Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Pittsburgh
2. 50,000♦ Wis.-Green Bay
3. 50,000♦ Rhode Island
1. Pittsburgh- Let's all be thankful that Huggins and his Mountaineers took out their frustrations at Providence Saturday, because their home loss to Cincinnati nearly drained all the value out of this game. But, with a nice road win over the Friars under their belt, now there's excellent value in siding with the Panthers tonight at home.
While inconsistency has plagued this Pitt team, they've been on a pretty consistent pattern: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss... You get the idea. So what happens? They lose, they refocus, and they win, in a very simplistic nutshell. Look guys, there's no doubt they battled at Connecticut for 40 minutes in their last game and lost. And there's equally no doubt in my mind that they'll bounce back hard tonight in front of their home fans.
Biggest problem for the Mountaineers is containing the rugged Pittsburgh frontline, led by forwards Sam Young and DeJuan Blair. Mountaineers built their frontcourt around 3-point shooting, which obviously leaves something to be said for interior toughness. That's a big reason we still see the Huggins use the 1-3-1 zone at times, despite his penchant for hardcore man-to-man defense. Note that West Virginia is allowing opponents to shoot 44% when they travel this season, a big jump up from their 40% season average.
While some critics believe the Panthers are at a disadvantage in the backcourt, I disagree wholeheartedly. True, both Benjamin and Ramon struggled at UCONN, but was that really a surprise? Two reserve guards thrust into starting positions, struggling in tough road game at UCONN?! Of course they'll do better back in the friendly confines of home. In fact, look for them to be extremely motivated after being invisible in Saturday's game.
Afer consecutive home losses, the Mountaineers gave everything they had at Providence... Question is: What does that leave for this critical conference match up in seriously hostile territory? Pittsburgh is 12-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season, and coming off a tough loss at UCONN, there's more than enough motivation to go around. In the end, the Panthers ride their edge in the paint to victory, as West Virginia falls flat after an emotional win at Providence Saturday.
Take Pittsburgh comfortably over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Wis.-Green Bay- This is a tough spot for Valparaiso, because not only are they playing relatively average basketball right now, but they also know the Phoenix have been waiting for another crack at them since their last meeting. Last time they played, the Phoenix were up 36-35 at halftime at Valpraiso, then proceeded to blow their chances by falling asleep on defense, losing 82-73. This time around, things will be different...
First of all, there's no way the Crusaders get even near 82 points in Green Bay, the Phoenix are allowing just 60 ppg on 37% shooting there this season. They locked down a much improved Cleveland State team to just 50 points there January 24th, and held Youngstown State to just 58 in their last home game. More of the same tonight, as the Phoenix will not allow the kind of defensive lapses they had in their last meeting happen tonight.
Second, its clear the Crusaders have no answer for F Mike Schachtner, who dropped 34 points them on 12 of 17 shooting in their first meeting. With F Terry Evans coming on of late (16 ppg L2 games), the Phoenix have a nice 1-2 punch in the frontcourt that the Crusaders simply cannot stop.
Finally, the problem for the Crusaders is lately their jump shot haven't been falling, which is the risk you run when you're a guard-heavy perimeter-oriented team. Over their last 5 games, they're averaging 64 ppg on 42% shooting, and it won't get any easier on the road against a very motivated Wis.-Green Bay defense.
Bottom line, oddsmakers are seriously overestimating Valparaiso ability to keep this game competitive against a highly-motivated Phoenix team with several strong match up edges. If the Crusaders were playing well, maybe then we could consider them under the circumstances. But right now, they're in no condition to be coming into Wis.Green Bay's house as slight underdogs, plain and simple. The Phoenix roll in this one!
Take Wis.-Green Bay comfortably over Valparaiso in this Horizon League match up.
3. Rhode Island- Two teams that can burn up the scoreboard in a hurry meet tonight in Amherst... So why the Rams? Several strong factors, but none bigger than the debacle of last year's meeting, where UMASS crushed the Rams 77-55, in one of the more embarrassing games for Rhode Island in recent memory.
Rams are a much better team this year, as Will Daniels and company are a year older and wiser. They've not only become more efficient on offense, but the Rams defense over their last 5 games has really come together, allowing 69 ppg on 43% shooting. After a disappointing loss at Saint Louis, the Rams have reeled off 4 straight wins, but this is the game that they've circled since last season, and it'll show with their effort and energy on the court tonight.
Match ups are relatively even, as you give the slight edge to the Minutemen in the backcourt with Forbes and Harris, but make no mistake, Bitee is the best point guard on the floor (110 assists to 40 turnovers 50% from 3-point), while Baron would score just as much as Forbes if he were the featured player.
That brings me to my biggest point, the fact the Rams frontcourt is playing excellent basketball. I know what you're saying: "But Will Daniels only had 4 points in 17 minutes against Dayton!" Which is true, but the Rams could afford that with MBang (21 points 8 boards) Seawright (11 points 5 boards) and Ulmer (11 points 9 boards) all having strong games. Its that kind of balance along the frontcourt that makes this Rams team so dangerous, as the Minutemen don't have the frontline talent to match up.
Bottom line, this is a statement game for the Rams, who viewed their loss on this court last year as a real stain on their season. This time around the Rams come out firing, using their motivation and edges in the frontcourt and at the point guard position to keep their high-octane offense rolling. This one comes down to the waning minutes, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Rams win outright here.
Take Rhode Island plus the points over Massachusetts in this A-10 showdown.
