SERVICE PLAYS FOR THUR. 2/28
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
BOB AKMENS:
Bob posted the following:
I had a couple of people call me and ask how useful are the comp plays they see posted.
Well, comps to me are plays that didn't quite make the cut.
As it happens the 2 comp hoop plays of mine that were floating around both covered but here's why I didn't use the college total, GTown under.
The number was right around 120. That's sort of an unofficial cutoff point for me as far as an under goes (as is about 160 on a possible over-play)
I've checked and I've given out under when the number was in the teens maybe 5 times this year - and won 4 of them I think - but I hesitated releasing all of those plays.
When I see a totals-line under 120, I just don't usually feel good playing the under because we're now talking scores in the 50's if it's a close game.
And you never know if numbers will move away from you. The GTown total closed at 120.5 and still went under - but it could have moved down to the teens - and that's why it was actually scratched from my list of plays.
Just like your wise forum members were just that - wise - to pass on my WV under when the line went from the opener of 142.5 in the AM down a full 5 points to 137.5. Were that the line when I gave out that play - it would not have been a play.
I'll usually build-in about a 3-point cushion into my plays for line movements - but 5 is a huge move.
And so many of those large public line movements are just not profitable; you almost have to be a contrarian and go the other way when you see that.
I have 2 MLB plays Thursday, BTW, one fav and one dog, for those who are interested. 1-0 so far with the Tigers winning today.
Time to go to bed.
Bob Akmens
Bob posted the following:
I had a couple of people call me and ask how useful are the comp plays they see posted.
Well, comps to me are plays that didn't quite make the cut.
As it happens the 2 comp hoop plays of mine that were floating around both covered but here's why I didn't use the college total, GTown under.
The number was right around 120. That's sort of an unofficial cutoff point for me as far as an under goes (as is about 160 on a possible over-play)
I've checked and I've given out under when the number was in the teens maybe 5 times this year - and won 4 of them I think - but I hesitated releasing all of those plays.
When I see a totals-line under 120, I just don't usually feel good playing the under because we're now talking scores in the 50's if it's a close game.
And you never know if numbers will move away from you. The GTown total closed at 120.5 and still went under - but it could have moved down to the teens - and that's why it was actually scratched from my list of plays.
Just like your wise forum members were just that - wise - to pass on my WV under when the line went from the opener of 142.5 in the AM down a full 5 points to 137.5. Were that the line when I gave out that play - it would not have been a play.
I'll usually build-in about a 3-point cushion into my plays for line movements - but 5 is a huge move.
And so many of those large public line movements are just not profitable; you almost have to be a contrarian and go the other way when you see that.
I have 2 MLB plays Thursday, BTW, one fav and one dog, for those who are interested. 1-0 so far with the Tigers winning today.
Time to go to bed.
Bob Akmens
Winning Points Online
NCAAB
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 28
8 pm
**PREFERRED
Valparaiso* over Detroit by 20
You're down four guards (since the season began). You've
already played your final home game. The coach has been
out for while, ill. How behind the 8-ball are you?
Detroit senior guard Jon Goode is the Horizon League's
leading scorer (19.3 ppg) but he will miss the remainder of the
season after injuring his knee injury against Wright State
last week. Bowling Green destroyed these guys without him on
Saturday, and Valpo is better.
Goode is the fourth guard that Detroit (7-20, 3-13 Horizon)
has lost this season following Brandon Bell, former
leading scorer Brandon Cotton (left the team) and, two games
ago just before Goode, starting point guard Woody Payne
(season-ending foot surgery).
VALPARAISO 66-46
NCAAB
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 28
8 pm
**PREFERRED
Valparaiso* over Detroit by 20
You're down four guards (since the season began). You've
already played your final home game. The coach has been
out for while, ill. How behind the 8-ball are you?
Detroit senior guard Jon Goode is the Horizon League's
leading scorer (19.3 ppg) but he will miss the remainder of the
season after injuring his knee injury against Wright State
last week. Bowling Green destroyed these guys without him on
Saturday, and Valpo is better.
Goode is the fourth guard that Detroit (7-20, 3-13 Horizon)
has lost this season following Brandon Bell, former
leading scorer Brandon Cotton (left the team) and, two games
ago just before Goode, starting point guard Woody Payne
(season-ending foot surgery).
VALPARAISO 66-46
Johnny Guild
NBA Selection
Thursday, February 28th, 2008 8:00 PM EST.
Dallas Mavericks (38-19) at San Antonio Spurs (38-17)
The total has gone under in six of the Spurs last seven home games and four of the last five clashes against Dallas. Look for the Spurs to play their usual tough defense and contain the Mavericks, hindering Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd. Dallas has played stronger offensively in their last 3 battles, averaging 99.5 points per game, but will face a strong San Antonio team that is allowing an average of 90.8 points per game. Take the ?under? tonight at the AT&T Center.
Under - 181.5
Louisville Cardinals - 8
UCLA Bruins - 6
Mr. A's
New Jersey Nets -3?
Los Angeles Lakers - 14
NBA Selection
Thursday, February 28th, 2008 8:00 PM EST.
Dallas Mavericks (38-19) at San Antonio Spurs (38-17)
The total has gone under in six of the Spurs last seven home games and four of the last five clashes against Dallas. Look for the Spurs to play their usual tough defense and contain the Mavericks, hindering Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd. Dallas has played stronger offensively in their last 3 battles, averaging 99.5 points per game, but will face a strong San Antonio team that is allowing an average of 90.8 points per game. Take the ?under? tonight at the AT&T Center.
Under - 181.5
Louisville Cardinals - 8
UCLA Bruins - 6
Mr. A's
New Jersey Nets -3?
Los Angeles Lakers - 14
LT Profits comps
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins u5.5 (-115)
Thu Feb 28 '08 7:05p
The Pittsburgh Penguins may have trouble getting some offensive continuity the next few games considering all the new players they traded for at the deadline, and the Boston Bruins would be tough to score on in Beantown in any event.
Boston is allowing just 2.20 goals per game at home for the season, with the Under going a lucrative 19-10 in this rink. It helps to have an All-Star goaltender like Tim Thomas in net, as he has a good 2.41 GAA with a .924 save percentage. Most importantly, he recovered from one of his worst games of the season, when he was benched during a 5-4 win at Florida, by shutting out the high-octane Ottawa Senators on Tuesday.
Now the Penguins will eventually be explosive due to the acquisition of Marian Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers, as Hossa is just one year removed from a 100-point season and he will make a formidable duo with Sidney Crosby soon. However, this is Hossa?s first game with the Pens and Crosby is not ready for game action just yet. Thus, Pittsburgh may again rely on the red-hot goaltending of Ty Conkin, who has a sensational 2.19 GAA in 27 games and who incredibly stopped 50 shots vs. the Islanders Tuesday, basically stealing the 4-2 win himself.
We look for both goaltenders to stay hot here in a relatively low scoring contest.
NHL Free Pick: Penguins, Bruins Under 5.5 (-115)
Jacksonville State +4.0 (-110)
This game between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the Eastern Illinois Panthers may feature the two worst teams in Division IA, but that does not mean we cannot profit from this stinker of a contest.
First of all, the 5-22 Panthers are getting outscored by an average of -6.8 points per game overall, which is actually worse than the 6-21 Gamecocks? average of -5.2 points. That fact alone means that Eastern Illinois is a terrible favorite vs. any opponent, and furthermore, they are just 3-8 straight up and a dismal 2-7-1 against the spread at home. This is the first time that the Panthers have been favored all season, but they have been in three Pick?em games and they lost all three times vs. Rice, Tennessee-Martin and Eastern Kentucky, with the smallest losing margin in those games being six points.
Now, Jacksonville State is 0-11 SU on the road, but they have managed to go 4-4 ATS in their lined road contests. In fact, they are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, and their last road contest was their best of the season, as they lost just 87-85 in overtime at Tennessee Tech as 13-point underdogs.
We feel that the Gamecocks get over the road hump tonight with the outright upset.
CBB Free Pick: Jacksonville State +4
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins u5.5 (-115)
Thu Feb 28 '08 7:05p
The Pittsburgh Penguins may have trouble getting some offensive continuity the next few games considering all the new players they traded for at the deadline, and the Boston Bruins would be tough to score on in Beantown in any event.
Boston is allowing just 2.20 goals per game at home for the season, with the Under going a lucrative 19-10 in this rink. It helps to have an All-Star goaltender like Tim Thomas in net, as he has a good 2.41 GAA with a .924 save percentage. Most importantly, he recovered from one of his worst games of the season, when he was benched during a 5-4 win at Florida, by shutting out the high-octane Ottawa Senators on Tuesday.
Now the Penguins will eventually be explosive due to the acquisition of Marian Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers, as Hossa is just one year removed from a 100-point season and he will make a formidable duo with Sidney Crosby soon. However, this is Hossa?s first game with the Pens and Crosby is not ready for game action just yet. Thus, Pittsburgh may again rely on the red-hot goaltending of Ty Conkin, who has a sensational 2.19 GAA in 27 games and who incredibly stopped 50 shots vs. the Islanders Tuesday, basically stealing the 4-2 win himself.
We look for both goaltenders to stay hot here in a relatively low scoring contest.
NHL Free Pick: Penguins, Bruins Under 5.5 (-115)
Jacksonville State +4.0 (-110)
This game between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the Eastern Illinois Panthers may feature the two worst teams in Division IA, but that does not mean we cannot profit from this stinker of a contest.
First of all, the 5-22 Panthers are getting outscored by an average of -6.8 points per game overall, which is actually worse than the 6-21 Gamecocks? average of -5.2 points. That fact alone means that Eastern Illinois is a terrible favorite vs. any opponent, and furthermore, they are just 3-8 straight up and a dismal 2-7-1 against the spread at home. This is the first time that the Panthers have been favored all season, but they have been in three Pick?em games and they lost all three times vs. Rice, Tennessee-Martin and Eastern Kentucky, with the smallest losing margin in those games being six points.
Now, Jacksonville State is 0-11 SU on the road, but they have managed to go 4-4 ATS in their lined road contests. In fact, they are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, and their last road contest was their best of the season, as they lost just 87-85 in overtime at Tennessee Tech as 13-point underdogs.
We feel that the Gamecocks get over the road hump tonight with the outright upset.
CBB Free Pick: Jacksonville State +4
SPORTS MONITOR
Miami Heat (10-45) at L.A. Lakers Lakers (40-17)
LA is -13.5 and the total is 209 points
TRENDS:
The Lakers are 37-19 against the pointspread this season.
Miami has covered just one of their last nine road games.
The Lakers have covered seven of the last 10 in this series.
GAME SUMMARY:
The Lakers look to win their 10th straight game and remain
atop the West when they host the league-worst Miami Heat,
who are coming off their first victory in a month.
PREDICTION:
Lakers and Miami over the total
Miami Heat (10-45) at L.A. Lakers Lakers (40-17)
LA is -13.5 and the total is 209 points
TRENDS:
The Lakers are 37-19 against the pointspread this season.
Miami has covered just one of their last nine road games.
The Lakers have covered seven of the last 10 in this series.
GAME SUMMARY:
The Lakers look to win their 10th straight game and remain
atop the West when they host the league-worst Miami Heat,
who are coming off their first victory in a month.
PREDICTION:
Lakers and Miami over the total
Northcoast Sports Community Line
Northcoast Sports Community Line
MTI 4* Dallas
Accupicks 4* Wright St.
Northcoast Sports Community Line
MTI 4* Dallas
Accupicks 4* Wright St.
**** MY PLAYS ****
(7*) BUTLER -12
(7*) UCLA -6-
(7*) MOREHEAD ST -2
(7*) NOTRE DAME +7-
(6*) N TEXAS +1
---NBA-------
(6*) BUCKS / NETS: UNDER 198
GOOD LUCK!!
(7*) BUTLER -12
(7*) UCLA -6-
(7*) MOREHEAD ST -2
(7*) NOTRE DAME +7-
(6*) N TEXAS +1
---NBA-------
(6*) BUCKS / NETS: UNDER 198
GOOD LUCK!!
Mike Stone's 1000 unit play...
Mike Stone's 1000 unit play...
Does anyone have Mike Stone's 1000 unit play tonight?
1000 unit
SMART SHARP SIDE
College Basketball
LOCK OF THE YEAR#3
Mike Stone's 1000 unit play...
Does anyone have Mike Stone's 1000 unit play tonight?
1000 unit
SMART SHARP SIDE
College Basketball
LOCK OF THE YEAR#3
THANK YOU TO SNIPER1 FOR PUTTING THIS TOGETHER- THANX FOR ALL THE HARD WORK
IT WOULB BE LOT EASIER HERE IF PEOPLE WOULD HELP OUT ONCE IN WHILE ISTEAD OF HAVING 4-5 PEOPLE DO ALL THE WORK!!!!!
---NCAA------------------
ARIZONA - 7 USC - 2
LOUISVILLE- 5 ND - 5
BUTLER -2 WRIGHT ST - 7
WAKE- 2 MD- 5
ARIZ ST- 2 UCLA - 3
ARK LR- 2 DENVER- 0
EKU- 1 AUSTIN PEAY- 0
HAWAII - 2 IDAHO ST- 1
SAN JOSE ST- 2 BOISE ST- 3
CAL- 1 WAZZOU- 1
VALPO - 1 DETROIT- 0
NEVADA- 1 NMST - 0
TENN TECH- 1 MURRAY ST- 0
UNC GREEN- 0 CHATTANOOGA - 0
UWISC- MIL- 0 LOYOLA,ILL- 0
U-LA LAF- 0 NO TEXAS- 1
WISCONSIN- 3 MICH ST- 3
ST, JOE- 1 ST.LOUIS- 0
CHARLESTON- 1 GA. SOUTHERN -3
SEMO. ST.- 0 SAMFORD- 0
STANFORD- 2 WASHINGTON - 1
FURMAN- 1 CITADEL- 0
ARK LR- 1 DENVER- 0
MOREHEAD ST- 1 TENN ST- 0
NBA
SAN ANTONIO- 3 DALLAS- 3
LA LAKERS- 3 MIAMI- 2
NJ NETS- 3 MILW - 2
NHL
RANGERS- 1 HURRICANES- 0
FLYERS- 1 OTTAWA- 0
IT WOULB BE LOT EASIER HERE IF PEOPLE WOULD HELP OUT ONCE IN WHILE ISTEAD OF HAVING 4-5 PEOPLE DO ALL THE WORK!!!!!
---NCAA------------------
ARIZONA - 7 USC - 2
LOUISVILLE- 5 ND - 5
BUTLER -2 WRIGHT ST - 7
WAKE- 2 MD- 5
ARIZ ST- 2 UCLA - 3
ARK LR- 2 DENVER- 0
EKU- 1 AUSTIN PEAY- 0
HAWAII - 2 IDAHO ST- 1
SAN JOSE ST- 2 BOISE ST- 3
CAL- 1 WAZZOU- 1
VALPO - 1 DETROIT- 0
NEVADA- 1 NMST - 0
TENN TECH- 1 MURRAY ST- 0
UNC GREEN- 0 CHATTANOOGA - 0
UWISC- MIL- 0 LOYOLA,ILL- 0
U-LA LAF- 0 NO TEXAS- 1
WISCONSIN- 3 MICH ST- 3
ST, JOE- 1 ST.LOUIS- 0
CHARLESTON- 1 GA. SOUTHERN -3
SEMO. ST.- 0 SAMFORD- 0
STANFORD- 2 WASHINGTON - 1
FURMAN- 1 CITADEL- 0
ARK LR- 1 DENVER- 0
MOREHEAD ST- 1 TENN ST- 0
NBA
SAN ANTONIO- 3 DALLAS- 3
LA LAKERS- 3 MIAMI- 2
NJ NETS- 3 MILW - 2
NHL
RANGERS- 1 HURRICANES- 0
FLYERS- 1 OTTAWA- 0
