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INDIAN COWBOY
Sacremento State +2 (POD)
Promos: 3-0 Yesterday. Winning 22 of 34 days (64% +24 Units), winning 21 of 31 days in January, 26 of 41 POD Winners (62%) of late.
I will be fast asleep when this game goes off, but I look for Sac State to make the outright upset here. I am well aware that Sac has won just 2 games but keep in mind although they are outside of a top 300 team and everyone thinks they lose today, there is a reason why this line is low. Sac State's 2 wins come against top 250 and top 175 teams at home in Montana State and Northern Colorado. What is Eastern Washington in my ranking scale? Top 300. This team has come so close to beating some of the better teams in the conference and their close game are starting to translate into wins lately. Look at it this way, although Sacremento State has just 2 wins overall and they both are at home, Eastern Washington has just 1 win on the road as they are 1-9. Eastern Washington is a sound team that has lost many close games but they also lost to Idaho who is a top 320 team on the road similar to Sacremento State. This team also beat Sac State 76-52 last time out and I expect Sacremento State to get their 3rd win today over a top 300 team as the home team with revenge that is playing better of late gets the edge in my book. The Hornets of Sac State are 6-1 ATS as a small underdog and 5-0 ATS against teams with a road winning % of less than .400 - meaning that they cover against teams that are poor on the road as the home court advantage/split is an important factor.
Murray State +1.5
I know we are taking some very interesting teams today but I look the Racers here for several reasons. One, they have revenge from losing to Eastern Kentucky at home earlier in conference play by a score of 58-59 back on December 5th. Well, much has changed since then. Murray State has quietly won their last 7 of 9 ballgames and are a different team than the one that lost by 1 point at home to Eastern Kentucky. Murray State is also a well coached team that was young to start the season but has seasoned as it has gone on. Murray State lost to one of the best teams in their conference in Austin Peay by just 5 points despite Austin Peay having revenge as Murray State beat them earlier in the year and that shows a lot. I think this time, this team wins on the road and redeems themselves and gets their revenge. This team is also on a strong up-tick as compared to Eastern Kentucky who although has won 3 straight games on the road and return home, they were all against teams outside the top 275, now, they have to play a team that is essentially in the top 200 at home. EKentucky has lost to top 200 teams at home including Samford and Tennessee Tech and they are likely to lose here straight up at home as well. The Colonels are 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning % greater than 60% meaning that they struggle against the better teams in the league and the Racers are 5-2 ATS overall of late.
Tennessee State +2
This is third favorite pick today as it is very ballsy, but it makes sense for quite a few reasons. Tennessee State hits the road to face the rival Skyhawks of Tennessee Martin today. Tennessee State lost by just 1 point at home to this team by a score of 74-75 last time they played and it is very possible for Tennessee State to win this game outright or simply fall within the cover. Does it not seem odd to you that you have a team that in State that lost to Martin at home and yet the line is just at +2 again? When you wager on small conferences, it is all about revenge. Either it be the southern conference or the Atlantic Sun, revenge is a key factor. I want to take you back to some of Tennessee State's wins this year and they include a win over Illinois on the road who is a top 125 team, they lost to Vandy by 9 on the road, they lost to Indiana 12 on the road, they lost by a bucket to top 100 Akron in neutral footing, they were toe to toe with Georgia Tech in the first game of the seaon before falling short late, they recently beat a similarly ranked Tennessee Tech team on the road and come off a 1 point loss to Austin Peay on the road who is a very good top 200 team. This team has not lost 3 ballgames in a row since conference play started as losing 3 in a row to some of the top teams in the nation is acceptable such as Akron, Tech, Illinois, Indiana and Vanderbilt - this is how these schools fund their programs, by playing big schools and this team played them well, and beating Illinois in the process. I think the Tennessee State Tigers hang tough here and get the win as Tennessee Martin although is home, comes off a big win over SE Missouri State on the road and this team recently lost to Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Tech at home as they have yet to put back to back home victories together. State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 as underdogs and Martin is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home
