Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (30-12 CBB run the L15 days and 31-16 w/BKB Insiders since Jan 1)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Rhode Island at 7:00 ET. Travis Ford had a good second season at U Mass, leading the Minutemen to a 13-3 finish in the A-10 (tied for first with Xavier) and an overall 24-9 mark (team had won just 13 games in his first season). However, gone from LY's team are big men Freeman (14.7-8.3) and Lasme (13.5-9.5), as well as 6-5 guard Life (11.5). This year's team is led by 6-7 senior swingman Forbes (20.2-7.6-3.2) and sophomore guard Harris, who has upped his scoring average from 4.5 PPG as a freshman to 18.0 PPG this year. Lowe (12.3-3.2-5.7) has played well at the point while up front, two seniors, the 6-8 Brower (12.4-6.6) and the 6-9 Milligan (8.2-4.8), have tried their best to replace Freeman and Lasme (it hasn't worked). Ford's style is to "get out and run" and the Minutemen are averaging 82.2 PPG. However, the more IMPORTANT number for our purposes is the team's ATS mark. U Mass is 16-9 overall (just 5-6 in the A-10) but since Dec 15, the Minutemen are just 4-10 ATS in lined games. Rhode Island, in head coach Jim Baron's sixth year, opened 14-1 and moved into the top-25. However, in the team's showdown game at Dayton (also ranked at the time) on Jan 9, the Rams were beaten 92-83, which has started them on a recent 6-5 SU run. The Rams are just 6-5 in the A-10 this year but have HUGE home games here with U Mass and against St Joe's on Sunday. If the Rams were to win both games, they have winnable road games at GW and LaSalle plus another winnable home game vs Charlotte to finish the regular season. That means a 25-win season (or better with the A-10 tourney remaining) is a real possibility. The guard combo of Baron (14.8) and PG Bitee (11.6-5.1 APG) is superb, while the team's two 6-8 fowards, Daniels (18.6-6.8) and Seawright (9.1-8.7), are both excellent. Throw in swingman Cothran (8.1), the 6-6 Ulmer (7.8-5.1) and the 6-6 Mbang (6.8-4.3) and one can see why this team was ranked earlier TY. Rhode Island lost a 78-75 decision at U Mass back on Feb 7, a game in which the two guards made just 8-of 19 FGs, Daniels had 19-14 but made just 7-of-21 shots and Seawright had a dreadful 2-of-11 night from the floor. Here at home, where the Rams were a perfect 11-0 until losing to Xavier last Monday (81-77), I expect Rhode Island to control the flow of the game and of course, shoot must better than it did up in Amherst. Las Vegas Insider on Rhode Island.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (now 21-7 on the CBB season!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Denver at 9:30 ET. Regular followers should have anticipated this play on Denver, as I've ridden the Pioneers here at home for the better part of the last two months. Once again linemakers continue to undervalue Denver on its homecourt, as the 'overnight' line was Denver minus-1 1/2-points. It's moved slightly higher since but that won't change my play on Denver. Consider this. The Pioneers are 0-13 in true road games this year but 9-1 SU and ATS at home. Denver lost its second home game of the season to Colorado (Nov 27) but has followed that with eight straight wins, including posting a 7-0 SU and ATS at home in the SBC. Conference opponents are forced to make the long trip to Denver PLUS play at altitude and it has CLEARLY had an effect, although linemakers have just as CLEARLY ignored the results. Here's a recap of Denver's SBC home games. The Pioneers beat Denver (plus-6 1/2) 63-59, beat La-Monroe (minus-2) 66-50, beat Ark-LR (minus-1) 54-40, beat Ark St (minus-3) 59-52, beat Fla-Int'l (minus-1 1/2) 64-50, beat Troy (minus-4 1/2) 80-66 and beat La-Lafayette (minus-1 1/2) 63-44. Joe Scott has done a terrific job with this team as the Pioneers lost their best player from LY in the 6-6 Walker (14.9-4.8) and then their leading returning scorer, Bullock (11.0), left this year's team after just six games. This year's best player, the 6-6 Kummer (11.4-4.6), went down with a season-ending ankle injury NINE games ago, yet the Pioneers have maintained their ability to win at home without him. Rob Lewis (8.3-4.2), a 6-7 freshman, has really stepped up his play the last six games, averaging 15.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG, greatly diminishing Kummer's loss. Tanner, a solid 6-8 center, is averaging 10.3-3.5-2.8 and the 6-5 Rohnert (8.7-4.0) helps complete a still-effective frontcourt. Guards Kyle Lewis (8.8) and Jackson (8.8) have been solid with freshman McNally (3.1) getting some of the minutes Bullock would have taken. MTSU beat Denver back in Murfreesboro 68-50 on Jan 5 (so who doesn't beat Denver when the Pioneers are away from home?) but winning on the road, where the Blue Raiders are just 3-7 and losing by an average margin of 14 PPG, will be an entirely different story. MTSU has two decent frontcourt players in the 6-7 Yates (15.8-4.7) and 6-10 center Hudson (9.0-5.5) but as I've already mentioned, Denver's frontcourt is playing extremely well (at home, that is), even without Kummer. MTSU's backcourt of Green (12.0-4.5), Kanaskie (10.2-4.0-3.4) and Johnson (7.7-3.9-3.3) could be considered a stronger group than Denver's but in the end, the play here is on the home team AGAIN and AGAIN until either the Pioneers stop winning at home or the linemakers some MAJOR adjustments. Oddsmaker's Error on Denver.
Good Luck....Larry
