INDIAN COWBOY
Furman vs Citadel
Play: Citadel +1.5
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Citadel +1.5 Yes, I'm aware that I'm placing a wager on the Shitadel, but I'm looking forward to it as they are in a great spot today. The Citadel as I noted in today's research are a top 330 team, but have no fear Furman is a top 320 team and on the road Furman is actually about 10 slots lower than the Citadel. Although the Citadel has lost consistently this year, they have played some very close games with some relatively tough teams and this is a chance where they can defeat a team that they nearly defeated earlier this year losing 51-53. Will home court, revenge and the fact this team is playing better of late make the difference? I believe so. In fact, I believe the public is likely to get buried in this game as they are favoring So what Furman has a few more wins - that is irrelevant in the Southern conference. The Citadel comes off a 19 point road loss to Western Carolina and are looking for a big bounce-back win at home. How have they done against other top 300 ranked teams? Well, this team defeated top 275 Western Carolina at home and beat Charleston Southern at home. In fact, they have played a starkly tougher schedule this year which is why they have won just a few games - heck, this team lost by 7 points to Chattanooga. In short, I like the fact this team lost by 19 to Western Carolina on the road - it was a revenge game for Western Carolina as Citadel had beaten them at home, this team has won both times they have faced similar competition at home such as Furman, have been playing very well lately with close losses at home to better teams than Furman and have revenge. I have to have multiple reasons to make my limited selections and this fits the criteria as I've explained above, which is probably why I have this game and the one above over 60% significance (only choosing plays that are over 60% sig now - reduced plays, but likely better winning %). Citadel has covered their last 5 home games and have covered 8 of their last 11 ballgames in the Southern Conference.
PLAY OF THE DAY
St. Louis vs St. Joesephs
Play: St. Josephs -11.5 (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: St. Josephs -11.5 (POD) Yesterday is a perfect example of reducing plays, now 12-2 on 5* selections, but the Pacers, the tertiary play falls short, the under falls just short as well. Only down a small amount in units yesterday, but speaking frankly to you as a client, it's still a small loss in units - around -1.6 units. Is that a lot? no. But, it can add up especially over the course of the month. So, I am going to stick with the reduced plays and only play selections that are over 60% significant on my spreadsheet - in this case, it would have just been New York from yesterday. For example, I have a considerable leans on Louisville, the Spurs and Detroit over Valpo tomorrow - but all fall within that 55% to 59% range. I am very frank with my clients, so I am speaking to you in the exact terms in what I face my selections with. So, the only 2 plays that are over 60% in significance today are St. Josephs and Citadel - with Citadel at 60% sig and St. Josephs at 62% sig. So, those are the only two I am playing today despite wanting to make one of the three mentioned leans above a play. I believe this will increase the winning % and units in the long haul. ^^^^A very nice spot here for St. Joseph as they play a team that they lost to on the road by 73-62 last year - a game that St. Louis was actually under dogged by 7 points. These 2 teams had met 2 previous times and St. Josephs won by 15 and 19 in last year's 2 ballgames. St. Louis is a decent top 125 team but they face a St. Josephs team that is a top 50 team. Let me give you some of St. Louis's road games thus far this year (they are ranked top 150 on the road by the way): losing 40 to 81 top 40 Kent on the road, losing 39 to 61 to Boston College who is a top 125 school, losing 20-49 to George Washington (no, that is not a typo) who is a top 175 school, this team did beat top 175 La Salle on the road, but then followed that up with a 36-63 loss to Dayton who is a top 100 team, they played admirably at Umass and lost 77-88 by 11 points and failed to cover and come off a road loss to Charlotte. This team is likely to play a bit better, but their trouble on the road scoring, the revenge factor for St. Josephs, the fact that St. Josephs is about a 100 points higher given the home court advantage in the power rankings and St. Josephs beat Villanova by 22 and Richmond who is a top 125 team (ST.. Louis is a top 100) by 18, I think St. Josephs has a strong chance of covering today. St. Louis is 1-6 ATS against teams with a winning % of greater than 60% meaning that they are struggling to compete against the better teams in the league and the St. Joseph Hawks are 5-0 ATS when facing a team with a 40% winning road percentage or worse - meaning they are beating the poor road teams significantly at home.
