Big AL
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Philly. Last week, the Eagles upset their division rival, Dallas, 10-6 as a double-digit underdog. But teams rarely follow through with another victory off such an upset win. Indeed, since 1992, NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .300 are a dismal 0-18 ATS off a win as a double-digit road dog, if they're matched up against a foe with a win percentage less than .600. These two teams met twice last season, and New Orleans won both, once in the regular season, and once in the playoffs. If the Saints are to make the Playoffs again this year, they'll need to win this game. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors plus the points over Cleveland. Last night, Don Nelson's crew was upset by New Jersey, while Cleveland comes into tonight's contest off an upset win over the Lakers. Cleveland has won three straight over the Warriors, including a 108-104 win seven weeks ago, and the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the rested Cavs in this spot. But consider that, since 1990, revenging road underdogs of +8 or less points off an upset loss are a super 31-11 ATS vs. non-conference foes off an upset win. Look for Baron Davis & Co. to roll over the Cavs this evening. Take the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Basketball TV Winner tonight, as we're 33-10 on our last 43 top plays in College Hoops.
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates plus the points over Boise State. Last year, the Broncos were the feel-good story of the Bowl season, after using a hook-and-trailer play in regulation, and a statue of liberty play in overtime, to defeat the favored Oklahoma Sooners. That win capped a perfect 13-0 season for the Broncos. But now, Boise's role is reversed, and it finds itself installed as a double-digit favorite over the East Carolina Pirates. It's always dangerous to lay double-digits in a bowl game, and especially if our team may lack motivation. We've already seen one double-digit underdog (So Miss) cover, and Navy (+8.5) also got the cash. Let's take the points here with East Carolina as Boise checks in off a loss to Hawaii, and .600 (or better) favorites of -9 (or more) points are 0 for 13 in Bowl games since 1987, if our big favorite lost its last regular season game, and is now on the road vs. a .700 (or worse) opponent. Also, teams that were undefeated the previous year are an awful 0-7 ATS the following Bowl season when priced from -7 to -14 points. Boise State will play this game without its top receiver, Jeremy Childs (82 receptions for 1045 yds and 9 TDs), who violated team rules and that will hurt the Bronco offense. Instead, Boise will rely on freshmen Titus Young and Austin Pettis. East Carolina isn't as well known, nationally, as Boise, but it does have the nation's leader in all-purpose yards. Running Back Chris Johnson averaged a whopping 212.7 yards per game, and was third in the country in scoring (11 ppg). He finished with 2452 all-purpose yards. Let's take Skip Holtz' Pirates plus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers, who will be playing their final home game of the season today. And, since 1980, NFL teams playing their final home game are a super 18-3 ATS in Week 15, if they won outright as an underdog the previous week. Last week, SF upset Cincy 20-13 as 9-point dogs, and I look for the momentum established by that victory to carry forward today. The 49ers were awfully impressive last week against the Bengals, as they gave up just 61 rushing yards, and they also received a spark from first-time starter, QB Shaun Hill, who accounted for two TDs. Take the 49ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates plus the points over Boise State. Last year, the Broncos were the feel-good story of the Bowl season, after using a hook-and-trailer play in regulation, and a statue of liberty play in overtime, to defeat the favored Oklahoma Sooners. That win capped a perfect 13-0 season for the Broncos. But now, Boise's role is reversed, and it finds itself installed as a double-digit favorite over the East Carolina Pirates. It's always dangerous to lay double-digits in a bowl game, and especially if our team may lack motivation. We've already seen one double-digit underdog (So Miss) cover, and Navy (+8.5) also got the cash. Let's take the points here with East Carolina as Boise checks in off a loss to Hawaii, and .600 (or better) favorites of -9 (or more) points are 0 for 13 in Bowl games since 1987, if our big favorite lost its last regular season game, and is now on the road vs. a .700 (or worse) opponent. Also, teams that were undefeated the previous year are an awful 0-7 ATS the following Bowl season when priced from -7 to -14 points. Boise State will play this game without its top receiver, Jeremy Childs (82 receptions for 1045 yds and 9 TDs), who violated team rules and that will hurt the Bronco offense. Instead, Boise will rely on freshmen Titus Young and Austin Pettis. East Carolina isn't as well known, nationally, as Boise, but it does have the nation's leader in all-purpose yards. Running Back Chris Johnson averaged a whopping 212.7 yards per game, and was third in the country in scoring (11 ppg). He finished with 2452 all-purpose yards. Let's take Skip Holtz' Pirates plus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 5:30 pm, on Fox Sports Net, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons over ACC rival Virginia Tech, as the Deacs fall into 35-11 and 86-46 systems of mine that play on certain revenging college basketball teams (Wake Forest has dropped three straight to the Hokies). Although unbeaten at home, Virginia Tech has played awful this season away from Blacksburg, as the Hokies have lost games at Penn State and Old Dominion (both mediocre teams), and have also dropped neutral site games to Butler and Gonzaga. Wake Forest has not lost this year in Winston-Salem, and has won 10 straight at home dating back to last year. And the Deacs are 26-13 ATS since 1990 at home when playing with revenge vs. a foe off a win. Take Wake Forest. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
