BEN COLLEGE BASKETBALL
LOUISVILLE
Game: Notre Dame vs. Louisville Game Time: 2/28/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. This is a huge game for both teams as the winner all but wraps up a top-four seed in the Big East tournament and a much-needed first-round bye. The Irish have been playing very well. However, they're 0-2 ATS their last two road games and they'll be facing an even tougher opponent here. The Cardinals come in having gone a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their last seven games. Since an embarrassing upset loss vs. Cincinnati on New Year's Day, the Cardinals have won all six of their home games. All games came against Big East opponents with the wins each coming by a minimum of eight points and by an average of 16 points. In fact, no Big East team has managed more than 58 points at Freedom Hall this year. The Cardinals have some additional motivation here as the Irish embarrassed them at Notre Dame last season. Pitino knows that Notre Dame didn't have much trouble with Syracuse's zone defense. The Cardinals' "zone" is much more active though and their full court press wears on teams as they have to work to just get the ball up the floor. Syracuse's lack of depth prevented the Orange from extending the defense to get out and challenge the Irish shooters. The Cardinals and their 10-man rotation have no such problems. Get beat, get tired or get in foul trouble and Pitino can (and will) always go with someone else. Note that the Cardinals are also capable of running with teams and have scored 80 or more points three times in their past seven games. The Irish, who are allowing more than 78 points per game over their last five are playing the first of back to back road games here. They've been in that situation twice previously this season and they went 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by a combined 25 points. While the Irish are 4-6 ATS off a conference win the Cardinals are 8-3 ATS when they were coming off a conference win. They're now 20-8 ATS in that situation the past three seasons. Look for the red hot Cardinals to improve on those stats, closing out a perfect month of February with another convincing victory. *Roast
ARIZONA STATE
Game: UCLA vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 2/28/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Arizona St. Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. We all know that UCLA is a great team. However, the Sun Devils aren't slouches, particularly here at home. They lost by only one vs. Washington State and they've beaten the likes of Arizona and Oregon. They also crushed highly ranked Xavier here by 22 points in non-conference play. More recently, they knocked off Stanford here on Valentine's Day. The Cardinal were only laying three points in that game, as were the Cougars and Musketeers. Tonight's line is significantly higher and I feel that gives us terrific value with the revenge-minded Sun Devils. The Sun Devils were blown out at UCLA earlier. They're 4-2 SU/ATS the last six times they were attempting to avenge an earlier road loss though and they're also a healthy 14-9 ATS the last 23 times they were attempting to avenge a blowout road loss of 20 points or greater. They're allowing just 57 points here on the season, going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in lined games. The Sun Devils enter with some confidence as they crushed Washington by 14 points in their most recent game and also because they've played the Bruins tough here in recent years. They beat UCLA by 12 points here in 2004 and the last three meetings in 2005-2007 have all been decided by six points or less and by an average of less than four points. The Sun Devils were 4-1 ATS in those games and I look for them to give the Bruins all they can handle once again. *Shocker of the Month
BB NBA BASKETBALL
BUCKS
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets Game Time: 2/28/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The general public is going to see the relatively low number and be quick to back the Nets here. After all, they're playing at home and they've got the better record. Playing at home hasn't been much of an advantage for the Nets this season though as they're below 500 (14-16) here for the season, going a money-burning 10-19-1 ATS. As for having the better record, the Nets are only a few games ahead of the Bucks and those stats were largely accumulated when the Nets had Jason Kidd and the Bucks were without Michael Redd and others. Kidd is gone from NJ now though and Redd is back and playing well for Milwaukee. Indeed, he hit a game-winning 3-pointer vs. Cleveland on Tuesday, giving him 67 points the past two games and giving the Bucks their third win in four games since the Break. All three of those victories were against high quality teams (Pistons, Nuggets, Cavaliers) too. The Bucks bring both confidence and momentum into tonight's game and they're newly inspired to be back in the playoff race. As Milwaukee coach Larry Krystkowiak had to say: "This league is very much about momentum. Winning in the league is good medicine. It gives you some confidence ? We're riding a little mini-wave here and we need to try to keep it rolling." Note that the Bucks are a profitable 9-3 ATS on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. The Bucks will have some additional motivation as they'll be playing with "double-revenge," having lost a pair of close ones against the Nets earlier this season. While the Bucks have struggled to get wins on the road, they have managed a healthy 4-2 ATS mark when listed as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. Conversely, the Nets are an ugly 3-8-1 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Look for the Bucks to continue their strong second half play and for the Nets, who lost 102-92 vs. Orlando last time out, to fall to 21-37-2 ATS the last 60 times they were coming off a double-digit loss. *Best Bet
HEAT
Game: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 2/28/2008 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. The Heat finally put things together last game and recorded a convincing blowout victory over the Kings. That was just what they needed for team morale and confidence and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Miami shot a whopping 52% (39-of-75) for the game and set a franchise record by holding the Kings to a mere 10% (2-of-20) in the third quarter. As Coach Riley had to say: "I know we?ve had it in us. I don't know where it's been. But, we played extremely well. We just played a complete game for 48 minutes." Yes, the Lakers have been playing very well since picking up Gasol. They finally failed to cover last time out though and I feel tonight's line is too high once again. To put it a different way, I feel that the Lakers are currently over-valued and the Heat are currently under-valued. Note that the Heat are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of 12.5 or more points. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Lakers are 1-4 ATS when listed as home favorites of -12.5 or more points. Looking at the series history and we find that the Lakers have only beaten the Heat by more than 13 points three times in the last 20 series meetings and that hasn't happened since 2004, when they won by 15. The last three meetings here in LA have all been decided by eight points or less and by an average of only five. Look for the revenge-minded Heat to build off Tuesday's performance and keep things closer than expected once again, improving to 9-1 ATS their last 10 games against teams from the Pacific Division. *TNT Game of the Month
BURNS HOCKEY
ST LOUIS
Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues Game Time: 2/28/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Blues Reason: I'm laying the price with ST. LOUIS. The Blues should be extremely motivated for tonight's game. Not only have they lost four games in a row but they're also playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three series meetings this season. Tonight should be an excellent spot to get some payback as the Coyotes are coming off a hard fought 1-0 loss last night while the Blues had the night off. That's noteworthy as we find Phoenix at 0-4 over the past month, when playing the second of back to back games, getting outscored by a 13-7 margin. Look for an inspired effort from the Blues here, as they have their "revenge" and improve to 6-1 when coming off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. *Personal Favorite
LOUISVILLE
Game: Notre Dame vs. Louisville Game Time: 2/28/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. This is a huge game for both teams as the winner all but wraps up a top-four seed in the Big East tournament and a much-needed first-round bye. The Irish have been playing very well. However, they're 0-2 ATS their last two road games and they'll be facing an even tougher opponent here. The Cardinals come in having gone a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their last seven games. Since an embarrassing upset loss vs. Cincinnati on New Year's Day, the Cardinals have won all six of their home games. All games came against Big East opponents with the wins each coming by a minimum of eight points and by an average of 16 points. In fact, no Big East team has managed more than 58 points at Freedom Hall this year. The Cardinals have some additional motivation here as the Irish embarrassed them at Notre Dame last season. Pitino knows that Notre Dame didn't have much trouble with Syracuse's zone defense. The Cardinals' "zone" is much more active though and their full court press wears on teams as they have to work to just get the ball up the floor. Syracuse's lack of depth prevented the Orange from extending the defense to get out and challenge the Irish shooters. The Cardinals and their 10-man rotation have no such problems. Get beat, get tired or get in foul trouble and Pitino can (and will) always go with someone else. Note that the Cardinals are also capable of running with teams and have scored 80 or more points three times in their past seven games. The Irish, who are allowing more than 78 points per game over their last five are playing the first of back to back road games here. They've been in that situation twice previously this season and they went 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by a combined 25 points. While the Irish are 4-6 ATS off a conference win the Cardinals are 8-3 ATS when they were coming off a conference win. They're now 20-8 ATS in that situation the past three seasons. Look for the red hot Cardinals to improve on those stats, closing out a perfect month of February with another convincing victory. *Roast
ARIZONA STATE
Game: UCLA vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 2/28/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Arizona St. Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. We all know that UCLA is a great team. However, the Sun Devils aren't slouches, particularly here at home. They lost by only one vs. Washington State and they've beaten the likes of Arizona and Oregon. They also crushed highly ranked Xavier here by 22 points in non-conference play. More recently, they knocked off Stanford here on Valentine's Day. The Cardinal were only laying three points in that game, as were the Cougars and Musketeers. Tonight's line is significantly higher and I feel that gives us terrific value with the revenge-minded Sun Devils. The Sun Devils were blown out at UCLA earlier. They're 4-2 SU/ATS the last six times they were attempting to avenge an earlier road loss though and they're also a healthy 14-9 ATS the last 23 times they were attempting to avenge a blowout road loss of 20 points or greater. They're allowing just 57 points here on the season, going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in lined games. The Sun Devils enter with some confidence as they crushed Washington by 14 points in their most recent game and also because they've played the Bruins tough here in recent years. They beat UCLA by 12 points here in 2004 and the last three meetings in 2005-2007 have all been decided by six points or less and by an average of less than four points. The Sun Devils were 4-1 ATS in those games and I look for them to give the Bruins all they can handle once again. *Shocker of the Month
BB NBA BASKETBALL
BUCKS
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets Game Time: 2/28/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The general public is going to see the relatively low number and be quick to back the Nets here. After all, they're playing at home and they've got the better record. Playing at home hasn't been much of an advantage for the Nets this season though as they're below 500 (14-16) here for the season, going a money-burning 10-19-1 ATS. As for having the better record, the Nets are only a few games ahead of the Bucks and those stats were largely accumulated when the Nets had Jason Kidd and the Bucks were without Michael Redd and others. Kidd is gone from NJ now though and Redd is back and playing well for Milwaukee. Indeed, he hit a game-winning 3-pointer vs. Cleveland on Tuesday, giving him 67 points the past two games and giving the Bucks their third win in four games since the Break. All three of those victories were against high quality teams (Pistons, Nuggets, Cavaliers) too. The Bucks bring both confidence and momentum into tonight's game and they're newly inspired to be back in the playoff race. As Milwaukee coach Larry Krystkowiak had to say: "This league is very much about momentum. Winning in the league is good medicine. It gives you some confidence ? We're riding a little mini-wave here and we need to try to keep it rolling." Note that the Bucks are a profitable 9-3 ATS on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. The Bucks will have some additional motivation as they'll be playing with "double-revenge," having lost a pair of close ones against the Nets earlier this season. While the Bucks have struggled to get wins on the road, they have managed a healthy 4-2 ATS mark when listed as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. Conversely, the Nets are an ugly 3-8-1 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Look for the Bucks to continue their strong second half play and for the Nets, who lost 102-92 vs. Orlando last time out, to fall to 21-37-2 ATS the last 60 times they were coming off a double-digit loss. *Best Bet
HEAT
Game: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 2/28/2008 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. The Heat finally put things together last game and recorded a convincing blowout victory over the Kings. That was just what they needed for team morale and confidence and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Miami shot a whopping 52% (39-of-75) for the game and set a franchise record by holding the Kings to a mere 10% (2-of-20) in the third quarter. As Coach Riley had to say: "I know we?ve had it in us. I don't know where it's been. But, we played extremely well. We just played a complete game for 48 minutes." Yes, the Lakers have been playing very well since picking up Gasol. They finally failed to cover last time out though and I feel tonight's line is too high once again. To put it a different way, I feel that the Lakers are currently over-valued and the Heat are currently under-valued. Note that the Heat are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of 12.5 or more points. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Lakers are 1-4 ATS when listed as home favorites of -12.5 or more points. Looking at the series history and we find that the Lakers have only beaten the Heat by more than 13 points three times in the last 20 series meetings and that hasn't happened since 2004, when they won by 15. The last three meetings here in LA have all been decided by eight points or less and by an average of only five. Look for the revenge-minded Heat to build off Tuesday's performance and keep things closer than expected once again, improving to 9-1 ATS their last 10 games against teams from the Pacific Division. *TNT Game of the Month
BURNS HOCKEY
ST LOUIS
Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues Game Time: 2/28/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Blues Reason: I'm laying the price with ST. LOUIS. The Blues should be extremely motivated for tonight's game. Not only have they lost four games in a row but they're also playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three series meetings this season. Tonight should be an excellent spot to get some payback as the Coyotes are coming off a hard fought 1-0 loss last night while the Blues had the night off. That's noteworthy as we find Phoenix at 0-4 over the past month, when playing the second of back to back games, getting outscored by a 13-7 margin. Look for an inspired effort from the Blues here, as they have their "revenge" and improve to 6-1 when coming off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. *Personal Favorite
