Drew Gordon (0-7 on his last 7 top plays)
1. 400,000♦ Wright State
2. 100,000♦ Mavericks
3. 50,000♦ Boise State
1. Wright State- For those of us who've followed this series, the number on this game is ridiculous. Wright State is 10-1 ATS over their last 11 meetings with Butler, including three straight outright victories! Needless to say, expecting a Bulldogs blowout here flies in the face of everything we know about this series.
This series has two defining traits: First, we can expect this to be a relatively low scoring affair, as these two teams have gotten to know each other well and the offenses have struggled to adapt. Second, we can expect Butler to come into this game overvalued, which has been the case time and again. True, they lost a tough game to Drake at home in their last one, which should have them motivated tonight. But on the flip side, the Raiders have been playing great ball, winning 11 straight, before losing a close defensive battle at Illinois State in their last one.
Also, its hard to ignore the Raiders numbers over their last 5 games. While their offense has been below average, their defense has been outstanding, allowing just 52 ppg on 39% shooting over that span! Butler's defense is solid at home, but its not better than what the Raiders saw at Illinois State on Sunday. All signs once again point to a low-scoring defensive battle in this one.
For a more accurate understanding, let's examine their most recent meeting, a 43-42 Wright State outright win at home as an 8'-point underdog. The Raiders offense, only got off 38 shots in the game compared to Butler's 50, but managed to shoot 47%, while holding the Bulldogs to just 32%. Butler's perimeter based attack struggled against a Wright State team that had the experience and the personnel to defend it.
Bottom line, expect a close, hard-fought, defensive battle in this contest, with the Raiders easily keeping this game within the number. Butler will shoot better at home, most likely enabling them to win this game, but they'll still have trouble against a Wright State team that seemingly always gets up for this match up. Raiders have been solid bet on the road (8-3-1 ATS), and that trend continues tonight at Butler!
Take Wright State plus the points over Butler as your top-rated play of the day. Last 7 plays of the day record, 0-7.
2. Mavericks- Love this match up for the Mavs, as Dallas seems to be adapting well to the addition of Jason Kidd to their lineup, winning 3 straight, albeit against easy competition. Spurs have been playing well, winning 6 straight, and while I believe they'll win this game at home, I disagree with the margin, seeing no more than about a basket difference between these two Western Conference powers.
San Antonio has relied on their defense to lockdown foes over their last 5 games, allowing just 86 ppg on 41% shooting... Excellent numbers by any measure. But if any offense is methodical enough to play the Spurs halfcourt game, its the Mavs, especially with one of the smartest point guard in the league leading their offense. Its a true measuring stick, one I believe Kidd and Mavs are using to gauge themselves against tonight.
While the Spurs have been solid at home, the Mavs have owned the series of late, covering 4 of the last 5, including 3 outright victories. The last time these two teams played, the Spurs won without Tim Duncan, as Devin Harris got completely outclassed by Parker, scoring just 4 points in 26 minutes. Look for a much better effort from the point guard position tonight, as Kidd helps this Mavs offense in a variety of ways.
Finally, two more trends to consider, as the road team is 10-4 ATS over the last 14 meetings in this series. Not only that, but the underdog is an impressive 14-3 ATS over their last 17 meetings. In the end, look for this game to be razor close, as these two teams always go all out against each other. Dallas will be looking to prove they made the right move with Kidd, and I expect them to play accordingly.
Take the Mavericks plus the points over Spurs in this NBA match up.
3. Boise State- With just a 1/2 game lead in the WAC and coming off an ugly outright home loss to Siena, looking for the Broncos to bounce back strong in this conference road game tonight at San Jose State. 2nd place New Mexico State is at Nevada tonight, a tough place to win, and the Broncos could almost cement their lead in the WAC tonight with a win here.
Spartans have been far from impressive of late, losing 4 of their last 6 SU (3-3 ATS) and looking more and more like one of the bottom-feeders in the WAC. While their defense had been respectable, they've slipped of late, allowing 74 ppg on 43% shooting over their last 5 games. As the losses have mounted their focus has clearly faded, and it'll show tonight.
San Jose State's offense what dooms them in this contest, as one thing we know for sure is Boise State can score points. Broncos are averaging 84 ppg on a ridiculous 53% shooting (43% from 3-point) away this season. They may not get that many tonight, but they sure as hell will outscore a sputtering Spartans offense, dropping in just 67 ppg on 43% shooting over their last 5 games.
Finally, match ups are also an problem, as San Jose State has some nice balance, but no one to score points when they need them, like Reggie Larry will for the Broncos. With the inside/out attack of Larry, Nelson, Tiedeman, and the return of senior G Bauscher to lineup after missing the Siena game with an ankle injury, the Broncos have more than enough firepower to blow the Spartans out of their own gym in this one. Boise State gets back on track with a solid road win and cover tonight!
Take Boise State comfortably over San Jose State in this WAC match up.
