stifled and their own defense not equipped to last even twoand-
a-half quarters against Tennessee?s running game, this one could get ugly early ?
regardless of whether Pennington or Clemens starts this game. TENNESSEE 33-13.
SUPER BEST BET
HOUSTON over *INDIANAPOLIS by 14
Ah, vacationing at home, tending to the little details that tend to be forgotten amid other
priorities and responsibilities. If there was ever a team that wraps up when it plays a game
where the result will not affect its long-term goals, it is the Tony Dungy-coached
Indianapolis Colts. They mostly lose and don?t cover in pre-season games, and they mostly
lose and have always not covered in the regular season games after clinching all that
can be clinched. With their underwhelming win in Oakland last weekend, the Colts
improved to 12-2 SU with two games to play. They have already beaten 10-4 SU
Jacksonville twice and cannot be overtaken by the Jags. They cannot catch 14-0 New
England for best record, because New England already won the head-to-head. The #2 AFC
post-season seed is theirs. Therefore, all the ?A? plans are locked in a safe deposit box that
says ?Do Not Open Until January 13,? the day the Colts will host the winner of a First Round
AFC playoff game. ?Jim Sorgi, he?s our man, if he can?t do it?? well, he can?t. Slim Jim is
one of the most underwhelming QBs in the world, and Texans? DE Mario Williams will have
no problems snapping into a Slim Jim to enhance his burgeoning reputation and his sack
total. If Peyton Manning is back there, all the better for Mario, but that?s why Peyton probably
won?t be back there. Dungy errs on the side of caution because nobody connected with
the organization wants to see Sorgi trotting out behind center for the first playoff game.
When both AFC South rivals were trying their best in September, the Texans gave the Colts
the usual division-rivalry tussle in a 30-24 defeat. Houston last played on Thursday night
and has some nice, extra time leading into this. The Texans can plug whomever they want
in at running back ? the placekicker, for all we care ? and we?re not budging off this one.
HOUSTON, 30-16.
BEST BET
CLEVELAND over *CINCINNATI by 14
Cleveland is sitting pretty with a 9-5 record, tied with the Steelers but still second in the
division due to a 3-2 divisional record that falls shy of Pittsburgh?s perfect 5-0 mark, including
2-0 against the Browns. Still, Cleveland has to feel good about how poorly the Steelers
have played in consecutive weeks and it could be that Mike Tomlin?s team is finally feeling
the carryover effects of having such arduous training and practice regimen in training camp
and early on in the season. The motivation exists for the Browns to travel to Cincinnati and
take apart a reeling Bengals team that has not looked synchronized on offense for weeks.
The Bengals? defense? Forget about weeks, it hasn?t been there all season. Early forecasts
for next weekend indicate possible rain showers in Cincinnati, which could mean that the
Browns hitch their wagon to a rejuvenated Jamal Lewis, who has piled up some impressive
statistics in recent weeks and faces a Bengals front seven that allows an average of
120 yards on the ground every week. The AFC North race will remain one of the few interesting
?storylines? heading into the final two weeks of the season. CLEVELAND 31-17
BEST BET
*TENNESSEE over NY JETS by 20
The Titans know that the only way they can make the playoffs is by winning out and hoping
for some luck. As it stands, they are the non-existent #7 seed in the AFC and sit squarely
behind Jacksonville and Cleveland for the two available wild card spots. However, they
remain a mere game behind Cleveland and Pittsburgh and need to beat both of their next
two opponents to catch either AFC North team and subsequently stand a chance in the
tiebreaker scenarios. It?s a longshot, but winners have come from worse odds. They?ll have
the dual benefit of facing a Jets team properly softened by last week?s difficult game
against New England and the continued health of Albert Haynesworth, who has been a
huge difference maker for this year?s Titans squad and remains the leading contender for
Defensive Player of the Year honors despite missing three games. The Jets offense is in
shambles and was reduced to running the option at times in last week?s game. With the
running game expected to be stifled and their own defense not equipped to last even twoand-
a-half quarters against Tennessee?s running game, this one could get ugly early ?
regardless of whether Pennington or Clemens starts this game. TENNESSEE 33-13.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS: NFL
KEY SELECTIONS
4* TENNESSEE over NY Jets - The Jets beat the Titans 23-16 as a 3 pt AD to open up the 2006
season. QB Collins had only been on the TEN roster for 13 days & the Jets had a 16-0 lead after
converting an int into a 21 yd FG to start the 2H. TEN tied the game at 16 late in the 4Q but the Jets
had a 41 yd KR set up a 7 play 57 yd drive capped by a 12 yd TD pass. TEN drove to the NYJ 8 but
on 4th & 6 threw an inc pass. The Jets are off a moral victory vs NE being helped out by poor weather
conditions losing by 10 & only being outgained by 29 yds. QB Clemens was KO?d (ribs) & his status
is unknown along with WR Coles. The Jets are 2-6 ATS TY vs teams at or above .500 (prior to SNF)
losing by an avg score of 25-13. TEN is off a big win as our 5H NFL Game of the Year vs KC as they
scored on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H while running out the clock on the 5th. The defense forced 2 punts,
2 int & held KC to a FG in the 2H. TEN?s #9 pass defense has been very stout at home TY allowing
184 ypg (54%) with a 6-10 ratio & has pulled in 24 of their 31 sacks at home. The Jets invested a lot
of effort into LW?s game playing for pride after hearing just how bad they would get beat by NE. They
now have to travel vs a team with playoff need off a big win whose defense can & will impose its will.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 NY Jets 6
3* SAN DIEGO over Denver - Mon - The Chargers handed DEN their worst home loss S/?66 with a
41-3 win as a 1 pt AF. SD had a 479-215 yd edge before DEN gained 81 yds on their final 2 drives &
the Broncos had 1 FG on 11 drives. SD outrushed DEN 214 (5.8) to 72 (3.6) & has covered 3 straight.
SD comes in off a dominating win vs DET with a 55-10 as a 3H Key Selection & have the #9 & #2 units
(+10 TO?s) vs DEN?s #5 & #5 units (+3 TO?s). DEN is 26th in scoring defense in that span allowing 31
or more pts in 3 of the L4 games while SD is 1st in scoring defense holding foes to 17 or less in all 4.
This is DEN?s 6th road game in 8 weeks & they are 1-6 ATS on the road overall TY. Cutler is 5-14 ATS
as a starter for DEN & this is his 1st MNF road game. SD continues to fly under the radar due to NE,
IND, DAL & GB but they have covered 4 straight going 6-1 ATS at home TY. Expect a big home finale
from Tomlinson who has rushed for 146 ypg (6.9) the L3W as he takes on DEN?s #29 rush def.
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Denver 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Cleveland over CINCINNATI - CLE won a wild shootout in a 51-45 game as a 7 pt HD & had their
first 300 yd passer, 200 yd rusher & two 100 yd receivers in team history. Anderson had a breakout
game as after going 0-5 in CLE?s 1st 2 drives he finished with 328 yds (71%) with a 5-1 ratio & RB
Lewis had 215 yds rushing (7.7) on the day. Palmer tossed a career high 6 TD?s & finished with 401
yds passing (66%) with his 2nd int coming with :28 left on CLE?s 27 yd line. CLE is 11-5-1 ATS on
the road. CIN is 2-9-1 ATS hosting a team above .500. CIN is off an embarrassing loss to the NFL?s
#32 offense in SF LW as the defense allowed 4 drives of 10 or more plays and SF converted 9 of
15 3rd Dns. CIN was outrushed 156 (4.2) to 61 (3.2) & after not facing an offense ranked in the top
10 since NE they take on CLE?s #10 unit. CLE?s 8 pts LW was their lowest since the season opener
& that was mainly due to playing in a blizzard. CLE is playing solid ball right now with their #10 & #9
units the L4W vs CIN #14 & #7 units. CLE allowed 29 ppg in their first 10 games & just 16 ppg the
L4 as their defense is playing to its strengths. While CIN would love to be the spoiler CLE is handling
success very well for being such a young team due to coaching. RB Lewis who has avg?d 119 ypg
(4.8) is energizing an OL that is #3 in sacks allowed the L4W vs a CIN team #32 in sacks by.
FORECAST: Cleveland 33 CINCINNATI 21
2* Houston (+) over INDIANAPOLIS - Despite the injuries at QB & the secondary & the lack of a run
game the Texans have tied their franchise record for wins with 7. The Colts beat HOU 30-24 but failed
to cover as a 6.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting. HOU came in without WR Johnson & lost 3 more starters on
offense in the game but rallied from a 27-10 defeat late in the 3Q to pull to within 6 with 2:49 left. The
Colts ran 2:24 off the clock & sacked Schaub on the final play of the game as they had a 362-254 yd
edge & Dungy noted how impressed he was with the Texans toughness afterwards. HOU is 2-5 ATS
TY vs .500 or better teams winning the yardage battle in only 1 game & 1-5 ATS on the road with the
only cover vs OAK. Kubiak dipped into his knowledge of the DEN playbook with LW?s 31-13 win as a
1.5 HF. HOU had a 203-129 yd edge in the 2H scoring TD?s on 3 of their 1st 4 drives while allowing
DEN only one 2H scoring drive & stopping them on downs 3x?s. IND sat 5 starters LW & went into the
game without any of its starting DL from opening day. IND struggled vs OAK LW & gave up a 20 play
drive for a TD & OAK was inside the IND 20 with 1:50 left but the officials overlooked a blatant pass
interference pen. Dungy is 0-10 ATS the L2W of the season with IND & with the injury situation & the
generous points the Ugly Dog (17-7) is the play. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) INDIANAPOLIS 20
COLLEGE BOWL GAME:
BOISE ST (10-2) EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
HAWAII BOWL
First meeting. The Pirates are excited about going to Hawaii but are disappointed they are not in the Liberty
Bowl. EC was part of the highest scoring bowl in a 64-61 (2OT) loss to Marshall (?01 GMAC) & is 4-4 (3-4
ATS) in bowls. The Pirates played a tough non-conf slate inc 3 ACC tms & WV (2 Top 10) going 1-3 SU & ATS.
EC has faced 6 bowl tms going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS being outgained by 111 ypg & outscored 34-30. EC has 6
senior starters among the 15 upperclassmen. The Pirates are 8-4 ATS on turf, 19-17 SU (25-11 ATS) overall
under Hotlz, 12-3 ATS as an AD & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under Holtz. Both tms faced S Miss with EC losing
28-21(+1) being outgained 383-300 while Boise dominated 38-16 (-10?) outgaining them 516-345 (most yds
SM surrendered TY). Boise?s hopes of playing in B2B BCS bowls fell short but they still turned in a strong ssn
going 10-2 SU (6-5 ATS) with the two losses coming in AG?s at Wash (24-10, -3) & Hawaii (39-27, +2?). The
Boise players voted to come here vs staying home for the Humanitarian. This is Boise?s 6th cons bowl & its 8th
in 9 yrs & the Broncos are 5-2 SU & ATS. Boise went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY. BSU HC Petersen is
23-2 SU & 13-10 ATS in 2 yrs at Boise. The Broncos closed out the ssn with a 4-1 ATS run & will actually be
playing their 2nd cons gm here in Aloha Stadium as they closed out the reg ssn vs Hawaii in the quasi WAC
Championship. While 2,000 BSU fans made the trek to the Islands on Thanksgiving Day weekend, officials
expect this to be the Broncos worst attended bowl game (previous low 1,200 for ?03 Fort Worth Bowl).
BSU has our #18 rated offense led by QB Tharp who entered ?07 with limited experience having
thrown for only 359 yds (64%) with a 2-3 ratio from ?04-?06. After a slow start he turned it on during a
four-gm stretch and threw for 1,206 yds (302 ypg) & 15 TD. LY RB Johnson ran for 1,713 yds & NCAA-high
25 TD & while defenses keyed in on him TY he still finished 3rd in the WAC in rushing & led the conf in
scoring (10.2 ppg) despite missing two gms (bruised kidney). BSU?s backfield also received a boost with
the addition of a pair of talented Fr RB?s in Avery & Harper. Boise had to replace its top trio of WR?s from
LY (James, Raab & Naanee) who combined for 1,777 yds & 14 TD, but WR Childs stepped up in a big
way TY en route to setting a BSU single-ssn rec record. Four of Boise?s five starters returned along the
OL TY which avg 6?4? 305 lbs & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while giving up 18 sks (4.3%). Boise has our
#40 rated defense & racked up 32 sks while limiting tms to 3.4 ypc on the ground. The Broncos? DL avg
6?3? 265 & is anchored by two Jr?s & Sr?s. Its LB corps is led by a quartet of Jr?s in Gingg, Brady, Shields
& Dobbs (led tm in ints). Boise is ranked #14 in pass eff def all?g 212 ypg (54%) with a 16-14 ratio. BSU
features our #14 ST unit led by PK Brotzman who missed just 2 of 17 FG att (from 49 & 51 yds).
EC has our #73 rated offense & is led by 2 QB?s who split time in Pinkney & Kass who played in the
Papajohns.com Bowl LY due to an injury & hit 10-19 (53%) for 138 yds. Holtz uses them as situational QB?s
& it hurt down the stretch as they avg just 174 ypg rush (56%) the L/3 as neither QB could get in a rhythm.
Both QB?s spread the ball around as 7 rec?s have DD catches. RB Johnson was challenged by Holtz coming
into his Sr ssn & answered with a career high in rush yds & became the Pirates? all-time leader in all-purpose
yds. The OL is the best Holtz has had in his 3 yrs but took a lot of tweaking to get it there. The OL is led by
Sr?s Coffman & Butler & the unit avg 6?5? 295 opening holes for 171 ypg (4.7), the most S/?01. The Pirates all?d
24 sks (6.4%) but just 4 in the L/4 gms. The Pirate D ranks #84 but only has 2 Sr def starters & the strength
is the DL. The starting front 4 all?d 146 ypg rush (3.9), its lowest ypc allowed S/?01 & also had 31 tfl. The DL
avg 6?4? 275 & has 20.5 of the teams 26 sks (79%). The LB corps has 3 of the top 5 tacklers but has been
nicked up all year. EC struggled in the secondary & ranks #99 in our pass eff D all?g 291 ypg pass (most in
L/20Y) 64% with a 24-15 ratio. On the ssn they all?d 5 foes 335+ pass ypg. However, the Pirates are +13 in
TO?s ranking #6 in the NCAA. EC is just #95 in ST?s with KR Johnson (28.5) being the lone standout.
The Broncos followed up their undefeated 12-0 ?06 season with a solid 10-2 record. That however is
deemed a disappointment at Boise as a win vs Hawaii would have placed them in the BCS pool. They did
vote to travel to the Islands for a second straight game instead of hosting the Humanitarian Bowl. East
Carolina finished at 7-5 but 3 losses were to BCS schools inc 2 BCS bowl teams (VT & WV). The Pirates will
benefit from the time off to regain their health and they have been a lethal underdog under HC Holtz with a
12-3 ATS mark as an AD. The Pirates are an opportunistic team and will relish this role as a big underdog.
FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) 30 Boise St 34 RATING: 2★
KEY SELECTIONS
4* TENNESSEE over NY Jets - The Jets beat the Titans 23-16 as a 3 pt AD to open up the 2006
season. QB Collins had only been on the TEN roster for 13 days & the Jets had a 16-0 lead after
converting an int into a 21 yd FG to start the 2H. TEN tied the game at 16 late in the 4Q but the Jets
had a 41 yd KR set up a 7 play 57 yd drive capped by a 12 yd TD pass. TEN drove to the NYJ 8 but
on 4th & 6 threw an inc pass. The Jets are off a moral victory vs NE being helped out by poor weather
conditions losing by 10 & only being outgained by 29 yds. QB Clemens was KO?d (ribs) & his status
is unknown along with WR Coles. The Jets are 2-6 ATS TY vs teams at or above .500 (prior to SNF)
losing by an avg score of 25-13. TEN is off a big win as our 5H NFL Game of the Year vs KC as they
scored on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H while running out the clock on the 5th. The defense forced 2 punts,
2 int & held KC to a FG in the 2H. TEN?s #9 pass defense has been very stout at home TY allowing
184 ypg (54%) with a 6-10 ratio & has pulled in 24 of their 31 sacks at home. The Jets invested a lot
of effort into LW?s game playing for pride after hearing just how bad they would get beat by NE. They
now have to travel vs a team with playoff need off a big win whose defense can & will impose its will.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 NY Jets 6
3* SAN DIEGO over Denver - Mon - The Chargers handed DEN their worst home loss S/?66 with a
41-3 win as a 1 pt AF. SD had a 479-215 yd edge before DEN gained 81 yds on their final 2 drives &
the Broncos had 1 FG on 11 drives. SD outrushed DEN 214 (5.8) to 72 (3.6) & has covered 3 straight.
SD comes in off a dominating win vs DET with a 55-10 as a 3H Key Selection & have the #9 & #2 units
(+10 TO?s) vs DEN?s #5 & #5 units (+3 TO?s). DEN is 26th in scoring defense in that span allowing 31
or more pts in 3 of the L4 games while SD is 1st in scoring defense holding foes to 17 or less in all 4.
This is DEN?s 6th road game in 8 weeks & they are 1-6 ATS on the road overall TY. Cutler is 5-14 ATS
as a starter for DEN & this is his 1st MNF road game. SD continues to fly under the radar due to NE,
IND, DAL & GB but they have covered 4 straight going 6-1 ATS at home TY. Expect a big home finale
from Tomlinson who has rushed for 146 ypg (6.9) the L3W as he takes on DEN?s #29 rush def.
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Denver 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Cleveland over CINCINNATI - CLE won a wild shootout in a 51-45 game as a 7 pt HD & had their
first 300 yd passer, 200 yd rusher & two 100 yd receivers in team history. Anderson had a breakout
game as after going 0-5 in CLE?s 1st 2 drives he finished with 328 yds (71%) with a 5-1 ratio & RB
Lewis had 215 yds rushing (7.7) on the day. Palmer tossed a career high 6 TD?s & finished with 401
yds passing (66%) with his 2nd int coming with :28 left on CLE?s 27 yd line. CLE is 11-5-1 ATS on
the road. CIN is 2-9-1 ATS hosting a team above .500. CIN is off an embarrassing loss to the NFL?s
#32 offense in SF LW as the defense allowed 4 drives of 10 or more plays and SF converted 9 of
15 3rd Dns. CIN was outrushed 156 (4.2) to 61 (3.2) & after not facing an offense ranked in the top
10 since NE they take on CLE?s #10 unit. CLE?s 8 pts LW was their lowest since the season opener
& that was mainly due to playing in a blizzard. CLE is playing solid ball right now with their #10 & #9
units the L4W vs CIN #14 & #7 units. CLE allowed 29 ppg in their first 10 games & just 16 ppg the
L4 as their defense is playing to its strengths. While CIN would love to be the spoiler CLE is handling
success very well for being such a young team due to coaching. RB Lewis who has avg?d 119 ypg
(4.8) is energizing an OL that is #3 in sacks allowed the L4W vs a CIN team #32 in sacks by.
FORECAST: Cleveland 33 CINCINNATI 21
2* Houston (+) over INDIANAPOLIS - Despite the injuries at QB & the secondary & the lack of a run
game the Texans have tied their franchise record for wins with 7. The Colts beat HOU 30-24 but failed
to cover as a 6.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting. HOU came in without WR Johnson & lost 3 more starters on
offense in the game but rallied from a 27-10 defeat late in the 3Q to pull to within 6 with 2:49 left. The
Colts ran 2:24 off the clock & sacked Schaub on the final play of the game as they had a 362-254 yd
edge & Dungy noted how impressed he was with the Texans toughness afterwards. HOU is 2-5 ATS
TY vs .500 or better teams winning the yardage battle in only 1 game & 1-5 ATS on the road with the
only cover vs OAK. Kubiak dipped into his knowledge of the DEN playbook with LW?s 31-13 win as a
1.5 HF. HOU had a 203-129 yd edge in the 2H scoring TD?s on 3 of their 1st 4 drives while allowing
DEN only one 2H scoring drive & stopping them on downs 3x?s. IND sat 5 starters LW & went into the
game without any of its starting DL from opening day. IND struggled vs OAK LW & gave up a 20 play
drive for a TD & OAK was inside the IND 20 with 1:50 left but the officials overlooked a blatant pass
interference pen. Dungy is 0-10 ATS the L2W of the season with IND & with the injury situation & the
generous points the Ugly Dog (17-7) is the play. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) INDIANAPOLIS 20
COLLEGE BOWL GAME:
BOISE ST (10-2) EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
HAWAII BOWL
First meeting. The Pirates are excited about going to Hawaii but are disappointed they are not in the Liberty
Bowl. EC was part of the highest scoring bowl in a 64-61 (2OT) loss to Marshall (?01 GMAC) & is 4-4 (3-4
ATS) in bowls. The Pirates played a tough non-conf slate inc 3 ACC tms & WV (2 Top 10) going 1-3 SU & ATS.
EC has faced 6 bowl tms going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS being outgained by 111 ypg & outscored 34-30. EC has 6
senior starters among the 15 upperclassmen. The Pirates are 8-4 ATS on turf, 19-17 SU (25-11 ATS) overall
under Hotlz, 12-3 ATS as an AD & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under Holtz. Both tms faced S Miss with EC losing
28-21(+1) being outgained 383-300 while Boise dominated 38-16 (-10?) outgaining them 516-345 (most yds
SM surrendered TY). Boise?s hopes of playing in B2B BCS bowls fell short but they still turned in a strong ssn
going 10-2 SU (6-5 ATS) with the two losses coming in AG?s at Wash (24-10, -3) & Hawaii (39-27, +2?). The
Boise players voted to come here vs staying home for the Humanitarian. This is Boise?s 6th cons bowl & its 8th
in 9 yrs & the Broncos are 5-2 SU & ATS. Boise went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY. BSU HC Petersen is
23-2 SU & 13-10 ATS in 2 yrs at Boise. The Broncos closed out the ssn with a 4-1 ATS run & will actually be
playing their 2nd cons gm here in Aloha Stadium as they closed out the reg ssn vs Hawaii in the quasi WAC
Championship. While 2,000 BSU fans made the trek to the Islands on Thanksgiving Day weekend, officials
expect this to be the Broncos worst attended bowl game (previous low 1,200 for ?03 Fort Worth Bowl).
BSU has our #18 rated offense led by QB Tharp who entered ?07 with limited experience having
thrown for only 359 yds (64%) with a 2-3 ratio from ?04-?06. After a slow start he turned it on during a
four-gm stretch and threw for 1,206 yds (302 ypg) & 15 TD. LY RB Johnson ran for 1,713 yds & NCAA-high
25 TD & while defenses keyed in on him TY he still finished 3rd in the WAC in rushing & led the conf in
scoring (10.2 ppg) despite missing two gms (bruised kidney). BSU?s backfield also received a boost with
the addition of a pair of talented Fr RB?s in Avery & Harper. Boise had to replace its top trio of WR?s from
LY (James, Raab & Naanee) who combined for 1,777 yds & 14 TD, but WR Childs stepped up in a big
way TY en route to setting a BSU single-ssn rec record. Four of Boise?s five starters returned along the
OL TY which avg 6?4? 305 lbs & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while giving up 18 sks (4.3%). Boise has our
#40 rated defense & racked up 32 sks while limiting tms to 3.4 ypc on the ground. The Broncos? DL avg
6?3? 265 & is anchored by two Jr?s & Sr?s. Its LB corps is led by a quartet of Jr?s in Gingg, Brady, Shields
& Dobbs (led tm in ints). Boise is ranked #14 in pass eff def all?g 212 ypg (54%) with a 16-14 ratio. BSU
features our #14 ST unit led by PK Brotzman who missed just 2 of 17 FG att (from 49 & 51 yds).
EC has our #73 rated offense & is led by 2 QB?s who split time in Pinkney & Kass who played in the
Papajohns.com Bowl LY due to an injury & hit 10-19 (53%) for 138 yds. Holtz uses them as situational QB?s
& it hurt down the stretch as they avg just 174 ypg rush (56%) the L/3 as neither QB could get in a rhythm.
Both QB?s spread the ball around as 7 rec?s have DD catches. RB Johnson was challenged by Holtz coming
into his Sr ssn & answered with a career high in rush yds & became the Pirates? all-time leader in all-purpose
yds. The OL is the best Holtz has had in his 3 yrs but took a lot of tweaking to get it there. The OL is led by
Sr?s Coffman & Butler & the unit avg 6?5? 295 opening holes for 171 ypg (4.7), the most S/?01. The Pirates all?d
24 sks (6.4%) but just 4 in the L/4 gms. The Pirate D ranks #84 but only has 2 Sr def starters & the strength
is the DL. The starting front 4 all?d 146 ypg rush (3.9), its lowest ypc allowed S/?01 & also had 31 tfl. The DL
avg 6?4? 275 & has 20.5 of the teams 26 sks (79%). The LB corps has 3 of the top 5 tacklers but has been
nicked up all year. EC struggled in the secondary & ranks #99 in our pass eff D all?g 291 ypg pass (most in
L/20Y) 64% with a 24-15 ratio. On the ssn they all?d 5 foes 335+ pass ypg. However, the Pirates are +13 in
TO?s ranking #6 in the NCAA. EC is just #95 in ST?s with KR Johnson (28.5) being the lone standout.
The Broncos followed up their undefeated 12-0 ?06 season with a solid 10-2 record. That however is
deemed a disappointment at Boise as a win vs Hawaii would have placed them in the BCS pool. They did
vote to travel to the Islands for a second straight game instead of hosting the Humanitarian Bowl. East
Carolina finished at 7-5 but 3 losses were to BCS schools inc 2 BCS bowl teams (VT & WV). The Pirates will
benefit from the time off to regain their health and they have been a lethal underdog under HC Holtz with a
12-3 ATS mark as an AD. The Pirates are an opportunistic team and will relish this role as a big underdog.
FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) 30 Boise St 34 RATING: 2★
KILLER SPORTS / MTI NFL
MTi?s Side Play of the YEAR!!
5-Star Kansas City +4? over DETROIT ? The Lions were 6-2 and
are now 6-8 and out of the playoffs. They have had so many tough
losses and near upsets that they simply can?t have much left for this
one. The Chiefs have a young QB that needs work an a rookie wide
receiver that would love to build his numbers. Kansas City should
perform well here as they are 6-0 ATS on the road when facing a team
that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-todate,
covering by an average of 9.2 ppg. The Lions have averaged only
26:46 of possession time this season ? and this includes an overtime
session vs the Vikings.
Last week, the Chiefs? defense played well when the Titans were
deep in their territory. Tennessee was a very poor 1-5 inside the red
zone vs the Chiefs last week, kicking four short field goals. This is a
good sign for the Chiefs chances to cover this number, as Kansas City is
6-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which they stopped their
opponent on at least two red zones attempts, covering by an average
of 8.6 ppg and 4-0 ATS when they stopped their opponent on at least
three red zone attempts, covering by an average of 10.5 ppg.
Detroit is off a 51-14 loss to the Chargers in San Diego that virtually
eliminated them from the playoffs. Minnesota?s win on Monday
Night over the Bears mathematically eliminated them. The Lions?
effort for most of the season was nothing short of heroic. Last week,
they ran out of gas. Six weeks ago, Kitna?s guarantee of a 10-win
season and the playoffs looked like a heavy favorite. Now they have
absolutely nothing to play for. They are tapped out. One revealing
statistic is that the Lions have been scoreless in the fourth quarter in
each of their last two losses. This is the sign of a team that has thrown
in the towel. Indeed, the league is 0-9-1 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a home
favorite after losses in each of the last two weeks in which they were
scoreless in the fourth quarter. In addition, the Lions are 0-7 ATS
(-11.3 ppg) since September 27, 1992 as a home favorite after playing
on the road as a TD+ dog, 0-6 ATS (-9.7 ppg) the week after a
game in which they committed at least four turnovers and 0-6 ATS
(-10.2 ppg) as a home favorite the week after a game in which they
had fewer than 50 yards rushing. Perhaps the most telling of these is
the Lions record after a game in which they committed at least four
turnovers. This stat is disheartening for both the offense and defense.
Not only are the Lions 0-6 ATS in this situation, they are 0-6 straight
up, losing by an average of 13 ppg. This trend is featured in the box
at the bottom of this page.
Finally, the Detroit is an impotent 0-6 ATS as a favorite when
their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak, losing each of the last
five games straight up, while failing to cover by an average of 14.3
ppg. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on Kansas City
as well.
MTi?s OU Play of the Week!!
5-Star Green Bay at Chicago OVER 39 ? The Packers did win
and cover vs the Rams last week but the stats tell a different story.
Green Bay had 85 fewer total yards, four fewer first downs and 12:48
MORE possession time. We look for a high scoring game here, as the
league as a whole is 13-0 OU as a road favorite after a game in which
they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time, going over by an
average of 13.3 ppg. The Packers themselves are 6-0 OU as a road
favorite the week after a win in which they were outgained, going
over by an average of 10.4 ppg and 6-0 OU the week after having at
least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date
average as a favorite, staying under by an average of 15.4 ppg.
Green Bay is winning games easily and when this happens, the
offense plays with more confidence and the defense doesn?t pay with
a sense of urgency. Not surprisingly, this results in high-scoring games.
The Packers are 7-0 OU (7.6 ppg) as a road favorite when they won by
double digits in each of the past two weeks. The Bears are vulnerable
to a good passing game and that?s the Packers? strength. Chicago is
ranked 27th in the league in completion percentage allowed and the
Packers will exploit this weakness. Green Bay is 8-0 OU (+9.9 ppg)
as a road favorite when facing a team that has allowed at least 65%
completions season-to-date.
Green Bay scored three touchdowns and kicked four field goals
last week in St Louis. This is a strong OVER situation, as the Packers
are 5-0 OU as a favorite after a game as a favorite in which they made
more field goals than touchdown
MTi?s FORECAST: Kansas City 17 DETROIT 16
4-Star SAN FRANCISCO +7 over Tampa Bay ? The Falcons
expected to play well last week, but they got down big early when
Redman threw an INT for a TD and allowed Tampa Bay?s first ever
franchise kick return for a TD. After that, the Falcons threw in the
towel, committing stupid penalties and playing without passion. The
win over Atlanta clinched the division for the Bucs, and we expect
they?ll be flat here. Tampa Bay is 0-8 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a road favorite
after a straight up win as a favorite and 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) on the road
vs a non-divisional opponent when they have a divisional opponent
next week. In addition, the Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-7.5 ppg) when
they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last
week at home as a favorite and 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since December
01, 2002 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a
straight up win.
The 49ers are off a 20-13 upset win over the Bengals and this win
can be attributed to their embattled defense. We look for the offense to
continue to improve and ?pick-up? the defense here. Nothing is more
motivating to an offense than a good performance by their defense.
Indeed, the league is 8-0 ATS at home after they allowed at least 10
points fewer than their season-to-date average at home. Teams in this
situation have scored an average of 29.0 ppg and have won the last
MTi?s Teaser Play of the Week
To start this week?s Three-Teamer, we?ll take the Titans from -9
top +1, as they are 20-0 ATSp10 as a 7+ favorite.
Next, we?ll add the Broncos, who are 20-0 ATSp10 as a dog vs a
divisional opponent before playing at home. The Chargers should have
no desire to blow out the Broncos again and create revenge motivation
next season. Denver +19 seems pretty safe in the last Monday-Nighter
of the season.
Finally we?ll take the total in the Eagles Saints game down ten
points and play the OVER. New Orleans is 28-0 OUm10 after a
straight up win at home.
That makes are 3-team, ten-point teaser:
5-Star Tennessee +1, Denver +19, New Orleans OVER 37
MTi?s Side Play of the YEAR!!
5-Star Kansas City +4? over DETROIT ? The Lions were 6-2 and
are now 6-8 and out of the playoffs. They have had so many tough
losses and near upsets that they simply can?t have much left for this
one. The Chiefs have a young QB that needs work an a rookie wide
receiver that would love to build his numbers. Kansas City should
perform well here as they are 6-0 ATS on the road when facing a team
that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-todate,
covering by an average of 9.2 ppg. The Lions have averaged only
26:46 of possession time this season ? and this includes an overtime
session vs the Vikings.
Last week, the Chiefs? defense played well when the Titans were
deep in their territory. Tennessee was a very poor 1-5 inside the red
zone vs the Chiefs last week, kicking four short field goals. This is a
good sign for the Chiefs chances to cover this number, as Kansas City is
6-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which they stopped their
opponent on at least two red zones attempts, covering by an average
of 8.6 ppg and 4-0 ATS when they stopped their opponent on at least
three red zone attempts, covering by an average of 10.5 ppg.
Detroit is off a 51-14 loss to the Chargers in San Diego that virtually
eliminated them from the playoffs. Minnesota?s win on Monday
Night over the Bears mathematically eliminated them. The Lions?
effort for most of the season was nothing short of heroic. Last week,
they ran out of gas. Six weeks ago, Kitna?s guarantee of a 10-win
season and the playoffs looked like a heavy favorite. Now they have
absolutely nothing to play for. They are tapped out. One revealing
statistic is that the Lions have been scoreless in the fourth quarter in
each of their last two losses. This is the sign of a team that has thrown
in the towel. Indeed, the league is 0-9-1 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a home
favorite after losses in each of the last two weeks in which they were
scoreless in the fourth quarter. In addition, the Lions are 0-7 ATS
(-11.3 ppg) since September 27, 1992 as a home favorite after playing
on the road as a TD+ dog, 0-6 ATS (-9.7 ppg) the week after a
game in which they committed at least four turnovers and 0-6 ATS
(-10.2 ppg) as a home favorite the week after a game in which they
had fewer than 50 yards rushing. Perhaps the most telling of these is
the Lions record after a game in which they committed at least four
turnovers. This stat is disheartening for both the offense and defense.
Not only are the Lions 0-6 ATS in this situation, they are 0-6 straight
up, losing by an average of 13 ppg. This trend is featured in the box
at the bottom of this page.
Finally, the Detroit is an impotent 0-6 ATS as a favorite when
their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak, losing each of the last
five games straight up, while failing to cover by an average of 14.3
ppg. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on Kansas City
as well.
MTi?s OU Play of the Week!!
5-Star Green Bay at Chicago OVER 39 ? The Packers did win
and cover vs the Rams last week but the stats tell a different story.
Green Bay had 85 fewer total yards, four fewer first downs and 12:48
MORE possession time. We look for a high scoring game here, as the
league as a whole is 13-0 OU as a road favorite after a game in which
they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time, going over by an
average of 13.3 ppg. The Packers themselves are 6-0 OU as a road
favorite the week after a win in which they were outgained, going
over by an average of 10.4 ppg and 6-0 OU the week after having at
least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date
average as a favorite, staying under by an average of 15.4 ppg.
Green Bay is winning games easily and when this happens, the
offense plays with more confidence and the defense doesn?t pay with
a sense of urgency. Not surprisingly, this results in high-scoring games.
The Packers are 7-0 OU (7.6 ppg) as a road favorite when they won by
double digits in each of the past two weeks. The Bears are vulnerable
to a good passing game and that?s the Packers? strength. Chicago is
ranked 27th in the league in completion percentage allowed and the
Packers will exploit this weakness. Green Bay is 8-0 OU (+9.9 ppg)
as a road favorite when facing a team that has allowed at least 65%
completions season-to-date.
Green Bay scored three touchdowns and kicked four field goals
last week in St Louis. This is a strong OVER situation, as the Packers
are 5-0 OU as a favorite after a game as a favorite in which they made
more field goals than touchdown
MTi?s FORECAST: Kansas City 17 DETROIT 16
4-Star SAN FRANCISCO +7 over Tampa Bay ? The Falcons
expected to play well last week, but they got down big early when
Redman threw an INT for a TD and allowed Tampa Bay?s first ever
franchise kick return for a TD. After that, the Falcons threw in the
towel, committing stupid penalties and playing without passion. The
win over Atlanta clinched the division for the Bucs, and we expect
they?ll be flat here. Tampa Bay is 0-8 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a road favorite
after a straight up win as a favorite and 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) on the road
vs a non-divisional opponent when they have a divisional opponent
next week. In addition, the Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-7.5 ppg) when
they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last
week at home as a favorite and 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since December
01, 2002 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a
straight up win.
The 49ers are off a 20-13 upset win over the Bengals and this win
can be attributed to their embattled defense. We look for the offense to
continue to improve and ?pick-up? the defense here. Nothing is more
motivating to an offense than a good performance by their defense.
Indeed, the league is 8-0 ATS at home after they allowed at least 10
points fewer than their season-to-date average at home. Teams in this
situation have scored an average of 29.0 ppg and have won the last
MTi?s Teaser Play of the Week
To start this week?s Three-Teamer, we?ll take the Titans from -9
top +1, as they are 20-0 ATSp10 as a 7+ favorite.
Next, we?ll add the Broncos, who are 20-0 ATSp10 as a dog vs a
divisional opponent before playing at home. The Chargers should have
no desire to blow out the Broncos again and create revenge motivation
next season. Denver +19 seems pretty safe in the last Monday-Nighter
of the season.
Finally we?ll take the total in the Eagles Saints game down ten
points and play the OVER. New Orleans is 28-0 OUm10 after a
straight up win at home.
That makes are 3-team, ten-point teaser:
5-Star Tennessee +1, Denver +19, New Orleans OVER 37
TEDDY COVERS (13-1-1)
BEST BET
Green Bay -7.5 at Chicago O/U NL
Recommendation: Green Bay
Disappointed, underachieving veteran teams are rarely worth supporting
late in the season, and the Bears are no exception. To make
matters even worse for Chicago, they have all kinds of matchup
problems against the Packers, making a blowout highly likely.
The Bears can?t run the football, ranked 30th out of 32 teams in
the NFL in rushing yardage this season. They haven?t cracked 85
yards on the ground in nine of their last eleven games, and can?t
be expected to reach that total here either against the stout Packers
defense. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they have
no ability to pass the football either. Third-string quarterback Kyle
Orton has been forced into service after injuries to Rex Grossman
and Brian Griese. Orton was a disaster as a starter back in 2005,
and he?s been sitting on the end of the bench ever since, not throwing
a single regular season pass attempt in two full years. Meanwhile,
the Bears defense has completely fallen apart, allowing nearly
four touchdowns per game over the last month. Chicago ranks
among the five worst teams in the league against the pass, giving
up a truly woeful 7.2 yards per pass attempt. That?s very bad news
against a red hot Brett Favre, who has guided the Packers to victory
at Soldier Field twelve times in their last thirteen visits. And
with Ryan Grant continuing to provide balance on the ground, we
can expect Green Bay to avenge their earlier season loss to the
Bears. Let?s not forget that the Packers got new life in the battle for
NFC home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Cowboys
loss to Philly last Sunday, giving them extra motivation here
Teddy Covers--------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Texans)
BEST BET
Green Bay -7.5 at Chicago O/U NL
Recommendation: Green Bay
Disappointed, underachieving veteran teams are rarely worth supporting
late in the season, and the Bears are no exception. To make
matters even worse for Chicago, they have all kinds of matchup
problems against the Packers, making a blowout highly likely.
The Bears can?t run the football, ranked 30th out of 32 teams in
the NFL in rushing yardage this season. They haven?t cracked 85
yards on the ground in nine of their last eleven games, and can?t
be expected to reach that total here either against the stout Packers
defense. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they have
no ability to pass the football either. Third-string quarterback Kyle
Orton has been forced into service after injuries to Rex Grossman
and Brian Griese. Orton was a disaster as a starter back in 2005,
and he?s been sitting on the end of the bench ever since, not throwing
a single regular season pass attempt in two full years. Meanwhile,
the Bears defense has completely fallen apart, allowing nearly
four touchdowns per game over the last month. Chicago ranks
among the five worst teams in the league against the pass, giving
up a truly woeful 7.2 yards per pass attempt. That?s very bad news
against a red hot Brett Favre, who has guided the Packers to victory
at Soldier Field twelve times in their last thirteen visits. And
with Ryan Grant continuing to provide balance on the ground, we
can expect Green Bay to avenge their earlier season loss to the
Bears. Let?s not forget that the Packers got new life in the battle for
NFC home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Cowboys
loss to Philly last Sunday, giving them extra motivation here
Teddy Covers--------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Texans)
Last edited:
DAVID JONES (11- 4)
BEST BET
Houston +7.5 at Indianapolis O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Houston
Since coming into the NFL as a franchise in 2002, Houston is 1-10
against the Colts with an 0-5 mark at the RCA Dome. While the
Texans are not going to be a playoff club this season, the 2007
campaign could be a stepping stone for some future trips to the
postseason. With a win in either of their final two games, the Texans
can avoid a losing season for the first time in their history. Houston
has played its best football of the season in the final quarter of
their schedule with consecutive double-digit wins over Tampa Bay
and Denver. DE Mario Williams has lived up to his top pick status
with 13 sacks to lead a young defense that is making progress this
year. Despite injuries to QB Matt Schaub and RB Ahman Green,
the Texans? offense is still an efficient group behind reserve QB
Sage Rosenfels. While Houston has a definite goal that is in front
of them, the defending World Champion Colts will be building towards
their next significant game in four weeks. With last week?s
win in Oakland, the Colts have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC
with a bye into the divisional playoffs. While Indy will try to win
this contest, the Colts will be more concerned about keeping their
key players healthy heading into the postseason. Head coach Tony
Dungy will, to some degree, treat this game like a preseason contest.
With some key players already on the shelf with injuries, Indy
can?t afford to have any more wounded players by the time the
playoffs come around. With a tremendous situational edge, the
Texans are in a position to cash a ticket in this AFC South matchup.
BEST BET
Houston +7.5 at Indianapolis O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Houston
Since coming into the NFL as a franchise in 2002, Houston is 1-10
against the Colts with an 0-5 mark at the RCA Dome. While the
Texans are not going to be a playoff club this season, the 2007
campaign could be a stepping stone for some future trips to the
postseason. With a win in either of their final two games, the Texans
can avoid a losing season for the first time in their history. Houston
has played its best football of the season in the final quarter of
their schedule with consecutive double-digit wins over Tampa Bay
and Denver. DE Mario Williams has lived up to his top pick status
with 13 sacks to lead a young defense that is making progress this
year. Despite injuries to QB Matt Schaub and RB Ahman Green,
the Texans? offense is still an efficient group behind reserve QB
Sage Rosenfels. While Houston has a definite goal that is in front
of them, the defending World Champion Colts will be building towards
their next significant game in four weeks. With last week?s
win in Oakland, the Colts have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC
with a bye into the divisional playoffs. While Indy will try to win
this contest, the Colts will be more concerned about keeping their
key players healthy heading into the postseason. Head coach Tony
Dungy will, to some degree, treat this game like a preseason contest.
With some key players already on the shelf with injuries, Indy
can?t afford to have any more wounded players by the time the
playoffs come around. With a tremendous situational edge, the
Texans are in a position to cash a ticket in this AFC South matchup.
ROB VENO (10- 3 -2)
BEST BET
Baltimore at Seattle -10 O/U NL
Recommendation: Seattle
The pathetic Ravens sank to their lowest depths in franchise
history last week when they became the first team Miami defeated
this season. Every phase of their game is now at rock
bottom level making them the perfect doormat for Seattle to
rout this Sunday. Fundamentally, Baltimore is overmatched by
a large amount in a trio of areas which figure to decisively mold
this result in favor of the Seahawks. The Ravens? pass protection
against the sack happy and disruptive Seattle front seven
will be problematic all day no matter who plays quarterback for
the visitors. Starter Kyle Boller who was injured last week is far
too stationary of a target and rookie backup Troy Smith is far
to green to succeed through the air in this extremely loud and
hostile environment. Baltimore?s lack of aerial success will be
further enhanced by the superior defensive backfield of the Seahawks
which should easily blanket the Ravens mediocre receiving
corps. Unfortunately for Baltimore, running back Willis McGahee
alone won?t be able to mount any substantial offense which
will likely leave the Ravens behind early and unable to stop the
margin from increasing. Seattle?s pass offense which churned
out another 274 yards in last week?s loss to Carolina will find
Baltimore?s depleted secondary easy pickings here. Expect the
humiliated Ravens to go through the motions here while Seattle
looks to bounce back with a strong home effort. Seattle?s 4-0 SU
and ATS in their last four home games with a winning margin of
19.8 points per game supplies sound technical support as well
BEST BET
Baltimore at Seattle -10 O/U NL
Recommendation: Seattle
The pathetic Ravens sank to their lowest depths in franchise
history last week when they became the first team Miami defeated
this season. Every phase of their game is now at rock
bottom level making them the perfect doormat for Seattle to
rout this Sunday. Fundamentally, Baltimore is overmatched by
a large amount in a trio of areas which figure to decisively mold
this result in favor of the Seahawks. The Ravens? pass protection
against the sack happy and disruptive Seattle front seven
will be problematic all day no matter who plays quarterback for
the visitors. Starter Kyle Boller who was injured last week is far
too stationary of a target and rookie backup Troy Smith is far
to green to succeed through the air in this extremely loud and
hostile environment. Baltimore?s lack of aerial success will be
further enhanced by the superior defensive backfield of the Seahawks
which should easily blanket the Ravens mediocre receiving
corps. Unfortunately for Baltimore, running back Willis McGahee
alone won?t be able to mount any substantial offense which
will likely leave the Ravens behind early and unable to stop the
margin from increasing. Seattle?s pass offense which churned
out another 274 yards in last week?s loss to Carolina will find
Baltimore?s depleted secondary easy pickings here. Expect the
humiliated Ravens to go through the motions here while Seattle
looks to bounce back with a strong home effort. Seattle?s 4-0 SU
and ATS in their last four home games with a winning margin of
19.8 points per game supplies sound technical support as well
SPORTS MEMO GUYS:
----BRENT CROW-----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Cleveland -3 at Cincinnati O/U 47
Recommendation: Cleveland
The Browns moved into a tie for the AFC North Division lead with
Pittsburgh last week with their win over the Bills. Cleveland is now
9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS on the year as they still get little respect from
bettors. They have played just one team with a winning record in
the last five weeks, yet have not been more than a field goal favorite
in those games until laying 4.5 to Buffalo last week. This week
they are just -3 at a bad Cincinnati team that lost SU as eight-point
favorites to the woeful 49ers last week. For all of their talent, the
Bengals are 5-9 SU on the year and are getting worse by the week
it seems. They have failed to score more than 19 points in the last
three weeks and have covered the number just three times in their
last 11 games. This is a pretty fierce rivalry, and that should bring
out a good effort from the Bengals this week at home, but it still
will not be enough to stop the Browns. Cleveland scored 51 points
against this defense in week two and the offense hasn?t slowed
down much since then other than in bad weather games. The rushing
attack is getting better as Jamal Lewis seems to be picking up
steam and the passing game remains solid behind Derek Anderson.
Cincy was a 6.5-point road favorite in the first meeting and Cleveland
should be that much here, not minus three. Take the Browns.
----ERIN RYNNING----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Houston +7.5 at Indianapolis O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Houston
Well, here we are again with the Colts. It?s late in the season
and they?ve got their playoff ticket cashed and more importantly
their playoff destination planned. Last week, the Colts
clinched the second seed in the AFC, which ensures this team
the first round bye and home field advantage. The Colts and
head coach Tony Dungy are famous for their August exhibition
lackluster play when it comes to wins and losses, while
the similar mentality is often shown by Dungy in these late
season, meaningless affairs. This season this could be magnified
to some degree with injuries wreaking havoc on this team.
Exactly what?s the point of risking injury to all-world quarterback
Peyton Manning when he?s currently playing with a fifth
of his projected offensive line. No question, he?s been pressured
and taking harder hits than usual the last three weeks.
Certainly worrisome is the trend of teams running on this defense
with greater efficiency than the first half of the season.
Meanwhile, the Texans are peaking a bit too late with rock-solid
wins against Denver and Tampa Bay. The return of All-Pro wide
receiver Andre Johnson has given this offense a shot of life,
while opening up the running game. Look for the Texans to
bring their ?A? game against their division nemesis, while giving
the Colts all they can handle. Take the Texans plus the points.
----ED CASH------------------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Detroit -4.5 at Kansas City O/U 42
Recommendation: Detroit
Flashback to six weeks ago and the Lions were 6-2, making
Jon Kitna look like a prophet for predicting 10 wins before the
season started. Since then it has been a complete disaster in
the Motor City and Kitna looks like a fool. Detroit has dropped
its last six SU and has covered just once. Looking at the offensive
and defensive numbers it is hard to see much of a difference
in the good Lions and bad Lions, but a glance at the
turnover column tells us all we need to know. Detroit was +10
in its six wins, with the sixth win capping a three game streak
that saw them finish at +8 in turnover ratio. Since then, they
have been positive in just one game, the 28-27 loss to Dallas
and -9 in the other five losses. The defense is no longer forcing
turnovers, which is putting the offense in bad positions,
which is causing turnovers, making this a tough cycle to get
out of. This week?s foe comes in looking like the perfect patsy
for the Lions? turnover woes. Kansas City has given away 10
turnovers in their last three games(all losses), while forcing
just one. The Chiefs are depleted on offense because of multiple
injuries and have dropped their last seven contests, scoring
17 points or less in their last six. If there was ever a game
for the Lions to win, this should be it and with them clinging to
slim playoff hopes, I would think they would give it their best.
----FAIRWAY JAY----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Miami at New England -21.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: New England
If you read my blog last Sunday on NFL underdogs, you understand
that losing teams pick their spots at the end of the
season to put forth maximum efforts to get a victory. That was
just the case for the Dolphins last week, who overcame a 163-
72 rushing deficit to the Ravens to get their FIRST victory of
the season. Nice win, Miami. You were fortunate to get a victory
over a Ravens team that has tossed in the towel. However,
the Dolphins are still an embarrassment and about to get
back to reality this week. Teams that out-rush their opponents
by 30+ yards in the NFL have covered the spread 75% of the
time the past six seasons, including 81% this year. Miami was
lucky last week, but New England can attack the Fins on the
ground or through the air, and this week Mother Nature won?t
be holding back the Patriots like she did last week against
the Jets. New England remains a perfect 14-0, yet have lost
three of its last four games ATS. Apparently, with the Jets
close result combined with Miami?s win, the linemaker is back
to a somewhat realistic pointspread. The Patriots can cover
this number by halftime if they wish. And I wouldn?t trust Cleo
Lemon to be the guy to covert on a back door cover. For technical
support in rare occasions, know that double-digit home
favorites who won last week and are playing a division opponent
off a home win are 14-3 ATS. Lay it with the Patriots.
----TIM TRUSHEL-----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
NY Giants at Buffalo +3 O/U 34.5
Recommendation: Buffalo
The Giants up and down season hit another low last week with
a home loss to division rival Washington. The G-Men were routinely
booed off the field as the offense sputtered once again
under an erratic Eli Manning. You have to question the offensive
game plan in a windy, wintry mix type of game in December,
a game plan that had Manning throwing 52 times despite
a healthy 5.2 yards per carry average by Brandon Jacobs. The
home boos are nothing new for this team but it may just wear
on their psyche, and perhaps that is why they play much better
on the road; the spotlight isn?t on when they are on the highway.
The Giants have won six straight on the road and covered
in five of those wins. But let?s look at the competition shall
we? Washington, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia
aren?t a bunch of world beaters to put it lightly. The
record, therefore, is nothing more than illusion and should be
properly discounted in this matchup against a Buffalo side that
is more than capable at home. The Bills may have had their
playoff dreams effectively cut short last week in a tough loss
at Cleveland but they are still a team made up of young pros
that have shown no quit this year. Trent Edwards will still be
giving max effort as he looks to cement himself as a starter for
next season as will Marshawn Lynch who is currently platooning
with Fred Jackson. And the defenders certainly have much
to prove still with seven players returning from IR next season.
Take the scrappy Bills as the home dog against a banged
up and reeling Giants team (and line) that is falsely inflated
----MARTY OTTO----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Philadelphia +3.5 at New Orleans O/U 46
Recommendation: Philadelphia
The Saints have acquitted themselves quite nicely in the last
two weeks with wins and spread covers in the pressure ?must
win situation?. But the Eagles certainly won?t roll over this
week, at least not without a fight, after playing spoiler last
week in Dallas. Donovan McNabb may indeed be auditioning for
his next employer so we can expect a worthy performance from
the veteran QB. The dink and dunk system we saw last week will
open up this week against a New Orleans secondary that is no
stranger to giving up the big play. The Saints have been torched
through the air this season giving up nearly 250 yards per
game which ranks 30th in the NFL. With New Orleans likely to
blitz often to mask their shortcomings in coverage they will be
susceptible to screen passes where the ultra-dangerous Brian
Westbrook will be lurking. Drew Brees, however, will be called
upon to repeat his recent success after throwing seven TDs with
no INTs in his last three outings. He may have trouble though
as the Eagles secondary has finally gotten healthy with Brian
Dawkins and Lito Shepperd looking fit once again. The pressure
of the situation and the pressure from Jim Johnson?s blitz packages
should weigh enough on the Saints to bog them down in a
close game. Take the Eagles plus the points on the road where
they have played their best football this season, going 5-2 ATS.
----SONNY PALERMO------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Baltimore +10 at Seattle O/U NL
Recommendation: Baltimore
The final two weeks of the regular season is time to play ?Who
is less motivated?? - and often the worst looking matchup gives
you your best edge. With just two games to go, the Seahawks?
fate is sealed and they have little to play for (their destiny ? a
first round wild card W then a trip to Green Bay where Holmgren
and Hasselback will lose to the Packers again.) Only thing worse
than betting on Holmgren when he needs a win is betting on him
when he doesn?t, and when you get him in this spot AND in the
role of a favorite so you don?t need to win SU ? all the better. I
used this last week with Carolina, and will go back to the bank
with the Ravens. Baltimore is not motivated very much at this
point of the season either. Entering the Miami game, Baltimore
had lost seven straight, and after losing to the winless Dolphins
they have officially hit rock bottom; this is good because
it means there is only one way to go ? up. On an eight-game
skid and after a humiliating loss to Miami, I like the Ravens to
put up an effort on pride alone, and feel they are a better bet
than a team that has a lack of interest in a meaningless regular
season game while waiting for the postseason to begin. Team
owner Bisciotti announced this week that Billick will be returning
(don?t ask me why, I don?t understand these things either)
which means any player who thought he could mail it in over
these last two while playing under a lame duck had better think
again. Take Baltimore and don?t be surprised if they win SU.
----DONNIE BLACK---------------------------------------------
BEST BET
NY Jets at Tennessee -9 O/U 38.5
Recommendation: Under
Only two times this season and one time a year ago have the Tennessee
Titans won a game by a double-digit margin. It is plain
to see why we are hesitant to lay points with the Titans who so
clearly perform better as an underdog, especially when asked to
lay enough so they have to win by 10 to cover. The Jets and their
much maligned defensive unit have played well since the bye week
even if the results don?t show up on paper. They forced turnovers
and created havoc in the backfield in wins against Pittsburgh and
Miami, showed grit with a fourth quarter rally against Cleveland,
and even blocked a punt to secure an ATS win against New England.
Don?t buy into the Pats ?beat you twice? theory, as teams
that faced New England the week prior that are installed as underdogs
the following week are 3-2 ATS. One of the losses was
Baltimore who, in hindsight, never had a shot against Indianapolis.
The Jets will be game against the Titans, whose pedestrian pass
attack ranks 27th in the league and whose over-reliance on the
ground game often leaves them on the short side of 20 points.
Chad Pennington is likely back at QB after Kellen Clemens went
down last week, which means the dink and dunk system is back in
play. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles was forced out last week and
Jerricho Cotchery is still battling a finger injury as well. This one
should be played close to the vest and well below the posted total.
----JARED KLEIN-------------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Tampa Bay at San Francisco +7 O/U 37
Recommendation: San Francisco
Just like we saw with Seattle vs. Carolina last week, teams that
clinch a division title and then go out on the road don?t typically
perform up to snuff. That is the situation that the Buccaneers
find themselves in this week. After crushing the Atlanta Falcons
37-3, Tampa Bay has officially clinched the NFC South and now
travels to San Francisco to face a 49ers team that has been one
of the worst offenses in the league for a majority of the season.
We expect Tampa?s motivation to be lacking considering they
have no chance of catching Dallas or Green Bay for a bye week
in the NFC and are essentially locked in their playoff spot with
their win last weekend. On the other hand, you have a 49ers
squad that got a shot in the arm last week with one of their most
complete performances of the year in the upset win over Cincinnati.
Reserve quarterback Shaun Hill, who was starting in place
of Trent Dilfer and Alex Smith, passed for 197 yards and a touchdown
and ran for another score in his first NFL start. Running
back Frank Gore and wide receiver Darrell Jackson combined for
67% of San Francisco?s offense, a feat rarely touched with Smith
and Dilfer under center. Nevertheless, the 49ers have a shot at
putting back-to-back wins together for the first time since Weeks
1 and 2. Now we don?t want to get ahead of ourselves and predict
and outright win, but the touchdown we?re getting should
be plenty against the potentially disinterested Buccaneers.
----BRENT CROW-----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Cleveland -3 at Cincinnati O/U 47
Recommendation: Cleveland
The Browns moved into a tie for the AFC North Division lead with
Pittsburgh last week with their win over the Bills. Cleveland is now
9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS on the year as they still get little respect from
bettors. They have played just one team with a winning record in
the last five weeks, yet have not been more than a field goal favorite
in those games until laying 4.5 to Buffalo last week. This week
they are just -3 at a bad Cincinnati team that lost SU as eight-point
favorites to the woeful 49ers last week. For all of their talent, the
Bengals are 5-9 SU on the year and are getting worse by the week
it seems. They have failed to score more than 19 points in the last
three weeks and have covered the number just three times in their
last 11 games. This is a pretty fierce rivalry, and that should bring
out a good effort from the Bengals this week at home, but it still
will not be enough to stop the Browns. Cleveland scored 51 points
against this defense in week two and the offense hasn?t slowed
down much since then other than in bad weather games. The rushing
attack is getting better as Jamal Lewis seems to be picking up
steam and the passing game remains solid behind Derek Anderson.
Cincy was a 6.5-point road favorite in the first meeting and Cleveland
should be that much here, not minus three. Take the Browns.
----ERIN RYNNING----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Houston +7.5 at Indianapolis O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Houston
Well, here we are again with the Colts. It?s late in the season
and they?ve got their playoff ticket cashed and more importantly
their playoff destination planned. Last week, the Colts
clinched the second seed in the AFC, which ensures this team
the first round bye and home field advantage. The Colts and
head coach Tony Dungy are famous for their August exhibition
lackluster play when it comes to wins and losses, while
the similar mentality is often shown by Dungy in these late
season, meaningless affairs. This season this could be magnified
to some degree with injuries wreaking havoc on this team.
Exactly what?s the point of risking injury to all-world quarterback
Peyton Manning when he?s currently playing with a fifth
of his projected offensive line. No question, he?s been pressured
and taking harder hits than usual the last three weeks.
Certainly worrisome is the trend of teams running on this defense
with greater efficiency than the first half of the season.
Meanwhile, the Texans are peaking a bit too late with rock-solid
wins against Denver and Tampa Bay. The return of All-Pro wide
receiver Andre Johnson has given this offense a shot of life,
while opening up the running game. Look for the Texans to
bring their ?A? game against their division nemesis, while giving
the Colts all they can handle. Take the Texans plus the points.
----ED CASH------------------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Detroit -4.5 at Kansas City O/U 42
Recommendation: Detroit
Flashback to six weeks ago and the Lions were 6-2, making
Jon Kitna look like a prophet for predicting 10 wins before the
season started. Since then it has been a complete disaster in
the Motor City and Kitna looks like a fool. Detroit has dropped
its last six SU and has covered just once. Looking at the offensive
and defensive numbers it is hard to see much of a difference
in the good Lions and bad Lions, but a glance at the
turnover column tells us all we need to know. Detroit was +10
in its six wins, with the sixth win capping a three game streak
that saw them finish at +8 in turnover ratio. Since then, they
have been positive in just one game, the 28-27 loss to Dallas
and -9 in the other five losses. The defense is no longer forcing
turnovers, which is putting the offense in bad positions,
which is causing turnovers, making this a tough cycle to get
out of. This week?s foe comes in looking like the perfect patsy
for the Lions? turnover woes. Kansas City has given away 10
turnovers in their last three games(all losses), while forcing
just one. The Chiefs are depleted on offense because of multiple
injuries and have dropped their last seven contests, scoring
17 points or less in their last six. If there was ever a game
for the Lions to win, this should be it and with them clinging to
slim playoff hopes, I would think they would give it their best.
----FAIRWAY JAY----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Miami at New England -21.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: New England
If you read my blog last Sunday on NFL underdogs, you understand
that losing teams pick their spots at the end of the
season to put forth maximum efforts to get a victory. That was
just the case for the Dolphins last week, who overcame a 163-
72 rushing deficit to the Ravens to get their FIRST victory of
the season. Nice win, Miami. You were fortunate to get a victory
over a Ravens team that has tossed in the towel. However,
the Dolphins are still an embarrassment and about to get
back to reality this week. Teams that out-rush their opponents
by 30+ yards in the NFL have covered the spread 75% of the
time the past six seasons, including 81% this year. Miami was
lucky last week, but New England can attack the Fins on the
ground or through the air, and this week Mother Nature won?t
be holding back the Patriots like she did last week against
the Jets. New England remains a perfect 14-0, yet have lost
three of its last four games ATS. Apparently, with the Jets
close result combined with Miami?s win, the linemaker is back
to a somewhat realistic pointspread. The Patriots can cover
this number by halftime if they wish. And I wouldn?t trust Cleo
Lemon to be the guy to covert on a back door cover. For technical
support in rare occasions, know that double-digit home
favorites who won last week and are playing a division opponent
off a home win are 14-3 ATS. Lay it with the Patriots.
----TIM TRUSHEL-----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
NY Giants at Buffalo +3 O/U 34.5
Recommendation: Buffalo
The Giants up and down season hit another low last week with
a home loss to division rival Washington. The G-Men were routinely
booed off the field as the offense sputtered once again
under an erratic Eli Manning. You have to question the offensive
game plan in a windy, wintry mix type of game in December,
a game plan that had Manning throwing 52 times despite
a healthy 5.2 yards per carry average by Brandon Jacobs. The
home boos are nothing new for this team but it may just wear
on their psyche, and perhaps that is why they play much better
on the road; the spotlight isn?t on when they are on the highway.
The Giants have won six straight on the road and covered
in five of those wins. But let?s look at the competition shall
we? Washington, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia
aren?t a bunch of world beaters to put it lightly. The
record, therefore, is nothing more than illusion and should be
properly discounted in this matchup against a Buffalo side that
is more than capable at home. The Bills may have had their
playoff dreams effectively cut short last week in a tough loss
at Cleveland but they are still a team made up of young pros
that have shown no quit this year. Trent Edwards will still be
giving max effort as he looks to cement himself as a starter for
next season as will Marshawn Lynch who is currently platooning
with Fred Jackson. And the defenders certainly have much
to prove still with seven players returning from IR next season.
Take the scrappy Bills as the home dog against a banged
up and reeling Giants team (and line) that is falsely inflated
----MARTY OTTO----------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Philadelphia +3.5 at New Orleans O/U 46
Recommendation: Philadelphia
The Saints have acquitted themselves quite nicely in the last
two weeks with wins and spread covers in the pressure ?must
win situation?. But the Eagles certainly won?t roll over this
week, at least not without a fight, after playing spoiler last
week in Dallas. Donovan McNabb may indeed be auditioning for
his next employer so we can expect a worthy performance from
the veteran QB. The dink and dunk system we saw last week will
open up this week against a New Orleans secondary that is no
stranger to giving up the big play. The Saints have been torched
through the air this season giving up nearly 250 yards per
game which ranks 30th in the NFL. With New Orleans likely to
blitz often to mask their shortcomings in coverage they will be
susceptible to screen passes where the ultra-dangerous Brian
Westbrook will be lurking. Drew Brees, however, will be called
upon to repeat his recent success after throwing seven TDs with
no INTs in his last three outings. He may have trouble though
as the Eagles secondary has finally gotten healthy with Brian
Dawkins and Lito Shepperd looking fit once again. The pressure
of the situation and the pressure from Jim Johnson?s blitz packages
should weigh enough on the Saints to bog them down in a
close game. Take the Eagles plus the points on the road where
they have played their best football this season, going 5-2 ATS.
----SONNY PALERMO------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Baltimore +10 at Seattle O/U NL
Recommendation: Baltimore
The final two weeks of the regular season is time to play ?Who
is less motivated?? - and often the worst looking matchup gives
you your best edge. With just two games to go, the Seahawks?
fate is sealed and they have little to play for (their destiny ? a
first round wild card W then a trip to Green Bay where Holmgren
and Hasselback will lose to the Packers again.) Only thing worse
than betting on Holmgren when he needs a win is betting on him
when he doesn?t, and when you get him in this spot AND in the
role of a favorite so you don?t need to win SU ? all the better. I
used this last week with Carolina, and will go back to the bank
with the Ravens. Baltimore is not motivated very much at this
point of the season either. Entering the Miami game, Baltimore
had lost seven straight, and after losing to the winless Dolphins
they have officially hit rock bottom; this is good because
it means there is only one way to go ? up. On an eight-game
skid and after a humiliating loss to Miami, I like the Ravens to
put up an effort on pride alone, and feel they are a better bet
than a team that has a lack of interest in a meaningless regular
season game while waiting for the postseason to begin. Team
owner Bisciotti announced this week that Billick will be returning
(don?t ask me why, I don?t understand these things either)
which means any player who thought he could mail it in over
these last two while playing under a lame duck had better think
again. Take Baltimore and don?t be surprised if they win SU.
----DONNIE BLACK---------------------------------------------
BEST BET
NY Jets at Tennessee -9 O/U 38.5
Recommendation: Under
Only two times this season and one time a year ago have the Tennessee
Titans won a game by a double-digit margin. It is plain
to see why we are hesitant to lay points with the Titans who so
clearly perform better as an underdog, especially when asked to
lay enough so they have to win by 10 to cover. The Jets and their
much maligned defensive unit have played well since the bye week
even if the results don?t show up on paper. They forced turnovers
and created havoc in the backfield in wins against Pittsburgh and
Miami, showed grit with a fourth quarter rally against Cleveland,
and even blocked a punt to secure an ATS win against New England.
Don?t buy into the Pats ?beat you twice? theory, as teams
that faced New England the week prior that are installed as underdogs
the following week are 3-2 ATS. One of the losses was
Baltimore who, in hindsight, never had a shot against Indianapolis.
The Jets will be game against the Titans, whose pedestrian pass
attack ranks 27th in the league and whose over-reliance on the
ground game often leaves them on the short side of 20 points.
Chad Pennington is likely back at QB after Kellen Clemens went
down last week, which means the dink and dunk system is back in
play. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles was forced out last week and
Jerricho Cotchery is still battling a finger injury as well. This one
should be played close to the vest and well below the posted total.
----JARED KLEIN-------------------------------------------------
BEST BET
Tampa Bay at San Francisco +7 O/U 37
Recommendation: San Francisco
Just like we saw with Seattle vs. Carolina last week, teams that
clinch a division title and then go out on the road don?t typically
perform up to snuff. That is the situation that the Buccaneers
find themselves in this week. After crushing the Atlanta Falcons
37-3, Tampa Bay has officially clinched the NFC South and now
travels to San Francisco to face a 49ers team that has been one
of the worst offenses in the league for a majority of the season.
We expect Tampa?s motivation to be lacking considering they
have no chance of catching Dallas or Green Bay for a bye week
in the NFC and are essentially locked in their playoff spot with
their win last weekend. On the other hand, you have a 49ers
squad that got a shot in the arm last week with one of their most
complete performances of the year in the upset win over Cincinnati.
Reserve quarterback Shaun Hill, who was starting in place
of Trent Dilfer and Alex Smith, passed for 197 yards and a touchdown
and ran for another score in his first NFL start. Running
back Frank Gore and wide receiver Darrell Jackson combined for
67% of San Francisco?s offense, a feat rarely touched with Smith
and Dilfer under center. Nevertheless, the 49ers have a shot at
putting back-to-back wins together for the first time since Weeks
1 and 2. Now we don?t want to get ahead of ourselves and predict
and outright win, but the touchdown we?re getting should
be plenty against the potentially disinterested Buccaneers.
SPORTS MEMO - BOWL GAME ( ** 3-0 YESTERDAY !!!)
Boise State vs. East Carolina +10.5 O/U 71 Recommendation: East Carolina
While the Boise State victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl
was nearly a season ago, the perceived value of the Broncos in the
marketplace based on that incredible result remains inflated. This
remains the case even though indications are that Boise State is
no where near as strong as a season ago. Consider that when Boise
State went to Hawaii to battle for the WAC title, the two programs
were ranked as having the two weakest schedules in all of college
football. The best team Boise State faced this season outside of
its game against Hawaii was a 4-7 Washington Huskies team. Not
coincidentally, Boise State?s two losses came in those two games.
Their strongest win on the season was against an eight-win Fresno
State team. Overall on the season Boise State feasted on weak
competition and inflated its stat line against the absolute dregs of
college football. In five games against BCS competition and bowl
teams, Boise State outscored the competition by only eight points,
posting a 178-170 cumulative score while going just 2-3 against
the spread. In its other seven games, the Broncos outscored their
opposition 335-73 for an average margin of 37.4 points and a 5-2
spread record. Because of this success against inferior competition
the decline of this team has largely gone unnoticed. East Carolina
had a non-descript 7-5 season that saw the Pirates struggle against
a very strong non-conference slate that included four BCS opponents:
Virginia Tech, West Virginia, North Carolina and NC State. In
the conference season East Carolina put together a strong showing
going 6-2 while winning six out of its last seven conference games.
In those six wins they scored an average of 44 points per game.
East Carolina used the two-headed quarterback system with quarterbacks
Patrick Pinkney and Robert Kaas. The pair proved to be a
quality tandem throwing for nearly 2,400 yards with 19 touchdowns
and just eight interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson balanced
the offense with 1,200 yards behind a stellar 5.8 yards per carry.
The Boise offensive numbers are impressive, but I discount them
significantly because of the schedule strength. Head coach Chris
Petersen is regarded as a top big game coach because of his team?s
great showing a season ago, but East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz
has proved to be a strong tactician and has had his teams ready and
prepared in both the role of the superior and inferior team. During
his tenure at East Carolina, the Pirates are 25-10 overall against
the spread and 6-1 in the role of a double-digit underdog. So while
conventional wisdom might have Boise State rated as the better of
these two teams, we are not convinced. The home field advantage
and a tremendously weak schedule have been factors more than
anything else in any Boise success this season. Those two factors are
not issues in this match-up. The overall team speed and athleticism
is equal in these programs as neither team is a pipeline to the NFL.
With so much being equal we?d expect in a neutral site game that the
more battle tested, equally talented, big underdog is the value play
Boise State vs. East Carolina +10.5 O/U 71 Recommendation: East Carolina
While the Boise State victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl
was nearly a season ago, the perceived value of the Broncos in the
marketplace based on that incredible result remains inflated. This
remains the case even though indications are that Boise State is
no where near as strong as a season ago. Consider that when Boise
State went to Hawaii to battle for the WAC title, the two programs
were ranked as having the two weakest schedules in all of college
football. The best team Boise State faced this season outside of
its game against Hawaii was a 4-7 Washington Huskies team. Not
coincidentally, Boise State?s two losses came in those two games.
Their strongest win on the season was against an eight-win Fresno
State team. Overall on the season Boise State feasted on weak
competition and inflated its stat line against the absolute dregs of
college football. In five games against BCS competition and bowl
teams, Boise State outscored the competition by only eight points,
posting a 178-170 cumulative score while going just 2-3 against
the spread. In its other seven games, the Broncos outscored their
opposition 335-73 for an average margin of 37.4 points and a 5-2
spread record. Because of this success against inferior competition
the decline of this team has largely gone unnoticed. East Carolina
had a non-descript 7-5 season that saw the Pirates struggle against
a very strong non-conference slate that included four BCS opponents:
Virginia Tech, West Virginia, North Carolina and NC State. In
the conference season East Carolina put together a strong showing
going 6-2 while winning six out of its last seven conference games.
In those six wins they scored an average of 44 points per game.
East Carolina used the two-headed quarterback system with quarterbacks
Patrick Pinkney and Robert Kaas. The pair proved to be a
quality tandem throwing for nearly 2,400 yards with 19 touchdowns
and just eight interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson balanced
the offense with 1,200 yards behind a stellar 5.8 yards per carry.
The Boise offensive numbers are impressive, but I discount them
significantly because of the schedule strength. Head coach Chris
Petersen is regarded as a top big game coach because of his team?s
great showing a season ago, but East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz
has proved to be a strong tactician and has had his teams ready and
prepared in both the role of the superior and inferior team. During
his tenure at East Carolina, the Pirates are 25-10 overall against
the spread and 6-1 in the role of a double-digit underdog. So while
conventional wisdom might have Boise State rated as the better of
these two teams, we are not convinced. The home field advantage
and a tremendously weak schedule have been factors more than
anything else in any Boise success this season. Those two factors are
not issues in this match-up. The overall team speed and athleticism
is equal in these programs as neither team is a pipeline to the NFL.
With so much being equal we?d expect in a neutral site game that the
more battle tested, equally talented, big underdog is the value play
THE MAX -
Hawaii Bowl @Honolulu, HI
December 23, 2007 8:00 PM EST
East Carolina vs. Hawaii
Opening Line: BSU ?12.5, 72
Current Line: BSU, -11, 70
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Boise State is a very good team, thought not at the
level of last season?s Fiesta Bowl champion. This
team was somewhat inexperienced to start the year
and lost at Washington early. They then let Hawaii
pull away late in a 39-27 loss at this site to close the
season. No shame in either loss, and 10-2 seasons
don?t grow on trees, but they?re just not quite at the
same level they were last year. And as a result,
they?ve fallen about as far down in the bowl world
as you can, from a Fiesta Bowl to a pre-Christmas
affair that exists only to give the hometown Hawaii
team a place to bowl. And while a trip to Honolulu
would usually be a real treat, this team was here a
month ago to the very day, and while that one was
strictly business, the opportunity to enjoy
themselves in pre-bowl activities can only lead to a
lessening of focus. Tough to see them bringing a
top effort here, and if Chris Petersen is still in the
mix for the UCLA job focus may suffer.
Skip Holtz has done a fine job with an ECU program
that prospered under Steve Logan, who lost his job
due to a personality conflict with the AD, and then
fell into a giant two-year rut under John Thompson.
Holtz came in and really revived things. The Pirates
dropped 3 of their first 4 (including at Virginia Tech
and at West Virginia) but then won 6 or their last 8
to end up bowling. They can in stay in games with
their offense, but like most teams in their
conference, the defense leaves something to be
desired. ECU was 3-3 against teams in bowls but
were outgained by 5 of those teams, with the
average yardage in those games a ?111 deficit.
ECU has offensive weapons, but defensive flaws.
One possible way to judge these teams is their
mutual opponent, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
On September 15th, host USM beat ECU 28-21 on
yardage of 383-300. Two weeks later that same
Southern Miss team went to Boise and got blasted
on the Smurf Turf, with a final score of 38-16, with
the Broncos winning yardage 506-318. Now let?s
consider the home field (and cross-country travel to
Boise) in those games, as well as the fact that
Southern Miss would be more likely to bring their
?A? game for a conference affair. But there?s reason
to believe that this was a good year among the
upper crust of the WAC and a down year across the
board in CUSA. But as we outlined above, there?s
reason to expect that the Pirates will come in here
with the superior motivation while Boise is just going
through the motions. Often that?s what these bowls
are all about. We?ll look for enthusiastic ECU to get
the cover in a tightly played game in a very empty
Aloha Stadium. Boise by 4.
Hawaii Bowl @Honolulu, HI
December 23, 2007 8:00 PM EST
East Carolina vs. Hawaii
Opening Line: BSU ?12.5, 72
Current Line: BSU, -11, 70
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Boise State is a very good team, thought not at the
level of last season?s Fiesta Bowl champion. This
team was somewhat inexperienced to start the year
and lost at Washington early. They then let Hawaii
pull away late in a 39-27 loss at this site to close the
season. No shame in either loss, and 10-2 seasons
don?t grow on trees, but they?re just not quite at the
same level they were last year. And as a result,
they?ve fallen about as far down in the bowl world
as you can, from a Fiesta Bowl to a pre-Christmas
affair that exists only to give the hometown Hawaii
team a place to bowl. And while a trip to Honolulu
would usually be a real treat, this team was here a
month ago to the very day, and while that one was
strictly business, the opportunity to enjoy
themselves in pre-bowl activities can only lead to a
lessening of focus. Tough to see them bringing a
top effort here, and if Chris Petersen is still in the
mix for the UCLA job focus may suffer.
Skip Holtz has done a fine job with an ECU program
that prospered under Steve Logan, who lost his job
due to a personality conflict with the AD, and then
fell into a giant two-year rut under John Thompson.
Holtz came in and really revived things. The Pirates
dropped 3 of their first 4 (including at Virginia Tech
and at West Virginia) but then won 6 or their last 8
to end up bowling. They can in stay in games with
their offense, but like most teams in their
conference, the defense leaves something to be
desired. ECU was 3-3 against teams in bowls but
were outgained by 5 of those teams, with the
average yardage in those games a ?111 deficit.
ECU has offensive weapons, but defensive flaws.
One possible way to judge these teams is their
mutual opponent, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
On September 15th, host USM beat ECU 28-21 on
yardage of 383-300. Two weeks later that same
Southern Miss team went to Boise and got blasted
on the Smurf Turf, with a final score of 38-16, with
the Broncos winning yardage 506-318. Now let?s
consider the home field (and cross-country travel to
Boise) in those games, as well as the fact that
Southern Miss would be more likely to bring their
?A? game for a conference affair. But there?s reason
to believe that this was a good year among the
upper crust of the WAC and a down year across the
board in CUSA. But as we outlined above, there?s
reason to expect that the Pirates will come in here
with the superior motivation while Boise is just going
through the motions. Often that?s what these bowls
are all about. We?ll look for enthusiastic ECU to get
the cover in a tightly played game in a very empty
Aloha Stadium. Boise by 4.
JOHN CAMBELL FROM COVERS: 1-4 SO FAR
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Boise State (-10 ?, 71)
Hope you liked your recent trip to Hawaii, Boise State. Now turn around and go back. I really like how tough East Carolina plays, but that is one long trip and the Pirates are probably going to want to enjoy it when they get there.
Pick: Boise State -10 ?
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Boise State (-10 ?, 71)
Hope you liked your recent trip to Hawaii, Boise State. Now turn around and go back. I really like how tough East Carolina plays, but that is one long trip and the Pirates are probably going to want to enjoy it when they get there.
Pick: Boise State -10 ?
WILD BILL
BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR:
Over 70 1/2 East Carolina-Boise St (10 units) ECU on the road can't stop anyone and Boise knows this field well and also very potent offense. Boise 49 ECU
BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR:
Over 70 1/2 East Carolina-Boise St (10 units) ECU on the road can't stop anyone and Boise knows this field well and also very potent offense. Boise 49 ECU
T. Striker's AFC Absolute Roast - 26-10 ATS Sweet Situation!
#320 INDIANAPOLIS (-) over Houston at 1 PM EST
With each team's 2007 fate already determined, look for Indianapolis to put a higher level of importance on this division contest than Houston. Back in 2005, the Colts rested a ton of starters in their last two regular season games and paid the price in the first round of the playoffs when Pittsburgh strolled into Indy and pulled off the upset. Colts head Coach Tony Dungy won't let his team do that again!
This is actually a great spot to fade Houston too. Since 1983, road teams are a soft 52-72 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back straight up underdog wins. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win, this situation dips to a dismal 21-40-1 ATS. With those two parameters applied and our visitor off a non-division game, this system crashes to a shocking 10-26 ATS. The Texans apply to all thee parameters of this angle.
On foreign soil coming off a straight up victory, Houston has struggled anyway notching a soft 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS mark including a nasty 0-7 SU and ATS in this set provided the Texans were priced as a pup of +1' or more last. Meanwhile, QB Peyton Manning and the Horseshoes have been at their best coming off a momentum building win of seven points or more posting a solid 34-20 ATS record in their next game.
Indy has posted a perfect 5-0 SU mark at home against Houston and has won those AFC South battles by an average of 18.6 points per game. The first playoff game for the Colts is still four weeks away. The Horseshoes can't take their foot off the gas now. Take Indianapolis! Thank you and best of luck, T. S.
#320 INDIANAPOLIS (-) over Houston at 1 PM EST
With each team's 2007 fate already determined, look for Indianapolis to put a higher level of importance on this division contest than Houston. Back in 2005, the Colts rested a ton of starters in their last two regular season games and paid the price in the first round of the playoffs when Pittsburgh strolled into Indy and pulled off the upset. Colts head Coach Tony Dungy won't let his team do that again!
This is actually a great spot to fade Houston too. Since 1983, road teams are a soft 52-72 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back straight up underdog wins. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win, this situation dips to a dismal 21-40-1 ATS. With those two parameters applied and our visitor off a non-division game, this system crashes to a shocking 10-26 ATS. The Texans apply to all thee parameters of this angle.
On foreign soil coming off a straight up victory, Houston has struggled anyway notching a soft 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS mark including a nasty 0-7 SU and ATS in this set provided the Texans were priced as a pup of +1' or more last. Meanwhile, QB Peyton Manning and the Horseshoes have been at their best coming off a momentum building win of seven points or more posting a solid 34-20 ATS record in their next game.
Indy has posted a perfect 5-0 SU mark at home against Houston and has won those AFC South battles by an average of 18.6 points per game. The first playoff game for the Colts is still four weeks away. The Horseshoes can't take their foot off the gas now. Take Indianapolis! Thank you and best of luck, T. S.
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