Dr. Bob NFL
3 Star Selection
*** CINCINNATI 27 Cleveland (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Dec-07
Cincinnati was in a horrible spot last week and lost at San Francisco despite out-gaining the Niners 6.4 yards per play to 5.4 yppl. The Bengals are out of the playoffs but they?d love to hurt the Browns? playoff chances and are eager to atone for being embarrassed on national TV last Saturday night. Cincinnati is in a great situation this week, as the Bengals apply to a 36-9-1 ATS subset of a 184-106-6 ATS bounce-back situation while also applying to a 104-38-6 ATS situation that plays on dogs the week after losing straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points. Cleveland , meanwhile, applies to a negative 14-40-3 ATS last road game angle and a 74-158-4 ATS road favorite situation. Cincinnati is also more than capable of winning this game, as the Bengals are very similar to the Browns from the line of scrimmage. Cincinnati rates at 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while Cleveland is 0.6 yppl better than average on offense with Derek Anderson behind center (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Cleveland ?s defense has allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team, but the Browns are only 0.3 yppl worse than average since LB Willie McGinest became healthy enough to play starting in week 4. Cincinnati ?s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average for the season, but the Bengals have been much better the last 6 games since inserting LB Rashad Jeanty into the starting lineup and moving Robert Geathers to defensive end. In fact, the Bengals have allowed just 5.0 yppl and 17 points per game in 6 games since making that change ? although against teams that would average only 4.9 yppl and 19 points per game. Jeanty has really helped the run defense (Cincy has allowed just 3.5 ypr in his 6 starts) and the pass defense is improved too. Overall, these teams are about even from the line of scrimmage and Cleveland ?s sizeable edge in special teams is offset by Cincinnati home field advantage. My math actually favors the Bengals by 1 ? points in this game and I?ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 (at -125 odds or less) and for 2-Stars down to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
** SAN FRANCISCO 20 Tampa Bay (-6.0) 17
01:05 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07
San Francisco was a decent quarterback away from being a decent team this year and they found that quarterback in 6 year veteran backup Shaun Hill, who has completed 43 of 55 passes with zero interceptions in nearly 2 games of action. Hill is throwing mostly underneath passes, but that ball-control passing game, combined with a renewed rushing attack makes the Niners a competitive team. San Francisco is still a below average offensive team with Hill at quarterback, but Hill?s rating of 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) is much, much better than the Niners? -1.2 yppp rating for the season. Tampa Bay is good defensively, but the Niners should muster enough offense to keep this game competitive and the team is excited about football again with Hill at quarterback. Tampa Bay ?s offense is good, but not great, and the Niners are solid defensively, so a pumped up San Francisco team is certainly capable of another upset win. The Niners apply to a solid 94-42-3 ATS home underdog situation that is based on last week?s upset win and Tampa Bay applies to a negative 10-46-2 ATS late-season road game angle and a negative 14- 40-3 ATS last road game angle. Those two angles have applied to the same team 13 times and the record is just 1-12 ATS for the road team. Tampa Bay is coming off an easy win last week, but Bucs have a tendency to letdown on the road after a win, especially when facing a non-division foe. Tampa Bay is 0-15 ATS in their last 15 regular season non- division road games following a victory, including losses this year at Indy, Detroit , and Houston . My math model favors the Buccaneers by only 3 ? points with Hill at quarterback for the 49ers and I?ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.0) 29 Houston 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Dec-07
The Colts are locked into the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, but coach Tony Dungy insists that he?ll play his starters as normal. Banged up defensive starters DE Robert Mathis, DT Raheem Brock, and S Antoine Bethea are all likely to miss this game, but those defensive absences didn?t affect the Colts last week while allowing just 253 yards at 3.7 yards per play to the Raiders. My math model favors Indy by 8 ? points in this game and the Colts apply to a 51-11-2 ATS situation while Houston applies to a negative 14-43-2 ATS road letdown situation and a negative 48-94-4 ATS road letdown situation. I would normally make the Colts a Best Bet given the strong situation and the fair line, but I?m just not sure how motivated the Colts will be even though Dungy insists he?ll play his starters. I?ll resist making the Colts a Best Bet, but I?ll consider Indianapolis a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
3 Star Selection
*** CINCINNATI 27 Cleveland (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Dec-07
Cincinnati was in a horrible spot last week and lost at San Francisco despite out-gaining the Niners 6.4 yards per play to 5.4 yppl. The Bengals are out of the playoffs but they?d love to hurt the Browns? playoff chances and are eager to atone for being embarrassed on national TV last Saturday night. Cincinnati is in a great situation this week, as the Bengals apply to a 36-9-1 ATS subset of a 184-106-6 ATS bounce-back situation while also applying to a 104-38-6 ATS situation that plays on dogs the week after losing straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points. Cleveland , meanwhile, applies to a negative 14-40-3 ATS last road game angle and a 74-158-4 ATS road favorite situation. Cincinnati is also more than capable of winning this game, as the Bengals are very similar to the Browns from the line of scrimmage. Cincinnati rates at 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while Cleveland is 0.6 yppl better than average on offense with Derek Anderson behind center (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Cleveland ?s defense has allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team, but the Browns are only 0.3 yppl worse than average since LB Willie McGinest became healthy enough to play starting in week 4. Cincinnati ?s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average for the season, but the Bengals have been much better the last 6 games since inserting LB Rashad Jeanty into the starting lineup and moving Robert Geathers to defensive end. In fact, the Bengals have allowed just 5.0 yppl and 17 points per game in 6 games since making that change ? although against teams that would average only 4.9 yppl and 19 points per game. Jeanty has really helped the run defense (Cincy has allowed just 3.5 ypr in his 6 starts) and the pass defense is improved too. Overall, these teams are about even from the line of scrimmage and Cleveland ?s sizeable edge in special teams is offset by Cincinnati home field advantage. My math actually favors the Bengals by 1 ? points in this game and I?ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 (at -125 odds or less) and for 2-Stars down to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
** SAN FRANCISCO 20 Tampa Bay (-6.0) 17
01:05 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07
San Francisco was a decent quarterback away from being a decent team this year and they found that quarterback in 6 year veteran backup Shaun Hill, who has completed 43 of 55 passes with zero interceptions in nearly 2 games of action. Hill is throwing mostly underneath passes, but that ball-control passing game, combined with a renewed rushing attack makes the Niners a competitive team. San Francisco is still a below average offensive team with Hill at quarterback, but Hill?s rating of 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) is much, much better than the Niners? -1.2 yppp rating for the season. Tampa Bay is good defensively, but the Niners should muster enough offense to keep this game competitive and the team is excited about football again with Hill at quarterback. Tampa Bay ?s offense is good, but not great, and the Niners are solid defensively, so a pumped up San Francisco team is certainly capable of another upset win. The Niners apply to a solid 94-42-3 ATS home underdog situation that is based on last week?s upset win and Tampa Bay applies to a negative 10-46-2 ATS late-season road game angle and a negative 14- 40-3 ATS last road game angle. Those two angles have applied to the same team 13 times and the record is just 1-12 ATS for the road team. Tampa Bay is coming off an easy win last week, but Bucs have a tendency to letdown on the road after a win, especially when facing a non-division foe. Tampa Bay is 0-15 ATS in their last 15 regular season non- division road games following a victory, including losses this year at Indy, Detroit , and Houston . My math model favors the Buccaneers by only 3 ? points with Hill at quarterback for the 49ers and I?ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.0) 29 Houston 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Dec-07
The Colts are locked into the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, but coach Tony Dungy insists that he?ll play his starters as normal. Banged up defensive starters DE Robert Mathis, DT Raheem Brock, and S Antoine Bethea are all likely to miss this game, but those defensive absences didn?t affect the Colts last week while allowing just 253 yards at 3.7 yards per play to the Raiders. My math model favors Indy by 8 ? points in this game and the Colts apply to a 51-11-2 ATS situation while Houston applies to a negative 14-43-2 ATS road letdown situation and a negative 48-94-4 ATS road letdown situation. I would normally make the Colts a Best Bet given the strong situation and the fair line, but I?m just not sure how motivated the Colts will be even though Dungy insists he?ll play his starters. I?ll resist making the Colts a Best Bet, but I?ll consider Indianapolis a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
