SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Pitt (19-6, 12-8 ATS) at (21) Notre Dame (19-5, 9-12 ATS)
The Panthers, coming off a blowout road loss, remain on the highway with a trip to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in a Big East battle.
Pittsburgh fell at Marquette 72-54 Friday night as a five-point underdog, dropping to 1-3 ATS in its last four starts (2-2 SU) and dropping out of the Top 25. The Panthers (7-5 SU and ATS in the Big East) have shot 45.9 percent from the field on the season, but against Marquette, they hit just 37.2 percent, including a 1-for-11 effort from 3-point range. Over the past five games, Pitt has shot just 26.5 percent from long distance, eight percentage points below its season average.
Notre Dame bounced back from an 84-78 loss at UConn and fended off Rutgers 71-68 Sunday, but failed to cash for the third straight game (2-1 SU). Unlike Pitt, the Fighting Irish (9-3, 5-7 ATS in the Big East) have been draining their long-range shots, hitting a solid 40 percent from 3-point land over their past five games (4-1 SU). That?s just a tick below their 40.5 percent season average, which ranks 10th in the nation.
These two teams haven?t met in more than two years, with Pitt topping Notre Dame in a 100-97 overtime shootout as a nine-point home favorite in January 2006. Pittsburgh is on a 5-0 run in this series, but the Irish are 3-2 ATS in that span, and the road team has cashed in all five of those contests.
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when coming off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a pointspread setback. But they are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 Thursday starts and 0-2 SU and ATS in their last two Big East roadies.
The Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last seven on Thursday but are on negative ATS slides of 1-5 overall (all in Big East play), 2-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-6 coming off a SU win.
The under is on a 16-5 spree on the highway for Pittsburgh, which carries additional under streaks of 4-1 in Big East play and 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. For Notre Dame, the under is 9-4-1 in its last 14 Thursday contests, but the over is on streaks of 9-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 7-0 coming off a SU win and 13-3 in Big East play. Finally, the over is 4-1 the last five clashes in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arizona State (16-8, 11-9 ATS) at (17) Washington State (20-5, 13-11 ATS)
The Sun Devils, who had their two-game SU and ATS winning surge halted in their most recent game, travel to the Pacific Northwest for a Pac-10 matchup against Washington State, which has won three in a row.
Arizona State lost to California 76-73 Saturday laying five points at home. The Sun Devils (6-6, 7-5 ATS in the Pac-10) had more field goals (25-22) than the Golden Bears, including 16 3-pointers, compared with just four for Cal, but they were outscored by 21 points at the foul line, as the Golden Bears went 28 of 33 from the charity stripe, while ASU was 7-for-14.
Washington State dropped Oregon 62-53 Saturday as a one-point road pup, covering for the third straight game following a six-game ATS slide. The Cougars (8-5, 6-7 ATS in the Pac-10) have shot 49 percent during their three-game run, while their third-ranked scoring defense has held all three opponents in the 50s while allowing a combined 41.1 percent shooting percentage.
Washington State has won the last three in this series, but Arizona State has cashed in two of those three contests, including last month?s 56-55 loss in Tempe as a 2?-point home ?dog. Last year in Pullman, though, the Cougars rolled 75-55 giving 12? points. The home team is on a 5-0 ATS tear in this rivalry.
The Sun Devils are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday starts. However, they are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four Pac-10 road starts.
The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home against teams with a road winning percentage below .400, but they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight against teams with a winning overall record and 1-4 ATS in their last five at home.
For ASU, the under is on tears of 13-4 on the highway, 17-5 after a SU loss, 20-8 in Pac-10 action and 19-9 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Also, the last two series meetings have stayed low. However, for Washington State, the over is on streaks of 4-0 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 5-1 in conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON STATE
Oregon (15-10, 11-10-2 ATS) at USC (15-9, 13-9 ATS
Two teams needing wins to get their NCAA Tournament hopes back on track meet up when the Ducks travel to Los Angeles for a Pac-10 clash against Southern California.
Oregon lost to Washington State 62-53 Saturday as a one-point home chalk, halting a two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Ducks (6-7, 6-6-1 ATS in the Pac-10) misfired on 17 of 21 attempts from 3-point range (23.5 percent), while allowing the Cougars to hit 9 of 20 from beyond the arc (45 percent).
Southern Cal lost to archrival UCLA 56-46 Sunday as a 6?-point home underdog, its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Trojans (6-6, 7-5 ATS Pac-10) hit 20 of 43 from the floor (46.5 percent), compared with just 21 of 62 for the Bruins (33.9 percent), and both teams made just two 3-pointers. But UCLA was 12 of 21 from the line, while USC was awarded just six free throws, making four. Also, Trojans star O.J. Mayo was limited to a career-low four points.
USC is 3-1 SU and ATS the last four clashes in this series, including a 95-86 overtime win last month as a 3?-point underdog in Eugene. These teams met three times last season, with Oregon losing 71-68 on the road as a 2?-point pup, but the Ducks pounded USC in the Pac-10 tournament 81-57 as a one-point ?dog. The underdog is on a 9-1 ATS spree in this series, and the road team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 battles.
The Ducks are mired in ATS slumps of 5-11 on Thursdays, 2-5 against teams with a winning record and 1-4 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. On the positive side, they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 coming off a non-cover and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight after a SU defeat.
The Trojans are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 following a double-digit home loss, 8-1 at home against teams with a losing road record, 15-3 after a SU loss, 8-3 after a pointspread setback and 5-2 against teams with a winning overall record.
The over is 4-0 the last four meetings in this series and 5-1 in the last six battles at USC. Also, the over is on runs of 4-0 for Oregon against teams with a winning record, 5-2 for Oregon following a SU loss, 17-6 for USC in Pac-10 play and 6-0 for USC against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, the under is 9-3 in the Trojans? last 12 home starts (6-3 this year), 8-3 in Oregon?s last 11 overall (all in Pac-10 play) and 40-18 in Oregon?s last 58 games on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN CAL
NBA
Miami (9-43, 18-33-1 ATS) at Houston (33-20, 28-24-1 ATS)
After a weeklong layoff, the Heat will try once again to end their nine-game losing skid when they travel to Houston to battle the scorching-hot Rockets.
Miami has been idle since last Thursday?s 99-92 loss at Chicago as a 2?-point road favorite. Not only have the Heat dropped nine in a row (2-6-1 ATS), but they?ve lost 24 of their last 25 overall (5-19-1 ATS) and 13 in a row on the road (2-10-1 ATS).
Houston entered the All-Star break on an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), then picked up where it left off on Tuesday night in Cleveland, topping the Cavaliers 93-85 as a one-point road favorite. The Rockets are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games and 19-9 ATS in their last 28.
Ironically, one of Miami?s nine wins this season came against the Rockets back on Nov. 23 in South Beach, a 98-91 upset victory as a 3?-point home underdog. The host is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings (6-3 ATS), while the underdog has cashed in 10 of the last 14 battles.
The Heat are on ATS slides of 18-43-2 overall, 2-5-1 against the Western Conference, 5-15-1 as an underdog, 1-5-1 as a road underdog, 1-6 on Thursdays and 0-8 when playing on three or more days? rest. The one positive: Miami is 6-1-1 ATS this year as a double-digit underdog.
The Rockets ? who have held seven straight opponents to less than 90 points, giving up an average of 84.3 points per game during this stretch ? have won five straight home games (4-1 ATS).
Despite the loss in Miami in November, Houston is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games against Southeast Division foes. The Rockets are on further ATS streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 when playing on one day of rest and 20-8-3 on Thursday. On the downside, they?re 1-5 ATS in their last six as a favorite of 11 points or more.
The Rockets have stayed under the total in six of their last seven games, including the last three in a row overall and three of four at home. The under is 16-9 at the Toyota Center this season, 6-2 in Houston?s last eight Thursday affairs, 17-7 in Miami?s last 24 on Thursday and 3-1 in Miami?s last four overall. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
